Domenic Lanza, Author at River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Middle Relievers

December 14, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Winter Meetings came and went, and so, too, did a few of the potential bullpen options. The Yankees are still on the hunt for a couple of relievers to replace the free agent duo of Zach Britton and David Robertson – both of whom are still available as of this writing, and both of whom were written about in our season reviews – and, as per Brian Cashman himself, it remains a priority. I’ve already written about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia (who later signed with the Mets for 3-years, $30 MM), Cody Allen, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson. With the Yankees potential budget restrictions being what they are (or might be), I’ll pivot to some middle relief options to bolster the … well … middle innings.

Brad Brach

2018 Stats – 62.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 46.0 GB%, 3.59 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Yankees fans are familiar with Brach, who pitched for the Orioles from 2014 through this past trade deadline, and has faced the good guys 25 times in his career. He wasn’t terribly effective, though, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP – but I digress. Brach has been a rock-solid reliever for seven years now, pitching to a 3.05 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 449 IP since coming to the majors for good in 2012; and that includes a 2.99 ERA (140 ERA+) in 327.2 IP in the AL East. And that’s something that we’ve seen the Yankees value in the past, notably with the aforementioned Happ.

It is worth exploring why Brach pitched so poorly with the Orioles last year, though. His overall numbers were good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Consider his pre- and post-trade numbers:

Orioles – 39.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 4.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP
Braves – 23.2 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, 45.1 GB%, 1.52 ERA, 3.12 FIP

What the heck happened? The easiest explanation is that the Orioles are awful, and everyone on the team felt it. Their porous defense led to a .371 BABIP when Brach was on the mound (his career BABIP is .284), and his batted-ball profile doesn’t suggest that he was giving up better contact than before. His hard-hit percentage was up a bit – but his soft-hit percentage was, too. His HR/9 (0.92) and HR/FB (10.0%) were in-line with career norms, as well. So what about his velocity?

Brach’s fastball did tick down this year, particularly in the first half. It returned to normal after the trade, though, which may suggest any number of things. A hidden injury? A slump? The malaise of being an Oriole? Who knows. But he returned to form with Atlanta, much as Britton did with the Yankees. I don’t want to discount the potential of a slip in velocity going forward, though, as Brach will be 33 shortly after opening day. But I think he’s in-line for a bounceback.

MLBTR forecasts a 2-year, $12 MM deal for Brach, and that seems reasonable to me. He has some closer experience, filling in for Britton in 2017 and part of 2018, but he’s largely been a middle reliever or set-up man otherwise, and I suspect that’s how teams view him. And, at that cost, I think he makes quite a bit of sense for the Yankees.

Oliver Perez

2018 Stats – 32.1 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 41.2 GB%, 1.39 ERA, 1.74 FIP

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: Perez is a 37-year-old journeyman that had to wait until June to find a team because he was ineffective at best in 2016 and 2017, and his best role is as a lefty specialist. And, yes, 2018 was far and away his best season.

Now, that being said: Perez was an excellent specialist last year. He held lefties to a .191/.214/.274 slash line, which is actually a tick better than he was prior to his two-years of struggle (lefties hit .185/.235/.283 against him in 2015, for example). And he was solid against lefties in those interim years, too; the greatest issue was that he faced a fair amount of righties, and they have murdered him over the last several years. He’s a specialist, through and through.

So is there anything that supports this being for real? Yes, actually: his pitch selection.

Perez all but eliminated his sinker (his worst pitch by a considerable margin in 2016 and 2017) in favor of more four-seamers and more sliders, and it paid dividends. Perhaps due to his focusing on two pitches instead of three, the spin rates on his four-seamer (from 2099 RPM to 2156) and slider (2110 to 2308) increased markedly, and both were more difficult for hitters to square-up as a result. The combination of pitch selection and those pitches having more movement suggests that this wasn’t just luck; and it may even portend a reason to expect something closer to vintage Perez in 2019.

There aren’t really any contract predictions out there for Perez, and I suspect that his market won’t be terribly hot anytime soon. But if the Yankees do turn to a specialist, that lack of interest could result in a bargain.

Sergio Romo

2018 Stats – 67.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP

Romo has long been a standard-bearer for the slider, with the offering representing better than half of all of his pitches in seven of his last eight seasons. And that actually undersells his reliance on the pitch to a degree – just take a look:

The fact that batters have hit just .173 against Romo’s slider over his eleven year career is astounding, to say the least. And, despite the .240 batting average against it in 2018, it was largely more of the same – until batters teed off on it to the tune of a .375 average in his horrific September. And September really skewed everything:

Pre-September – 58.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 39.9 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.30 FIP
September – 9.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 19.4 GB%, 10.00 ERA, 8.83 FIP

Ouch. Romo’s effectiveness dropped off across the board, and it seemed as though every batted ball was hit in the air; and the result of that was five home runs allowed in those nine innings. He had his ups and downs throughout the season, but he has never been as bad as he was in September.

Romo’s anti-fastball approach and year and a half of (mostly) very good performance in the AL East makes him appealing to some extent; and the fact that his market isn’t projected to be all that large helps, too. However, he’ll be 36 in March, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. And, even with his great slider, it’s hard for me to see a RHP succeeding in Yankee Stadium with a fastball that sits between 87 and 88 MPH, as his has for the last three years.

As a result of this, I wouldn’t say that Romo’s a straight-up no for me – but his name value and upside doesn’t quite jibe with the reality of the Yankees situation.

Tony Sipp

2018 Stats – 38.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 1.86 ERA, 2.41 FIP

In terms of their story arcs over the last few years, Sipp and Perez are quite similar. Sipp never struggled to find a job due to his contract with the Astros, but he bounced back from abysmal 2016 and 2017 seasons to be as dominant as ever (if not more so) in his role in 2018.

From 2011 through 2015, Sipp held lefties to a .210/.283/.369 slash line; in 2018, it was .188/.263/.294. In between, lefties hit .264/.335/.540. And, on the off-chance that this needs to be said, that’s simply unacceptable.

So what can we offer in the way of an explanation? A reappearance/rediscovery of velocity may’ve helped:

Sipp’s velocity was dipped noticeably in 2016 and 2017, and regained nearly a full MPH last season. Moreover, he had largely shelved his four-seamer in 2016 and 2017 (roughly 35.7% of his offerings), before going back to it (53.3%) in 2018. It’s worth noting that his fastball has been a plus offering (by FanGraphs’s run values) throughout his career, but was deep into the red in 2016 and 2017. The spin rate remained steady, per Statcast, so maybe it did just come down to velocity.

Regardless, Sipp is another reliever that doesn’t figure to be in big-time demand. If the Yankees want a lefty specialist, Sipp fits the bill. I do think I’d prefer Perez, though, if only because his pitches – in terms of velocity and spin – jump off the page more.

Joakim Soria

2018 Stats – 60.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 35.7 GB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.44 FIP

Soria is a name that is brought up around every Rule 5 Draft, as one of the biggest success stories from what has largely been an uneventful process. The Royals snagged him from the Padres organization way back in 2006, and he has gone on to rack-up 634.1 innings of 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) with 220 saves and great peripherals over an eleven year career.

That was a long time ago, though, and Soria is entering his age-35 season. So what sort of pitcher is he now? As you can see from the numbers above, Soria was excellent last year; both his strikeout and walk rates were better than his career norms, and comfortably better than league-average.

And that’s largely who Soria has been over the last several years. 2016 was his worst year, when he posted a 4.05 ERA (4.36 FIP) for the Royals – but he bounced back nicely in 2017 (3.70 ERA and 2.23 FIP), and was even better last year. The key for him is changing arm slots and speeds and keeping batters off-balance, and it has worked far more often than not. And despite his age and mileage, his velocity has remained steady:

It’s kind of beautiful, isn’t it?

Soria’s also the rare reliever that mixes in more than two pitches. He was a fastball-heavy guy in 2018 (66.4%), but he threw his change-up, slider, and curve right around 10% of the time apiece. It’s enough to keep hitters guessing and, along with his arm slots, that’s probably why each pitch had at least a 25% whiff per swing rate.

MLBTR projects a 2-year, $18 MM deal for Soria, and I can definitely see that happening. In fact, I could see him doing a bit better now that I’ve dug into his numbers a bit more. And at 2-years, $18 MM, I’d be pleased to see him in pinstripes. He’s still a stud.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Reclamation Projects

December 11, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

As we enter the Winter Meetings, the Yankees are still searching for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson. I previously wrote about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, and Adam Ottavino. Today I’m going to shift gears a bit, and focus on pitchers that had substandard years without the benefit – if you can call it that – of an injury explanation.

Cody Allen

2018 Stats – 67.0 IP, 27.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 30.0 GB%, 4.70 ERA, 4.56 FIP

Allen was somewhat quietly an excellent reliever for five straight years, pitching to a 2.59 ERA (163 ERA+) along with 32.4% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 344.2 IP between 2013 and 2017. He served as Cleveland’s closer for four of those seasons, too, holding onto the role even as Andrew Miller came into the fold. In that time, Allen was the 9th most valuable reliever in the game by fWAR, and 12th by WPA. He may not have had the flash or name value of the pitchers around him, but he was steadily great, and occasionally brilliant.

And then, in his age-29 season, he had the worst year of his career. His strikeout and walk rates were his worst since his 29.0 IP debut in 2012, and his GB%, ERA, and FIP were the worst of his career. Allen had quietly been susceptible to the longball for a couple of years, but it got out of hand in 2018 as his HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.48. His 12.8% HR/FB wasn’t too out of hand, but allowing 50.6% of all batted balls to be put into the air doesn’t jibe too well with that.

So what the heck happened? His fastball and curveball velocity, which had been steadily slipping since 2015, dropped by about half a tick, which may well have played a part:

The spin on both of his offerings dropped from 2017 to 2018, as well. Allen’s fastball checked-in at 2506 RPM in 2017, and 2445 RPM in 2018; for his curveball, those numbers were 2617 and 2575. For a pitcher who relies on two pitches, it’s easy to imagine that losing a bit of heat and a bit of spin could have horrendous results – and that manifested last year, as Allen allowed a much higher exit velocity (up 4.1 MPH) and launch angle (up 1.6 degrees) in 2018.

Are there any positives to be gleaned from his 2018, though? No; not really, at least. His numbers were bad in every month but April, and he was shelled in both of his playoff outings against the Astros (54.00 ERA – not a typo – in 1 IP). Unless Allen was hurt at the end of April and some nagging injury kept him down for the rest of the year, this has all of the makings of a straight-up bad year for the now 30-year-old. And it couldn’t have been more poorly-timed for him.

MLBTR (two years, $16 MM) and FanGraphs (two years, $18 MM) basically agree on the sort of contract Allen will sign this off-season. Cleveland didn’t extend the QO, so there’s no additional cost beyond the dollars and cents.

Allen is an interesting case, given that he was so good for so long, which isn’t terribly common for relievers. His whole career has been in the AL, and he was incredibly effective in the playoffs prior to this year, too. If he had hit the free agent market after 2017, Allen may well be looking at a huge payday. As it stands, he might have to settle for something of a pillow contract. I would be hesitant to give him two years, as relievers do have a nasty tendency to abruptly fall apart, but I would be fine with a one-year deal.

Greg Holland

2018 Stats – 46.1 IP, 22.2 K%, 15.1 BB%, 40.0 GB%, 4.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP

Holland was arguably the best reliever in baseball from 2011 through 2014, pitching to a 1.86 ERA (220 ERA+) in 256.1 IP in the regular season, and a ludicrous 0.82 ERA in 11 postseason innings. He was a mere mortal in 2015, however, with a 3.83 ERA (110 ERA+); and his season ended on September 22 of that year, when the team announced he needed Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of 2016, and was a man without a team for that entire year.

In January of 2017, Holland was healthy and ready to go, and he signed a one-year deal with the Rockies. It was a strange choice for a pitcher hoping to rebuild his value, but he did quite well, pitching to a 3.61 ERA (140 ERA+) in 57.1 IP, with a strong 29.8 K%. The walks were high (11.1%), but, for a guy in a bad pitching environment with a year’s worth of rust, that was more than forgivable. Holland nevertheless had to settle for another one-year deal for the 2018 season. This time, the Cardinals came calling – but not until March 31. What a weird off-season 2017-18 was. But I digress.

As you can see from the numbers above, Holland was not good on the whole of 2018. However, it was a tale of two seasons. You see, Holland was released by the Cardinals on August 1, and was scooped up by the Nationals within the week. His splits:

Cardinals – 25.0 IP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 7.92 ERA, 4.56 FIP
Nationals – 21.1 IP, 31.3 K%, 12.5 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 0.84 ERA, 2.97 FIP

Starting his season so late may well have played a role in Holland’s pre-trade struggles, but did anything else change? He did spend a bit over three weeks on the DL with a hip impingement in late-May and early-June – an injury which had bothered him for a couple of weeks prior – which explains a bit. However, everything else is relatively consistent from month to month; his pitch distribution, his velocity, his spin rate, etc. Could it have been a matter of rust and a nagging injury? That seems reasonable, right?

Holland, who turned 33 a few weeks ago, has seen his velocity dip over time, though. And he’s at an age where we shouldn’t expect that to rebound.

His spin rates actually improved across the board last year, relative to 2017, so there’s still a bit of upside in his offerings. At the very least, this is not a matter of his pitches slipping across the board as we saw with Allen.

Neither MLBTR nor FanGraphs have Holland among their top-fifty free agents, so there’s no contract prediction to be had. However, given his back-to-back one-year deals, his career-worst 2018, and his age, it stands to reason that he could be had on a one-year deal.

And, when it comes to a one-year deal, I’d be all-in on Holland. I wouldn’t expect his 2011-2014 greatness, nor would I count on him pitching as well as he did for the Nationals last year – but there’s enough there to suggest that he’s not quite done, and that his Cardinals struggles are not the new normal.

Ryan Madson

2018 Stats – 52.2 IP, 23.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 42.6 GB%, 5.47 ERA, 3.98 FIP

Why is a 38-year-old reliever that had a 5.47 ERA last year on this list? There are reclamation projects, and there are lost causes, right? Maybe. Or maybe there’s a bit more to Madson’s 2018 season than meets the eye.

In late October, the Washington Post reported that Madson had been dealing with low-back pain that radiated down his front leg throughout the season, and didn’t have it straightened-out until August, when he made adjustments to his delivery. And then the Dodgers overhauled his approach after acquiring him in an August deal from the Nationals, and it paid dividends.

Sure, Madson’s 6.48 ERA with the Dodgers looks ugly; but he had a 36.1 K% and a 2.8 BB%, and was largely done in by a ridiculous .429 BABIP. His 1.96 FIP in Dodger Blue tells a better story of how he was in those stretch-run appearances. The Dodgers leaned on Madson heavily in the playoffs, calling upon him 11 times, and he responded admirably, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP.

The Dodgers overhaul of Madson’s approach manifested in his pitch selection:

He basically shelved his four-seamer, which was his most hittable offering, and the whiffs returned. That’s the sort of thing that the Yankees coaching staff is all about – and Madson’s already had some success doing it. And, despite his age, velocity isn’t an issue:

As was the case with Holland, there aren’t many contract estimates out there for Madson. And why would there be? He’s a 38-year-old reliever, after all. But, given his apparent health, new approach, and still-strong velocity, he might just be a bargain on a one-year deal. And I would be happy to see that deal be with the Yankees … as long as he’s not the premier reliever signed this off-season.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Familia and Ottavino

December 10, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Yankees are looking for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson, and the market it flush with potentially appealing options. I recently wrote about Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller, both of whom are coming off of injury-abbreviated campaigns; today I’m going to discuss a couple of relievers coming off of more productive seasons in Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino.

Jeurys Familia

2018 Stats – 3.13 ERA, 27.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.3 GB%, 3.13 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Familia spent the first six and a half years of his big-league career as a Met, serving as the team’s closer from 2015 through the end of his New York tenure; he was dealt to the A’s at this past trade deadline, where he served as a high-leverage fireman instead of a traditional closer. And he excelled in both roles, maintaining above-average strikeout and groundball rates, and an average walk rate. None of his peripherals are particularly jaw-dropping, but there isn’t a glaring weakness in his profile, either.

The 29-year-old is essentially a sinker/slider pitcher, with those offerings representing around 80% of his overall pitches. He’ll also mix in a four-seamer and the occasional splitter (which is devastating, but has never represented more than 8% of his pitches in a year), depending on the handedness of the batter and what he’s feeling. And Familia throws everything hard:

Familia’s velocity has remained fairly steady from year-to-year. He’s lost about 1 MPH from his peak fastball velocity – but it was over the course of four years, so it’s not a terribly worrisome sign. And his sinker and slider are his go-to offerings anyway, and both of those have actually ticked up. We know that velocity can disappear rather suddenly, but there aren’t really any warning signs thus far.

It is worth noting that Familia has dealt with two injuries in his career, both of which required surgery. The first was a bone spur removed from his right elbow back in 2013, which kept him out for a few months. And the second was surgery to remove an arterial blood clot from his right shoulder in 2017, which sidelined him from mid-May through the end of August. Neither is necessarily predictive of future injury, but having surgery on your throwing elbow and throwing shoulder cannot be overlooked.

And, being as diplomatic as possible, there are potential character issues off the field, as well. Familia was suspended for the first 15 games of the 2017 season due to domestic violence accusations, and had to undergo at least twelve 90-minute counseling sessions. I do not want to editorialize something of this nature, so I will leave it at that.

So what will Familia cost? MLBTR predicts a 3-year, $33 MM deal, and FanGraphs similarly went with 3-years, $30 MM. Having been dealt mid-season, there are no draft pick considerations. He has that closer shine, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up with a deal in that range.

At that sort of price, I don’t think that Familia is a great fit for the Yankees. I’m all for the team spending big this off-season to capitalize on their window, but I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for someone that another team views as a closer. The Yankees are ostensibly looking for their third and fourth relievers, behind Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, which is somewhere between a luxury and a necessity; I see it as enough of the former that I wouldn’t go beyond two years for Familia. And his off the field issues make me a bit hesitant, as well.

Adam Ottavino

2018 Stats – 77.2 IP, 36.3 K%, 11.7 BB%, 43.0 GB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP

At first blush, those are some straight-up droolworthy numbers. A strikeout rate 14 full percentage points above league-average? A 2.43 ERA and 2.74 FIP in Coors?! That’s kind of bonkers, isn’t it? Even with the walks, you cannot help but be impressed with Ottavino.

A bit more digging, however, doesn’t leave you as enthusiastic about his merits. Here’s his 2017 line – 53.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 16.1 BB%, 37.2 GB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.16 FIP. That’s just about as bad as one can get, even with the comfortably above-average strikeout rate. In short, Ottavino was as bad in 2017 as he was awesome in 2018.

I have seen 2017 explained away, in part, by Ottavino’s Tommy John Surgery. However, that surgery came in 2015, and Ottavino returned in the Summer of 2016, showing little to no rust. If anything, you’d expect him to be even better in 2017 – not to post by far his worst season since his cup of coffee debut way back in 2010. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to have an uncommonly bad year; especially relievers, who are notoriously fickle. But it can’t be hand-waved, either.

There are signs that his 2018 wasn’t just random fluctuation, though. Ottavino essentially shelved his four-seamer this year, replacing it with sinkers and cutters:

And, like Familia, his high-end velocity has remained relatively steady, with the decline coming slowly:

And all of that was on purpose, as Ottavino explained to Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. The Brooklyn native worked out at a vacant commercial property in Manhattan throughout that off-season, utilizing Driveline tech to help him hone his craft. Put that all together and you have something of a career year. The big question, of course, is whether that’s maintainable.

Ottavino, unlike many Rockies pitchers, doesn’t show an appreciable home-road split on the mound. He was actually better in Coors in 2013 and 2018, and performed similarly in 2017. Escaping that park will undoubtedly be a plus, but there’s not necessarily a ton of hidden value there.

The biggest concern with Ottavino, at least to me, is his age. He turned 33 in November, and both MLBTR and FanGraphs project a 3-year, $30 MM deal (which MLBTR actually sees him signing with the Yankees). I can somewhat buy 2017 being an aberration, and I am on-board with him rebuilding himself in the 2017-18 off-season – but he’s at an age where regression can come abruptly and viciously.

Ottavino is an obvious fit for the Yankees, as a guy that racks-up strikeouts and lives in the area (and apparently loves it). I love his determination to rebuild himself after a horrific season, as well, and it’s a great sign that it worked so well. I’m hesitant about a longer deal at his age – but I prefer him to Familia. And, again, at two years I’m definitely in.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Herrera and Miller

December 6, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

A few weeks ago, Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman that the Yankees are looking to add two relievers this off-season. That makes quite a bit of sense, considering that two of the team’s biggest name relievers in Zach Britton and David Robertson hit the free agent market; moreover, the league-wide increase in reliance upon the bullpen all but began in New York, meaning this is nothing new. And, luckily, there are plenty of quality arms on the market to reinforce the arms at Aaron Boone’s disposal.

We will eventually get to the majority of the high-end relief options on the market (barring players signing before we have the chance to get to them), though we will avoid the players that are locks to secure a closing role and, therefore, closer money. And I’ll kick-start that effort today by taking a look at two of the highest-ceiling commodities on the market, that just so happened to battle injuries last year.

Kelvin Herrera

2018 Stats – 44.1 IP, 20.7 K%, 5.4 BB%, 35.6 GB%, 2.44 ERA, 3.95 FIP

The 28-year-old Herrera was a member of the vaunted Royals bullpen that helped them reach back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, throwing a combined 139.2 innings of 2.06 ERA ball in the regular season. And he was even better in the playoffs, pitching to a microscopic 1.26 ERA in 28.2 postseason innings. He hasn’t quite pitched at that level since, but a 3.18 ERA (138 ERA+) over the last three years is still quite good, to say the least.

Last season, however, was a tale of two seasons for Herrera, revolving around the mid-June deal that sent him from Kansas City to Washington. Take a look at his splits:

KC – 25.2 IP, 23.2 K%, 2.1 BB%, 37.1 GB%, 1.05 ERA, 2.69 FIP
WAS – 18.2 IP, 18.0 K%, 9.0 BB%, 33.9 GB%, 4.34 ERA, 5.68 FIP

That’s … not encouraging. Though, for better or worse, there is something of tangible reason for this drop in productivity. His velocity remained mostly steady, but did dip a bit post-trade:

And his release points were all over the place:

And we also know that he was battling an undisclosed shoulder injury – referred to as ‘tightness’ – whilst in our nation’s capital. It seems as if health was the issue.

Of course, the elephant in the room isn’t that he didn’t perform well with the Nationals; it’s that Herrera still isn’t completely healthy. His season ended in late-August due to a Lisfranc tear, and his timetable for return is up in the air. There are several reports out there saying that Herrera and his representatives expect him to be ready for the start of the season – but they kind of have to say that, right? The only real information that we have is that he started doing some light throwing the other day, courtesy of his Twitter feed:

??? some light toss today. pic.twitter.com/UY1vnYeW0Q

— Kelvin Herrera (@KelvinHerrera40) December 4, 2018

That’s encouraging, even if it’s off flat ground and at way less than maximum effort.

With all that in mind, what will he cost?

MLBTR projects a one-year, $9 MM pillow contract for Herrera; Jim Bowden predicts a similar deal, albeit for $11 MM. And, unless he proves to be completely healthy or teams believe that he’ll be ready for a full Spring Training, I think that makes sense. And he wasn’t eligible for the qualifying offer due to being dealt in-season, so there’s no hidden cost, either.

So does he make sense for the Yankees? I think so, especially if it’s a one-year deal. He has a terrific track record, and he was great before his shoulder started barking last year. The flyball tendencies that he developed in 2018 aren’t great – but it didn’t hurt Chad Green or Jonathan Holder or Adam Warren last year. A healthy Herrera should be expected to thrive in any environment.

Andrew Miller

2018 Stats – 34.0 IP, 29.2 K%, 10.4 BB%, 47.7 GB%, 4.24 ERA, 3.51 FIP

On the off-chance that you need a refresher, Miller was arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball from 2013 through 2017, pitching to a 1.82 ERA (234 ERA+) in 291.2 IP. That 1.82 ERA ranked third among all relievers in baseball in that stretch, and his 291.2 IP ranked 30th. Add in a ludicrous 41.1 K% (2nd) and 33.7 K-BB% (2nd), and … well … what more needs to be said?

Unfortunately, Miller was awfully mortal in 2018. And it was largely due to the fact that he hit the disabled list three times – once with a hamstring strain, then with inflammation in his right knee, and then a left shoulder impingement. None of those are encouraging for any pitcher, yet all feel even more worrisome for a gigantic pitcher that’ll turn 34 in May.

You can see the impact of the injuries and/or age on his velocity:

This graph captures his career since shifting to the bullpen full-time in 2012. His fastball and slider has been relatively steady over the last few years, and then dropped off by nearly a full tick in 2018. That’s not uncommon for a pitcher entering his mid-30s, nor is it the sort of drop-off that makes him unpitchable – especially as a southpaw. It’s still not something that you ever want to see, though, particularly in an abrupt manner.

There is a silver lining in the form of his pre-injury performance, though. It was an incredibly small sample size, but Miller posted the following line before tweaking his hamstring: 10 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 4 BB (1 IBB), 17 K. Moreover, his velocity was at its high point of the season, which isn’t too common. The walks are high, but outside of that he looked like prime Miller.

It’s improbable that the team that signs Miller will see his prime form, but I do think that there enough positive signs to suggest that he will be better than he was last year. His strikeout rate was still comfortably above average, as was his groundball rate, and he was healthy and effective after returning from his shoulder injury. And, unlike Herrera, he healthy at this point in time.

There’s more of a disconnect with projections of Miller’s contract as a result of all of this. MLBTR sees him garnering a 3-year, $27 MM deal, whereas Bowden predicts a one-year, $10 MM pillow contract. I’d love the latter; I’m not too sure how I feel about the former. Cleveland didn’t extend Miller the qualifying offer, so his sole cost will be straight cash.

I think Miller makes more sense for the Yankees, due to the greater certainty of his current health, his familiarity with the park and organization, and his handedness. But I don’t think a 3-year deal makes a tremendous amount of sense, given the team’s budget (whatever it may be) and the glut of solid relievers on the market. One year? I’m all-in. Two years? I’m a bit apprehensive, but I’d probably do it. Three years? Only if that last year is a team or vesting option. And that’s tough for me to say, as Miller remains one of my favorite pitchers in the game.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Non-Tendered Players

December 3, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

With Friday’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players firmly in the rearview mirror, a slew of viable free agents have hit the market. There are no stars, to be sure, but there’s a little bit of everything to be had amongst the forty-plus players that are now available for nothing more than cash. With that in mind, I will profile some of the players that could conceivably make sense for the Yankees, based upon their current stated and positional needs. And, given just how many names there are on this list, I decided to put them in alphabetical order instead of trying to sort by preference.

Please note that I’m providing the arbitration projection for each player in place of a salary estimate. The reason for this is that I’m operating under the assumption that many of these players were shopped in the hopes of getting something in return, but they couldn’t find any takers – so none of these guys are likely to start a bidding war, and will likely earn a bit less than they would’ve through arbitration.

Luis Avilan, LHRP

The rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – 45.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.77 ERA, 3.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Avilan has been a relatively consistent lefty-specialist for seven years now, holding LHH to a sub-.700 OPS in six of those years. Same-handed hitters hit just .217 against him last year, which is right in-line with his career norm of .210. He’s not flashy, and he’s a liability against righties – but he could more than adequately fill a role in any team’s bullpen. The only red flag here is his velocity, which slipped by over 1 MPH in 2018; lefty specialists aren’t always known for their stuff, but a dip of that magnitude is never a good sign.

Whether Avilan makes sense for the Yankees is kind of up in the air, as is the case with every other reliever on this list. If the team wants to strengthen its bullpen, there are certainly better options out there; but, if there’s a budget in-play, Avilan is a solid option.

Tim Beckham, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – .230/.287/.374, 12 HR, 1 SB, 79 wRC+ in 402 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Beckham will never overcome the bust label that has been firmly affixed for half a decade now, but he was a solid utility infielder in 2016 and 2017. He played more than passable defense at second, third, and short, and was a league-average hitter in both seasons; he showed flashes of more than that after being dealt to the Orioles at the 2017 trade deadline, as well. But, alas, 2018 was his worst big league season on offense and defense. His walk and strikeout rates trended in the right direction, but not significantly so – and that was about it.

So why is he here? Put simply, the Yankees need infield depth and Beckham has played all four positions. And he’s played them well at times, to boot. Even with the bust designation, he had three years of solid utility work and he’s still in what should be the prime of his career – so it wouldn’t be shocking if he could get back to that level. It’s not glamorous, but there’s value in a utility infielder that can swing a league-average bat.

Justin Bour, 1B/DH

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – .227/.341/.404, 20 HR, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.2 MM
Years of Control – 2

I wrote about Brandon Belt – who is owed over $50 MM over the next three years – a few weeks ago, and discussed how often worthwhile first base options are available. I bring that up now because Bour (119 wRC+) and Belt (122) have had almost identical production over the last three years, and Bour was just non-tendered by a team that fancies itself a contender. Bour is coming off of the worst season of his career by wRC+, but he posted a career-best 14.6% walk rate and still socked 20 dingers. You could do a great deal worst at first, and the Yankees largely have post-Teixeira.

Bour makes sense as a target if the Yankees are moving on from Greg Bird. And, given that he’s best-suited as the larger side of a platoon (he had a 123 wRC+ against RHP last year), he could work quite well with Luke Voit.

Brad Boxberger, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – 53.1 IP, 30.2 K%, 13.2 BB%, 4.39 ERA, 4.55 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Boxberger’s overall numbers don’t look terribly enticing; quite the opposite, actually (aside from the strikeouts). However, it’s worth noting that he, like seemingly everyone on the Diamondbacks, fell apart in September as the team slid out of contention. Heading into the final month of the season, Boxberger was sitting on a 3.45 ERA in 47.0 IP, with 33.8% strikeouts and 12.1% walks (as well as a 50% groundball rate). The walks are still high, but he was otherwise a rock solid closer until that horrendous month. And his number from the first five months of the season are right in-line with his career norms.

Relievers fall off of a cliff out of nowhere all the time, to be sure – but Boxberger has enough of a track record to suggest that his September was a slump. And I could see him being a legitimate weapon for whatever team signs him. I wouldn’t mind if that was the Yankees.

Matt Bush, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 23.0 IP, 17.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, 4.70 ERA, 5.29 FIP
Arbitration Projection – N/A
Years of Control – 4

Bush is here purely as a buy-low candidate, and probably a minor league deal guy. He was excellent in 2016 and very good in 2017, but injuries and struggles helped him fall out of favor in Texas last year.

He’s also here because, even with the injuries, his fastball sat at 96 MPH last year, and his fastball spin rate ranks among the elite at 2550 RPM over the last three years. That’s the fourth-best spin rate among the 268 pitchers to throw at least 1000 fastballs since the beginning of 2016. Hell, it’s 15th among all pitchers with at least 100 fastballs thrown in that time. Bush has had injury issues and he’s not young, but there’s a lot to work with here.

Xavier Cedeno, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 33.1 IP, 24.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.95 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.5 MM
Years of Control – 1

Cedeno missed nearly all of 2017 with forearm soreness, but you wouldn’t know that from how well he performed in 2018. The walks are a bit high, but they’re balanced nicely by his strikeout rate and his ability to burn worms – he had a 54.4% groundball rate last year, which is in-line with his career rate of 50.9%. I kind of buried the lede here, though, as Cedeno’s another lefty specialist. Though, he’s more effective against lefties than Avilan, and may therefore make more sense in a highly-specialized bullpen.

Mike Fiers, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 172.0 IP, 19.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, 3.56 ERA, 4.75 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $9.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

Fiers has carved out a respectable career as a league-average starter in nearly 900 IP. He has been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, though; to wit, his ERAs over the last four years are 3.69, 4.48, 5.52, and 3.56. His FIPs follow the same pattern, as do his strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In short, you never know what you’re getting with Fiers (aside from high home run rates – it’s just a matter of how high). That being said, he’s also a guy that’s made at least 28 starts in four straight seasons, and has value as a back-end starter that could give you a bit more.

He’s low on the list of pitchers that I’d like to see the Yankees look at should other options fall through, but I could see Fiers making sense; but he’s something like the tenth best starting pitcher on the market.

Wilmer Flores, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .267/.319/.417, 11 HR, 0 SB, 103 wRC+ in 429 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

It seems like Flores has been around forever, doesn’t it? I suppose being a three-time top-hundred prospect and making your MLB debut at 21 will do that.

Flores was a solid utility player for the Mets over the last four years, sitting a tick above league-average with the bat and providing acceptable glovework at first, second, and third. He’s a high-contact hitter, striking out in just 9.8% of his PA last year, and he has enough pop to drive pitches over the fence to all fields. He’s probably no better than average in any facet of the game, but, aside from a lack of walks (6.8% last year), he doesn’t really have a glaring weakness.

If the Yankees are looking for a temporary placeholder at second with the hopes of him moving to the bench when Didi Gregorius returns, the could do a heck of a lot worse than Flores.

Dan Jennings, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – 64.1 IP, 16.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 4.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.6 MM
Years of Control – 1

Hey, it’s another lefty specialist! Or, maybe not, depending on how much stock you put in recency bias. Over the course of his career, Jennings has had a minimal platoon split, holding lefties to a .296 wOBA and righties to a .317 wOBA. He’s been deployed largely as a match-up guy, but he’s face more righties than lefties owing to the fact that his managers have been comfortable leaving him in to face more than one good lefty. Last year, however, Jennings was battered by righties, allowing a .310/.399/.528 slash line. Ouch.

Guys like Jennings who rely on grounders (55.4% for his career) are scary in Yankee Stadium – but if the team’s looking for a specialist, he makes sense.

Blake Parker, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 66.1 IP, 25.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 3.26 ERA, 4.40 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 2

I was kind of surprised to see Parker non-tendered, as he was very good for the Angels over the last two years. The only black mark was a 1.63 HR/9 last season, which should be neither overlooked nor harped upon. Parker’s not the bullpen ace that he looked like for most of 2017, but he feels like the type of free agent that will get a great deal less than similar players due to the lack of name value and stigma of the non-tender.

A reunion with the Yankees could make sense, with the hopes that his home run rates normalize of course.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .233/.266/.416, 21 HR, 1 SB, 80 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $10.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Schoop reminds me a bit of Starlin Castro, in that the obvious talent is there, but always feels just out of reach. The 27-year-old has big-time power and athleticism, but he’s among the most impatient hitters in the game, with a swing percentage that’s nearly 10 percentage points above league-average. That worked well in his career-best 2017, when he posted a 122 wRC+, and found him wanting in 2018. The power’s undoubtedly there, and he’s an average defender at second – but Schoop will only go as far as his BABIP takes him.

If you look at his average season, Schoop makes sense as a stop-gap second baseman. Without much in the way of versatility, though, I don’t like the fit.

Matt Shoemaker, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 31.0 IP, 25.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 4.94 ERA, 3.35 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Shoemaker missed most of 2017 and 2018 with nerve issues in his forearm that required two separate surgeries. That’s scary. And yet there’s a silver lining, as he returned to make six starts in September, with his stuff fully intact. His 4.94 ERA is ugly, but Shoemaker racked up strikeouts and limited walks, and looked entirely like the pitcher he had been prior to his forearm problems. Granted, that means he’s been a largely back-end starter, not unlike the aforementioned Mike Fiers – but, as I’ve said before, there’s value in that.

I prefer Shoemaker to Fiers, if the Yankees have the need to deep-dive into this end of the starting pitching pool. But both should be essentially considered emergency options.

Yangervis Solarte, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – .226/.277/.378, 17 HR, 1 SB, 77 wRC+ in 506 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Full disclosure: I’m only including Solarte because he’s been bandied about a bit on Yankees Twitter. I’m not sure if that’s because he’s a former Yankee, but he has slipped as a hitter and defender in back-to-back years, and doesn’t strike me as the type of player in-line for a big bounce-back season.

Alex Wilson, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 61.2 IP, 17.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 4.28 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $2.8 MM
Years of Control – 1

Wilson has been a steady albeit unspectacular reliever for four-plus years now, plying his trade by avoiding walks and keeping the ball on the ground (49.2% grounders in 2018). He’s something of an interesting case in terms of approach, as he throws three pitches, and they’re all fastballs – a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter, to be more specific. Wilson mixes it up by changing his usage rate of all three from game-to-game, and it’s been enough to keep hitters off-balance so far. Whether or not that would work in a more hitter-friendly park is up in the air.

The Other Other Guys [2018 Season Review]

November 30, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Twenty-three different position players came to the plate at least once for the Yankees this year, and we here at River Avenue Blues endeavor to give you a little something about each and every one of them in this series of reviews. These are the guys that opened the season in the organization and, for a variety of reasons, ended up playing relatively minor roles.

Brandon Drury

The Yankees have acquired quite a bit of talent from the Diamondbacks over the last five years; so much so that a deal between the two teams feels like an automatic win for the good guys. They’ve made five deals in that span, with the Yankees acquiring Brandon McCarthy, Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Clippard, and Drury, and giving up Vidal Nuno, Peter O’Brien, Shane Greene, Vicente Campos, Taylor Widener, and Nick Solak (the last two in the deal for Drury). That’s 17.3 WAR in, and 3.4 WAR out, for those of you scoring at home.

But I digress.

Drury was acquired by the Yankees in February as a part of a three-team trade with the Rays and Diamondbacks. The aforementioned Solak went to Tampa, and Widener went to the desert; and both spent the entirety of 2018 at Double-A in their respective organizations. It’s worth noting that both performed well in Double-A, to be sure, but neither is a standout prospect.

For his part, Drury opened the season as the Yankees third baseman, starting seven of the team’s first eight games and pinch-hitting in the other. He hit a more than serviceable .217/.333/.391 (101 wRC+) in that span, and it seemed as though the team had found a perfectly adequate infielder. And when he was placed on the disabled list with migraines on April 7, he was expected back in relatively short order.

It didn’t work out that way, of course. Miguel Andujar took over at the hot corner in Drury’s absence, and hit the ground running. And when Drury’s stint on the disabled list was over on May 14, he was optioned to Triple-A Scranton, where he would spend the next six-plus weeks tearing the cover off of the ball. It was clear that he didn’t belong there, but it was also clear that they didn’t have room for him on the big club.

Drury was called back up on June 29, and bounced around the infield for ten days before being sent back down. He only hit .136/.174/.182 in that stretch, so it was difficult to fault the Yankees. He came back up on July 20, and was essentially done as a Yankee on July 24, when he exited the game after being hit in the hand with a pitch. Drury was dealt to the Blue Jays (along with Billy McKinney) for J.A. Happ a couple of days later.

All told, Drury hit .176/.263/.275 (49 wRC+) in 57 PA in pinstripes. Injuries and superior options at second and third base hindered his chances of finding a role with the team before he really had a chance, and his bags were packed at the deadline. He followed that up by hitting .154/.241/.231 (33 wRC+) with the Blue Jays, albeit in just 29 PA as his season ended early due to a fracture in his left hand.

Clint Frazier

The 2017-18 off-season could not have been much fun for Frazier, who spent his time seeing his name in trade rumors, recovering from an oblique injury, and getting a much-publicized haircut. And seeing the Yankees add Giancarlo Stanton to an already crowded outfield picture was probably a bit disconcerting, as well. I don’t want to editorialize too much, but I can’t help but feel that he was relieved to start playing baseball again when February rolled around.

Unfortunately, Spring Training wasn’t any better, as Frazier suffered a concussion after crashing into the outfield wall, and missed the first several weeks of the season as a result. He was activated from the disabled list on May 1 and optioned to Triple-A, where he hit .362/.423/.702 in 52 PA before being called-up for a double-header on May 19. He started one game, going 1-for-2 with two walks, and was sent back down to Triple-A.

Frazier spent the next two months bouncing between Triple-A and the show; he obliterated the minor leagues, posting a .311/.389/.574 slash line in 216 PA, and was adequate in 41 big league PA, posting a 113 wRC+. Unfortunately, the lingering post-concussion effects never really let up, and his season was over in August. And given how mightily the Yankees struggled to fill the void left by Aaron Judge’s injury, Frazier missed a big opportunity, to boot.

Frazier’s status is one of the low-key but still important storylines of this off-season. He’s still only 24 with oodles of talent, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last two years, and concussions are tricky at best. Moreover, the Yankees still have a crowded outfield, even if Brett Gardner hadn’t re-signed. Frazier is ostensibly healthy and resting now, but this may well be another winter of trade rumors.

Kyle Higashioka

Higashioka entered the 2018 season as the team’s third-string catcher, and the expectation that he wouldn’t have much of anything to do in the majors this year barring some calamity. There was a calamity, of sorts, in Gary Sanchez’s injury-riddled and disappointing season, which resulted in Higashioka spending about three months on the Yankees roster. Unfortunately for him, that meant a lot of sitting on the bench if deference to Austin Romine.

The 28-year-old backstop spent most of the first three months of the season in Triple-A, where he struggled mightily. He slashed just .196/.272/.337 through 52 games, which was a far cry from his strong performances there in 2016 (131 wRC+) and 2017 (113 wRC+). There was no clear path to playing time for Higashioka for most of this time, and he certainly wasn’t forcing the issue.

When Sanchez hit the disabled list with a groin injury on June 25, Higashioka was called-up. He served in a timeshare with Romine, starting nine of the team’s nineteen games in this stretch, and he slashed an intriguing .167/.242/.500 in 33 PA. Higashioka had the first three hits of his major-league career during this stint … all of which were home runs.

Higashioka was sent back down when Sanchez returned from the DL, and was recalled when Sanchez aggravated the groin injury a few days later. He’d go on to spend the rest of the season with the team, picking up eleven more starts along the way. Higashioka finished the season hitting .167/.241/.319 (51 wRC+) in 79 PA.

There were some reasons to be excited about Higashioka after his dominance of Triple-A in 2016, but that ship has likely sailed at this point. He’ll be 29 in April, and the team clearly prefers Romine off of the bench. That doesn’t mean that he can’t be a useful bench piece – it just might not be for the Yankees.

Billy McKinney

McKinney was acquired alongside Gleyber Torres way back in 2016, and was poised for a real opportunity with the Yankees when Frazier, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury went down with injuries. He earned his first big league start (and hit) on March 30 … and was placed on the DL with a left shoulder strain after crashing into the wall on March 31.

By the time McKinney was activated on May 24, the Yankees outfield rotation was set, and he headed to Triple-A. He flashed some power there, slashing .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with 13 HR in 234 PA, but his tenure with the team ended before he could claw his way back to the majors when he was sent to Toronto in the Happ trade.

McKinney spent his first month with his new organization in the minors, but he was called-up on August 18 (against the Yankees), and spent the rest of the year starting for the Blue Jays. He hit .252/.320/.470 (114 wRC+) in 128 PA down the stretch, and should have one of the corner outfield spots locked-up for 2019.

Jace Peterson

Not-so-great baserunning, Jace. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Peterson spent a whopping 112 days in the Yankees organization, a tenure that included one game in Triple-A and three at the highest level. That was long enough to have a play for the team’s highlight reels, though, in the form of this excellent catch against the Orioles:

Peterson was claimed off of waivers by those same Orioles on April 24, and his Yankees career was over. He did hit .300 with the team, though (in 11 PA), so he has something to tell his grandchildren one day.

The 28-year-old utility player did find a good home in Baltimore, though, playing all over the field and appearing in 93 games. He hit just .195/.308/.325, but he stole 13 bases in 15 attempts … so, there’s that.

Shane Robinson

The aforementioned injuries to Clint Frazier, Ellsbury, and Judge as well as the trade of McKinney paved the way for Robinson to make 17 starts for the Yankees this year. That in and of itself is a fine argument both for how necessary depth is, and how quickly it can disappear. And it haunts me to this day.

Robinson was signed by the Yankees way back in February to serve as Triple-A depth. When he was signed, he was something like ninth or tenth on the organization’s outfield depth chart, and for good reason. The now-34-year-old was a Quadruple-A player, having spent the previous eight years as an up-and-down guy for the Cardinals, Twins, and Angels, racking up a .226/.294/.297 line in 795 PA along the way. He’s the sort of player every organization needs, but doesn’t really want to see at the highest level.

He was called-up in early April for a two-game cup of coffee, going 1-for-3 with two walks in two games before being sent back down. He spent the rest of April through late-July in Triple-A (and missing all of June), posting a .628 OPS in 192 PA. But Judge’s injury and McKinney’s trade mere days beforehand forced the Yankees hand, and Robinson was recalled on July 28.

Robinson played in 23 of the team’s Judge-less games, starting sixteen. He hit .130/.167/.217 in that time, which thankfully (mercifully?) came to an end when Andrew McCutchen was acquired on August 31. Robinson spent the rest of the season in purgatory, and became a free agent on October 10.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Derek Dietrich

November 29, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Given the current construction of the Yankees roster, it stands to reason that they need some combination of a first baseman, second baseman, and/or shortstop. Gleyber Torres is penciled in at one of the middle infield slots, to be sure, and Luke Voit and Greg Bird are ostensibly in-line for the at-bats at first – but there is a feeling that at least two of these positions are far from settled. The in-house options may mean that it doesn’t make a terrible amount of sense to spend big at any of those positions (especially with Didi Gregorius slated to return at some point this Summer), but adding a proven talent into the fray is almost certainly a must.

Enter the recently freed Derek Dietrich.

Background

The 29-year-old Dietrich was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round of the 2010 draft, and spent the first three years of his professional career in their organization. He was never regarded as a top-hundred talent, or anything particularly close to that, but he was dealt to the Marlins straight-up for Yunel Escobar after the 2012 season. And, within a couple of months, he made the jump from Double-A to the majors, serving as the Marlins regular second baseman for about a third of the season. Dietrich was an up-and-down guy for a few years, before entrenching himself as a starter in 2016.

Some folks reading this might be familiar with Dietrich for his conflict with Tino Martinez back in 2013. The short version of the story is that Dietrich and other young players on the Marlins accused Martinez, the hitting coach, of being physically and verbally aggressive (if not abusive); the end result was Martinez resigning. I will not editorialize this, as there’s simply too much back and forth to draw any reasoned conclusion from. That being said, it’s worth noting that this was well over five years ago at this point, and there have been no further reports of issues with Dietrich’s personality, approach, or maturity.

Offensive Performance

Dietrich has been a regular since June of 2015, so let’s focus on that time frame:

	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	BB%	K%	HBP	PA
2015	.256/.346/.456	122	10	8.0%	22.5%	13	289
2016	.279/.374/.425	121	7	7.8%	20.4%	24	412
2017	.249/.334/.424	102	13	7.8%	21.1%	18	464
2018	.265/.330/.421	109	16	5.3%	25.4%	21	551

The first thing that jumps out for me is that HBP column – which is why I included it for your viewing pleasure. Dietrich is one of those hitters that crowds the plate and isn’t afraid to take one for the team, which makes those totals a skill, and not a fluke; after all, he has the highest HBP rate of any player with 2,000+ PA in big-league history. And, as a hitter who does not take a ton of walks, those extra free bases help out quite a bit.

Other than that, it’s a simple matter of Dietrich being a solid but otherwise uninspiring offensive weapon. There’s nothing wrong with that, to be sure – but there’s nothing terribly compelling, either. That is, until you note that Dietrich is a left-handed hitter with big-time pull tendencies:

And Marlins Park is not conducive to that approach. Case in point, take a look at his home/road splits for his career:

Home – .236/.319/.380, 97 wRC+, 22 HR in 1047 PA
Road – .271/.351/.462, 120 wRC+, 38 HR in 1085 PA

Much like Coors Field can make a middling hitter look like a borderline star, Marlins Park has brought Dietrich’s overall line down quite a bit. And there’s not really a better match for a hitter like Dietrich than Yankee Stadium.

It is worth noting that Dietrich has often been used as a platoon bat due to early career struggles against southpaws. As a result of this he’s never accumulated more than 106 PA against same-side pitchers, which makes the sample sizes difficult to draw upon. However, he faced more lefties than ever in 2017, and bested that mark in 2018, and posted a combined 109 wRC+ against them in that time. I’d hazard that he’s at least playable against all but the very best lefties; and, even then, I don’t know that I’d consider him unplayable.

Defensive Performance

Dietrich has played five positions in his big-league career, logging time at second (1531.0 innings), left field (1120.0), third (1084.0), first (390.0), and right field (1.2 innings). He came up as a second baseman, but he has never spent an entire season at just one position. And, much like most players that play all over the field, he’s not terribly good at any position. Leaving right field aside, given the minuscule sample size, here is how he grades out defensively:

First: 0 DRS/150, 1.7 UZR/150
Second: -15 DRS/150, -4.4 UZR/150
Third: -5.2 DRS/150, -6.0 UZR/150
Left Field: -23 DRS/150, -17.8 UZR/150

That’s not great. Though, it is worth noting that he’s graded out much better at second since the Marlins started bouncing him around, sitting at roughly average over the last three seasons. He’s not an asset at any position, to be sure – but he’s adequate at first and, based on the numbers and the reports, playable at second. Trot him out to third or left at your own risk, though.

Injury History

Dietrich’s injury history is almost exclusively the result of being hit by so many pitches, which is to be expected. The last time he hit the disabled list, however, was back in August of 2016, when he was plunked on the right knee. He’s missed a game or two here or there with assorted bumps and bruises, but he’s otherwise been healthy throughout his career.

Contract Estimates

MLB Trade Rumors projected a salary of $4.8 MM for Dietrich in his second trip through arbitration, and that was too rich for the Marlins tastes. He was designated for assignment on November 20 and made it through waivers unclaimed, which probably means that figure was too rich for every team. It’s possible that a bidding war could start at some point, but any team could have had him for (roughly) that salary plus a year of control in 2020, and every team passed. I imagine that he’ll sign for less.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

A left-handed hitter with pop that can play two positions of (probable) need that can be had for (probably) less than $5 MM a year sense awfully appealing, doesn’t it?

Dietrich is not a star, and he doesn’t offer the same sort of defensive performance of someone like Jed Lowrie or DJ LeMahieu; and he also forces the Yankees to move Torres over to short. Is that really an issue, though? I’m not so sure. The FA market for shortstops is basically Manny Machado and a bunch of glove-first types, so Torres shifting over probably makes the most sense. And given Dietrich’s willingness to move all over the field and come off of the bench, he might just make the most sense for a role that’s likely to change when Gregorius returns to action. The fact that the price is likely going to be right helps, too, as does the potential for his bat to perk up in a park that’s not in Miami.

At this juncture, if the plan is to sign a second baseman, I think Dietrich may well be the best free agent option. And I’m more than okay with that.