Hot Stove League Archives - Page 3 of 278

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

A reunion could benefit both Neil Walker and the Yankees as Spring Training approaches

January 29, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa two weeks from tomorrow. Some clubs open camp a day or two earlier, others a day or two later. In about two weeks though, Spring Training begins, and a lot of free agents will still be looking for work. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel will be fine. They’re going to get paid. The free agent middle class is feeling the squeeze the most.

Neil Walker felt that squeeze last winter. I thought he was looking at something like two years and $20M going into the offseason. The Jed Lowrie/DJ LeMahieu contract. Instead, Walker signed a one-year deal worth $4M with the Yankees on March 12th, two and a half weeks before Opening Day. That was coming off a season in which he hit .265/.362/.439 (114 wRC+) with 14 homers as a full-time player.

Walker, now 33, had to settle for a part-time role with the Yankees and hit .219/.309/.354 (81 wRC+) with eleven home runs last year. He was effective when pushed into an everyday role. As a true bench guy, he struggled. Walker is once again feeling the free agent squeeze, and now that he’s entering his mid-30s and coming off his worse full MLB season, I imagine he’s feeling that squeeze even more. Will he even get a Major League contract? I’m not sure.

With Spring Training on the horizon, the Yankees and Walker are in position to help each other out. A reunion could benefit both parties. I’m thinking a contract structure along these lines:

Minor league contract with a $3M salary at the MLB level, plus plate appearance incentives.
Opt-out clause at the end of Spring Training (say March 25th).
Walker can also opt out at any point before Opening Day if another team is willing to put him on their 40-man roster.
The Yankees can prevent Walker from opting out by adding him to their 40-man roster.

Walker made $4M last year and I can’t see him getting raise (or even making the same salary) after the year he had. He did well when pressed into action on an everyday basis. Overall though, he was below-average. That’s why I’m thinking a $3M salary instead of a $4M salary. It’s possible $3M is even a little generous at this point. Maybe $2M is more appropriate? Anyway, let’s talk through the other points.

What’s in it for the Yankees?

An insurance policy, basically. Should an infielder get hurt in Spring Training, Walker would be around to step right into the vacated roster spot. Heck, the Yankees still have an open bench spot. Even if everyone stays healthy in camp, the Yankees could still carry Walker on their bench. He could be the backup first baseman rather than LeMahieu as well as the emergency outfielder and emergency catcher (Walker caught in the minors), among other things.

Minor league contracts are zero risk and Walker, given his track record, is a nice little insurance policy to have lying around in Spring Training. And hey, if Walker’s willing to go to Triple-A for a bit during the regular season, great! If not, no big deal. The Yankees would be right back where they are right now. Nothing gained, but also nothing lost. They’d give Walker a look in camp and see whether he fits.

What’s in it for Walker?

A job, for starters. Those are hard to come by for second or third tier free agents these days. A minor league contract with the Yankees allows Walker to have a full and normal Spring Training with a team he knows. Last year he had to participate in the MLBPA’s free agent spring camp to get ready for the season. Signing with the Yankees would allow him to have a proper Spring Training and prepare for the season in a way he was unable to last year.

An end-of-spring opt-out clause is fairly standard for veterans on minor league deals. The twist is allowing him to opt out at any point in Spring Training if another team comes along and wants to put him on their MLB roster. Such a clause is uncommon but not unprecedented. In Walker’s case, any team that puts him on their 40-man roster is giving him an MLB job. He has enough service time to refuse an assignment to the minors once he’s on the 40-man. Any team that wants him will want him for their Opening Day roster.

Reporting to Spring Training allows Walker to prepare for the season and also showcase himself for other teams. He’s been in the league long enough now that he’s a known commodity. Still, playing in Spring Training beats sitting at home or working out in an MLBPA camp when you’re trying to land a job. Walker gets to work out and play, and do whatever he needs to do to prepare for the season, while still having the freedom to go to a team that wants him on their big league roster.

* * *

By all accounts Walker enjoyed his time with the Yankees last year and the Yankees enjoyed having him. I would not have blamed him at all for being upset about his free agency and contract status, and I’m sure that, deep down, he was. How he could he not be? Walker handled it like a pro though. He accepted his role and worked hard at it, though being a part-time player after playing everyday his entire career proved to be a difficult adjustment.

A minor league contract could benefit both sides. Walker would get to have a proper Spring Training with a team (and teammates) he knows while retaining the ability to leave should another team want him for their big league roster. The Yankees get to bring Walker to camp as insurance, and, if they want him to keep him around, they can block any opt-out by adding him to their big league roster. They’d have the right of first refusal, basically.

To me, this does not seem like an arrangement that would work for any player with any team. Could you imagine the Yankees doing this with, say, Derek Dietrich, a player they have no history with whatsoever? Nah. I’m also not sure this is something Walker would want to do right now. An agreement with the Yankees could scare away other teams. Position players are not due to report until February 19th. That gives Walker three weeks to explore other opportunities.

The Yankees and Walker have a history and each side knows what they would be getting into. If no other team comes calling before Spring Training begins, a minor league contract with the Yankees would allow Walker gets to prepare for the regular season and showcase himself for other clubs. The Yankees would get to keep him around as depth. It’s the best of a bad situation for Walker. Certainly preferable to sitting unsigned until mid-March again.

Update: Walker signed a one-year deal with the Marlins earlier this evening, the team announced. So much for that idea. Good for Neil though.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Rotation Depth

January 29, 2019 by Derek Albin

The following is the first post from our newest writer, Derek Albin. He currently contributes to Baseball Prospectus and has also written about the Yankees at the now defunct BP Bronx and It’s About The Money, Stupid. You’ll see his work regularly. You can follow Derek on Twitter at @derekalbin.

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Conventional wisdom can be trite, but sometimes it exists for good reason. The old adage that you can never have enough starting pitching is something said ad nauseam, but holds true. Just look at the Yankees last year: twelve different pitchers started and ten of them did so on multiple occasions. This season, we can probably expect something similar.

Right now, the Yankees have baseball’s third-best projected rotation per Fangraphs. It’s pretty hard to knock a staff of that caliber, but if there’s any flaw, it’s depth. In particular, Luis Cessa, Chance Adams, Albert Abreu, and Domingo Acevedo project for 83 innings altogether. Decreasing that group’s workload would be ideal, and it looks like something the front office is considering. Even with pitchers and catchers reporting in just a few weeks, there are still some useful pitchers available in free agency.

Wade Miley

Like CC Sabathia, Miley appears to have saved his career thanks to an emphasis on the cutter. In the past, Miley had thrown four-seamers for more than half of his pitches. Last year, he started throwing his cutter more than 40 percent of the time to resounding success. His home run problems? Gone. He allowed just three long balls in over 80 innings. All told, Miley posted a career best 2.57 ERA, supported by a solid 3.59 FIP.

Steamer foresees some regression, projecting a 4.36 ERA this year. Still, sign me up for that as a depth starter. Of course, why would Miley take on such a role? Given his revitalization and history of durability (29 starts or more annually from 2012 through 2017), he should be able to find a regular gig somewhere. Barring a six-man rotation, which is unlikely given the amount of off-days to begin the regular season, Miley would be in the bullpen to begin the year. Sure, someone could get hurt during camp, but that’s not something Miley will want to count on. Miley would be a nice-to-have option, but it seems like an unlikely union. Then again, free agency is a weird, weird place nowadays.

Brett Anderson

It’s been over a decade now since Anderson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Injuries have held the southpaw back, but he has put together a few decent stretches at points throughout his career. Though he’s never been a strikeout artist, he’s consistently put together solid peripherals by throwing strikes without surrendering many homers. In a curtailed 2018 due to injury (shocking), he pitched to a 4.48 ERA and 4.17 FIP in just over 80 frames.

Steamer expects more of the same: a low four ERA with some time on the shelf. His ability is tantalizing because he has the makings of a stellar fourth starter, but he simply struggles to stay on the field. For that reason, he might be hard pressed to find a guaranteed spot in anyone’s rotation. Should that be the case, the Yankees are a great fit. I’m sure that the front office would prefer a more durable fallback option, but from a talent perspective, Anderson is hard to top for this role.

Jeremy Hellickson

Like Miley and Anderson, Hellickson also spent time on the disabled list last year. When on the mound, though, the righty pitched well for Washington. He posted a 3.45 ERA and 4.22 FIP in a hair over 90 innings, which was a strong recovery from a horrendous 2017. In time split with Philadelphia and Baltimore that year, Hellickson recorded a career-worst 1.92 HR/9, 5.43 ERA, and 5.77 FIP.

Hellickson’s 2017 is likely the reason for Steamer’s bearish outlook in 2019. Hellickson has always been a fly ball pitcher, so home runs are part of his game, but his highest HR/9 prior to 2017 was 1.36 in 2015. Most other seasons have been in the 1.1 or 1.2 range. Nonetheless, Steamer forecasts 1.59 HR/9, which balloons his projected ERA and FIP over five. I get that fly ball pitchers and Yankee Stadium don’t mix well, but when we’re talking about a sixth or seventh starter, beggars can’t be choosers. He might not be as good as he was in 2018, but I’m certainly not as low on him as Steamer.

Ervin Santana

Finger injuries ruined Santana’s 2018. He made just five starts that aren’t even worth talking about. All you need to know is that he was horrendous. The two years prior are different stories, however. For the Twins in 2016 and 2017, Santana totaled 6.2 fWAR and ERAs in the low threes. Granted, Santana is now 36 and his best days are most certainly behind him. He can’t be that far removed from his 2017 ability though, right?

Steamer disagrees and basically thinks he’s done as an effective starter, calling for an ERA and FIP above five. With his health and projection in mind, it’s a risky proposition to start Santana every fifth day from the get-go, so he will probably have to settle for the type of role the Yankees have available.

The Others

There are a handful of others who’ve been around the block, such as James Shields and Jason Hammel. I’m not very confident in options like those two exceeding the contribution that Cessa et. al. could provide, though a minor league deal wouldn’t hurt. Ditto goes for hurlers like Edwin Jackson, Doug Fister, Josh Tomlin, and Yovani Gallardo. Let’s not mention Clay Buchholz; the thought of him in pinstripes is rather unpleasant. Finally, you might have noticed I excluded Gio Gonzalez, who although still available, I don’t think it’s worth considering because he shouldn’t have to settle.

If the Yankees won’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos would be a good fallback plan

January 25, 2019 by Mike

As busy as the Yankees have been this offseason, they still have room in their lineup for one more bat. In a perfect world that bat would be Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. It’s not often you can sign a 26-year-old superstar caliber player. The Yankees seem content to let Harper and Machado go to other teams. It’s disappointing. It really is.

Machado and Harper are not the only bats on the market. Mike Moustakas and Marwin Gonzalez continue to sit in free agency, though they qualify as good hitters more than great hitters. I’m sure the Mariners would love to unload Edwin Encarnacion and his $25M salary. He was a devastating hitter not too long ago. There are bats available. For sure.

Among those available bats is Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, who authored a .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers as the only real threat in Detroit’s lineup last year (Miguel Cabrera missed 124 games to injury). The Tigers are expected to trade Castellanos, an impending free agent, at some point this year. His agent told Anthony Fenech he hopes the trade happens soon.

“He wants to win and understands the direction of the franchise right now is to procure prospects,” Castellanos’ agent, David Meter, said Tuesday night. “That being said, he would rather start with his new club going into spring training.”

I get why Castellanos wants to be traded as soon as possible — it must absolutely stink knowing you’re going to traded but have no idea where to or when it’ll happen — but the Tigers are not obligated to move him now. They’ll wait for the right deal, then act. Castellanos’ agent voiced his opinion for the record and that’s that. The Tigers will do what’s best for them when the time is right.

The Yankees already have four outfielders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) for the three outfield spots and DH, plus Clint Frazier and the maybe possibly but probably not healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, so adding another outfielder is not a priority. The Yankees could make it work though, and Castellanos is really good. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Castellanos does what the Yankees like. As previously noted, the Yankees love players who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. Last season Castellanos had the sixth highest hard contact rate (47.9%) and the 21st lowest ground ball rate (35.4%) among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His Statcast profile:

Outs above average is defense. We’ll talk about that in a bit. The offensive numbers are very promising. Great contact quality and great expected results. Castellanos doesn’t walk much (7.2% in 2018) but he’s cut down on strikeouts (22.3%) and he punishes the ball. Also, he’s 26. He turns 27 in March. That is an age when players often break out or have a career year. Whoever gets him might be buying the single best year of his career.

Furthermore, few right-handed hitters use the opposite field as well as Castellanos. He hit the sixth most fly balls and line drives to right field among righty hitters the last three years. (No. 1 on that list: DJ LeMahieu.) Here are Castellanos’ fly balls from 2016-18. This spray chart looks like it belongs to a left-handed pull hitter.

Think that’ll play in Yankee Stadium? The hard-hit tendencies, the non-grounder tendencies, and the opposite field tendencies make Castellanos a marvelous fit for the short porch. The kid can hit. He was a highly regarded prospect who went through some growing pains and is now blossoming into a middle of the order force. Every team could use someone like that, including the Yankees.

2. Where would they put him? Castellanos is a brutal defensive player according to both the numbers and the eye test. He started his career at third base, and when his glovework at the hot corner became untenable, the Tigers moved him to right field, where he hasn’t been any better. Some numbers:

2016: -11 DRS (at third)
2017: -14 DRS (at third)
2018: -19 DRS (in right)

For all intents and purposes, Castellanos is a DH. The Yankees would have to put Stanton in left field full-time and move Gardner to the bench to make this work. I suppose they could use Castellanos at third or in right in a pinch, but, generally speaking, he should not be counted on to play defense.

The other option is first base, a position Castellanos has never played as a professional. The Yankees would have to give him a crash course at first base in Spring Training. That’s not ideal. My preference would be putting him at DH and letting him rake. Don’t put more on his plate and expect him to learn a new position. Not as a one-year rental. Get as much out of him as possible and move on.

3. The price might be dropping. According to Fenech, Detroit’s asking price for Castellanos is “believed to be one top-level prospect.” The Dodgers and Braves reportedly had interest in Castellanos earlier this winter and they’ve since signed A.J. Pollock and re-signed Nick Markakis, respectively. Some potential suitors are likely out of the running now, meaning the bidding war may not be as intense.

That said, Castellanos is quite good, and I imagine several other teams remain in the hunt. The Indians, Phillies, and Rockies jump out as potential landing spots. If the Tigers are truly seeking just “one top-level prospect,” man, that sounds wonderful to me. The Yankees are in to win it in 2019. Estevan Florial for one year of Castellanos? Jonathan Loaisiga? Albert Abreu or Domingo Acevedo or Deivi Garcia? I’m not sure I could say no to any of that, especially the pitchers.

Keep in mind the Yankees could potentially recoup a draft pick when Castellanos leaves as a free agent after the season. Not a high one — the Yankees will get a pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent next winter because they’re going to pay luxury tax — but a pick nonetheless. That equals an extra prospect and extra bonus pool space. Give up a prospect to get Castellanos and the cost could potentially be offset somewhat by a compensation pick next year.

* * *

The Tigers avoided arbitration with Castellanos prior to the salary filing deadline earlier this month and will pay him $9.95M in 2019. Following the Sonny Gray trade, Cot’s has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $213.2M. (I have them at $221M but my estimates for various things are more conservative.) Add Castellanos and his $9.95M salary and the Yankees are still under the $226M second luxury tax tier, per Cot’s. It could work. On the field and in the books.

The downside here is Castellanos stinks defensively and is yet another right-handed bat in a lineup loaded with right-handed bats. But, as I’ve been saying, I’d rather add a great right-handed bat than a good left-handed bat who balances the lineup. Consider the possibilities:

RF Aaron Judge
CF Aaron Hicks
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Nick Castellanos
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
1B Luke Voit
SS Troy Tulowitzki

I know Judge will never hit leadoff but damn that’s a fun lineup, isn’t it? That leaves Gardner and LeMahieu on the bench. Gardner can replace Stanton for defense in the late innings, and, if Tulowitzki doesn’t cut it, Gleyber can move to short and LeMahieu can take over at second base. Either way, there is thunder up and down that lineup. Would be fun.

Castellanos is not Machado or Harper — by wRC+, his best season would be Machado’s fourth best season and Harper’s fifth best season — but he is a quality hitter who profiles well in Yankee Stadium. He can’t play defense (or run the bases) and he is another righty bat, but Castellanos would make the Yankees better and deeper. And, if the asking price is “one top-level prospect,” gosh, that might be too good to pass up for a team in position to contend for the World Series.

Sonny Gray left the Yankees little choice but to trade him

January 23, 2019 by Mike

After a weekend of rumors and an offseason of waiting, the Yankees finally traded Sonny Gray earlier this week. We all knew it was coming at some point. We just didn’t know when. Gray went to the Reds in a three-team trade with the Mariners. The Yankees walked away with a lower minors prospect and a draft pick, which, honestly, is more than I thought they’d get. The draft pool money is a big deal.

The trade closes the book on Gray’s stint as a Yankee and we now know for certain it was a bust. There’s no chance at redemption now. I liked Gray and was glad when the Yankees added him for the 2017 stretch run, but the trade was a failure. The Yankees acquired Sonny expecting at least a mid-rotation innings guy and hoping for a bona fide No. 2 starter behind Luis Severino. They got a fifth starter. Sometimes worse.

At this point I’m not really interested in exploring why Gray performed the way he did with the Yankees. I’ve written enough about that the last 12 months or so. I don’t think it’s as simple as “he couldn’t handle New York” or “he was a bad match for Yankee Stadium.” I reckon it was a combination of several things, not one specific thing. Whatever it was, the Gray pickup proved to be a failure.

After last season, a season in which Gray had a 4.90 ERA (4.17 FIP) and lost his rotation spot to Lance Lynn and was not even a consideration for the postseason roster, the Yankees had two choices:

Keep him and try to salvage him in 2019.
Cut their losses and trade him.

Personally, I was willing to give No. 1 a try. I’ve been a Sonny Gray fan for a long time now and I wanted it to work with the Yankees, so I was open to bringing him into the new season as a swingman/sixth starter. You know a starter is going to get hurt at some point. That’s baseball. Gray has more upside than pretty much anyone the Yankees could realistically bring in as a sixth starter.

I was willing to give Gray another chance in 2019. What I think doesn’t matter though. The only thing that matters here is how the Yankees feel about Gray and their assessment of his performance going forward, and Brian Cashman made it clear the Yankees do not expect Sonny to improve next year, or at least improve enough to keep his $7.5M salary on the books. I thought this quote was pretty damning. From Joel Sherman (emphasis mine):

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx,” Cashman told me Monday at the GM Meetings. “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”

The Yankees tried pretty much everything with Gray last season. They gave him his personal catcher. They tightened up his mechanics. They altered his pitch selection and had him emphasize his sinker and curveball. They changed his role. When Cashman or Aaron Boone or Larry Rothschild were asked about Gray, their response often started with an exhale and a sigh. They were frustrated. Exasperated. Maybe even angry.

Given the way Cashman and the Yankees had been talking about him, it’s clear they did not trust Gray on the mound. How well would Sonny have to perform for you to feel confident when he’s on the mound? How long would he have to perform at that level to earn your trust? I imagine the answer is very good and very long. Longer than the Yankees were willing to commit and maybe longer than possible give his impending free agency.

Once the Yankees determined “(we) don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results” as Cashman said, that was it. They’d reached the point of no return. Gray had become a sunk cost. The Yankees gave up three pretty good prospects to get Sonny* and there was nothing they could do to change that. They could continue to force the issue and try to salvage him, or cut their losses and move on. They moved on.

* Could you imagine how much worse this all would’ve looked had Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, or Jorge Mateo done anything of note for the Athletics? They still could, sure. Right now, that trade is a dud all around. Everyone involved has seen their stock drop.

Everyone deserves some share of the blame here. The Yankees, the coaches and analysts that couldn’t get him on track, and Sonny himself. There was no progress last year. It was one step forward, one step back all season. Every sign of improvement vanished with the next start. Eventually it gets to the point where it’s untenable, and it had become untenable with Gray. At that point, the best thing for both parties is a clean break. Everyone gets a fresh start now.

The Yankees decided to make Gray some other team’s problem. They spent a year (more than that, really) trying to get him right and nothing worked. If he had multiple years of control remaining rather than one, I think the Yankees would’ve kept him. But, with just the one year of control remaining, there wasn’t enough long-term upside to keep working at it. The Yankees had grown obviously frustrated with Gray and if they didn’t believe he could help them this year, a trade was the only choice. It was time to move on, not hope for something that everything on the field told you isn’t going to happen.

Nolan Arenado and a conveniently timed hot stove rumor

January 22, 2019 by Mike

As busy as the Yankees have been this winter, it would be a surprise at this point if they sign one of the top two free agents. Their interest in Manny Machado has been tepid at best and their interest in Bryce Harper has been virtually nonexistent. That could change in an instant, of course. For now, a Machado or Harper deal continues to seem unlikely. Disappointing!

Over the last few weeks, as the Yankees continued to sign players not named Machado or Harper, a new narrative started to emerge. That narrative: Nolan Arenado is their real target. The superstar Rockies third baseman will be a free agent next winter. Andy Martino is the latest to report it:

Earlier this week, after I published my nine millionth story of the offseason about the Yankees and Manny Machado, a major league source reached out with a suggestion: Don’t sleep on the Yanks and Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado.

…

Meanwhile, people briefed on the Yankees thinking say that GM Brian Cashman — who did not respond to a request for comment — has internally discussed the possibility of trying to trade for Arenado either now or during the season. One source said that the teams have likely talked already, but neither Cashman nor Rockies GM Jeff Bridich have confirmed this.

Passing on Machado and Harper to sign Arenado is a viable strategy, I suppose. I don’t agree with it all, largely because I think Machado and Harper will be better players going forward, and because signing Arenado next offseason doesn’t help the Yankees win this season. They should be doing all they can to win in 2019. Windows can be short, man. You have to capitalize while you can.

That said, yeah, you could argue passing on Harper and especially Machado now to sign Arenado later is a sound strategy. I guess the argument goes something like this: Arenado is an excellent all-around player, he has a much cleaner injury history, and he has long been considered a clubhouse leader with captain potential. Every team wants a player like Arenado. He’s awesome.

Wanting to acquire Arenado is perfectly normal. Martino says the Yankees have “internally discussed” the possibility of pursuing him and guess what? I imagine the other 28 teams have also “internally discussed” going after Arenado. The Yankees aren’t a special case. There are two things about all this Arenado talk that I can’t get out of my head.

1. Why wait for Arenado when Machado is available now? There are several layers to this. One, signing Arenado as a free agent doesn’t help you win this season, as I already noted. That’s kind of a big deal. Sign Machado and he helps you win now. Two, who’s to say Arenado will actually become a free agent next offseason anyway? The Rockies have a history of paying big to keep their own (Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, etc.) and I’m sure they’ll make a run at extending Arenado.

Three, the Yankees could get Arenado now, but then they’d have to pay twice. First in prospects/players to get him in a trade and then with a massive extension to keep him, a massive extension that figures to be on par with the contract Machado will soon sign. And four, the Rockies are good! Back-to-back postseason trips! Why would they trade their best player? Trading for Arenado now doesn’t seem doable. Maybe at the deadline should Colorado fall out of it, and even then we’re back to the “paying twice for him” thing.

While I totally understand wanting Arenado, I just can’t get beyond the whole “Machado is available right now” thing. He’s available right now. Right now. The Yankees could sign him tomorrow, get a player younger and I’d argue better than Arenado, and keep all their prospects. Assuming a trade is off the table given the Rockies’ hopes of contention in 2019, the options are sign 26-year-old Machado now or sign 28-year-old Arenado next winter. Arenado’s great but that is an easy call in my book.

2. This all sounds like spin. Yuuup. In this era of Yankees austerity and general free agent shunnery, I am extremely skeptical of any purported “we’re going to pass on this star player now, but don’t worry, we’ll spend big for a star player next offseason” plan. I mean, didn’t we just go through this with Machado and Harper? Reset the luxury tax now because oh baby wait until those two become free agents! Yeah, worked great.

There will be, always and forever, reasons to not sign a free agent. Arenado’s production outside Coors Field, for example. If you can come up with reasons to pass on Machado and Harper, you can come up with reasons to pass on Arenado. Believe me. This is how I imagine the front office conversation going:

Executive No. 1: “Fans are mad we’re not going to sign Machado, so let’s tell them we’re waiting for Arenado instead.”

Executive No. 2: “Good idea. Then, if Miguel Andujar has a great season, we can tell them we don’t need Arenado because we have our third baseman.”

Executive No. 1: “Perfect. And if Andujar stinks, we’ll put DJ LeMahieu at third and tell everyone we’re waiting for Mike Trout to become a free agent next year.”

Executives No. 1 & 2:

The Arenado stuff seems a little too convenient to me. Conveniently timed (right before Machado and Harper sign) and of convenient substance (don’t worry, we’ll get a star next year). Passing on Machado and Harper will create an overall negative reaction. It’s inevitable. The Arenado stuff seems like an attempt to mitigate the damage because “we already signed LeMahieu and Tulowitzki!” isn’t going to do the trick. I dunno. Shrug.

To be the fair to the Yankees, they have done something like this before. They passed on Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason because they wanted to sign CC Sabathia during the 2008-09 offseason. They rolled the dice and it worked out as well as anyone could’ve hoped. Passing on Machado and Harper now to wait for Arenado later would be a similar move. The Yankees have done this before. It doesn’t make it any less risky, but they have done it before.

Even if the interest in Arenado is sincere and not spin, the baseball reasoning is misguided. These are three similarly excellent players in their mid-20s. Two are available right now for nothing but cash (and a draft pick in Harper’s case). The other may not ever become available, either via trade or free agency. A team that wants to win right now signs Machado or Harper. They don’t wait a year for someone else. The logic that says the Yankees should wait for Arenado is specious.

Arenado is undeniably a great player. Maybe he won’t be as great outside Coors Field, but I’d bet on him still being a 25-homer bat with all-world defense at third base. That guy’s a star. To me though, the “we’re passing on this guy now because we want this guy later” thing is a transparent attempt to shift focus away from what’s happening right now. Baseball teams loving promising things will happen in the future. How often do they follow through? Not often enough for me to buy Arenado as the real reason the Yankees will pass on Machado and Harper.

A reunion with Adam Warren could make sense as the Yanks round out their bullpen

January 21, 2019 by Mike

With Spring Training roughly three weeks away, the Yankees have accomplished their reported goal of adding two relievers this offseason. They re-signed Zach Britton two weeks ago and agreed to a deal with Adam Ottavino last week. Those two join Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder to form a very strong bullpen top six. That’s quite a reliever core.

The Yankees still have two bullpen spots to figure out, assuming they continue forward with an eight-man bullpen. Tommy Kahnle is likely to get a chance to show he can get back to his 2017 form, but, even if he does, the Yankees still want another swingman/sixth starter type to replace the soon-to-be traded Sonny Gray. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga will be stashed in Triple-A as rotation depth. The Yankees still need a long reliever.

Relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting paid these days. Even then, there are still plenty of bullpen arms sitting in free agency. I count 45 of them. Among those 45 is two-time former Yankee Adam Warren, who’s market seems to be heating up. The Rangers want him (per Ken Rosenthal), the Cubs want him (per Rosenthal), and the Mets want him (per Andy Martino). Some team will sign Warren soon enough.

The Yankees have not been connected to Warren at all but a reunion does make some sense even after spending big for Britton and Ottavino. For starters, Warren is still very effective, throwing 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) in pinstripes last year. He wasn’t as good with the Mariners (3.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP) and his career splits are kinda funny:

As a Yankee: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings
As a Not Yankee: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings

We always hear about guys who can’t handle New York. Is there such a thing as a guy who can only handle New York? That might be Warren. In all seriousness, the Yankees know Warren and vice versa, and that’s not nothing. They know they can plug him right into their environment and he’ll handle it well. The ballpark, the clubhouse, the coaching staff, his role in the bullpen. No questions asked.

After returning to the Yankees at the 2016 trade deadline Warren bought into the anti-fastball plan …

… and the result was the best strikeout numbers of his career. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but, in his second stint as a Yankee, Warren struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced. It was 20.3% in his first stint as a Yankee and 19.5% in the season before the trade to the Cubs. Point is, Warren adapted and remained effective, so you know he can make adjustments.

There’s also the multi-inning potential. Warren didn’t do it quite as much last year — eight times in 24 appearances with the Yankees did he record at least four outs — but he still did it, and at age 31, he’s not so past his prime that it’s unreasonable to think he could do it for another year. When your starters don’t pitch deep into games, having a versatile multi-inning reliever in the bullpen is an obvious plus. The Yankees are said to want one.

Warren earned $3.315M last season and my hunch is he’s looking at something along the lines of Jesse Chavez (two years, $8M) and Hector Rondon (two years, $8.5M) money. Maybe he could milk a team for $10M across two years. Either way, that is the kind of contract that can fit into any team’s budget, even if the Yankees consider the $226M second luxury tax tier a hard spending limit. Even though he’d be at best the sixth reliever in the Yankees’ bullpen, Warren has shown over the years how valuable he can be in that role.

The question now is does Warren want to come back to the Yankees? By all accounts he loved being a Yankee and the team appreciated his professionalism and that he’s low maintenance. The Yankees have traded him twice though. Does Warren want to open himself to that possibility again? Would another team offer him a chance at high-leverage work or (gasp) give him a chance to start? I imagine he’d take that over being sixth (at best) on the bullpen depth chart with the Yankees.

Also, money will be a factor. Warren turns 32 in August and this may be his only chance at a nice free agent payday. Being a middle reliever doesn’t pay all that well and there’s minimal job security. Warren earned $8.9M in player contracts during his six years of team control, so while he’s done well, he hasn’t cashed in huge. This offseason might be his only chance at a good free agent deal. I’d bet on Warren signing with the highest bidder regardless of his role with the team. Gotta cash in while you can.

The Yankees don’t have to spend big on another reliever after signing Ottavino. The goal now is adding depth — quality depth — and a reunion with Warren would strengthen one of those final two bullpen spots. Maybe he can’t be a true sixth starter, but he can be a long guy. The Yankees know Warren and Warren knows the Yankees. As the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen, the Yankees could do a heck of a lot worse than a third stint with Warren.