2018 Wild Card Game Archives - River Avenue Blues

Thoughts following the 2018 AL Wild Card Game

October 4, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees are heading to the ALDS. Last night they beat the Athletics in a Wild Card Game that was a tad less stressful than last year’s. Up next? The Red Sox. Fun fun fun. I don’t self-promote much, but I did an inning-by-inning breakdown of the battle of the bullpens over at CBS, so check that out. Now here are some thoughts following the Wild Card Game win.

1. Man was Luis Severino electric in the first inning last night. Electric in the first inning and then a grind in innings two through four (and change). Last year the Wild Card Game got away from him. Brian Dozier hit the leadoff home run and everything kinda spiraled out of control. Things could’ve unraveled on Severino this year — after the Matt Olson walk in the second, or the Miguel Andujar error, or walk to load the bases in the fourth — but it didn’t. He had to grind it out against a very good A’s team and he got those big outs to preserve that early 2-0 lead. I’m proud of Severino. I know it’s cheesy, but he’s had a lot of ups and downs in his career already, and last year’s Wild Card Game was most definitely a down. While needing 87 pitches to fight through four innings is nothing to write home about, that game last night is what separates great pitchers from good pitchers. The Athletics would’ve knocked a lesser pitcher all around the ballpark if he didn’t have his good command, which Severino did not. Real happy with Severino. That was a character-building start.

2. I get the sense what we saw last night will be The Formula™ going forward. By that, I mean the Yankees will look to get their starter through four innings, maybe five, before beginning to think about the bullpen in earnest. Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees will happily take eight dominant innings each night. Going forward though, I think Aaron Boone & Co. are going to go into each game hoping to get four innings from their starter. If they get more than that, great. If they get less, well, they’ll have to figure it out. Four innings seems like the magic number. The Yankees were able to navigate those final five innings with their bullpen last night and they didn’t even have to use Chad Green (or Jonathan Holder). Green started getting loose in the eighth inning after Khris Davis socked the home run but he did not pitch. Getting five quality innings from your bullpen without even having to use a guy like Green is pretty excellent. The Yankees did it last night and they may try to do it again going forward. Four innings seems like the magic number. If the Yankees get four innings from their starter, they’re in excellent shape.

3. Now, that said, I really do hope Boone has a quicker hook going forward. I hate going batter-to-batter so much. Joe Girardi did it all the time and it drove me nuts. And yes, I know that sometimes going batter-to-batter works. It happens a lot. But I still don’t like it. Especially in the postseason. Last night Boone sent Severino back out for the fifth inning after it looked like he put everything he had into striking out Marcus Semien to strand the bases loaded in the fourth inning — whatever was left in the tank sure looked it got used up during that scream and fist pump, eh? — and it nearly cost him. Severino went out for the fifth inning and before you knew it, the A’s had back-to-back singles and the tying run was on base with no outs. Do not like. Boone had a slow hook at times during the regular season and it cost him a few times. It didn’t cost him last night, fortunately. I hope we see a quicker hook going forward. Don’t try to squeeze outs when the starter’s pitch count is elevated, especially after he had to battle like Severino last night. Just go to the bullpen and let one of your very good relievers start the inning fresh. Just because they can work out of jams doesn’t mean they should have to do it every game.

4. The middle of the order was awesome last night. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both went deep, Aaron Hicks had the run-scoring double, and American Hero Luke Voit had that insane triple. The 2-3-4-5 hitters went a combined 5-for-14 (.357) with two doubles, a triple, two homers, two walks, six runs scored, and six runs driven in. To win the World Series, you need to get unexpected contributed from someone. The last guy in the bullpen has to come up huge in extra innings or the No. 9 hitter has to have a big game at the plate. Something like that. But your best players have to be your best players, and last night they were for the Yankees. Judge’s power is returning following the wrist injury, and gosh, I don’t know what more there is to say about Voit at this point. He looks more and more legit each and every game. That eight-pitch at-bat against Blake Treinen was something else. Voit fouled away three of those upper-90s hellsinkers with two strikes, then got a pitch out over the plate and drove it the other way. It was a great at-bat against a great pitcher. The Yankees beat the A’s last night because their best players were their best players. That means Judge, Stanton, Severino, Dellin Betances, and yes, Voit as well. The Yankees will need those dudes to continue having games like that, and they’ll need other guys to step up and provide sneak attack contributions as well. You can’t win the World Series without ’em.

5. The corner infield defense is so bad. My goodness. Andujar is a major liability at third base and Voit’s not exactly Keith Hernandez at first base either. He threw away a potential 3-6-3 double play ball last night — Voit was on the field working on that specific play before the game too — and also failed to scoop a scoop-able ball on Andujar’s error as well. The corner infield defense is a major weakness and something the Yankees will have to look to address in the offseason. At this point though, they can only roll with what they have, and Andujar and Voit are too valuable at the plate to take them out of the lineup because of their glove. Boone was aggressive last night and put Adeiny Hechavarria at third base in the sixth (!) inning. He’s never done that. Andujar’s been coming out for defense in the ninth inning for weeks now. But the sixth? Never. That might be the new normal. Get Andujar his three at-bats and pull him for defense. It’s a Catch-22 though. If the game is close, you want Andujar to get that extra at-bat. But, if the game is close, you don’t want to risk having him out there defensively. Not great. Hopefully Andujar mashes enough to make the bad defense easier to swallow, which is exactly what he did all regular season.

Yankees 7, Athletics 2: Bring on the Red Sox

October 3, 2018 by Mike

Now the real postseason can begin. The Yankees out-homered and out-bullpened the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game on Wednesday night to punch their ticket to the ALDS. The final score was 7-2. After a 162-game regular season, the slate has been wiped clean. The Yankees and Red Sox will open the ALDS on Friday with identical 0-0 records.

The Opener
The Yankees opened the scoring against the opener. They struck real quick for a first inning 2-0 lead. Andrew McCutchen drew a five-pitch walk to begin the bottom of the first inning — McCutchen had 22 walks in 25 regular season games with the Yankees — and then Liam Hendriks caught a little too much of the plate with a fastball to Aaron Judge, who promptly deposited it into the left field seats.

That home run was great for a few reasons. First and foremost, it gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead in the Wild Card Game! Hooray! Secondly, Judge became the first player ever with home runs in multiple Wild Card Games. He went deep in last year’s game, remember. That’s pretty cool. Thirdly, that was an inside fastball — a 96.4 mph inside fastball at that — that Judge got around on and pulled to left field. Judge hit 18 of his 27 regular season home runs against fastballs. Look at the spray chart:

As good as he is and as strong as he is, Judge didn’t pull fastballs to left field for home runs often this season. He usually drove them the other way. It was good to see him get around on that fastball and pull it with authority.

And fourth (fourthly?), Judge hit that ball 116.1 mph. That was not only his hardest hit ball since coming back from the wrist injury (by four miles an hour!), it was his hardest hit ball since June 4th, nearly two months before the injury. It was also the hardest hit postseason ball since Statcast became a thing in 2015. Good gravy. Just like that, the Yankees had a 2-0 lead.

The Ferrari Is Out Of The Garage
The first inning of the 2017 Wild Card Game was a disaster for Luis Severino. Three runs, one out. A total disaster. The first inning of the 2018 Wild Card Game was pretty much the exact opposite of that. Two strikeouts and a ground ball. Dominance. Severino was electric in that first inning and so was the Yankee Stadium crowd. As David Cone says, Severino is a Ferrari, and you can’t leave the Ferrari in the garage. That inning was why.

Things did not come easily for Severino after that first inning, however. He walked Matt Olson with one out in the second inning — Olson worked a nine-pitch at-bat and fouled away three two-strike pitches — and went to three full counts that innings. Severino walked another batter in the third inning and, at one point, he went to a full count five times in the span of seven batters. He kept the A’s off the board (and out of the hit column), but they were making Severino work for it.

The fourth inning was all set up for second guessing. After Jed Lowrie flew out on the first pitch, Khris Davis hit a ground ball to third, and Miguel Andujar’s throw short-hopped Luke Voit at first base. He was unable to make the scoop. A few things here. One, Andujar had plenty of time and still short-hopped the throw. Pretty bad. Two, it looked like a ball the first baseman should scoop. Not exactly Voit’s finest moment in the field.

And three, it was the third ground ball hit by the A’s and the third wild throw by the Yankees. Matt Chapman hit a chopper to Andujar in the first inning and his throw pulled Voit off the bag, though he was able to apply the tag. In the third, Nick Martini hit a potential 3-6-3 (or 3-6-1) double play ball to Voit, but his throw was wide of second base, and Didi Gregorius had to stretch to make the catch. The Yankees got an out on that, but just one.

Andujar’s error put Davis on first base with one out. Severino then walked Olson on six pitches to put runners on first and second with one out. The Yankees still led at the time. After the walk, I looked out to the bullpen to see whether anyone was warming up. Nothing. Seemed … questionable. Severino did get Stephen Piscotty to fly out to right field for the second out, but he then walked Ramon Laureano to load the bases. He walked him after being ahead in the count 0-2 as well, which is extra bad.

The Yankees were up 2-0 but the A’s had the bases loaded with two outs, Severino was laboring, and the infield was throwing the ball all over the place. It was only then that Dellin Betances (!) started warming up. It seemed like Aaron Boone was giving Severino too long a leash. Fortunately, Severino struck out Marcus Semien to strand the bases loaded. Threw a fastball right by him and then let out a ferocious scream and fist pump.

I noted this in the game thread: The A’s were the worst hitting team against 95+ mph fastballs during the regular season. They had the worst AVG, the worst SLG, and the worst wOBA. They can’t handle the heat. Severino’s pitch to strike out Semien was 99.6 mph. It was his fastest pitch of the night. There is definitely something to be said for the art of pitching. Sometimes though, you just need to throw a fastball by a hitter.

I thought Severino was done after the fourth inning. He’d thrown 81 pitches through four innings, the A’s were working him hard, and he appeared to empty the tank against Semien. That scream after the strikeout looked like it took whatever was left out of him. Instead, Boone sent Severino back out for the fifth, and he promptly allowed back-to-back singles. Sigh. We’ll get to that in a bit. Severino’s line: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K on 87 pitches. Stud.

The Redemption of Dellin Betances
Last year Betances was so far out of the Circle of Trust™ that he did not even warm up in the Wild Card Game. The Yankees needed 8.2 innings from their bullpen in last year’s Wild Card Game and Dellin never even warmed up. Even Chasen Shreve warmed up in the late innings. Not Betances though. That’s how far out of the picture he was after his late season control issues.

In this year’s Wild Card Game, Dellin was the very first reliever out of the bullpen. He had an excellent regular season and, in what was truly the biggest moment of the game, Boone wanted Betances on the mound. This was the scene after Severino allowed those back-to-back singles to open the fifth inning:

The Yankees were up 2-0 in the fifth inning.
The Athletics had runners on first and second with no outs.
The 2-3-4 hitters (Chapman, Davis, Olson) were due up.
This was a winner-take-all game.

“We wanted Dellin for that part of the order,” said Boone after the game. Betances came in, and two fly balls and a strikeout later, the inning was over. The runners never advanced. He then struck out two in a scoreless sixth inning as well. Six up, six down. Betances had not entered a game as early as the fifth inning since 2014 (!) and he hadn’t thrown two full innings since May 23rd. He did both in the Wild Card Game on Wednesday. Love it. Go Dellin.

Tack-On Runs
I have to say, I did not expect the Yankees to break the game open against Blake Treinen. Fernando Rodney? Yeah, I could buy that. But Treinen? A’s skipper Bob Melvin made the curious decision to go to Rodney in the sixth inning against the 2-3-4 hitters. Four pitches and back-to-back doubles later, Judge and Aaron Hicks added an insurance run and the Yankees took a 3-0 lead. Hooray for that.

After Rodney threw a first pitch wild pitch to Giancarlo Stanton to move Hicks to third with no outs, Melvin went to Treinen, his All-Star closer and owner of 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) with 31.8% strikeouts and 51.9% ground balls in 80.1 regular season innings. Treinen was ridiculous this year. My question: If you’re willing to use Treinen as early as the sixth inning, why not let him face Judge to start the inning? Oh well. Not my problem.

Treinen walked Stanton to put runners on the corners with no outs — Giancarlo worked an eight-pitch at-bat (the last seven pitches against Treinen) and fouled away two two-strike pitches, which seemed to indicate Treinen was not razor sharp — and then American Hero Luke Voit dug in. Holy moly, what an at-bat. It was the kind of at-bat that makes you think Voit is for real. Nine pitches, three two-strike foul balls against Treinen hellsinkers, then a two-run triple (!) off the right field wall. It was nearly a homer.

Good gravy what an at-bat. Yankee Stadium was rocking. And you know what? I totally called that. Not exactly, but close enough. I predicted a two-run double for Voit in the sixth inning. He hit a two-run triple in the sixth inning instead. Shoulda stopped at second to make me look smart, Luke. Fortunately, he did not stop at second, and Gregorius drove him in with a sacrifice fly for a 6-0 lead. Replays confirmed Voit slid around the tag.

Melvin did what he had to do and he maxed out Treinen in the winner-take-all game. Treinen threw 42 pitches to get six outs. Stanton hit his 42nd and final pitch damn near to the moon for an eighth inning solo home run. Giancarlo’s home runs are just different, man. He hit that ball as high as I’ve seen a baseball hit at Yankee Stadium. Towering doesn’t even begin to describe it. That homer was 117.4 mph off the bat, by the way. Judge set a new postseason exit velocity record in the first inning. That record lasted seven innings.

Treinen’s final line: 2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR on 42 pitches. Never would’ve expected that. Treinen allowed more earned runs Wednesday night (three) than he allowed in the entire second half (two in 32.1 innings). He had not allowed more than one earned run in any game this season. Not once. You have to go back to September 4th of last season for the last time he allowed multiple earned runs. June 29th of last season was the last time he allowed as many as three earned runs in a game. The Yankees can’t hit good pitching tho.

Leftovers
The four-run sixth inning to break the game open make life easy on Boone. David Robertson threw the seventh, Zach Britton threw the eighth, and Aroldis Chapman threw the ninth. Britton allowed a short porch two-run home run to Davis to give the A’s some life — Boone did use him against the middle of the lineup — but Stanton answered right back with the homer. Robertson got some help from Adeiny Hechavarria, who replaced Andujar for defense in the sixth (!) inning.

Judge reached base three times (homer, double, walk) and Stanton reached base twice (homer, walk). That pleases me. Andujar had an infield single and a walk. McCutchen drew a walk, Hicks had a double, and Gregorius had an infield single. Five the team’s seven hits went for extra bases (two doubles, one triple, two homers). The A’s went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

And finally, since I’m pretty sure this will be ignored everywhere, allow me to point out Gary Sanchez blocked the crap out of the ball behind the plate Wednesday. “I just thought his focus and just seeing him today when he came in, just love the look in his eye and his intent and his purpose … He was a big factor for us to be able to hold down a really good offense,” said Boone after the game.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head over to ESPN for the box score and MLB for the video highlights. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The American League Division Series. Yankees vs. Red Sox. I will love it and hate it at the same time. The series opens Friday night at Fenway Park. Chris Sale will start for the BoSox. The Yankees haven’t announced their starter yet — that should happen at Thursday’s workout — but I have to think it’ll be J.A. Happ in Game One and Masahiro Tanaka in Game Two. We’ll see.

2018 AL Wild Card Game: Athletics at Yankees

October 3, 2018 by Mike

For the first time in baseball history, a 100-win team is playing in a Wild Card Game. MLB sees that as a feature, not a bug. Tonight, the 100-62 Yankees take on the 97-65 Athletics for the right to face the 108-54 Red Sox. This is Game 7 without the hassle of Games 1-6. Winner advances, loser goes home.

The Yankees have done the Wild Card Game thing before. A few too many times for my liking, in fact. The Yankees lost the 2015 Wild Card Game to the Astros and they beat the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game. Maybe mix in a division title one of these years? Could be cool. Anyway, the nerves have been building throughout the day. At this point, I’m just ready to get this thing started. Let’s go.

If nothing else, the Yankees go into tonight’s winner-take-all game playing well. They went 9-4 in their final 13 regular season games and scored 88 runs in those 13 games. Geez. Almost seven runs per game, on average. The Athletics went 7-7 in their final 14 regular season games. A little stumble to the finish. Doesn’t make me feel any better about tonight though. A few quick notes before the game:

Yankee Stadium joins PNC Park as the only ballparks to host three Wild Card Games. The 2013-15 NL Wild Card Games were in Pittsburgh. The 2015, 2017, and 2018 AL games were in the Bronx.
Luis Severino will become the third pitcher (and first right-hander) to start two Wild Card Games, joining Jon Lester (2014, 2018) and Madison Bumgarner (2014, 2016). Two Wild Card Game starts for Bumgarner, two complete-game shutouts. What a beast.
Andrew McCutchen will become the first player to play in four Wild Card Games. He played in those 2013-15 games with the Pirates. Neil Walker can also play in his fourth Wild Card Game if he comes off the bench. He played in those 2013-15 games with the Pirates as well.
The A’s ranked dead last with a .262 wOBA against 95+ mph fastballs this season. That suggests Severino and the bullpen are a good matchup for Oakland’s lineup. We’ll see.

An entire 162-game season hangs in the balance tonight. The Yankees and Athletics had the third and fourth best records in baseball this season, respectively, and one of them is going home tonight. Hardly seems fair, but, if you don’t like it, win more ballgames. Here are tonight’s starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Luke Voit
6. SS Didi Gregorius
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. C Gary Sanchez
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

RHP Luis Severino

Oakland Athletics
1. LF Nick Martini
2. 3B Matt Chapman
3. 2B Jed Lowrie
4. DH Khris Davis
5. 1B Matt Olson
6. RF Stephen Piscotty
7. CF Ramon Laureano
8. SS Marcus Semien
9. C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Liam Hendriks

Pretty great night for a ballgame in the Bronx. It is mostly clear and cool with a nice breeze. Good timing for this game. It rained pretty hard last night and it’s supposed to rain tomorrow night too. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08pm ET — the baseline introductions will begin around 7:40pm ET, though I’m not sure if they’ll be shown on television — and you can watch on TBS. You can also stream the game on TBS.com. Enjoy the game, folks. Have your barf bag ready.

Closer Update: Aroldis Chapman will be the closer tonight, according to Aaron Boone. I had a feeling they wanted him to be the guy.

Guest Post: 2018 AL Wild Card Game Umpire Review

October 3, 2018 by Mike

The following is a guest post from Adam Seth Moss, who’s written tons of guest posts over the years.

The American League Wild Card Game is here again and so is the posting of the umpire review. This is sometimes an exercise in futility given there is only one umpire whose strike zone we have to focus on, but given the fact that umpires in the Wild Card Game are likely to appear later in the postseason, it will be useful anyway. So, without further ado, here are the six umpires that will be officiating the game between Oakland and New York.

Jim Wolf – No. 28 (HP)

The older brother of former journeyman pitcher Randy Wolf, the 48-year-old Jim Wolf is our home plate umpire for the game. Jim Wolf’s strike zone is the definition of a hitters’ umpire. The statistical analysis of his strike zone backs it up. In 32 games behind the plate, Wolf’s ERA is 4.48, tied with Todd Tichenor for 14th highest in baseball this season. The strike zone Wolf has leads to 9.1 hits per 9 innings, 3.3 walks per 9 innings and 8.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. The 8.3 is extremely low for most umpires. (There are lower, such as Tom Woodring with 8.1 and Ben May with 8.0.) Batters have a .262/.331/.422 batting line with Wolf behind the plate and those numbers match a hitters ump.

Wolf, a native of West Hills, California, made his MLB debut on September 2, 1999 working as part of a National League crew featuring Phil Cuzzi, Alfonso Marquez, and Brian Gorman. Wolf umpired a game at 3rd base between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies at one of the last games at Candlestick Park for baseball. Wolf has something unusual: no ejections this season. In fact, he has never ejected a Yankee. If there is a rare heave ho in a Wild Card, the Yankees are not getting it from Wolf.

Greg Gibson – No. 53 (1B)

Greg Gibson is the first base umpire in the Wild Card Game. This might likely be his last postseason in baseball as all signs point to him retiring after the 2018 season. He is about to hit the pension level of 20 years in umpiring and already runs a State Farm branch in Kentucky. Gibson’s strike zone is pretty average, with a 4.04 ERA in 31 games behind the plate. That is tied for 52nd with Ryan Blakney. Batters have a 8.7/H9, 3.0/BB9 and 7.9/K9 (really small and low) batting line. Batters only have a .254/.320/.420 batting line, which is average, leaning towards hitters.

The native of Ironton, Ohio made his major league debut on June 14, 1997 at the old Busch Stadium in St. Louis in an interleague game between the Cardinals and the Indians. He was part of Paul Runge’s crew, with Brian Gibbons and Paul Schreiber. Gibson has 81 career ejections since his MLB debut, none of which were against the New York Yankees. Gibson has four ejections this year (Brandon Hyde, Brandon Belt, Juan Soto and Kevin Long). If this is his last go around, props to a wonderful career for Greg Gibson.

Gerry Davis – No. 12 (CC / 2B)

Gerry Davis is the crew chief, and until Tuesday afternoon, there was no one announced otherwise. An umpire and sports gear aficionado, Davis is one of the most veteran members of the game of baseball. Behind only Joe West in tenure, Davis has served as an umpire for 37 seasons. Davis worked 28 games behind the plate for the 2018 season, and he has a 4.21 ERA for the season. That is good enough for 37th of 89 umpires. His numbers though, lean toward the hitter. Scouting reports note he has one of the smallest strike zones in the game of baseball. The numbers are in some agreement of that. Batters have a 8.0/H9, 3.2/BB9 (high) and 8.4/K9 line with .236/.307/.407. The on-base percentage will be high with Davis behind the plate.

The native of St. Louis, Missouri, Davis now lives out in the western United States. He made his MLB debut on June 9, 1982 at Olympic Stadium as part of the late Frank Pulli’s crew, which included Jerry Crawford and Sicily-native Nick Colosi. Davis has 85 career ejections, including two this season. However, his most famous Yankee ejection came on April 23, 2014 when he tossed Michael Pineda for the pine tar on his neck. He also is the one who ejected Adrian Beltre for moving the on-deck circle, which showed up the umpire. Humorously, his next to ejections were of Joe Girardi in August 2014 and Bob Melvin that same month. Davis is one of my favourite umpires in the game. Hopefully he has an ALCS assignment.

Alan Porter – No. 64 (3B)

Alan Porter is our third base umpire in the Wild Card Game. Yay, more hitters umpires. If this were the American League Division Series, we would be in business with hitters zones. If Wolf’s strike zone wasn’t small enough, Porter has an 8.4/H9, 3.2/BB9 and 8.7/K9 strike zone. Do not expect much of a strike zone of questionable calls. Batters have a .247/.318/.434 batting line this season with Porter behind the plate in 30 games. That is an excellent hitters line, especially in the on-base percentage.

The native of Chestnut Hill, Philadelphia made his MLB debut on April 5, 2010 at PNC Park in a game between the Pirates and the Dodgers. That game he worked under John Hirschbeck’s crew, with Larry Vanover and Mark Carlson. Andrew McCutchen was in that game. Porter has 26 major league ejections in his short career, with four this season alone. Two are of the Yankees, one of which was this year. This year, he ejected Josh Bard on April 27 after a questionable strike three call. In 2015, he also ejected Joe Girardi for a check swing call.

Will Little – No. 93 (LF)

Five for five in average or hitters umpires. Will Little is the left field umpire for the Wild Card Game. Literally right above Gerry Davis in ERA (4.22) and a 1.30 WHIP, Little is another hitters specialty. Batters with Little behind the plate have an 8.5/H9, 3.2/BB9 and 8.4/K9 line. Hitters are batting .246/.312/.400 with Little behind the plate. Again, great numbers if this were a full series rather than just one game.

However, the heave-ho would be an accurate description of Will Little. He made his MLB debut on June 24, 2013 in a game between the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles as part of Ted Barrett’s crew. A native of Fall Branch, Tennessee, Little has racked up 29 ejections in six seasons, including eight this season. 28 of the 29 ejections are over balls and strikes or a check swing. The only one that has not been for that was ejecting Mike Matheny on August 1, 2014 for a balk call. The irony is that most of the calls in 2018 were correctly called.

Pat Hoberg – No. 31 (RF)

Well, we get 6 for 6 for umpires whose strike zones tend to favour hitters. Pat Hoberg is our right field umpire in the Wild Card Game, which is his first postseason assignment. (We may have Gibson in his last and have Hoberg in his first.) Batters have a 4.21 ERA (tied with Gerry Davis and John Tumpane) and a 1.32 WHIP with Hoberg behind the plate. The strike zone definition here is: miniscule. Batters have an 8.3/H9, 3.6/BB9 (!!!) and an 8.1/K9 rate. That strike zone is small. Really small. Batters have a .243/.317/.406 batting line, which backs it up.

The native of Des Moines, Iowa made his MLB debut on March 31, 2014 at Chase Field in a barn burner between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks as part of Tom Hallion’s crew. He has 16 career ejections, including 3 this year. He got some unintended airtime for ejecting Seth Maness, Yadier Molina and Mike Matheny in back to back games. No one was happy with him. The Yankees should remember Hoberg, he was the man who gave Aaron Boone his first ejection of the 2018 season and as Yankee manager. (For those wondering, Boone’s last ejection was in June 2007 for fighting.) Hoberg worked as part of Davis’ crew during the regular season, so no surprise they are together again.

Conclusion

Well, as I have repeated again and again, the Yankees would in the benefit of not one, not two, but six strike zones that all favour hitters if this were a full postseason. Hopefully if they advance, we get to see some of them again. If they do advance, Angel Hernandez awaits in Boston.

Regardless of inning, Zach Britton should face the middle of the A’s lineup in the Wild Card Game

October 3, 2018 by Mike

Oddly enough, one lingering question going into tonight’s Wild Card Game is who’s going to close for the Yankees? It’s a question rather than a problem. The Yankees have about five relievers who could handle the ninth inning, if necessary. We just don’t know who Aaron Boone will use in a save situation tonight.

Since returning from his month-long stint on the disabled list Aroldis Chapman has pitched mostly in the seventh and eighth innings as he works to get back into a groove. His first outing back was a mess. Three runs in two-thirds of an inning and he was all over the place. In four games since, Chapman has not allowed a hit, and he’s struck out eight of 13 batters. That’ll work.

Zach Britton has filled in at closer recently and he’s been excellent, though in two games against the Red Sox the defense refused to turn double plays behind him. Britton has allowed two earned runs in his last 17 appearances and 17.2 innings. Opponents hit .145/.206/.194 against him in those 17.2 innings. The further he’s gotten from the Achilles injury, the better he’s been. A graph:

Britton did not have a normal Spring Training following that Achilles injury. He’s gradually regained velocity on his trademark sinker and, as that’s happened, his ground ball rate has climbed. Britton posted a 77.8% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That is both outrageously good and right in line with his 77.7% ground ball rate from 2015-17. That’s what Britton does. He gets ground balls.

“Arm-wise, I can’t tell you how great my arm feels compared to any other year since I’ve been in the majors,” said Britton to Dan Martin during yesterday’s workout. “Maybe when I was 18 in the minors. I think the time off and wasn’t able to work out and I just rested helped.”

As noted this morning, Aaron Boone has said he’s open to letting Britton close in the postseason. It kinda depends how Chapman felt and looked as he returned from the knee injury, and, aside from that first appearance, Chapman was lights out. The triple-digit velocity wasn’t there, but he used his slider effectively and pitched very well, including in a save situation Saturday.

My hunch is the Yankees want Chapman to close in the postseason. They want him to be the guy at the end of games, which would free up Britton to pitch in other situations. Marc Carig wrote a great piece about the tools the Yankees use to determine bullpen matchups recently. It’s behind the paywall, so I can’t give away too much, but this part stuck out to me:

The concept itself is not new. There’s no shortage of publicly-available data to expose which hitters might have trouble against cutters buried in on the hands, or two-seamers that nick the corners. But the Yankees have used their blend of data to tailor those projections. With their tools, it’s possible to estimate a hitters’ performance not against just two-seam fastballs in general, but two-seam fastballs thrown by Britton, or curveballs thrown by Robertson, or sliders thrown by Chapman. Specific velocity and spin is taken into account and matched up to a hitters’ bat path, which can also be precisely measured.

Given that information, computers can simulate an expected result. From there, game plans can be formulated, strategies mapped out, scenarios anticipated. If they choose, pitchers can use those insights in their own preparation. Fearing overload, many of the Yankees’ relievers prefer to steer clear. But since coming from the Orioles, Britton has embraced the data, which he called far more detailed than what was available to him in Baltimore. In some cases, the projections have contradicted his instincts. In others, they have only reinforced the game plan he had already formulated.

Pretty cool! I remember reading something last year that explained the Indians essentially simulated and projected Edwin Encarnacion’s season before signing him. They used all the Trackman data and all sorts of neat stuff to map out the schedule, and the pitchers Encarnacion might face, and the possible weather patterns. They baked all that into the cake, projected Encarnacion’s production, and used it to determine whether he was worth signing. And, obviously, he was.

According to Carig, the Yankees do something similar with their bullpen matchups. They project how their relievers, with their individual stuff, match up against specific hitters. It’s pretty cool. Ultimately, it’s up to the pitcher to perform. The system may say David Robertson is the best matchup against Khris Davis in tonight’s Wild Card Game, but if Robertson hangs a curveball, Davis will hit it to the moon. Make the most informed decision and hope it all works out on the field, basically.

Anyway, I mention this because it seems possible the best way to use Britton tonight will be against the middle of the Athletics lineup, rather than as the closer. Maybe the middle of the lineup comes up in the ninth and this all works out nice and easy. But what if they come up in the seventh inning in a one-run game? Or in the eighth? The A’s have several extreme fly ball and home run hitters in their lineup. Their standard middle of the order:

3. Jed Lowrie: 33.2% grounders and 23 homers
4. Khris Davis: 35.3% grounders and 48 homers
5. Matt Olson: 35.9% grounders and 29 homers

One-hundred-and-forty players had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title this year. Among those 140 players Lowrie had the seventh lowest ground ball rate, Davis had the 20th lowest ground ball rate, and Olson had the 25th lowest ground ball rate. They are three of the most extreme fly ball hitters in baseball. Fly balls tend to be rewarded at Yankee Stadium.

Britton, meanwhile, is an extreme ground ball pitcher. The most extreme ground ball pitcher in baseball when he’s on and he’s been on these last few weeks. The matchup makes perfect sense on paper. The Yankees should use their very good ground ball reliever against the very good fly ball hitters in the middle of the A’s lineup. Right? Right. Maybe it doesn’t work out. Maybe Britton leaves up a pitch up and gets burned. Or maybe the A’s beat him with ground ball singles. It’s baseball. You can do everything right and still get beat.

What does the Yankees’ proprietary matchup system say about Britton vs. Lowrie/Davis/Olson? Beats me. I’d love to know. Here are three heat maps showing where each guy hits the ball the hardest — by that I mean fly balls or line drives with a 95 mph exit velocity or better — against left-handed pitchers. It’s Lowrie, Davis, and Olson from left-to-right (click to embiggen):

If you’re a lefty, you need to keep the ball down against the switch-hitting Lowrie. Against the right-handed hitting Davis, the best spot for a lefty is down and in. Elevate the ball too much on the outer half and he’ll drive it the other way. Olson is a left-handed hitter. Looks like a left-handed pitcher has to pitch him away. Britton and his sinker appear to be a good matchup candidate against those three. Perhaps the Yankees see it differently.

We still don’t know who will close for the Yankees tonight and it’s not because they lack options. I think they want it to be Chapman, but, if he’s not where he needs to be following the knee injury, it could be Britton. Boone’s bullpen usage will not happen on a whim. There’s a lot that goes into these decisions, and it’s possible Britton is most valuable to the Yankees as a middle of the A’s lineup specialist tonight, rather than as a closer. And, if that is the case, it won’t matter whether he pitches the seventh or eighth or ninth, as long as he faces the right hitters.

2018 Wild Card Game Preview: Oakland Athletics

October 3, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The playoffs are here! This win or go home match-up features the third and fourth best teams in baseball by record (or fourth and sixth by run differential), and, if prior Wild Card Games are any indication, it’s poised to be extraordinarily exciting.

So who’s ready for a night of stressful baseball? I know I am.

The Season Series

The Yankees and A’s met six times this year, splitting the season series three games apiece; both teams took two of their three home games. The A’s outscored the Yankees 33 to 28, with that edge coming from their last meeting of the regular season, which the A’s won 8-2. Four of the six games were decided by at least four runs, with the only close game coming way back on May 12; it was an extra innings affair that the Yankees won 7-6 thanks to a Neil Walker walk-off single.

Luis Severino faced the A’s in both series. The first time, at Yankee Stadium, he pitched quite well – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. The next time around, things didn’t go quite so well, as he surrendered 6 runs (5 earned) in 2.2 IP. It was, by Game Score, his worst start of the season. Here’s hoping for more of the former than the latter.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since these teams met a month ago; the A’s are essentially at full strength.

Their 2018 Season

The A’s finished 97-65 with a +139 run differential, and it was basically a tale of two seasons for them. They sat at 29-28 with a -7 run differential heading into June, which was in-line with most of the projection systems out there. From June 1 forward, however, they went 68-37 with a +146 run differential – and looked downright unbeatable at times.

Painting in broad strokes, the A’s were a well-rounded team this year, finishing tied for second in wRC+ (110 as a team), 10th in ERA+ (109), and 10th in defensive runs saved (+25).

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Bob Melvin settled on a rough draft of a lineup over the last dozen or so games of the season, and it looks something like this:

Nick Martini, LF – .296/.397/.414, 1 HR, 0 SB, 129 wRC+ (179 PA)
Matt Chapman, 3B – .278/.356/.508, 24 HR, 1 SB, 137 wRC+ (616 PA)
Jed Lowrie, 2B – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+ (680 PA)
Khris Davis, DH – .247/.326/.549, 48 HR, 0 SB, 135 wRC+ (654 PA)
Matt Olson, 1B – .247/.335/.453, 29 HR, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ (660 PA)
Stephen Piscotty, RF – .267/.331/.491, 27 HR, 2 SB, 125 wRC+ (605 PA)
Ramon Laureano, CF – .288/.358/.474, 5 HR, 7 SB, 129 wRC+ (176 PA)
Marcus Semien, SS – .255/.318/.388, 15 HR, 14 SB, 95 wRC+ (703 PA)
Jonathan Lucroy, C – .241/.291/.325, 4 HR, 0 SB, 70 wRC+ (454 PA)

Mark Canha (113 wRC+ in 411 PA) is their lefty-masher off the bench, and Chad Pinder (113 wRC+ in 333 PA) can play almost every position. I reckon that we’ll see both tonight.

The Starting Pitcher We Will See

Liam Hendriks will be starting – or ‘opening’ – for the A’s tonight. He pitched to a 4.13 ERA (102 ERA+) in 24.0 innings in what was a fairly crazy year. He underwent surgery to remove a cyst earlier this year, needed a platelet-rich plasma injection for a torn hip tendon, and was designated for assignment back in June – at which point he had a 7.36 ERA. He didn’t return to the A’s until September 1, but from that point forward he had a 1.38 ERA in 13.0 IP. And his performance was enough for the A’s to trot him out there to kick things off in the Wild Card game.

The 29-year-old righty primarily throws three pitches – a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-to-mid 90s sinker, and a high-80s slider. He’ll mix in a change-up and curve at times, but I don’t think that we’ll see many of those in what should be an ‘air it out’ sort of appearance.

The Bullpen

A’s beat writer Jane Lee believes the team’s game plan for the bullpen may be as follows:

The second through fifth innings will likely call for some combination of Lou Trivino, Shawn Kelley, Yusmeiro Petit and Ryan Buchter. From there, Oakland would roll out setup men Fernando Rodney and Jeurys Familia for one inning apiece ahead of Treinen’s entrance.

Oakland’s bullpen has been a strength throughout the season, but let’s focus on those seven names. These are their numbers solely with the A’s:

Trivino – 74.0 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.92 ERA
Kelley – 16.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.16 ERA
Petit – 93.0 IP, 7.4 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 3.00 ERA
Buchter – 39.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.75 ERA
Rodney – 20.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 3.92 ERA
Familia – 31.1 IP, 11.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 3.45 ERA
Treinen – 80.1 IP, 11.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.78 ERA

That’s a heck of a bullpen, with several dominant arms. Treinen was arguably the best reliever in baseball this year, and the options in front of him vary from solid to great. By WPA this was the best bullpen in baseball, and by fWAR it was fifth – and this is the best sample of that group.

Who (Or What) To Watch

This section feels kind of meaningless, doesn’t it? You’re watching a winner take all game between two well-matched teams – and, if you’re reading this, you’re a big-time fan of one of those teams. That won’t stop me from pointing out a few things, though.

These are two juggernaut bullpens. The Yankees were 1st in fWAR and 3rd in WPA, and match-up well with the A’s from top to bottom. How Melvin and Boone deploy their relievers may well be the determining factor in this game.

These are also two of the most prolific power-hitting teams in baseball, too. The Yankees finished first in home runs and ISO, and the A’s finished third in both – and the A’s play in a park that’s not terribly conducive to power. The Yankees have six players with 20-plus home runs, and the A’s have five.

And there’s a ton of history between these teams, to boot.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

October 3, 2018 by Mike

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.