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Beltran, Betances, Miller selected to 2016 All-Star Game

July 5, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

For the second straight season, the Yankees will have three All-Star representatives. Carlos Beltran, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller were all selected for the 2016 All-Star Game, it was announced Tuesday night. Last year Betances, Mark Teixeira, and Brett Gardner represented the Yankees. Here are the full 2016 All-Star rosters.

Beltran has been far and away the Yankees’ best hitter this season. He owns a .296/.337/.567 (136 wRC+) batting line with 19 homers, seventh most in the AL. Only Mike Trout (169 wRC+), Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+), Jackie Bradley Jr. (141 wRC+), and Michael Saunders (140 wRC+) have been better among AL outfielders. This is Beltran’s ninth All-Star Game and, believe it or not, his first as an AL player. Who knew?

Betances is heading to his third straight All-Star Game even though this feels like the worst of his three full seasons in the big leagues. He’s set the bar rather high. Dellin has a 2.63 ERA (1.17 FIP) with 74 strikeouts in 41 innings. He leads all relievers in strikeouts and fWAR (+2.1), and he’s second in strikeout rate (46.3%). Betances has been insanely good this season. Again.

As for Miller, he is going to his first All-Star Game. He has a 1.47 ERA (1.91 FIP) with 66 strikeouts in only 36.2 innings. Miller leads all relievers in strikeout rate (48.2%), is second to Betances in strikeouts, and is fourth in fWAR (+1.4). He’s behind Betances, Kenley Jansen (+1.9), and Will Harris (+1.5). Needless to say, Miller is very deserving. I thought he was the only All-Star Game lock among Yankees players.

The Yankees don’t really have a snub for the All-Star Game. Masahiro Tanaka has a case for a spot, but he’s going to start this Sunday, which means he’s ineligible to pitch in the All-Star Game anyway. Brian McCann could have made it given the generally awful crop of AL catchers, but alas. Didi Gregorius has been awesome, though there are too many good shortstops in the AL. Congrats to Beltran, Betances, and Miller. They were all very deserving.

Trade Deadline Notes: Rangers, Nats, Miller, Moore, Hill

July 5, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

With 82 games in the books, the Yankees are 40-42 and 4.5 games back of the second wildcard spot. There are six teams ahead of them in that wildcard race. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a mere 7.0%. Contention is a long shot at this point, which means the trade deadline could be very, very interesting. Buster Olney (sub. req’d) says the Yankees are taking offers right now, which strikes me as the kind of thing they’d do anyway, regardless of their record. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous trade notes with the deadline three weeks and six days away.

Rangers, Nationals, Cubs scouting Yankees relievers

Scouts from the Rangers, Nationals, and Cubs were on hand to see the Yankees’ big three relievers in San Diego over the weekend, reports George King. The Cubs have been on those guys for a while now, but the Rangers and Nationals are new to the party. Then again, it’s not exactly a surprise they’re watching New York’s end-game arms. All three of those clubs are in contention and they all could use varying levels of bullpen help.

I know it seems sorta silly that teams are scouting Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman. It’s not like they need to send a scout to San Diego to tell them they’re awesome. They’re just doing their due diligence though. They want to see if someone’s mechanics have changed or anything like that. Basically, they’re looking for red flags. Everyone knows these guys are great. Is there reason to believe they may suddenly not be great?

Yanks tell Miller they haven’t “discussed or planned” trading him

Should the Yankees decide to sell, their best trade chip is most likely Miller. He’s awesome, he’s signed affordably for another two years, and he’s the ultimate team player. Lots and lots of clubs would love to add him to their roster. For now, the Yankees have told Miller they haven’t “discussed or planned” trading him, writes Barry Bloom.

“The media has been throwing a few things out there, but I’ve had reassurances from them at the times I’ve talked to them that it’s something that hasn’t been discussed or planned for or anything like that,” he said. “I think that’s kind of nice … But I have no trade protection. I’m at the mercy of that what they decide to do. I get it. It’s a business. I want to be here. I want to play here. But it’s impossible to avoid sometimes.”

I’ve seen that quote misconstrued as “the Yankees told Miller they aren’t trading him” and that’s not true. Well, I guess they may have told him that at some point, but that’s not what Miller is saying there. He’s only saying the Yankees have told him they haven’t yet had any trade talks about him. Miller’s not stupid. He knows he’s good and teams are going to want him. It comes with the territory.

Yankees interested in Matt Moore

The Yankees are one of several teams with interest in Rays left-hander Matt Moore, reports Nick Cafardo. Tampa Bay is said to be ready to trade away their starters in an effort to take advantage of the seller’s market. The Rays are are not only in last place, they’re in the middle of a free fall right now. They’ve won only three of their last 19 games and are 10.5 games out of a wildcard spot.

Moore, 27, held the Angels to two runs in 6.2 innings yesterday. He has a 4.54 ERA (4.53 FIP) in 103 innings this year, which is better than the 5.43 ERA (4.82 FIP) he had in 63 innings last season, after returning from Tommy John surgery. Moore is signed super cheap (owed $28.5M through 2019 if the options in his deal are exercised) and he’s got a fantastic arm, but he’s now three years removed from the last time he was even an average starter. I can’t imagine the Rays would be eager to trade with the Yankees either.

Yankees scouting Rich Hill

According to Susan Slusser, the Yankees were among the many teams with a scout in attendance for Rich Hill’s start over the weekend. Hill returned from a groin strain to hold the Pirates to two runs in six innings. The 36-year-old has a 2.31 ERA (2.71 FIP) with a 27.8% strikeout rate in 12 starts and 70 innings this season. Simply put, he’s been one of the best starters in the AL in 2016. Go figure.

Hill, who is signed to a one-year deal worth $6M, figures to be an extremely hot rental commodity at the deadline. He might very well be the best starter traded this summer. In a vacuum, adding Hill to the rotation would make the Yankees a better team. I mean, duh. At this point though, giving up prospects for a 36-year-old rental is pretty much the last thing the Yankees should do at the deadline. They have to build for next year, not continue to fake contention this year.

The Yankees and the 2016 All-Star Game

June 30, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Next Tuesday, MLB will announce the 2016 All-Star Game starters and reserves during a live ESPN broadcast. They’ll announce the entire roster — including the starting position players per the fan voting — with the exception of the final spot, which will be decided through the Final Vote ballot. You remember that, right? Of course you do.

The Yankees are not going to have a starting position player in the All-Star Game for the second straight year, which is no surprise. Their biggest “star” is currently being benched against righties. The Yankees definitely have some players deserving of an All-Star Game nod though, and not just because the rules say every team needs a representative.

In my opinion the Yankees have six players worthy of serious consideration for the All-Star Game. That doesn’t mean all six will get in. In fact, I’d bet on the Yankees only getting one or two All-Stars this year. Three tops. There are only so many roster spots, plus it’s not often a fourth place team sends six players to the All-Star Game. Here are the candidates.

Carlos Beltran

The recent hamstring injury could really throw a wrench into Beltran’s All-Star candidacy. He’s second among all AL outfielders in SLG (.570) — he’s four points behind Mike Trout — and ranks fifth wRC+ (137). His 19 homers are tied for fifth among all AL players, not just outfielders. Beltran’s defense drags down his WAR, though that doesn’t really matter. The All-Star Game has not yet morphed into the Highest WAR Game, thankfully.

Generally speaking six or seven outfielders are named to each All-Star team each year. Beltran won’t be among the three starters voted in by the fans — the starters will probably end up being Trout, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. based on the recent voting updates — and Ian Desmond will certainly be on the bench, leaving the last two or three spots for some combination of Beltran, Mark Trumbo, George Springer, Michael Saunders, and Nelson Cruz. (There could be some others in that mix too.)

On merit, Beltran belongs in the All-Star Game. He has the big power numbers and his track record sure doesn’t hurt either. The question is the hamstring. Right now it’s being called a day-to-day injury, but Joe Girardi said it is “worrisome” that the hamstring was still sore yesterday. If this lingers and causes Beltran to miss more than a few days or even land on the DL, it could put an end to his All-Star chances.

Masahiro Tanaka

You know, Tanaka really doesn’t get enough credit for being on the best pitchers in the league. I’m pretty sure it’s the elbow. Tanaka was an All-Star in 2014, when he was one of the best pitchers in the league, then he hurt his elbow and seemed to disappear from the great pitchers conversation. Even a big chunk of Yankee fans underrate him. Among qualified AL pitchers, Tanaka ranks …

Seventh in bWAR (2.6)
Fourth in fWAR (2.6)
Sixth in innings (104.2)
11th in ERA (3.35)
Fourth in FIP (3.31)
Fifth in WHIP (1.06)
Eighth in K/BB (4.32)

And yes, that includes last night’s dud. Those games happen to everyone. Tanaka has been one of ten best starters in the league, meaning he’s absolutely worthy of All-Star consideration. Is he is a shoe-in? No, but he’s in the conversation. Will Tanaka actually get onto the roster? There’s usually seven or eight starters on the roster, so he might be able to sneak in.

It’s worth noting Tanaka is scheduled to make two more starts before the All-Star break, including one on Saturday, July 9th. That’s the Saturday before the All-Star break. The Yankees are six games into a 17 games in 17 days stretch to close out the first half, and I wonder if they’ll insert a spot sixth starter at some point to give the rotation members an extra day. If they do, Tanaka would instead start Sunday, July 10th, thus ruling him ineligible to pitch in the All-Star Game.

CC Sabathia

I think the last two starts may have doomed Sabathia’s All-Star Game chances. Two starts ago he was sitting on a 2.20 ERA (3.31 FIP) in 65.1 innings, ranking second in the AL in ERA. He was top ten in WAR even after missing two weeks with the groin injury. It’s close to impossible to keep a pitcher with those numbers out of the All-Star Game.

After those last two starts — Sabathia was really good for the first seven innings Tuesday, but the eighth inning happened — Sabathia now has a 3.17 ERA (3.65 FIP) in 76.2 innings. That’s still really good! But it’s probably not All-Star Game good, not even in the AL. Sabathia doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title — he’d rank seventh in ERA if he did — so his lack of innings relative to other All-Star candidates will hurt him, plus he doesn’t rank among the top ten pitchers in anything (except hit batsmen).

Sabathia is going to make one more start before the All-Star rosters are announced and two more starts before the actual All-Star Game. A few extra pitchers are added to the roster each year as injury replacements and replacements for guys who pitch the Sunday before the All-Star break, so maybe Sabathia sneaks in that way. After these last two starts, I don’t think Sabathia gets in. That shiny near-2.00 ERA was his best chance to be an All-Star, and that’s gone.

Andrew Miller & Dellin Betances

I am certain at least one of these two is going to the All-Star Game. It’s definitely possible both are going, though Betances has had a few hiccups throughout the year, which could keep him out. There are generally six or seven relievers on each All-Star roster, and I have a hard time believing there are seven relievers in the AL more deserving than Dellinthis year.

Miller should be a lock for his first career All-Star Game. He’s not a closer, but his numbers are outrageous regardless of role. Miller is second among all relievers with 63 strikeouts (Betances leads with 67) and he’s fifth in WAR, though I’ve long been a believer in WAR underrating high-leverage relievers. Either way, Miller absolutely has All-Star numbers this year. If he doesn’t go the Midsummer Classic this year, when will he?

As for Betances, I think his track record (two-time All-Star) is going to help him, and I get the sense players around the league know how good he is, which could help. A big chunk on the roster is determined by the player vote, remember. Guys like Zach Britton, Sam Dyson, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Will Harris, Alex Colome, Roberto Osuna, Brad Brach, and Craig Kimbrel are also going to be in the mix for the All-Star bullpen. That’s a lot of competition! Maybe Betances will wind up on the Final Vote ballot.

Aroldis Chapman

The performance has been All-Star worthy, I’d say. Thirty-one strikeouts and four walks in 20 innings is pretty crazy. The problem is Chapman’s workload. The guy has thrown 20 innings because of his suspension. He’s 64th among all AL relievers innings, and he’s thrown literally half as many innings as most of the other All-Star worthy relievers. That lack of work is really going to hurt Chapman’s chances to go to the All-Star Game. He has the All-Star reputation and all that, but 20-something innings? Other guys have thrown way more innings and are more deserving. I can’t see Chapman getting in. He simply hasn’t pitched enough.

* * *

I suppose there’s a chance Brian McCann will sneak into the All-Star Game because AL catchers are so collectively terrible, but I feel like he’s been slumping a little too long to get in. (Last night’s game notwithstanding). Didi Gregorius has been awesome, but man, there are way too many good shortstop in the AL. Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts. There are your three AL All-Star shortstops from now through 2020. Sorry Didi. Not happening.

My not-so-bold prediction is the Yankees get two All-Stars this year: Beltran and Miller. Tanaka doesn’t make it and Betances falls victim to the bullpen numbers crunch. I think it’s much more likely Betances sneaks onto the roster than Tanaka, and I think it’s really unlikely Sabathia and Chapman make it to the All-Star Game at this point. Miller’s a lock. He’s been so outrageously good. Everyone else is a maybe, even Beltran because of the hamstring.

What can Andrew Miller tell us about a possible Aroldis Chapman trade?

June 29, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

At some point in the next four weeks, the Yankees will hopefully come to their senses and realize the 2016 Yankees aren’t going anywhere. It would take a massive run to become serious postseason contenders. Something like 20-8 in the 28 games before the trade deadline. That kind of run. Does this team seem capable of doing that? Not at all. Never say never, but … never.

I want the Yankees to win this year. I really do. But the team isn’t cooperating. At some point the focus has to shift from winning right now to winning in the future, and that decision has to be made relatively soon with the trade deadline looming. Should the Yankees sell, their two best trade chips are Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, two impact late-inning relievers wanted by basically every other team in the league.

Chapman will be a free agent after the season, so there figures to be more urgency to move him. Miller is signed for another two years and keeping him is a perfectly viable strategy. Estimating trade value is difficult — especially for an elite player since so few get traded — because so many trades come down to one team liking a player more than everyone else and making a bigger than expected offer. That’s what happened with Shelby Miller over the winter.

The Yankees figure to get a good return for Chapman assuming they make him available, but how good, exactly? That’s where Miller comes in. Two years ago he was an elite reliever due to become a free agent who was traded at the deadline. Miller can help give us an idea what Chapman is worth on the trade market, and I don’t mean just the trade itself. The trades for Miller that didn’t happen can tell us something too. Let’s look.

The Comparison

Might as well start here. At the time of the trade Miller was one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball. He took his game to another level during that 2014 season, and somehow he’s taken it to yet another level with the Yankees. It’s been pretty awesome. Here is Miller’s pre-2014 trade deadline performance and Chapman’s 2016 performance to date.

	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9
Miller in 2014	2.34	1.69	40.6%	7.7%	52.5%	0.43
Chapman in 2016	3.15	1.96	38.8%	5.0%	38.6%	0.90

Miller then was better than Chapman is now. It’s not quite as simple as a half-season worth of numbers in a table though. At the time of his trade, Miller had performed like one of the best relievers in the world for roughly 40 innings. That’s it. He broke out that 2014 season. Chapman has been doing it for years. His track record is far greater than Miller’s was back then, and that means something.

There’s also the salary difference, which isn’t negligible. Miller made only $1.9M during that 2014 season. Chapman is pulling down $11.325M this season. That’s a lot of money to take on at the deadline. Of course, the Yankees could always eat some money to facilitate a trade, and they should be very willing to do so if it means getting a greater return. I don’t think the money will be deal-breaker, but it is something that will factor into talks, no doubt.

I don’t think we can ignore the off-the-field stuff too. Chapman has served his suspension, but the domestic violence case absolutely means there will be a negative PR hit. Maybe not a huge one, many fans don’t seem to care about his incident, but there will be a PR hit. Pick up Chapman and some folks won’t like it. Miller has no such off-the-field issues and is widely seen as pretty much the perfect teammate. The perception of the two is very different and that matters.

Statistically, Miller was having a better season at the time of his trade than Chapman is now, but his track record was not nearly as good. Chapman is more expensive and the domestic violence incident isn’t something that can be ignored. I see 2014 Miller and 2016 Chapman having similar trade value overall despite all the differences. They’re elite rental relievers. Teams are looking at these guys as 20-30 inning pickups, not a long-term addition.

The Initial Ask

What happens when a team makes a player available? They ask for the moon in return. Free agents do it too. The initial ask is always super high. Why? For starters, someone just might pay it. You’re never going to get Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. Scondly, it gives you some wiggle room to come down in negotiations.

According to Jayson Stark, here’s what the Red Sox sought for Miller at the 2014 trade deadline:

(The) two players on that list they’ve priced the highest are Lester and Miller. Officials of two clubs report the Red Sox have asked for one of their top prospects, plus a lesser prospect, just for Miller.

The BoSox set the price high. They initially asked teams for a top prospect plus a second piece for Miller. That’s a lot to seek for a rental reliever, but again, this was only the initial ask. When the time comes to move Chapman, the Yankees should open negotiations with a similar request. Give me a top prospect and a second player or he’ll go to one of the many other interested teams.

Interested Teams

As you’d expect, a whole bunch of teams wanted Miller in 2014. Contenders were the most aggressive. Ken Rosenthal says 10-12 team inquired about Miller, and according to Rosenthal and Nick Cafardo, the four finalists were the Orioles (duh), Tigers, Dodgers, and Brewers. Here are their records on the morning of the 2014 trade deadline.

Brewers: 60-49, 2.0 games up in NL Central (67.1% postseason odds per Baseball Prospectus)
Dodgers: 61-47, 2.5 games up in NL West (97.2% postseason odds)
Orioles: 60-46, 2.5 games up in AL East (77.0% postseason odds)
Tigers: 58-46, 5.0 games up in AL Central (90.4% postseason odds)

Four first place teams made the most serious pushes for Miller. The Brewers collapsed spectacularly in the second half of the 2014 season, but the three other teams went to the postseason. They weren’t looking at Miller as a “get me over the hump and into the playoffs” pickup. He was viewed as a “help me win the World Series” pickup. There’s a difference.

As of this morning, only six teams have postseason odds of 67% of better according to Baseball Prospectus: Cubs (99.8%), Indians (96.5%), Rangers (96.1%), Nationals (94.7%), Giants (90.3%), and Dodgers (80.8%). The Red Sox and Orioles are at 64.0% and 62.8%, respectively, so they’re not too far behind. That’s pretty much the market for Chapman right there. The best of the best. Not bubble teams.

The Actual Trade

When it was all said and done, the Red Sox traded Miller to the Orioles for pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. It was a straight one-for-one trade. Two things stand out about this.

1. They traded him within the division. The Red Sox took what they felt was the best package and sent Miller to a division rival. Some teams aren’t willing to make intradivision deals like that. Obviously it helped that the BoSox were out of it and Miller was only a rental, not someone under control for a few years. It wasn’t going to matter if he helped beat them that season, and he probably wasn’t going to stick around long enough to keep beating them in future years. Trading Chapman, the rental, to the Red Sox would be one thing. Trading Miller and two years of control to the Red Sox would be another.

2. They took the single best player over a package of multiple players. The initial ask was a top prospect and a secondary piece. Boston settled for only the top prospect. Rodriguez was in Double-A at the time of the trade and he really wasn’t pitching all that well: 4.79 ERA (3.52 FIP) with a 19.0% strikeout rate and an 8.0% walk rate in 82.2 innings. Orioles pitching prospects, yo.

Rodriguez went into the 2014 season as a consensus top 100 prospect. Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game while Baseball Prospectus (61st), Baseball America (65th), and MLB.com (68th) all had him a little lower. Neither Law (top 25) nor Baseball America (top 50) ranked Rodriguez in their midseason prospect list a few weeks prior to the trade deadline.

Based on that, the possible return for Chapman could be a top 100 caliber prospect who is reasonably close to the big leagues, but is not a truly elite prospect. Someone in the middle of the top 100. The precedent has been set. Using Baseball America’s 2016 top 100 list as guide, here are some possible targets from the teams mentioned in the previous section:

Cubs: SS Gleybar Torres (No. 41), C Willson Contreras (No. 61)
Indians: OF Clint Frazier (No. 44)
Rangers: RHP Luis Ortiz (No. 64), RHP Dillon Tate (No. 69)
Nationals: none
Giants: IF Christian Arroyo (No. 62)
Dodgers: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger (No. 54)

It goes without saying some of those guys are more attainable than others. There’s basically no chance the small market Indians will trade Frazier for a rental reliever. Contreras is in the big leagues now and making an impact for the Cubs, so forget him too. Also, I would be surprised if the Rangers were willing to discuss their 2015 first round pick (Tate) in a trade so soon. Torres, Ortiz, and Bellinger seem to be the most realistic trade targets.

Keep in mind this is just a “these guys are similar to the guy the Red Sox got for Miller two years ago” list, not a “this is who the Yankees can definitely get for Chapman now” list. The error bars here are pretty large. We’re just trying to get a ballpark idea here.

Bellinger, who is indeed Clay's kid. (Presswire) — Bellinger, who is indeed Clay’s kid. (Presswire)

The Failed Trade

Here’s where it gets interesting. Before completing the deal with the Orioles, the Red Sox actually agreed to trade Miller to the Tigers, but they backed out once the O’s put Rodriguez on the table. Detroit got 2010 Cliff Lee/Justin Smoak’d, basically.

“We thought we had him,” said then Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski to Joel Sherman at the time. “We were disappointed because we offered what (the Red Sox) asked for. Normally when you do that, you get the player. They felt they could do better. That is their prerogative.”

It’s unclear who the Tigers would have traded to the Red Sox for Miller, but reports indicate it was a multi-player package, not a one-for-one deal. Jon Morosi says pitching prospect Austin Kubitza was a name discussed in the deal, though I don’t think he was the center piece. He was a 22-year-old in Low Class-A who was Detroit’s fourth round pick the year prior. Kubitza was likely the second piece.

Miller was traded on deadline day, and a few days earlier the Tigers sent pitching prospects Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel to the Rangers for Joakim Soria. Perhaps that was their Plan B? They offered Thompson and/or Knebel and/or Kubitza for Miller, then moved on to Soria once it was clear the Red Sox were going in another direction? Knebel was just a reliever, but Thompson was in the middle of a breakout season and has since landed on multiple top 100 lists.

Given their willingness to trade Thompson — and the fact their farm system was otherwise short on high-end prospects — it seems like he could have been the center piece in Miller trade talks. He was a 20-year-old kid in High Class-A at the time, so he wasn’t a Rodriguez level prospect, but he was in the process of becoming a top prospect. It wasn’t a secret. Everyone knew it at the time. Kubitza and/or Knebel would have then been the sweeteners.

There’s more than one way to build a trade package. The Red Sox went for the big one-for-one deal, though it seems they also considered a package of lesser prospects as well. The Yankees figure to entertain all offers, and really, it’s going to come down to their preference. One big prospect sounds more attractive, but getting two pieces for Chapman instead could be the best move. I don’t think there’s one right answer here. Both are reasonable.

* * *

The O’s were widely panned for trading Rodriguez for Miller, which means nothing as far as Chapman is concerned. It doesn’t mean clubs will be less willing to trade a top prospect for a rental reliever. Remember, it only takes one team — and one desperate GM or owner — to go out and make that big offer. The Yankees picked up Chapman for peanuts, and now that the uncertainty surrounding his suspension no longer exists, they have a chance to flip him for something really good. The 2014 Miller trade suggests as much.

Rosenthal: Five clubs already lining up for Andrew Miller

June 20, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The trade deadline is now only six weeks away, and unless the Yankees get hot and go on an extended run between now and then, they’re going to have to seriously consider selling. The Yankees are four games back of the second wildcard spot with four teams ahead of them. FanGraphs pegs their postseason odds at 13.8%.

According to Ken Rosenthal (video link), five contending teams are already showing interest in ace lefty reliever Andrew Miller: Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, and Rangers. We’ve already heard that the Giants and Nationals want Miller, and that the Cubbies have been scouting New York’s bullpen. The Dodgers and Rangers are obvious fits too. I have some thoughts on this.

1. Push Chapman on the Nationals. Because Aroldis Chapman will be a free agent after the season, there should be a greater sense of urgency to trade him than Miller, who has two years left on his deal. The Nationals don’t have a history with Chapman but they kinda do. Dusty Baker was his first manager with the Reds and Washington reportedly tried to trade for him this offseason, even after the domestic violence incident. The Yankees just beat them to it. Hopefully the Yankees can exploit that interest, send Chapman to the Nats for a big package, then look to move Miller elsewhere.

2. The Rangers have more to offer than anyone. To me, no team has as much to offer for Miller (or Chapman) as the Rangers. They have both high-end young big leaguers (Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara) and high-profile prospects (Joey Gallo, Chi Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz) to trade, though obviously some are more available than others. I’d be stunned if Texas traded Mazara, and I think it would take a lot to pry Profar loose. Certainly more than a reliever, even a great one like Miller.

That said, Rangers GM Jon Daniels has a history of being aggressive and paying big at the trade deadline. He gave up a lot to get Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza a few years back, most notably. Texas has the best record in the AL (45-25), a huge lead in the AL West (8.5 games), and an awful bullpen (4.76 ERA). I can’t imagine Daniels will not address his relief crew at the deadline. The Yankees have great relievers to offer and the Rangers can offer a lot in return. It’s a really great match.

3. A bidding war between the Giants and Dodgers would be sweet. The Giants have won eight straight games to open a 6.5-game lead in the NL West, and while that is hardly insurmountable in mid-June, it sure is better than being neck-and-neck. You know the Dodgers don’t want to fall behind any further. Both teams have some bullpen issues and, of course, they’re big time historic and intradivision rivals.

Creating a bidding way between the Giants and Dodgers could be awfully beneficial to the Yankees. The Dodgers have more to offer if you look at prospect lists and whatnot, but I wouldn’t rule out the Giants cobbling together enough to beat them out for Miller (or Chapman). Either way, the best possible thing for the Yankees would be the Dodgers closing the NL West gap a bit in the next few weeks. If the San Francisco bullpen could blow a few games during that time, that would help too.

4. More teams will get involved. The Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, and Rangers are the most notable contenders looking for bullpen help, but they’re far from the only teams in need of relievers. The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, and Mets all figure to be in the market for bullpen arms at the deadline. Would the Yankees trade with another AL East team? I doubt it but they shouldn’t rule it out. If that’s the team that offers the best return, why not take it? In theory, an intra-division trade means you’d be improving your organization and making a rival’s worse, right? Just go into the deadline with an open mind. There will be plenty of suitors. Listen to them all.

Saturday Links: Miller, Beltran, Teixeira, YES, Jeter

June 18, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees and Twins continue their four-game series later this afternoon. Here are some links to help you pass the time until first pitch.

Yankees want “sure things” for Miller

From the “no duh” rumor mill: the Yankees are seeking “sure things” in return in any Andrew Miller trade, reports Jon Heyman. I guess that means they want MLB ready young talent, not prospects who are a year or two away from the big leagues. Makes sense, right? No need to settle for lottery tickets when you’re dealing a player of Miller’s caliber. Either get players who can help you right now or keep the reasonably priced elite reliever who is under contract two more years. The Yankees don’t have to move Miller, after all. If someone wants him, it’ll cost them.

Yankees, Beltran have not talked new contract

Another one from the “no duh” rumor mill: the Yankees and impending free agent Carlos Beltran have not yet had any talks about a new contract, so says Barry Bloom. This shouldn’t be a surprise at all. Beltran is having an awesome season, but he’ll be 40 next April, and the Yankees have a small army of outfielders in Triple-A. They’ve been going young pretty much everywhere possible — and they absolutely need to do that, in my opinion — and part of that is letting Beltran go and replacing him with one of the many younger options. There’s nothing wrong with having a courtesy chat about a new deal, but yeah, this ain’t happening.

Teixeira admits to thinking about retirement

Chances are Mark Teixeira is in his final season as a Yankee — they could bring him back next year as Greg Bird insurance, though I would be surprised — but he has already said he’d like to play five more years. That doesn’t mean he isn’t thinking about retirement though. Here’s what Teixeira said during a recent radio interview when asked about retirement, via Joe Giglio:

“Yea, it’s in the back of mind mind,” Teixeira said. “Absolutely. Even last year when I broke my leg on a fluke foul ball. I’m having a great season and we’re in first place and I break my leg. I’m like, ‘Man, is this ever going to stop?’ You think about how much longer do I want to do this. But you get through it. You have those frustrating times. You joke around when you’re on the DL and think it’s rock bottom watching your team on TV. But you get through and when you get back and hit a couple home runs, you think this is fun again. Hopefully, I’ll get through it this season and perform and help the team. Then we’ll sit down and discuss it as a family as far as what I want to do.”

I can’t imagine thinking and talking about retirement can be an easy thing for a pro athlete. They’re facing the inevitability of walking away from pretty much the only thing they’ve ever known. Teixeira’s been dealing with all these injuries the last few years and you know no one wants to go out like that.

YES ratings down 10% in 2016

According to Richard Morgan, YES Network ratings are down 10% from last season. They’re averaging a little more than 230,000 viewers per game these days. YES averaged nearly 400,000 viewers per game from 2002-11, when the Yankees were in their heyday and contending every year. This isn’t unexpected, right? The Yankees are bad and when teams are bad, ratings (and attendance) drop. Hopefully it doesn’t lead to the team doing something stupid, like trying to spend their way back into contention in a weak free agent market this winter.

Jeter-Davis wedding set for July 2nd

How about we close with some happy news? According to Emily Smith, Derek Jeter and Hannah Davis will be getting married on July 2nd, so two weeks from today. Smith says it’ll be a small family and close friends only ceremony in Napa, and they “want to start a family and have kids right away.” Are those kids gonna have the best genes ever, or what? Also, various social media accounts sure make it seem like Jeter is out doing the bachelor party thing with Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, and Andruw Jones. That is some serious #squadgoals right there.

Trade Notes: Cubs, Gallo, Tigers, Fulmer, Norris, Reyes

June 15, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The draft is now over, which means teams will soon shift their focus to the trade deadline. The way things are going right now, the Yankees are much more likely to be sellers than buyers this summer. We’ll see what happens. Here are some miscellaneous trade notes, both past and present.

Cubs scouting Yankees’ top relievers

According to George King, the Cubs had a scout at Yankee Stadium last week taking a look at New York’s big three relievers. The Cubbies already know those guys are awesome. They’re just doing their due diligence. Chicago could really use a shutdown lefty reliever, and I’m guessing they’d prefer Andrew Miller to Aroldis Chapman. Miller is under contract two more years and is willing to pitch in any role. Also, Theo Epstein and Miller have a connection dating back to their time with the Red Sox.

I’ve already written about the Cubs as a possible trade partner a few times (here and here) and something tells me I will end up writing about them a few more times before the trade deadline. As always, it’s going to come down to what Chicago is willing to give up in a trade. We’ve already heard they won’t trade Kyle Schwarber straight up for Miller. Javier Baez and Jorge Soler were involved in trade rumors all offseason, so I imagine they’re available.

Rangers won’t trade Gallo for Miller

From the “no duh” rumor mill: the Rangers are unwilling to trade third base masher Joey Gallo straight up for Miller, reports Jon Heyman. The Rangers have the best record (40-25) and worst bullpen ERA (5.12) in the AL, so yeah, a reliever or three figures to be on their trade deadline shipping list. It’s the glaring need right now. Manager Jeff Banister has to hold his breath each time he signals for a reliever.

Texas GM Jon Daniels has a history of making big moves at the trade deadline, and no team will have more bullpen help to offer than New York, so I expect to see a ton of Rangers-Yankees rumors these next few weeks. I can’t help but wonder if the Yankees will push for Jurickson Profar. They’ve had interest in him in the past, and it appears the Rangers have no place to play him. That’s the kind of talent the Yankees should be targeting, anyway.

Tigers were unwilling to part with top prospects for Miller

Prior to the Justin Wilson trade in December, the Yankees and Tigers were discussing a Miller trade, reports Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal says Detroit was not willing to move their top prospects, specifically righty Michael Fulmer and lefty Daniel Norris, so nothing happened. The Tigers then shifted their focus to Wilson, and that trade eventually came together.

This jibes with everything we heard about the Miller trade talks over the winter. The Yankees wanted high-end young pitching in return. They talked to the Astros about Lance McCullers Jr. and Vincent Velasquez, for example. Fulmer and Norris are cut from a similar cloth. When it comes time to take offers for Miller again — I imagine the Yankees will listen even if they’re unwilling to sell — I assume they’ll again prioritize young power arms.

Yanks didn’t offer Mateo for Reyes

Remember a few weeks back when we heard the Yankees reportedly offered the Rockies shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo for Jorge Reyes last year? That didn’t pass the sniff test at all. As it turns out, the report was wrong. Tracy Ringolsby says the Yankees did not offer Mateo for Reyes, but Mateo’s name did come up during talks about a larger multi-player trade. That makes much more sense.

I wonder who else the Yankees could have been targeting in such a deal? The Rockies don’t exactly having pitching to spare — Jon Gray had not made his MLB debut at that point, and I can’t imagine Colorado was willing to trade him anyway — and the Yankees had no other massive needs since Reyes would have presumably replaced Stephen Drew at second. Maybe Mateo and stuff for Reyes and prospects? I have no idea what it could realistically be otherwise. Intrigue!

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