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Three things the two 2018 World Series teams should reaffirm for the Yankees

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(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

Later tonight the Red Sox and Dodgers will open the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are looking to win their fourth championship in the last 15 years. The Dodgers are trying to win their first World Series title in 30 years, since the iconic Kirk Gibson home run series. We’re all Dodgers fans this series, right? Right.

Anyway, this is the time of year when we start to see “this is what [team] should learn from the World Series teams” articles. I’ve done it myself. Multiple times. This is not one of those articles. What is there to learn from the Red Sox and Dodgers? Draft and develop well, be good at as many facets of the game as possible, and hope it all works out? Yeah. We knew that already.

The Yankees don’t need to learn anything from the Red Sox and Dodgers. Rather, there are a couple of things the Yankees already know that the Red Sox and Dodgers reinforce. Here, in no particular order, are three big picture ideas the Sawx and Dodgers reaffirm, just in case you or the Yanks have forgotten.

It’s okay to outspend everyone (by a lot)

Kinda weird I have to point this out when talking about the Yankees, but here we are. Between payroll and luxury tax, the Yankees paid $240M for their roster last season. This year that number was all the way down to $193M or so. The Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS last year and cut nearly $50M off their payroll. Good grief.

Let’s check in on 2018 Opening Day payrolls, shall we?

  1. Red Sox: $228.4M
  2. Giants: $205.6M
  3. Dodgers: $199.6M

Would you look at that? Two of the top three teams in payroll are in the World Series. The third team stunk, but you know what? That third team won three World Series titles in a five-year span recently and spent like crazy to try to extend the championship window. They tried like hell to keep winning. There’s no extra credit for winning with a cheapest roster. Spend spend spend.

The Yankees set out to reset their luxury tax rate this year and they did exactly that. Will they increase payroll next year and exceed the luxury tax threshold? Brian Cashman didn’t make it seem like a given. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said the GM.

Luxury tax money goes to non-luxury tax paying teams. At least part of it does. It sucks having to pay bills, we all know that firsthand, so I totally get why the Yankees don’t want to continue footing a luxury tax bill. By doing that though, the Yankees are throwing away their market advantages. Playing in New York and having this organization’s history means sky high revenues. The Yankees have willingly leveled the playing field.

The Red Sox spent like crazy this year — I don’t want to hear any “they’re buying a championship!” nonsense, it’s hard for a Yankees fan to be more hypocritical than that — and the result was 108 wins and a trip to the postseason. The Dodgers, like the Yankees, worked to get under the luxury tax threshold this year. They went from 104 wins last year to 92 wins this year. They leveled the playing field and had to battle all season.

If there’s a lesson here, the lesson is that when a team has a very talented young core capable of doing something special, they absolutely should throw money at whatever roster holes exist in an effort to get over the hump. Could you get saddled with a bad contract along the way? Absolutely. You also might wind up in the World Series. Success can be fleeting and championship windows can closer sooner than you expect. Spend when you can.

Home runs are cool, long live home runs

Machado. (Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The Red Sox clinched the AL pennant with a 4-1 win over the Astros in ALCS Game Five. The Dodgers clinched the NL pennant with a 5-1 win over the Brewers in NLDS Game Seven. All eleven runs in the two deciding games were scored on home runs. Every single one. Three solo homers (Christian Yelich, J.D. Martinez, Marwin Gonzalez), one two-run homer (Cody Bellinger), and two three-run homers (Rafael Devers, Yasiel Puig) equal eleven runs.

From 2016-18, there were 1.19 home runs per game during the regular season and 1.15 home runs per game in the postseason. The difference is one homer every 25 games. A negligible difference. Also:

  • 2018 regular season: 40.3% runs on homers
  • 2018 postseason: 40.2% runs on homers

As Joe Sheehan notes, the team with more home runs has won 17 of 21 games this postseason. Point is, home run production does not decrease in October. That’s a lazy and tired narrative that anyone watching this postseason should see is false. Hitting a home run is literally the best thing a hitter can do and that is true any time of year.

Fortunately, Cashman and the Yankees don’t seem eager to overhaul their record setting home run offense this winter. They’re not going to be pressured into shaking things up after a quick ALDS exit, or after last year’s offensive issues in Houston during the ALCS. “I’m good with our offense. I think we lost because we were ineffective, and that had to do with what was done to us,” said Cashman at his end-of-season press conference.

Are the Yankees too right-handed? Yeah, I think so, especially now that Didi Gregorius is going to miss an undetermined length of time next season. Another lefty bat and another high on-base guy in left field should be offseason priorities. Generally speaking though, a home run heavy offense is a (very) good thing. The Yankees shouldn’t overreact to the ALDS (and last year’s ALCS) and overhaul things. The ball still flies in October.

Don’t pass up elite talent

I didn’t love the idea of trading for Gerrit Cole last year. Not at the reported asking price. The Yankees wanted to build a deal around Clint Frazier and secondary prospects. The Pirates wanted Frazier and Miguel Andujar, and no. Just no. The Yankees stood their ground and Cole went to the Astros for a package that looked underwhelming at the time and looks even more underwhelming now.

What I didn’t appreciate enough at the time is how hard it is to acquire elite talent. And Cole, even with the step backwards he took in 2016 and 2017, is an elite talent. He was 27 years old at the time and he’s a former first overall pick with premium velocity, a swing-and-miss slider, and pretty good control. How often do players like that become available? How often do they actually change teams? Not often at all. These guys are hard to get.

Look at the two World Series teams. When the Dodgers needed a shortstop to replace the injured Corey Seager, they went out and got Manny Machado. When the Red Sox needed another starter a few years ago, they traded for Chris Sale. When they needed a power bat last winter, they signed J.D. Martinez. There were no corners cut. There approach was “we’re a great team and we’re getting the best players available to address our needs.”

This isn’t to say I think the Yankees should’ve caved and given up Frazier and Andujar for Cole. Andujar is my dude. Can’t really blame the Yankees because the Pirates said no and wound up making a bad trade. My point is elite talent is difficult to acquire and whenever it becomes available, the Yankees should get involved in the bidding. They did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton! This offseason Machado and Bryce Harper are available for nothing but cash, and yeah.

This sorta circles back to the first point. The Yankees stuck to a self-imposed payroll limit this year, and if they do it again next year and miss out on a prime-aged superstar like Machado or Harper, it’s going to look terrible. Squint your eyes and you can find baseball reasons to pass on Machado (two knee surgeries) and Harper (various injuries), and if the Yankees put on the full course press and they sign elsewhere anyway, so be it. But they have to try. Role players are important, but you win with stars.

Yankeemetrics: It is high, it is far, it is … see ya 2018

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I want to thank everyone for being such great followers, fans and readers during this unforgettable record-breaking season. Hope you enjoyed all the smart stats, #FunFacts, Obscure Yankeemetrics and other interesting numbers. Let’s Go Yankees.

(Getty)

It’s Just Not Happ-ening
In the first-ever Division Series matchup between 100-win teams, the 108-win Red Sox took the series opener, 5-4.

It was another frustrating and winnable game for the Yankees, who struck out 13 times and left 10 men on base in the one-run loss. This was the ninth time in franchise history the Yankees lost a nine-inning postseason game by a run while stranding at least 10 baserunners — and the first time ever they also struck out more than 10 times in the game.

J.A. Happ, who had been so brilliant against Boston this season (1.99 ERA in four starts) and during his entire career (2.98 ERA in 21 games), was pounded early and pulled in the third inning without recording an out, getting charged with five runs on four hits. He is the first Yankee starter in the postseason to allow at least five runs and while pitching no more than two innings since A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of the 2009 World Series against the Phillies. Before Happ, no other pitcher in franchise history had done that in the opening game of a playoff series.

The Yankee chipped away at their early 5-0 deficit but their rally fell just short as Aaron Judge’s solo homer to lead off the ninth inning was followed by three straight strikeouts to end the game. The home run was a significant one for Judge, his sixth in 15 career postseason games. The only Yankee to hit more dingers in their first 15 playoff games was Bernie Williams (7).

Giancarlo Stanton was part of the strikeout parade in the ninth inning, and finished with four whiffs in the game. A Stantonian #NotFunFact to chew on: He is the only cleanup hitter in franchise history to strike out four or more times in a postseason game.

(AP)

The Kracken Erupts
The Yankees rebounded from Game 1’s bitter loss with a fired-up, fist-pumping win on Saturday night to even the series at 1-1.

They probably couldn’t have been in a better situational spot to steal a game at Fenway, facing David Price, a perennial Yankees punching bag with a historically terrible postseason resume. And both those narratives played out perfectly for the Yankees. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez both crushed home runs while Andrew McCutchen chipped in with a booming RBI single, before Price got the hook and was booed off the mound in the second inning. The final damage for Mr. Price: 1 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 3 hits, 2 homers, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

Price has now made 10 starts in the postseason and his team has lost all 10 of them. That is the longest postseason streak of team games lost in a player’s starts in MLB history.

Okay, back to the Bombers. Judge’s first-inning solo homer was his third in three games this postseason. He is the second Yankee to go deep in each of the team’s first three games to start a postseason, along with Hank Bauer in the 1958 World Series. And he also joined Bernie Williams (2001, 1996), Reggie Jackson (1977) and Bauer as the only Yankee outfielders to homer in three postseason games in a row.

(New York Times)

Sanchez’s dinger off Price was probably the least shocking part of Saturday’s game. His brief history against the lefty speaks for itself:

  • 18 plate appearances
  • 7 hits
  • 6 home runs
  • 4 walks

But Price wasn’t the only Red Sox pitcher that got schooled by Sanchez on Saturday. He pulverized an Eduardo Rodriguez fastball literally out of the ballpark. With a projected distance of 479 feet, it is the longest hit at Fenway since Statcast tracking began in 2015 and the second-longest hit in the postseason at any park over the last four years.

With his two homers, he entered into some purdy good company. He and Yogi Berra (1956 World Series Game 7) are the only Yankee catchers with a multi-homer game in the playoffs. And, at the age of 25 years and 308 days, he is the youngest catcher to homer twice in a game in MLB postseason history.

Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a couple bad starts to the end the season with another postseason gem, giving up one run — via the #obligatoryhomer — in five innings. He now owns a 1.50 playoff ERA, the fifth-lowest by any pitcher with at least five playoff starts.

Lowest Postseason ERA (min. 5 Starts)
ERA Games
Sandy Koufax 0.95 8
Christy Mathewson 0.97 11
Eddie Plank 1.32 7
Bill Hallahan 1.36 7
Masahiro Tanaka 1.50 5

Nightmare on River Avenue
There really are no words that can capture the utter humiliation, indescribable embarrassment and overwhelming atrocity that was Game 3 in the Bronx on Monday night. Mike did an excellent job summing up the terrible managerial mistakes from the 16-1 loss, I’ll just present here the cold hard ugly facts.

  • 15-run loss is the largest margin of defeat in postseason game in franchise history
  • It is also the most lopsided loss for any team in a postseason game at home
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever by a Yankee team in a postseason game
  • 16 runs allowed are the most ever in postseason game for any team that gave up no more than one homer
  • Austin Romine is first catcher in MLB history to pitch in a postseason game; the only other position player to do it was Blue Jays infielder Cliff Pennington in the 2015 ALCS Game 5 against the Royals
  • Summing up the pitching mess … Yankees are first team in Major-League history to give up at least 16 runs, 18 hits and eight walks in a postseason game

And mercifully, we close this section with our #NotFunFact of the series, awarded to Luis Severino:

End of the Chase For 28
It’s a game of inches, and the Yankees were just a few short in Tuesday night’s 4-3 loss. Folks, I hope you’re sitting down for this series-ending Obscure Yankeemetric … It was the 14th time the Yankees have been eliminated from the postseason at home, but the first time it happened in a one-run game at the Stadium with the winning run on base when the game ended. Welp.

(Newsday)

For the second straight night, Yankees found themselves in early hole, after CC Sabathia allowed three runs in the first three innings, a rare mediocre outing for him given his postseason track record in the Bronx. This was his eighth playoff start at home as a Yankee, and the first one that he gave up more than two runs. His 1.61 ERA in his previous seven home postseason starts was the second-best by any Yankee (min. 4 starts).

Zach Britton coughed up the fourth run via a 338-foot homer by Christian Vazquez that barely cleared the short porch in right field. It was the first homer Britton has allowed to a No. 9 batter in his career. And, according to ESPN’s home run tracking system, it would not have been a home run at any of the other 29 ballparks. A true ‘Yankee Stadium Special’, served up at the worst possible moment:

In a season where #toomanyhomers was a nightly trend on Yankees twitter, the team failed to go deep in the fateful final two games. The only other time this season the Bombers were homerless in back-to-back games in the Bronx was April 7 and 8 against the Orioles, the fifth and sixth home games of the season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

2018 Division Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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The MVP roars. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Baseball’s premier rivalry meets again in the postseason, 14 years after a pair of epic Championship Series duels. This time, it will be a five-game set and the Red Sox have home-field advantage thanks to a tremendous regular season.

The Season Series

Boston was the only team to best the Yankees in the season series this year, taking 10 of 19 from the Bombers after winning the season finale. The Sox outscored the Yankees, 116-102, and dealt the decisive blow to their division hopes with a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August. The Yankees took six of nine at Yankee Stadium but mustered just three wins in 10 tries in Boston.

Who stood out? Rick Porcello went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in four starts while Chris Sale allowed just one run over 13 innings across two victories. He held the Yankees to a .118/.220/.250 line. Mookie Betts hit a ridiculous .415/.506/.738 with 14 extra-base hits against the Pinstripers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge batted .346/.443/.654 with five homers and Giancarlo Stanton hit .371/.423/.700 with five homers and 12 total extra-base hits. Luis Severino guided the Yankees to three wins at the Stadium.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox and Carson Smith are out for the year. Chris Sale is healthy, but his velocity was significantly down in his last start of the year. Eduardo Nunez has dealt with knee issues for the last few seasons.

Their 2018 Season

You know the story. Boston took the league by storm this year, winning a franchise-best 108 wins. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their 876 runs led baseball — Yankees were second with 851 — while 647 runs allowed was only bested by the Astros (534), Dodgers (610), Cubs (645) and Rays (646).

Betts is the likely AL MVP after leading baseball with a .346 average, putting up a 1.078 OPS and playing a Gold Glove-caliber right field. Sale is a Cy Young favorite with a 2.11 ERA over 158 innings while racking up 237 strikeouts. The crazy thing is that J.D. Martinez had a more impressive year in some ways, nearly winning the Triple Crown.

The Lineup We Might See

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 30 SB, 185 wRC+ (AND 10.4 WAR!!)
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 wRC+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.402/.629, 43 HR, 6 SB, 170 wRC+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.360/.522, 23 HR, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .245/.325/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 100 wRC+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.301/.380, 14 HR, 16 SB, 87 wRC+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .240/.298/.433, 21 HR, 5 SB, 90 wRC+
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .234/.314/.403, 13 HR, 17 SB, 90 wRC+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .177/.232/.279, 5 HR, 1 SB, 33 wRC+

The lineup won’t look quite like this in Game 1 with J.A. Happ on the mound for New York. Steve Pearce (140 wRC+, 158 wRC+ vs. LHP) will certainly play first base and Eduardo Nunez (78 wRC+, 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) could take over at third base. Pearce could also start at DH or first vs. righties and force Moreland or Bradley Jr. to the bench.

But, hot diggity dog, the top of that lineup is good. You can’t let guys like Bradley Jr. and Leon get on or else Betts, Benintendi and Martinez will make you pay.

Come Sale away. (Getty Images)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Game 1 (Friday at 7:32 PM ET): Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ
The stuff: He’s got a 95+ mph fastball, a wipe-out high-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The guy has some of the best stuff in baseball when he’s on.

The questions: Health and ability to go deep in games. Sale pitched just 12 innings over four starts in September. He struck out 18 and allowed just five runs, but he didn’t look quite like himself. Perhaps that was because the games were meaningless. His fastball averaged just 90.2 mph in his final start of the year as his velocity has trickled down his last few starts. Mike broke down Sale’s disappearing velocity earlier today.

Performance vs. NYY: Outside of one bad start last September, he’s really had the Yankees’ number since coming to Boston. His seven innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball at the Stadium in June was perhaps the best road performance against the Bombers this year.

Game 2 (Saturday at 8:15 PM ET): David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka 
I’ll be brief on the next three starters because Domenic and Mike broke them down over the last few weeks. Here’s Dom’s preview that touched on Price recently.

The story with Price is simple: He’s a great pitcher. He’s had a strong second half. But he can’t seem to beat the Yankees’ and their right-handed power, nor has he acquitted himself well in the postseason. Both of those storylines hang over him heading into Game 2.

Game 3 (Monday at 7:40 PM ET): Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
Porcello’s had a fine, average-ish year, as Domenic pointed out last week. Like Price (and Sale), he’s struggled in the postseason historically. However, he’s been able to keep the Yankees off balance and one-hit them at Fenway in August after no-hitting them into the middle innings in April. He was unable to beat them at Yankee Stadium in one try.

Game 4 (Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET): Nathan Eovaldi vs. CC Sabathia

I can’t put it better than Mike, who broke down Eovaldi’s season and his strong numbers against the Yankees. Check out his piece!

Game 5 (Thursday at 7:40 PM ET): TBD vs. TBD
If we get this far, I’d bet on Sale starting instead of Price for obvious reasons, though Sale may be needed in relief in Game 4 like last season. On the Yankees’ end, they get to pick between whoever performed better among Tanaka and Happ in the first two games.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox will have seven relievers for this series, eight if you count Eovaldi in the early part of the series. Craig Kimbrel is the closer, mostly in one-inning stints, though the postseason will likely call for longer outings. Matt Barnes has been his primary setup man both before and since returning from the disabled list.

From there, it gets hairy. Recently, Alex Cora has turned to Steven Wright and Ryan Brasier in the middle innings. Wright especially has kept the Yankees off-balance, but the knuckleballer shouldn’t scare the Bombers.

Eduardo Rodriguez will act as the long man after missing out on the Game 4 start. Beyond him, the final two spots came down to Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree with Hembree missing the cut. Kelly was dreadful down the stretch and Cora will likely loathe utilizing him in a high-leverage spot.

Tipping Points

  • Sale’s readiness: He’s barely pitched down the stretch and he’s arguably the most important player in this series.
  • Relying on the bullpen: We know the Yankees can rely on their bullpen, but will they to the extent they need to or will Aaron Boone leave his starters in too long? On the other side, can Alex Cora find a bridge between his rotation and Craig Kimbrel that doesn’t cost his team a game or the series?
  • Left on right: It’s not as simple as the platoon advantages, but the Red Sox are going with two lefties presumably for three of the five starts in this series while the Yankees boast the best collection of right-handed hitting talent in baseball. If Sale and Price can navigate the lineup 2-3 times through with a lead, Boston should take the series.
  • Mookie Betts: He’s so freaking good. Ugh.

Missing velocity has turned Chris Sale into an ALDS wild card

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(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

When the Yankees open the ALDS later tonight, they’ll face Red Sox ace Chris Sale, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in baseball. Sale threw 158 innings with a 2.11 ERA (1.98 FIP) and 237 strikeouts this season. He was so good he might win the AL Cy Young even while falling four innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. He was that dominant on a rate basis.

And yet, when the ALDS begins tonight, Sale will be something of an unknown for the Red Sox. Are they getting the dominant Cy Young caliber starter? Or are they getting something less than that? Shoulder inflammation sent Sale to the disabled list twice in the second half, and, while some conspiracy theorists believe the Red Sox were simply giving him rest down the stretch with a big division lead, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case.

I say that because, since returning from his second stint on the disabled list, Sale’s velocity has been down noticeably. It’s not just down. It’s down and continuing to trend down. Look at his start-by-start average velocity:

Sale’s four-seamer averaged 90.2 mph in his final regular season start last week. That’s his lowest average fastball velocity in any game in his big league career. In fact, last time out the Statcast algorithm classified a bunch of fastballs as changeups, and that’s never a good sign. There is a clear downward trend in that graph.

Furthermore, as Ben Lindbergh notes, Sale’s extension has been down as well, meaning he hasn’t been releasing the ball as close to the plate as usual. Less extension and less velocity means hitters have that much more time to react. In his final regular season start, Sale allowed three runs and needed 92 pitches to get through 4.2 innings against the post-Manny Machado Orioles. Eek.

Sale made five starts and threw only 17 innings in the final nine weeks of the regular season. That’s it. He hasn’t completed five full innings in a start since August 11th and he hasn’t completed six innings since July 27th. For what’s it worth, Sale and the Red Sox blame his recent velocity (and extension) issues on bad mechanics, not injury. From David Schoenfield:

“I was able to get off the mound a couple of times and work on that,” Sale said, “work on using my legs, driving a little bit more. Getting a little more rotational with my lower half and staying stronger with my top half. And just trying to sharpen the tools.”

Sale last started last Wednesday. He’s going into tonight’s game on eight days rest and that is completely by design. The Red Sox lined him up in such a way that he would not only get extra rest before ALDS Game One, but also enough time to throw two bullpen sessions between starts to work on things, rather than the usual one.

Here, via Lindbergh’s post, is a great clip of Sale from his final regular season start. This doesn’t look like the usual Chris Sale. That explosiveness in his delivery isn’t there. This is almost a get-me-over lob.

Was Sale holding back to protect his shoulder in a meaningless regular season start following two bouts of inflammation? Or are his mechanics that out of whack? Would it really surprise anyone if the regular explosive Chris Sale showed up on the mound tonight throwing 97-99 mph? I don’t think so.

The fact of the matter is that Chris Sale, the explosive guy who is in the running for the Cy Young every year, hasn’t been on an MLB mound since July. Shoulder woes sabotaged his August and September, and the fact his velocity has been trending down rather than up as he regains arm strength is a red flag. It is entirely possible he was playing possum and holding back. Still, if I were a Red Sox fan, I would’ve liked to have seen regular Chris Sale on the mound at some point. It didn’t happen.

Sale is tall enough to be a Yankee (listed at 6-foot-6) but he is awfully slender, and he does have a history of wearing down late in the season. September has been his worst month throughout his career. Sale’s numbers since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2012:

  • April: 2.67 ERA (2.84 FIP) and .255 wOBA
  • May: 2.59 ERA (2.57 FIP) and .238 wOBA
  • June: 2.60 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .252 wOBA
  • July: 2.47 ERA (2.47 FIP) and .274 wOBA
  • August: 3.37 ERA (2.99 FIP) and .286 wOBA
  • September: 3.84 ERA (3.84 FIP) and .327 wOBA

Sale has a history of wearing down and losing effectiveness late in the season and it’s possible that now, at age 29 with nearly 1,500 big league innings on his arm, his durability issues are showing up as something more than simple fatigue. This year he dealt with shoulder inflammation that was bad enough to require 35 total days on the disabled list, plus his fastball is missing and his extension is reduced. Hmmm.

I don’t know which Chris Sale will show up tonight. It could be the Cy Young caliber Chris Sale or it could be the diminished September version of Chris Sale. Neither would surprise me. I do know this much: If Sale is not his normal self, that is advantage Yankees. Sale is still good enough to win at 90-92 mph rather than 97-99 mph, sure, but man, this guy without his usual fastball (and extension) is a much different animal.

To beat the Red Sox in the ALDS, the Yankees will finally have to solve Nathan Eovaldi

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

While I’m sure the move was made with more than the Yankees in mind, the Red Sox acquired a pitcher at the trade deadline who matches up very well with New York. That pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi. The former Yankee was good with the Rays (4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP) and great with the BoSox (3.33 ERA and 2.88 FIP) this season despite a few of those classic Eovaldi blowups.

Eovaldi returned from his second career Tommy John surgery in May and Tampa had him emphasize his cutter, a pitch he first started throwing with the Yankees in 2016, not long before his elbow gave out. With a healthy elbow, Eovaldi started throwing a ton of cutters, and the result was much more success against right-handed batters. The quick numbers:

  • Eovaldi vs. RHB (2014-16): .253/.304/.378 (.299 wOBA) with 18.0 K% and 5.9 BB%
  • Eovaldi vs. RHB (2018): .235/.252/.381 (.268 wOBA) with 23.9 K% and 2.2 BB%

A 31-point improvement in wOBA, not to mention those strikeout and walk gains, is pretty significant. Eovaldi’s always thrown exceptionally hard. Even after his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi’s heater averaged 97.6 mph this season. His fastball was far more hittable than the velocity would lead you to believe though. The cutter gives him something to avoid the barrel.

Four times Eovaldi faced the Yankees this season and the combined result was six runs (five earned) in 23.1 innings. The Yankees hit .173/.218/.272 against him. Yuck. It’s worth looking back at those four games real quick, so let’s do that now.

June 15th: 7.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Deceptive line is deceptive. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs through seven innings — Giancarlo Stanton swatted a two-run home run — before Rays manager Kevin Cash pushed his luck and sent Eovaldi out for the eighth inning. Two soft singles and an intentional walk loaded the bases, then all three inherited runners scored on this:

Cash pushed Eovaldi a little too far in that game and it got out of hand late. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs on the Stanton homer through seven innings. Two runs in seven innings is a very good start. The three-run eighth inning makes it look like Eovaldi pitched worse than he actually did.

August 4th: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Total domination. Rick Porcello one-hit the Yankees on 86 pitches (!) the night before and the offense looked no better against Eovaldi. The Yankees did not have their A-lineup out there …

… but still, I’m not sure the A-lineup would’ve hit Eovaldi with the way he threw that afternoon.

September 18th: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Another dominant start, though not to the extent of that August 4th outing. The Yankees had Aaron Judge, they had Andrew McCutchen, and they had Gary Sanchez. It was the A-lineup and Eovaldi still shut the Yankees down across six innings. Considering he’d only thrown 83 pitches in those six innings, I reckon Eovaldi could’ve gone out for the seventh inning as well, but at this point the Red Sox were auditioning middle relievers for the postseason roster, so someone else got the ball.

September 29th: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

A meaningless start. This was a tune-up appearance in the penultimate game of the regular season and Eovaldi was very much going through the motions. And he still struck out four of the eight batters he faced. Also, Eovaldi didn’t show the Yankees the goods. He threw his lowest percentage of cutters in months in this game. The Red Sox knew they could face the Yankees in the ALDS and they didn’t reveal any secrets.

* * *

For all intents and purposes, Eovaldi made three actual starts against the Yankees this season, and he pitched very well in all three. That messy eighth inning on June 15th makes the box score line look a lot worse than how Eovaldi actually pitched. He was very good through seven innings. The August 4th and September 18th starts were dynamite. In three meaningful games against the Yankees this season, Eovaldi was as tough as it gets.

Earlier this week Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Alex Speier the ALDS plan is to use Eovaldi in relief in Game One — or at least have him available in relief for Game One — and then start him in Game Four. That’s an old school baseball move, using your fourth starter in relief on his throw day in Game One. You don’t see that often these days. That’s the plan though. Eovaldi in relief in Game One and then the starter in Game Four.

The Yankees could get dominated by Eovaldi and win the ALDS anyway. It’s possible. It just wouldn’t be easy. The Yankees have a very right-handed lineup and Eovaldi has been very good against righties this year thanks to his new cutter. No, the Yankees shouldn’t put Brett Gardner or Greg Bird in the lineup to get the platoon advantage. Stick with the righties because they’re your best hitters. It’s up to those righties to adjust and have more success against Eovaldi than they did pretty much all season.

Yankeemetrics: Final countdown, hello October (Sept. 28-30)

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(AP)

Bronx-bound
Needing a win to finally wrap up the one lingering question mark for their October run — homefield advantage in the Wild Card game — the Yankees came to Boston and took care of business, demolishing the Red Sox 11-6 in Friday’s series opener.

They stuck to their bedrock formula of #toomanyhomers, belting a quartet of longballs — one each in the third, fourth, seventh and eighth innings — en route to the win. It was their MLB-leading 16th game with at least four home runs, and the most ever in a season in franchise history. The only team in MLB history with more four-plus homer games was the Orioles last year (19).

(AP)

Gary Sanchez sparked the dinger parade with a mammoth solo shot in the third that sailed 446 feet over the Green Monster and literally out of the park. Sanchez has a .688 slugging percentage in 77 career at-bats at Fenway Park, the highest mark by any Yankee at the ballpark in franchise history (min. 60 at-bats).

Yankees Highest Slug Pct At Fenway Park (min. 60 AB)
SLG AB
Gary Sanchez .688 77
Babe Ruth .634 519
Roger Maris .630 192

Aaron Hicks broke the game open with a three-run blast in the fourth to make it 8-0. It was his 27th homer of the season, giving the Yankees five guys who reached that mark. The only other team in MLB history to have five players go deep at least 27 times in a season was the 1956 Cincinnati Redlegs.

J.A. Happ cruised through the first five innings, allowing no runs on one hit, before getting into a mess in the sixth and surrendering a grand slam to the latest Yankees kryptonite, Steve Pearce. Happ was done after six innings, and capped his half-season as a Yankee with a perfect 7-0 record, 2.69 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 11 starts. He is the only pitcher in franchise history to make double-digits starts in a season and finish with at least 60 strikeouts, no losses and a sub-2.70 ERA.

(AP)

Record-breaking afternoon
Even with nothing to play for in terms of improving their postseason position, the Yankees still made headlines on Saturday, breaking #toomanyrecords in a 8-5 victory.

The win was their 100th of the season — we love round numbers — and the 20th time in Yankees history they’ve reached that milestone. No other franchise has more than 10 100-win seasons. Combined with the Red Sox and Astros also surpassing the century mark, it’s the first time ever that the Yankees and Red Sox have both had 100-win campaigns in the same season, and the first time in major-league history that three teams from the same league posted 100-win seasons.

Since baseball went to three-division leagues in 1994, the only other team to win at least 100 games and not win their division was the 2001 A’s, who won 102 games and finished second behind the 116-win Mariners.

Gleyber Torres etched the Yankees in the major-league home run record books when he went deep in the fourth inning for the 265th home run of the season, the most ever by a team in a single season. With Torres hitting in the nine-hole, it was the Yankees 20th homer from the bottom of the order, giving them 20 or more homers at every spot in the batting order, another first in MLB history.

Miguel Andujar — shocking, eh? — joined the record-breaker dance party with his 45th and 46th doubles of the season, surpassing Joe DiMaggio for the most ever by a Yankee rookie. He is just the sixth player in franchise history — rookie or not — with 45-plus doubles and 25-plus homers in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Robinson Cano (2009, ‘11-12)
  • Alfonso Soriano (2002)
  • Don Mattingly (1985-86)
  • Lou Gehrig (1927-28)
  • Babe Ruth (1923)

And here’s another impressive #FunFact for Andujar: He is the second rookie in MLB history with at least 46 doubles and 27 homers in a season. The other? Albert Pujols in 2001.

(Getty)

The end of the road
Even before the Yankees and Red Sox took the field in Game No. 162 — a lackluster 10-2 loss — it was a historic matchup. Excluding end-of-season tiebreaker games, this was just the second time in MLB history that two 100-wins teams faced off in the regular season. The other meeting was a Cubs-Pirates series from October 2-4, 1909.

If you like round numbers and historical coincidences, this is second time a Yankees teams has finished the regular season with exactly a 100-62 record. It also happened in 1977, en route to their 21st World Series title.

The history-making continued in the first inning as Luis Cessa retired only one of the six batters he faced, coughing up four runs on four hits. Meaningless #FunFact alert! He is the first Yankee starter since Andy Hawkins in 1990 to get no more than out while allowing at least four runs in a game against the Red Sox. Hawkins somehow managed to do that twice in 1990, on June 5 and September 1.

Miguel Andujar continued his assault on the record books with his 47th double of the season, tying the AL rookie record set by Fred Lynn in 1975. Just for fun, let’s put him on another list of legends. Andujar is the fourth American League player age 23 or younger with at least 25 homers, 47 doubles and 90 RBI in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Alex Rodriguez (1996)
  • Cal Ripken Jr (1983)
  • Hank Greenberg (1934)

Luke Voit made sure the Yankees wouldn’t be shut out with a two-run blast in the fourth inning. He debuted on August 2 but didn’t start heating up until the final week of August. He first went deep in pinstripes on August 24, and from that day to the end of the season he hit 14 homers and drove in 31 runs for the Yankees. In that five-week span, he hit more home runs and had more RBIs than every MLB player except Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich.

9/28 to 9/30 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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J.D. Martinez. (Getty)

This is it, folks – the last series of the regular season. The Yankees are sitting at 98-61, meaning they’ve already clinched their best record since 2009, and their magic number for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game is one. That means that there is, in an ideal world, precious little to play for this weekend so long as we see a Yankees win or an A’s loss at some point. So here’s hoping for as little drama as possible.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set just over a week ago, taking two out of three by a combined score of 19-14. Some notes:

  • Aaron Judge returned to the lineup in the first game, but Neil Walker played the role of hero, knocking out what proved to be a game-winning three-run home run in the 7th inning. J.A. Happ was pretty good, too, allowing just one unearned run in 6 innings of work.
  • Luis Severino had arguably his best start of the month (if not the second half) in game two, tossing 7 innings and allowing 6 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, while striking out 6.
  • Luke Voit was the story of the second game, though, going 4-for-4 with two home runs. He hit another home run the next night, too.
  • We won’t talk about game three otherwise.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Not much has changed since the last series – Marco Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, and Carson Smith are done for the year, and Eduardo Nunez’s knee is still bothering him.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 107-52 with a +229 run differential, and clinched the best record in baseball what seems like a lifetime ago. They lead the majors in runs scored by 25 (the Yankees are second), and only the Astros and Dodgers have allowed fewer runs. As much as I hate to type these words out, they’re the team to beat right now – and it’d be disingenuous to say otherwise.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Alex Cora has been giving a bit of extra rest to his regulars this week, which isn’t terribly surprising. Their go-to lineup is generally:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.437/.643, 32 HR, 30 SB, 187 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.364/.462, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.403/.629, 42 HR, 6 SB, 174 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.358/.517, 22 HR, 8 SB, 133 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .244/.322/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 102 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .243/.299/.383, 14 HR, 15 SB, 87 OPS+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .244/.301/.440, 21 HR, 5 SB, 97 OPS+
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .232/.312/.399, 13 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .180/.235/.284, 5 HR, 1 SB, 40 OPS+

Steve Pearce (138 OPS+) will start somewhere against J.A. Happ, Brock Holt (105 OPS+) will start a game or two at various positions, and Christian Vazquez (47 OPS+) should see some time behind the plate.

Porcello. (David Maxwell/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:00 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Brian Johnson

Johnson started against the Yankees back on August 2, and it was a mixed bag for the 27-year-old southpaw. He walked away with the win and struck out 11 in just 5 innings … but he also allowed five runs. I suppose that’s what happens when your team wins 15-7. But I digress. Johnson has been more than serviceable for the Red Sox this year, pitching to a 4.11 ERA (106 ERA+) in 96.1 IP split between the rotation and the bullpen.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 1 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has faced the Yankees twice since being acquired by the Red Sox, and he’s been all but unhittable, pitching to the following line: 14.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K. His ERA in the seven games between Yankees match-ups is 6.58, which is endlessly frustrating, as well.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 9/24) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K

Sunday (3:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

Porcello has been his typically average-ish self this year, pitching to a 4.33 ERA (101 ERA+) in 189.1 IP. He rarely misses a turn in the rotation, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in 26 of his 32 starts. And his two best starts of the year have come against the Yankees; he threw a complete game one-hitter on August 3, and 7 innings of shutout ball on April 12. So let’s hope Sunday is more similar to his May 9 start in which he allowed 5 runs in 5.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/22) – 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 K

The Bullpen

Closer Craig Kimbrel is having his typically strong season, but he looked completely lost his last time out; he faced five batters, walking three and hitting one, and left the game with the bases loaded (and all of those inherited runners would go on to score).

It’s a bit shaky behind Kimbrel, with knuckleballer Steven Wright being the only other standout of late. Ryan Brasier has been solid, as well (albeit prone to Yankees-related shellings), and Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez have had good seasons.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a Yankees-Red Sox series with a little something on the line. That’s all I need.