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Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox celebrate (Sept. 18-20)

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(USA Today)

Neil Walker, the Clutch Home Run Corker
For at least one day, the Yankees staved off an embarrassing AL East championship watch party in the Bronx as they rallied for a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees won despite just three hits, the second time this season they’ve pulled off that feat at Yankee Stadium (the other game was September 1 vs Detroit). The last time they won multiple home games with no more than three hits was 1998.

Before we get to the late-game dramatics, let’s recognize the gutty performance of J.A. Happ, who pitched out of several jams while holding the Red Sox to one unearned across six innings. Happ has a 0.54 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season; that’s the lowest ERA by any AL pitcher against any opponent this season (min. 3 starts and 10 IP).

Down 1-0 in the seventh with two men on base, Neil Walker snatched the hero’s cape as he drilled a 3-2 pitch from Ryan Braiser into the second deck in right field, flipping the score for a 3-1 advantage. It was his third go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later, the most by any Yankee this season. It was the team’s 18th go-ahead home run in the seventh inning or later, the second-most in a season in franchise history, trailing only the 2009 club (21).

That blast was also Walker’s 10th of the season as he became the 11th Yankee to reach double digits in 2018. That ties the major-league record, done by four other teams: 2017 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2015 Astros and 2004 Tigers.

(USA Today)

Luuuuuke and the Return of Severino
The Yankees kept Boston’s celebratory champagne corked for a second night in a row, routing their rival 10-1 on Tuesday. Also, significant is the fact that it kept the Red Sox at 103 wins with 10 games remaining, so that they won’t be able to match the 1998 Yankees 114-win season.

The Bombers beat up on their favorite punching bag, David Price, clobbering three home runs off him while scoring six runs (four earned) in five-plus innings. In four starts against the Yankees this season, Price has a 10.34 ERA over 15 2/3 innings. That would be the highest ERA by a Red Sox pitcher against the Yankees in a single season (min. 4 starts). Oh, and did I mention that Price really really doesn’t like pitching in the Bronx …

Luis Severino took another step forward in his slow climb back to #AceSevy as he overcame a lack of fastball command to mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup, allowing one run across seven strong innings. In contrast to Price, Sevy really really likes pitching against the Red Sox in the Bronx recently:

Miguel Andujar jump-started the dinger parade early with a homer in the second inning to put the Yankees up 1-0. It came on a 1-2 pitch from Price, his 12th homer when behind in the count, which leads all major-league players this season. The solo blast was also his 25th of the season, giving the Yankees a MLB-best four players with at least 25 homers this season.

Even more impressive is Andujar’s nearly unprecedented combo of two-baggers and longballs this season.

  • He is one of five AL rookies, aged 23 or younger, to hit at least 25 homers and 40 doubles. The other four: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Ted Williams (1939), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Hal Trosky (1934).
  • And he is the only rookie third baseman (at least 50% of games played at the position) in MLB history to reach those totals in a season.


Luke Voit stole the headlines, though, with a monster 4-for-4, 3-RBI night that included two homers off Price. In 70 games with the Cardinals, Voit never hit more than one homer in a game and never had more than two hits in any game. In 29 games with the Yankees, he already has two multi-homer performances and three games with at least three hits. And to celebrate the huge performance by the chest-hair-pimping first basemen, we’ll give him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series. Here is the list of Yankees with at least four hits, four runs scored and three RBI in a game against the Red Sox

  • Luke Voit (Sept. 19, 2018)
  • Graig Nettles (Sept. 29, 1976)
  • Hank Bauer (May 10, 1952)
  • Lou Gehrig (Sept. 23, 1933)
  • Babe Ruth (Sept. 28, 1923)

All good things come to an end
It finally happened. Needing a sweep to prevent a cruel division-clinching party by their blood rival at The Stadium, the Yankees snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they allowed the Red Sox to rally late for a 11-6 victory. This is the Red Sox 10th AL East title in the Divisional Era (since 1969) and the first time they’ve clinched it with a win against the Yankees.

(Newsday)

Masahiro Tanaka, coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, was hit hard by the Red Sox lineup early and often, giving up four runs in the first three innings and got the hook with no outs in the fifth. This continued a string of poor performances against the Red Sox this season: in four starts, he has a 7.58 ERA with 29 hits and six home runs allowed over 19 innings pitched.

With one swing of the bat in the second inning, Luke Voit set two home run records when he bashed a 93-mph pitch deep over the center-field wall. It was his 10th homer in pinstripes and he became the 12th Yankee this season with double-digit dingers, the most such players for any team in MLB history. The two-run blast was also the Bombers’ 246th home run in 2018, setting a new single-season franchise record.

Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his slump with a grand slam in the fourth inning that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. Yes, the lead would disappear quickly, but he still deserves a shout-out, so here’s a #FunFact stat to chew on:

As mentioned above, that advantage lasted only a couple innings as Chad Green surrendered a game-tying homer to Jackie Bradley Jr leading off the seventh. Green has allowed nine homers in 71 2/3 innings this season; entering 2018, he had given up four homers in 76 1/3 career innings as a reliever.

Dellin Betances tried to clean up Green’s mess in the seventh, but after loading the bases, he coughed up a tie-breaking sac fly to Xander Bogaerts. It was the first sac fly allowed by Betances in more than two years (August 30, 2016 vs Royals).

9/18 to 9/20 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

The Yankees opened their final homestand of the 2018 season by dropping two out of three to the Blue Jays, which isn’t great. Luckily, the A’s also lost two out of three this weekend – thank you, Tampa Bay (which is a sentence I feel strange writing) – so the Yankees remain two up in the loss column in the Wild Card race. And that’s something.

Next up: the Boston Red Sox.

The Last Time They Met

Do we have to talk about this?

The Yankees visited Boston for a four-game set in the beginning of August, the result of which was a sweep in favor of the bad guys. The Red Sox outscored the Yankees 28-13, and secured their position atop the American League East. Let’s try to find some positives from the series:

  • Giancarlo Stanton had three multi-hit games, and went 6-for-16 with two doubles and a home run overall.
  • Chance Adams had a decent big-league debut, going 5 inning and allowing three hits, three runs, and one walk, while striking out a couple.

That’s about it. Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia and Carson Smith are both done for the season. Matt Barnes is working his way back from hip inflammation, and has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions already – he could be back soon. Mookie Betts (oblique) and Eduardo Nunez (knee) are both banged-up, but neither is expected to hit the disabled list; and both should play this series.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are 103-47 with a +221 run differential, and have already clinched a postseason spot. Their magic number to clinch the AL East is two, so one win this series will do the trick. It’s only a matter of time before they clinch home field throughout the playoffs, as well. They lead the majors in runs scored, they’re third in runs allowed, and they’re seventh in FanGraphs’ defensive rating. This is a well-rounded team, to say the least.

The Lineup We Might See

While manager Alex Cora doesn’t have a reason to rush Betts back into the lineup, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’ll be there for at least two of the three games. Based on that:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .337/.431/.619, 29 HR, 28 SB, 180 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .287/.363/.467, 16 HR, 20 SB, 123 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .328/.398/.628, 41 HR, 5 SB, 172 OPS+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.359/.519, 21 HR, 8 SB, 134 OPS+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .246/.320/.440, 15 HR, 2 SB, 103 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .249/.308/.394, 14 HR, 15 SB, 91 OPS+
  7. Jackie Bradley, CF – .232/.310/.400, 12 HR, 16 SB, 91 OPS+
  8. Rafael Devers, 3B – .238/.295/.415, 17 HR, 5 SB, 90 OPS+
  9. Sandy Leon, C – .182/.240/.287, 5 HR, 1 SB, 42 OPS+

Steve Pearce (149 OPS+) will probably start at first against J.A. Happ, and Brock Holt (98 OPS+) could grab a start or two at any number of positions.

Price. (Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (1:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has been a solid pick-up for the Red Sox, pitching to a 4.17 ERA (105 ERA+) in 41.0 IP. His underlying numbers have slipped quite a bit, though, with his strikeout rate dipping by 7.8 percentage points and his walk rate jumping by 1.9 percentage points. It hasn’t hurt him (or the Red Sox) thus far, though. And he did throw 8 shutout innings against the Yankees on August 4.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/11) – 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP David Price

Price has been incredible since the All-Star break, pitching to the following line: 57.2 IP, 39 H, 9 BB, 60 K, 1.56 ERA, 2.25 FIP. That stretch includes his outing against the Yankees on August 5, where he allowed two runs in 6 IP. Price’s pitch selection hasn’t changed all that much on a game-by-game basis, so this is simply a matter of a talented pitcher getting hot at the right time, it seems.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/12) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

This year constitutes something of a breakout for the 25-year-old Rodriguez, who has career-bests in ERA (3.53), strikeouts (26.3%), and walks (7.1%). The Yankees have seen him twice this year already; he shut them out for five innings back on May 10, and then allowed five runs in 6 innings on June 29. I’m hoping for more of the latter this time around.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/13) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel had a bout of mortality coming out of the All-Star break, allowing runs in five of six games at one point and seeing his ERA climb by 0.86 in the process. He has settled down since then, though, pitching to a 0.82 ERA in his last 11 appearances.

31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier has come out of nowhere to be a lights out late inning option for the Red Sox, pitching to a 1.53 ERA (286 ERA+) in 29.1 IP since being called-up in June, and he’s been the team’s best non-Kimbrel reliever in Barnes’ absence. Drew Pomeranz was moved to the bullpen in August, and has struggled mightily in that role with a 5.79 ERA in 18.2 IP. Outside of those two, it’s the usual suspects – Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, etc. The bullpen is probably the closest thing to a weakness the Red Sox have, as it has been largely middle of the pack since the break.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The Red Sox have close to nothing to play for at this point, whereas the Yankees are fighting for home field advantage in a one-game playoff. That’s a recipe for excitement, isn’t it?

Yankeemetrics: Nightmare beatdown in Boston (August 2-5)

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(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway
The Yankees headed to Boston for a crucial and historic series, the first time the two teams met this late into the season with the two best records in the majors since the famed 1978 tiebreaker game. On Thursday, however, the Yankees were on the wrong side of history in a 15-7 rout.

The Red Sox pummeled them with 15 runs and 19 hits, and added four steals to round out the shellacking. This was the 2,204th game in the history of the rivalry (including the postseason) — and it was the first of those games that the Red Sox scored that many runs, had that many hits and that many stolen bases.

The longball was no help as the Yankees hit four homers and still lost. This was the 43rd time they went deep at least four times in a game against the Red Sox — and the second time they didn’t win. The other game was on Sept. 24, 2010 at Yankee Stadium.

Even more depressing is the fact that they did all that damage and lost by eight runs! To find the last time the Yankees hit four homers, scored at least seven runs and still got whipped by eight-plus runs you have to back more than 75 years to a 15-7 loss on May 21, 1930 to the Philadelphia A’s.

Jonathan Holder did his best to put himself in the Yankee record books — in every bad way possible. He entered in the fourth inning, faced seven batters, allowed all of them to reach base and coughed up seven runs. The only other Yankee pitcher to give up that many earned runs without recording an out in a game was Bob Kammeyer on Sept. 8, 1979 against the Indians. That was only game he pitched in 1979 and the last game Kammeyer ever pitched in the majors.

Let’s finish with a couple silver linings to calm the rage:

  • Didi Gregorius went deep twice and drove in four runs, becoming the first Yankee shortstop ever with at least two home runs and four RBI in a game against the Red Sox.
  • This was the second time the Yankees allowed 14 or more runs to the Red Sox this season (remember the 14-1 disaster on April 10 at Fenway?). The last time the Red Sox scored at least 14 runs twice in a season against the Yankees was 2009.
(USA Today)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part II
The freefall continued on Friday as the Yankees were dominated by Rick Porcello and embarrassed again in a 4-1 loss. They looked like a JV squad playing the state champion varsity team, getting just two guys on base (hit by pitch and home run) the entire game.

It was the first time Yankees had one hit or fewer against the Red Sox since Sept. 10, 1999, the epic Pedro Martinez 17-strikeout game at Yankee Stadium. And the only other time in the last 100 years that Yankees had no more than one hit at Fenway Park was June 7, 1990. That was the first game of the glorious Stump Merrill era.

Porcello was in total control the entire game, never faced a runner in scoring position, retired the final 21 Yankees that came to the plate and needed just 86 pitches to finish them off. The U-G-L-Y numbers, bullet-point style:

  • In the 21 years we have reliable pitch data (since 1988), Porcello is the only pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with at least nine strikeouts and fewer than 90 pitches against the Yankees
  • Porcello is the second Red Sox pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with one or zero hits allowed against the Yankees at Fenway Park. The other guy was Rube Foster who tossed a no-hitter against them on June 21, 1916.
  • And — our daily #SilverLiningStat — the last pitcher on any team to throw a complete game and give up no more than one hit against the Yankees was Roy Halladay on September 4, 2009 in Toronto.

Luis Severino — who had struggled mightily his previous four games — looked like he was going to suffer through another disaster outing after getting pounded for three runs in the first inning.

But he settled down, pitched with more confidence, and had better location before exiting in the sixth. As you can see below, he couldn’t find the plate in the first inning (left) but had much-improved command the rest of the game (right):

Even though Severino might be emerging from his slump, his subpar line (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER) gave him a 8.28 ERA over his last five games. That’s his highest ERA in a five-start span (with no relief appearances in between) in his career.

(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part III
It was deja vu all over again for the Yankees on Saturday, as they dropped another 4-1 dud to the Red Sox. Following their identical 4-1 debacle on Friday, this is the first time since September 1991 that the Yankees scored one run or fewer in consecutive games in a series at Fenway Park.

The Yankees saw their slim division hopes almost extinguished as they fell to a season-worst 8.5 games back in the division, and extended their losing streak to a season-high four games. Prior to this series, the Yankees and Red Sox were the only MLB teams that hadn’t lost more than three games in a row.

For the second straight game the Yankees looked thoroughly overmatched against a dominant Red Sox starter. This time it was Nathan Eovaldi who silenced the Yankee bats, holding them to three singles over eight scoreless innings. Eovaldi and Porcello are the third set of Red Sox teammates since 1908 to pitch at least eight innings and allow no more than three hits on back-to-back days against the Yankees. The others? Mike Boddicker and Greg Harris on June 6-7, 1990, and Rube Foster and Babe Ruth on June 21-22, 1916.

(Getty Images)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part IV
The Yankees capped off the most disappointing and dreadful series of the season with arguably the most painful and brutal loss of the season, losing 5-4 in the 10th inning after starting the ninth inning with a 4-1 advantage.

Chapman imploded in trying to close out the game, walking three batters and all three crossed home plate. He now has seven blown saves as a Yankee, and three of them have come against the Red Sox. The tying run scored on an error by Miguel Andujar; he entered the game with -14 Defensive Runs Saved this season, the worst among all MLB third basemen. This was bad, bad, bad, bad:

  • Entering Sunday they were an MLB-best 58-0 this season when leading at the start of the ninth inning.
  • It was just the second time in the last 10 seasons that they lost a game when taking a lead of at least three runs into the ninth. The other game was September 15, 2016 … against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
  • It was just the fourth time in the last 50 seasons they were swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox; it also happened September 2016, June 1990 and September 1969. All four of those sweeps were at Fenway Park.
  • Yankees are now 8-18 at Fenway Park over the last three seasons, their worst record at any American League ballpark since 2016.

8/2 to 8/5 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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Betts and Benintendi. (Getty)

We interrupt this tour of the worst teams in the American League to bring you this match-up between the two best teams in baseball. First place is not quite on the line, unfortunately, as the Red Sox enter the series with a 5.5 game lead – but the Yankees have a 5-4 advantage in head-to-head play thus far, and the importance of these four games cannot be overstated. I would’ve felt a whole lot better about this series if it wasn’t for yesterday’s infuriating loss to the Orioles, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set to close out June and open July, walking away with a couple of wins. All three games were blowouts, with the closest one being the Yankees 8-1 victory in the first game. Some notes:

  • CC Sabathia had one of his best starts of the season in that first game, pitching to the following line: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K. He went through the lineup four times, and retired the last six batters that he faced in order.
  • Chris Sale shutdown the Yankees offense in the second game (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K), and I’m really happy that he’s not starting in this series.
  • The Yankees hit too many home runs in this series, socking ten dingers in total. The culprits: Aaron Hicks (three times, all in the third game), Greg Bird (twice), Aaron Judge (twice), Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Kyle Higashioka.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Rafael Devers, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Carson Smith, Christian Vazquez, and Steven Wright are all on the disabled list, and none will be back for this series. Pedroia and Smith are almost certainly done for the season, too. Xander Bogaerts is also banged-up, but he’s not expected to land on the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are an MLB-best 75-34 with a +176 run differential; and they’re 19-6 with a +57 run differential since dropping those two games to the Yankees. They also added Nate Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler in the lead-up to the trade deadline, so they’re arguably a bit better now than they were at the beginning of July. And that’s saying something.

If you’re looking for kinks in the armor, you can scroll back up a bit, as the team simply isn’t all that healthy right now.

The Lineup We Might See

Assuming that Bogaerts is able to play, we’ll probably see something like this:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .338/.422/.648, 25 HR, 20 SB, 181 OPS+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .296/.378/.503, 14 HR, 19 SB, 134 OPS+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .323/.391/.638, 32 HR, 3 SB, 169 OPS+
  4. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .264/.337/.475, 12 HR, 1 SB, 114 OPS+
  5. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .275/.342/.513, 15 HR, 2 SB, 125 OPS+
  6. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.304/.404, 13 HR, 9 SB, 94 OPS+
  7. Eduardo Nunez, 3B – .259/.288/.372, 6 HR, 5 SB, 76 OPS+
  8. Sandy Leon, C – .220/.269/.335, 4 HR, 1 SB, 61 OPS+
  9. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .215/.300/.363, 8 HR, 11 SB, 77 OPS+

Steve Pearce (140 OPS+) might get the start at first against CC Sabathia (and J.A. Happ, if he’s able to start), and Blake Swihart (65 OPS+) will start a game or two at catcher. We’ll probably see Brock Holt (96 OPS+) get some action at third base, too.

Eovaldi and his TJS scar. (Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:10 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Brian Johnson

Johnson opened the season in the rotation due to injuries, transitioned to the bullpen after just one start, and then moved back to the rotation at the end of June due to, you guessed it, injuries. The 27-year-old has been quite good as a starter this year, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in six starts (as opposed to a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings out of the bullpen). His peripherals aren’t great, which suggests that there’s regression incoming, but he’s filled-in admirably thus far.

It might not be a stretch to call Johnson a junkballer. He’s basically a three-pitch guy, with a high-80s four-seamer, a high-70s slider, and a mid-70s curveball, but he’ll mix-in a mid-80s sinker and low-80s change every so often.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/26) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Friday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

Porcello is having a fairly typical Porcello season. He’s taken all of his turns in the rotation, he’s eating innings (131.2 IP), limiting walks (5.9%), striking out batters at an average rate (22.4%), and his 4.03 ERA is right around league-average (109 ERA+). And this will be his third start against the Yankees this year – the first was a 7 scoreless innings effort, and the second was a 5.1 IP, 5 run loss.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/28) – 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Nate Eovaldi

The Red Sox acquired Eovaldi from the Rays last week, in exchange for LHP Jalen Beeks (which is not a made-up name). He was decent with the Rays in his first season back from Tommy John Surgery, pitching to a 4.26 ERA (94 ERA+) in 10 starts, with strong peripherals, and was one of the best available arms on the market. It’s a pretty good story, even though he shipped up to Boston.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/29) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

Sunday (8:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP David Price

Price vs. the Yankees in 2018: 4.1 IP, 24.92 ERA (not a typo)

Price vs. everyone else in 2018: 118.0 IP, 3.20 ERA

Last outing (vs. PHI on 7/30) – 8.0 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel remains one of the best closers in the game, pitching to a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 36.6% strikeout rate in 45.0 IP. Matt Barnes (2.30 ERA, 37.6 K%) and Hector Velazquez (2.55 ERA) have been their best middle relievers to-date, and 30-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier (0.90 ERA in 10 IP) has been excellent since his call-up three weeks ago.

Joe Kelly may be the bullpen’s biggest issue right now. He sports an 8.35 ERA since the beginning of June, and manager Alex Cora seems hesitant to use him in higher-leverage situations as a result. They have some depth, but the bullpen looks quite a bit thinner without Kelly serving as a quality bridge to Kimbrel.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The implications of this series are huge, even if the division lead isn’t quite at stake this weekend. One of these teams is going to walk away with a head-to-head advantage, and that’s a big deal. And the fact that neither team is at full strength makes this a slightly more interesting match-up, for me.

Yankeemetrics: Summer slam, Yanks beat Sox (June 29-July 1)

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(AP)

CC The Stoppah
The Yankees kicked off the Most Important Series of the Season with a cruise-control win, 8-1. It was the first time this season Boston lost a game by at least seven runs; prior to Friday, they were the only MLB team that hadn’t suffered a loss of more than six runs.

Gleyber Torres ignited the offense with a his first career triple to lead off the second inning. Congrats to him for being the youngest Yankee to hit a triple in a game against the Red Sox since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle on September 25, 1952.

Miguel Andujar and Greg Bird turned the game into a rout, belting consecutive homers in the fourth inning to put the Yankees ahead 5-0. It was the sixth time this season the Yankees went back-to-back, tied with the A’s for the most in the majors (through Friday), and more than halfway to their 2017 total (11).

Bird’s dinger was a 392-foot rocket to left-center field, a rare type of homer for the pull-heavy lefty. It was just his second career opposite-field shot and the farthest left that he’s gone deep in his career.


Aaron Judge joined the dinger party in the seventh inning, muscling a chest-high fastball over the wall in right-center. It was his 50th longball at Yankee Stadium, as he became the fastest player in MLB history to hit 50 homers at home, doing so in his 259th career game.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful performance, and it was no surprise that he was absolutely brilliant on the biggest stage. He is now …

  • 12-0 with a 2.47 ERA in 18 regular season starts following a Yankee loss since the start of 2017.
  • 3-0 with a 2.34 ERA in six starts this season against teams with a .500 record or better.
  • 6-0 with a 1.83 ERA in his last seven starts vs. the Red Sox dating back to September 2016.

Sabathia is the first Yankee to win six straight decisions against the Red Sox since Ron Guidry also went 6-0 in eight starts against them spanning the 1977-79 seasons.

(Newsday)

Nightmare on River Avenue
Twenty-four hours after celebrating one of their most satisfying wins of the season, the Yankees produced one of their most miserable losses on Saturday night.

They were blitzed, 11-0, tied for the worst shutout loss ever by the Yankees against the Red Sox in the Bronx (also lost 11-0 on Sept. 6, 2003). And the only other time that the Yankees suffered a worse shutout loss to the Red Sox was a 13-0 defeat on May 30, 1941. Saturday’s disaster was the Yankees fourth time being shut out this year (all of them since June 10!), one more than they had for the entire 2017 season.

Chris Sale plowed through the Yankees lineup, overpowering them and making them look silly with his fastball-slider combo. He gave up one single and struck out 11 over seven scoreless innings, nearly matching the 1-hit, 10-strikeout performance he had against them in 2014. Sale is the only pitcher in MLB history to have multiple career games with double-digit strikeouts and no more than one hit allowed against the Yankees.

While Sale was doing his best peak-Pedro impression, Sonny Gray was in full Carl Pavano/A.J. Burnett mode. He was destroyed early and often by the Red Sox, coughing up six runs on seven hits before getting pulled with one out in the third.

Given this matchup — at Yankee Stadium, against the Red Sox — Gray’s awful outing was hardly surprising. The gory details:

  • Gray is the first Yankee ever to pitch consecutive games versus the Red Sox allowing at least six earned runs and throwing no more than three innings (remember April 12?).
  • He is now 0-4 with a 9.35 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox as a Yankee. The only pitchers in franchise history to have a worse ERA in this rivalry (min. 4 starts) are Jose Contreras (16.43) and Andy Hawkins (14.44).
  • His ERA at Yankee Stadium this season ballooned to 8.25 in eight starts. That would be the highest ERA at home for any Yankee pitcher in a single season (min. 5 starts), ahead of Jaret Wright (7.86 in 2005) and Phil Hughes (7.83 in 2011).
  • Gray’s overall ERA is 5.44, putting him on pace to own the worst qualifying ERA in a non-strike season in Yankees history. The current record-holder is Bump Hadley (5.30 in 1937) followed by A.J. Burnett (5.26 in 2010).

Okay, that’s enough ugly stats, here’s something positive: The bullpen, despite allowing five runs in 6 2/3 innings, finished June with a 1.32 ERA. That was the lowest ERA (min. 40 IP) by a Yankee bullpen in any calendar month in the Divisional Era (since 1969).

Home Run Derby in the Bronx
One night after getting embarrassed by their rival, the Yankees got their revenge in style, routing the Red Sox 11-1 to improve to 54-27 at the midpoint of the season. Since the American League went to a 162-game schedule in 1961, this is just the second time that the Yankees have won at least 54 of their first 81 games. The other season was 1998, when they started 61-20.

(NJ.com)

Aaron Hicks was the star of the home run derby with a trio of longballs in the second, fourth and eighth innings. He is just the third Yankee to hit three homers in a game against the Red Sox, joining Mark Teixeira (May 8, 2010) and Lou Gehrig (June 23, 1927), and the first one to do it in the Bronx. Hicks also became the first Yankees leadoff batter ever to go deep three times in a game.

Gleyber Torres broke the game open with a three-run opposite field blast in the first inning to put the Yankees ahead 4-0, his 15th career homer. Playing in his 60th big-league game, he is the first AL player age 21 or younger to hit 15 home runs this early into his career. It was also his sixth homer with at least two men on base this season, the most of any player in MLB.

Kyle Higashioka crushed a homer in the fourth inning for his first career hit; he had been hitless in his first 22 MLB at-bats, the longest hitless streak to start a career by any Yankee to debut in the Live Ball Era (since 1920).

It was deja vu all over again for the Yankees against their perennial punching bag David Price, who allowed a career-high five homers and eight runs before getting the hook in the fourth inning. Let’s recap the cold, hard facts:

  • Price is the first Red Sox pitcher to surrender at least five longballs and eight or more runs at Yankee Stadium (old and new).
  • He is the only pitcher in MLB history to have three games against the Yankees of fewer than four innings pitched and at least eight earned runs allowed (he also did it in 2014 and 2015 with the Tigers).
  • Price’s ERA in nine starts against the Yankees since joining the Red Sox in 2016 is 8.43, easily the highest of any player with at least four starts against them in the last three seasons. And his 10.44 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium with the Red Sox is also the worst of any pitcher that has made more than one start there since 2016.
(NJ.com)

The Yankees had their ace on the mound and Luis Severino tossed a gem, allowing just two hits across 6 2/3 scoreless innings. He’s given up no more than three runs in 15 straight starts, matching the Yankees longest such streak in the Live Ball Era (since 1920), set by Ron Guidry during his 1978 Cy Young-winning campaign.

Since the start of 2017, he has allowed one run or fewer in more than half (25) of his 49 regular season starts.

6/29 to 7/1 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

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Betts and Martinez. (Omar Rawlings/Getty).

Tonight represents not only the battle for first place in the AL East, but also the beginning of the Yankees last homestand of the first half. They’ll host the Red Sox for three games, and then welcome the Braves for another three, before hitting the road for 11 games in 10 days.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees took two of three from the Red Sox back in May, with two of those games being decided by one run. They entered the series trailing the Red Sox by a game, and ended it tied for first; and they’ve traded division leads back and forth ever since. Some notes from the series:

  • Aaron Judge had a great series, going 5-for-10 with a home run, five RBI, and four walks (against just two strikeouts).
  • Judge’s home run was this rocket off of Craig Kimbrel, which was the hardest-hit ball (at 117 MPH) the Red Sox closer has ever allowed.
  • Luis Severino was quite good in the first game, producing the following line: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 11 K. I mention this because it was, by game score, his 10th best start of the season … which is insane. He’s a capital-a Ace.
  • Dellin Betances surrendered what would be the game-winning home run in the third game, which is bad. Since then, however, he has pitched to the following line: 19.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 11 BB, 32 K, 0.47 ERA. And that’s good.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information on the series as a whole.

Injury Report

The Red Sox remain fairly banged-up, with Dustin Pedroia (knee inflammation), Drew Pomeranz (biceps tendinitis), Carson Smith (season-ending shoulder surgery), and Steven Wright (knee inflammation) all on the disabled list, and out until mid-July at the earliest. And then there’s Tyler Thornburg, who has been awful in his rehab tour of the upper minors; he’s eligible to return now, and his 30-day rehab window closes soon – whether or not he’ll get the call is anyone’s guess as of now.

Their Story So Far

Boston is an MLB-best 55-27 with a +125 run differential, and are currently a game ahead of the Yankees in the AL East (and for the best record distinction). They’ve won four in a row by a combined score of 27-9, and are generally playing excellent all-around baseball. And, just for the sake of comparison, they’re one of two teams with a 17-1 stretch this season, with the Yankees being the other.

Painting in broad strokes, the Red Sox are second in the majors in runs scored, second in run differential, sixth in runs allowed, and eleventh in the FanGraphs all-encompassing defense metric. If they do have a weakness, it’s the somewhat ‘stars and scrubs’ nature of their lineup, which you’ll see below.

The Lineup We Might See

The Red Sox lineup has been shaken up by injuries (lest we forget that Betts and Bogaerts both spent time on the DL), poor performances (wait ’til you get a load of some of the numbers below), and surprising cuts (so long, Hanley). However, manager Alex Cora has largely stuck with this template:

  1. Mookie Betts, RF – .336/.425/.676, 20 HR, 14 SB, 193 wRC+
  2. Andrew Benintendi, LF – .286/.370/.512, 13 HR, 13 SB, 137 wRC+
  3. J.D. Martinez, DH – .326/.394/.648, 25 HR, 2 SB, 179 wRC+
  4. Xander Bogaerts, SS – .280/.342/.512, 12 HR, 2 SB, 128 wRC+
  5. Mitch Moreland, 1B – .290/.357/.548, 11 HR, 1 SB, 143 wRC+
  6. Eduardo Nunez, 2B – .254/.287/.362, 5 HR, 4 SB, 73 wRC+
  7. Rafael Devers, 3B – .242/.287/.430, 13 HR, 5 SB, 88 wRC+
  8. Christian Vazquez, C – .224/.262/.318, 3 HR, 1 SB, 55 wRC+
  9. Jackie Bradley, CF – .202/.291/.335, 6 HR, 8 SB, 71 wRC+

Sandy Leon (76 wRC+) will probably get a start at catcher, too.

Sale. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

This will be the second time the Yankees see Rodriguez this year; the first time was back on May 10, when the 25-year-old southpaw tossed 5 scoreless innings, allowing one hit and three walks, while striking out eight. And that has been the norm with this match-up, to an extent, as Rodriguez sits on a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts (56.2 IP) against the good guys. The Yankees have hit him around a few times, to be sure – but he has been quite effective overall. He’s currently sitting on a 3.86 ERA (114 ERA+) in 81.2 IP this season, with above-average strikeout (26.1%) and walk (7.4%) rates.

Last outing (vs. SEA on 6/23) – 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 2 K

Saturday (7:15 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. LHP Chris Sale

Sale’s last outing against the Yankees was very good (6.0 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K), but it may be best remembered for being a part of a Red Sox 14-1 victory back on April 10. That was an awful game to watch, wasn’t it? But I digress. Sale has been his typically brilliant self this year, with a 2.56 ERA (172 ERA+) in 109.0 IP, with an AL-best 153 strikeouts. He’s also in the midst of a fairly dominant stretch, having allowed just four runs in his last four starts (28.0 IP).

Last outing (vs. SEA on 6/24) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K

Sunday (8:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP David Price

The Yankees beat-up on Price back on April 11, knocking him out of the game after just one inning. His Red Sox tenure has been up and down, to say the least, with injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness garnering headlines, and an opt-out looming at the end of this season (spoiler: he’s not going to opt-out of a guaranteed $127 MM). Price has looked like his old self for the last seven weeks or so, pitching to a 2.72 ERA (3.42 FIP) in his last nine starts (56.1 IP), along with strong strikeout and walk rates.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 6/26) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

Aaron Judge’s monstrous home run aside, Craig Kimbrel has been light’s out as the closer, posting a 2.16 ERA and 38.6% strikeout rate, and converting 24 of his 26 save opportunities. Joe Kelly is still the set-up man, and has been solid despite some ups and downs, and Matt Barnes has emerged as a tremendous late innings option. Heath Hembree and Hector Velazquez are their best middle innings options.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a Yankees vs. Red Sox series where first place in the division (and possibly the league) is on the line – what more do you need?

Yankeemetrics: Beasts of East battle in the Bronx (May 8-10)

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(Newsday)

The Good Giancarlo
The Yankees epic and historic romp through the beasts of the AL continued in the series opener with another white-knuckle, drama-filled win over the Red Sox. Through Tuesday, it was their 16th win in the last 17 games (dating back to April 21), a run that is even more remarkable considering that all six teams they’ve faced during this extended stretch were in first or second place in their division at the start of the series.

Giancarlo Stanton sparked the offense early, homering in his first two at-bats to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead after four innings. The home runs couldn’t have been more different, too. The first one was a laser shot he scorched down the left field line and over the fence. It had a launch angle of 17 degrees, the lowest for any of his home runs this season. The second one was a majestic opposite-field shot that left his bat at an angle of 31 degrees, the highest for any homer he’s hit this year.

While Stanton has suffered through an inconsistent start in 2018, he’s had a few outbursts of offensive production, and this was the third time he’s launched two or more homers in a game so far. He’s just the fourth Yankee ever to have three multi-homer games within the team’s first 35 contests, joining A-Rod (2007), Roger Maris (1960) and Mickey Mantle (1956). Oh, and if those names/years sound familiar, it’s because each of the previous three guys went on to win the AL MVP that season.

After the Red Sox battled back to tie the game at 2-2, Aaron Judge took over the hero role when he laced a tie-breaking RBI single in the seventh inning off newest Yankee villain Joe Kelly. Prior to that at-bat, Judge was 0-for-6 with three strikeouts in his career against Kelly. And, though it’s hard to believe, that single was the first time Judge delivered a go-ahead hit in the seventh inning or later at Yankee Stadium.

As the Yankee bats were mostly silent aside from Stanton’s fireworks, Luis Severino shined on the mound, dominating the Red Sox with his ace-like stuff. Overcoming a shaky defense behind him, Sevy struck out 11 and walked none while allowing just two runs across six innings. He became the first Yankee with at least 11 strikeouts and no walks in a game against the Red Sox since Mike Mussina’s memorable near-perfecto on September 2, 2001.

Severino’s slider was nasty as usual (11 whiffs, 9 strikeouts), but more impressive was the increased usage and effectiveness of his changeup. He threw a season-high 24 changeups, showing excellent command of his offspeed stuff. As you can see below, he located nearly all of those changeups in the strike zone or just off the plate, keeping the hitters off-balance while generating six swings-and-misses and six foul strikes with the pitch.

Gritty, Gutty Brett Gardner
The unstoppable pinstriped freight train kept chugging along on Wednesday night, as the Yankees comeback mojo propelled them to yet another wild and crazy victory. It was their 17th win in their last 18 games, and over that span they’ve outscored their opponents by a whopping 65 runs. The only other years that the Yankees had an 18-game run that included at least 17 wins and a run differential of plus-65 or greater were 1953 and 1947 — and both of those seasons ending with a World Series celebration.

You really can’t describe these wins as shocking or stunning anymore — no lead is safe against this Yankees juggernaut. After erasing a 6-5 deficit with four runs in the eighth, this was their AL-best fourth win when trailing at the start of the eighth inning, and all four came in the last two weeks.

Perhaps the most impressive part of their scorching-hot run was that there was a different hero nearly every night. Through Wednesday, during the eight-game win streak, seven different players produced the game-winning run:

  • May 1: Gary Sanchez go-ahead homer in top of ninth
  • May 2: Giancarlo Stanton two-run homer in top of first
  • May 3: Aaron Judge go-ahead RBI groundout in top of ninth
  • May 4: Miguel Andujar walk-off single in ninth
  • May 5: Ronald Torreyes reaches on error in fifth, go-ahead run scores
  • May 6: Gleyber Torres walk-off homer in ninth
  • May 8: Judge go-ahead bases-loaded walk in seventh
  • May 9: Brett Gardner go-ahead triple in eighth
(AP)

Gardner’s heroics capped off a huge breakout game for the struggling leadoff hitter — who entered the game with a .127/.256/.127 line in his previous 18 games (79 plate appearances) — and then went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a triple. He was 1-for-6 with five strikeouts against Craig Kimbrel before knocking in the game-winning run on Wednesday.

#FunFact No. 1: The last Yankee (before Gardner) with a go-ahead triple in the eighth inning or later was Johnny Damon on June 20, 2006 against the Phillies.

#FunFact No. 2: Here’s a list of Yankees with at least three extra-base hits, including a triple, in a game against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium: Gardner, Bobby Brown (9/24/1948), Snuffy Stirnweiss (8/11/1946) and Charlie Keller (5/23/1941).

Judge then tacked on a couple insurance runs in that inning with a titanic two-run blast to center, sending the ball 429 feet with an exit velocity of 117 mph into Monument Park. It was the hardest-hit and the second-longest batted ball allowed by Kimbrel since Statcast tracking began in 2015.

(Newsday)

Bittersweet ending
The Yankees comeback mojo finally went dry on Thursday night, losing the series finale to the Red Sox despite the inevitable late-game rally. This time, however, they couldn’t overcome another bullpen implosion as their eight-game win streak and historic three-week stretch came to an end. The Yankees also had their 11-game home win streak snapped, which was their longest at the current Yankee Stadium.

Dellin Betances wore the goat horns in the loss, surrendering the game-losing homer to J.D. Martinez in the top of the eighth after tossing a perfect seventh inning. It was the fourth home run Betances has allowed in 16 innings this season — he gave up just three longballs in 59 2/3 innings last year. This was also the third time this season that Betances had come out for a second inning, and the results have been ugly: in the second inning of work, he’s allowed six runs on six hits across those three games. However, last year, in those same situations, he allowed zero runs in six games when coming out for a second inning of work.

CC Sabathia was rocked by the Red Sox in his worst start of the season, coughing up four runs on nine hits across four innings before the rain delay. The large lefty had been in vintage ace-like form for much of the season before this clunker, and entered the game riding a slew of favorable trends:

Starts ERA IP ER Runs
Thursday vs Red Sox 1 9.00 4 4 4
Entering the game
Since April 19 4 0.39 23 1/3 1 4
At Home in 2018 4 1.33 20 1/3 3 6
Vs Red Sox Since 9/29/16 5 1.08 33 1/3 4 4

Jonathan Holder was the unsung hero of the game, taking over for Sabathia after the rain delay and keeping the game within reach as he retired all six batters faced. Since being recalled from Triple-A on April 21 (when Adam Warren went on the DL), Holder has been terrific out of the ‘pen. In 8 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just one unearned run on two hits with seven strikeouts and a walk. In his first three appearances of the season before being sent down, he was rocked for an ugly .467/.500/.733 line, giving up seven runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings.