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Mailbag: No Cliff Lee

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Continuing our day of mailbags…

Cliff Lee stays in Texas. What do the Yankees do to fix their rotation?

I like this question because it seems like everyone takes for granted Cliff Lee’s spot in the 2011 rotation. It’s probably going to happen, but there’s always the chance that he finds another team more appealing. That would leave the Yanks with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes in the rotation. In that case I’d have to imagine they’d press hard for Andy Pettitte’s return, which leaves one spot to be filled.

The first place to look is the free agent list, since the team’s biggest advantage is its capital. Unfortunately, that idea dies after a quick glance. There isnly another pitcher on that list I’d consider a viable option. Hiroki Kuroda comes the closest, but I’m not sure the Yankees want to sign a 36-year-old who has spent his three-year career in the NL West.

Before turning to internal options I’m sure the Yankees will explore the trade market. Their farm system had a strong year and they might choose to cash in some of those chips for a proven starter. Zack Greinke’s name will top that wish list, though it will cost the Yankees a couple of their top five prospects and probably a few more top 10 guys. Beyond him I don’t see many attractive candidates. Perhaps the Yanks will attempt to trade for a good pitcher who had a poor 2010 — though no name comes immediately to mind.

That leaves us with players already in the system. Joba Chamberlain could make a return to the rotation. Ivan Nova will probably get a shot, too. But after those two I’m not sure who would make a decent candidate. Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Adam Warren all have promise, but all also need more work in the minors. Hector Noesi might be the closest to the majors among the prospects, but he got hit hard in AAA and probably needs more time there. David Phelps could get a shot as well.

The Yankees can survive without Cliff Lee. But as you can see, it won’t be easy.

Mailbag: Lui, Zhang, Sabathia, A-Rod, Payroll

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Wow, I asked for questions last night in the open thread, and you guys responded big time. Over 20 questions hit the inbox, so don’t feel bad if yours isn’t featured below. We’re actually going to post another mailbag or two today just because there were so many good submissions and we want to get to them all. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box whenever you want to send in a mailbag question in the future.

Ed asks: What is the current status of the Chinese players the Yankees signed 3 or4 years ago?

He’s talking out lefty pitcher Kai Lui and catcher Zhenwang Zhang, who the Yanks signed back in June of 2007. Both were 19 when they signed, and obviously they have not yet come to the United States to begin their pro careers. They did however play for China in the World Baseball Classic last spring, with Lui getting lit up in two relief appearances (1.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HB … so what’s that, a 16.7% strand rate?) and Zhang failing to reach base in six plate appearances while striking out three times.

Wikipedia says both players were released at some point, and we all know wiki is never wrong. Neither Lui or Zhang was much of a prospect anyway, but they were instead the Yanks first venture into the completely untapped baseball market of China. It was a way to get some positive press in the most populated country in the world, and really just the first step in the process. At some point the Yanks will sign another player from China, then another, and after a while one of them will actually be pretty decent and come to the States. It’ll be a slow a process, but a process that started three years ago.

Vinny asks: When C.C. made his start against Toronto the other day, people began to worry that he wouldn’t be in great shape for the post-season because he would be pitching with 8 days rest. I’ve always found these kind of things to be stupid. I once pitched, for my high school team, and I would throw about every 6-7-8 days. Granted, I’m no C.C. and I only threw 65 mph, I feel that it’s not reasonable to think that C.C. wouldn’t be prepared. Whenever I made starts with many days of rest in between, I always felt stronger than ever and the results were pretty good….obviously not good enough, as I currently live with my parents. Awkward. What are your thoughts?

More than anything, I’m just worried about Sabathia’s command coming off the eight day rest. I’m sure he’ll be fine physically, if not stronger than usual, but if he’s having trouble locating his pitches it won’t matter. The last thing the Yankees need is for the other team to work him hard early in and force him out after five or six innings. I’ll admit though, my concerns about the rest are probably overblown.

Planks asks: If A-Rod hadn’t opted out of his contract in 2007, he would be a free agent this year. What kind of contract could he expect to sign?

That’s a mighty fine question. Given his age and the fact that his performance has dropped off a bit this year (.366 wOBA after no worse than .385 since 1998), not to mention the hip issues and PED stigma, you’d have to think that he’d get a smaller deal than Adrian Beltre. That said, power is at a premium these days, and Alex has proven that he can still hit the ball very very far very very often. Maybe he wouldn’t get $20M+ annually, but I bet he’d find something like $13-15M a season for three years on the market. For the record, Joe thinks that’s a little light on the salary.

I’d like to hear from the commentors on this one, because I really don’t feel like I have a hold on A-Rod’s market value at all. I just don’t see too many obvious fits for him, besides maybe the Tigers or Angels.

Mark in VT asks: What is the breakdown for next year’s salaries? I’m concerned that the Yanks won’t be able to “afford” Cliff Lee if they are serious about keeping payroll around $200 million. Also, are you worried with Lee’s workload and recent struggles (small but noticeable)? Is he going to pull a Santana? Thanks.

I broke down the money that’s coming off the books in the very first RAB Mailbag, and for the most part those figures still hold true because none of the trade deadline pickups will be back next season. Back then we narrowed it down to about $50M coming off, with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera still having to be re-signed. Add in Lee and you’ve probably blown the $50M right there. Good thing they’ve got a bunch of cheap options to fill out the bullpen and bench. Cot’s has an in-depth breakdown that shows the Yanks’ payroll situation through 2014, so I recommend checking it out.

The Yanks were willing to go over their reported $200M budget at the deadline this year, and I suspect they’ll be willing to do so next year for a guy like Lee. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they drag the Jeter and/or Rivera negotiations out a bit. It would be a lot easier for Brian Cashman to go to the Steinbrenners in December and say “hey, I need more money to re-sign Derek/Mo” than it would be to say “can I have some more to sign Cliff?”

As for the concerns about Lee’s workload, yeah sure there’s a chance he breaks down at some point, in fact it’s likely just given the nature of pitching. Saying a pitcher is going to get hurt is the safest bet in sports. Lee’s not a terribly big guy (listed at 6-foot-3, 190 lbs.) and his workload over the last three years has been considerable (700.2 innings since Opening Day 2007 not including what he throws this postseason), but he has no history of arm troubles. I mean, yes it’s a concern, but no more than with any other pitcher.

Why the Rangers’ TV deal matters

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Earlier this week, rumors out of Arlington set the Internet abuzzing. The Rangers, reported USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, were on the verge of signing a 20-year, $3-billion TV deal that would guarantee them $150 million in annual payments for the rights to their games. With a new ownership group in place and a playoff berth secured, everything has been coming up roses for the former Washington Senators, and that TV deal, towering over the Dodgers’ $45 million intake, would be the highest for any team that doesn’t own its TV station.

When the final details emerged, the dollar figureds were tempered slightly. The deal will be worth closer to $1.5 to $1.6 billion with the Ranger’s annual take set between $75 and $80 million. Fox Sports will throw in an $80-million signing bonus that the Rangers will receive before the 2011 season. Obviously, this influx of cash concerns Yankee fans because of Cliff Lee and Cliff Lee alone.

For the Yankees, Lee is the one who got away this year, and not everyone was too upset by the machinations of the Mariners at the trade deadline. Because the Mariners wanted to wrestle Justin Smoak away from the Rangers and saw him as a better fit for Safeco Field than Jesus Montero will be and because of concerns over the additional prospects included in the deal, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik sent Lee not to the Yankees in early June but to the Rangers. The Yankees and their fans wanted to have Lee this year to wrap up the AL East and their 28th World Series championship, but they instead were willing to settle for a postseason acquisition.

With this money though, the Rangers could potentially be on footing nearly even with the Yanks when it comes to the dollars. If the Rangers see Lee as a potential cornerstore to a developing rotation and if he propels them through October to the franchise’s first ALCS or even World Series appearance, the Greenberg/Ryan ownership might be willing to part with a few years of TV profits to keep their ace. This TV deal guarantees at the very least that the Rangers will have an additional $60 million in revenue over their previous deal. The club has money to spend, and if two very rich teams want Lee, he will have money showered upon him.

Even with the Rangers’ new-found wealth, money isn’t an obstacle for the Yankees. They’ll have Javier Vazquez’s contract off the books and owe A-Rod less in 2011 and subsequent seasons than they paid him in 2010. Derek Jeter won’t be making $22.6 million either. Plus, the team has a revenue stream that allows them to up their payroll if need be, and Lee is clearly the club’s off-season priority.

That said, the winter’s decision will likely be a personal one for Lee. Even as the Rangers cakewalked their way to an AL West title, Lee went just 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 starts. He’s allowed 99 hits in 101.2 innings, and his home run rate more than doubled from 0.4 with the Mariners to 1.0 per 9 innings with the Rangers. His Texas FIP though is still a cool 3.13, but when rumors emerged in August that Lee wasn’t a big fan of Texas, you could almost hear the Yanks’ executives rubbing their hands with glee.

So Yankee fans should beware. With the Rangers’ revenue and success, they are bound to be active players in the free agent market this year, and that market begins with Cliff Lee. Three months ago, I was ready to count my chickens before they hatched, but today, I’ll hold my breath for two months and hope that Lee wants to come to New York as badly as New York wants him.

Mailbag: Lee, Darvish, Granderson, Bats, ALDS

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Are you guys digging the mailbag? I thought it would be a good way to interact with readers, but I don’t want it to come off as cheap, lazy content. I want it to actually be informative and interesting and stuff. Let me know what you’ve thought of the RAB Mailbag experience so far in the comments.

This week we’re going to tackle Cliff Lee vs. Yu Darvish, Curtis Granderson’s surprising power, maple bats, and the best potential ALDS matchup. If you want to send in a question, use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Kevin asks: This offseason say Cliff Lee hits the market, Yu Darvish is posted, and Andy Pettitte wants to come back, which two do the Yankees chase? Or do they try to find a way to get rid of Burnett and chase all three?

If Pettitte wants to come back, he comes back, guaranteed. That’s not a decision that has to be made, it’s a given.

Between Lee and Darvish, I would think the Yanks prefer Lee. He’s a known commodity in the American League, they’re obviously obsessed with him given how many times they’ve tried to acquire him the last year-and-a-half, and there’s bidding process involved. It’s true free agency. While Darvish is a great young pitcher (younger than Phil Hughes!), he’s a complete unknown when it comes to his ability to succeed in MLB and transition to a new culture and everything. Plus the long-term track record of Japanese starters in MLB isn’t great, though they generally have one or two strong seasons before regressing. That may have something to do with going from a once-a-week schedule to a once every five days schedule. There’s simply much, much more risk.

As much as we might want it to happen, A.J. Burnett’s not going anywhere. Too much money left on the deal ($49.5M), and they’re not going to eat a chunk of it so he could pitch for someone else. For better or worse, A.J.’s here to stay.

Shai asks: Curtis Granderson is a power hitter. How does he generate so much pop, being a small guy who doesn’t look very muscular/strong?

Don’t be fooled, Grandy’s jacked. Watch some Yankees on Deck or something like that when they show him wearing something other than a uniform and you’ll see it. He’s thin, but I bet if you poked him in the chest with your finger it’d be like poking a rock.

Also, pure muscle doesn’t result in homers. A lot of it has to due with bat speed, and too much muscle mass can actually hinder that. Brute strength isn’t everything when it comes to hitting homers.

Joe asks: I was writing to see if you had an opinion on the use of maple bats. Do you think that MLB should ban them from the game for safety? Damon would shatter tons of those last year.

Maple bats are a problem just because they shatter so much more than ash bats. Obviously there was the Tyler Colvin incident a few days ago, but there was also the less publicized Rick Helling incident a few years ago, when a 15-inch piece of a broken bat lodged three inches into his left arm. Yeah, how about that for an under-reported story?

Broken bats are part of baseball, but that’s not a reason to blindly accept the dangers of maple bats. They don’ crack like ash bats, they shatter and splinter and become dangerous projectiles. It’s only a matter of time before a shard of a bat flies into the stands and does something horrible to a fan. I mean, it’s inevitable. Attendance is too high and there are just too many broken bats. Players use maple because they feel like the ball jumps off he bat better, and in fact they’re more expensive than ash.

You would think that the teams themselves would be interested in getting rid of maple bats because those are their players on the field and I imagine they want to protect their investments. The Yanks go to great lengths to monitor Phil Hughes’ workload, but shouldn’t they also want to do away with maple bats to avoid a possible injury to CC Sabathia? I don’t want to tell baseball how to run their league, but the safety of the players and (especially) the fans should be the first thing on their minds.

I guess I never answered the question. Yeah, get rid of them. Easier said than done, of course.

Drew asks: Long-time reader, first-time emailer. I have a slightly controversial question for you and the readers: do we want our Yanks to actually win the Wild Card instead of the AL East? The reason I ask is that the stars appear to be aligning for us to face the Rangers in the ALDS, and I’m more afraid of their rotation than the Twins’. The way the playoff schedule lines up, teams can realistically go with three starters in each series, meaning we’d be facing this Rangers front three: Lee, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. For the Twins, it’d be Liriano, Pavano and Scott Baker. I’d rather face the Twins’ three than the Rangers’. And if we win the AL East we’d almost certainly face the Rangers – whether the Twins grab homefield advantage or not – while if we get the Wild Card it’s almost a lock we play the Twins.

What do you think? Obviously I never like my teams to stumble into the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Rays won this series and held us off the rest of the way, right?

(This was sent in a few days ago, obviously)

I’d prefer a matchup with the Rangers, for many reasons. One, I don’t think the difference in the rotations is all that big. Yes, potentially facing Lee twice in a five game series is scary, but it’s not like facing Liriano instead would be any easier. The Yanks have had their way with Wilson a few times this season, but Lewis is an admittedly tough matchup because he’s got a good changeup and the Yanks have never seem him before. That’s a big double whammy right there, though perhaps the two negatives cancel out into a positive, I dunno. Pavano, despite his past in New York, has pitched well this season and Baker has actually been tough against the Yanks historically. I’d rather face Wilson (who’s thrown more innings this year than he did in 2007, 2008, and 2009 combined) and Lewis (who’s never been in any kind of playoff race in his life) than the duo Minny has backing up their ace.

Two, the Rangers without a healthy Josh Hamilton just aren’t the same. He’s been getting cortisone shots like they’ve been going out of style for his ribs and whatever else, and there’s still no concrete date for his return to the lineup. That dynamic, anything is possible at any time force is missing from their lineup. Yes, the Twins are without Justin Morneau, but their depth makes his loss more tolerable. If Hamilton’s not 100%, I’d much rather take my chances with Vlad Guerrero, Ian Kinsler, David Murphy, and Nelson Cruz than Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young. Of course Hamilton might be healthy and productive by the time the ALDS starts and that would change things, but that’s far from a safe assumption.

Three, for most part the Rangers are playoff virgins. Vlad, Lee, and Darren Oliver have been in playoff games before, but that’s pretty much it. Not their number two or three starters, not their closer or setup men or middle reliever, not most of the lineup. The Twins have all been there, done that before. I don’t want to make a big deal of the experience factor, but I absolutely believe it means something in the postseason. Not as much as I might be making it sound, but I don’t think it’s a negligible factor.

I know they seem completely incapable of beating the Yankees in the Bronx and history is against them, but the Twins scare me more in the short series. They’re playing better right now, have been for the last few months really, and they just seem like a deeper and more dangerous club. This isn’t the NFL where the better team basically always wins, anything can happen in a short series in baseball, but I’d still rather face the team that’s gone 30-27 since mid-July than the one that’s gone 45-17.

The ties that bind Eduardo Nunez and Cliff Lee

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Meet Eduardo Nunez. The 23-year-old short stop out of the Dominican Republic signed with the Yankees in 2004. For AAA Scranton this year, Nunez is hitting .305/.354/.405, and his 107 hits are tops in the International League. He may also be the reason why the Yankees did not acquire Cliff Lee on Friday.

As the story goes, the Yankees and Mariners had a handshake agreement late Thursday night for a swap that would have sent Cliff Lee to the Yankees and Jesus Montero, David Adams and Zach McAllister to Seattle. When Seattle took a look at Adams’ medicals and determined that something in the reports about Adams’ ankle injuries were alarming, they balked on the deal. As Joel Sherman relates this morning, the Mariners went back to Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman and requested Nunez. Here’s how Sherman, clearly with some help from Yankee sources, tells the story:

However, the only way Seattle would have considered accepting a Yankee package once Smoak was included by Texas was if touted Triple-A shortstop Eduardo Nunez was included with Montero. That was the Mariners’ initial request earlier in the month and the Yankees had refused, and they refused again. They simply could not justify, in their mind, giving up their two best position prospects at Triple-A for this trade because they wanted Lee, but they did not absolutely need Lee.

Did the Yanks think Lee was a piece that greatly increased their chances to win a 28th championship? Yes. But at the time of the trade the Yanks had the best record in the majors and believed they could win the championship without Lee and, therefore, could not justify giving up two high-end talents that are nearly major-league ready for Lee, especially because Lee is a free agent after the year and besides the prospect the Yanks would have to pay top-of-the-market dollars to retain Lee.

I have little reason to doubt Sherman, but I can’t wrap my head around this thinking by the Yanks. The team has always thought highly of Nunez; after all, they signed him when he was a 16 year old and moved him to the States for the 2005 season. Following a solid year at Staten Island, Baseball America ranked him sixth in a depleted farm system. As the league’s third-youngest position player, Nunez dazzled in the field and flashed a then-exceptional bat for a middle infielder.

The Yanks were so pleased with Nunez’s 2005 campaign that they bumped him up to the High A club in Tampa, but then the prospect wheels fell off. He didn’t hit in Tampa and then didn’t hit upon being demoted to Charleston. After repeating A ball in 2007 and 2008, Nunez found himself in Trenton in 2009 where he reemerged as a prospect. He hit .322/.349/.433, and Baseball America ranked him 14th in their annual Prospect Handbook. He was the only true short stop ranked in the Yanks’ top 30, but BA projected him as a “utilityman at the big league level.”

“Nunez has athletic ability and good all-around tools,” the book says. “He’s a free swinger who may not have the plate discipline to bring solid power out on a consistent basis. He made good strides with the bat last season, though, making more consistent contact….Nunez has the size, strength and quickness to play shortstop. His arm is his best tool, though it sometimes gets him into trouble on defense when he tries to make plays he shouldn’t. His lack of concentration also contributed to 33 errors in 120 games at short last year.”

Last year, the Yankees restated their commitment to Nunez. The team seems to like his toolsiness, and coverage this year indicates better defensive play and a more focused approach at the plate. He could very well be a better option than Kevin Russo or Ramiro Pena now, but the team doesn’t want to stint his development by having him sit on the bench in the Bronx.

So where does that leave the Yanks? Outside of the fact that they feel jobbed by Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik for the second time in two seasons and probably won’t be too keen on doing the Mariners a favor any time soon, the Yanks may have overplayed their cards. They know Jeter is getting old; they know they’re going to re-sign him; they know he isn’t too keen on moving from his short stop position. They also know they could have had Cliff Lee for Jesus Montero and Eduardo Nunez. Maybe that’s a price too high to pay, but it seems to me as though the Yankee Front Office — who admittedly know more about Nunez than I — are higher on him than most. He hasn’t been a top prospect for four seasons but still has the tools.

Today, the point is mostly a moot one. Unless an obvious offer lands in their lap, the Yankees, says Buster Olney, are “not engaged in any talks about any starting pitcher and at this point, have no plans to” look for one. They went after Cliff Lee because, well, he’s Cliff Lee. They already have one of the best, if not the best, rotations in the American League and are primed for a run at October. Cliff Lee, their obvious winter target, would just be icing on the cake.

Still, as this Lee trade was the biggest deal the Yanks have made that didn’t go down, we’ll be asking these questions as more information comes out. Was it all worth it for Eduardo Nunez?

The aftermath of a Cliff Lee almost-trade

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He coulda been on a better contender. Credit: AP Photo, Elaine Thompson

Twenty four hours ago, I thought Cliff Lee would be in pinstripes. Although I was very hesitant to give up Jesus Montero, Lee is one of the top left-handed pitchers in the game, and a rotation featuring three lefties in Lee, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte along with Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett would have been nearly unstoppable. I had images of dominant second half running through my mind.

As we now know, with the deal 99.9 percent done and with the teams’ already having exchanged medicals, the Mariners pulled out. Ostensibly, they got cold feet over David Adams’ ankle, and that’s an excuse I don’t buy for a second. Players recover from ankle sprains, and Montero — not Adams — was the key piece to the deal. But somehow, the Rangers came a-knockin’, and for Justin Smoak and three others, Lee was theirs for the next two and a half months. Maybe he can bring the franchise their first playoff series victory since joining the league as the Washington Senators in 1961.

The fallout from the Mariners’ dealings have been wide-reaching. The Yankees, as Tyler Kepner writes, are mad at the Mariners. A year ago, Seattle asked for Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn; this year, they could have landed Jesus Montero for Cliff Lee. By now, I’m sure Brian Cashman has grown tired of the Mariners’ antics, and the prevailing sense in the organization is that Seattle used them to get Smoak.

Although a general manager is obliged to make one last call before signing off on a deal, others in baseball feel the Mariners went to far, says Joel Sherman and George A. King III. The Yankees, say the two well-connected Post reporters, believed the deal to be done pending acceptance of physical reports, but the Mariners on Friday started to ask around for Eduardo Nunez instead of David Adams. The Yankees were hesitant after agreeing to a framework of a deal the night before. “The Yankees do not do business that way,” a Yankee official said to the Post. “When we say something is a deal, it is a deal.”

In the same article, Cliff Lee said that he spoke with CC Sabathia on Thursday night, expecting to rejoin his former Cleveland teammate in pinstripes. Sabathia mentioned yesterday that Lee was looking forward to being a Yankee, and Lee speculated that the media coverage made the Rangers up their offer. Generally, that’s the way these trades work, and the Mariners would have gone back to the Rangers whether The Post had broken the story or not. For what it’s worth, Torii Hunter, who wants to be a GM one day, believes the Mariners broke an unwritten rule when they traded Lee within the division. Of course, he’s saying that because now the Angels have to go through Lee and the Rangers to reach the playoffs.

Interesting, in all of the coverage of the prospects, the Yankees now seem more willing to trade Jesus Montero than they were a few months ago when Roy Halladay was available. With the emergence of Austin Romine and the depth at catcher which includes a 17-year-old Gary Sanchez now with the Rookie Leagues and probably three or four years away, the team is loaded at that position. Club officials are not confident that Montero will stick behind the plate even as they believe he could bring an impact bat to the lineup. As trading him would have been a reasonable move, keeping him is just as positive for the future of the franchise.

For now, the consensus around baseball is that the Yankees will get their man a few weeks after the World Series ends. If it’s only a matter of money for Lee, the Yanks’ offer will trump all others. They didn’t get their man yesterday through no fault of their own, and now they might have to go through him to reach World Series title number 28. They’ve done it before; they can do it again.

Rangers set to acquire Cliff Lee

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Via Joel Sherman, the Rangers are set to acquire Cliff Lee and reliever Mark Lowe from the Rangers for Justin Smoak and three others. Lowe is on the disabled list after having back surgery and isn’t expected back anytime soon. I have to assume that Seattle is paying Lee’s salary given Texas’ financial plight. Either way, it’ll be nice not to have to face the former Cy Young Award winner tonight.

You have to figure that the working relationship between Brian Cashman and Jack Zduriencik is strained at the moment, assuming the rumors of a deal being all but complete were true.