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Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

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(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Bullpenning the Wild Card Game

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(Presswire)

In the 2017 AL Wild Card game between the Yankees and the Twins, lightning struck three times. First, Luis Severino, who’d established himself as an ace in the regular season, had nothing and gave up three runs while recording just one out. Second, the Yankees’ offense immediately came back in the bottom of the first. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the Yankees’ bullpen was virtually flawless, going 8.2 innings, surrendering just one run, and allowing only five hits and three walks. While it wasn’t the plan, the Yankees bullpened their most important game of the season to date.

While the Yankees certainly had the bullpen strength to plan that sort of game, it wasn’t what they intended. It happened by necessity and paid off. Had they planned to go the bullpen route, who knows what would’ve happened.

Once again, the Yankees are poised to make the Wild Card game and have a strong bullpen. Their ace has struggled at times, as has his ‘back up’ in Masahiro Tanaka. Should the Yankees employ the bullpen strategy during the Wild Card game?

It’s easy to see the bare bones of how they could do such a thing. Chad Green or Dellin Betances could start the game, using their high-octane stuff against the top of the order. For argument’s sake, let’s say it’s Green who goes first and handles the first two innings. After that, you could throw in one inning of Jonathan Holder against the bottom of the lineup to get you through the third, then Betances for two in the fourth and fifth. From there, David Robertson takes the sixth and seventh with Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman for an inning each to end it.

Alternatively, the Yankees could have a reliever start the game, throw two innings, and hand the ball to a starter for the next three before he makes way for the back end of the bullpen–Robertson, Betances, Britton, Chapman playing matchups.

This strategy is certainly tempting, but ultimately, I think only the absolute right set of circumstances would need to exist for it to be something the Yankees should try. First, the Yankees would need to be ‘out’ of viable starters. To me, that means that they had to fight for a playoff spot or division title down the stretch and used one of Severino or Tanaka before the Wild Card game. Second, they would need to try it at least once or twice in the regular season. Pitchers tend to be creatures of habit and having them break those habits for the first time before the biggest game of the season would likely be unwise.

Despite any struggles they’ve had this year, I’m much more inclined to trust Luis Severino or Masahiro Tanaka in a big game like the Wild Card game than I am a new strategy, even if it should work in theory. It’s something the pitchers are likely to be unfamiliar with and the playoffs is not the time to make your own players uncomfortable.

Yankeemetrics: Nightmare beatdown in Boston (August 2-5)

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(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway
The Yankees headed to Boston for a crucial and historic series, the first time the two teams met this late into the season with the two best records in the majors since the famed 1978 tiebreaker game. On Thursday, however, the Yankees were on the wrong side of history in a 15-7 rout.

The Red Sox pummeled them with 15 runs and 19 hits, and added four steals to round out the shellacking. This was the 2,204th game in the history of the rivalry (including the postseason) — and it was the first of those games that the Red Sox scored that many runs, had that many hits and that many stolen bases.

The longball was no help as the Yankees hit four homers and still lost. This was the 43rd time they went deep at least four times in a game against the Red Sox — and the second time they didn’t win. The other game was on Sept. 24, 2010 at Yankee Stadium.

Even more depressing is the fact that they did all that damage and lost by eight runs! To find the last time the Yankees hit four homers, scored at least seven runs and still got whipped by eight-plus runs you have to back more than 75 years to a 15-7 loss on May 21, 1930 to the Philadelphia A’s.

Jonathan Holder did his best to put himself in the Yankee record books — in every bad way possible. He entered in the fourth inning, faced seven batters, allowed all of them to reach base and coughed up seven runs. The only other Yankee pitcher to give up that many earned runs without recording an out in a game was Bob Kammeyer on Sept. 8, 1979 against the Indians. That was only game he pitched in 1979 and the last game Kammeyer ever pitched in the majors.

Let’s finish with a couple silver linings to calm the rage:

  • Didi Gregorius went deep twice and drove in four runs, becoming the first Yankee shortstop ever with at least two home runs and four RBI in a game against the Red Sox.
  • This was the second time the Yankees allowed 14 or more runs to the Red Sox this season (remember the 14-1 disaster on April 10 at Fenway?). The last time the Red Sox scored at least 14 runs twice in a season against the Yankees was 2009.
(USA Today)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part II
The freefall continued on Friday as the Yankees were dominated by Rick Porcello and embarrassed again in a 4-1 loss. They looked like a JV squad playing the state champion varsity team, getting just two guys on base (hit by pitch and home run) the entire game.

It was the first time Yankees had one hit or fewer against the Red Sox since Sept. 10, 1999, the epic Pedro Martinez 17-strikeout game at Yankee Stadium. And the only other time in the last 100 years that Yankees had no more than one hit at Fenway Park was June 7, 1990. That was the first game of the glorious Stump Merrill era.

Porcello was in total control the entire game, never faced a runner in scoring position, retired the final 21 Yankees that came to the plate and needed just 86 pitches to finish them off. The U-G-L-Y numbers, bullet-point style:

  • In the 21 years we have reliable pitch data (since 1988), Porcello is the only pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with at least nine strikeouts and fewer than 90 pitches against the Yankees
  • Porcello is the second Red Sox pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with one or zero hits allowed against the Yankees at Fenway Park. The other guy was Rube Foster who tossed a no-hitter against them on June 21, 1916.
  • And — our daily #SilverLiningStat — the last pitcher on any team to throw a complete game and give up no more than one hit against the Yankees was Roy Halladay on September 4, 2009 in Toronto.

Luis Severino — who had struggled mightily his previous four games — looked like he was going to suffer through another disaster outing after getting pounded for three runs in the first inning.

But he settled down, pitched with more confidence, and had better location before exiting in the sixth. As you can see below, he couldn’t find the plate in the first inning (left) but had much-improved command the rest of the game (right):

Even though Severino might be emerging from his slump, his subpar line (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER) gave him a 8.28 ERA over his last five games. That’s his highest ERA in a five-start span (with no relief appearances in between) in his career.

(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part III
It was deja vu all over again for the Yankees on Saturday, as they dropped another 4-1 dud to the Red Sox. Following their identical 4-1 debacle on Friday, this is the first time since September 1991 that the Yankees scored one run or fewer in consecutive games in a series at Fenway Park.

The Yankees saw their slim division hopes almost extinguished as they fell to a season-worst 8.5 games back in the division, and extended their losing streak to a season-high four games. Prior to this series, the Yankees and Red Sox were the only MLB teams that hadn’t lost more than three games in a row.

For the second straight game the Yankees looked thoroughly overmatched against a dominant Red Sox starter. This time it was Nathan Eovaldi who silenced the Yankee bats, holding them to three singles over eight scoreless innings. Eovaldi and Porcello are the third set of Red Sox teammates since 1908 to pitch at least eight innings and allow no more than three hits on back-to-back days against the Yankees. The others? Mike Boddicker and Greg Harris on June 6-7, 1990, and Rube Foster and Babe Ruth on June 21-22, 1916.

(Getty Images)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part IV
The Yankees capped off the most disappointing and dreadful series of the season with arguably the most painful and brutal loss of the season, losing 5-4 in the 10th inning after starting the ninth inning with a 4-1 advantage.

Chapman imploded in trying to close out the game, walking three batters and all three crossed home plate. He now has seven blown saves as a Yankee, and three of them have come against the Red Sox. The tying run scored on an error by Miguel Andujar; he entered the game with -14 Defensive Runs Saved this season, the worst among all MLB third basemen. This was bad, bad, bad, bad:

  • Entering Sunday they were an MLB-best 58-0 this season when leading at the start of the ninth inning.
  • It was just the second time in the last 10 seasons that they lost a game when taking a lead of at least three runs into the ninth. The other game was September 15, 2016 … against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
  • It was just the fourth time in the last 50 seasons they were swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox; it also happened September 2016, June 1990 and September 1969. All four of those sweeps were at Fenway Park.
  • Yankees are now 8-18 at Fenway Park over the last three seasons, their worst record at any American League ballpark since 2016.

2018 Midseason Review: The Bullpen

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(Presswire)

As expected, the bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees so far this season. The relief crew actually got off to a bit of a rocky start the first week or two, though things have settled down nicely since, and Aaron Boone now has arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the game at his disposal.

Here are the team’s bullpen ranks 95 games into the season:

  • ERA: 2.69 (first)
  • FIP: 3.01 (second)
  • WHIP: 1.08 (second)
  • Strikeout Rate: 31.6% (first)
  • Shutdowns: 102 (fifth)
  • Meltdowns: 37 (first)
  • WAR: +6.6 (first)

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a neat win probability stat. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team’s win probability least 6%. Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6%. Long story short, the Yankees have had an excellent bullpen this year, and that was the expectation coming into the season. Time to grade the relievers.

Dellin Betances

Midseason Grade: A

Expectations for Betances were pretty low coming into the season. He collapsed down the stretch last year and his control disappeared — Dellin walked eleven batters in his final 12.2 regular season innings — so much so that he was basically persona non grata in the postseason. Use only in an emergency. The Yankees stuck with Betances over the winter when much of the fan base was ready to dump him.

And, coming out of the gate this year, it seemed Betances was still broken. He allowed a homer in his first appearance of the season and Kevin Pillar embarrassed him by stealing his way around the bases in his second appearance. Six appearances into the season, Betances had allowed six runs on ten hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He allowed three homers in his first 6.2 innings this year after allowing three homers in 59.2 innings last year.

Something funny happened after that: All-Star Dellin Betances returned. The Yankees and Boone said they were going to stick with Betances and get him right, and they did. Since April 14th, Betances has pitched to a 1.56 ERA (1.70 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (44.1%), lots of grounders (48.2%), and a tolerable amount of walks (11.8%) in 34.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .121/.244/.164 against him in those 34.2 innings. The knee-bucklers are back. The swag is back.

With Betances, given his history, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will this be the outing when he hits a batter and walks three? I get it, and it’s not an unreasonable feeling after last season. For now though, Betances has reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and gone back to being a monster strikeout machine. He could’ve gone to his fifth straight All-Star Game this year but did not. That doesn’t diminish his season performance at all.

Aroldis Chapman

Midseason Grade: A

The first year of Chapman’s reliever record five-year, $86M contract did not go according to plan. He got hurt early in the season and lost his closer’s job at midseason before finding it late and dominating in the postseason. This year, Chapman has come right out of the gate looking like the historically great late-inning reliever he’s been basically his entire career.

Through 95 team games Chapman has a 1.35 ERA (1.49 FIP) with his typically excellent strikeout rate (44.2%) and a strong ground ball rate (46.3%). His 10.4% walk rate is a tick below his 11.3% career average. Chapman is 26-for-27 in save chances and, in the one blown save, he didn’t even get hit around. A single, a hit-by-pitch, and two wild pitches pushed a run across. And the Yankees won that game anyway, so who cares?

We are more than halfway through the season now, so we can say for sure Chapman’s trademark velocity is down a tick. He’s averaging a still otherworldly 99.7 mph with his fastball. That’s down from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. You have to go back to 2013 for the last time Chapman’s average fastball velocity was this low. We still see a few 103s and 104s, though not nearly as frequently as in the past.

Chapman is 30 years old now and he has been pitching basically his entire life, so a little velocity loss is no surprise. It is completely natural. He’s compensated for that velocity loss — again, the dude is still averaging 99.7 mph with his heater, so it’s not like he’s out there slinging mid-80s gas — with more sinkers and more sliders, especially with two strikes. It has worked wonderfully too.

Amazingly, Chapman has pitched this well despite ongoing tendinitis in his left (push-off) knee. He’s been dealing with it for weeks and he’s admitted he’ll probably have to deal with it all season. Chapman is getting regular treatment and it hasn’t stopped him from taking the mound — the knee did force him to leave a game earlier this month, though that had more to do with not wanting to push it with a four-run lead than “I can’t pitch it hurts too much” — so that’s good.

I’m not a big fan of players — especially very important players — playing through an injury, but what I think doesn’t matter, so Chapman will continue to pitch through the knee trouble. The doctors know better than me anyway. Even with the knee trouble, Chapman is having a truly outstanding season, a season that deservedly sent him to the All-Star Game. He’s been a rock in the ninth inning. Hand him a lead and the game is over.

A.J. Cole

Midseason Grade: A+

Cole is that kid whose family moved in the middle of the school year and the teachers at his new school grade him on a curve. The Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals in a cash trade on April 24th because they needed a long man, and, as a 26-year-old former top 100 prospect, he offered some upside. Cole was terrible with Washington — he allowed 15 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.1 innings before the trade — but he was a low risk pickup. At worst, he’d soak up some innings in a blowout, then be cast aside for the next guy.

Instead, Cole has become the best long man the Yankees have had in quite some time. Probably since 2013 Adam Warren. He’s allowed one run in 18.2 innings around a minor neck injury, striking out 24 and holding opponents to a .172/.243/.234 batting line against. The Yankees, as they are wont to do, have Cole throwing far more sliders than ever before.

The Yankees have such a good bullpen that they haven’t needed Cole to pitch in high (or even medium) leverage situations. His average leverage index when entering the game is 0.53. That’s nothing. That is 33rd lowest among the 324 relievers with at least ten innings pitched this season. Perhaps there will come a time when Cole can audition for high leverage work. Right now, the Yankees don’t need him in that role. He can be a highly effective long man and there’s nothing wrong with that at all.

Chad Green

Midseason Grade: B

Two things are true this season. One, Green has been very good overall. Two, Green has not been as good as last season. Two blowups in two appearances prior to the All-Star break left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, though, prior to those last two appearances, Green had a 1.91 ERA (2.39 FIP) in 42.1 innings. He was fantastic and he probably deserved to go to the All-Star Game.

Here is 2017 Chad Green vs. 2018 Chad Green:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% HR/9 Fastball Whiff%
2017 69 1.83 1.75 40.7% 6.7% 0.52 37.9%
2018 46 2.74 3.01 31.5% 5.0% 1.17 27.7%

Good numbers overall but also some discouraging trends. Green’s strikeouts are down, he’s not getting as many swings and misses with his trademark fastball, and his home run rate is up. He’s allowed six homers in 46 innings this season after allowing four homers in 69 innings last year, so yeah. That includes two back-breaking homers in his last two appearances of the first half.

I think Green’s step back this season — and by step back, I mean going from elite to merely above-average — has more to do with it being incredibly hard to succeed as a fastball only guy. Green’s slider kinda stinks but his fastball is great in terms of velocity and spin rate. But unless you have Chapman’s velocity, it’s hard to throw fastballs by hitters long-term. Green did it most of the season. Things kinda got away from him those last two outings.

Aside from Chapman, pretty much every reliever in the bullpen has been written off at some point this season. People were ready to move on from Betances, from David Robertson, from Jonathan Holder, so on and so forth. It seems it is now Green’s turn. Fortunately, the Yankees call the shots, not fans, and they’ll stick with Green and work to get him right. And, chances are, he’ll get right soon enough. No, Green has not been as good as last year. But he’s still been very good overall, and I see those last two outings as more of a bump in the road than anything.

Jonathan Holder

Midseason Grade: A

Another reliever who gets an A. Fourth in five reviews so far. Holder was in the Opening Day bullpen as basically the last guy on the roster, though he quickly earned a demotion to Triple-A after allowing seven runs and eight baserunners in his first 2.2 innings of the season. That includes taking the loss in a frustrating 14-inning game against the Orioles on April 6th.

Holder went to Triple-A, resurfaced in late April after Adam Warren went down with a lat issue, and since then he’s been out of this world good. He’s thrown 36.1 innings with a 0.50 ERA (1.99 FIP) since returning, with a good strikeout rate (22.4%) and an excellent walk rate (3.7%). It felt like he “arrived” on June 18th, when he inherited runners on the corners with no outs and a one-run lead against the Nationals, and didn’t allow a run to score.

Holder’s newfound success comes after a change in his pitch mix. He went to Triple-A, scrapped his high-spin curveball, and came back as a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. He’s always had the slider and changeup, but they took a backseat to the curveball. Now the curveball is taking a backseat to the slider, which he uses against righties, and the changeup, which he uses against lefties.

Goodbye curveball (and cutter), hello slider and changeup. That adjustment has helped Holder make the jump from up-and-down depth arm to reliable middle reliever. In fact, on most other teams, I reckon Holder would be pitching in a traditional setup role by now. But because the Yankees are so deep in quality relievers, Boone is able to use Holder in the middle innings, when the starter bows out early and it’s a little too early to go to Betances and Green. Holder has been invaluable in that role.

Tommy Kahnle

Midseason Grade: F

Tough, but fair. Expectations were high for Kahnle coming into the season because he was so good last year and so effective in the postseason. Instead, Kahnle has been injured and ineffective this year. He’s allowed eleven runs and 16 baserunners in nine big league innings around a biceps/shoulder injury, and, worst of all, he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Ten apiece. Ouch.

The Yankees sent Kahnle to Triple-A in early June — he essentially lost his middle innings job to Holder — and, with Triple-A Scranton, he owns a 2.81 ERA (2.32 FIP) with 37.6% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 16 innings. That’s good. Certainly better than what he did in his limited big league time this year. So it’s not like Kahnle has suddenly forgotten how to pitch, you know?

The big issue this year is fastball velocity. Kahnle’s heater averaged 98.1 mph last year and 97.0 mph the year before. This season it was down to 95.6 mph. The fastest pitch he threw with the Yankees this year checked in at 97.6 mph. That’s still below last year’s average fastball velocity. Minor league velocity reports can be unreliable, though they have Kahnle sitting 95-96 mph with the RailRiders.

On one hand, 95-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs at the big league level. Holder’s fastball is averaging only 93.2 mph this season, for example. On the other hand, Kahnle is not exactly blessed with great command. He’s a pure grip it and rip it pitcher, and hey, that works too. Worked great for him last year. But Kahnle at 95-96 mph is a different animal than Kahnle at 98-99 mph. Especially since the velocity on his changeup is unchanged. The velocity gap between the two pitches is smaller and that makes both of them less effective.

Kahnle has been down in the minors long enough to delay his free agency, which I guess is good for the Yankees. I suspect they’d happily trade that extra year of control for a healthy and effective Kahnle at the big league level though. He was part of that big trade last season with the idea that he’d be a long-term bullpen piece. Instead, Kahnle has been a non-factor this season, and it’s unclear whether he’ll regain last year’s effectiveness at some point.

David Robertson

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Midseason Grade: B+

Ho hum, another typically strong David Robertson season. He’s basically the CC Sabathia of the bullpen at this point. Still very effective, still lots of folks seemingly ready to call him done any time he stumbles. Robertson had a rough patch in May but has otherwise been very good this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA (2.47 FIP) with strikeout (30.5%) and walk (8.1%) rates right in line with his career norms. He is the same guy he’s always been.

Betances’ reemergence and Green’s overall effectiveness has allowed Boone to use Robertson in all sorts of situations. He’s brought him into the middle of an inning to escape a jam, used him as a seventh and eighth inning guy, and Robertson has even gone 2-for-2 in save chances on days Chapman was unavailable. Robertson has made 43 appearances this season. Here’s when he’s entered the game:

  • Sixth Inning: 4 times
  • Seventh Inning: 13 times
  • Eighth Inning: 17 times
  • Ninth Inning: 5 times
  • Extra Innings: 4 times

That is a man who is not married to a specific inning. Robertson was out of this world good after rejoining the Yankees last season — he allowed four runs in 35 innings after the trade — and he was great in the postseason. He hasn’t been quite that good this year, but he’s been very good overall. As good as he is, I still get the feeling Robertson is underappreciated. He’s a hell of a reliever.

Chasen Shreve

Midseason Grade: D

I suppose you could argue Shreve is meeting expectations. He owns a 4.54 ERA (5.22 FIP) with 28.8% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 33.2 innings this season. From 2016-17, he pitched to a 4.37 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 11.2% walks in 78.1 innings. Shreve is the same guy right now that he’s been the last two years. Unfortunately, that makes him a replacement level reliever.

As the very last guy in the bullpen — and that’s what I think he is at this point, I think Cole has jumped him in the pecking order — Shreve is okay. He’s someone who takes a beating in blowout games, basically. The problem isn’t Shreve, really. It’s that Boone keeps using him in somewhat leveraged left-on-left matchup situations even though Shreve isn’t good against lefties. They’re hitting .239/.364/.556 (.386 wOBA) against him this year. Yuck.

The Yankees clearly like Shreve. He wouldn’t have stuck on the roster this long otherwise. And I get it. He’s a just turned 28-year-old southpaw with a history of missing bats. Guys like that are hard to find. If another team had Shreve and they designated him for assignment, I’d look at him as a potential reclamation project pickup. If Boone stops using Shreve as a left-on-left guy and starts using him as a mop-up man, he’ll be fine. It’d be fine. Just fine.

Adam Warren

Midseason Grade: B

Once again, Warren has been a boringly reliable Swiss Army Knife reliever this season. He did miss more than six weeks with a lat strain, which drags down his midseason grade, otherwise the guy has thrown 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA (2.94 FIP) and very good strikeout (28.4%) and walk (8.8%) rates. And he is what, the sixth best reliever in the bullpen? Yeah, that’ll play.

I get the sense Warren will take on increased responsibility in the second half. The injury threw a wrench into things in the first half and it seems Boone is still trying to figure out when exactly to use him. In the second half though, I think Warren will be used for more multi-inning stints in the middle of the game as the Yankees look to control Luis Severino’s workload and also try to shorten games by not letting their starter go through the lineup a third time.

Either way, Warren has again been a reliable bullpen arm who flies under the radar because the Yankees have so many good relievers. Missing all that time with the lat injury stinks, but you know what? It gave Holder an opportunity to emerge, and the Yankees are a better team now because of it. In that sense, Warren’s injury turned out to be a good thing. Now he’s healthy and again an effective do it all bullpen option.

Yankeemetrics: Bounceback Bombers in Philly (June 25-27)

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(AP)

Rebound in Philly
One day after suffering through a nightmare weekend at the Trop, the Yankees headed north and snapped their three-game skid with a 4-2 win over the Phillies on Monday night.

With the victory, the Yankees improved to an MLB-leading 24-9 (.727) against teams with a winning record. Sounds impressive, eh? Yup, it would be the best winning percentage by a team in the Modern Era (since 1900) in games versus opponents with a better than .500 record; the 1906 Cubs (31-12, .721) currently hold the top mark.

Jonathan Loaisiga was brilliant as he retired the first 12 batters (including seven via strikeout) and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before giving up a leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. He finished his stellar outing with one hit allowed and eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings.

At the age of 23 years and 235 days old, he became the second-youngest pitcher in franchise history to allow no more than one hit, strike out at least eight batters and not give up a run in a game. The only guy younger was a 22-year-old Al Downing when he threw a one-hit, 10 strikeout shutout against the White Sox on July 2, 1963.

And this performance combined with his five-inning scoreless debut on June 15 earns him our #FunFact of the series: He is the first pitcher in franchise history to go at least five innings, allow three hits or fewer and zero earned runs in two of his first three career games.

How dominant was Jonny Lasagna? Not only did he strike out nearly half (8) of the 19 batters he faced, but Alfaro’s single was the only ball that left the infield. Of the eight batted balls that went fair, just one was hit harder than 96 mph.

One of the keys to his excellent performance was his ability to execute with two strikes and putaway batters. 13 of the 19 batters went to two strikes on Monday, and Loaisiga retired 11 of them, with one hit and one walk allowed. In his first two starts, nine of the 26 batters (35%) that got into two-strike counts against him reached base.

Aaron Judge gave the Yankees a 2-0 cushion in the fifth with a screaming line drive homer to left field.

It was his 20th longball of the season, the second straight year he reached that milestone this early into the schedule (team game number 76). He is the first right-handed batter in team history to do that in consecutive seasons, and the list of all Yankees to do it back-back years in a short one:

Aaron Judge (2017-18)
Curtis Granderson (2011-12)
Roger Maris (1960-61)
Mickey Mantle (1956-58, 1960-61)
Lou Gehrig (1929-32)
Babe Ruth (1920-21, 1923-24, 1926-28, 1930-33)

Thank you, Cy Sevy
The Yankees continued to build momentum following their miserable series in Florida as they beat up on the Phillies for a second straight night on Wednesday. The 6-0 blanking was their biggest Interleague shutout win on the road in a decade, since they whitewashed the Mets 9-0 at Shea Stadium in the second game of the two-stadium doubleheader on June 27, 2008.

Aaron Hicks jump-started the offense with a lead-off homer on the third pitch of the game. It was his first lead-off shot in pinstripes (er, road grays), and the first by any Yankee in an Interleague game since Derek Jeter hit one on June 20, 2012 against the Braves.

Didi Gregorius capped off the scoring with his 15th home run of the season in the fifth inning, the third season in a row he’s reached that mark. The only other MLB shortstops with at least 15 dingers in each of the last three years (2016-18) are Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor.

(USA Today)

The best Yankee performance of the night was delivered by Luis Severino, who tossed seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. He was in complete control of nearly every at-bat, aggressively attacking hitters early as he threw first-pitch strikes to 23 of 26 batters, a career-best rate of 88.5 percent.

His electric, high-octane fastball was in peak form — its average velocity of 98.6 mph was the second-highest of his career — as he used it both to get ahead in the count and finish off batters. Of the 23 first-pitch strikes he threw, 21 came with his four-seamer. He also ended four of his nine strikeouts with 99-plus mph fastballs, and now has 20 strikeouts with pitches of at least 99 mph. Every other starting pitcher in MLB combined for 22 strikeouts on pitches 99 mph or faster (through Tuesday).

Despite the near-triple-digit radar readings on his fastball, the pitch wasn’t a swing-and-miss weapon for Severino. Instead, the excellent movement and deception of the pitch (especially relative to his sharp-breaking slider), combined with his ability to pound the zone, consistently fooled the Phillies batters. He got a career-best 20 called strikes with his four-seamer and only a couple of them were on the edges of the zone:

This was his fifth scoreless start with at least seven strikeouts in 2018, the most of any pitcher in the majors this season. He’s also the first pitcher in franchise history to throw five such starts in the first half of a season.

And, in case you need some visual proof that Severino belongs on the list of baseball’s most elite pitchers, our favorite stat ….

No runs, no win, no sweep
There would be no sweep in Philly as the Yankees offense went M.I.A on Wednesday night and sleepwalked through a listless 3-0 loss.

They’ve now been shut out three times this season, matching their entire total from 2017. All three blankings have come in June and all three have come on the road. The only other time since 1990 that the Yankees suffered three road shutouts in a single calendar month was when they had five(!) in September 2016.

(AP)

Kyle Higashioka got his first start of the season but is still looking for his first career big-league hit after going 0-for-2. His streak of 20 hitless at-bats to start a career is tied with Dusty Cooke (1930) for the longest by a Yankee position player who debuted with the team in the Live Ball Era (since 1920).

After starter Luis Cessa was shelled for three runs in three innings, a trio of bullpen arms — Giovanny Gallegos, Jonathan Holder and Domingo German — held the Phillies scoreless the rest of the game. Holder now has gone 23 straight outings without allowing an earned run, dating back to his recall from Triple-A on April 21. That’s puts him in some pretty impressive company:

Jonathan Holder has done enough to earn a spot in the bullpen even after Adam Warren returns

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(Presswire)

Last night Adam Warren made his second minor league rehab appearance since going down with a lat injury last month, throwing three scoreless innings with Double-A Trenton. His first rehab outing with Triple-A Scranton a few days ago did not go well at all. Warren walked two and hit two, and allowed four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Terrible outing, but he felt good physically, and that’s all that matters during a rehab assignment.

“He came out of it feeling fine,” said Aaron Boone to George King following Warren’s first rehab game. “No giant red flags physically speaking, so that is good. Hopefully get better results next time out but nothing too alarming.”

Whenever Warren does return — following yesterday’s game Boone made it sound like Warren could be back at some point within the next week — the Yankees will have to squeeze him into their eight-man bullpen somehow. We know who’s staying and who has a chance to go. Barring injury, Warren will replace either Chasen Shreve, Jonathan Holder, or A.J. Cole. The other dudes are safe. You know it, I know it, they know it.

Cole seems to have taken well to the team’s anti-fastball philosophy and Shreve, like Cole, is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers, and since he’s left-handed and breathing, he’d likely get claimed. Holder can be optioned down and in these situations teams often take the path of least resistance. Send down Holder and you get to keep everyone. Dump Cole or Shreve and you’re losing a bullpen arm.

Over the last few weeks though, Holder hasn’t just shown the Yankees he deserves a longer look, he’s quickly become one of their better relievers. The Yankees called Holder up when Warren hit the disabled list and since then he’s settled in as the fifth guy in the bullpen behind Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Chad Green. That’s the role Warren or Tommy Kahnle was supposed to fill, but haven’t for various reasons.

Holder was part of the Opening Day bullpen and he was terrible to start the season — he allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings before being sent down — but, since returning, he’s allowed one unearned run on four hits and two walks in 13.2 innings. He’s struck out 16. Very good strikeout rate (29.6%), excellent walk rate (3.7%), very good contact management (.279 xwOBA). Holder’s been awesome lately. Been a real nice shot in the arm for the bullpen.

Of course, we’re talking about 13.2 innings here, and every season literally hundreds of relievers will have great 13.2-inning stretches that will trick you into thinking they’re better than they really are. Holder’s not actually this good, but in his case, there might be a tangible explanation for the improvement. He’s changed his pitch selection. I wrote about it two weeks ago. Here’s the updated pitch selection graph:

Since returning from Triple-A late last month Holder has put his cutter and his curveball — a curveball with elite spin rate, at that — in his back pocket and gone after hitters with his slider and changeup (and four-seam fastball) instead. Righties see the slider while lefties get the changeup, and, coincidentally or not, Holder has been much more effective lately. I don’t think it’s a fluke. Change your pitch selection and get better results, and I’m taking notice.

The Yankees have shown they’ll solve their “too many good players” problem by sending undeserving players to the minors. Ronald Torreyes was sent down a few days ago despite excelling in his utility infielder’s role. Dude is beloved in the clubhouse and had been on the MLB roster every day since Opening Day 2016, and he was hitting .339/.349/.435 (114 wRC+). He was sent down anyway. This business is rough, man.

We can’t completely rule out the Yankees sending Holder down to Triple-A Scranton when Warren is ready to return, though this isn’t really another Torreyes situation. Torreyes was a utility guy who, despite being productive in that role, didn’t play much. Especially lately. He started six games — six games! — in the five weeks after Gleyber Torres was called up. As unpopular as the move was in the clubhouse (according to Boone), it did make sense given the roster.

A reliever and a utility guy are very different, however. Torreyes didn’t play much. Win or lose, Holder will get a chance to pitch multiple times a week, and he’s pitching well enough that Boone may soon start to give him higher leverage innings. Torres and Miguel Andujar can play every day and keep Torreyes on the bench. Green and Betances and Robertson can’t pitch every day. There are innings to be soaked up and Holder can do it.

Warren’s return is at least a few days away, so we’ll see what the bullpen looks like when he’s ready to be activated. Someone might pitch their way off the roster — possibly even Holder! — or someone might get hurt. Who knows. The old “this will work itself” mantra hasn’t really applied this year. The Yankees legitimately have more good players than roster spots right now. That includes Holder, who is pitching well with a possible tangible explanation for his improvement. He’s done enough to stay around even after Warren returns.