River Avenue Blues

  • About
    • Privacy Policy
  • Features
    • Yankees Top 30 Prospects
    • Prospect Profiles
    • Fan Confidence
  • Resources
    • 2019 Draft Order
    • Depth Chart
    • Bullpen Workload
    • Guide to Stats
  • Shop and Tickets
    • RAB Tickets
    • MLB Shop
    • Fanatics
    • Amazon
    • Steiner Sports Memorabilia
River Ave. Blues » Josh Harrison

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

December 31, 2018 by Mike

Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Adam Ottavino, Cincinnati Reds, David Robertson, Josh Harrison, Jurickson Profar, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Sonny Gray, Texas Rangers, Zack Britton

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Monday

December 10, 2018 by Mike

The four busiest days of the offseason have arrived. Well, the three busiest days, really, because everyone heads home Thursday morning after the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 Winter Meetings begin today at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, and, as always, there will be a ton of trades, free agent signings, and rumors these next few days. Lots of rumors. Lots and lots of rumors.

The Yankees have already had a fairly active offseason. They traded for James Paxton and re-signed both Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, most notably, and they’ve also brought in some depth options like Hanser Alberto, Tim Locastro, and Parker Bridwell. The Yankees still need another starter though, plus a Didi Gregorius middle infield replacement and bullpen help. Brian Cashman’s work is far from done this offseason.

“Obviously, we have a number of things to accomplish that I consider heavy lifting. We need to fill our club out. Usually most things get concluded by the end of the Winter Meetings based on the last two years,” said Cashman to George King recently. “Things have dragged out longer, but for the most part, now momentum will kick in for everybody — players, agents and clubs. Hopefully we will be in position to improve ourselves, but part of this is having patience. We don’t want to make a mistake and rush this process. If it takes longer, it takes longer. Optimally, you would like to get something done between now and the conclusion of Vegas.”

The last time the Winter Meetings were held in Las Vegas the Yankees left town with a newly signed CC Sabathia and momentum toward a deal with A.J. Burnett and having started discussions about a deal with Mark Teixeira. I can’t say I expect the Yankees to be that active again this year — that was one of the largest free agent spending sprees in baseball history — but I do expect them to be busy this week. There’s still a lot of needs that have to be addressed.

As we do every year, we’ll keep you updated on the latest Yankees-related rumors in this one handy post throughout the day. The Winter Meetings are in the Pacific Time Zone this year, so we East Coasters may have to wait a little longer than usual each morning for everyone in Las Vegas to wake up and start cranking out rumors. Anyway, make sure you check back through the day for updates. Here’s the latest (all timestamps Eastern Time):

  • 5:59pm: The Yankees scouted Yusei Kikuchi “extensively” this past season and Brian Cashman said he’s been in touch with agent Scott Boras about the left-hander. Here’s everything you need to know about Kikuchi. His 30-day negotiating period closes Thursday, January 3rd. [Joel Sherman]
  • 5:54pm: Brian Cashman more or less shot down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. “The Harper stuff, I’m surprised you are still asking,” he said. Cashman did admit he’s “had several conversations” with Manny Machado‘s agent, though not in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings. [Bryan Hoch, Joel Sherman]
  • 4:35pm: The Yankees have considered Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed as they look for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They’ve had interest in him before. Ahmed is a fantastic defender and he discovered some power this year, but he’s still a below-average hitter. The D’Backs aren’t expected to part with Ahmed for anything less than a big overpay, so forget that. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 2:06pm: The Yankees are aiming high in Sonny Gray trade talks and asked the Reds about top prospect Taylor Trammell. MLB.com ranks Trammell as the 17th best prospect in baseball. Hey, you’ll never got Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. [Joel Sherman]
  • 12:38pm: Unlike Harper, Manny Machado will travel to meet with teams in their cities. That all but guarantees he will not sign during the Winter Meetings this week. I could see Machado’s and Harper’s free agencies dragging out into January. [Bob Nightengale]
  • 12:17pm: The Yankees and Padres remain in contact about Sonny Gray. San Diego doesn’t have much MLB talent to offer at this point — Matt Strahm would be nice, though I’d bet against it — so, if a trade does happen, it figures to be Gray for prospects. [Jon Morosi]
  • 11:52am: “Industry buzz” says the Yankees want to limit a potential J.A. Happ contract to two years. He’s shopping around for a three-year deal this offseason though. Always remember to take these secondhand “industry buzz” rumors with a grain of salt. [George King]
  • 11:30am: The Yankees will meet face-to-face with Bryce Harper at some point this week. Harper lives in Las Vegas, which is convenient. We haven’t heard the Yankees connected to Harper much this offseason and I suppose it’s possible this week’s meeting is just due diligence since everyone will be in the same place at the same time. [Jeff Passan]
  • 11:30am: In addition to Harper, the Yankees will also meet with Manny Machado at some point. I’m not sure if it’ll be during the Winter Meetings or later. They will not bid $300M to get him, however. If that’s true, the Yankees almost certainly won’t get Machado then. Either he’d have to take a deep discount or his market would have to collapse for that work. [Jon Heyman]
  • 11:30am: The Yankees have interest in free agent multi-position players Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. Both would fit as a Gregorius replacement though one (Gonzalez) is much more desirable than the other (Harrison) in my opinion. [Jon Heyman]

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: 2018 Winter Meetings, Bryce Harper, J.A. Happ, Josh Harrison, Manny Machado, Marwin Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi

Hot Stove Rumors: Goldschmidt, Miller, Harrison

November 8, 2018 by Mike

Goldy. (Christian Petersen/Getty)

The GM Meetings wrapped up today and there was some hot stove action this week. The Yankees re-signed CC Sabathia and, last night, the Rays traded Mallex Smith to the Mariners for Mike Zunino. Not mad about it. Smith gave the Yankees some headaches the last two years. Anyway, here’s the latest.

Yankees not showing interest in Goldschmidt

As expected, the Diamondbacks are receiving considerable interest in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, but not from the Yankees, reports Jon Heyman. Arizona collapsed this past season — they were one game up in the NL West on the morning of September 1st and finished nine games back — and they stand to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency. They’ve hinted at tearing things down and rebuilding, and they have some possible fits for the Yankees.

Goldschmidt, 31, is the best first baseman in baseball and on the short list of the best players in the game overall. He hit .290/.389/.533 (145 wRC+) with 33 homers this past season and is a Gold Glove caliber defender. The D’Backs exercised his no-brainer $14.5M club option last week, so he’s a one-year rental. The Yankees might have two viable big league first basemen (Luke Voit and Greg Bird) or they might have none. I dunno. Either way, Goldschmidt would be a clear upgrade, but he wouldn’t come cheap, even with one year of control. For now, the Yankees aren’t showing interest.

Yankees have interest in Miller

The Yankees have interest in free agent lefty reliever Andrew Miller and have requested his medical information, reports Andy Martino. As I noted yesterday, lots of team request medical information from lots of players, especially early in the offseason. It doesn’t mean they are progressing toward a deal or anything. The team is just doing due diligence. Miller had shoulder trouble this year and has had knee problems the last two years. In fact, the Indians even sent him to see the Cleveland Cavaliers’ doctors because they have more experience with tall dudes and knee injuries.

This past season the 33-year-old Miller had a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts in 34 innings around his injuries. He was far more wild and hittable than he’d been the last few years. If you watched the postseason, you know Miller wasn’t right. He didn’t look like himself at all. For what it’s worth, Miller’s agent told Joel Sherman his client recently received a clean bill of health. That’s great, but teams are going to give him their own physical and make sure for themselves. Miller’s a great dude, but he’s entering his mid-30s and he seems to be breaking down physically. His medicals will be scrutinized.

Yankees have met with Harrison

I had a feeling this was coming. According to Heyman, the Yankees have interest in free agent utility man Josh Harrison and have already met with his representatives. I assume that happened at the GM Meetings this week. Didi Gregorius will miss the start of the season with Tommy John surgery and the Yankees need a replacement middle infielder. Harrison can play second, then, once Gregorius returns, he could shift into a utility role.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) this past season and is a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line with a career high 16 homers. His OBP was propped up by 23 (!) hit-by-pitches. Harrison was hit 23 times in 128 games last year. He was hit 31 times in the other 714 games of his career. The Yankees have been connected to Harrison a few times in recent years but never seemed to seriously pursue him. Now that he’s available for nothing but cash, the Yankees could pounce. I hope he’s Plan C or Plan D rather than Plan A or Plan B though.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Andrew Miller, Josh Harrison, Paul Goldschmidt

Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, and how the Pirates changed things for the Yankees

January 16, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Cutch & Cole. (Presswire)

To date, the Yankees have made the single biggest move in baseball this offseason, acquiring reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in what amounts to a salary dump. Starlin Castro is a decent enough player and Jorge Guzman is a very good prospect, but yeah, if you’re the Yankees (or any contending team), that’s a trade you make eight days a week and twice on Sundays.

Over the last few days the Pirates have taken over as the center of attention by trading away staff ace Gerrit Cole and face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen. Cole went to the Astros over the weekend and yesterday the Pirates sent McCutchen to the Giants for two prospects. Those trades have no direct impact on the Yankees aside from potentially facing Cole and/or McCutchen down the line.

Those trades do, however, have indirect impact on the Yankees. On every team, really. The trades change the entire offseason market to some degree, and that will affect the still open to doing stuff Yankees. Each of the three branches to these trades — the Pirates branch, the Giants branch, and the Astros branch — means something different to the Yankees.

The Pirates are open for business

There’s no doubt about it now. Cole is gone, McCutchen is gone, and I have to think it’s only a matter of time until Josh Harrison is gone as well. Others like David Freese, Felipe Rivero, Daniel Hudson, and Ivan Nova could be on the chopping block too. If you’re going to trade Cole and McCutchen, you might as well listen to offers for everyone else on your roster. It only makes sense.

Even with Cole in Houston, the Pirates still have some players who could help the Yankees, namely Harrison (here’s our Scouting The Market post) and Freese (Scouting The Market). Picking up Rivero would be fun too, but the Yankees aren’t desperate for bullpen help, and I don’t see them moving significant prospects for a reliever, even one as good as Rivero. Harrison, who the Yankees have been connected to for weeks, and Freese are more likely targets.

The Pirates are clearly open for business and willing to trade, and, best of all, they didn’t knock it out of the park with either the Cole or McCutchen trade. Both deals are more quantity over quality. This is nothing new either. Pirates GM Neal Huntington has been trading his best players for eyebrow-raising packages since the days of Nate McLouth and Jason Bay. The Yankees might be able to get Harrison and/or Freese at a price that won’t hurt at all.

The Giants still need an outfielder (and more)

Cutch thinking about San Francisco real estate. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

A few weeks ago in a mailbag I noted the Giants had the worst projected outfield in baseball for 2018. McCutchen is no longer the MVP caliber producer he was in his prime, but he’ll be a massive upgrade over guys like Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson, and Jarrett Parker. Between McCutchen and Evan Longoria, the Giants made huge upgrades at two major problem positions.

And yet, because their outfield was so bad, the Giants still need another outfielder after acquiring McCutchen. Alex Pavlovic notes San Francisco was planning to play McCutchen in a corner — where he fits best at this point of his career — and add a quality defensive center fielder. (Their outfield defense was sooo bad last year.) Signing Lorenzo Cain would be the sexy move. Signing Jarrod Dyson would be the practical move.

The Yankees have outfielders to spare, so if the Giants are still in the market for another outfielder, it’s possible the two could get together for a trade. Jacoby Ellsbury would be ideal. The Giants reportedly don’t have much more money to spend and they definitely don’t have many top prospects to trade, so take on a few million in salary and give up a non-prospect and boom, they’ll have a quality defensive center fielder in Ellsbury. Easy enough.

Of course, trading Ellsbury remains a long shot, both to the Giants or anywhere else. What about Brett Gardner though? If the Giants are more willing to take on money than reported, they could be a destination for Gardner as the Yankees try to free up payroll space to sign Yu Darvish. Or what about Aaron Hicks or Clint Frazier? I have no idea what the Giants could send the Yankees in return, but hey, if they need an outfielder, Hicks or Frazier could be targets.

Furthermore, the Giants have made it clear they are looking to improve and get back to contention this coming season — that might not be possible after going 64-98 in 2017, but they’re trying — so they figure to look for upgrades in areas other than the outfield. What about the bullpen? If the Yankees need to clear money for Darvish or whoever, Adam Warren or Dellin Betances (or David Robertson) could be of interest to the Giants.

I’ll admit to this being a stretch. With the Pirates, the fact they’re open for business is plainly obvious, as are the potential Harrison and/or Freese fits. With the Giants, we’re more or less hoping they still want an outfielder (or reliever), and the two clubs can find a way to match up for a trade. Looks tough on paper. Possible? Sure. But difficult. I just think the more active San Francisco is, the more likely it is they could strike a deal with the Yankees, even if it is a long shot.

The Astros are the team to beat

Did anyone out there truly believe otherwise prior to the Cole trade? I hope not. The Astros are the defending World Series champs, they lost no one of consequence to free agency this offseason, and their core is (mostly) young and under control long-term. They’re the team to beat. Their roster says they are and they’ve earned every right to be considered the AL favorites going into the 2018.

Now the Astros have added Cole, a potential frontline starter, to a roster that was already good enough to have a legitimate shot at repeating in 2018. The Yankees are better today than they were in the ALCS because adding Stanton more than offsets the losses of Castro and Chase Headley (and Todd Frazier), but they’re still looking up at the Astros. Want to win the 2018 World Series? You’re probably going to have to go through Houston.

These days Brian Cashman & Co. are pretty good at not making knee-jerk, reactionary type moves. The Astros getting Cole won’t coax the Yankees into blowing up the luxury tax plan and signing Darvish. It is a reminder that the Yankees are not the best team in the league, at least not on paper, and that the teams they’re chasing are getting better. There is always room for improvement. The defending champs just reminded the Yankees and everyone else of that with the Cole trade.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: David Freese, Houston Astros, Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants

Scouting the Trade Market: Josh Harrison

January 3, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Justin Berl/Getty)

As things stand, the Yankees have unsettled second and third base positions. They could go with Ronald Torreyes and a prospect like Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, or they could go outside the organization for a free agent or trade target. There is an argument to be made for either approach.

In recent weeks the Yankees have been connected, albeit loosely, to Pirates infielder Josh Harrison. He has mostly been mentioned as a secondary piece in a potential Gerrit Cole trade. Both Jon Heyman and Rob Biertempfel have loosely connected Harrison to New York recently, which is about as far as these rumors go. Does the 30-year-old make sense for the infield needy Yankees? Let’s take a look.

Offensive Performance

The 2017 season was Harrison’s fourth full season as a big leaguer, and his performance has been up and down over the years. More like up, then down, then up again. Here are the core numbers:

AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR SB K% BB% wRC+ vs. RHP wRC+ vs. LHP
2014 .315/.347/.490 137 13 18 14.7% 4.0% 136 142
2015 .287/.327/.390 98 4 10 15.8% 4.2% 94 112
2016 .283/.311/.388 86 4 19 14.6% 3.4% 79 116
2017 .272/.339/.432 104 16 12 16.6% 5.2% 97 125

Not much power, not a ton of stolen bases, very few walks. Harrison’s 16 homers last season were a career high, though the ball is juiced, so who knows whether that power production is here to stay. What happens if the ball gets un-juiced next year?

Harrison’s offensive game is built around being aggressive, putting the ball in play, and hoping for the best. His stolen base total isn’t great — he’s 59-for-82 (72%) in steal attempts the last four years, so he’s not super efficient either — but Harrison has consistently ranked as an above-average baserunner thanks to his aggressiveness, and his ability to do things like go first-to-third on a single and advance on a wild pitch.

Also, it should be noted Harrison’s baserunning skill set includes a fun and freakishly consistent ability to avoid tags and escape rundowns with creative slides. Check it out:

How much are those creative slides worth? It’s hard to say. On one hand, avoiding the tag is an obvious plus. On the other, is Harrison overly aggressive, thus putting himself in situations where creative slides are necessary because he made a baserunning mistake? Given his overall baserunning numbers, I suspect Harrison is just the right amount of aggressive with the creative slide ability thrown in for good measure.

Harrison’s offensive output from 2015-16 was below average overall, and he rebounded at the plate this past season for two reasons. One, the home run spike around baseball. I joke about the juiced ball, but in all seriousness, balls flew out of the park for whatever reason last year, and Harrison benefited like so many others. His ground ball rate and pull rate were in line with his career norms, yet his homers per fly ball rate did this:

And two, Harrison was hit by 23 pitches — 23 hit-by-pitches! — in 2017. Twenty-three hit-by-pitches in 542 plate appearances in 2017 after being hit by 26 pitches in 2,096 plate appearances from 2011-16. Hmmm. Stephen Nesbitt spoke to Harrison about the extreme uptick in hit-by-pitches back in June:

“I’m not so much shaking my head. I’m over it,” Harrison said. “I know it’s part of the game; they’ve got to come inside. But, hey, don’t come inside to miss and make that miss a hit.”

Harrison’s stride carries him toward the plate, he admits. Always has. But he doesn’t stand on top of the plate the way the Chicago Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo does. Best Harrison can tell, he struggled to hit the low-and-inside pitch last season because of an injured thumb. Once he started getting around on that particular pitch, pitchers adjusted by going even further inside.

Harrison doesn’t walk much. That has been made clear throughout his career. Banking on a player continuing to get hit by pitches at an extraordinary rate when he has no history of doing it — there is some skill to getting hit by a pitch as guys like Rizzo, Chase Utley, and Don Baylor have shown — to post a good but not great .339 OBP is quite risky.

With Harrison, I think you have to go into next season expecting his OBP to come down because last season’s hit-by-pitch issue was completely out of character. His power numbers did tick up, otherwise everything else stayed to same. So, long story short, Harrison is basically an average-ish hitter who could be above average if the ball stays juiced and he keeps getting plunked, but could quickly become below average if those skills go away.

Defensive Performance

Over the last two seasons the Pirates have used Harrison primarily at second base, but he’s also spent extended time at third and some time in the outfield. Here are his defensive assignments the last four years:

  • Second base: 2,062.2 innings (+18 DRS)
  • Third base: 1,386 innings (+11 DRS)
  • Shortstop: 41 innings (+0 DRS)
  • Left field: 297.1 innings (+0 DRS)
  • Right field: 265.2 innings (+3 DRS)

The versatility is nice, though I see Harrison as a second or third baseman going forward only. The outfield is an emergency only thing. I wouldn’t try to get cute and move Harrison to a different position every game, like one of those mythical supersub players everyone talks about but doesn’t really exist.

Harrison is an asset defensively at second and third, which is perfect for the Yankees, who have openings at both positions. If Andujar is ready, Harrison can play second. If Torres is ready, Harrison can play third. Perfect.

Injury History

Harrison has suffered a notable injury in the second half in each of the last three years. In 2015, he tore ligaments in his thumb on an awkward slide, and missed a month and a half. In 2016, his season ended in mid-September due to a groin strain. In 2017, his season ended in early-September with a broken bone in his hand. That was he result of his 23rd and final hit-by-pitch of the season.

The groin strain is whatever. Those happen. The torn thumb ligaments and broken hand are kinda fluky. Harrison hit the base wrong on a slide and ripped up his thumb. He got hit by a pitch and it broke his hand. Those aren’t really chronic issues, but, at the same time, when you run the bases aggressively, you run the risk of an getting hurt on an awkward slide, and when you get plunked as often as Harrison last year, you run the risk of one of those hit-by-pitches doing real damage. Those are the risks in his game.

Contract Status

(Justin Berl/Getty)

After that big 2014 season, the Pirates rewarded Harrison with a four-year contract extension worth $27.5M guaranteed. The deal includes two club options. For luxury tax purposes, Harrison counts as $6.875M in 2018, which is a good number for the Yankees under the $197M threshold. Here are his actual salaries:

  • 2018: $10M
  • 2019: $10.5M club option ($1M buyout)
  • 2020: $11.5M club option ($500,000 buyout)

The Yankees are more concerned with Harrison’s luxury tax number than his actual salary. He’s a bargain in the world of dollars-per-WAR — FanGraphs valued Harrison’s production at $20.7M in 2017 — though I’m not entirely convinced he would get $10M per season on the open market right now. Doesn’t matter though. That $6.875M luxury tax number is the key here.

What Would It Take?

The best trade benchmark I can find is Jed Lowrie, who was traded from the Astros to the Athletics two years ago, when he had three years of control remaining. That was two guaranteed years and one option year. Harrison has one guaranteed year and two option years, so if things go south quick in 2018, whichever team trades for him could walk away.

Anyway, the Lowrie trade was a straight salary dump. He had $15M left on his contract and the Astros traded him for minor league righty Brendan McCurry, who was not among the A’s top 30 prospects at the time of the trade and does not rank among the ‘Stros top 30 prospects now. The Lowrie salary dump doesn’t really help us establish an asking price for Harrison.

Two years ago the Yankees traded Adam Warren for four years and $38M worth of Starlin Castro, but again, that was more of a dump for the Cubs than a baseball trade. They’d just signed Ben Zobrist and Castro was coming off a disappointing season. I doubt the Pirates are looking to salary dump Harrison, but perhaps the Lowrie and Starlin trades indicate the trade value of an okay-ish middle infielder owed a decent chunk of change isn’t all that high?

Does He Make Sense For the Yankees?

Oh sure. Definitely. Harrison’s luxury tax number fits, he can play second and third base, he’s good defensively, he plays with a ton of energy, and he’d add a contact element to a lineup that might be a little too strikeout heavy. I’m not sold on Harrison being anything more than a league average hitter, but he still does enough on the bases and in the field to be worth a lineup spot.

Harrison hit first or second for the Pirates most of last season, but the Yankees won’t need him to do that. They can bat him in the lower third of the lineup somewhere and treat him like the complementary player he is, not ask him to do more than he’s capable of doing. I have no idea what the Pirates want in trade, but if the Lowrie and Castro trades are any indication, it won’t hurt to bring Harrison aboard as a second or third base option. I suspect the Lowrie and Castro trades do not apply here though, and Pittsburgh’s asking price will be much higher.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Josh Harrison, Scouting The Market

Reports: Yankees, Pirates inching closer to Gerrit Cole trade

December 22, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Joe Sargent/Getty)
(Joe Sargent/Getty)

Friday (10:33am ET): Momentum toward a trade may have been overstated last night, report Heyman and Feinsand. The two sides are talking, but nothing is imminent.

Thursday (11:43pm ET): According to multiple reports, the Yankees and Pirates are inching closer to a Gerrit Cole trade. It does not appear a trade is imminent, but earlier Thursday we heard talks had cooled, and apparently now they’ve fired back up. The Yankees have been connected to Cole, their 2008 first round pick, since the Winter Meetings last week.

Here’s what we know about the renewed Cole trade talks:

  • The Pirates are “highly motivated” to trade Cole and he could be dealt within the next week, either to the Yankees or somewhere else. Hmmm. [Jeff Passan]
  • The Yankees want to build a trade around Clint Frazier while the Pirates continue to push for Gleyber Torres. I’d be very surprised if the Yankees trade Gleyber. [Jon Heyman, Mark Feinsand]
  • It’s possible the deal could be expanded to include infielder Josh Harrison. Also, in addition to Torres and Frazier, the Pirates have interest in Miguel Andujar and Chance Adams. [George King]

Cole, 27, is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2018 and 2019. He had a 4.26 ERA (4.08 FIP) with 23.1% strikeouts and 6.5% walks in 203 innings this season, making it his worst MLB season. Cole allowed 31 homers in 2017 after allowing 34 homers total from 2013-16.

I said pretty much all I had to say about Cole earlier this week. I am on board with adding another starter but I don’t love the idea of trading Frazier for Cole, who has been decidedly average the last two years. Can he be better than average? Of course! Cole can be an ace. He has that potential. But he’s gone backwards the last few years and that worries me.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Chance Adams, Clint Frazier, Gerrit Cole, Gleyber Torres, Josh Harrison, Miguel Andujar, Pittsbugh Pirates

RAB Thoughts on Patreon

Mike is running weekly thoughts-style posts at our "RAB Thoughts" Patreon. $3 per month gets you weekly Yankees analysis. Become a Patron!

Got A Question For The Mailbag?

Email us at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. The mailbag is posted Friday mornings.

RAB Features

  • 2019 Season Preview series
  • 2019 Top 30 Prospects
  • 'What If' series with OOTP
  • Yankees depth chart

Search RAB

Copyright © 2023 · River Avenue Blues