Oliver Perez Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Middle Relievers

December 14, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Winter Meetings came and went, and so, too, did a few of the potential bullpen options. The Yankees are still on the hunt for a couple of relievers to replace the free agent duo of Zach Britton and David Robertson – both of whom are still available as of this writing, and both of whom were written about in our season reviews – and, as per Brian Cashman himself, it remains a priority. I’ve already written about Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia (who later signed with the Mets for 3-years, $30 MM), Cody Allen, Greg Holland, and Ryan Madson. With the Yankees potential budget restrictions being what they are (or might be), I’ll pivot to some middle relief options to bolster the … well … middle innings.

Brad Brach

2018 Stats – 62.2 IP, 20.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 46.0 GB%, 3.59 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Yankees fans are familiar with Brach, who pitched for the Orioles from 2014 through this past trade deadline, and has faced the good guys 25 times in his career. He wasn’t terribly effective, though, pitching to a 5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP – but I digress. Brach has been a rock-solid reliever for seven years now, pitching to a 3.05 ERA (133 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 449 IP since coming to the majors for good in 2012; and that includes a 2.99 ERA (140 ERA+) in 327.2 IP in the AL East. And that’s something that we’ve seen the Yankees value in the past, notably with the aforementioned Happ.

It is worth exploring why Brach pitched so poorly with the Orioles last year, though. His overall numbers were good, but they don’t tell the whole story. Consider his pre- and post-trade numbers:

Orioles – 39.0 IP, 20.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 4.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP
Braves – 23.2 IP, 21.2 K%, 8.7 BB%, 45.1 GB%, 1.52 ERA, 3.12 FIP

What the heck happened? The easiest explanation is that the Orioles are awful, and everyone on the team felt it. Their porous defense led to a .371 BABIP when Brach was on the mound (his career BABIP is .284), and his batted-ball profile doesn’t suggest that he was giving up better contact than before. His hard-hit percentage was up a bit – but his soft-hit percentage was, too. His HR/9 (0.92) and HR/FB (10.0%) were in-line with career norms, as well. So what about his velocity?

Brach’s fastball did tick down this year, particularly in the first half. It returned to normal after the trade, though, which may suggest any number of things. A hidden injury? A slump? The malaise of being an Oriole? Who knows. But he returned to form with Atlanta, much as Britton did with the Yankees. I don’t want to discount the potential of a slip in velocity going forward, though, as Brach will be 33 shortly after opening day. But I think he’s in-line for a bounceback.

MLBTR forecasts a 2-year, $12 MM deal for Brach, and that seems reasonable to me. He has some closer experience, filling in for Britton in 2017 and part of 2018, but he’s largely been a middle reliever or set-up man otherwise, and I suspect that’s how teams view him. And, at that cost, I think he makes quite a bit of sense for the Yankees.

Oliver Perez

2018 Stats – 32.1 IP, 35.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 41.2 GB%, 1.39 ERA, 1.74 FIP

Let’s get a few things out of the way first: Perez is a 37-year-old journeyman that had to wait until June to find a team because he was ineffective at best in 2016 and 2017, and his best role is as a lefty specialist. And, yes, 2018 was far and away his best season.

Now, that being said: Perez was an excellent specialist last year. He held lefties to a .191/.214/.274 slash line, which is actually a tick better than he was prior to his two-years of struggle (lefties hit .185/.235/.283 against him in 2015, for example). And he was solid against lefties in those interim years, too; the greatest issue was that he faced a fair amount of righties, and they have murdered him over the last several years. He’s a specialist, through and through.

So is there anything that supports this being for real? Yes, actually: his pitch selection.

Perez all but eliminated his sinker (his worst pitch by a considerable margin in 2016 and 2017) in favor of more four-seamers and more sliders, and it paid dividends. Perhaps due to his focusing on two pitches instead of three, the spin rates on his four-seamer (from 2099 RPM to 2156) and slider (2110 to 2308) increased markedly, and both were more difficult for hitters to square-up as a result. The combination of pitch selection and those pitches having more movement suggests that this wasn’t just luck; and it may even portend a reason to expect something closer to vintage Perez in 2019.

There aren’t really any contract predictions out there for Perez, and I suspect that his market won’t be terribly hot anytime soon. But if the Yankees do turn to a specialist, that lack of interest could result in a bargain.

Sergio Romo

2018 Stats – 67.1 IP, 26.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB%, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP

Romo has long been a standard-bearer for the slider, with the offering representing better than half of all of his pitches in seven of his last eight seasons. And that actually undersells his reliance on the pitch to a degree – just take a look:

The fact that batters have hit just .173 against Romo’s slider over his eleven year career is astounding, to say the least. And, despite the .240 batting average against it in 2018, it was largely more of the same – until batters teed off on it to the tune of a .375 average in his horrific September. And September really skewed everything:

Pre-September – 58.1 IP, 27.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 39.9 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.30 FIP
September – 9.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 19.4 GB%, 10.00 ERA, 8.83 FIP

Ouch. Romo’s effectiveness dropped off across the board, and it seemed as though every batted ball was hit in the air; and the result of that was five home runs allowed in those nine innings. He had his ups and downs throughout the season, but he has never been as bad as he was in September.

Romo’s anti-fastball approach and year and a half of (mostly) very good performance in the AL East makes him appealing to some extent; and the fact that his market isn’t projected to be all that large helps, too. However, he’ll be 36 in March, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. And, even with his great slider, it’s hard for me to see a RHP succeeding in Yankee Stadium with a fastball that sits between 87 and 88 MPH, as his has for the last three years.

As a result of this, I wouldn’t say that Romo’s a straight-up no for me – but his name value and upside doesn’t quite jibe with the reality of the Yankees situation.

Tony Sipp

2018 Stats – 38.2 IP, 27.8 K%, 8.6 BB%, 41.5 GB%, 1.86 ERA, 2.41 FIP

In terms of their story arcs over the last few years, Sipp and Perez are quite similar. Sipp never struggled to find a job due to his contract with the Astros, but he bounced back from abysmal 2016 and 2017 seasons to be as dominant as ever (if not more so) in his role in 2018.

From 2011 through 2015, Sipp held lefties to a .210/.283/.369 slash line; in 2018, it was .188/.263/.294. In between, lefties hit .264/.335/.540. And, on the off-chance that this needs to be said, that’s simply unacceptable.

So what can we offer in the way of an explanation? A reappearance/rediscovery of velocity may’ve helped:

Sipp’s velocity was dipped noticeably in 2016 and 2017, and regained nearly a full MPH last season. Moreover, he had largely shelved his four-seamer in 2016 and 2017 (roughly 35.7% of his offerings), before going back to it (53.3%) in 2018. It’s worth noting that his fastball has been a plus offering (by FanGraphs’s run values) throughout his career, but was deep into the red in 2016 and 2017. The spin rate remained steady, per Statcast, so maybe it did just come down to velocity.

Regardless, Sipp is another reliever that doesn’t figure to be in big-time demand. If the Yankees want a lefty specialist, Sipp fits the bill. I do think I’d prefer Perez, though, if only because his pitches – in terms of velocity and spin – jump off the page more.

Joakim Soria

2018 Stats – 60.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 35.7 GB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.44 FIP

Soria is a name that is brought up around every Rule 5 Draft, as one of the biggest success stories from what has largely been an uneventful process. The Royals snagged him from the Padres organization way back in 2006, and he has gone on to rack-up 634.1 innings of 2.88 ERA (148 ERA+) with 220 saves and great peripherals over an eleven year career.

That was a long time ago, though, and Soria is entering his age-35 season. So what sort of pitcher is he now? As you can see from the numbers above, Soria was excellent last year; both his strikeout and walk rates were better than his career norms, and comfortably better than league-average.

And that’s largely who Soria has been over the last several years. 2016 was his worst year, when he posted a 4.05 ERA (4.36 FIP) for the Royals – but he bounced back nicely in 2017 (3.70 ERA and 2.23 FIP), and was even better last year. The key for him is changing arm slots and speeds and keeping batters off-balance, and it has worked far more often than not. And despite his age and mileage, his velocity has remained steady:

It’s kind of beautiful, isn’t it?

Soria’s also the rare reliever that mixes in more than two pitches. He was a fastball-heavy guy in 2018 (66.4%), but he threw his change-up, slider, and curve right around 10% of the time apiece. It’s enough to keep hitters guessing and, along with his arm slots, that’s probably why each pitch had at least a 25% whiff per swing rate.

MLBTR projects a 2-year, $18 MM deal for Soria, and I can definitely see that happening. In fact, I could see him doing a bit better now that I’ve dug into his numbers a bit more. And at 2-years, $18 MM, I’d be pleased to see him in pinstripes. He’s still a stud.

DotF: McKinney goes deep again in Scranton’s win

June 1, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 High-A Florida State League All-Star Game will be played at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this year, and on Friday the rosters were announced (North, South). Seven Yankees made it: IF Diego Castillo, C Francisco Diaz, RHP Nick Green, RHP Mike King, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP David Sosebee, and RHP Trevor Stephan. King and Stephan were recently promoted to Double-A, so they’ll be replaced on the roster. The All-Star Game is Saturday, June 16th. You can get tickets here. Some more notes:

So long, Oliver Perez. His minor league contract automatically included a June 1st opt-out given his service time, and he used it. The Yankees could’ve added Perez to the MLB roster and kept him, but nope. He was let go today. The 36-year-old southpaw had a 2.57 ERA (3.00 FIP) with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 14 innings with Triple-A Scranton.
Baseball America (subs. req’d) posted their monthly top 100 prospect list update today. IF Gleyber Torres (No. 3), LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 26), OF Estevan Florial (No. 48), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 71) all made it. RHP Chance Adams (No. 78 last month) dropped out. Gotta say, updating a top 100 prospects list every month seems like overkill.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (4-0 win over Indianapolis)

SS Tyler Wade: 1-5, 2 K
CF Clint Frazier: 1-4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K — 12-for-30 (.400) with four doubles, a triple, and a homer in his last seven games
3B Brandon Drury: 2-4, 1 R, 1 BB — Triple-A on-base streak is up to 24 games
1B Mike Ford: 2-4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
C Kyle Higashioka: 2-4, 1 RBI, 1 K
RF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K — three homers in the last four games now
2B Ronald Torreyes: 0-3, 1 BB — 3-for-18 (.167) in four games since being sent down
LF Mark Payton: 0-1, 3 BB — first game of the season after hurting his knee at the end of Spring Training and needing surgery (given the recovery timetable, meniscus?)
RHP Chance Adams: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 3/5 GB/FB — 62 of 93 pitches were strikes (67%) … first start without a walk since May 19th of last season (29 starts ago) … lots of ups and downs so far this season, this one’s an up
RHP Cody Carroll: 2 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 15 of 24 pitches were strikes (63%) … 33/10 K/BB in 25.2 innings

[Read more…]

Yankees sign Oliver Perez to minor league deal

March 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

3:20pm ET: Marc Carig says Perez will earn a little more than $1M at the big league level. He adds Gio Gallegos has a groin injury and will begin the season on the disabled list, which is part of the reason the Yankees signed Perez.

12:07pm: The Yankees have signed veteran left-hander Oliver Perez to a minor league contract, according to Team Mexico Baseball on Twitter. Perez has played for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and other international events throughout his career. He’s supposedly heading to Triple-A Scranton.

Perez, 36, was in big league camp with the Reds this spring and it did not go well. He allowed ten runs on eight hits and four walks in 6.2 innings. They released him at the end of Spring Training. Perez spent the last two years with the Nationals. He had a 4.64 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 33 relief innings last year, and held left-handed hitters to a .227/.301/.361 (.291 wOBA) batting line with a 27.4% strikeout rate.

The Yankees had veteran southpaw Wade LeBlanc in camp as a non-roster player, but released him at his request a week or so ago. He then signed a Major League deal with the Mariners. Perez essentially replaces LeBlanc as the depth lefty reliever with Triple-A Scranton. Given his service time, his contract automatically includes a June 1st opt-out. There might be an earlier opt-out as well.

Scouting The Trade Market: D’Backs’ Pitchers

July 3, 2014 by Mike 78 Comments

Despite their recent stretch of poor play (putting it nicely), the Yankees remain in the postseason hunt because every other team stinks too. The AL East is especially bad. The Yankees have lost nine of their last eleven games yet they remain 4.5 games back of the division lead with 79 games to play. They’re five games back of the second wildcard spot. Those deficits are far from insurmountable at this point of the summer, but they will need help to get back into the race and fast.

Because so many teams are within striking distance of a playoff berth, there aren’t many sellers out there this time of the year. One club that has at least acknowledged the likelihood of selling is the Diamondbacks, who come into today with the worst record in baseball at 35-41. “Based on the last couple of years of being a .500 club and this year with the injuries we have and our record, we have to look at being more open-minded of moving some contracts and some veteran players for younger players,” said GM Kevin Towers to Nick Piecoro recently.

Towers spent a year in the Yankees front office and he is reportedly very close friends with Brian Cashman, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be easier to make a trade. They’ve gotten together for eleven trades over the years and most are very minor, Bernie Castro for Kevin Reese stuff. Their most recent sweep was Juan Miranda for Scottie Allen in November 2010, their most notable swap probably D’Angelo Jimenez for Jay Witasick in June 2011. Let’s see what pitchers Arizona can offer the Yankees in the coming weeks. ~~Tomorrow~~ Next week we’ll tackle the position players.

RHP Brandon McCarthy
The 30-year-old McCarthy is a sabermetrics darling, and you really need to be open-minded to look beyond his 2-10 record and 5.11 ERA. He also owns a 7-21 record with a 4.78 ERA since signing with the D’Backs prior to last year. High school Mike Axisa would have said no way to McCarthy based on that.

Behind the record and ERA are some promising core pitching skills, however. McCarthy has a 3.81 FIP during his two years in the desert and this season it’s a 3.88 FIP with his best strikeout (7.53 K/9 and 19.7 K%) and ground ball (55.6%) rates in years. He also never walks anyone (1.56 BB/9 and 4.1 BB%). During his resurgent “hey this guy is a good pitcher now” years with the Athletics from 2011-12, McCarthy had a 3.22 FIP, a 6.26 K/9 (16.9 K%), a 1.57 BB/9 (4.2 BB%), and a 44.3% ground ball rate.

The biggest difference between Oakland McCarthy and Arizona McCarthy is the long ball — he had a 0.69 HR/9 (7.1 HR/FB%) with the A’s and has a 1.05 HR/9 (14.4 HR/FB%) with the D’Backs. A lot of that is the difference in ballparks. The O.co Coliseum is a tough place to hit homers and Chase Field is not. It’s pretty simple. McCarthy has compensated for the less friendly home park by throwing more sinking fastballs and staying away from his cutter. Here is the breakdown of his arsenal:

	Four-Seam	Sinker	Cutter	Curveball	Changeup
Avg. Velocity	95.0	94.1	92.1	82.3	88.6
% Thrown	6.8%	54.5%	10.9%	25.7%	1.4%
Whiff+	334	133	98	94	0
GB+	81	125	103	104	42

The changeup is just a show-me pitch and because McCarthy throws so few four-seam fastballs, I wouldn’t get too excited about that astronomical swing-and-miss rate. (Whiff+ and GB+ are like ERA+, but with swing-and-miss and ground ball rates for individual pitches.) The sinker is clearly his bread-and-butter and it’s an above-average pitch both in terms of getting whiffs and ground balls. Is a guy who relies so heavily on his sinker a good fit for the Yankees’ infield defense?

The biggest concern with McCarthy, by far, is his injury history. He has stayed healthy this season but has otherwise visited the disabled list with a shoulder problem at least once every year from 2007-13. Only once since 2006 has McCarthy thrown more 135 innings in a season (180.2 in in 2011) and this year he is already at 104 innings. Maybe he’ll stay healthy, but, given his history, you have to think a disabled list stint is coming at some point.

McCarthy is owed approximately $5.1M through the end of the season and will become a free agent this winter, so he’s a pure rental. The fact that he limits walks, keeps the ball on the ground, and is familiar with pitching in a hitter’s park are pluses. The below league average strikeout rate (remember, he’s facing pitchers too) and scary injury history are negatives. McCarthy is an upgrade over Vidal Nuno (and Chase Whitley) and would probably come cheaper than Jason Hammel, another mid-rotation guy with injury issues.

LHP Wade Miley
Unlike McCarthy, Miley would not be a rental pickup. The 27-year-old is in his third pre-arbitration year and will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2017. Usually rebuilding clubs don’t trade a guy like that, but Buster Olney (subs. req’d) recently mentioned many teams are looking to land Doug Fister types — unheralded but effective pitchers with years of control remaining. (The Tigers stole Fister from the Mariners when he was in his second pre-arbitration year.) Miley may fit that bill.

Through 18 starts and 113.1 innings this season, Miley has a 4.61 ERA (4.13 FIP). He posted a 3.33 ERA (3.15 FIP) during his first full season in 2012 and followed it up with a 3.55 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 2013, so he is trending in the wrong direction. Miley’s strikeout rate (8.42 K/9 and 22.5 K%) is a career best and both his walk (2.70 BB/9 and 7.2 BB%) and ground ball rates (48.0%) are right at his career norms, so the problem has been the homerun. He went from 0.65 HR/9 (6.9 HR/FB%) in 2012 to 0.93 HR/9 (12.5 HR/FB%) in 2013 to 1.35 HR/9 (16.8 HR/FB%) this year. When he misses his spot, it tends to get hit a long way.

Miley has been very durable throughout his career, throwing 190+ innings in each of the last two seasons and at least 150 innings every year since 2010, when he was just a kid in A-ball. He has all but shelved his curveball this year — it was his top secondary pitch during his excellent rookie campaign two years ago — and is now more of a slider guy. Here is his pitch breakdown:

	Four-Seam	Sinker	Curveball	Slider	Changeup
Avg. Velocity	91.3	90.9	77.4	84.6	82.6
% Thrown	31.7%	31.9%	1.1%	24.5%	10.6%
Whiff+	64	150	50	123	119
GB+	111	107	103	132	63

The curveball is a non-factor but otherwise Miley uses two fastballs interchangeably and has a well-above-average slider in terms of getting both swings and misses and ground balls. That pitch is why he’s in the big leagues and why left-handed batters have mustered only a 2.88 wOBA against him in his career. Like Fister, there’s nothing flashy about Miley’s pitch mix, no huge fastball or anything like that, but he has four distinct pitches and can make the ball move. Add in his durability and left-handedness and you’ve got a guy who figures to spend a very long time in the league.

The original Fister trade is not the perfect deal to reference because he had one extra year of team control, but it can give us something of an idea of what it would take to land Miley. The Tigers sent four players to Seattle for Fister (and replacement level reliever David Pauley):

Third baseman Francisco Martinez, who was in Double-A at the time and considered the fourth best prospect in Detroit’s system by Baseball America.
Left-hander Charlie Furbush, who had made his MLB debut earlier that season and been ranked as the team’s 26th best prospect in Baseball America.
Right-hander Chance Ruffin, who was Detroit’s supplemental first round pick the previous year. He actually zoomed to the big leagues and made his debut with the Tigers right before the trade.
Platoon outfielder Casper Wells, who had about a year in MLB at the time.

In hindsight, the Tigers gave up very little. Furbush has settled in as quality left-handed reliever but Martinez, Wells, and Ruffin all flamed out. At the time though? Wowza. Detroit traded one of their top prospects, their supplemental first round pick from the year before, plus two cheap and potentially useful MLB pieces. Imagine if the Yankees were to trade, say, Greg Bird, Ian Clarkin, Jose Ramirez, and Zoilo Almonte for someone like Miley. Fans would probably riot. That’s not an unreasonable package though.

Miley’s increasing propensity to give up the long ball is a definite concern, but there is plenty to like here. He’s young, he’s under team control for three more years, he’s never been hurt, he’s left-handed, and he has a true starter’s repertoire. Miley is essentially a finished product — yes, I know every player is always looking to improve, but it’s not like they have to teach him a changeup or something — the Yankees could just plug into the rotation and let him go. Even if you think the Yankees have no business being buyers at the deadline, this is someone they should consider acquiring anyway because he’ll also be able to help in the coming years.

Miscellaneous Relievers
Every team can use another reliever, including the Yankees. They’ve had to ride Dellin Betances and Adam Warren pretty hard in recent weeks, partly because Shawn Kelley has been shaky as hell since coming off the disabled list. Closer Addison Reed (4.15 ERA And 4.57 FIP) has been amazingly homer prone (2.08 HR/9 and 18.2 HR/FB%), which is not exactly a good quality for a late-inning reliever. Brad Ziegler (2.34 ERA and 3.52 FIP) is a sinker and ground ball machine (67.2%) who needs a good infield defense to be not awful. Both Oliver Perez (.302 wOBA) and Joe Thatcher (.285 wOBA) are serviceable matchup lefties.

Ziegler ($5M) and Perez ($2.5M) are both already under contract for next season while Reed is in his final pre-arbitration year. His arbitration raises figure to be significant because he’ll finish the year with 100+ career saves, significant enough that he might be a non-tender candidate as soon as this winter. Thatcher will be a free agent after the season. Meh. Not really much to see here.

* * *

The rest of Arizona’s pitching staff is pretty unappealing. Bronson Arroyo is currently on the disabled list with an elbow injury and others like Josh Collmenter, Mike Bolsinger, and Chase Anderson barely move the needle. Trevor Cahill was so bad that he’s currently pitching (not particularly well, either) in the minors. If the D’Backs had more good pitchers, they’d be winning more games.

I think McCarthy is a lock to be traded before the deadline for pretty obvious reasons. He makes good money and he’ll be a free agent after the season. That’s exactly the type of player a bad team moves at the deadline. Miley is a different situation though — the D’Backs won’t have any trouble holding onto him if they don’t get an offer they like. The Yankees or any other team would have to pry him loose. Both he and McCarthy make some sense for New York if they’re serious about adding help before the deadline and making a run at a postseason berth.

Mailbag: Jeter, Perez, Minor League Parks, NTCs

February 7, 2014 by Mike 76 Comments

Got five questions this week, basically half of the last few mailbags. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything and everything.

Jamie asks: Rather than the six-man rotation idea that always gets floated but never implemented, would the Yankees be best served limiting CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda’s workloads to 6-7 IP per start max and giving them a middle relief caddy like David Phelps?

Yes, I think so. Sabathia and Kuroda have averaged 6.93 and 6.48 innings per start with the Yankees, respectively, which is rather high. The Yankees have talked about reducing the workload on both guys recently and the easiest way to do that might be to treat them as six inning starters rather than seven inning starters. Phelps and Adam Warren would be obvious caddy candidates since they could throw two or three innings at a time out of the bullpen as middle/setup relievers rather than true long men. Sorta like mini-1996 Mariano Riveras. They could be kept on a somewhat regular schedule to make life a little easier as well.

The caddy system sounds great in theory but it would be tough to pull off if the other five relievers are regular one-inning guys. The Yankees would also need another veteran starter so they could stash Phelps and Warren in the bullpen full-time, and it doesn’t seem like they’re eager to add one. I really like the idea of having middle relievers who are used for multiple innings at a time, but no one ever does it though. The 2009 version of Al Aceves is a rarity these days.

Bill asks: Why has there been so little speculation about moving Derek Jeter to third base? It seems like the perfect answer to the third base problem and gets Ryan to short stop where his defensive skills would shine.

The snarky answer is that Jeter is Jeter and he’ll play shortstop for the Yankees until he says he doesn’t want to do it anymore, but I do think there are legitimate reasons for not making the move right now. He is coming back from some rather serious leg injuries and just starting taking ground balls on the dirt this week, so he is not particularly close to being in game shape right now. Jeter has never played a position other than shortstop in 22 professional seasons and third base would be an entirely new experience because the ball gets on you so quick at the hot corner. There would be a learning curve, perhaps a steep one, and asking him to change positions as he works his way back from major leg injuries might be too much for a 39-year-old. If he was perfectly healthy and able to start working out at third early in the offseason, it would make sense. Asking Jeter to go through a crash course at a different position following those injuries probably isn’t realistic.

Pedro asks: What do you think about Oliver Perez?

Time for the Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B game. Everyone loves this, right? Good. Here we go:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/FB	RHB wOBA	LHB wOBA
Pitcher A	53.0	3.74	3.26	32.3%	11.4%	30.6%	9.8%	0.335	0.304
Pitcher B	53.1	4.39	3.63	31.3%	10.1%	33.1%	13.1%	0.308	0.329

You’re smart, you know one of those guys is Perez. He’s Pitcher A. But what about Pitcher B? He is Perez’s former Mariners teammate and current Yankees setup man Shawn Kelley. Perez and Kelley had almost identical seasons in 2013 — kinda freaky, no? — with the only differences being handedness and ballpark-effected homerun rates (which is why Kelley had a higher ERA and FIP). Could the Yankees use a left-handed version of Kelley? Sure. It wouldn’t hurt given the current state of the bullpen. I don’t know what an appropriate contract would be though. Scott Downs got a one-year deal worth $4M and I’m not sure I’d go any higher than that for Perez.

Mark asks: Do you have an overlay of the new Stadium on top of the old Stadium to see the subtle differences? Also, I know the minor league stadium in Tampa has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, but do the AA and AAA ballparks have them too? Wouldn’t it just make sense?

I thought I would be able to create the overlay at Hit Tracker, but they only have the new Yankee Stadium. Here’s an overlay I found on something called The Illuminatus Observor via Google Images:

As you know, the biggest difference is in straight-away right field, where the new wall is as much as nine feet closer than the old one at some points. George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa has the same dimensions as the old Stadium, not the new one. It hasn’t been modified since the new park went up. The various minor league affiliate ballparks all have their own unique dimensions:

Level	Ballpark	LF	L-CF	CF	R-CF	RF
Triple-A	PNC Field	330	371	408	371	330
Double-A	Arm & Hammer Park	330	?	407	?	330
High-A	George M. Steinbrenner Field	318	399	408	385	314
Low-A	Joseph P. Riley Jr. Park	305	356	398	366	337
Short Season	Richmond County Bank Ballpark	320	?	390	?	318

I wrote about the four full season ballparks back in June 2011. They’re all slight pitcher’s parks overall except for GMS Field in Tampa, which is neutral compared to the rest of the Florida State League. All of those parks suppress homeruns though, extremely so in some cases. Arm & Hammer Park is right on the Delaware River and the wind makes it very tough to hit the ball out of the park to right field.

The Yankees don’t actually own any of the minor league parks — they operate GMS Field but it is owned by the Tampa Sports Authority — so modifying the dimensions to match the new Yankee Stadium isn’t a simple *snaps fingers* “okay let’s do this” thing. The Triple-A, Double-A, and Low-A ballparks were all built long before those franchises became affiliated with the Yankees. It would be neat if every minor league park matched the big league park’s dimensions, but it’s not realistic or even essential as far as I’m concerned.

David asks: Which Yankees have no-trade clauses in their deal? Am I right that it’s more than any other team? How big a problem do you think this obviously less than ideal practice is?

Here’s the full list of Yankees with some kind of no-trade clause:

Five-and-Ten Rights: Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia, Mark Teixeira
Full No-Trade Clauses In Contracts: Carlos Beltran, Kuroda, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alfonso Soriano, Masahiro Tanaka

I haven’t seen anything about Kuroda having a no-trade clause in his current contract, but he had one in his last two deals and I assume he has one again. That’s ten 40-man roster players and nine who are expected to be on the Opening Day roster who can’t be traded without their permissions. That’s a lot. The Yankees are pretty liberal with no-trade clauses and I wonder how often that has given them an advantage in free agent talks when the offers are similar financially. Some other teams completely refuse to give out no-trade clauses.

Obviously no-trade clauses hinder flexibility and it would be awesome if no player had one, but the Yankees are in a different situation than most teams. They always try to contend and add big name players, not trade them away. How bad would things have to get for them to even consider dealing Ellsbury or Tanaka, for example? It’s not like some team is going to offer a cheap, young superstar for either of those guys, so the no-trade clause rarely comes into play anyway.

Yankees have some interest in Oliver Perez, dark sense of humor

March 21, 2011 by Mike 45 Comments

Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees have some interest in Oliver Perez and have internally discussed bringing him aboard as a cheap sign. It can’t get any cheaper; whatever team signs Perez would only have to pay him the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Little brother in Flushing is on the hook for basically all of his $12M salary this year.

I always say there’s no harm in a minor league contract/league minimum big league contract, but I understand if it’s tough to see any upside here. Perez, even though he’s still just 29, is done, like done done. He’s been throwing 85 mph nothingballs in camp the last few weeks, and the last time his FIP even approached the league average was 2007. There’s very little to like here; at least Bartolo Colon is showing something this spring. Heyman says that Brian Cashman isn’t terribly enthused by Ollie, and let’s hope his superiors feel the same way.

Kevin Kernan’s Sunday humor

January 4, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 182 Comments

While we don’t often link to the New York Post around here — for good reason, I might add — every now and then, something so outlandish comes along that to pass it up would be a shame. Coming to us via BBTF, then, is Kevin Kernan’s latest on one final move the Yanks should make. That move? Sign Oliver Perez. And the rationale? To be able to move Joba Chamberlain — you guessed it — back to the bullpen. Feel free to insert a facepalm here.

Anyway, Kernan writes:

The Yankees are waiting on Andy Pettitte, but there is another lefty available at basically Pettitte dollars and that’s Oliver Perez. Signing Perez would cement the Yankees’ rotation for years to come and would give them flexibility with Joba Chamberlain.

“Putting Perez on the Yankees would be a great move,” says one top pitching evaluator. “That would be the perfect environment for him. He would be more focused there. He needs strong leadership around him, and pitching in front of a packed house, he would not be complacent.”

[snip]

Perez is represented by Scott Boras, who also represents Mark Teixeira. Cashman has a good working relationship with Boras. The GM would have to take a leap of faith with Perez, but the upside could be tremendous. In Pettitte, the Yankees will get a pitcher they hope has one good season left in his cranky left shoulder.

Opponents batted .290 last season against Pettitte, 56 points higher than they did against Perez, who allowed 66 fewer hits. Perez also had a lower ERA (4.22 to 4.54) and more strikeouts (180 to 158). Perez is 10 years younger, too, which fits Cashman’s plan of making the Yankees younger.

By signing so many quality free agents this season, it gives the Yankees a window to develop their own talent, and that is still the basis of what Cashman is trying to do. The bottom line, however, is the David Prices of the world can only be drafted when you have the top pick, something the Yankees never have. Teixeira was the fifth pick of the 2001 draft; the Yankees selected 23rd that season. And Sabathia was the 20th pick of the 1998 draft; the Yankees selected 24th that year.

I don’t even know where to begin. The idea that Oliver Perez helps “cement” any rotation is mind-boggling. This is a 27-year-old lefty who has already been on three teams and has a career WHIP in the National League of 1.43. His career BB/9 IP is 4.76. If Perez needs every game to be Game 7 of the World Series as the scout contends, then I worry for his place in any rotation.

Meanwhile, Kernan’s logic about draft picks is completely backwards as well. By signing another top-tier free agent, the Yanks would be surrendering yet another draft pick in 2009. Thus, they wouldn’t be anywhere close to a position to draft the Teixeira’s and Sabathia’s of the world. Meanwhile, losing out on Sabathia by four draft slots is hardly a crime. That year, the Yanks drafted Andy Brown in the first round (who?) and tried to take Mark Prior as a supplemental draft. The ability to pay overslot and the drive to draft smart can be just as important as a team’s position in the first round.

Additionally, a first round draft pick nets a team one whole player for development. While that player could be a huge impact player, the odds are against that happening. It’s far more important for the Yankees to keep open international scouting avenues as well.

Oliver Perez, in the end, is a mediocre pitcher masquerading as a lefty. He’ll always be in demand, and someone will always see him as a reclamation project because he throws hard. But he’s enjoyed limited success in the NL and would cost most teams more dollars and years than he is worth. Tying up a rotation spot with Oliver Perez is no way to commit to developing your own pitchers, and this is one avenue the Yanks have not seemed eager to pursue.