Yusei Kikuchi Archives - River Avenue Blues

Reports: Yusei Kikuchi agrees to four-year deal with Mariners

January 1, 2019 by Mike

11:46am ET: It’s a complicated contract. Kikuchi gets three years and $43M, reports Jeff Passan. After that, the Mariners could retain him with a four-year club option worth $66M. If they do not, Kikuchi could enter free agency or exercise a one-year player option at $13M. The deal can max out at seven years and $109M. For release fee purposes, it’s a $56M guarantee, so the Mariners owe Seibu a $10.275M release fee (I think).

9:30am ET: According to multiple reports, Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has agreed to a four-year contract with the Mariners. The Seibu Lions posted Kikuchi last month and his 30-day negotiating period was due to close at 5pm ET tomorrow. There’s no word on the money yet. My guess is the contract falls in the $60M neighborhood. We’ll see.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has ripped apart his roster this offseason, including trading James Paxton the Yankees. On the surface signing Kikuchi may not make much sense, but he is only 27, and he could be part of the team’s next contending core. Kikuchi helps advance the rebuild. How often do you get a chance to acquire a talented 27-year-old lefty? Exactly.

The Mariners have a rich history with Japanese players (Ichiro Suzuki, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kenji Johjima, etc.) and Seattle has a large Japanese community, which I’m sure appealed to Kikuchi. Also, the Mariners will open the 2019 regular season with a two-game series against the Athletics in Tokyo, so that’s cool. Kikuchi could make his first start for the team in Japan.

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted he’d spoken to Scott Boras about Kikuchi and that the Yankees scouted the southpaw “extensively” last season. I get the sense the door on Kikuchi closed (if it were ever open to start with) once the Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to round out the rotation. They probably weren’t going to spend big on another starting pitcher.

The offseason shopping list remains unchanged for the Yankees. With the rotation settled, their largest remaining needs are bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. Manny Machado is expected to pick a team soon, and, if the Yankees manage to land him, a) it would be awesome, and b) I have to think it would affect their bullpen decisions to some degree.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Tulowitzki, Miller, Kikuchi, Gray

December 17, 2018 by Mike

“You want us to add how many zeroes to our offer???” (Mike Zarrilli/Getty)

The Winter Meetings are over but the hot stove marches on. The Yankees are still looking for a middle infielder and two relievers, plus general depth. “I got a lot of lines out and we are still fishing. We are going to try to catch a very particular type of fish in very particular categories. We will bring the boat back to dock and send her out tomorrow and drop our lines again,” said Brian Cashman to George King last week. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado will visit Yankees on Wednesday

Manny Machado will visit the Yankees on Wednesday, reports George King. He’ll reportedly visit the White Sox and Phillies at some point this week as well. Machado will be the second free agent to visit the Yankees this offseason (that we know about), joining Patrick Corbin. Corbin inked a six-year deal with the Nationals a few days after touring Yankee Stadium. I don’t get the sense Machado will sign as quickly after the face-to-face meetings as Corbin, but who knows.

Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear Machado needs to explain the non-hustle thing before the Yankees would consider signing him, but seriously, what answer could Machado give that’s satisfactory? I doubt “I’m sorry, it won’t happen again,” will cut it. To me, Hal’s comments are little more than a great sound bite to placate the portion of the fan base that obsesses over this stuff. The Yankees value Machado at X and they will sign him if he agrees to X (or something less than X), not if he says the right things at the meeting Wednesday. End of story.

Yankees will “monitor” Tulowitzki’s progress

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees will “monitor” free agent infielder Troy Tulowitzki’s progress as he works his way back from dual heel surgeries. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract last week. Any team can now sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Six teams, including the Cubs, are after Tulo, report Susan Slusser and Jon Heyman.

Tulowitzki, 34, has not played since July 2017 due to a variety of injuries. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) with crummy defensive numbers in 66 games in 2017. Reports indicate Tulowitzki has recovered from his heel surgeries and is working out, and is willing to play second or third base. He’s going to hold a showcase at some point, apparently. I’m not against bringing Tulowitzki in as a low-cost flier. Does it make sense for the Yankees to guarantee him the type of playing time it’ll probably take to sign him though? Eh. Debatable.

Cashman met with Miller’s agent

Brian Cashman met with Mark Rodgers, Andrew Miller’s agent, at some point his offseason, reports Kristie Ackert. My guess is it was at the Winter Meetings last week. (Cashman met with Adam Ottavino’s agent last week.) The Yankees reviewed Miller’s medicals earlier this winter, which is a) not unusual for a free agent, and b) more than a formality given his injury problems this past season (hamstring, knee, shoulder). That they reviewed the medicals and still have interest suggests they feel good about things.

The Cardinals, Mets, and Phillies are among the teams that are said to have interest in Miller this offseason and the free agent reliever floodgates may open now that Jeurys Familia and Joe Kelly have signed. Familia got three years and $30M and Miller wouldn’t be wrong to seek a larger contract. Three years is really pushing it at this point giving the knee problems that span multiple seasons. Perhaps Miller would be open to returning to New York on a higher priced two-year deal? I guess the more relevant question is whether the Yankees are open to a higher priced short-term contract, or would they tack on that extra year to get a lower luxury tax hit? I guess we’ll find out.

Kikuchi to begin meeting with teams this week

Yusei Kikuchi traveled to Los Angeles this past weekend and will begin meeting with interested teams in the coming days, report the Kyodo News and Sports Nippon. “(I) will narrow down the choices after hearing the opinions of my agent and Japanese staff,” he said, adding he will “of course” be open to joining any of the 30 teams. Kikuchi is a Scott Boras client and it sounds like the bulk of meetings will take place at Boras’ Southern California office.

Last week Brian Cashman admitted the Yankees scouted Kikuchi “extensively” and said he’s discussed the 27-year-old southpaw with Boras. That was before the Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ, however, so it’s unclear whether the Yankees will meet with Kikuchi and make a serious attempt to sign him. It could be they’re done with their rotation and will now move on to other things. Here’s everything you need to know about Kikuchi. I’d be totally cool with pursuing him and going into next season with a six-man or modified six-man rotation until someone gets hurt, which will happen because it always happens.

Yankees still evaluating Gray’s market

In the latest Sonny Gray non-update, George King reports the Yankees are still evaluating the trade market for the right-hander. “As far as Sonny Gray, (we) continue to assess all options with him. There are various opportunities to consider, different types of deals that are being offered. We are weighing all our needs, both now and future needs and prospects and Major League pieces and what holes we can fill on the Major League roster,” said assistant GM Mike Fishman.

Last week it was reported eleven teams initially showed interest in Gray, and the Yankees have since whittled the list down to a handful of serious suitors. The asking price is said to be high — the Yankees asked the Reds for top prospect Taylor Trammell — though I imagine it’ll come down soon enough. Now that J.A. Happ has returned and the Yankees have their five starters in place, their efforts to move Gray could pick up steam. His projected $9.1M salary is a nice chunk of change the Yankees could use to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Monday

December 10, 2018 by Mike

The four busiest days of the offseason have arrived. Well, the three busiest days, really, because everyone heads home Thursday morning after the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 Winter Meetings begin today at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, and, as always, there will be a ton of trades, free agent signings, and rumors these next few days. Lots of rumors. Lots and lots of rumors.

The Yankees have already had a fairly active offseason. They traded for James Paxton and re-signed both Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, most notably, and they’ve also brought in some depth options like Hanser Alberto, Tim Locastro, and Parker Bridwell. The Yankees still need another starter though, plus a Didi Gregorius middle infield replacement and bullpen help. Brian Cashman’s work is far from done this offseason.

“Obviously, we have a number of things to accomplish that I consider heavy lifting. We need to fill our club out. Usually most things get concluded by the end of the Winter Meetings based on the last two years,” said Cashman to George King recently. “Things have dragged out longer, but for the most part, now momentum will kick in for everybody — players, agents and clubs. Hopefully we will be in position to improve ourselves, but part of this is having patience. We don’t want to make a mistake and rush this process. If it takes longer, it takes longer. Optimally, you would like to get something done between now and the conclusion of Vegas.”

The last time the Winter Meetings were held in Las Vegas the Yankees left town with a newly signed CC Sabathia and momentum toward a deal with A.J. Burnett and having started discussions about a deal with Mark Teixeira. I can’t say I expect the Yankees to be that active again this year — that was one of the largest free agent spending sprees in baseball history — but I do expect them to be busy this week. There’s still a lot of needs that have to be addressed.

As we do every year, we’ll keep you updated on the latest Yankees-related rumors in this one handy post throughout the day. The Winter Meetings are in the Pacific Time Zone this year, so we East Coasters may have to wait a little longer than usual each morning for everyone in Las Vegas to wake up and start cranking out rumors. Anyway, make sure you check back through the day for updates. Here’s the latest (all timestamps Eastern Time):

5:59pm: The Yankees scouted Yusei Kikuchi “extensively” this past season and Brian Cashman said he’s been in touch with agent Scott Boras about the left-hander. Here’s everything you need to know about Kikuchi. His 30-day negotiating period closes Thursday, January 3rd. [Joel Sherman]
5:54pm: Brian Cashman more or less shot down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. “The Harper stuff, I’m surprised you are still asking,” he said. Cashman did admit he’s “had several conversations” with Manny Machado‘s agent, though not in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings. [Bryan Hoch, Joel Sherman]
4:35pm: The Yankees have considered Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed as they look for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They’ve had interest in him before. Ahmed is a fantastic defender and he discovered some power this year, but he’s still a below-average hitter. The D’Backs aren’t expected to part with Ahmed for anything less than a big overpay, so forget that. [Brendan Kuty]
2:06pm: The Yankees are aiming high in Sonny Gray trade talks and asked the Reds about top prospect Taylor Trammell. MLB.com ranks Trammell as the 17th best prospect in baseball. Hey, you’ll never got Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. [Joel Sherman]
12:38pm: Unlike Harper, Manny Machado will travel to meet with teams in their cities. That all but guarantees he will not sign during the Winter Meetings this week. I could see Machado’s and Harper’s free agencies dragging out into January. [Bob Nightengale]
12:17pm: The Yankees and Padres remain in contact about Sonny Gray. San Diego doesn’t have much MLB talent to offer at this point — Matt Strahm would be nice, though I’d bet against it — so, if a trade does happen, it figures to be Gray for prospects. [Jon Morosi]
11:52am: “Industry buzz” says the Yankees want to limit a potential J.A. Happ contract to two years. He’s shopping around for a three-year deal this offseason though. Always remember to take these secondhand “industry buzz” rumors with a grain of salt. [George King]
11:30am: The Yankees will meet face-to-face with Bryce Harper at some point this week. Harper lives in Las Vegas, which is convenient. We haven’t heard the Yankees connected to Harper much this offseason and I suppose it’s possible this week’s meeting is just due diligence since everyone will be in the same place at the same time. [Jeff Passan]
11:30am: In addition to Harper, the Yankees will also meet with Manny Machado at some point. I’m not sure if it’ll be during the Winter Meetings or later. They will not bid $300M to get him, however. If that’s true, the Yankees almost certainly won’t get Machado then. Either he’d have to take a deep discount or his market would have to collapse for that work. [Jon Heyman]
11:30am: The Yankees have interest in free agent multi-position players Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison. Both would fit as a Gregorius replacement though one (Gonzalez) is much more desirable than the other (Harrison) in my opinion. [Jon Heyman]

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Yusei Kikuchi

November 26, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees came into the offseason needing three starting pitchers. They’ve since added two: James Paxton and CC Sabathia. Paxton and Sabathia join incumbents Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Well, Sabathia is an incumbent himself. You know what I mean. Point is, the Yankees needed three starters, they’ve added two, and that means they still need one more.

“Once we had CC in the fold we felt we had to at least get two more guys back into this as imports, and so obviously Paxton now is one of those,” said Cashman during a recent radio interview. “We’ll continue our focus on the rotation, whether that’s a free agent or trade … I don’t know how much longer it’s going to take between the free agents or trades and stuff like that, but we’re going to stay engaged.”

The Yankees have remained connected to the usual suspects (Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Corey Kluber, etc.) since the Paxton trade and I’m sure they’ve checked in on some not-so-usual suspects (Wade Miley? Gio Gonzalez?) as well. It seems the Yankees have their sights set fairly high though. They’re not looking for a back-end innings guy. They want an impact pitcher like, well, Corbin or Happ or Kluber.

Among the other pitchers the Yankees have at least discussed internally this offseason is lefty Yusei Kikuchi of the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Pro Baseball. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual,” said Hal Steinbrenner recently, which hardly qualifies as interest or an endorsement. Kikuchi will be posted this offseason though, so he’s a potential target. Let’s dig in to see whether he’s a fit for the Yankees.

Background

Kikuchi, 27, flirted with skipping NPB entirely and signing with an MLB team as an international free agent out of high school back in the day. The Yankees were among the teams to touch base with him. NPB is very much against Japanese high schoolers jumping straight to MLB, that’s not a precedent they want set, and they were able to convince Kikuchi to stay in Japan. The Lions drafted him and he’s been with Seibu ever since. Kikuchi owns a career 2.81 ERA in 1,035.1 innings in parts of eight NPB seasons.

Performance

Because of injuries and general young player struggles, it took a few years for Kikuchi to settle in and establish himself as one of the top pitchers in NPB. Here are his 2016-18 numbers (with a big shoutout to 1.02 – Essence of Baseball):

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	WAR
2016	143	2.58	3.66	21.3	11.3	48.7	0.44	+3.7
2017	187.2	1.97	2.87	29.5	6.7	50.3	0.77	+6.6
2018	163.2	3.08	3.50	23.4	6.9	53.2	0.88	+5.6
2018 NPB AVG	–	3.90	4.21	18.6	8.5	46.9	0.97	–

Context time! First and foremost, Kikuchi played in NPB’s Pacific League, the DH league, so his numbers have not been skewed by facing the opposing pitcher. Secondly, park factors indicate MetLife Dome is the most neutral park in NPB. It is slightly pitcher friendly but not enough to be significant. Kikuchi’s park adjusted ERA and FIP this past season were both about 20% better than league average.

Third, there are way more balls in play in NPB than MLB. Generally speaking, the obsession with launch angle has yet to catch on in NPB. Because of that, the league average strikeout rate is still relatively low. Kikuchi’s 23.4% strikeout rate this past season was 26% better than league average. That’s like an MLB starter putting up a 28.1% strikeout rate.

Fourth, Kikuchi has played in front of some strong defenses. In 2018 the Lions led NPB in UZR (+68.5) and ranked third in Defensive Efficiency (.703). Last year they led in UZR (+41.7) and were second in Defensive Efficiency (+.708). It’s hard to know exactly how much that helped Kikuchi — he is high strikeout pitcher, after all — but I reckon it did help to some degree. Just something to keep in mind.

And fifth, Kikuchi did not allow much hard contact in 2018. This past season he had a 27.7% hard contact rate, which is comfortably below the 32.1% league average. Kikuchi had a 34.7% hard contact rate last year and a 31.2% hard contact rate the year before, so this season is the exception rather than the rule. He’s been closer to the league average throughout his career. Overall though, the numbers are good. Not overwhelming, but good.

Current Stuff

Relative to pro baseball players, Kikuchi is short and stocky at 6-foot-0 and 220 pounds. Since 1990, a completely arbitrary endpoint, only 15 lefties standing no taller than 6-foot-0 have racked up at least +10 WAR. Huh. Four of them were full-time relievers. Maybe that’s why the Yankees traded the 6-foot-0 Justus Sheffield? Eh, whatever. I guess this means height is not on Kikuchi’s side.

Anyway, the scouting reports (including this one, this one, and this one) say Kikuchi is a fastball/slider guy who also mixes in a curveball and a changeup. A few weeks ago Jon Morosi spoke to former big leaguer Frank Herrmann about Kikuchi. Here’s what Herrmann said about playing against him in Japan:

“When we have faced him, we have hit him pretty well, and that’s with a heavy left-handed lineup,” Herrmann told MLB.com. “The [velocity] and sharpness of the slider seems to be down from last year. The one positive I’ve seen from him is that is he’s becoming more than a [two-pitch] guy, which he predominantly was last season. He will now flip in a curveball early in the count and uses his changeup to guys that [are] on his fastball. Last year, there was never a need to get away from the [fastball/slider] combo.

…

“They all mention that his work ethic and competitiveness are top-notch,” Herrmann said. “It’s also known that he really wants to go to MLB and compete against the best.”

The comp game is dangerous because it creates unrealistic expectations, but, for what it’s worth, Patrick Corbin has been the most common comp for Kikuchi these last few weeks. It fits. They’re both lefties who rely heavily on their fastball and slider, and will flip in a curveball and changeup from time to time. Corbin is three inches taller though, which is not nothing. The extra downhill plane helps.

There is not as much velocity in NPB as there is in MLB. Not even close, really. The average NPB fastball clocked in at 89.4 mph in 2018. Kikuchi averaged 91.5 mph and that was the third highest in the league. That’s all well and good, but 91.5 mph plays much differently in MLB as it does NPB. The MLB average fastball this past season was 93.2 mph overall and 92.2 mph for lefties. Crazy. A 91.5 mph fastball looks very different to MLB hitters than it does NPB hitters.

That isn’t to say Kikuchi can’t succeed in MLB with a 91 mph heater. Lots of guys do it, including Corbin. Everything works together and the slider helps keep hitters off the fastball. Here are some numbers on Kikuchi’s arsenal over the years:

	Fastball			Slider			Curveball			Changeup
	%	Velo	R/100	%	Velo	R/100	%	Velo	R/100	%	Velo	R/100
2016	55.9	91.4	-0.24	27.7	82.8	+1.43	10.6	71.2	+1.96	5.8	78.4	+2.03
2017	56.3	92.3	+1.66	28.5	85.6	+1.13	9.3	73.3	-0.40	4.0	81.3	+0.32
2018	48.6	91.5	+0.45	34.7	85.7	+1.16	11.1	74.1	-0.50	5.3	79.3	+0.08

Kikuchi’s fastball velocity was down in 2018 compared to 2017, but it was right in line with 2016, so is 2017 the outlier? Also, he used the fastball less than 50% of the time in 2018 — not coincidentally, his slider usage has been ticking up — so he’s embracing the anti-fastball lifestyle. Bottom line, Kikuchi has thrown roughly 85% fastballs and sliders the last three years. They are his go-to pitches.

The run values (R/100 is runs above average for every 100 pitches thrown) indicate his slider has been a true plus pitch the last three years. The fastball has been up-and-down — it’s not a coincidence his fastball posted its highest run value the year he had his best velocity — while the curve and change have been kinda okay. They’ve hovered right around average the last two years in small samples.

There are shockingly few videos available of 2018 Kikuchi. Instead, here’s video of an August 2017 start in which he struck out eleven and set a new NPB record by throwing a 98 mph fastball, the fastest ever by a left-hander. (I have no idea if the record still stands.) Come for Kikuchi looking nasty, stay for former Yankee Zelous Wheeler striking out three times on three different pitches:

If nothing else, the video shows that Kikuchi threw quite hard at one point and that his slider can be a devastating pitch. The slider Wheeler struck out on at the 0:54 mark is as nasty as any left-handed slider you’ll find in MLB. That’s an Andrew Miller at his best slider. A slider that good helps a fastball play better than its velocity.

Also, Kikuchi is into analytics, which is pretty cool. Specifically, he uses Trackman data (Statcast) to make sure his mechanics are where they need to be. Here’s what he told Jim Allen back in June:

“Now I check each game’s data with our analysts, three or four points, my release point, my extension and so on,” he said Saturday, a night after he threw seven scoreless innings against the Pacific League-rival Lotte Marines. “It allows me to make adjustments, and as I make adjustments and see how they go in games, I get a sense for where I need to be.”

“My release point has been higher recently. I noticed in my game against the Giants (on June 8). It turned out to be 9 centimeters higher than a year ago. I worked on that by tilting my torso slightly and got it down to around 3 cm higher than last year in my last start against Chunichi (June 15). I haven’t seen the data for last night’s game, but I would bet that in my final inning, I was within a centimeter of the release point I want, which is 167 cm.”

“In the past, all I had to rely on was video. This is completely different because just looking at a video didn’t give you an exact figure. In the end it was always about feel.”

Based on the written scouting reports, the numbers, and the little video we have, Kikuchi works with an average-ish MLB fastball that might even be a touch worse when he goes from the once-a-week NPB schedule to a once-every-fifth day MLB schedule, a knockout slider, and a show-me curveball and changeup. The slider is the key pitch. That’s the moneymaker.

Given the difference in styles of play, it is not unreasonable to expect Kikuchi’s strikeout rate to tick up once he moves to MLB. All the recent Japanese imports struck out more batters in their first MLB season than they did in their last NPB season:

Masahiro Tanaka: 22.3 K% to 26.0 K%
Kenta Maeda: 21.3 K% to 25.0 K%
Shohei Ohtani: 27.6 K% to 29.9 K%

The consensus is Kikuchi is a notch below Tanaka and Ohtani (and Yu Darvish) and closer to Maeda. Tanaka and Ohtani (and Darvish) were seen as potential aces. Maeda was more of a mid-rotation starter. That’s where Kikuchi is believed to fit. A mid-rotation guy rather than a rotation headliner. Mid-rotation starters are important! You need those guys. And hey, everyone could be wrong. Maybe Kikuchi will be an ace. It seems he’ll be something less than that though.

Injury History

MLB injury data is readily available. NPB injury data is not. Kikuchi does have an injury history — an arm injury history at that — and here’s what I’ve been able to piece together:

2010: Missed entire season with shoulder trouble.
2013: Missed part of the season with shoulder trouble.
2016: Missed two months with a right side injury.
2018: Missed time with shoulder tightness.

When the Yankees made the Paxton trade last week, he said the “good news, so far, is all the injuries I’ve had haven’t reoccurred.” Kikuchi’s injuries have been reoccurring. He’s missed time with shoulder problems in three different seasons now, including 2018, and they date all the way back to 2010. The side injury seems to be one time thing. Maybe he pulled an oblique or something? It happens. Ongoing shoulder trouble though? Eek.

I guess the good news is Kikuchi has not had surgery, as best I can tell. Once you start cutting into shoulders, things get messy. I’ve said this countless times before and I’m going to say it again: The best predictor of future injury is past injury. A guy like Kikuchi, who’s had shoulder trouble throughout his career, is probably going to have shoulder trouble again at some point going forward.

It’s worth nothing that, according to Joel Sherman, Kikuchi came to the United States two weeks ago to take a pre-signing physical. That’s standard nowadays. Tanaka, Maeda, and Ohtani all took a physical before being posted. That allowed teams to review their medical information up front and also save time later. The two sides won’t have to squeeze in a physical before the end of the negotiating period. Kikuchi’s shoulder will surely be scrutinized.

How Does The Posting System Work?

Late last week the Lions announced Kikuchi will be posted on Monday, December 3rd, and his 30-day negotiating period will begin on Wednesday, December 5th. It’ll end on Thursday, January 3rd. “My talks with my agent are moving forward, and we’ve concluded this is the best day to do it,” said Kikuchi to the Japan Times last week.

The posting system has undergone several revisions in recent years that have made it more favorable to MLB teams and more favorable to the player. NPB teams got hosed. Now the player gets 30 days to negotiate with all 30 teams like a true free agent. And the release fee, rather than be set by the player’s former team in Japan, is now a percentage of his contract. The release fee breakdown:

Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total guarantee
Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of guarantee over $25M
Contract worth $50M or more: $9.375M plus 15% of guarantee over $50M
Additional 15% of all bonuses and escalators earned, and options exercised

Let’s say that, hypothetically, Kikuchi signs a six-year deal worth $60M with $5M in bonuses per season and a $15M club option for a seventh year. The Lions would receive a $10.875M release fee up front ($9.375M plus 15% of the guarantee over $50M) plus potentially an extra $750,000 per year (15% of the $5M) if he maxes out his bonuses. And, if the $15M option is exercised, that’s another $2.25M down the line (15% of the option).

Long story short, Kikuchi will be able to negotiate with any team for a 30-day period, and the team that signs him has to pay a release fee as laid out above. Every team can afford it. They’re just really good at pretending they can’t. As far as the Yankees are concerned, only the contract counts against the luxury tax. The release fee does not. The same was true with Tanaka back in the day.

Contract Estimates

I don’t think any of the recent Japanese imports set a contract benchmark for Kikuchi. Tanaka was very highly regarded and that led to a seven-year, $155M contract. Maeda settled for eight years and $25M guaranteed with $81.5M (!) in workload bonuses due to a preexisting elbow injury. Ohtani was limited to a minor league contract because his age made him subject to MLB’s international spending rules. None fit as a Kikuchi benchmark.

It’s possible Hyun-Jin Ryu’s original six-year, $36M contract with the Dodgers could serve as a contract benchmark for Kikuchi, but keep in mind that contract was negotiated under a different posting system. Los Angeles placed the high bid for Ryu’s negotiating rights and he could only talk to them. He had limited leverage. Here are some Kikuchi contract estimates:

FanGraphs Crowdsourcing: Four years, $52M ($13M per year)
MLBTR: Six years, $42M ($7M per year)

Two very different predictions! One is basically double the other in terms of annual salary. Split the difference and it’s five years and $10M per season. That would be a bargain for a 27-year-old lefty with a swing-and-miss slider who put up Kikuchi’s NPB numbers in MLB. Kikuchi didn’t put up his numbers in MLB though. He put them up in NPB and there’s an element of the unknown here. And there’s his history of shoulder trouble too.

I should mention that, because he was subject to the international spending rules, the Angels will get six years of control with Ohtani like any other rookie. I don’t believe that will be the case for Kikuchi, however, because he is not subject to those international rules. My reference here is Tony Barnette. Texas acquire Barnette from the Yakult Swallows through the posting system in December 2015 and signed him to a two-year deal with an option. They declined the option last offseason and he became a free agent despite having only two years of service time.

Because of that, I think Kikuchi will become a free agent after the contract he signs this winter expires regardless of service time. If he signs a four-year deal, he’ll become a free agent in four years, etc. Not counting Ohtani, five NPB starting pitchers have come to MLB through the posting system. All five received at least four years and four of the five received at least five years. Kikuchi’s going to get good term this offseason. His contract will have some length to it. The dollars? Who knows.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Man, I don’t know. On one hand, a 27-year-old southpaw who misses bats would fit nicely into that open rotation slot. Especially since his contract could be (will likely be) a bargain compared to what a similar MLB pitcher would get in free agency. Even if Kikuchi is a third or fourth starter long-term, a guy who settles in around +2 WAR per year, that’s someone worth bringing into the organization. Those guys are tougher to find than you’d think.

On the other hand, Kikuchi has no MLB track record and a history of shoulder problems, and that’s always scary. And the Yankees wouldn’t just be bringing him over into MLB either. They’d be bringing him into Yankee Stadium and the AL East, and that might be the most pitcher unfriendly environment in baseball. Every pitcher is risky. Kikuchi carries additional risk given his injury history and lack of an MLB track record. For a guy who might top out as a mid-rotation starter, it might be a little too much risk for a win now team.

The Yankees did scout Kikuchi this past season. How much? We don’t know, exactly. The Yankees were all over Tanaka in the weeks and months leading up to his posting. The rumors started in May 2013, eight months before Tanaka was actually posted. We haven’t seen nearly as many reports about Kikuchi now as Tanaka back then. That doesn’t mean the Yankees aren’t interested in Kikuchi. It just means there are fewer reports about it. They might be keeping things closer to the vest.

Also, we don’t know anything about Kikuchi’s preferences. Does he want to go a contender? The West Coast? A small market? Wherever the largest contract offer comes from? I’m not sure anyone except Kikuchi, his family, and his agent (Scott Boras), know that. As we learned with Ohtani last year, the Yankees could be ruled out before the chase even begins. Kikuchi may prefer an entirely different situation. I guess we’ll find out.

Personally, I prefer signing Corbin or even Happ to signing Kikuchi. I am intrigued by the possibility of nabbing a younger Corbin on a smaller contract, but, ultimately, the history of shoulder trouble scares me, and I think the Yankees need more of a sure thing. They are ready to win and need players they are reasonably certain can help them win right now. Kikuchi is too much of an unknown for my liking.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Saturday Links: Severino, Corbin, Kikuchi, Stanton

October 13, 2018 by Mike

This is one of my least favorite times of the year. The Yankees have been eliminated but other teams are still playing baseball. Sucks. Anyway, here are some notes to check out.

Yankees believe Severino was tipping pitches

According to Jon Heyman, several people with the Yankees believe Luis Severino was tipping his pitches in Game Three of the ALDS earlier this week. “The Red Sox had his pitches,” said one Yankees official. Heyman adds the Yankees heard “chatter” from Red Sox people about Severino tipping his pitches, presumably after the series. Ben Harris (subs. req’d) found evidence of the pitch-tipping. With a runner on second, Severino would pause to look at third base when throwing a fastball, even when there was no runner at third base to check. Huh.

There has been on-and-off speculation about Severino tipping his pitches for weeks now. Basically the entire second half. I usually shrug at this stuff because it seems every time a good pitcher struggles, the first explanation is “he must be tipping his pitches.” It’s possible Severino was tipping! I mean, Harris found evidence of it. That said, tipping pitches doesn’t explain the decline in velocity, the crummy command, and the sudden lack of bite on his slider. Tipping pitches would be the best possible outcome here. That is an easy fix, theoretically. It seems to me something else was going on though.

Yankees expected to pursue Corbin

We can file this under no duh: The Yankees are expected to pursue free agent lefty Patrick Corbin this offseason, reports Heyman. They’ve been after him for a while — the Yankees tried to get him at the Winter Meetings last year — and Corbin is a native (upstate) New Yorker who has been pretty open about wanting to play for the Yankees. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard the Yankees like Corbin and it won’t be the last.

Corbin, 29, just wrapped up his best season in the big leagues. He threw 200 innings on the nose with a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP) and excellent strikeout (30.8%), walk (6.0%), and ground ball (48.5%) rates. His home run rate dropped from 1.30 HR/9 (16.6 HR/FB%) from 2016-17 to 0.68 HR/9 (11.1 HR/FB%) in 2019. Also, weirdly enough, Corbin was second in MLB in hard contact allowed. That’s generally a bad thing. We’re going to look at Corbin more in-depth at some point for sure. I think 2018 was likely his career year. I also think that he’s very good, that he’s the best starting pitcher on the free agent market, and that he would unquestionably make the Yankees better.

Kikuchi will be posted

The Seibu Lions in Japan will indeed post southpaw Yusei Kikuchi this offseason, report Sankei Sports and Sports Hochi. Kikuchi has not been posted yet. He can’t be posted until after the World Series. Technically, he can only be posted between November 1st and December 5th. Once he’s posted, he gets a 30-day window to negotiate with any and all MLB teams, and the signing team pays Seibu a release fee. Here’s the new release fee system:

Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total guarantee
Contract worth $25M and $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
Contract worth $50M: $9.375M plus 15% of amount over $50M

The Yankees have reportedly been scouting Kikuchi. The 27-year-old threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and a 23.4% strikeout rate this past season, and that’s in a league with an 18.9% average strikeout rate. (The MLB strikeout rate was 22.3% in 2018.) Kikuchi has a history of arm problems and he’s not considered a potential ace on par with Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, and Shohei Ohtani when they were posted. He is quite good though, and he is only 27, and the Yankees need starters. The Kikuchi situation will be something to watch this offseason.

Stanton among finalists for Hank Aaron Award

Earlier this month MLB announced each team’s finalist for the 2018 Hank Aaron Award, which is given annually the top hitter in each league. Giancarlo Stanton is the Yankees’ finalist. Here are all 30 finalists. The winner will be announced during the World Series and is selected through a combination of fan and media voting. (The fan voting closed already. Sorry I didn’t pass along the link sooner.)

The Hank Aaron Award was introduced in 1999 and so far only two Yankees have won it: Derek Jeter (2006, 2009) and Alex Rodriguez (2007). Would’ve have guessed Jeter won it twice and A-Rod once, but here we are. Stanton won the Hank Aaron Award in 2014 and 2017 with the Marlins. The Hank Aaron Award tends to favor old school stats like hits and runs and batted in. My guess is J.D. Martinez or Mike Trout will win it in the American League.

Sunday Links: Kikuchi, Acevedo, AzFL, King, Judge

September 30, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees and Red Sox close out their 2018 regular seasons with their three-game series finale later today. Every game across the league starts at 3pm ET today. There are some great postseason races in the National League. American League? Not so much. I’m looking forward to one last stress-free game. Here are some notes to check out prior to today’s season finale.

Yankees scouting Kikuchi

According to Jim Allen, the Yankees were among the teams with a scout(s) on hand to watch Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi during his most recent start. Kikuchi, 27, has a 3.08 ERA with 153 strikeouts in 163.2 innings for the Seibu Lions this season. He’s been among the best pitchers in Japan the last few years. The Lions are expected to post Kikuchi for MLB teams this offseason.

I wrote about Kikuchi and the Yankees back in April. His stuff is legit. He has a qualify fastball and a wide array of secondary pitches. The biggest concern with Kikuchi is a history of arm problems. That doesn’t automatically disqualify him as a possible offseason target. It’s just something that has to be considered. The Yankees have two starters in place for next season (Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) and I’d bet the farm on CC Sabathia returning. Kikuchi could be a candidate to fill one of the other two rotation spots.

Acevedo removed from AzFL roster

Right-hander Domingo Acevedo has been removed from the Glendale Desert Dogs roster and will not pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year, the league announced. No reason was given but I assume it is injury related. Acevedo was placed on the disabled list with a biceps injury — his second biceps injury of 2018 — at the very end of the minor league season. Injuries limited him to 69.1 innings this season.

The Yankees had an open AzFL roster spot to fill — I have no idea whether that spot is a pitcher spot or position player spot — and now they have to fill Acevedo’s spot as well. I wonder if this opens the door for Jonathan Loaisiga to go to the AzFL to make up for the innings he lost to shoulder inflammation earlier this season. Loaisiga has thrown only 78.2 innings this year and he’s been sitting in the bullpen as a September call-up these last few weeks. The Yankees might not want to throw him to the wolves in the historically hitter friendly AzFL without being properly stretched out.

King among top Eastern League prospects

Baseball America (subs. req’d) continued their look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league earlier this week with the Double-A Eastern League. Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. predictably claims the top spot. He is the top prospect in baseball. Righty Mike King is the only Yankees prospect on the list. He ranks 18th. Here’s a snippet of the scouting report:

He’s lauded internally for the extraordinary amount of work he puts into every start, which has helped him game plan opposing hitters all year long … He starts by commanding a pair of average 89-93 mph fastballs to both sides of the plate and backs it up with a slider and changeup that can generate swings and misses … Because he’s jumped so quickly this year, scouts are understandably hesitant about his future role, with most seeing him as a possible No. 5 starter.

In the chat (subs. req’d), Josh Norris notes righty Erik Swanson showed well this year, though he didn’t throw enough innings with Double-A Trenton to qualify for the Eastern League top 20 list. “(Swanson) saw particular results because of the way his fastball carried through the zone. He also got better at commanding his entire arsenal and made progress with his changeup,” says the write-up. King is not yet Rule 5 Draft eligible. I’m curious to see whether Swanson gets added to the 40-man roster.

Judge has MLB’s highest selling jersey (again)

For the second straight season, Aaron Judge has the highest selling jersey in baseball. MLB and the MLBPA jointly announced their annual most popular player jerseys list earlier this week — that is based on sales at MLB.com’s online shop — and it is dominated by young players. Here’s the press release and here’s the top five:

Aaron Judge, Yankees
Jose Altuve, Astros
Javier Baez, Cubs
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Mookie Betts, Red Sox

Giancarlo Stanton is ninth on the list, one spot behind Shohei Ohtani. I’d love to see the numbers on these jersey sales. Anecdotally, it seems to me there are more Judge jerseys and shirts in the stands these days than any other player since Derek Jeter retired. Jeter always dominated the jersey and shirt scene. Feels like Judge is right up there with him now.