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How the Yankees can mitigate the absences of Luis Severino and CC Sabathia

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(Presswire)

The regular season has yet to begin, but the Yankees’ season is already off to an auspicious start. Without ace Luis Severino until May (at the earliest) and back of the rotation stalwart CC Sabathia until some point in April, the Yankees will have to begin the season with a depleted pitching staff. Opportunities for Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga have opened up thanks to these injuries. That’s not ideal, even if you’re a fan of German or Loaisiga (apologies to Cessa, but I don’t know many fans of him).

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers, so it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are in this situation. It’s just unfortunate that they’re already in this predicament. Even when Severino and Sabathia return, someone is going to miss start(s) later on in the year. For now though, the team can only address the short-term issue and be optimistic about a rotation at full-strength by early May. There are a few things that could help the team wade through the absences of Severino and Sabathia.

Skipping starts when possible

There are five off-days through the end of April, which would allow the team to use a fifth starter (or opener) only four times in the first 29 games of the year. In the scenario diagrammed above, opening day starter Masahiro Tanaka would start seven times through April 30th, allowing him an average of just under five days of rest. Even though he has a reputation of being better with extra time off, his career ERA is better on four days of rest than five. Starters two through four would average 5.67 days of rest and pitch six times a piece. Skipping starts frequently can be taxing on a rotation, but because there are so many off days to begin the year, it doesn’t look terribly strenuous.

The benefit of skipping the fifth starter as much as possible is obvious: it results in fewer starts by an inferior pitcher. We already know that the fourth starter isn’t going to be anyone the Yankees originally planned for, so that’s a step down already. You know what that means about the fifth guy. All that said about skipping starts, there’s a saying about best laid plans. Weather could throw a wrench in this approach pretty quickly. Or on the bright side, maybe Cessa provides a shot in the arm!

Using an opener

Mike wrote about why this makes sense already, even if it makes you queasy. No need for me to regurgitate what he wrote as I’m basically in agreement. Rather, here’s the simple question to ask yourself: do you want Cessa or German facing the top of the order? Or would you rather bring them in when the sixth or seventh hitter comes due?

A light early season schedule

The good news is that there are some bad teams on the slate for the first month of the season. 16 of the season’s first 29 games will be against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. All but three of those games will be at home. Not having Severino or Sabathia against those teams shouldn’t make a big difference as there isn’t much of an excuse to lose to them. Obviously, things happen and they’ll inevitably drop a few against those teams, but the point stands.

The other 13 affairs aren’t a cakewalk, particularly the Astros and Red Sox. There’s a west coast trip at the end of the month, which is always challenging even though there are two presumably non-contending teams they’ll face: the Diamondbacks and Giants. By that time, perhaps they’ll have Sabathia back, which would be a nice boost to close the month.

Signing a free agent

It doesn’t sound like the Yankees are planning to go the external route, but until Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel sign elsewhere, it can’t be ruled out. Based on what we know about the prognosis for Severino and Sabathia along with the light schedule and off days, I can understand why the Yankees don’t feel pressed for external help. Still, setbacks happen. There’s only so long they can bide their time without outside assistance unless the young arms step up.

One reason that being proactive for a free agent makes sense is because of a potential setback for Severino or Sabathia. What if, in a few weeks, we hear that either of the two need more time on the shelf, but neither Keuchel or Gonzalez are available? The Yankees would really be in a bind then. Sure, it would be a issue if everyone came back healthy on schedule with one of Keuchel or Gonzalez in tow, but that’s a good problem to have. These things sort themselves out. Like I said, someone else is bound to miss some time down the road, anyway. It’s not like a six-man rotation would be unheard of, too.

The Scranton shuttle and other relief depth [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

It’s pretty easy to predict how the Yankees are going to staff their bullpen this season. There are six players guaranteed a roster spot, barring injury. The team is planning to carry a 13 man pitching staff this year, meaning that there are two open spots assuming a five man starting rotation. Tommy Kahnle probably snags one of the two jobs considering he’s out of options. The last opening probably will be interchangeable throughout the season, though having a long reliever could be the outcome.

There are no shortage of relievers who could ride the Scranton shuttle this season, rotating as the 13th pitcher as needed. Some of them are already on the 40-man, while others are non-roster invitees. It would be easy to write off any of the foregoing players as significant contributors, but let’s not forget that what Jonathan Holder did last year. He went from being the main back-and-forth guy to a major league bullpen staple.

40-man shuttlers

Stephen Tarpley

There usually isn’t too much to say about a September call-up who’s a reliever. Yet, Tarpley has become a pretty fascinating pitcher to follow. The Yankees probably envision him as Zack Britton-lite, and there’s good reason why. Prior to Britton joining the Yankees, Tarpley spent some time shadowing him prior to the 2017 season. Who knows if that story would have been uncovered had Britton not been traded to New York.

Tarpley saw his groundball rate jump dramatically in 2017, almost certainly due to Britton’s influence. Combine that with the high strikeout rates in the high minors and you have an interesting relief prospect. Tarpley was pretty good in his 10 inning cameo last September and even made the playoff roster. He’ll probably get the bulk of the major league time that anyone else on the Scranton shuttle gets this summer.

Ben Heller

Tommy John surgery cost Heller all of 2018 and will curtail part of his 2019 as well. After going under the knife last April, he’s six weeks away rehab game action. That doesn’t mean he’s close to the big leagues, though. In all likelihood, he’s probably not an option until mid-season.

The Yankees acquired Heller as part of the Andrew Miller trade a few years ago. He’s already seen small parts of two major league seasons with the Yankees, totaling 18 innings. Best known for his mid-to-high 90s fastball, it’ll be interesting to see how his velocity returns this summer. Even though he’s already had a good deal of success in Triple-A, he’s probably going to spend a lot of time there this year.

Joe Harvey

Harvey was a somewhat surprising 40-man roster addition a few months ago. One of the reasons I profiled him in February was because I didn’t know anything about him. He’s still a bit of a mystery, though the Yankees clearly like him enough to save him a seat on the 40-man.

A little bit has been made about the spin rate on his fastball. It’s very good, and spin rate has become all the rage in baseball these days. Just look at what the Astros have done with their pitchers. Anyway, Harvey doesn’t appear to have much else other than a good fastball. Yet, if he puts up numbers like he did in the minors last year (sub 2 ERA), he’ll get his shot this summer.

Non-roster possibilities with big league experience

Danny Farquhar

As Mike wrote last month, it’s pretty easy to pull for Farquhar to carve out a role with the big club. It’s a distinct possibility that he could return to the majors after his near-death experience in the White Sox dugout last summer. As a non-roster invitee who’s already been sent to minor league camp, he’s still on the outside looking in. It’s not hard to see why the Yankees like him: he strikes out plenty of hitters and has had good seasons with Seattle and Tampa Bay. Plus, the Yankees have had him in the organization before, back in 2012. There’s still a lot for Farquhar to overcome, but if he resembles something of his old self he could be in pinstripes this year.

Rex Brothers

Brothers is representative of the adage that lefties never run out of opportunities. The southpaw was pretty impressive for the Rockies early in his career with his high velocity fastball. Eventually, Colorado cut bait when his control evaded him. After not making the Cubs in 2016, he sat out the entire season. Beginning in 2017, he worked his way back to the big leagues with Atlanta. His walk problems never went away though, and he walked more than a batter per inning in the minors last year. Still, his velocity from the left side is tantalizing. He averaged over 96 MPH on his heater in limited time with Atlanta last season. He can’t be totally ignored as an option for the Yankees since he is in camp, but it would probably take a ton of injuries or an unlikely resurgence.

Daniel Coulombe

Stylistically, Coulombe is the opposite of Brothers. Instead of a high-octane fastball, Coulombe is a lefty who relies on his slider and curveball two-thirds of the time. He’s been in the majors every year since 2014, split between the Dodgers and A’s, with middling results. It’s hard to see him as much more than emergency depth even though he’s hung around the highest level for a while now. Maybe another team will want to give him a big league chance before the month is over, but if not, he’ll hang around in Scranton most of the year. Maybe he could be plucked for September call-ups if the Yankees want a matchup lefty.

Prospects invited to big league spring training

Trevor Stephan

Even though Stephan has been a starter in the minors, it sounds like 2017’s 3rd-rounder could be best deployed out of the bullpen. He works exclusively out of the stretch, doesn’t really have a third pitch just yet, and has a little bit of an odd delivery. Stephan’s a pretty big guy, standing at six-foot-four, but his fastball extension is even more impressive. He’s got a seven foot reach which certainly makes his fastball tougher to hit. He’ll be in the minors to start the year, but he should be knocking on the door by year end.

Brady Lail

25-year-olds aren’t always prospects, but Lail became mildly interesting after moving to the bullpen last summer. From getting drafted in 2012 through his climb to Triple-A, the righty was a starter. Last year, he became a full-time reliever and started picking up more strikeouts. He wasn’t a one-and-done type of guy though; he pitched multiple innings quite a bit out of the pen. His ERA was too high, sitting over 5, but as a multi-inning option he could become an alternative to someone like Luis Cessa this season. Lail’s already been assigned to minor league camp, but he could be around later this year.

Raynel Espinal and Phillip Diehl

I’m grouping these two together because Domenic called them out as guys who could help the Yankees this year. Espinal, 27, has been in the organization since 2013 and finally made Triple-A last year. He’s yet another hard-thrower with impressive strikeout rates. Diehl, 24, is a lefty without much of a platoon split thus far in his minor league career. He’s had a great spring (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 10 K) and Aaron Boone has mentioned him by name when asked who’s impressed in camp. Both are probably heading to Scranton to start the year, but either could become part of the shuttle in a few months.

Cale Coshow

At six-foot-five and 270 pounds, Coshow has a presence on the mound. He flip-flopped between starting and relieving from 2013 through 2016 until becoming a reliever full-time in 2017. You’ve heard this story before: he started to miss a lot more bats in the bullpen. He’s likely low on the promotion pecking order, but the fact that he was in big league camp means the Yankees like him to some degree.

The contingency plan for Aaron Hicks

by

(Presswire)

Opening day is roughly two weeks away and the Yankees might not have their regular starting center fielder for it. Back problems have held Aaron Hicks out of camp for a little more than a week now. Even though he’s indicated that he’s not worried about his readiness for the start of the season, it’s fair to wonder with time running out. It seems like there’s been talk of Hicks getting back into action every day now, only to be pushed back. The latest is that he just received a cortisone shot on Monday.

It’s fine and astute to be cautious at this junction of the year. It’s also reasonable to ponder what would happen if he’s not ready to go by the end of the month. If healthy, the team’s position players were all but set, aside from the first base competition. If Hicks proves not to be ready by opening day, there would have to be a reshuffle.

Here’s how the dominoes could fall without Hicks: Brett Gardner would become the regular center fielder, which in turn leaves a left field vacancy. Giancarlo Stanton could take over in that corner, but that would leave the designated hitter role open. Give that job to Miguel Andujar, and third base is available. Let DJ LeMahieu take over the hot corner, and a bench spot opens up. Who gets it? It depends on how the club plans to replace Hicks’s playing time.

Without Hicks, the Yankees have only three true outfielders slated to make the 25-man roster. Tyler Wade, the apparent favorite for the final bench spot, has some experience out there. Even though the team is working him in the outfield corners this spring, they still might want an extra primary outfielder. That could be Clint Frazier, though it would only make sense if he were to play daily. That means he’d probably rotate with Stanton in left field and at DH, which would bump Andujar and LeMahieu back to their original roles.

A problem with going the Frazier route is that he hasn’t performed well in Grapefruit League play. Not that we should make a big deal of spring training stats, but it might behoove him to spend some extra time in Triple-A to get back up to speed. Shaking off the rust in Scranton wouldn’t be a bad thing.

Jacoby Ellsbury doesn’t appear to be an option even though he’s joining the team in a few days. If he reports this weekend as anticipated, he’d only have ten days or so to be ready for big league action. Ellsbury’s going to open the season on the injured list barring something unforeseen.

If the Yankees are comfortable not having a true fourth outfielder, perhaps they’d reconsider the idea of rostering both Luke Voit and Greg Bird. They’ve made it clear that under normal circumstances it doesn’t make sense to keep both of them, but maybe losing Hicks changes things. In this scenario, Stanton would play the outfield regularly while Voit and Bird are both in the lineup at first base and DH.

The only other 40-man roster position players are Kyle Higashioka and Thairo Estrada. Neither make sense to replace Hicks for the short run. There’s no need for a third catcher nor another infielder.

Would the Yankees entertain a non-roster player? Billy Burns, Matt Lipka, and Estevan Florial are the current in-house options with the major league team this month. Florial has been awesome in camp and will need to be added to the 40-man eventually, but there’s no need to rush him. Burns and Lipka don’t offer much more than a warm body, which probably keeps them from traveling north. Alternatively, depending on Hicks’s status over the next week or two, the Yankees can monitor other team’s NRIs with opt out dates approaching. There are even some mildly interesting free agents out there, should this back problem linger.

If I had to rank the possibilities of potential replacement, I’d go as follows:

  1. Bird/Voit
  2. Frazier
  3. Burns/Lipka
  4. Free agent/Poach another team’s NRI
  5. Higashioka/Estrada
  6. Ellsbury
  7. Florial

I lean toward Bird/Voit because they both could gain regular playing time, and it would give the team more time to make a decision on what to do with the two of them. If Frazier wasn’t returning from such a difficult situation, he’d easily be my top choice.

Hopefully this roster speculation is much ado about nothing. I’m sure the last thing Hicks wants to do is spend any time on the injured list. He has a reputation of being somewhat brittle, though he did manage a career high 137 games played last season. Regardless of how this plays out, it’s most important to get him back to full strength without taking any shortcuts.

James Paxton’s first year in pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

James Paxton, also known as The Big Maple, was the Yankees biggest acquisition following the 2018 campaign. The tall southpaw came over from the Mariners, where he grew into their number one starter as Felix Hernandez declined. Paxton has made a good early impression in camp, allowing just one run in his first three starts. Despite being the prize of the team’s offseason, there seemingly hasn’t been much hubbub about him since pitchers and catchers reported. And that’s not a bad thing, rather, it seems like he’s simply put his head down and gone to work. Still, the spotlight will be on the 30-year-old once the regular season begins, especially while Luis Severino is unavailable.

The de facto ace

The Yankees already had an ace —  Severino — before they acquired Paxton. Whether you want to call him and Severino 1A and 1B, or declare Paxton as a number two, one thing is for sure: he’s the ace as long as Severino’s out. Of course, an ace is just a moniker that gets thrown around. There was always going to be plenty of pressure on Paxton to perform like a top-shelf starter this season, but now with Severino’s return in question, The Big Maple’s margin for error has shrunk.

Masahiro Tanaka may have gotten the opening day nod in place of Severino, but that doesn’t minimize the importance of Paxton’s performance out of the gate. It sounds like the Yankees and Severino dodged a bullet, meaning that he could be back in mid-to-late April, but those games still matter. The rest of the rotation will need to pick up the slack and Paxton will be a major player. Leading a pitching staff is nothing new for Paxton, of course. He’s been that guy for Seattle in recent years. He should be up to the task.

Can he stay healthy?

Paxton has become quite familiar with the injured list during his major league career:

  1. 4/9/14 – 8/27/14: Strained left latissimus dorsi
  2. 5/29/15 – 9/13/15: Strained tendon in left middle finger
  3. 8/16/16 – 8/25/16: Left elbow contusion
  4. 5/5/17 – 5/31/17: Left forearm strain
  5. 8/11/17 – 9/15/17: Strained left pectoral muscle
  6. 7/13/18 – 7/30/18: Lower back inflammation
  7. 8/15/18 – 9/1/18: Left forearm contusion

It’s daunting to know that Paxton’s been on the shelf seven times since he reached the majors, but it’s worth noting that a couple of these injuries were merely bad luck. The elbow and forearm contusions were the result of line drives that struck him. The other maladies are a cause for concern, but on the bright side, only his forearm strain in May of 2017 is alarming. It’s been nearly two year since that injury, and fortunately, nothing else has been arm related.

We already know that the best predictor of future injury are past injuries. Unfortunately, that’s not good news for Paxton. Nonetheless, his workload has been trending in a positive direction over the past three seasons, culminating in a career high 160.1 innings last year. Chances are that the southpaw will hit the shelf at some point this season, but hopefully it’s just a short-term stint.

Pitching in a new home ballpark

I wrote about Paxton’s transition from Seattle to the Bronx about a month ago. His old home was known for it’s tilt toward pitchers, whereas his new digs is homer-friendly. Up until last season, Paxton did an excellent job preventing home runs. After running very low HR/9 numbers, he spiked to 1.29 in 2018. If that’s his true talent level with regard to home run prevention, that means another increase could be in store in pinstripes.

I’m not going to do a rewrite of my previous post here, but the point is that it will be something to watch for. Hopefully, it turns out that last year was more of a fluke driven by an inflated home run to fly ball ratio. If that’s the case, Paxton should pitch brilliantly. If not, it’s not like he’ll be useless. He still excels in many other ways that will allow him to succeed.

Will the Yankees leave him alone?

Last week, Sonny Gray made some waves about the Yankees’ pitching philosophy. In short: Gray was not pleased about the emphasis the team put on throwing breaking balls. He pretty much put the blame on the Yankees for his struggles during his tenure in the Bronx. Even though things didn’t work out with Gray, there’s a reason the Yankees have implemented an anti-fastball philosophy: it generally works. If Gray taught the team anything, it’s that a one size fits all approach probably doesn’t work, despite Gray’s underlying numbers making his breaking pitches look great.

We shouldn’t have to worry about the team making any drastic tweaks to Paxton’s style. He throws his fastball and cutter more than three-quarters of the time, for good reason. Not only has it proven very effective for him, but his curveball doesn’t look like something with significant potential. It’s not that it’s a bad pitch, but rather, that it doesn’t appear to have too much upside by throwing it more often. It’s in the third percentile, or near the very bottom, of the league in terms of spin rate.

The team will certainly look for ways to help Paxton improve, but there isn’t any reason to think it’ll be via the anti-fastball approach. It could be something to help with command, for instance.

Projections

PECOTA: 156 innings, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 DRA, 3.6 WARP

ZiPS: 147.1 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.6 WAR

Steamer: 172 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR

The consensus is that Paxton will be very good this year, which comes as no shock. Playing time is where these systems differ. Steamer is the closest to a full year’s work, but clearly, all systems expect some missed time.

Would you sign up for a mid-3 ERA like these systems project? Paxton authored a 3.76 ERA last season, though he’s also just a year removed from a 2.98 ERA. That’s more like the kind of number we’re all dreaming of. That’s more or less the difference between an ace and a solid number two or three starter. Any of those outcomes would be just fine, but having another frontline starter would be ideal (obviously).

Final Thoughts

I’m really excited to watch Paxton this year. I think in past years, I would have been a bit more worried about acquiring someone like him because of his injury history. Would it be great to have a staff of 200 innings workhorses? Of course. But baseball has changed, for better or worse, over the last decade or so and there simply aren’t a bunch of a 200 inning pitchers lying in wait anymore. Paxton has the ability to be one of the league’s best starters on a per inning basis, and he certainly appears capable of giving 150 stellar innings this year. If he can do that and pitch well in the postseason, no one will care if he doesn’t make 32 or 33 regular season starts.

Early Spring Training observation: Aaron Judge’s adjustment in the box

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If you caught the beginning of the game against the Cardinals on Wednesday, you might have heard Reggie Jackson and Ken Singleton discuss Aaron Judge’s refined approach this spring. Changes that hitters make in the batter’s box aren’t always obvious unless they’re drastic, and I don’t think I would have noticed it until Mr. October said this:

“Aaron has been working in the cage and behind the scenes, if you will, by trying to take a no-stride swing to not have too much going on with two strikes.”

I wanted to see this for myself. Lo and behold, Jackson was right:

Left: 2018, Right: Wednesday.

Watch Judge’s front foot closely. He completely elevated it off the ground last year in a two-strike count. On Wednesday, his toes remained in touch with the dirt. Go back and watch any highlight from Grapefruit League action and you’ll see that he’s been doing this all spring. Shortly after Reggie introduced the topic on the broadcast, Singleton briefly mentioned a discussion he had with hitting coach Marcus Thames, who told Singleton that Judge is trying to cut down on his strikeouts.

That goal should come as no surprise. Strikeouts are Judge’s only flaw on offense, and given his brute strength, it’s easy to dream on how much better he could be with a little more contact.

So, what are the early returns on this adjustment? I shouldn’t be citing spring training stats, but I’m going to do it anyway. Take the following with the largest grain of salt possible. In 17 plate plate appearances, Judge has struck out three times, or just under 18 percent. I’m not going to pretend that’s predictive or anything. Let me emphasize it once more: never, ever, draw conclusions from spring training stats, let alone 17 plate appearances. But…maybe it gives us a little hope? What’s the harm in dreaming?

Before we get too wrapped up in this change, keep in mind that this isn’t the first time Judge has tried to pare down his leg kick. In fact, by now we should expect him to experiment in camp. After introducing a leg kick in 2016, He played around with quieting the kick in 2017…


…though that turned out to be a false alarm. The leg kick stuck around to great success. He could decide to go back to it this time around, too. Look, it would be great for Judge to reduce his career 31.6 percent strikeout rate, but not at the expense of his other skills. If he ultimately feels uncomfortable with this new approach and reverts to the leg kick, fine by me. It’s great that he’s trying to get better and fun to think about the best case scenario, but sometimes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Let’s also not forget that this change that Judge is trying is not guaranteed to succeed. His strikeout rate could be just the same as usual or potentially even worse. Guys who punch out as frequently as Judge rarely start making much more contact. Sometimes, it’s just who the hitter is and no alteration can make a difference. The only examples I can think of who improved after striking out roughly as often as Judge are Kris Bryant and Giancarlo Stanton.

Bryant fanned 30.6 percent of the time in his rookie season, but was able to drop his mark to as low as 19.2 percent in 2017 (he’s been around 22 – 23 percent otherwise). Meanwhile, Stanton dropped his near 30 percent clip to 23.6 percent in 2017, though that jumped back up in pinstripes.

It won’t be the end of the world if Judge maintains his high strikeout rates. It hasn’t slowed him down thus far in his career, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to any time soon. Without question, it would be fantastic to see him dip into the low-to-mid twenties, but that’s a lot to ask. For now, it’s still early March, so it’s fun to drool about the possibility. We won’t really know if this will work until the regular season. And that’s if he doesn’t decide to scrap it like he did a couple years ago.

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

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(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

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Two first basemen trending in opposite directions [2019 Season Preview]

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Bird. (Presswire)

First base has been a position of strength for the Yankees for almost as long as I can recall. I was a little too young to remember Don Mattingly, but I essentially have seen the team go from Tino Martinez to Jason Giambi to Mark Teixeira without many issues. Like many others, I thought Greg Bird was next in line after a stellar debut in 2015, but that’s now a distant memory. He has quite a bit of ground to make up on Luke Voit, who practically appeared out of thin air last summer and dominated.

Voit could become the actual long-term successor to Teixeira, even though there were a few seasons between the two’s careers in pinstripes. That’s not to say that all hope is lost for Bird, despite a lack of hitting and a litany of injuries in recent years. His career is still young, but Voit may have Wally Pipped him. There is technically an open competition for the position in camp, but Voit certainly has a leg up.

Can they coexist?

Even though Bird and Voit make for a natural platoon based on their handedness, Aaron Boone doesn’t envision that this season. Both players have options and can be sent to Triple-A, so the loser of the first base competition this spring could be destined for Scranton. Of course, it’s Voit’s job to lose, and understandably so. He killed it last summer after the trade while Bird floundered. The front office has made it clear that they’ve liked Voit for a while, too.

If a platoon isn’t in play, there’s only one other way the two could be on the same big league roster. One could play first while the other could be the designated hitter. Doing that would require Giancarlo Stanton to play left field, meaning that Brett Gardner would ride the bench. This would essentially make Gardner a full-time bench player, because such an alignment would likely be against right-handed pitchers. Gardner is really bad against southpaws now, so it’s not like he’d make sense to play against lefties when Bird sits.

It might not be bad for Gardner to assume the fourth outfielder role full-time, but that would indeed require Bird to re-emerge (and Voit to maintain his output). Bird’s already off to a good start this spring, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. In all likelihood, one of the two first basemen will be in Triple-A come opening day. My money is on Bird heading there.

Bird’s last gasp?

Not much has gone in Bird’s favor since the 2015 season ended. Shoulder surgery cost him his 2016 campaign. The excitement for his return in 2017 was crushed after he suffered an ankle injury in an exhibition game, which followed him throughout the year and hindered his performance. At least we have that playoff homer against Andrew Miller. 2018 was more of the same with injuries and poor performance. Bird is still 26, but it’s been a while since he’s been consistently good.

As mentioned, Bird still has options so he can (and likely will) be sent to the minors to the start the year. The Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a decision on his future with the organization yet, though it would behoove Bird to stay on the field and hit. Not just for his chances to stick with the Yankees, but for other opportunities around the league. If Voit is who he appears to be, Bird won’t get the job back, but he could impress another team enough to trade for him.

The Yankees can afford to be patient with Bird, too. He has multiple options and can’t refuse a minor league assignment as he is short of five years of service. Somehow, even though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s accumulated just over three years of major league time. If the team wants to hang on to him this season and beyond, they can. Some extended time in the minors this season might be good for Bird to regain confidence anyway.

What if Bird rakes in the Grapefruit League? He’s already off to a fast start. Even if that continues throughout the next month or so, it’ll take other circumstances to get him on the roster. As noted before, alignment would be a challenge with both him and Voit in the lineup, especially if a platoon isn’t an option. In other words, it’s going to take an injury for him to start the season in the Bronx. Even if Voit struggles in camp, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees making a judgement on Voit over a poor spring.

Voit might be really, really good

I don’t think anyone is expecting Voit to rake like he did after the trade deadline last summer (187 wRC+), but he also doesn’t appear to be some flash in the pan. The front office coveted Voit long before the deal. His minor league performance was always great and his underlying quality of contact metrics were stellar. All he really needed was a chance to capitalize on. The Yankees gave him just that.

Statcast absolutely adores Voit, and I think it’s safe to say that similar data is what attracted the Yankees to him. He was all over the batted ball leaderboards last season. How about some visual proof? I know we’re not supposed to read into anything that happens in spring training, but that home run against the Rays on Sunday was pretty awesome.

Voit pummeled that high-90s fastball from Ryan Stanek. Good to see that his Sammy Sosa hop is in mid-season form, by the way.

I’ll dive into the projections in a minute, but I should note that they don’t see him as a fluke. All systems have him as a comfortably above average hitter. One forecast in particular believes he’s one of baseball’s best hitters. It sure sounds like the Yankees knew what they were doing when they targeted him last summer.

Now, there’s always a chance that the league figures out Voit. Maybe he really is your classic Quad-A slugger that happened to run into a hot streak at the big league level. Guys who are in their late twenties with limited major league exposure don’t often become significant contributors. If he flames out over the next few months, the Yankees better hope that Bird capable. Otherwise, hello full-time first baseman DJ LeMahieu.

Projections

Voit

  • PECOTA: .280/.350/.506 (127 DRC+), 21 home runs, 2.6 WARP in 460 plate appearances
  • ZiPS: .264/.344/.474 (116 OPS+), 22 home runs, 1.9 WAR in 483 plate appearances
  • Steamer: .262/.336/.458 (115 wRC+), 19 home runs, 1.4 WAR in 449 plate appearances

Over at Baseball Prospectus, I mentioned that Voit was one of my favorite PECOTA projections for 2019. The system thinks he’s the 22nd best hitter in baseball! What a score for the front office if that’s truly the case. Even if he’s not that high up, the other projections are more than respectable. Getting this caliber of a hitter for Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos would be a remarkable heist. Even if he’s not as good as PECOTA indicates, I think we’d all be happy with the performance ZiPS and Steamer expect.

One cool thing about PECOTA are some of the player comps it spits out. 2015 Nate Freiman (DNP) and 2011 Steve Pearce (76 DRC+) are the top two guys, which isn’t exciting. However, the player who caught my eye was 2018 Jesus Aguilar. He’s Voit’s sixth-best comp, but very close to those ahead of him. Aguilar was pretty awesome last season as a 28 year-old right-handed and stocky first baseman in his first full season (135 DRC+). That description sound familiar? I wouldn’t mind Voit doing that in his age 28 year, this one.

Bird

  • PECOTA: .234/.312/.421 (88 DRC+), 7 home runs, 0.0 WARP in 193 plate appearances
  • ZiPS: .224/.317/.444 (101 OPS+), 16 home runs, 0.6 WAR in 350 plate appearances
  • Steamer: .227/.315/.435 (102 wRC+), 12 home runs, 0.3 WAR in 210 plate appearances

Once again, PECOTA deviates from the other systems, this time in the opposite direction. It’s pessimistic one of the bunch. Not that ZiPS or Steamer are optimistic, of course. He wouldn’t be worthy of much playing time even if he met the other two projections.

Interestingly enough, even though PECOTA is down on Bird, his comps are better than Voit’s. The top one is 2006 Adam LaRoche (123 DRC+). His fifth, sixth, and seventh top comps are very good too: 2012 Mitch Moreland (111 DRC+), 2007 Justin Morneau (117 DRC+), 2008 Adrian Gonzalez (132 DRC+). Sign me up for any of those seasons. Still, it seems odd to get those as some of his top comps despite a poor projection. There are some less than stellar comps in there too (Mike Jacobs and Matt LaPorta), but the good ones outnumber the bad.

Final Thoughts

I’m pretty high on Voit and think he’s going to have no issue holding off Bird. To me, it’s pretty encouraging to see a few projection systems marry up with his Statcast metrics and the Yankees’ internal evaluations. There will be some understandable skepticism considering how few career major league opportunities he’s had, but all signs point to him as a good, perhaps great, hitter.

Meanwhile, I’ve lost quite a bit of hope in Bird. Even though he’s hitting well in a handful of spring games, I don’t want to get excited again. He really hasn’t done anything productive over an extended period since 2015, which was a long while ago. Plus, I don’t have much faith in him staying healthy. I hope I’m wrong.