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River Ave. Blues » Death by Bullpen

The Yankees have a Dellin Betances-sized hole in their bullpen

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Miss you Dellin. (Michael Reaves/Getty)

At some point today, likely this morning in Tampa, Dellin Betances was scheduled to throw a simulated game. It is his second time facing hitters since being shut down with shoulder inflammation on March 19th, and, if all went well, it is reasonable to think he could begin a minor league rehab stint shortly. “We feel like he is making progress,” Aaron Boone said earlier this week.

The bullpen without Betances has yet to live up to its Super Bullpen billing. Adam Ottavino has been excellent, and Luis Cessa as been quietly solid in low-leverage mop-up innings, otherwise the bullpen owns a collective 3.97 ERA (3.28 FIP) through 12 games. The group’s 24.6% strikeout rate is a good five or six (or more) percentage points below the expectation coming into the season.

Through 12 games, there is a Betances-sized hole in the Yankees bullpen. The Yankees feel short one high-leverage reliever, someone who can face the other team’s best hitters with the game on the line. Right now, Ottavino seems to be the only guy qualified to do that. Consider:

  • Zack Britton is laboring. More baserunners (12) than swings and misses (10) is impressively bad.
  • Chad Green has a 55.6% hard-hit rate and has struck out one of the last 19 batters he’s faced.
  • Aroldis Chapman is missing velocity and has been quite hittable in the early going.
  • Tommy Kahnle has regained some velocity but he’s not back to his 2017 form.
  • Ottavino is on pace to appear in 81 games and warm up in 14 others.

The starting pitchers haven’t helped matters and the Yankees definitely need those guys to start pitching more effectively and pitching more in general. The four non-Masahiro Tanaka starters are averaging 4.1 innings per start in the early going. That can’t continue. The relievers can’t pick up that many innings each game.

Anyway, getting Betances back would not help Britton throw strikes or Green miss barrels. It would lessen the team’s reliance on them, however, at least to some degree. Dellin reclaiming the eighth inning frees up Ottavino for higher leverage work earlier in the game, and remember, the Yankees just lost two games in Houston because seventh inning leads were blown with Not Ottavino on the mound.

There are two questions with Betances. One, when is he coming back? It’s impossible to say right now. Even if today’s simulated game went well — today’s an off-day, so we won’t get a Dellin update until tomorrow — returning for next week’s Red Sox series is unlikely. Could he be back for the start of the West Coast trip on April 22nd? That would seem to give him enough time for three minor league rehab appearances. Maybe four.

And two, how effective will Betances be once he returns? Sometimes shoulder inflammation is truly nothing and the guy comes back with no ill-effects. And sometimes it lingers all season and the pitcher is never quite right. Betances coming back as something less than the high-leverage monster he’s been throughout his career would be bad news for the Yankees. Real bad news given the state of some of the other relievers in the bullpen.

Knowing the Yankees, they’ll ease Betances into things once he returns. Two or three lower leverage spots just to get his feet wet before thrusting him into big situations. I have no problem with that. A healthy and effective Betances allows the Yankees to use Ottavino earlier in the game, and also shelter Britton and Green until they turn things around. Of course, they might’ve already turned things around by time Dellin returns, but I digress.

The Yankees lost ten games when leading after five innings last season. They’ve already lost three such games this year, and their relievers have taken four losses overall. Here are some bullpen win probability numbers through 12 games:

  • WPA: -0.79 (+7.83 last year)
  • Shutdowns: 10 (153 last year)
  • Meltdowns: 11 (72 last year)

(Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase win probability at least 6%. Meltdowns are the opposite. They’re relief appearances that decrease win probability at least 6%.)

The bullpen has not only not performed as expected thus far, it is actively hurting the Yankees. Betances is one man and he alone can not fix things. The Yankees need Britton and Green to right the ship as well, but a healthy Dellin would have helped these last 12 games, and there’s an obvious need for him going forward. Clearly, there is no such thing as too many good relievers. The sooner Betances comes back and is effective, the better the Yankees will be.

Four things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees one week into the season

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This guy’s still cool. (Elsa/Getty)

The season is six days old and already we know one thing for certain about the 2019 Yankees: They stink. The stinkiness is probably only temporarily, but yeah, they stink. Losing two of three to the Orioles (!) and Tigers (!!) at home (!!!) while scoring no more than three runs in four of the six games is pretty ugly. It’s not quite the worst possible start to the season, but it’s close.

Six games in and there are some other things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees beyond their apparent inability to beat bad teams at home. It can be tricky to figure out what’s real and what’s not one week into the new year. Other times the meaningful stuff can be plainly obvious. Here are four things we’ve learned about the Yankees across their first six games of the new season.

They’ve exhausted their depth

The Yankees have already had so many injuries this season that I don’t know where they’d turn next should another player go down. I really don’t. That is especially true on the position player side. CC Sabathia could be back in next week and that means Jonathan Loaisiga will be stashed in Triple-A as an up-and-down arm. Chance Adams and Joe Harvey are also shuttle candidates.

On the position player side though, geez, the Yankees are pretty much tapped out. They’ve exhausted almost all their 40-man roster depth. Adding players to the 40-man is not necessarily a problem with Didi Gregorius, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Ben Heller available as 60-day injured list candidates. I’m referring to the caliber of player in line to be called up. It ain’t good. Look at who would be the next man up with another injury:

  • Catcher: Kyle Higashioka
  • Infield: Thairo Estrada following a lost season or Gio Urshela
  • Outfield: Billy Burns?

For what it’s worth, Mark Feinsand says Estrada is being recalled to replace Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki will become the 11th Yankee on the injury list later today. What if Greg Bird feels something in his ankle again? Or James Paxton or Masahiro Tanaka go on their annual two-week breather? The injury problem might get worse. Other than Tulowitzki, the guys you’d expect to get hurt haven’t gotten hurt yet.

After six games and seven days, injuries are the story of the season for the Yankees. They’ve lost core players for long stretches of time. They’ve had to call up Clint Frazier, a player deemed in need of Triple-A at-bats, and Tyler Wade, a player deemed not good enough for the Opening Day roster, and there’s not much depth remaining behind them with Triple-A Scranton. Hopefully the injuries pass and the Yankees stay afloat. Right now, we already know they’re stretched very thing.

They need outside help

This ties into the previous point. The Yankees can not sit around waiting for their injured guys to get healthy. Aaron Hicks still has not resumed baseball activities and Miguel Andujar is potentially looking at season-ending surgery. Even if he avoids the knife, Andujar’s best case scenario is being weeks away from rejoining the Yankees. Tulowitzki? Wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t see him again this year.

The last few games have shown there are only so many Mike Tauchman and Tyler Wade at-bats one team can take. Trading for an infielder already feels imperative. Someone to take over a position full-time and push Wade to the bench. Todd Frazier? Asdrubal Cabrera? Starlin Castro? There are some rental salary dump candidates sitting on the market. The Blue Jays are already trading guys (Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar). Maybe other teams are willing to move players.

Point is, the Yankees have been hit exceptionally hard by injuries, and many of their top position players are a long ways from returning. Sticking with the in-house replacements is a viable option, sure, but it’s not a good one. The longer the Yankees wait for their guys to return without adding help, the more likely it is they’ll tumble in the standings and face a big uphill climb later this summer. That is apparent six games into the year.

Ottavino is the Moment of Truth™ reliever

This guy’s cool too. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Even with bigger names and higher priced pitchers in the bullpen, it is clear the Yankees have identified Adam Ottavino as the guy they want on the mound in the game’s biggest situations. Ottavino has appeared in four of six games so far and in all four games he entered into what can be considered the highest leverage moment. A recap:

  • March 28th: Runner on second, two outs, Yankees up four in the sixth.
  • March 30th: Runner on first, two outs, Yankees down one in the sixth.
  • April 1st: Start of eighth with Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera due up, Yankees up two.
  • April 2nd: Start of eighth with Castellanos and Cabrera due up, score tied.

The Yankees beat up on the Orioles pretty good on Opening Day, so that March 28th appearance wasn’t super high-leverage, but it was the only time in the game it felt like the O’s had something going. Look at those last two games though. Aaron Boone matched Ottavino up against the other team’s best hitters in the late innings of a close game. Textbook relief ace stuff.

With Dellin Betances sidelined, I assumed Zack Britton would take over the eighth inning almost by default. He’s the former shutdown closer and he signed the big contract over the winter, and the Yankees sure do love set bullpen roles. Instead, Ottavino is penciled in as the high-leverage guy, either in a mid-inning fireman role or matching up against the other team’s top hitters. The rest of the bullpen falls in place around him.

I imagine Betances will reclaim the eighth inning role once he returns and is back up to speed. When he’s right, he’s someone the Yankees can throw out there against any three hitters in a close game. That will free Ottavino up for fireman/matchup work earlier in the game. Until then, he is the interim relief ace. The team’s intentions with Ottavino are no mystery after only four appearances.

LeMahieu’s going to be just fine at third base

I had a feeling this would be the case. LeMahieu has excellent defensive tools (hands, range, arms) and he’s a smart, instinctual player. The only thing he lacks at third base is experience. Even without it, LeMahieu has looked very natural at the hot corner in the early going. He’s made good plays coming in on weak grounders and also going both right and left. It’s hard to tell he’s new to the position, isn’t it?

Andujar’s injury means LeMahieu will be The Man at third base for the foreseeable future. It’ll be at least a few weeks. Hopefully Andujar’s shoulder responds well to treatment and rehab and he can avoid season-ending surgery. Even if he does, he’s going to miss several weeks, and the Yankees have a quality third base replacement in LeMahieu. Defensively, he can more than handle it. LeMahieu’s already shown he’s an asset at the hot corner.

Danny Farquhar has a chance to win an Opening Day bullpen spot and he’s worth rooting for

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(Presswire)

The Yankees were arguably the most active team in baseball this offseason and, for a little while there in January, they made a free agent signing a week. Troy Tulowitzki one week, Zack Britton the next week, DJ LeMahieu the week after that, then Adam Ottavino the week after that. Then they capped it all off by trading Sonny Gray.

Those few weeks were quite busy, and buried in all that activity was a minor league signing that represented so much more. The Yankees inked journeyman righty Danny Farquhar to a minor league contract on January 21st, eleven months after he collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox. He suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage after an aneurysm ruptured.

Farquhar spent three weeks in the hospital after collapsing in the dugout and he’s said he felt he could’ve returned to the mound last September, but decided not to push it. He took it slow during the offseason and eventually the Yankees scooped him up as a depth piece, and they had a protective liner custom made to fit under his cap.

“To think ten months ago I would be here, you don’t know. I am extraordinarily thankful,” said Farquhar last week, during a press conference following his first Spring Training bullpen session. “… It’s my drive, my passion. Baseball is something I’ve been doing since I was five years old. I want to keep playing until someone won’t put a uniform on me.”

Watch the video of his press conference and scroll through his Instagram feed and you see someone who is so very clearly overjoyed to be playing baseball again. Farquhar’s still a young man, he turned only 32 this past weekend, and he has a wife and three young children. He nearly lost his life last year and now he’s back at the park, doing what he loves. It is impossible not to root for this guy.

Does Farquhar have a chance to crack this bullpen? Yes, he does. I wouldn’t call it likely but he does because there are two open bullpen spots. Farquhar says he’s trying not thinking about that — “I’m happy to be in a uniform and playing. I try not to look at the big picture too much because then you get overwhelmed and caught up in stuff,” he said — but gosh, it has to be in the back of his mind, no? It’s only natural.

Obviously Farquhar’s performance in camp will be the biggest factor in determining whether he gets a bullpen spot. The arm strength is looking good but we have to see how he fares against hitters — “Hitters will always let you know what your stuff is. I’m curious to have that feedback,” he said — because, at the end of the day, this is a guy who hasn’t pitched competitively since April. There’s bound to be some rust.

There are a few things beyond spring performance that Farquhar has going for him. First of all, he has a history with the organization. The Yankees liked Farquhar enough that they claimed him off waivers in June 2012 — Farquhar said he and Dellin Betances were roommates with Double-A Trenton — and while they traded him for Ichiro Suzuki a month later, that was business. The MLB roster takes priority over a Double-A bullpen prospect.

Secondly, Farquhar is a strikeout pitcher and the Yankees love strikeouts. He’s thrown at least 30 innings in five different MLB seasons and in three of those five he posted a 27.0% strikeout rate or better. (His career strikeout rate is 26.9%.) Relatedly, Farquhar is an analytics guy. He told James Fegan (subs. req’d) the Rays got him into numbers during his time with Tampa and he’s kinda run with it.

“The fastball has a thing called carry,” Farquhar said. “My fastball has an average of 10 or 11 inches of carry — and this is what the Rays told me — the average big league fastball is nine inches of carry, so it’s a couple inches above that. Then you have the kill zone which is the one that gets murdered most of the time by the hitters, and that’s eight inches of carry. That’s the one where you don’t want to be no matter what the pitch is. That’s not to say that every pitch with that carry level is going to be hit over the fence, but a majority of them get hit for extra-base hits. And then you have the changeup, I think mine sits between three and four, so it comes out the same but there’s separation in the pitch.”

Not coincidentally, Farquhar is a spin rate guy and the Yankees love pitchers who can spin the ball. Over the last two years his low-to-mid-90s four-seamer averaged 2,372 rpm, better than the 2,263 rpm league average. Add in his reputation for being a good clubhouse guy — “He’s already brought something to us just from the energy he brings to the park every day,” said Aaron Boone to Dan Martin — and Farquhar has some things going for him.

Of course, we are talking about a pitcher who was just okay (4.20 ERA and 4.07 FIP) in his most recent full MLB season, and a guy returning from a serious medical condition. The bullpen sessions look good but those are only bullpen sessions. Once Grapefruit League games begin this weekend, it could become clear quickly that Farquhar is rusty and will need Triple-A time before he’s ready to contribute to a big league roster.

“No fear or trepidation yet,” Farquhar said to Mark Didtler. “I haven’t had any hurdles to jump, but I’m sure those hurdles will come. Honestly, it’s just been working out and throwing more than anything. Haven’t had to face a batter. Haven’t given up a home run yet. So, I think there’s a lot more steps that I still have to go through.”

Don’t mistake this for a charity minor league signing. Farquhar’s been a full-time big leaguer since 2013 and he’s pitched in high-leverage situations, most notably saving 16 games for the 2013 Mariners and setting up for the 2016-17 Rays. The strikeouts, spin rates, and analytic slant are all things the Yankees value. This is the second time they’ve acquired him, remember. He’s been on their radar for a while.

The Yankees signed Farquhar because they believe he could help them win games at some point. If not right away in one of those final two bullpen spots, then later in the season, once he gets his bearings in Triple-A. No matter what happens on the field, Farquhar is a feel-good story and someone worth rooting for. This is the best kind of comeback story.

The Yankees already have a reclamation project in the bullpen in Tommy Kahnle

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(Presswire)

The Yankees reportedly hope to add two relievers between now and Opening Day. Two relievers to replace David Robertson and Zach Britton, and hey, it is entirely possible they will re-sign Robertson and/or Britton. Even with Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder in tow, there’s still room for more quality relievers in the bullpen. Always and forever.

Among the in-house bullpen candidates is Tommy Kahnle, who the Yankees acquired prior to the 2017 trade deadline for two reasons. One, to help their 2017 postseason push. That big trade with the White Sox was a watershed moment. The Yankees went into the day of the trade having lost 21 of their last 30 games (for real). The front office said forget about that. We’re getting you guys the help you need and we’re going for it.

And two, to help them in 2018, 2019, and 2020 as well. Kahnle was in the middle of a dynamite season and he came with three full seasons of control beyond 2017. That was huge. Kahnle was a short and long-term addition. Joe Girardi never really found a set regular season role for Kahnle following the trade but he was a monster in the postseason …

… and there was reason to believe Kahnle would again be a key contributor in 2018. It didn’t happen. He struggled early, got hurt, then was sent to Triple-A. He threw 23.1 innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP), and while his strikeout rate (28.0%) was good, his walk rate was not (14.0%). Kahnle also had a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 34.6% strikeouts and 10.3% walks in 24.2 innings in Triple-A. He was bad. Real bad.

Even if the Yankees add two relievers before the start of the regular season, there are still open bullpen spots to be had, and it stands to reason Kahnle will have a chance to win one of them in Spring Training. He is out of minor league options, so he can’t go back to Triple-A, but I don’t think that’ll guarantee him a roster spot. The Yankees will take the best arms regardless of roster status. Three things about Kahnle keep crossing my mind.

1. He’ll be healthy next season. At least in theory. Kahnle spent seven weeks on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation last year he never looked quite right after that. Or before that, really. His velocity was down coming out of Spring Training …

… and I think at least part of his control issues stemmed from Kahnle muscling up and throwing max effort to generate velocity. His average fastball checked in at 98.11 mph in 2017. In 2018, he topped out at 97.96 mph. Kahnle’s shoulder was compromised and it showed in his velocity, and maybe in his control as well.

“I was hurt. My shoulder all year was not right,” said Kahnle to Brendan Kuty in November. “I tried to pitch through it, which made it worse. By the time I got rest, I wasn’t really that right. Before that, struggling didn’t help mentally as well. I was just all over the place last year … Right now, it feels great. I’m just trying to get my strength up again and hopefully the velocity will spike back up when I come into spring.”

With any luck, an offseason of rest will get Kahnle’s shoulder right — “Not being on the playoff roster kind of gave me a head start on that. So I got the extra two weeks,” he said — and allow him to again generate that upper-90s velocity we saw in 2017. Kahnle is only 29 years old. He’s not at that point where you’d normally expect age-related decline. A proper offseason will hopefully get him back to where he needs to be.

2. His spin rates are okay. For what it’s worth, Kahnle was still able to spin his fastball and changeup last season. The velocity wasn’t there, but the spin was, and that’s not nothing. Even in 2017, he had an average fastball spin rate and that was true again last season. His changeup spin rate was actually one of the lowest in baseball at 1,391 rpm last year and that’s a good thing. You want low spin on a changeup. It creates that tumble down and out of the zone.

Why is this important? Because we’re looking for signs of 2017 Tommy Kahnle. Had his fastball lost spin while his changeup gained spin, thus blending the two pitches more closely together, it would’ve been a significant red flag. Velocity and spin rate declines are very scary. Losing one or the other is still scary, but not as scary as losing both, and theoretically an indication things could be fixed going forward. A little more arm strength could have Kahnle right back to where he was a year ago.

3. The Yankees must think he’s salvageable. Otherwise they would’ve non-tendered him last month. A non-tender would’ve been a clean break. Kahnle’s projected $1.5M salary is nothing, so perhaps that saved his roster spot, but the Yankees did non-tender pre-arbitration Alfredo Aceves back in the day. They were so unconvinced Aceves’ back would hold up that they cut him loose. The Yankees could’ve done the same with Kahnle and didn’t.

Remember, the Yankees have a bit of a 40-man roster crunch this offseason, and every dollar matters in this luxury tax era. Cutting Kahnle would’ve cleared a roster spot and saved some cash. Instead, the Yankees at least indicated a willingness to carry him into Spring Training — they could still designate Kahnle for assignment at some point this offseason, of course — which is telling. They think there’s something here to reclaim.

* * *

Each offseason teams (and fans, at that) scour the league for reclamation projects and bounceback candidates. Every team wants to acquire someone when their stock is down and help them get back to their peak. The Yankees already have a reclamation project on their roster in Kahnle. No need to make a trade or place a waiver claim or sign a free agent contract. He’s a classic reclamation project, and he’s already a Yankee.

My guess is the Yankees intend to give Kahnle a long look in Spring Training — Spring Training is full of lies, but we should know fairly quickly whether Kahnle’s velocity is back once Grapefruit League play begins — to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, because 2017 Kahnle was really good. The Yankees are nothing if not patient. They stuck with Chasen Shreve longer than they perhaps should’ve, and my hunch is Kahnle will get a long leash as well. The talent to dominate is there and it’s worth seeing if that guy returns in 2019.

“I want to be able to come in and prove that I’m still that guy that they saw two seasons ago,” Kahnle said to Kuty. “That’s what I’m going to be working toward, getting back to what I was the year before.”

The rotation is not the only part of the Yankees’ pitching staff that needs help this offseason

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These two need some help. (Brian Blanco/Getty)

The offseason is a month old now and for the most part we’ve spent these last few weeks focusing on the rotation. The Yankees came into the winter needing three starters — two, really, since a CC Sabathia reunion was inevitable — and they’ve since added James Paxton. They remain in the mix for guys like Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, and Corey Kluber. Another starter is coming at some point.

The Yankees also need to find a Didi Gregorius replacement this offseason, and, although it can be easy to overlook, they need some bullpen help as well. They want two relievers, which makes sense because David Robertson and Zach Britton are both free agents, and also because the Yankees value a deep and powerful bullpen. It has been a priority the last few years and understandably so.

At the moment the Yankees only have four locks for what figures to be an eight-man bullpen. I don’t like it, but eight-man bullpens are now the norm around baseball, especially in the Bronx. We can drop the team’s in-house 40-man roster bullpen options into four buckets:

  • Locks: Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder
  • Out-of-Options Guys: Parker Bridwell, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle
  • Shuttle Candidates: Chance Adams, Joe Harvey, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Long Shots: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo

Abreu and Acevedo are prospects still in need of development, especially Abreu, so I can’t see them being serious bullpen candidates early next season. Adams and Loaisiga are also prospects with development remaining — Loaisiga needs innings more than anything — but I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry either guy in the bullpen if they believe they’re among their best relief options.

The out of minor league options guys could all be gone before Spring Training. It’s extremely unlikely, but it is possible. German is the best of the bunch to me. I don’t think that’s enough to guarantee him a spot on the 40-man roster through the rest of the offseason, let along an Opening Day bullpen slot. Up-and-down guys like Harvey and Tarpley are, well, up-and-down guys. Tarpley could carve out a role and stick around, sure. It is hardly a lock though.

Also, looking at the incumbent relievers, there are reasons to want that extra depth. Chapman pitched through a knee problem all season. Betances is awesome but that “you don’t know what you’re going to get from one appearance to the next” element still exists. Green wasn’t as good in 2018 as he was in 2017. Holder? Who knows. He was really good this year but I’m not sure he has the stuff to be a truly dominant high-leverage guy.

Point is, there are some definite openings in the bullpen right now and it is not a minor consideration. Not given the way baseball is played these days and definitely not with the way the Yankees run their pitching staff. Sabathia doesn’t pitch deep into games often and Paxton tends to miss time each season, for example, which puts that much more strain in the bullpen. The hook is always quick with fill-in starters like Cessa and German.

Back in the day teams needed a closer and a setup man, and then they just kinda filled out the bullpen with extra arms. That isn’t the case anymore. The Yankees have four quality holdover relievers, so the makings of a strong bullpen are there, but these days you need that reliable fifth and sixth reliever too. And, ideally, Holder would be the fifth or even the sixth guy in the bullpen, not the fourth. Two setup caliber relievers would be welcome.

There is still a lot of offseason to go and the Yankees need another starter as well as a Gregorius replacement, first and foremost. They also need bullpen help and I don’t mean a last guy in the ‘pen type. The Yankees lost two high-end relievers in Robertson and Britton — they could still bring them back, but you know what I mean — and, if they’re not replaced capably, the team’s entire dynamic changes. A strong bullpen isn’t a luxury nowadays. It’s a necessity.

Last postseason Dellin Betances was unusable, now he’s an indispensable part of the bullpen

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(Tim Bradbury/Getty)

What a difference a year makes. Last year around this time Dellin Betances was persona non grata, essentially unusable in the postseason because his control had deteriorated down the stretch. The Yankees had to cover 8.2 innings with their bullpen in the 2017 Wild Card Game and Betances never even warmed up. Chasen Shreve warmed up. Betances did not.

This season, after an offseason of trade (and even non-tender) speculation, Betances reemerged as a dominant bullpen arm, throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) during the regular season. His 42.3% strikeout rate was a career high. His 9.6% walk rate was far better than last year (16.0%) and below his career average (11.0%). With Aroldis Chapman’s knee having been an issue in the second half, Betances was the team’s best reliever during the regular season.

Dellin’s postseason role has been made clear after only three games. He was the eighth inning guy during the regular season, and now, in October, Aaron Boone is using him as a middle of the order specialist. Consider his two appearances thus far:

  • Wild Card Game: Entered with the Yankees up 2-0, runners on first and second with no outs in the fifth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.
  • ALDS Game Two: Entered with the Yankees up 3-1, bases empty with no outs in the sixth inning, and the 2-3-4 hitters due up.

“We wanted Dellin for that part of the order. So I was willing to go to him obviously as early as we were,” said Boone after the Wild Card Game. “Dellin is a stud …  I told him before the game, you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of lineup that I want you facing in that spot.”

Betances has gotten six of the biggest outs of the year so far. That’s not an unreasonable thing to say. The biggest and most impactful out is probably Luis Severino striking out Marcus Semien with the bases loaded to end the fourth inning in the Wild Card Game. After that, the biggest outs are Betances in the fifth inning of the Wild Card Game and Betances in the sixth inning of ALDS Game Two, right? Middle of the order with a two-run lead? That’s huge.

According to championship probability added, which is essentially win probability added on steroids (WPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a win, CPA tells you how much closer a player brings you to a championship), Betances has been one of the most impactful pitchers in baseball this season. The 2018 pitcher CPA leaderboard:

  1. Kyle Freeland: +0.089
  2. Clayton Kershaw: +0.052
  3. Josh Hader: +0.050
  4. Dellin Betances: +0.046
  5. Cole Hamels: +0.043

CPA covers the regular season and postseason. Everything a player does throughout the year either helps or hurts his team’s chances of winning the World Series. Betances was the primary eighth inning guy during the regular season and he racked up a lot of high-leverage outs. In the postseason, his role has changed a bit, in that he’s being asked to get the biggest outs regardless of inning. It’s pretty awesome. I love the way Boone has used Dellin so far.

Surely, having guys like Chapman and Zach Britton and David Robertson in reserve for the late innings makes it easier to use Betances in the middle innings. Boone identified a high-leverage situation, put his best reliever in the game, and it helped the Yankees win. Betances retired all six batters he faced in the Wild Card Game and retired the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches in ALDS Game Two. (He did allow a run in the next inning.)

“It feels good,” said Betances following Game Two, when asked how to it felt to have an important role this postseason (video link). “Like I said last year, I felt like I wasn’t contributing to the team the way I wanted to. I feels good to go out there and get some great outs.”

The last few years Betances saw his performance slip in the second half, particularly in September. Last year it was especially bad. I always kinda assumed at least part of it was fatigue. Betances was a multi-inning guy for a few years and that takes a toll on you. This year, there was no second half slip. Dellin remained effective all year, so much so that he’s now being asked to get the biggest outs in October. That’s a game-changer. It really is. He’s so good when right.

As good as the bullpen was last season and last postseason, it was not as deep as this year’s bullpen. Joe Girardi leaned heavily on Robertson and Chapman last postseason, with Green and Tommy Kahnle filling in the gaps. This year Boone has Chapman in the ninth, Robertson and Britton as trusted late-inning guys, plus Green to fill in the gaps, plus Betances as what amounts to that middle of the order specialist. Girardi didn’t have this Betances last year.

Thanks to built-in off-days, the Yankees are especially dangerous with their bullpen this postseason. Betances went two innings in the Wild Card Game and two innings in ALDS Game Two, then was able to rest during the off-day and be available for the next game. That doesn’t happen during the regular season. The presence of guys like Robertson and Britton allow Boone to be aggressive with Dellin in the middle innings, which he’s done so far this postseason, and Betances has responded by getting some of the biggest outs of the year already. It’s the polar opposite of last postseason.

Regardless of inning, Zach Britton should face the middle of the A’s lineup in the Wild Card Game

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(Al Bello/Getty)

Oddly enough, one lingering question going into tonight’s Wild Card Game is who’s going to close for the Yankees? It’s a question rather than a problem. The Yankees have about five relievers who could handle the ninth inning, if necessary. We just don’t know who Aaron Boone will use in a save situation tonight.

Since returning from his month-long stint on the disabled list Aroldis Chapman has pitched mostly in the seventh and eighth innings as he works to get back into a groove. His first outing back was a mess. Three runs in two-thirds of an inning and he was all over the place. In four games since, Chapman has not allowed a hit, and he’s struck out eight of 13 batters. That’ll work.

Zach Britton has filled in at closer recently and he’s been excellent, though in two games against the Red Sox the defense refused to turn double plays behind him. Britton has allowed two earned runs in his last 17 appearances and 17.2 innings. Opponents hit .145/.206/.194 against him in those 17.2 innings. The further he’s gotten from the Achilles injury, the better he’s been. A graph:

Britton did not have a normal Spring Training following that Achilles injury. He’s gradually regained velocity on his trademark sinker and, as that’s happened, his ground ball rate has climbed. Britton posted a 77.8% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That is both outrageously good and right in line with his 77.7% ground ball rate from 2015-17. That’s what Britton does. He gets ground balls.

“Arm-wise, I can’t tell you how great my arm feels compared to any other year since I’ve been in the majors,” said Britton to Dan Martin during yesterday’s workout. “Maybe when I was 18 in the minors. I think the time off and wasn’t able to work out and I just rested helped.”

As noted this morning, Aaron Boone has said he’s open to letting Britton close in the postseason. It kinda depends how Chapman felt and looked as he returned from the knee injury, and, aside from that first appearance, Chapman was lights out. The triple-digit velocity wasn’t there, but he used his slider effectively and pitched very well, including in a save situation Saturday.

My hunch is the Yankees want Chapman to close in the postseason. They want him to be the guy at the end of games, which would free up Britton to pitch in other situations. Marc Carig wrote a great piece about the tools the Yankees use to determine bullpen matchups recently. It’s behind the paywall, so I can’t give away too much, but this part stuck out to me:

The concept itself is not new. There’s no shortage of publicly-available data to expose which hitters might have trouble against cutters buried in on the hands, or two-seamers that nick the corners. But the Yankees have used their blend of data to tailor those projections. With their tools, it’s possible to estimate a hitters’ performance not against just two-seam fastballs in general, but two-seam fastballs thrown by Britton, or curveballs thrown by Robertson, or sliders thrown by Chapman. Specific velocity and spin is taken into account and matched up to a hitters’ bat path, which can also be precisely measured.

Given that information, computers can simulate an expected result. From there, game plans can be formulated, strategies mapped out, scenarios anticipated. If they choose, pitchers can use those insights in their own preparation. Fearing overload, many of the Yankees’ relievers prefer to steer clear. But since coming from the Orioles, Britton has embraced the data, which he called far more detailed than what was available to him in Baltimore. In some cases, the projections have contradicted his instincts. In others, they have only reinforced the game plan he had already formulated.

Pretty cool! I remember reading something last year that explained the Indians essentially simulated and projected Edwin Encarnacion’s season before signing him. They used all the Trackman data and all sorts of neat stuff to map out the schedule, and the pitchers Encarnacion might face, and the possible weather patterns. They baked all that into the cake, projected Encarnacion’s production, and used it to determine whether he was worth signing. And, obviously, he was.

According to Carig, the Yankees do something similar with their bullpen matchups. They project how their relievers, with their individual stuff, match up against specific hitters. It’s pretty cool. Ultimately, it’s up to the pitcher to perform. The system may say David Robertson is the best matchup against Khris Davis in tonight’s Wild Card Game, but if Robertson hangs a curveball, Davis will hit it to the moon. Make the most informed decision and hope it all works out on the field, basically.

Anyway, I mention this because it seems possible the best way to use Britton tonight will be against the middle of the Athletics lineup, rather than as the closer. Maybe the middle of the lineup comes up in the ninth and this all works out nice and easy. But what if they come up in the seventh inning in a one-run game? Or in the eighth? The A’s have several extreme fly ball and home run hitters in their lineup. Their standard middle of the order:

3. Jed Lowrie: 33.2% grounders and 23 homers
4. Khris Davis: 35.3% grounders and 48 homers
5. Matt Olson: 35.9% grounders and 29 homers

One-hundred-and-forty players had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title this year. Among those 140 players Lowrie had the seventh lowest ground ball rate, Davis had the 20th lowest ground ball rate, and Olson had the 25th lowest ground ball rate. They are three of the most extreme fly ball hitters in baseball. Fly balls tend to be rewarded at Yankee Stadium.

Britton, meanwhile, is an extreme ground ball pitcher. The most extreme ground ball pitcher in baseball when he’s on and he’s been on these last few weeks. The matchup makes perfect sense on paper. The Yankees should use their very good ground ball reliever against the very good fly ball hitters in the middle of the A’s lineup. Right? Right. Maybe it doesn’t work out. Maybe Britton leaves up a pitch up and gets burned. Or maybe the A’s beat him with ground ball singles. It’s baseball. You can do everything right and still get beat.

What does the Yankees’ proprietary matchup system say about Britton vs. Lowrie/Davis/Olson? Beats me. I’d love to know. Here are three heat maps showing where each guy hits the ball the hardest — by that I mean fly balls or line drives with a 95 mph exit velocity or better — against left-handed pitchers. It’s Lowrie, Davis, and Olson from left-to-right (click to embiggen):

If you’re a lefty, you need to keep the ball down against the switch-hitting Lowrie. Against the right-handed hitting Davis, the best spot for a lefty is down and in. Elevate the ball too much on the outer half and he’ll drive it the other way. Olson is a left-handed hitter. Looks like a left-handed pitcher has to pitch him away. Britton and his sinker appear to be a good matchup candidate against those three. Perhaps the Yankees see it differently.

We still don’t know who will close for the Yankees tonight and it’s not because they lack options. I think they want it to be Chapman, but, if he’s not where he needs to be following the knee injury, it could be Britton. Boone’s bullpen usage will not happen on a whim. There’s a lot that goes into these decisions, and it’s possible Britton is most valuable to the Yankees as a middle of the A’s lineup specialist tonight, rather than as a closer. And, if that is the case, it won’t matter whether he pitches the seventh or eighth or ninth, as long as he faces the right hitters.