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River Ave. Blues » Brady Lail » Page 2

Projecting the Yankees’ 2018 Opening Day roster

March 15, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Wade. (Presswire)

Two weeks from today the Yankees will open the 2018 regular season at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays. Spring Training has gone well so far. The injuries have been kept to a minimum, and the Yankees addressed their two biggest roster questions (second and third bases) with a trade (Brandon Drury) and a free agent signing (Neil Walker). Knock on wood, it has been a good camp so far.

As things stand, the Opening Day roster is mostly set. Jacoby Ellsbury’s oblique injury and Clint Frazier’s concussion complicate the bench a bit, otherwise I count 22 of 25 roster spots already claimed. I suppose another surprise signing could go down at any moment, and of course injuries can change things, but right now, this is the Opening Day roster:

CATCHER INFIELDERS OUTFIELDERS STARTERS RELIEVERS
Sanchez 1B Bird Gardner Gray CL Chapman
2B Walker Hicks Montgomery Betances
SS Gregorius Judge Sabathia Green
3B Drury Stanton Severino Kahnle
Tanaka Robertson
BENCH DISABLED LIST
Warren
C Romine ??? Ellsbury ???
IF Torreyes ??? Frazier

Ellsbury has started some light baseball activities, though time is running out and he’s probably not going to be ready for Opening Day. “We’re probably getting into that range where we’re butting up against it,” said Aaron Boone to Bryan Hoch earlier this week. As for Frazier, he’s still experiencing symptoms and things are moving slow. He’s not going to be ready for Opening Day. No way, no how.

So, with Ellsbury and Frazier sidelined, the Yankees have three open Opening Day roster spots. One reliever and two bench players seems likely, though two relievers and one bench player is possible as well. Eight-man bullpens are increasingly becoming a the norm these days. Let’s talk about those last few unoccupied Opening Day roster spots.

1. Shreve is likely making the bullpen. Yeah, one bullpen spot is open, but it’s really not. Chasen Shreve has been on the veteran reliever “brought along slowly” plan this spring, not the roster hopeful “you’re going to pitch a lot and you need to impress to make the team” plan. Shreve is out of minor league options and there’s almost no chance he slips through waivers unclaimed. As the seventh guy in the bullpen, Shreve is fine. He misses bats, he doesn’t have a platoon split, and he can go two innings at a time if necessary. Shreve’s going to be on the roster. Get ready for it.

2. Who’s the backup outfielder? Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all figure to be in the starting lineup most days between the three outfield spots and DH. That means the Yankees need an outfielder on the bench. Gardner can back up center field, so the reserve outfielder needn’t be center field capable. Would be nice though. The outfield candidates still in big league camp:

Tyler Austin
Estevan Florial
Billy McKinney
Jace Peterson
Shane Robinson
Tyler Wade

Florial isn’t making the Opening Day roster. He’s going back to the minors, probably High-A but maybe Double-A. Austin is an emergency outfielder more than someone you want to play in the outfield intentionally. He’s a pretty bad defender in the corners. I’d rule him out as a backup outfielder option. Austin could still make the Opening Day roster! But not as the reserve outfielder.

That leaves McKinney, Peterson, Robinson, and Wade. Both McKinney and Wade have impressed this spring. Peterson and Robinson not so much. McKinney is a natural corner outfielder who can fill in at first base, though his experience is limited at the position. Wade is a natural infielder who the Yankees started to expose to the outfield two years ago. He started a handful of games in left and right fields during his big league cameo last year.

I see two reasons to believe McKinney will be the bench outfielder on Opening Day. One, he is on the 40-man roster. That is not insignificant. Peterson and Robinson are not on the 40-man roster and adding them means cutting someone, likely a young player given the state of the 40-man. I don’t think the Yankees want to do that. I suppose Frazier could be a 60-day DL candidate, so maybe the Yankees can open a 40-man spot that way, though it’s too early to say.

And two, Wade hasn’t played the outfield at all this spring! That’s kind of a big deal. Wade is on the 40-man, so he has that going for him, but he has limited outfield experience as it is and the Yankees haven’t played him out there at all during Grapefruit League play. I suppose they could put him through an outfield crash course before Opening Day, but that seems un-Yankee-like. All that points to McKinney and his Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed bat making the Opening Day roster. Fun!

McKinney. (Presswire)

3. So what happens with the final open roster spot? Reliever or bench player, bench player or reliever. You can make a case for both. You really can. The April schedule is not as pitching staff friendly as it has been in previous years. The Yankees can’t skip their fifth starter at all in April. Not once, unless they get rained out or something. Because of that, carrying an eighth reliever as the pitchers ease into things might not be a bad idea.

At the same time, eight relievers almost always feels like overkill. Domingo German sat in the bullpen for long stretches of time as the eighth reliever last season. He was on the MLB roster from June 15th to July 16th and he pitched four times. Four times in a month! Maybe things will be different in April because it’s early in the season and every team tries to make sure their pitchers don’t do too much, too soon. Here are the possible eighth reliever candidates in camp:

Luis Cessa
Gio Gallegos
Domingo German
David Hale
Ben Heller
Jonathan Holder
Brady Lail
Wade LeBlanc

Can’t see Hale, Lail, or LeBlanc making it. They’re Triple-A depth arms and it is too early in the year to dip that far down the depth chart. None of them are on the 40-man roster and I don’t think the Yankees want to cut someone to carry an eighth reliever this early in the season. Not when Cessa, Gallegos, German, Heller, and Holder are all on the 40-man and likely to outpitch Hale, Lail, and LeBlanc anyway.

My personal preference would be German or Heller as the eighth reliever, if the Yankees decide to go that route. I am also curious to see what Cessa could do as a full-time reliever. That all said, I expect the Yankees to carry a fourth bench player come Opening Day, not an eighth reliever. They could always adjust on the fly if another reliever is needed early in the season. Here are the remaining bench player candidates:

Miguel Andujar
Tyler Austin
Estevan Florial
Kyle Higashioka
Jace Peterson
Shane Robinson
Tyler Wade

We ruled out Florial, Peterson, and Robinson earlier. There’s no need for a third catcher either, so sorry Higgy. The Yankees wouldn’t use Andujar as a bench player. He’ll go to Triple-A Scranton and play everyday. Realistically, the final bench spot comes down to Austin and Wade now that Adam Lind has been released. Wade has had the better spring and he’s more versatile, plus he’s fast. Austin would be a right-handed power bench bat and a natural platoon partner for Greg Bird.

The Walker signing means the Yankees don’t absolutely need a backup first baseman on the bench. Walker can back up Bird and hey, so can McKinney. Wade is the more functional piece. He can play the infield, play the outfield, and run like hell. Dingers are cool, but the Yankees have enough right-handed hitters who hit dingers. Aside from back up first base, Austin doesn’t do much. Wade can do more things. Plus the Yankees seem to love him. That can’t hurt. I think Wade makes the bench over Austin.

* * *

Alright, so after all that, this is the projected Opening Day roster at the moment:

CATCHER INFIELDERS OUTFIELDERS STARTERS RELIEVERS
Sanchez 1B Bird Gardner Gray CL Chapman
2B Walker Hicks Montgomery Betances
SS Gregorius Judge Sabathia Green
3B Drury Stanton Severino Kahnle
Tanaka Robertson
BENCH DISABLED LIST
Shreve
C Romine OF McKinney Ellsbury Warren
IF Torreyes UTIL Wade Frazier

If Ellsbury does indeed begin the season on the disabled list, Gardner and Walker would be the only position players on the Opening Day roster over 30. (Austin Romine would be the only other position player over 28.) If Ellsbury manages to get healthy, I think McKinney would go back to Triple-A, not Wade. No need for two lefty hitting outfielders on the bench. Maybe in the NL, but not the AL. Even after the Drury and Walker pick-ups, it really seems like the Yankees want Wade on the roster. And hey, why wouldn’t they? He’s pretty rad.

There are still two weeks to go before Opening Day and that is an eternity in baseball. Lots can change between now and then. For the most part though, the Yankees’ Opening Day roster seems set aside from the final three spots. Shreve is a pretty safe bet to get that final bullpen spot. The Yankees have been talking up Wade all spring, and his versatility and speed could make him quite valuable, so I think he’s making it too. McKinney feels like a classic “sneak onto the Opening Day roster thanks to an injury” player. Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next two weeks, because that projected Opening Day roster is awfully exciting.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Ben Heller, Billy McKinney, Brady Lail, Chasen Shreve, Clint Frazier, David Hale, Domingo German, Estevan Florial, Gio Gallegos, Jace Peterson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Holder, Kyle Higashioka, Luis Cessa, Miguel Andujar, Shane Robinson, Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Wade LeBlanc

Sorting out the projected 2018 Triple-A Scranton roster

February 8, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Adams. (Times Leader)

These days, moreso than ever before, teams need more than 25 players to get through the 162-game season and contend for a postseason spot. Lots more than 25 players. Last season 1,351 different players appeared in at least one big league game, an average of 45 players per team. The Yankees used 51 players last year, tied for the eighth most in baseball. The Mariners led the way with 61. The Indians and Rockies somehow used only 41 each.

The remainder of the 40-man roster is essentially a taxi squad. Teams shuttle players in and out not only to help cover for injuries or poor performance, but to get matchups too. Facing a team with a lefty heavy lineup? Might as well bring up an extra lefty reliever for the weekend. Need another platoon bat because you’re going to see five right-handed starters the next five days? Call up a lefty with some pop. It happens every single day across the league.

The Yankees have built a very deep farm system and so many of their top prospects are close to the big leagues. My annual top 30 prospects list will be posted tomorrow and I’d say only three of my top ten prospects have no chance to play in the big leagues this season. The Yankees will again use that farm system to supplemental their MLB roster. Injuries happen. Poor performances happen. Sometimes you need to swap guys out, and the Yankees have lots of alternatives waiting.

Clubs use their Triple-A affiliate as an extension of their big league roster nowadays, and because of that, we should take a second to look at the projected Triple-A Scranton roster for the coming season. We’re going to see a lot of these players in Spring Training soon and in the Bronx later this year. Let’s break down the 2018 RailRiders, starting with the position players. Here are the roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Utility
Kyle Higashioka* Miguel Andujar* Jabari Blash* Tyler Austin*
Francisco Diaz Thairo Estrada* Jake Cave* Billy McKinney*
Erik Kratz Gleyber Torres* Clint Frazier* Tyler Wade*
Abi Avelino Mark Payton Jace Peterson
Danny Espinosa Shane Robinson
Billy Fleming  Zack Zehner
 Ryan McBroom
Nick Solak

Twenty-one players total and we need to whittle that list down to 12 or 13 names. Triple-A teams carry 25-man rosters these days — it wasn’t that long ago that Triple-A and Double-A teams had 24-man rosters — and it is not at all uncommon for minor league teams to employ a full-time eight-man bullpen. Especially early in the season when young pitchers are still getting stretched out. Don’t want to overload them. Let’s pare down our list of 21 names.

Catchers: This is the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are entrenched at the big league level. Higashioka, who made his MLB debut when Sanchez got hurt last season, and Kratz, a veteran journeyman who returned to the Yankees on a minor league contract, are the obvious Triple-A catching tandem. I mentioned Diaz only because he is third on the Triple-A catching depth chart. If someone gets hurt or called up, Diaz figures to take that spot on the roster. Higashioka and Kratz are the projected Triple-A catchers. Easy peasy.

Infielders: Okay, now it’s getting complicated. We still don’t know who is going to play second or third base at the big league level. We have an idea based on the available personnel, but we don’t know for sure. Who had Jordan Montgomery winning a rotation spot in camp last season? Not many. An infielder could surprise and win a big league spot in Spring Training. Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Absolutely.

I have eight infielders in the table, though it’s really eleven because Wade and Peterson are natural infielders, and Austin is a first baseman. Wade, Peterson, and Austin can all play the outfield as well. Those eleven players have to cover at least eight roster spots. That is second base, third base, and utility infielder at the MLB level, plus all four starting infield spots and a utility infielder at the Triple-A level. It’s really seven roster spots though, not eight. Ronald Torreyes will be on the MLB roster in some capacity. He’s taking one of those three MLB spots. So we need to fill seven total spots.

My guess right now is, if the season started today, Andujar would start at third in the Bronx and Torres would start the season in Triple-A. He’s coming back from a major injury and he hasn’t played at all since last June. There’s also the whole service time thing. Sending him down for roughly three weeks buys another year of control. The Yankees typically do not obsess over service time, but man, how could you pass up that chance? It’s three weeks! And he’s coming back from a major injury!

Gleyber. (Scranton Times-Tribune)

I’m putting Andujar on the MLB roster and Torres on the Triple-A roster with the expectation Gleyber will be in the big leagues a few weeks into the season. My hunch is the Yankees signed Peterson and Espinosa as veteran safety nets. Not because they actually want to carry them on the roster. The Yankees are going young wherever possible and, unless all the kids fall flat in Spring Training, I think Peterson and Espinosa wind up going to Scranton. From what I understand both can opt-out of their contracts at the end of Spring Training if they’re not on the MLB roster, but I’d be surprised if that happens in this free agent climate.

Putting Espinosa and Peterson in Triple-A means Wade gets that final MLB infield spot almost by default. Does he start at second or sit on the bench while Torreyes starts? Who knows. Hopefully he starts. But Wade getting that job over Estrada (zero Triple-A games) and Avelino (more of an organizational utility guy at this point) makes sense. Our three big league infield spots are set. Second, third, and the utility spot go to Andujar, Wade, and Torreyes.

There are still two Triple-A roster spots to fill, however. One will go to Thairo. The last spot has to go to a first baseman and as things stand, Austin has a spot on the big league team’s bench. Either that or the Yankees are going to carry an eighth reliever, which is absolutely possible. I’m assuming Austin is on the bench though. In that case, I think McKinney gets the nod at first base over McBroom, who didn’t wow anyone in Double-A last season. The Triple-A outfield is crowded and McKinney at first, a position he began playing in the Arizona Fall League last year, clears up the logjam. Espinosa, Peterson, and Kratz all have some first base experience and are backup options.

Okay, so based on all that, we have filled the three big league infield spots (Andujar, Torreyes, Wade) and the five Triple-A infield spots (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres). Solak played only 30 games with Double-A Trenton last season and going back there to start this season should not surprise anyone. He’ll get another half-season with the Thunder, and if all goes well, expect Solak to get a midseason bump up to Triple-A. Not on Opening Day though.

Outfielders: The outfield is pretty straightforward. The big league roster is loaded with outfielders and that means Blash, Cave, and Frazier have little chance of winning an MLB job based on merit this spring. They’re tentatively scheduled to go to Triple-A and bide their time. McKinney and Peterson can also play the outfield, if necessary. Simple as it gets.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Kratz), five infielders (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres), and three outfielders (Blash, Cave, Frazier). Ten Triple-A position players. We need two more because based on the last few years, the Yankees will go with an eight-man Triple-A bullpen out of the gate. Robinson signed a minor league deal last night and will be in Triple-A, so that’s one of the two remaining spots. I think Fleming gets the final spot because he’s a true organizational utility infielder type. That’s usually the type of player who gets the last bench spot in Triple-A.

Alright, so putting it all together, we’re sending Avelino, Diaz, McBroom, Payton, Solak, and Zehner back to Double-A Trenton to begin the season, leaving us this group of 12 Triple-A position players:

  • Catchers (2): Higashioka, Kratz
  • Infielders (4): Espinosa, Estrada, Fleming, Torres
  • Outfielders (4): Blash, Cave, Frazier, Robinson
  • Utility (2): McKinney, Peterson

The big league openings at second and third bases complicate things. It could easily be Torres and Espinosa in MLB with Wade and Andujar in Triple-A. I wouldn’t put it past Torres to blow everyone away in Spring Training and get the second base job despite his injury and service time manipulation. We’ll see. Here, for the fun of it, is a possible Triple-A lineup based on my projected roster:

  1. SS Thairo Estrada
  2. 2B Gleyber Torres
  3. RF Clint Frazier
  4. 1B Billy McKinney
  5. LF Jabari Blash
  6. CF Jake Cave
  7. C Kyle Higashioka
  8. 3B Danny Espinosa
  9. DH Jace Peterson

Bench: Kratz, Fleming, Robinson

Don’t get too hung up on positional assignments. Players will rotate around like they always do. Torres and Thairo figure to see time at second, third, and short. Frazier will play both corner outfield spots, as will Blash. Peterson will get time in the outfield. That’s Triple-A baseball. More importantly, that is a crazy stacked lineup by Triple-A standards. Stacked with good prospects and hitters who will pummel Triple-A pitching. Fun summer ahead for the RailRiders. Let’s get to the pitching staff now.

Starters Righty Relievers Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo* Gio Gallegos* Caleb Frare
Luis Cessa* Ben Heller* Wade LeBlanc
Domingo German* Jonathan Holder* James Reeves
Chance Adams Cody Carroll Stephen Tarpley
David Hale Will Carter
Brody Koerner Cale Coshow
Brady Lail J.P. Feyereisen
Justus Sheffield

Fortunately, the big league pitching staff is much clearer than the infield. The Yankees have five starters for five rotation spots (Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) and six relievers for seven bullpen spots (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Adam Warren). The out-of-options Chasen Shreve presumably has a leg up on the final bullpen spot as the designated low-leverage “only when losing” reliever.

I have 19 pitchers in the table and we have to cut that list down to 13 for the Triple-A roster. Won’t be too difficult, especially with the big league pitching staff settled already.

Rotation: Let’s start with who I don’t expect to be in the Opening Day Triple-A rotation: Acevedo and Sheffield. Acevedo made only 14 Double-A starts last season (plus two Triple-A spot starts) and Sheffield made only 17 Double-A starts. Had he not strained his oblique and missed close to two months, chances are Sheffield would be ticketed for Triple-A Scranton right now. But he got hurt, missed time, and has to make it up.

I expect both Acevedo and Sheffield to return to Double-A Trenton to begin the season before a midseason (or sooner) promotion to Triple-A Scranton. the Triple-A rotation falls into place then. Adams, Cessa, and German all spent time — a lot of time, at that — with the RailRiders last year and will return. Hale is a veteran journeyman with gobs of Triple-A experience. He was signed to be the Triple-A innings guy, so he’s in the rotation too. Lail, who will again be in Spring Training as a non-roster player, is the obvious candidate for the fifth rotation spot. Acevedo, Koerner, and Sheffield go back to Trenton for the time being.

Bullpen: There are eight bullpen spots and four will go to Heller, Holder, Gallegos, and LeBlanc. Feyereisen spent much more time in Triple-A than Double-A last year, so he’s in too. Coshow has spent parts of three seasons in Double-A now and he got his feet wet in Triple-A late last year, and he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player, so I think he’s a lock for the RailRiders bullpen. Carroll was last year’s big breakout relief prospect, and given the fact he spent most of last season in Double-A and is already 25, I think Triple-A is a good bet for him.

All that leaves Carter, Frare, Reeves, and Tarpley as candidates for the eighth and final Triple-A bullpen spot. None of them have Triple-A experience. Frare has been in the organization the longest (11th round pick in 2012) but Carter has the most Double-A experience (90 innings). I think it comes down to those two. Tarpley has 10.1 career Double-A innings under his belt, all coming last season. Reeves has 14.1 career Double-A innings, all but four of which came last season. A return to Double-A is in the cards for those two.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the eighth Triple-A bullpen spot, so I’m going to answer the “Frare or Carter” question quickly. Frare is younger (by six months) and he’s left-handed, but Carter has performed better in Double-A, not that either has been a world-beater. Let’s go with Frare for the final Triple-A bullpen spot. Why not? This spot will be a revolving door anyway. Here’s our projected Triple-A pitching staff:

  • Rotation (5): Adams, Cessa, German, Hale, Lail
  • Relievers (8): Carroll, Coshow, Feyereisen, Frare, Gallegos, Heller, Holder, LeBlanc

I wouldn’t sweat the Opening Day starter or bullpen roles. On Opening Day, minor league teams tend to start whoever is lined up to pitch that day coming out of camp, and almost zero minor league teams have designated bullpen roles. Seventeen different pitchers recorded a save for the RailRiders last season, led by Ernesto Frieri’s seven. Gallegos, Heller, and Holder figure to be the Circle of Trust™ relievers given their Triple-A experience and success.

Now that we’ve gone through all the trouble of piecing together a projected Triple-A Scranton roster, I have to point out that this will be wrong. Very wrong. Beyond the usual “he didn’t make it when I thought he would” type of wrong too. Guys are going to get hurt in Spring Training. Nature of the beast. Hopefully no one important gets hurt, but guys are going to get hurt, and the Yankees will have to adjust, and that adjustment will change the Triple-A roster.

Thanks to the farm system, Triple-A Scranton will have a very exciting roster this season, even with injuries and promotions and demotions and all that constantly changing things. The lineup is stacked and I count no fewer than eight legitimate MLB calibers on the pitching staff. It’s been a few years since the Yankees last had to scramble to sign scrap heap players to fill out their Triple-A roster. Now they have quality prospects at pretty much every position, which in turn means they have better depth pieces available to the big league team.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Abi Avelino, Ben Heller, Billy Fleming, Billy McKinney, Brady Lail, Brody Koerner, Cale Coshow, Caleb Frare, Chance Adams, Clint Frazier, Cody Carroll, Danny Espinosa, David Hale, Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, Erik Kratz, Francisco Diaz, Gio Gallegos, Gleyber Torres, J.P. Feyereisen, Jabari Blash, Jace Peterson, Jake Cave, James Reeves, Jonathan Holder, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Higashioka, Luis Cessa, Mark Payton, Miguel Andujar, Nick Solak, Ryan McBroom, Stephen Tarpley, Thairo Estrada, Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Wade LeBlanc, Will Carter, Zack Zehner

Florial, Sheffield, Adams among 2018 Spring Training invitees

February 2, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Tampa in one week and five days, and earlier this morning, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster Spring Training invitees. The list of 20 non-roster players includes some of the team’s best prospects. Here’s the list:

PITCHERS (11)
RHP Chance Adams
RHP Cody Carroll
RHP Cale Coshow
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP J.P. Feyereisen
RHP David Hale
RHP Brady Lail
LHP Wade LeBlanc
LHP Justus Sheffield
RHP Dillon Tate
RHP Taylor Widener

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Erik Kratz
Chace Numata
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (4)
Danny Espinosa
Kyle Holder
Jace Peterson
Nick Solak

OUTFIELDERS (1)
Estevan Florial

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes top prospects like Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and Thairo Estrada. Ditto the no longer prospect eligible Clint Frazier. The 40-man roster is full, so the Yankees will have 60 players in camp total.

Hale, Kratz, Espinosa, and Peterson all signed minor league contracts in recent weeks. Everyone else is a product of the farm system. The only real surprise is Espinal, a 26-year-old righty who had an unreal minor league season a year ago, throwing 74.1 relief innings with a 1.09 ERA (2.23 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He topped out at Double-A Trenton. Seems like Espinal impressed enough to get an invite to camp. Good for him.

Assuming everyone stays healthy and there are no surprise trades, the Yankees have three Opening Day roster spots available: second base, third base, and last bullpen spot. I imagine the out of options Chasen Shreve has a leg up on the final bullpen spot. Torres, Andujar, Estrada, Espinosa, Peterson, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade are the primary competitors for the second and third base jobs.

When I put together my non-roster players preview a few weeks ago, I came up with 20 names. Espinal, Widener, and Coshow were the only actual non-roster players I missed. They take the place of Stephen Tarpley, James Reeves, and mystery first baseman yet to be signed on my projected non-roster list. Not too shabby on my part.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Brady Lail, Cale Coshow, Chace Numata, Chance Adams, Cody Carroll, Danny Espinosa, David Hale, Dillon Tate, Erik Kratz, Estevan Florial, Francisco Diaz, J.P. Feyereisen, Jace Peterson, Jorge Saez, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Holder, Nick Slak, Raynel Espinal, Taylor Widener, Wade LaBlanc

Sorting out the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2018

January 22, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa three weeks from tomorrow, and at some point soon, likely within the next two weeks, the Yankees will announce their 2018 Spring Training invitees. These are non-40-man roster players who get a chance to come to big league camp to strut their stuff. Some non-roster invitees are top prospects, some are middling prospects, and some are veteran journeymen trying to hang on.

Generally speaking, teams bring 20-25 non-roster players to Spring Training each year. Last year the Yankees initially invited 23 non-roster players before adding a few more within the first few days of camp. It was a World Baseball Classic year, so they needed extra bodies around while guys were away playing for their country. This is a normal year though, so 20-25 non-roster players. That sounds about right.

The Yankees still have a strong farm system despite the recent trades and graduations, and many of their top prospects are already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll be in camp automatically. Four of MLB.com’s top seven Yankees prospects are on the 40-man, so yeah. Spring Training is a great time to prospect watch. We’ll get a chance to see pretty much all the team’s best prospects at some point, 40-man roster or otherwise.

So, with Spring Training inching closer and non-roster invitees soon to be announced, now is a good time to preview the non-40-man roster players the Yankees could bring to camp this year. Last year I predicted 24 non-roster players and 20 of the 24 actually got the call, so go me. Hopefully I’ll have a similar success rate this year. Anyway, let’s get to the potential non-roster players.

Catchers

Every team brings lots of catchers to Spring Training each year because hey, who is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions? That’s really all there is to it. There are lots of pitchers in camp who need regular work to get up to speed, and teams can’t overload three or four catchers early in camp. Imagine making Gary Sanchez squat four hours a day to catch bullpens before games even start? Nope. Not gonna happen. The Yankees will again bring plenty of non-roster catchers to camp.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Erik Kratz, Chace Numata, Jorge Saez. Kratz re-signed on a minor league deal a few weeks ago and as a big league veteran who spent September with the Yankees and traveled with the team in the postseason, it’s safe to assume he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player. Diaz and Saez are organizational depth catchers who were in camp last year. (Diaz re-signed as a minor league free agent earlier this winter.) The Yankees picked up Numata a few weeks ago and given the fact he has Double-A experience, it makes sense that he’d get the call for Spring Training. Sanchez, Austin Romine, and Kyle Higashioka are on the 40-man, making it seven catchers total for Spring Training.

Infielders

Solak. (@MLBPipeline)

The infield mix this spring should be pretty interesting. The Yankees have openings at second and third bases, and while youngsters like Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar may be the favorites for those jobs, I have to think the team will cover their bases and bring in plenty of options. Torres, Andujar, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Ronald Torreyes are all on the 40-man already. Those are your top five second/third base candidates.

On the prospect front, Nick Solak strikes me as a logical non-roster player given his status as a recent high draft pick (second round in 2016) and success at Double-A last season (.286/.344/.429 for a 112 wRC+), even though it came in a 30-game cameo. My hunch is Kyle Holder will get some non-roster time as well. He’s another recent high draft pick (supplemental first round in 2015) who had a good-ish year in 2017. The Yankees like him enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. I think Holder gets the invite as basically the last infielder and is among the first cuts.

Younger lower level infield prospects like Hoy Jun Park, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, and Oswaldo Cabrera aren’t non-roster material. Big league camp isn’t the appropriate place for them at this point in their careers. The Yankees will, however, bring another first baseman to camp. Greg Bird and Tyler Austin are the only 40-man players at the position now. The Yankees tried to re-sign Ji-Man Choi, who recently signed with the Brewers. I imagine they’ll target another Triple-A first baseman. Looking at the list of free agents … maybe Tyler Moore? We’ll see.

I also expect the Yankees to bring in another veteran infielder on a minor league deal. They’ve already signed Jace Peterson, but remember how many infield spots they have to fill. There’s second, third, and the backup spot at the MLB level. Then there’s second, third, short, and the backup spot in Triple-A. That’s seven infielders. Right now the Yankees have Torres, Andujar, Wade, Estrada, Torreyes, and Peterson for six of those seven spots. So yeah, another minor league contract infielder is coming.

My Prediction: Holder, Solak, Peterson, an infielder yet to be signed, and a first baseman yet to be signed. If the Yankees don’t sign a first baseman — that would really surprise me, but I suppose it’s not impossible — Ryan McBroom would be the third Spring Training first baseman almost by default. Billy McKinney, who is on the 40-man and started playing first in the Arizona Fall League, also figures to see time at the position.

Outfielders

Last year the Yankees invited two non-roster outfielders to camp: Clint Frazier and Dustin Fowler. Frazier, assuming he isn’t traded between now and reporting date, is on the 40-man and will be in camp automatically. Fowler is with the A’s. The Yankees are overloaded with outfielders at the moment, so they have more than enough bodies to cover all those innings during Grapefruit League play.

Now, that said, the Yankees tend to bring their very best prospects to camp each season, which means Estevan Florial is a good bet to receive a non-roster invite. He went to the Futures Game last year, finished the season with a quick Double-A cameo, and went to the Arizona Fall League. And he is one of the 100 or so best prospects in baseball. Even though he turned only 20 in November, Florial is sufficiently top prospecty enough for a non-roster invite at this point of his career.

My Prediction: Florial. That’s it. Other outfield prospects like Isiah Gilliam, Rashad Crawford, and Alex Palma are a no. Keep in mind the Yankees have nine outfielders on the 40-man at the moment: Frazier, McKinney, Jabari Blash, Jake Cave, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Peterson and Wade can also play the outfield. The Yankees are plenty covered.

Right-handers

Adams. (Presswire)

The Yankees have more high-end young pitching in the farm system than at any point in the last 10-15 years. One small problem: Most of it is in the low minors. Teenagers like Matt Sauer, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, and Deivi Garcia aren’t coming to big league camp. They don’t belong there. They’re not ready for it. Even the Single-A guys in their early-20s like Freicer Perez and Taylor Widener won’t get invited. It’s not their time. Clarke Schmidt, last year’s first round pick, is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he won’t get a non-roster invite. There’s no point.

Even ruling out the generally inexperienced lower level guys, the Yankees have no shortage of quality right-handed pitching prospects to invite to camp. Chief among them: Chance Adams and Dillon Tate. Adams was in camp last season and could be the first guy called up when a sixth starter is needed this season, so of course he’s coming to camp. Tate was not a non-roster guy last year, but now that he has some Double-A time under his belt, it stands to reason he’ll get the invite.

On the bullpen side, I think J.P. Feyereisen will return to big league camp this spring — he was in camp last year — even though he didn’t have a great 2017 season and was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s someone who could find himself in the big leagues rather quickly if he starts the season well and the Yankees have a need. The Yankees will want the new coaching staff to get to know him. Same with Cody Carroll, last year’s breakout relief prospect, who finished the season in Double-A and dominated in the Arizona Fall League.

My Prediction: Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Tate, Brady Lail, and a minor league contract guy yet to be signed. I get the feeling a depth arm signing is coming. As for Lail, he was a non-roster player each of the last two years, so the Yankees like him. Maybe they don’t like him as much now after a tough Triple-A season last year (5.17 ERA and 4.76 FIP), but I’m going to play it safe and say he gets another invite. There are always innings to be soaked up. Reminder: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all on the 40-man roster. They’ll be in camp. I’m looking forward to seeing Johnny Lasagna. Moreso than another other non-40-man prospect this spring.

Left-handers

Realistically, there’s only one worthwhile left-handed pitching prospect in the organization: Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is the Yankees’ top pitching prospect overall and he was in camp as a non-roster player last year, so of course he’ll be back this year. He made only two appearances totaling 3.2 innings last spring. I’d bet on a little more action this time around.

James Reeves and Stephen Tarpley are the two other non-40-man southpaws worth a mention. Reeves was actually in camp as a non-roster player last spring, but he suffered an elbow injury early on and didn’t pitch. Once healthy, he had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 46 innings, and he reached Double-A. Reeves has a classic low arm slot left-on-left matchup profile …

… the kind of profile that seems to be dying out around baseball, but the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp last spring, and after he season he just had, I expect him to be back in big league camp this year. As for Tarpley, he had an unreal 2017 season, throwing 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) and a strong strikeout rate (26.9%) but a not-so-strong walk rate (11.5%). The numbers are good, but Tarpley went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft last month, and teams usually gobble up any left-hander they think has a chance to be useful. Hmmm.

My Prediction: Sheffield, Reeves, Tarpley, and Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc is on a minor league contract with an invite to camp, so he’ll be there. I think Tarpley gets an invite because the Yankees are short on 40-man roster lefties — the only southpaws on the 40-man are Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, and Chasen Shreve — and clubs generally like to bring in plenty of lefties just to take inventory. See who could be an option at some point, you know?

* * *

Putting it all together, we come away with 20 non-roster players. Here is the breakdown:

  • Catchers (4): Diaz, Kratz, Numata, Saez
  • Infielders (5): Holder, Solak, Peterson, mystery infielder, mystery first baseman
  • Outfielders (1): Florial
  • Right-handers (6): Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Lail, Tate, mystery minor league signing
  • Left-handers (4): Reeves, Sheffield, Tarpley, LeBlanc

That’s probably not enough players. Last year the Yankees had 23 non-roster players initially before adding a few others during the first days of camp. They had 26 non-roster players in camp in both 2015 and 2016. My total of 20 potential non-roster players is light. There will be a few more players in camp.

Like I said, the Yankees are almost certainly not done signing journeymen like Kratz, Peterson, and LeBlanc to minor league deals. The Yankees had five veterans (Choi, Jason Gurka, Ruben Tejada, Donovan Solano, Pete Kozma) on minor league deals in camp last spring, for reference. A few more signings are coming and will get the non-roster list over 20 names.

Also, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will be more open to bringing lower level prospects to camp this spring. Maybe they let Donny Sands catch some bullpens, or give Park a taste of big league life, or let someone like Perez or Widener air it out for a few innings to showcase them as trade chips. Those 20 names above are the core non-roster players. A few minor minor league signings and a surprise prospect or two (like Daniel Camarena last year) figure to round out this year’s crop of invitees.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Alex Palma, Brady Lail, Chace Numata, Chance Adams, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, Dillon Tate, Donny Sands, Erik Kratz, Estevan Florial, Francisco Diaz, Freicer Perez, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, J.P. Feyereisen, Jace Peterson, James Reeves, Jorge Saez, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Holder, Luis Medina, Matt Sauer, Nick Solak, Oswaldo Cabrera, Rashad Crawford, Roansy Contreras, Ryan McBroom, Stephen Tarpley, Steven Sensley, Taylor Widener, Wade LeBlanc

The Farm System That Fueled The Yankees’ Surprising Success [2017 Season Review]

December 19, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Gleyber. (Yankees Magazine)
Gleyber. (Yankees Magazine)

Coming into the 2017 season, the Yankees had arguably the best farm system in baseball, thanks largely to last summer’s trade deadline deals. The development of players already in the system contributed to that as well. It would be wrong to credit the farm system turnaround to the trades only. Player development helped too.

That highly ranked farm system helped the Yankees get to within one game of the World Series this year. The system pumped productive players into the big league roster and also gave the Yankees plenty of trade chips. And, amazingly enough, the Yankees still have a very good farm system. Jim Callis rated the system as the fourth best in baseball back in August, after the trade deadline and all the graduations. Pretty incredible. Let’s review the year that was down on the farm.

The Graduates

Might as well start with the players who are no longer prospects. MLB’s rookie limits are 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched, and according to that, the Yankees graduated a very impressive group of prospects to the big leagues: OF Clint Frazier (season review), RHP Chad Green (season review), OF Aaron Judge (season review), and LHP Jordan Montgomery (season review). Also, IF Tyler Wade (season review) is no longer rookie eligible due to service time, not at-bats.

Judge set a new rookie record with 52 home runs, earning him the AL Rookie of the Year award (unanimously) and the runner-up spot for the AL MVP. Green was a top ten reliever in baseball this season despite not getting called up until early-May. Montgomery led all rookie starters in WAR. Frazier and Wade did not have that sort of impact this season, though Frazier did hit a walk-off homer, and that’s pretty cool. By WAR, no team in baseball received more production from their farm system in 2017. It wasn’t even close.

The Top Prospect

There was no change atop the organizational prospect list this year. The top prospect going into Spring Training is still the top prospect today. That is both good news and bad news. It’s good news because that prospect, SS Gleyber Torres, is really freaking good. He was a consensus top five prospect coming into the season and MLB.com currently ranks him as the second best prospect in baseball, behind Japanese league veteran Shohei Ohtani.

It is also bad news because had things gone according to plan this season, Torres would not be a prospect right now. He would’ve made his MLB debut at some point and likely accrued enough playing time to land with the graduated prospects. Instead, Torres’ season ended on June 16th, when he managed to tear the ulnar collateral ligament in his non-throwing elbow during a slide into home plate. What a fluky injury.

“(Torres) was starting to conquer the International League and then he got hurt,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty last week. “The way his trajectory was going, I think you would have seen him in the big leagues last year some point in the end. You may very well have seen him as the DH or third base. It may have prevented us from trading for Todd Frazier. Who knows. We never did find out because he didn’t get more time.”

Torres started the year by tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training — he hit .448/.469/.931 with nine extra-base hits (six doubles, one triple, two homers) and four singles in 32 Grapefruit League plate appearances — so much so that some wanted him on the Opening Day roster in place of the injured Didi Gregorius. I don’t mean fans either. Members of Joe Girardi’s coaching staff wanted to take Gleyber north out of camp.

“Our Major League staff wanted him ‘now.’ They wanted him to break camp and then play him at shortstop,” said Cashman to Ron Blum last week. “We just felt it was important for him to crawl before you walk, and walk before you run, and I didn’t want him drinking out of a fire hose in April. So I took my time, and I think it was the right move for him and for us.”

Torres went to Double-A Trenton and hit .273/.367/.496 (138 wRC+) in 32 games while being more than four years younger than the average Eastern League player. Then, after being promoted to Triple-A Scranton, he hit .309/.406/.457 (145 wRC+) in 23 games before the injuries. He was nearly seven years younger than the average International League player. Torres finished the season with a .287/.383/.480 (141 wRC+) batting line, seven homers, 12.8% walks, and 20.0% strikeouts in 55 minor league games.

As far as we know, Gleyber’s rehab is going well — he posts occasional workout videos on social media — well enough that Cashman confirmed Torres asked to play winter ball. The Yankees said no, however. They want him to come to Spring Training at full strength, not rush him back. We’ll see how what happens the rest of the offseason, though as things stand, there are openings at second and third base, and Torres could get a chance to win one of those jobs next spring. This time the coaching staff may get their wish and he’ll be included on the Opening Day roster.

The Other Top Prospects

Sheffield. (Presswire)
Sheffield. (Presswire)

I think there are two pretty defined tiers at the top of the farm system at the moment. There’s Gleyber and then there are the other guys who are top 100 caliber prospects. Will they all appear in top 100 lists next spring? Probably not, but I am sure they will all receive consideration, at the very least. Personal favorite 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) is among them. Even after graduating Judge and Frazier, the Yankees could still boast five or six top 100 prospects next year. That’s pretty cool.

LHP Justus Sheffield, who came over from the Indians with Frazier in the Andrew Miller trade, started the season as a 20-year-old in Double-A and threw 93.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA (4.58 FIP) and 20.3% strikeouts and 8.2% walks before an oblique injury shut him down. Sheffield returned in time to pitch in the Arizona Fall League (3.10 ERA in 20.1 innings) and was so impressive one scout told Josh Norris he had “No.1 starter-type stuff.” A lefty with good velocity and two potential out-pitch secondary pitches is a mighty fine prospect, and it is not out of the question that Sheffield will make his MLB debut at some point in 2018.

The Yankees’ other top pitching prospect, RHP Chance Adams, was impressive in his second full season as a starting pitcher, pitching to a 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 22.3% strikeouts and 9.6% walks in 150.1 innings at mostly Triple-A. The Yankees had plenty of opportunities to call Adams up this season, though they passed each time, which tells us they believe he still has some things to improve. And that’s okay. He just turned 24 and has been a starter for only two years. I thought Adams would debut in 2017 and it didn’t happen. If he doesn’t debut in 2018 though, something will have gone wrong.

RHP Albert Abreu came over in the Brian McCann trade last winter — the Yankees didn’t stop trading veterans for prospects at the 2016 deadline — and he was awfully impressive around elbow and lat injuries, throwing 53.1 innings with a 3.37 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.6% strikeouts and 8.1% walks at two Single-A levels. The injuries are a red flag, obviously, though the good news is Abreu was healthy enough to throw 27.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. Abreu has a legitimate four-pitch mix and might have the best stuff in the system. Even with the injuries, he upped his stock this year by improving his control.

The Trade Chips

Aside from producing the AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP runner-up, as well as several other contributing youngsters, the farm system also helped the Yankees by providing trade chips. We knew this was coming too. There is only so much roster space to go around, so the Yankees either had to trade some prospects, to risk losing them for nothing in the roster crunch. Heck, they made trades and still lost four players in the Rule 5 Draft.

The Yankees dipped into the prospect depth to make three trades this summer. Most notably, they shipped RHP James Kaprielian, SS/OF Jorge Mateo, and OF Dustin Fowler (season review) to the Athletics for Sonny Gray and $1.5M in international bonus money. Coming into the season Kaprielian (No. 5), Mateo (No. 7), and Fowler (No. 12) all ranked among my top 12 prospects in the system. That’s a lot of talent! There’s also more to the story.

Both Kaprielian and Fowler were damaged goods. Fowler blew out his knee crashing into the side wall at Guaranteed Rate Field in his first inning as a big leaguer, and Kaprielian underwent Tommy John surgery in April. He never took the mound this season. And that’s after a flexor injury limited Kaprielian to 45 innings in 2016. Since being the 16th overall pick in the 2015 draft, the soon-to-be 24-year-old Kaprielian has thrown 56.1 pro innings. He’s lost a lot of development time.

Mateo, meanwhile, was looking to bounce back from a wholly disappointing 2016 season, in which he hit .254/.306/.379 (99 wRC+) in 113 High-A games and was suspended two weeks for violating team rules. He hit .240/.288/.400 (98 wRC+) in 69 High-A games to begin this season, was promoted to Double-A anyway, and hit .300/.381/.525 (147 wRC+) in 30 games at the level. The Yankees also had Mateo begin working out in center field.

Mateo. (Presswire)
Mateo. (Presswire)

Aside from those 30 Double-A games before the trade, Mateo’s performance has not been good the last two years, yet the A’s loved his talent so much that they took him as the only healthy player in the Gray trade. In the end, the Yankees traded three of the dozen best prospects in their system for a potential impact starter in Gray, and all three of those prospects had seen their stock slip since Opening Day. Fowler and Kaprielian were seriously hurt and Mateo hadn’t performed aside from a month-long stint in Double-A immediately prior to the trade.

A few weeks prior to the Gray trade, the Yankees traded three prospects, including 2016 first round pick OF Blake Rutherford, to acquire David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier from the White Sox. Rutherford’s first full pro season was not going as hoped — he was hitting .281/.342/.391 (113 wRC+) with two homers in 71 Low-A games at the time of the trade — and my guess is that if he was living up to the hype, he would not have been traded. Rutherford hit .213/.289/.254 (63 wRC+) in 30 Low-A games after the trade, so yeah.

LHP Ian Clarkin, a 2013 first round pick, was also included in the trade. He’s been hampered by injuries over the years and, at the time of the trade, he had a 2.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) with 18.7% strikeouts and 8.0% walks in 75.2 innings at High-A. Clarkin made only three starts with the White Sox after the trade due to an oblique injury. The third prospect in the trade, OF Tito Polo, hit .307/.369/.455 (139 wRC+) with five homers and 27 steals in 74 games split between High-A and Double-A before going to Chicago. The ChiSox did not add Polo to the 40-man roster after the season and he was not selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Clarkin was added to the 40-man.

Also at the deadline, the Yankees turned two depth arms into Jaime Garcia, who provided rotation depth down the stretch. LHP Dietrich Enns, a stats before stuff guy, had a 2.29 ERA (2.70 FIP) in 39.1 Triple-A innings before the trade while missing time with a shoulder issue. RHP Zack Littell had a 1.87 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 115.1 High-A and Double-A innings before the trade, though the presence of many higher upside arms made his spot in the organization uncertain. Would the Yankees have 40-man roster space for him after the season? Rather than answer that question, the Yankees used Littell in a trade to help the MLB roster.

The Breakout Prospects

There may not have been a bigger breakout prospect in all the minors this season than OF Estevan Florial. The just turned 20-year-old spent most of the season with Low-A Charleston, hitting .298/.372/.479 (145 wRC+) with 13 homers and 23 steals in 110 total games. That earned Florial a spot in the Futures Game. His walk rate (10.1%) was very good. His strikeout rate (31.1%)? Not so much. Making more contact is the top priority going forward because everything else Florial does on the field is explosive. Power, speed, defense, you name it.

An argument can be made Florial is the second best prospect in the system behind Torres right now. I don’t have him that high in the system just yet — not gonna lie, the contact issues worry me, though he’s still so young and has plenty of time to improve — but it is clear Florial has emerged as a top 100 caliber prospect and one of the most tooled up outfielders in the minors. He has some things to work on. No doubt. Everyone does. But Florial’s emergence this year helped make Rutherford and Fowler expendable.

Florial. (Trust me.) (Presswire)
Florial. (Trust me.) (Presswire)

IF Thairo Estrada, a personal favorite, went from interesting low level guy to 40-man roster player this year by hitting .301/.353/.392 (107 wRC+) with a tiny little 10.3% strikeout rate in 122 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A. The Yankees added Thairo to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month and while he’s not another Gleyber or Andujar, Estrada can be the rich man’s Ronald Torreyes thanks to his contact skills and sure-handed defense all around the infield.

It might be a stretch to consider 2B Nick Solak a true breakout player, but the fact of the matter is that in his first full minor league season, the soon-to-be 23-year-old authored a .297/.384/.452 (143 wRC+) batting line with 12 homers, 14 steals, 11.7% walks, and 18.6% strikeouts in 130 games and reached Double-A. That is pretty darn good. Solak has some Rob Refsnyder in him — he’s a hitter first and a second baseman second — though he has more pop than Refsnyder and has a much better chance of staying at second base. I can’t help but feel like he’s trade bait.

Two years ago the Yankees gave 20th round pick OF Isiah Gilliam a well over slot $550,000 bonus because they like his power from both sides of the plate, and this season he put together a .275/.356/.468 (137 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers, 10.8% walks, and 21.7% strikeouts in 125 games, all with Low-A Charleston. He also showed he could handle the outfield full-time after spending most of the junior college career at first base. Gilliam turned 21 late in the season and his power is legit. That $550,000 looks like money well spent so far.

On the pitching side, there was no bigger breakout player this season than RHP Jorge Guzman, who played so well he was the top prospect in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. The 21-year-old came over with Abreu in the McCann trade and emerged as a top ten prospect in the system by throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.30 ERA (2.47 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (6.8%) rates for Short Season Staten Island. Guzman is an extreme hard-thrower — he reportedly sat 98-99 mph as a starter all summer — who made strides with his secondary stuff this year. As promising a prospect as he is — I think Guzman will pop up on top 100 lists come midseason — parting with a low level arm like Guzman for Stanton is a no-brainer.

RHP Taylor Widener made the college reliever to pro starter transition a la Adams, and he responded with 119.1 innings of 3.39 ERA (3.05 FIP) ball for High-A Tampa. His strikeout rate (26.4%) was good. His walk rate (10.2%) was not. Widener does not have Adams’ stuff — he lacks a legitimate put-away breaking ball or offspeed pitch — though remaining a starter long-term is not completely out of the questions now. If nothing else, Widener has raised his stock and could be a trade chip.

The Emerging Young Arms

A year ago the Yankees had a position player heavy farm system. Now they’re loaded with pitching, most of it in the low minors. RHP Domingo Acevedo is one of the exceptions. He pitched at three levels in 2017, including Double-A and Triple-A, and he finished with a 3.25 ERA (3.25 FIP) and 26.0% strikeouts and 6.2% walks in 133 total innings. Right now the 23-year-old Acevedo succeeds mostly by filling the strike zone with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, but he’ll have to improve his breaking ball to remain a starter long-term.

In the lower minors, RHP Luis Medina quickly established himself as one of the highest upside pitchers in the system despite throwing 38.2 rookie ball innings with a 5.35 ERA (3.98 FIP) and 22.7% strikeouts and 14.0% walks. The 18-year-old signed for $300,000 in July 2015 and has easy 97-100 mph heat with two potential knockout secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. Medina has a long way to go from where he is to big league starter, but gosh, the kid can really bring it. He’s a long-term project with frontline starter upside.

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, a 23-year-old Giants castoff with 103.2 career innings in parts of five seasons, earned a spot on the 40-man roster by throwing 32.2 innings with a 1.38 ERA (2.17 FIP) and 27.2% strikeouts and 2.5% walks in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s a tiny little guy (5-foot-11 and 165 lbs.) with a big arm, routinely sitting 93-97 mph with his fastball and backing it up with a power curveball and quality changeup. Not every prospect is a high draft pick or big money international signing. Sometimes a scrap heap signing like Loaisiga turns into a legit prospect worth a 40-man spot.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more classic Yankees pitching prospect than Loaisiga — Perez stands 6-foot-8 and 190 lbs. — and he’s gradually added velocity as a pro as he’s added muscle and refined his mechanics. The 21-year-old spent the season with Low-A Charleston and had a 2.84 ERA (3.59 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 8.7% walks in 123.2 innings. Perez has some clunkiness in his delivery …

… which makes it difficult for him to stay on top of his curveball, though he is gaining consistency with the pitch. A mid-90s fastball and a surprisingly good changeup round out his repertoire. The Yankees signed Perez for a mere $10,000 back in December 2014 and he’s come a long way with his mechanics and his control.

It can be easy to stereotype Latin America pitching prospects as raw hard-throwers, but that does not describe 18-year-old RHP Roansy Contreras, a four-pitch pitcher with low-90s gas and a plan. His performance this season wasn’t great — he threw 53.2 rookie ball innings with a 4.02 ERA (4.18 FIP) with 14.0% strikeouts and 7.0% walks — though it’s rookie ball, so who cares. Contreras has the projectability to add velocity and the pitching acumen to further refine his secondary pitches. He’s quite the sleeper.

The Garcias — RHP Deivi Garcia and RHP Rony Garcia — are similar in that they’re teenage prospects with good velocity and a quality curveball. Deivi, 18, had a 3.30 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 36.6% strikeouts and 8.2% walks in 60 rookie ball innings this year. His curveball is said to have an elite spin rate. Rony, 19, had a 2.50 ERA (3.74 FIP) with 18.2% strikeouts and 5.5% walks in 75.2 rookie ball innings, and he operated with a low-to-mid-90s cutter and a snappy upper-70s curveball. Both Garcias are 2018-19 breakout candidates.

The Rebound Prospects

When the Yankees made their trade deadline deals last year, they targeted several once highly touted buy low candidates they’d try to rebuild. Among them was RHP Dillon Tate, the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft and part of the Carlos Beltran trade. Tate missed time with a shoulder problem this year, but when he returned, he had a 2.81 ERA (3.95 FIP) with 18.4% strikeouts and 7.0% walks in 83.1 innings split between High-A and Low-A. More importantly, his stuff bounced all the way back after a down 2016 season. From Keith Law (subs. req’d):

On Tuesday night, he started Game 1 of the Eastern League championship series for Trenton, and was sitting at 94-97 mph from the windup with more fastball life than he’d shown last year in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever, along with a much-improved changeup that I think has surpassed his slider to become his best off-speed pitch … Tate still has starter potential, even good starter potential, but there are a couple of specific facets to his game that have to improve for him to get there.

OF Billy McKinney was part of the Aroldis Chapman trade and he rebounded from a tough 2016 season to hit .277/.338/.483 (124 wRC+) in 124 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His 16 home runs were easily a new career high. That was enough to land McKinney on the 40-man roster and enough for the Yankees to have him try first base in the Arizona Fall League as they look for a way to get him into the lineup.

Although he was not acquired at the 2016 trade deadline, OF Jake Cave qualifies as a rebound prospect because his stock is at an all-time high following several up and down seasons. The 25-year-old posted a .305/.351/.542 (145 wRC+) line with a career high 20 home runs — his previous career high was eight homers — in 103 games at Double-A and Triple-A. He credited the success to a new emphasis on elevating the ball. To wit:

  • 2015: 55.3 GB% and 17.9 K%
  • 2016: 44.0 GB% and 22.5 K%
  • 2017: 42.0 GB% and 26.3 K%

Fewer ground balls and more strikeouts are classic signs a player is selling out for power, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. Cave’s career had kinda stalled out and he made adjustments that landed him a spot on the 40-man roster. He and McKinney are both left-handed hitting outfielders who experienced Triple-A success this season. The fact Cave can play center field — and play it well — gives him the edge over McKinney as a prospect in my opinion.

RHP Nick Rumbelow, who spent some big league time with the Yankees in 2015, returned from Tommy John surgery at midseason and was dynamite, throwing 40.1 innings with a 1.12 ERA (1.89 FIP) and 29.4% strikeouts and 7.2% walks between Double-A and Triple-A. Rumbelow was so good the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster after the season, and the Mariners then traded two prospects (LHP JP Sears and RHP Juan Then) to the Yankees to get him. Sears has left-on-left matchup potential and Then is a lower level prospect with starter upside.

The New Faces

The Yankees subtracted way more prospects via trade this season than they acquired. In addition to Sears and Then, the Yankees added 1B Ryan McBroom in a minor trade with the Blue Jays. Refsnyder went the other way. McBroom is a right-handed hitting and left-handed throwing first baseman who hit .257/.327/.379 (96 wRC+) with four homers in 38 Double-A games after the trade. He hit .247/.323/.395 (98 wRC+) with 16 homers overall in 2017. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is a fringe prospect who might hold down first base in Scranton in 2018.

RHP Matt Frawley, a 17th round pick in last year’s draft, came over from the Pirates for Johnny Barbato. The 22-year-old had a statistically excellent season — he threw 71.2 innings between Low-A and High-A, and finished with a 1.63 ERA (2.24 FIP) and 26.7% strikeouts and 4.2% walks — and is a low-to-mid-90s fastball/curveball reliever. Frawley figures to open 2018 at Double-A and could be a big league option come 2019.

A few weeks ago the Yankees sent Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith to the Marlins for international bonus money and RHP Mike King, Miami’s 12th round pick in last summer’s draft. The 22-year-old threw 149 innings this year, all at Low-A, with a 3.14 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 17.8% strikeouts and 3.5% walks. King is a low-90s fastball/slider guy with very good command. I suspect the Yankees will move him into the bullpen at some point to see what happens when he airs it out for an inning or two.

King. (@7Kinger14 on Twitter)
King. (@7Kinger14 on Twitter)

The Yankees also acquired RHP Yoiber Marquina from the Indians as the player to be named later in last offseason’s Nick Goody trade, though the 21-year-old did not pitch in 2017 as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. Marquina is a legitimate prospect though, sitting in the low-90s with a usable curveball and changeup. He had a 3.16 ERA (2.90 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 31.1 Low-A innings last year, before his elbow gave out.

Of course, the Yankees also added talent through the 2017 draft as well. They signed 23 of their 40 picks, including the top 22. First round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt did not pitch after the draft as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. RHP Matt Sauer, the club’s second rounder, had a 5.40 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 21.1% strikeouts and 14.0% walks in 11.2 rookie ball innings after signing. Third rounder RHP Trevor Stephan was a monster in his pro debut, posting a 1.31 ERA (1.74 FIP) with 34.1% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 34.1 pro innings, mostly with Short Season Staten Island.

The Yankees may have found a diamond in the rough in 12th rounder OF Steven Sensley, who hit .292/.370/.584 (157 wRC+) with 13 home runs at three levels after the draft, climbing as high as Low-A Charleston. We’ve seen plenty of guys have big pro debuts and do nothing after, so we’ll see what Sensley does next year, but the scouting report is intriguing. Sensley has power, a plan at the plate, and good athleticism. Here are our Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

The Best of the Rest

Not counting the guys who graduated or were traded away, I’ve covered 32 prospects in this post already. I count about 15 others I haven’t covered who would land in a “normal” top 30 prospects list. The Yankees have a lot of depth in their system. Not everyone is going to be a star, but they have a lot of players who project to be useful big leaguers. Those guys can be plugged into the roster when help is needed or traded. Here are the other notable players who spent at least part of 2017 in the farm system (age in parentheses).

  • IF Abi Avelino (22): Avelino has become an organizational utility infielder — he hit .254/.304/.356 (82 wRC+) in 98 games at three levels and all different positions — and could really use a fresh start somewhere else.
  • IF Oswaldo Cabrera (18): Cabrera’s skills don’t show up in the stats: .252/.306/.321 (85 wRC+) with four homers in 112 games at the lower levels. He has good bat-to-ball skills, good defensive chops, and is a very hard worker.
  • C Gustavo Campero (20): The 5-foot-6 backstop hit .304/.444/.545 (179 wRC+) with three homers, 13 steals, and more walks (27) than strikeouts (23) in 36 rookie ball games. Can he hit more advanced pitching? Can he catch? Those are the questions going forward.
  • RHP Cody Carroll (25): Very hard-throwing reliever posted a 2.54 ERA (3.04 FIP) with 32.1% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in 67.1 innings at High-A and Double-A. Carroll needs to be more consistent with his slider and control, but he figures to be a big league option in 2018.
  • SS Diego Castillo (20): Contact maestro hit .263/.310/.315 (83 wRC+) with 10.0% strikeouts in 118 Low-A games. He’s a way better prospect than the stat line indicates. Castillo has great contact skills, he can really play shortstop, and he’s very instinctual.
  • LHP Nestor Cortes (23): Cortes had another dominant statistical season, throwing 104.2 innings with a 2.06 ERA (2.86 FIP) and 24.8% strikeouts at three levels. He was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft, so we might get to see how his soft-tossing approach works against big leaguers in 2018.
  • RHP Juan De Paula (20): De Paula, who was part of the Ben Gamel trade, quietly posted a 2.90 ERA (3.08 FIP) in 62 innings with Short Season Staten Island. He’s a pitchability guy with a deep arsenal.
  • RHP J.P. Feyereisen (24): In 63.1 upper level innings, Feyereisen managed a 3.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 23.3% strikeouts and 10.9% walks. Despite touching triple digits with his fastball, an inconsistent slider kept Feyereisen from being picked in the Rule 5 Draft.
  • RHP Drew Finley (21): Injuries continue to hamper the former third round pick. Finley threw 33.1 low level innings with a 6.48 ERA (4.51 FIP), and his stuff has backed up a bit since he was drafted in 2015.
  • 3B Dermis Garcia (19): No one in the farm system has more power than Dermis, who hit .249/.357/.542 (144 wRC+) with 17 homers and 14.3% walks in only 63 low level games. He has to get the strikeouts (30.5%) under control though, especially with a move to first base looking more and more likely.
  • SS Wilkerman Garcia (19): Second straight disappointing season for Wilkerman, who once upon a time was a top ten prospect in the system. He hit .222/.256/.296 (64 wRC+) in 67 games with Short Season Staten Island.
  • SS Kyle Holder (23): The defensive wiz hit .271/.317/.350 (95 wRC+) at High-A this year and seems to be getting a little better with the bat with each passing year. I’m buying.
  • RHP Brian Keller (23): Last year’s 39th round pick ripped up the low minors (3.13 ERA and 2.54 FIP in 144 innings), which is what you’d expect a four-year college guy to do. Keller has four pitches, none of which is great.
  • RHP Nolan Martinez (19): A shoulder issue limited Martinez to 13.2 rookie ball innings in 2017, during which he allowed one run and struck out 14. He’s a prime 2018 breakout candidate thanks to his low-90s heater and high spin curveball.
  • RHP Nick Nelson (22): The numbers aren’t great (4.56 ERA and 3.83 FIP at Low-A), but Nelson misses bats with his fastball and curveball, and his changeup is promising as well. Better prospect than the numbers would lead you to believe.
  • OF Pablo Olivares (19): Olivares is one of those good at everything, great at nothing prospects. He hit .241/.347/.322 (94 wRC+) in 59 games, which included a rough 36-game stint at Charleston (33 wRC+).
  • OF Alex Palma (22): The outfield assist machine (seven in 49 games!) had his best year with the stick, hitting .280/.322/.435 (120 wRC+) with four homers in 54 Single-A games. Palma did not get picked in the Rule 5 Draft, but with another strong year, he may force a 40-man roster decision next offseason.
  • SS Hoy Jun Park (21): The .251/.348/.359 (110 wRC+) batting line with seven homers and 25 steals in 110 games doesn’t stand out, but Park can play the hell out of shortstop and he has more raw power than he’s shown in games.
  • LHP James Reeves (24): The Yankees like Reeves enough that they brought him to Spring Training as a non-roster player this year. An elbow injury sidelined him for much of the season though. He had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts in 46 innings when healthy, and he profiles as a classic left-on-left matchup guy.
  • LHP Josh Rogers (23): Three-pitch lefty had a 3.24 ERA (3.38 FIP) with 21.7% strikeouts and 4.3% walks in 91.2 innings, mostly at High-A, before surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow ended his season. Rogers has gotten lost in the system’s pitching depth, but he’s a good prospect.
  • C Donny Sands (21): The conversion to catching isn’t going well so far, but there’s no reason to pull the plug yet. Sands did hit .276/.328/.374 (105 wRC+) with four homers in 93 Single-A games.
  • LHP Stephen Tarpley (24): The move to the bullpen worked wonders for Tarpley, who threw 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 26.9% strikeouts. He’s a left-on-left reliever candidate thanks to low-to-mid-90s heat and a good slider.
  • C Saul Torres (18): Torres didn’t hit much this year — he put up .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) line in 46 rookie ball games — but he’s the best defensive catcher in the system, and the consensus is there’s more offense coming.

OF Trey Amburgey, RHP Will Carter, OF Rashad Crawford, RHP Austin DeCarr, 1B Mike Ford, RHP Anyelo Gomez, RHP Nick Green, OF Jeff Hendrix, RHP Brady Lail, RHP Jose Mesa Jr., OF Leonardo Molina, RHP Jio Orozco, RHP Erik Swanson, and 1B Brandon Wagner all had varying levels of success in the minors this year and should be recognized as prospects, albeit fringe ones way down the organizational depth chart. Ford (Mariners), Gomez (Braves), and Mesa (Orioles) were all selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

* * *

The Yankees’ farm system inevitably took a hit in 2017. They had arguably the best system in baseball coming into the season and there was nowhere to go but down. The farm system took a hit for good reasons though. The Yankees graduated several players to the big leagues, almost all of whom had an impact right away. They also traded several quality prospects for MLB players, most of whom are under control for another few seasons. Seeing your system ranking drop because of graduations and trades is much more preferable to dropping due to poor performance and attrition.

Chances are the farm system will take another hit next season, when Torres likely reaches the big leagues and others like Andujar and Adams possibly exhaust their rookie eligibility. Overall though, the Yankees have become a player development machine the last few years, and that is the single biggest reason they are back to being a contender with such a bright long-term future.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2017 Season Review, Abi Avelino, Albert Abreu, Alex Palma, Anyelo Gomez, Austin DeCarr, Billy McKinney, Blake Rutherford, Brady Lail, Brandon Wagner, Brian Keller, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, Dietrich Enns, Dillon Tate, Domingo Acevedo, Donny Sands, Drew Finley, Dustin Fowler, Erik Swanson, Estevan Florial, Freicer Perez, Gleyber Torres, Gustavo Campero, Hoy Jun Park, Ian Clarkin, Isiah Gilliam, J.P. Feyereisen, Jake Cave, James Kaprielian, James Reeves, Jeff Hendrix, Jio Orozco, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jorge Guzman, Jorge Mateo, Jose Mesa Jr., Josh Rogers, JP Sears, Juan De Paula, Juan Then, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Holder, Leonardo Molina, Luis Medina, Matt Frawley, Matt Sauer, Mike Ford, Mike King, Nestor Cortes, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Nick Rumbelow, Nick Solak, Nolan Martinez, Oswaldo Cabrera, Pablo Olivares, Rashad Crawford, Roansy Contrera, Rony Garcia, Ryan McBroom, Saul Torres, Stephen Tarpley, Steven Sensley, Taylor Widener, Thairo Estrada, Tito Polo, Trevor Stephan, Trey Amburgey, Wilkerman Garcia, Will Carter, Yoiber Marquina, Zack Littell

Sorting out the projected 2017 Triple-A Scranton roster

February 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Home of the RailRiders. (EwingCole.com)
Home of the RailRiders. (EwingCole.com)

Over the last few seasons the Yankees and every other team in baseball have begun to use their Triple-A affiliate as an extension of their big league roster. They not only send relievers up and down whenever a fresh arm is needed, they’ll also shuttle platoon players in and out based on upcoming pitching matchups. Clubs look for every advantage possible, and these days that means having MLB and Triple-A roster flexibility.

The Yankees have built an exceptional farm system with many high-caliber prospects ticketed for Triple-A. They also have several big league roster openings with young players slated to compete in Spring Training. The refreshing emphasis on youth means projecting the 2017 Triple-A Scranton roster is damn near impossible, but that won’t stop me from trying. I do this every winter and I ain’t stoppin’ now.

Now that the non-roster invitees have been announced, let’s try to figure out what the RailRiders’ roster will look like on Opening Day. After all, these players are depth players for the Yankees, and inevitably we’re going to see many of them in MLB at some point. The top prospects get all the attention, understandably, but don’t sleep on the Chris Parmelees and Anthony Swarzaks of the world either. Those guys have a way of finding themselves in the Bronx.

Let’s begin by looking at position player candidates for the Triple-A Scranton roster. An asterisk (*) denotes the player is on the 40-man roster, which, in this situation, is kind of a big deal.

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Utility
Kyle Higashioka* Greg Bird* Aaron Judge* Tyler Austin*
Wilkin Castillo Ronald Torreyes* Mason Williams* Rob Refsnyder*
Francisco Diaz Ji-Man Choi Jake Cave Tyler Wade
Kellin Deglan Cito Culver Dustin Fowler
Mike Ford Clint Frazier
Pete Kozma
Donovan Solano
Ruben Tejada

I have 20 position players in the table and these days Triple-A rosters run 25 players deep. As recent as 2011, Triple-A and Double-A teams fielded only 24-man rosters. For real. It is not at all uncommon for Triple-A clubs to carry eight-man bullpens, especially early in the season when pitchers are still getting in the swing of things and also having their workloads monitored. We need to pare that list of 20 players down to 13 or even 12.

Catchers: Barring injury, the Yankees are set with Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine behind the plate at the big league level. Romine did an okay job as the full-time backup last year, and while I wouldn’t completely rule out Higashioka winning the job in camp, it would surprise me. Remember, Romine is out of minor league options, which means if he’s not the backup catcher, he’s out of the organization. (Even if he clears waivers, he’d likely elect free agency and look for a big league opportunity elsewhere.)

The odds are strongly in favor of Romine backing up Sanchez with Higashioka biding his time as the third string catcher in Triple-A. The real question is who will back up Higashioka? Castillo seems like the safe bet considering he’s a 32-year-old journeyman with (a little) big league experience and a ton of Triple-A experience. Diaz has two games of Triple-A experience and that’s it. Deglan has barely played above Single-A. Those two figure to be the Double-A Trenton catching tandem with Higashioka and Castillo in Scranton. That’s two of our 12 position player roster spots.

Infielders: Austin, Bird, and Refsnyder are essentially competing for two big league roster spots: the first base job and a bench job. Everyone wants Bird to win the first base job, including the Yankees themselves. But, if he needs more time to shake off the rust following shoulder surgery, a return trip to Scranton could very well be in the cards. Either way, one of these three players figures to start the season with the RailRiders while the other two are with the Yankees. My guess is Refsnyder winds up in Triple-A, but who knows. Three of our 12 Triple-A roster spots are now taken.

Back to Triple-A for Mr. Refsnyder? (Presswire)
Refsnyder. (Presswire)

Solano, Tejada, and Torreyes will all compete for the big league reserve infielder’s job in Spring Training, or at least appear to compete for the job. Maybe even Kozma too. Torreyes not only filled the role admirably last season, he’s also on the 40-man roster and the other three are not. That’s one heck of a tiebreaker. Torreyes can be sent to Triple-A, he has options remaining, it’s just hard to think he could lose the bench job in Spring Training. Lil’ Ronnie in the show with the other three in Scranton seems to be the most likely outcome here. That’s six Triple-A roster spots accounted for now.

Choi has big league time and while I suppose it’s not completely impossible he wins the big league first base job should Bird need more time in Triple-A, I’d bet against it. The big league service time all but ensures Choi will start the season in Scranton, not Double-A Trenton. That figures to spell bad news for Ford, who has played only 42 career games at the Double-A level. Hard to think the Yankees would send two pure first basemen to Scranton. Choi is position player number seven.

Before we found out the Yankees re-signed Kozma, the final Triple-A infield spot came down to Culver or Ford. Now neither of them figures to get a Triple-A roster spot. They’ll likely have to go back to Double-A to begin the season. Either that, or the RailRiders will carry a six-man bullpen, and there’s no chance of that happening.

Outfield: In a roundabout way, Judge and Williams are competing for one big league roster spot. Judge will be given every opportunity to win the starting right field job, but if the Yankees determine he’s not ready for it, he could wind up back in Triple-A. In that case, Aaron Hicks would presumably take over in right field and Williams would get the fourth outfielder’s job. I suppose it could go to Refsnyder or Austin, but I think the Yankees would want an actual outfielder on the bench. There’s the eighth position player. (Hicks, by the way, is out of options and can’t be sent to Triple-A.)

Frazier is a Triple-A lock because he reached the level last season and is a priority guy as a top prospect. The Yankees aren’t going to send him to Double-A to clear a roster spot because Culver has tenure in the organization or anything like that. Fowler is another high-end prospect who had a successful season at Double-A in 2016, so an assignment to Triple-A is the natural order of things. Cave is a Triple-A veteran and the logical candidate for the fourth outfield spot. Frazier, Fowler, and Cave are position players nine, ten, and eleven.

Utility: I listed Austin and Refsnyder as utility players only because they can play the infield and outfield. They were already covered in the infield section. Wade, who is primarily an infielder but started working out in the outfield in the Arizona Fall League, had a solid Double-A season a year ago, so, like Fowler, an assignment to Triple-A makes sense. Wade is out 12th and final Triple-A position player.

Let’s quickly recap everything we just went through:

  • Catchers (2): Higashioka and Castillo
  • Infielders (4): Choi, Kozma, Solano, and Tejada
  • Outfielders (4): Cave, Fowler, Frazier, and either Judge or Williams
  • Utility (2): Wade, and one of Bird, Austin, or Refsnyder

That’s a dozen position players right there, and I suppose if the RailRiders open the season with a normal seven-man bullpen, either Culver or Ford would make the team as the 13th position player. Probably Culver. I still expect an eight-man bullpen, at least initially.

The perfect world scenario for the Yankees is Bird and Judge winning the first base and right field jobs, respectively, and Austin beating out Refsnyder for a bench spot. So, assuming that happens, here are the projected Triple-A position players, with a batting order written out because why not?

1. SS Tyler Wade
2. CF Dustin Fowler
3. LF Clint Frazier
4. DH Rob Refsnyder
5. C Kyle Higashioka
6. 3B Donovan Solano
7. 1B Ji-Man Choi
8. 2B Ruben Tejada
9. RF Mason Williams

Bench: C Wilkin Castillo, IF Pete Kozma, OF Jake Cave

The batting order is just for fun. Don’t take it to heart. Remember, players are going move around. Refsnyder won’t always DH. Wade will undoubtedly see some time in the outfield. Frazier and Williams will probably see time in all three outfield spots. Heck, Solano and Tejada will probably roam around the infield too. These things are very fluid. That, however, is the projected Triple-A Scranton group of position players based on everything we know at the moment. Now let’s get to the pitchers.

Starters Righty Relievers Lefty Relievers
Luis Cessa* Johnny Barbato* Richard Bleier*
Dietrich Enns* Gio Gallegos* Chasen Shreve*
Chad Green* Ben Heller* Joe Mantiply
Ronald Herrera* Jonathan Holder* Jason Gurka
Bryan Mitchell* J.P. Feyereisen Evan Rutckyj
Luis Severino* Mark Montgomery
Chance Adams Matt Wotherspoon
Daniel Camarena
Kyle Haynes
Brady Lail
Jordan Montgomery

Lots of pitchers. Lots and lots of pitchers. There are 23 of ’em in the table, and if that sounds like a lot, consider the RailRiders used 37 different pitchers last season, including 22 different starters. They used 45 pitchers and 24 different starters in 2015. So yeah, 23 pitches in the table seems like a lot, but it’s maybe half as many as Scranton will need to get through the season. Before you know it they’ll be signing Phil Coke out of an independent league again. That’s baseball, yo.

Rotation: At the moment, the Yankees have to two open big league rotation spots, which Brian Cashman & Co. insist will go to two young pitchers. Cashman has specifically singled out Cessa, Green, Mitchell, and Severino as the candidates for those jobs. (Adam Warren too, but I don’t think he’ll actually open the season in the rotation unless all hell breaks loose in camp.) My money is on Severino and Cessa getting the rotation spots. We’ll see.

In theory, the Yankees would send the two losers of the rotation competition to Triple-A, where they would bide their time until they need another starter in the Bronx. Sounds simple enough. That’s not necessarily how it will work though. In 2014 the Yankees held a three-way competition for the long reliever job — not even a rotation spot, the long reliever spot — between Warren, David Phelps, and Vidal Nuno. The Yankees ended up carrying all three on the Opening Day roster because they were the best men for the job.

Who’s to say that, if Cessa and Severino were to win the two rotation spots, that Green and Mitchell wouldn’t be in the bullpen? That really complicates things and is why I included guys like Haynes and Lail in this exercise. More than a few of those 40-man roster Triple-A rotation candidates could wind up in the big league bullpen, creating a need for starters in Scranton. Geez, that’s a mouthful.

Severino. (Danna Stevens/Times Tribune)
Severino. (Danna Stevens/Times Tribune)

Anyway, this is what I think will happen: two of the Cessa/Green/Mitchell/Severino quartet get big league rotation spots and a third winds up in the bullpen as the long man. The fourth goes to Scranton as the de facto sixth starter. That means, based our table, we’re left with seven candidates for the four remaining Triple-A rotation spots: Adams, Camarena, Enns, Haynes, Herrera, Lail, and Montgomery.

Two of the four spots are easy. They’ll go to Adams and Montgomery, two of the better pitching prospects in the organization, both of whom are ready for Triple-A. (Montgomery thrived there in his brief stint last year.) Enns and Herrera are on the 40-man roster, which could give them a leg up for the final two Triple-A rotation spots. I do wonder whether the Yankees will move Enns to the bullpen since that’s likely his ultimate destination.

For now, I’m guessing Enns remains a starter, meaning Scranton’s five-man rotation to start the season will be, in whatever order, Adams, Enns, Herrera, Montgomery, and one of Cessa, Green Mitchell, or Severino. That leaves Camarena, Haynes, and Lail out in the cold. The projected Double-A rotation is pretty stacked (Ian Clarkin, Josh Rogers, Justus Sheffield, etc.) so it’s not as simple as bumping them down a level. Hmmm.

Bullpen: Right now, the Yankees have five big league bullpen spots accounted for: Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard, Tommy Layne, and Warren. Layne is out of options, so if he doesn’t make the big league bullpen, he’s probably out of the organization. No Triple-A for him. I assumed in the previous section one of the four young starters winds up in the bullpen, which means six of seven big league bullpen spots are accounted for in this little exercise.

I have 12 relievers in the table plus Camarena, Haynes, and Lail to consider, so that’s 15 pitchers total. One of those 15 is going to get the final big league bullpen spot, so it’s really 14 pitchers for eight Triple-A bullpen spots. In all likelihood one of the 40-man roster guys will get that last bullpen job with the Yankees. It doesn’t really matter which one, specifically. My money is on Bleier because the Yankees really seem to like him, but ultimately the name doesn’t matter.

Why doesn’t it matter? Because there are six 40-man relievers in that table, and whichever ones don’t get that final MLB bullpen spot will wind up in Triple-A, no questions asked. None of ’em are going to Double-A. That’s five Triple-A bullpen spots accounted for already, which leaves us nine pitchers for the final two or three bullpen spots (depending whether they carry a seven or eight-man bullpen): Camarena, Feyereisen, Gurka, Haynes, Lail, Mantiply, Montgomery, Rutckyj, and Wotherspoon.

The Yankees signed Gurka as a minor league free agent earlier this offseason and he has some big league bullpen time with the Rockies, so I think he gets a Triple-A bullpen spot. Cashman talked up Mantiply at the town hall two weeks ago and he has a tiny little bit of big league time too, so I think he gets a Triple-A bullpen spot as well. If the RailRiders employ an eight-man bullpen — and to be clear, the Yankees make that decision, not the RailRiders — I think it would be Feyereisen. Just a hunch. Camarena, Haynes, Lail, Montgomery, Rutckyj, and Wotherspoon end up in Double-A for the time being. (One or two might even get released.)

Alright, so after all of that, my projected 13-man Triple-A Scranton pitching staff shakes out like this:

  • Rotation (5): Adams, Enns, Herrera, Montgomery, and one of Cessa, Green, Mitchell, or Severino.
  • Bullpen (8): Feyereisen, Gurka, Mantiply, and five of Barbato, Bleier, Gallegos, Heller, Holder, or Shreve.

After going through all of that, I must point out the odds are strongly in favor of this post being a complete waste of time. Guys are going to get hurt in Spring Training, released before the end of camp, whatever. These things change and they change a lot. Trying to project the Triple-A Opening Day roster in late January is a fool’s errand, so I guess that makes me a fool.

I still think it can be instructive to go through this exercise each year, even though it’s prone to blowing up in my face. It’s good to get an idea of how the Triple-A roster will shake out, see where the Yankees have depth, and who the call-up candidates are at any given moment. I have a tendency to forget about Herrera, personally. Laying this all out is a good reminder that hey, he’s probably going to be in the Scranton rotation. So even though this is all very subject to change, I think we get a good grasp of what the Triple-A roster may look like come April.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Aaron Judge, Ben Heller, Brady Lail, Bryan Mitchell, Chad Green, Chance Adams, Chasen Shreve, Cito Culver, Clint Frazier, Daniel Camarena, Dietrich Enns, Donovan Solano, Dustin Fowler, Francisco Diaz, Gio Gallegos, Greg Bird, Jake Cave, Jason Gurka, Ji-Man Choi, Joe Mantiply, Johnny Barbato, Jonathan Holder, Jordan Montgomery, Kellin Deglan, Kyle Haynes, Kyle Higashioka, Luis Cessa, Luis Severino, Mark Montgomery, Mark Wotherspoon, Mason Williams, Mike Ford, Pete Kozma, Richard Bleier, Ronald Herrera, Ronald Torreyes, Ruben Tejada, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, Tyler Austin Rob Refsnyder, Tyler Wade, Wilkin Castillo

Three surprise 2017 Spring Training invitees and three notable omissions

February 2, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Camarena. (Del Mar Times)
Camarena. (Del Mar Times)

Twelve days from now pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa, and the Yankees will officially open Spring Training. Hooray for that. Earlier this week the Yankees announced their list of 23 non-roster invitees to camp. Some are top prospects (Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier), some are journeymen (Pete Kozma, Jason Gurka), and others are there just to catch bullpen sessions (Kellin Deglan, Jorge Saez).

As always, some non-roster invitees are more notable than others. Some are flat out surprises. There were no reports the Yankees had re-signed Kozma this offseason, for example, so seeing his name among the non-roster players was a surprise. And, of course, there are always some notable omissions each year. Last spring Tyler Austin did not get an invite to big league camp after being designated for assignment and clearing waivers the previous September. His stock was down. Way down.

So, with that in mind, let’s look at three of this year’s biggest surprise non-roster invitees and three of the most notable omissions from big league camp.

Three Surprise Invitees

LHP Daniel Camarena: Two weeks ago I mentioned the 24-year-old Camarena as a potential longtime minor leaguer turned prospect for this coming season, a la Kyle Higashioka last year and Ben Gamel the year before, so I’m glad to see him getting an invite. (Validation!) I still didn’t expect it though. Camarena had a fine 2016, throwing 147 innings with a 3.55 ERA (3.52 FIP) at mostly Double-A. He struck out 19.8% of batters faced and walked 4.2%. That’s a nice bounceback season. Camarena missed all of 2015 after having bone spurs removed from his elbow. He’s not a top prospect by any means, but a three-pitch lefty with good command is worth keeping an eye on. The Yankees liked what they saw from Camarena last season enough to give him his first invite to big league camp this year. (It’s worth noting he can become a minor league free agent after 2017.)

RHP Brady Lail: Lail, 23, was a non-roster invitee last spring. He only threw two Grapefruit League innings, but he was there. That speaks to his standing in the organization at the time. Lail was considered a potential call-up candidate. His 2016 season didn’t go so well — he had a 4.34 ERA (4.27 FIP) in 137 total innings, including a 5.07 ERA (4.50 FIP) in 92.1 innings at Triple-A — and he kinda got lost in shuffle later in the season, but the Yankees still like Lail enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster player again this year. They have plenty of arms. He’s not there as a roster filler or anything. It can be easy to overlook Lail given all the quality pitching prospects the Yankees have right now, but the Yankees still believe in him. He wouldn’t be in camp otherwise.

LHP Evan Rutckyj: Last spring Rutckyj was in camp with the Braves as a Rule 5 Draft pick. He didn’t make the team, was returned to the Yankees, then became a minor league free agent after the season. New York re-signed the 25-year-old and invited him to their big league camp for the first time. Rutckyj missed most of last season with a minor elbow injury — he returned in mid-August and threw ten innings in the regular season — but the year before he had a 2.63 ERA (2.59 FIP) with 31.5% strikeouts and 8.1% walks in 61.2 innings at High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. We know the Yankees are looking for a cheap lefty reliever. Even if he doesn’t win an Opening Day roster spot, Rutckyj could put himself in position for an early season call up should the Richard Bleiers and Chasen Shreves and Joe Mantiplys (Mantipli?) of the world not work out.

Three Notable Omissions

Cave. (AP)
Cave. (AP)

OF Jake Cave: Like Rutckyj, Cave was a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring. He was in camp with the Reds, and again like Rutckyj, he didn’t make the team, so he was returned to the Yankees. Cave had a good 2016 season with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton, hitting .274/.339/.435 (119 wRC+) with nine homers and seven steals in 124 games. You’d think a young (24) left-handed hitting, good defending outfielder would get a non-roster invite to camp, but nope. You’d also think that player would get popped again in this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft as a potential cheap fourth outfielder, but again nope. Any team could have selected Cave in the Rule 5 Draft and kept him long-term — as a two-time Rule 5 guy, Cave would have been able to elect free agency rather than return to the Yankees, allowing him to re-sign with his new team and remain on the 40-man, even in Triple-A — yet it didn’t happen. Cave might not even have a starting spot in Scranton this year. The lack of a non-roster invite suggests his days in the organization are numbered.

RHP Branden Pinder: This is trivial, though I couldn’t help but notice Nick Rumbelow received a non-roster invite to camp and Pinder did not. Both are currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and they figure to be on similar timetables — Rumbelow had his surgery on April 19th and Pinder had his on April 26th — yet one got a non-roster invite and the other did not. Hmmm. Is this is an indication Rumbelow is further along in his rehab? Perhaps it has to do with their contract statuses. Pinder was outrighted back in November. Rumbelow was released and re-signed. Maybe Rumbelow leveraged an opportunity with another team into a non-roster invite with the Yankees. Pinder didn’t have that same opportunity because he was never actually a free agent. This isn’t a huge deal in the grand scheme of things. Chances are neither guy will pitch in spring games anyway, but the difference between big league camp and minor league camp is pretty substantial. Better lodging, more meal money … it can mean a lot to a young player.

RHP Dillon Tate: I’m not completely shocked Tate isn’t coming to camp as a non-roster player. He wasn’t great statistically last season (4.56 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 92.2 innings), and, more importantly, his stuff and mechanics were all over the place. The Yankees moved him to the bullpen to simplify things after the trade, and they’re reportedly moving him back into the rotation this year, which is the smart thing to do. I still thought there was a chance they would bring Tate to Spring Training, even if only to show him off for a Grapefruit League inning or two. Tate, 22, was the headliner in the Carlos Beltran trade — you could argue only Clint Frazier was a bigger “name” prospect among those acquired by the Yankees last summer — and I thought the Yankees would want the big league coaches to get to know him a bit. He’ll have to wait until next year to get his first taste of big league camp.

* * *

The Yankees have a very deep farm system and it’s just not possible for them to invite all their big name prospects. There are only so many innings and at-bats to go around. Blake Rutherford, for example, is a 19-year-old kid fresh out of high school. You won’t see many players fitting that description in big league camp around the league in any year. Ian Clarkin, Domingo Acevedo, and Albert Abreu have yet to pitch above Single-A. Billy McKinney? He hasn’t shown enough to deserve to come to big league camp. Non-roster invites aren’t arbitrary. There’s a method to this madness.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Brady Lail, Branden Pinder, Daniel Camarena, Dillon Tate, Evan Rutckyj, Jake Cave

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