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March 19th Spring Training Notes: Betances, Hicks, Gregorius, Gonzalez

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The Yankees beat the Rays this afternoon. I didn’t realize this until it was mentioned on the YES Network broadcast, but the Yankees have the best Spring Training record in baseball at 15-6-4. They haven’t lost a game since March 8th. Huh. Anyway, Greg Bird hit a home run today and Gary Sanchez had two nearly identical rocket doubles into the right-center field gap. Giancarlo Stanton doubled down the line and Aaron Judge picked up his first single of 2019. I was kinda hoping to see him get through the entire spring with extra-base hits only. Alas.

Chad Green allowed one run on two hits in his one inning as the opener thanks in part to a Judge error. “If it comes up during the year, let’s prepare for it now so it’s not anything new for us when the games start,” said Green to Erik Boland when asked about being an opener. Aaron Boone told Jack Curry there is a “good chance” they’ll use an opener at some point this year. Luis Cessa followed Green and was excellent, allowing two hits and striking out five in four scoreless innings. He’s had a great spring (17 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 K). Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are today’s notes:

  • In case you missed it earlier, Dellin Betances will begin the regular season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. That explains the missing velocity. Betances said he’s “not too concerned” and added he will resume throwing in 3-5 days. [Coley Harvey]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) said he is pain-free following the second cortisone shot. That’s good news, but Hicks said he was also pain-free following the first shot, and it wasn’t until he tried to swing a bat that it bothered him. Hicks said he’s been diagnosed with muscular “chronic back pain,” which is better than a spinal issue. [James Wagner, Lindsey Adler]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has graduated to hitting off a tee. He is two or three weeks away from hitting a baseball that actually moves. “It’s been way better than expected. There have been no problems,” he said. So far, so good. [George King]
  • The recently signed Gio Gonzalez arrived in camp today. “Wearing pinstripes for the first time is pretty exciting. I never thought in my wildest dreams I’d be a Yankee,” he said. Gonzalez threw 88 pitches in a simulated game yesterday and won’t get into a Grapefruit League game until this weekend. [Jon Heyman, Brendan Kuty]

The Yankees will make the long road trip across the state to play the Astros tomorrow afternoon. Jonathan Holder will be the opener for that game. I have no idea who is coming out of the bullpen after him. It won’t be Masahiro Tanaka (started yesterday), James Paxton or Jonathan Loaisiga (started Sunday’s split squad games), J.A. Happ (started Saturday), or Domingo German (starting Thursday). I guess it’ll be a surprise. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

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(Presswire)

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

  1. Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
  2. Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
  3. Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
  4. Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
  5. Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
    (MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

[Read more…]

March 12th: Spring Training Notes: Hicks, Sabathia, Paxton, Gregorius, Heller, Ellsbury, Roster Cuts

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The Yankees rallied in the eighth inning to beat the Orioles tonight. Miguel Andujar had three hits and made a nice defensive play going to his right. Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, and Kyle Higashioka all hit home runs. Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Troy Tulowitzki all had base hits as well. Trey Amburgey’s bases loaded walk and Clint Frazier’s sacrifice fly contributed to the three-run eighth inning rally.

Jonathan Loaisiga got the start and gosh, it did not go well. He really labored in the second inning and finished the night having allowed six runs (five earned) in two innings. It would behoove him to pitch well in his final two Grapefruit League appearances. Jonathan Holder allowed a solo homer in an otherwise uneventful night for the big league relievers. Zack Britton threw two innings. Holder, Chad Green, and Aroldis Chapman threw one each. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Spring Training:

  • Aaron Hicks (back) received a cortisone shot yesterday. He admitted he still had limited mobility when he took swings Sunday. Aaron Boone said Hicks could return to game action this coming weekend. “Something like this lingering, we had to do something about it,” Hicks said, adding he can always go to minor league camp to get a bunch of at-bats before Opening Day, if necessary. [Bryan Hoch, James Wagner]
  • CC Sabathia faced hitters for the first time this spring in a short live batting practice session. Only three hitters. Here’s some video. Also, James Paxton threw a simulated game. He was away from the team this past weekend following a death in his family. [Kristie Ackert, Pete Caldera]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has progressed to take dry swings with a regular bat. He was swinging a fungo bat last week. Gregorius will begin hitting off a tee in a week or two. Until then, dry swings only. [Bryan Hoch]
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery) is ten bullpen sessions into his throwing program and is about six weeks away from pitching in rehab games. He’s throwing fastballs and changeups only now. He’ll introduce sliders into his throwing program next week. [DJ Eberle]
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) is expected to join the Yankees on Sunday. He’s still in rehab mode and only recently started running on flat ground. Ellsbury is still a ways away from baseball activity, let alone playing in games. [Brendan Kuty]
  • More roster cuts: Chance Adams, Trey Amburgey, Cale Coshow, Kellin Deglan, Thairo Estrada, Danny Farquhar, Mike Ford, and Joe Harvey have all been sent to minor league camp, the Yankees announced. I count 50 players in big league camp now.

If you’re interested and will be up early, tonight’s game will be replayed on MLB Network at 6am ET tomorrow. The Yankees have another night game tomorrow night. That’s a home game against the Phillies. Masahiro Tanaka is starting and the game will not be televised.

What if there was a Division Series MVP?

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Two-time ALDS MVP Bernie Williams (Getty Images)

You’ve likely come to this fine website for astute baseball analysis, but allow me a modicum of whimsy.

I recently found out that in Alex Rodriguez’s original 10-year deal with the Rangers, there was a standard awards clause, giving out bonuses if he achieved various results. This awards clause was curious, however, as it included a bonus for Division Series MVP.

There is no Division Series MVP. There has never been a Division Series MVP. There is no good reason for a Division Series MVP … but what if MLB gave it out anyway?

Would A-Rod have won one or two ALDS MVPs with the Yankees? Almost assuredly. Therefore, I went back through all of the Yankees’ ALDS victories and determined the rightful winner of this non-existent award. First up, 1996.

1996 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

The King of the Division Series, Bernie Williams caught fire in the 1996 ALDS. He posted the highest WPA of any non-reliever and went 7-for-15 with three home runs. When you add further context, it simply gets better.

Bernie singled and scored the game-tying run in the eighth inning of Game 2 as the Yankees trailed the series. He homered in the first inning of Game 3 before tying it late with a sacrifice fly. Finally, he tied and capped the clincher with his final homer of the series. Enough said!

1998 ALDS MVP: Shane Spencer

Shane Spencer should not get this award. He was going to be a replacement player in 1995 and, in more relevant arguments, only played two games in this series.

But he hit two dingers!

The Yankees gave up just one run over three games with Davids Wells and Cone alongside Andy Pettitte dominating. However, I’m not going to give this to three people at once. I’m not going to split this award either. This has to go to one player and Spencer is it.

Spencer homered to put the Yanks ahead in Game 2 before singling and scoring two innings later. In Game 3, his three-run homer in the sixth inning put the game, and thus the series, out of reach. Normally, this isn’t enough for a series MVP, but it’s enough here.

1999 ALDS MVP: Royce Clayton

Royce Clayton didn’t play for the Yankees. What? I’ll explain.

This is the type of series why this award does not exist. The Yankees won the series in a rout with a 14-1 lead in aggregate and only one semi-interesting game in the middle.

I just couldn’t bring myself to award any particular Yankee. Derek Jeter went 5-for-11 with a double, triple and two walks. Mariano Rivera had two saves and three innings pitched. Bernie had six RBI and went 4-for-11 after pouring it on late in a blowout Game 1.

So I’m giving it to Clayton, the Rangers’ shortstop. He went 0-for-10 in the series, distinguishing himself among the Rangers’ hitters, who only mustered 14 hits and a .152/.228/.207 collective batting line. Yuck.

2000 ALDS MVP: Mariano Rivera

You could give Rivera about four of these awards (1996, 1998-2000, 2003). He has to get at least one, in my award-giving opinion, and this was his most impactful series.

Rivera saved all three wins in the 2000 ALDS — which went the distance — and threw five important innings along the way. He gave up just two hits, walked no one and struck out two Athletics.

Though all three of his saves came in multi-run victories, Rivera entered Games 2, 3 and 5 with the tying run at the plate and deftly navigated each situation. Game 5 was essentially a six-run first inning followed by scratching and clawing to get to Rivera. Let’s call this one a unanimous selection.

2001 ALDS MVP: Derek Jeter

Jorge Posada has been overlooked for his entire career. Perhaps not as much as Williams recently as Posada made the “Core Four” but based on his Hall of Fame vote totals and by playing next to Rivera and Jeter, he didn’t get the credit he deserved.

And by the numbers, he should be the 2001 ALDS MVP. He went 8-for-18, hit the homer for the lone run of the pivotal Game 3 to turnaround the series. He compiled a 1.167 OPS.

But the Flip Play happened.

You can’t ignore the play and Jeter would have won easily on that narrative if they’d given out the award back then. Doesn’t hurt that he matched Posada with an 8-for-18 series.

Sorry, Jorge. I tried.

2003 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

Going just on raw numbers, Jeter would win again. He went 6-for-14 with four walks, a homer and a 1.198 OPS. However, the homer was meaningless and he already stole the award from Posada.

Outside of a loss in Game 1, this was reminiscent of the 1998 and 99 ALDS with three good starts in a row, but no one of the starters can get the award. Rivera could once again win this, but he’s not going to be the first two-time award winner here.

Therefore, we’re going with Williams, who was at the center of the action in the three wins. He hit a sac fly to put the Yankees up in Game 2 early, scored the go-ahead run and knocked in an insurance run in Game 3 and put the team up to start the knockout rally in Game 4.

2004 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

The whole point of this exercise was to get the obscenely wealthy Rodriguez his extra $100,000 or so and he gets it right off the bat.

A-Rod essentially wins it for Game 2 alone, as the Yankees knotted up the series in dramatic fashion. He homered in the fifth to put NYY up one before extending the lead with a single in the seventh. After a rare Mariano Rivera meltdown, the game went to extras and the Yankees trailed in the 12th. Don’t worry, Joe Nathan came on for the save and Rodriguez hit a game-tying, ground-rule double and set up the winning run two batters later.

After a quiet Game 3, he went 2-for-4 with two walks in Game 4 and scored the series-clinching run in the 11th inning by doubling off Kyle Lohse, stealing third base and scoring on a wild pitch.

2009 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

While A-Rod already got his bonus for the 2004 series, the 2009 ALDS was his piece de resistance. It was an undisputed masterpiece. He had two RBI singles in Game 1 to pad the Yankees’ lead en route to 7-2 win. He hit a tying homer in Game 3 to lead another comeback win.

But this is all you really need to know.

Other players had good series then, but no one neared Rodriguez’s peak in this one. This was the best all-time ALDS for a position player.

2010 ALDS MVP: Curtis Granderson

In a three-game series, the MVP comes down to one game, if not one moment. There isn’t enough time for a starting pitcher to go twice, so whoever makes the play or comes through with the key hit would earn it. This is precisely the reason why there’s no ALDS MVP in reality, 2009 A-Rod being a supernova exception.

With two men on and two outs and the Yankees down 3-2 on the road, Curtis Granderson came to the plate against Francisco Liriano, who was 100 pitches into his start. This was a guy coming off a career year facing Granderson, who could barely make contact against lefties.

But Granderson smacked a ball to right-center that carried. And carried. In most parks, it would have left, but it went for a triple to put the Yankees in front. Mark Teixeira hit the game-winning homer an inning later, but Granderson’s shot was the turning point where it came apart for Minnesota.

Tex has a cogent argument for MVP, but I’m handing it to Grandy after he put up better overall numbers, going 5-for-11 with a double, the triple, three RBI and a walk in a precursor to his near-MVP season.

2012 ALDS MVP: CC Sabathia

Raul Ibanez stole the headlines in this series with his two Game 3 homers and his go-ahead single in Game 5. Normally, just those moments would be enough to win the short series MVP.

But CC Sabathia won two games nearly by himself and shut down the Orioles’ hopes of an upset, even with Ibanez’s advantage in WPA (0.90 to 0.84). CC threw 8 2/3rds in Game 1 of a closely-contested matchup and went the distance in Game 5.

Game 5 was likely the last peak CC Sabathia game. He’s had some big playoff moments since, but he hasn’t been the ace or workhorse in the regular season or playoffs after that game. He threw 121 pitches, allowed just six baserunners and held Baltimore to one run, striking out nine. He capped it off by throwing out a runner at first and clinching the series. Well done, big man!

2017 ALDS MVP: Didi Gregorius

There wasn’t a clear statistical victor in this one. Sabathia had a solid Game 5 and underrated Game 2, but he didn’t get the win in either start and wasn’t dominant. Nearly every hitter and reliever had a big moment, but no one stood out. Aroldis Chapman would have been an OK choice if one player didn’t steal the show in Game 5.

And it was Didi Gregorius who stole said show in the winner-take-all finale. His two home runs off Corey Kluber were enough to give the Yankees the series. I still get goosebumps watching this.

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If there was an ALDS MVP, history looks more favorably upon A-Rod, who was often destroyed for his playoff woes. Rivera, Williams and Jeter get their just due for postseason excellence that wrapped into two decades. Meanwhile, one or two hits get Spencer and Gregorius immortality while the lack of a hit dooms Clayton into shame.

P.S. Sorry again to Posada.

March 9th Spring Training Notes: Opening Day starter, Hicks, Gregorius, Sabathia, Frazier

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The Yankees doubled and defensed their way to a win over the Orioles tonight. Tyler Wade, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Billy Burns all had two-baggers. Angel Aguilar socked a dinger and Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird both had singles. Sanchez’s was a ground ball that deflected off the diving third baseman’s glove and through the shortstop’s legs, so yeah, woo Spring Training. The Yankees turned in several stellar defensive plays as well. Total opposite of last night, when they kicked the ball around.

Luis Cessa started and looked about as good as he’s looked at any point in his big league career. Thirteen up, 12 down, four strikeouts. He filled up the strike zone with everything. Looked great. Maybe it’ll last this time. Albert Abreu labored and walked three in his 1.1 innings. Phil Diehl struck out two of the five batters he faced. He’s struck out nine of the 19 batters he’s faced this spring, or 47.4%. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • It is official: Masahiro Tanaka will start Opening Day. Aaron Boone made the announcement earlier today. It’ll be his fourth Opening Day start in the last five years. James Paxton and J.A. Happ will start the second and third games of the regular season, respectively. [Kristie Ackert]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has started taking dry swings. Hooray for that. “He’s doing some dry swinging. He’s already started a little bit with the fungo. Real bat? Probably the first of next week. It’s kind of a graduation there,” said Boone. Good news. [Kristie Ackert]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) is still experiencing discomfort and will see a doctor Monday. It sure sounds like the issue everyone insists is nothing is turning into something. Good thing there’s still more than two weeks to go until Opening Day. [James Wagner]
  • CC Sabathia (knee) threw 31 pitches in his fourth bullpen session of the spring earlier today. He’s likely to face hitters in live batting practice next. Progress. [Associated Press]
  • Boone seemed to indicate Clint Frazier will begin the season with Triple-A Scranton. “He needs to play every day. That doesn’t necessarily mean (the at-bats) don’t come here. We expect him to impact our club this year,” said Boone. [George King]
  • And finally, Paxton will be away from the Yankees for a few days. There was a death in his family. Our condolences go out to him and his family. [George King]

If you’re interested, tonight’s game will be replayed on MLB Network (2am ET). The Yankees have a pair of split squad games tomorrow afternoon. Sadly, neither game will be televised. J.A. Happ will start the home game against the Pirates and Nestor Cortes will start the road game against the Tigers. Randy Miller has the travel squad roster. Not many regulars, as you’d expect.

March 2nd Spring Training Notes: Gregorius, Diehl, Kahnle, Cessa, Severino, Positioning

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(Presswire)

A ninth inning comeback fell short against the Pirates this afternoon. Danny Farquhar made his Grapefruit League debut and got hammered (five runs and one out), but who cares? It’s Spring Training and the guy nearly died last year. Farquhar’s family was in attendance and the crowd gave him a nice hand as he walked off the field. “Obviously the results weren’t great, but I’d call it a good day. I’ve never been high-fived so much for giving up five runs in my career,” he told Bryan Hoch after the game.

Luis Cessa started and allowed one run in three innings. He struck out four. Troy Tulowitzki, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, and Estevan Florial (two) all banged doubles. Tulowitzki and Bird have been great in the early going. Hopefully it lasts. Andujar had a single in addition to his double. Tyler Wade had a tough game, going 0-for-4. His lost 208 points of batting average in one day (.625 to .417). Here is the box score and here are today’s notes from Tampa:

  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) is scheduled to see the doctor at some point in the next ten days. If everything checks out okay, he could be cleared to start swinging a bat two-handed. “Everything has gone really well,” said Aaron Boone. Sir Didi would start with dry swings and tee work, then progress from there. So far, so good though. [George King]
  • Lefty relief prospect Phil Diehl exited today’s game after taking a line drive to the upper back. He said he’s fine after the game except for the seams imprinted on his skin. Ouch. “He’s a tough kid. He’s fearless. I wasn’t surprised when I went out there and he’s like, ‘I’m fine,’ with a smile on his face. But he’s been one of those guys who’s really shined for us. He’s opened up some eyes,” said Boone. Diehl’s fanned seven of the 12 batters he’s faced this spring. [Lindsey Adler, Erik Boland]
  • Tommy Kahnle struck out all three batters he faced last night and Boone said he looks better now than he did at any point last year. His fastball was 95-97 mph last night, which is promising given that it is still early in Spring Training and his heater averaged 95.5 mph last year. [Bryan Hoch]
  • Boone said Cessa has a “real opportunity” to make the Opening Day roster as a long man. I’d like to see what he could do as one-inning air-it-out guy, but long reliever it is. Cessa would have to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A, which may factor into the roster decision. [Bryan Hoch]
  • Luis Severino will indeed make his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday. The Yankees held him back a bit this spring after his big workload the last two years. Tuesday’s start lines Severino up perfectly for Opening Day with an extra day of rest between each spring start. [Erik Boland]
  • The Yankees will have their infielders carry cards with positioning notes this year. Outfielders have done it for years. Now infielders will too. The Yankees were positioned well last year. Their numbers with the shift were pretty good. Boone called the cards a “little safety net” more than anything because communication from the dugout comes first. [Brendan Kuty]

The Yankees have a pair of split squad games tomorrow afternoon and, thankfully, both games will be televised live. It’s been almost a full week since the last Yankees broadcast. Masahiro Tanaka is starting at home against the Tigers while Domingo German gets the ball on the road against the Blue Jays.

A Partial Contract Season for Sir Didi [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

The 2019 Yankees suffered their first major injury in October 2018. During Game Two of the ALDS, Didi Gregorius blew out his elbow on a throw to the plate, and after the series the Yankees announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery. Sir Didi played with his torn elbow ligament for the remainder of the series. Turns out there was a good excuse for those uncharacteristically wild throws in Games Three and Four.

Gregorius tore his ulnar collateral ligament on this play, specifically:

“I already knew (I would need surgery) as soon as it happened on that play in Boston,” said Gregorius to Ken Davidoff back in December. “I already knew it was going to happen. I told them I’m playing. I don’t care what they say.”

Gregorius turned 29 earlier this week and he had his Tommy John surgery on October 17th. He is right on track with his rehab so far. Gregorius started a throwing program last week and he’s expected to be cleared to swing a bat two-handed following his next doctor’s visit in early March. So far, so good with his rehab.

Short of signing Manny Machado, replacing Gregorius was going to be impossible this winter. He’s gotten better and better each year with the Yankees, and last season he put up a .268/.335/.494 (121 wRC+) batting line with 27 homers in 134 games around a heel injury. Good defensive shortstops who can hit like that are hard to find. Didi is, rather easily, the team’s best pure left-handed offensive threat.

The typical Tommy John surgery rehab for position players is much shorter than it is for pitchers. The Yankees will be without Gregorius for some length of time this year but they do expect him to return and play a good chunk of the season. Troy Tulowitzki will play shortstop for the time being. Time to preview Sir Didi’s already injured-shortened 2019 season.

When might he return?

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius last week. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

Tommy John surgery is not especially common for position players and infielders especially. Most position player Tommy John surgeries involve catchers or outfielders. Jon Roegele’s Tommy John surgery database includes ten non-first base Major League infielders with known surgery dates. Here’s how long it took them to return to the big leagues:

Surgery Date Return Date Days to Return
Rafael Furcal March 13th, 2013 June 13th, 2014 409
Randy Velarde April 8th, 1997 May 13th, 1998 400
Paul Molitor May 21st, 1984 April 9th, 1985 323
Kelly Johnson June 1st, 2006 April 2nd, 2007 305
Cesar Izturis Sept. 16th, 2005 June 20th, 2006 277
Mike Aviles July 7th, 2009 April 8th, 2010 275
Ray Olmedo Nov. 9th, 2004 June 28th, 2005 231
Tony Womack Oct. 6th, 2003 April 5th, 2004 182
T.J. Rivera Sept. 14th, 2017 Pending
Corey Seager May 4th, 2018 Pending

It’s a small sample, and even within that sample we run into other problems. Molitor, Johnson, and Aviles returned to game action on Opening Day, though they participated in Spring Training, so they likely would’ve returned earlier had the timing worked out better. Womack? Good gravy he came back fast. He had his surgery soon after the end of the regular season and was back on the field for Opening Day. We know Gregorius won’t do that.

There are some cautionary tales here. Rivera dealt with several setbacks and still hasn’t returned from his elbow reconstruction. Furcal and Velarde were slowed during their rehab as well. To me, the most relevant players here are Izturis and Olmedo. They had their surgeries late in the year and returned the next year without being rushed (like Womack), without a setback (like Furcal and Velarde), and without having to wait around for Opening Day (like Molitor, Johnson, and Aviles).

Izturis needed a little more than nine months to make it back. Olmedo made it back in just under eight months. An 8-9 month timetable puts Gregorius on track to return somewhere in mid-June to mid-July. There’s (somewhat) recent precedent for that. I think the Yankees and Gregorius would sign up for 8-9 months right now. That means getting him back for half the season and maybe a little more.

Ultimately, every rehab is different. By all accounts Didi’s rehab is going well and it could be that he makes it back quicker than Izturis or Olmedo. It’s almost possible he’ll feel a twinge at some point and need to slow things down. The hope is Gregorius will start swinging a bat in the middle of next month. That means he’s likely to miss at least two months of the regular season once you factor in the necessary rehab games.

What should we expect when he comes back?

With a healthy elbow, there’s every reason to believe Gregorius will come back as the same player he was before Tommy John surgery. He’s in his prime, so age-related decline is not a concern. I’m more worried about his defense, specifically his throwing arm, than his bat post-elbow surgery, and worried isn’t the right word. I just mean that, if we see some lingering effects of the injury, it’ll probably be on throws more than swings.

Since I have the numbers in front of me, here’s what those Major Leaguer infielders who had Tommy John surgery did in their last full season before surgery (their last healthy season, in theory) and in the year they returned (so we can see the immediate aftermath). I’m leaving out Rivera and Seager because they haven’t returned yet (duh).

 Age at TJS Year before TJS Year back from TJS
Rafael Furcal 35 85 OPS+ and +1.3 WAR (121 G) 25 OPS+ and -0.2 WAR (9 G)
Randy Velarde 34 104 OPS+ and +2.1 WAR (136 G) 102 OPS+ and +0.5 WAR (51 G)
Paul Molitor 27 110 OPS+ and +4.6 WAR (152 G) 110 OPS+ and +4.6 WAR (140 G)
Kelly Johnson 24 91 OPS+ and +1.4 WAR (87 G) 116 OPS+ and +3.7 WAR (147 G)
Cesar Izturis 26 88 OPS+ and +3.8 WAR (159 G) 57 OPS+ and +0.9 WAR (110 G)
Mike Aviles 28 121 OPS+ and +4.7 WAR (102 G) 104 OPS+ and +1.5 WAR (110 G)
Ray Olmedo 23 49 OPS+ and -0.6 WAR (79 G) 62 OPS+ and -0.6 WAR (54 G)
Tony Womack 33 71 OPS+ and +0.5 WAR (153 G) 91 OPS+ and +3.3 WAR (145 G)

For the most part, our little Tommy John surgery group came back well immediately following surgery, at least relative to who they were before the injury. Furcal was at the end of the line — those nine games he played following Tommy John surgery were the final nine games of his career — and Olmedo was a utility guy who never produced much. Izturis was always glove over bat as well.

Again, every player and every rehab is unique, so Gregorius is not guaranteed to come back as strong as some of those players in the table. To me, it is comforting to see that this group didn’t collectively fall off the table in their first year back from surgery. They completed their rehab and went back to being the player they were before Tommy John surgery. Sir Didi is very good and the little bit of information we have about Major League infielders having elbow reconstruction tells us he is likely to again be very good after surgery.

What about his upcoming free agency?

The Tommy John surgery came at an unfortunate time for Gregorius and the Yankees. I mean, there’s never a good time for Tommy John surgery, but in this case, the injury happened right as Gregorius was set to enter his contract year. He won’t have a fully healthy contract year and the injury surely complicated any contract extension talks with the team. The Yankees and Didi avoided arbitration with a one-year deal and that’s it.

Following the recent Luis Severino deal, Brian Cashman said the Yankees have discussed extensions with other players without providing any details. I have to think Gregorius is among those players. The Yankees love him — seriously, what’s not to love? — and above-average two-way shortstops in the prime of their career are hard to find. The injury stinks, but I don’t think it’ll be a dealbreaker.

“I’m not going to say on individual cases,” Cashman said to Erik Boland when asked about possible extensions following Severino’s deal last week. “We’ve approached certain players and we are always open for the right people to do things and find common ground if that’s at all possible. We’ve had conversations with some, not all, but if they lead to multi-years, great, this one did. Other attempts so far have failed.”

The Yankees could sign Gregorius to an extension that begins in 2020 without changing his 2019 luxury tax number ($11.75M). They couldn’t do that with Severino because Severino had not yet agreed to a 2019 contract. That’s what the arbitration hearing would’ve decided. Gregorius has a 2019 contract. The extension can begin next year and save the team some luxury tax money this year.

Given where we are now, I think the Yankees are going to wait to see how Gregorius bounces back from Tommy John surgery before getting serious about contract extension talks, unless of course he’s willing to sign a sweetheart deal. Didi is awesome, but free agency is squeezing even awesome players. Going out into the open market with Tommy John surgery in the recent past is probably kinda scary.

In a normal free agent climate, Gregorius could’ve sought something along the lines of Jean Segura’s five-year, $70M contract. In this free agent climate, and after Tommy John surgery, does he even get three years and $13M annually? Zack Cozart hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 homers and +5.0 WAR in 2017, became a free agent when he was one year older than Gregorius will be when he becomes a free agent, and he received three years and $38M. Hmmm.

If the Yankees do sign Gregorius to an extension at some point soon, I think it would be along the lines of the Cozart deal. Gregorius gets the guaranteed payday and doesn’t have to worry about finding work so soon after Tommy John surgery and in a rough free agent market. If the two sides wait for an extension, well, who knows? He could return and crush the ball, and raise his stock. Or he could struggle and see his stock fall. That’d be a bummer.

* * *

The top priority right now is helping Gregorius complete his Tommy John surgery rehab. Both he and the Yankees have said he won’t came back early as a DH — “I want to be back completely. I just want to make sure everything’s all right before I go out there. I haven’t even thought about hitting before everything,” he said recently — because there’s no sense in rushing him. It’s too risky, especially for Gregorius personally.

Tommy John surgery may seem routine  but it is not a minor surgery. Lots can go wrong. The good news is Gregorius is doing well with his rehab and is on track to return to the team sometime around midseason, though the Yankees continue to decline to provide an estimated return date. I don’t blame them. Remember the “we expect Aaron Judge back in three weeks” fiasco from last year? Yeah. No need to put a date on it right now.

Losing Gregorius hurts the Yankees on both sides of the ball. He is their top left-handed bat and their best defensive infielder. We can guesstimate that he’ll return sometime in mid-June or mid-July, though that is hardly set in stone, much like Tulowitzki being a competent stopgap. The sooner Sir Didi returns, the better it will be for him and his impending free agency, and the better it’ll be for the Yankees. Just don’t expect them to be reckless and rush his rehab.