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Update: Didi Gregorius undergoes Tommy John surgery

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(Presswire)

October 17th: Gregorius had his Tommy John surgery today, the Yankees announced. The surgery went “as expected.” It was performed by Dr. David Altchek in New York. The Yankees did not announce a timetable for his return. They’ve been out of that game since the “Aaron Judge will return to game action in three weeks” fiasco. Gregorius is expected back sometime next summer.

October 12th: The 2019 Yankees have already suffered a big blow. Earlier this afternoon the Yankees announced Didi Gregorius will undergo Tommy John surgery. No surgery date has been set but it will happen soon. Gregorius experienced discomfort in the elbow during the ALDS and went for an MRI earlier this week.

Neither Aaron Boone nor Brian Cashman could pinpoint when exactly the injury happened, though Boone mentioned they believe it happened at Fenway Park, when Gregorius went out to play a well-struck ball off the Green Monster. It might be the play, but I can’t be sure:

“On the throw, (Gregorius) felt it. He just got checked out by our doctor and unfortunately he needs Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm,” said Cashman. Gregorius initially complained of discomfort after that game and then played the rest of the series with the injury. Those two bounced throws in Game Four weren’t an accident, apparently.

Cashman confirmed Gregorius had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow when they initially acquired him from Arizona — he missed about three weeks with an elbow strain in 2013 — but he was asymptomatic until now. “(The injury) was the result of a sleeping giant, I guess,” the GM added.

The typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable for position players is 6-9 months, though Cashman cautioned they won’t have a clear picture until after surgery. The injury is to Didi’s right elbow, his throwing elbow, and Jay Jaffe found that middle infielders who had Tommy John surgery on their throwing elbow averaged a ten-month rehab. Gleyber Torres was back within eight months when he had his elbow reconstruction, but the injury was to his non-throwing elbow.

If there is a a silver lining for the Yankees here, it’s the timing. The Yankees have the entire offseason to address the shortstop position — or second base position should they slider Gleyber over — but they did just lose one of their best players and one of their few left-handed hitters of note. This injury is a very big blow. No doubt about it.

As for Gregorius, the timing is terrible. He is scheduled to become a free agent next offseason and now he won’t have a full, healthy contract season. It’s unclear whether the Yankees were planning to explore a long-term extension with Gregorius, but, if they were, they might hold off to see what he looks like post elbow surgery. A major bummer.

Cashman was of course asked about impending free agent Manny Machado and he of course ducked the question. First of all, he can’t talk about players under contract with another team. Secondly, it would do him no good to come out and say they’re going to go all out to sign Machado in the wake of the Gregorius injury. He’s got to play it cool.

“We’re scheduling the pro scouting meetings — we have those scheduled sooner than we wanted to — but we’ll go through our process and weigh all of the information,” said Cashman when asked about Machado and free agents in general. Clearly though, the Machado situation just got much more interesting (and for a bad reason).

For now, there’s not much the Yankees can do other than hope the surgery goes well and Gregorius has a swift recovery. The offseason won’t begin in earnest for another few weeks, and, at that point, they’ll get together and figure out how to weather the storm until Gregorius returns.

The Incomparable Didi Gregorius [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

In 2016, Didi Gregorius set career-best marks in runs, home runs, RBI, strikeout rate, and wRC+. In 2017, he once again set new high water marks in those metrics, to go along with a career-high 4.0 fWAR. And this time last year we were all wondering what he was capable of for an encore.

As a reminder, here is what the projection systems had to say:

  • Steamer: .269/.314/.436, 20 HR, 5.3% BB, 13.4% K, 566 PA
  • ZiPS: .267/.306/.430, 20 HR, 4.7% BB, 13.5% K, 593 PA
  • PECOTA: .262/.312/.411, 18 HR, 5.8% BB, 14.7% K, 636 PA

All three systems predicted a bit of regression for Gregorius, essentially predicting a return to his (still good) 2016 form. And, while that would have been disappointing, I’m sure that most of us would have accepted a solid defensive shortstop with a league-average bat. That’s not what happened, though.

The Ridiculously Hot Start

Gregorius reached base safely in his first five games, by the end of which he was slashing .444/.524/1.111 with two home runs and nine RBI. He also drew three walks in those five games, which might just be the most impressive aspect of that stretch. Well, that or his 8 RBI game against the Rays on April 3:

He didn’t quite maintain that torrid start, but he finished April hitting .321/.427/.735 (197 wRC+) with 10 HR and more walks (18) than strikeouts (16). And when the calendar flipped to May he was tied for the major league lead in fWAR with Mookie Betts. It was amazing and surreal to watch, and I loved every single second of it.

Unfortunately…

A Ridiculously Awful May

Gregorius was as bad in May as he was good in April; and that might be underselling his badness. His slash line was .149/.184/.213, which is good for a -1 wRC+. He stopped walking and hitting for power, and he looked helpless at the plate more often than not.  Gregorius’ batted ball profile shows a clear change in contact, too:

(FanGraphs)

His line-drive rate tumbled, his groundball spiked, and flyballs stopped leaving the yard. His HR/FB rate can be attributed to a simple yet aggressive bit of bad luck and/or regression to the mean – but the quality of contact was clearly not there. And at the end of May he was hitting .240/.315/.479, which isn’t all that far removed from his 2017 line of .287/.318/.478 (with way more power and walks).

The Return to Form

Gregorius closed out May with a little hot streak, reaching base in four straight games via five singles, a walk, and an HBP. And from June 1 through August 19 he raked once more, batting .292/.347/.485 with 11 HR, 7.3% walks, and 11.4% strikeouts (124 wRC+) in 289 PA. His batted ball profile basically split the difference between April and May, to the tune of 21.3% line drives, 40.9% grounders, 37.8% flyballs, and 12.6% HR/FB. That’s basically his career norms, with the exception of the still-elevated HR/FB rate, so it wasn’t difficult to say that this was probably who Gregorius is at this point.

Why the arbitrary cut-off of August 19, you ask? Well, with the news of his impending Tommy John surgery you may have forgotten that he missed nearly three weeks with a heel injury:

I still don’t know how he bruised his heel there, but I suppose that’s not terribly relevant. And, more importantly, he returned with a vengeance, batting .250/.344/.596 with 5 HR (149 wRC+) from September 7 through the end of the season. It’s worth noting that there was another injury scare mixed-in there, as torn cartilage in his wrist kept him out from for a handful of games in late-September, but he looked fine in what amounted to two tune-up games against the Red Sox to close the regular season.

All told, Gregorius hit .268/.335/.494 (121 wRC+) with 27 HR and 4.6 fWAR. If you’re keeping score at home, he once again set career-bests in runs, home runs, strikeout rate, wRC+, and fWAR, as well walks, OBP, and SLG. By FanGraphs’ reckoning he was the 8th best shortstop in the game, between Trea Turner and Jean Segura. That’s not too shabby.

The Doubly Dreadful Playoffs

Gregorius, like many Yankees, didn’t do so well in the postseason. He hit .234/.222/.294 in 19 PA, and didn’t draw a walk in five games. He was a big part of the failed comeback in the final game of the team’s season, though, hitting a single in the bottom of the 9th to give the team two on and none out. It was a disappointing ending to a brilliant season.

Of course, that wasn’t quite the end, was it? As I mentioned above, shortly after the Yankees bowed out of the playoffs we found out that Gregorius would undergo Tommy John surgery, which has an unclear recovery period. Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs found that infielders that had TJS on their throwing arms have taken anywhere from 6 to 15 months to return to the field; and one player, T.J. Rivera, hasn’t returned since having the procedure in September of last year. The mean is right around 10 months, which would put Gregorius on-track to return sometime in August. Which is … less than ideal.

What’s Next?

Of all of the players that we’re slated to review, Gregorius might be the most difficult to think about going forward.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old is a free agent after next season, and he currently lacks a timetable for return. The Yankees anticipate a return in 2019, and there are rumblings that they expect him to play the majority of the season. That seems aggressive, given what we know – but they know way more about the severity of the tear than we do, so it wouldn’t be out of the question that he could be on an expedited recovery plan. And if he could return before the midpoint of the season (say, sometime in June), it might be worth discussing short-term replacements – a return engagement with Neil Walker or signing a similarly versatile utility player (while moving Gleyber Torres to short), perhaps? – as opposed to acting as though the sky is falling.

If, however, the Yankees expect him back in August, it might be worth pursuing another full-time option in the infield. They have a ready-made replacement at short in Torres, which is great because it broadens their pool for replacements. But counting on a core player to return for 50 or so games and immediately return to form for a contending team feels irresponsible. And then there’s also the fact that he’s slated to earn over $12 MM through arbitration next year, which is a hefty figure for someone that might play less than a third of the season; a non-tender or contract extension buying out this year and a year or two of free agency might be in the cards in that case. These are not the issues that I was hoping to tackle in this review at all – but here we are.

On the none doom-and-gloom side of the equation, I do think it’s safe to say that the Gregorius of 2017 and 2018 is the real deal. So there’s that.

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

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(Elsa/Getty)

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

Last week Matt Swartz released his 2019 salary arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors. There are always exceptions, but Matt’s system is very accurate overall. These aren’t “in the ballpark” numbers. These tend to be close to dead on. Here is the Yanks’ arbitration class and their projected 2019 salaries:

  • Didi Gregorius: $12.4M (fourth time eligible as a Super Two)
  • Sonny Gray: $9.1M (third time)
  • Dellin Betances: $6.4M (third time)
  • Aaron Hicks: $6.2M (third time)
  • Luis Severino: $5.1M (first time as a Super Two)
  • Austin Romine: $2.0M (third time)
  • Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M (second time as a Super Two)
  • Greg Bird: $1.5M (first time)
  • Ronald Torreyes: $900K (first time as a Super Two)

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

  1. The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.
  2. Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

  1. Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.
  2. As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.
  3. Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

(Getty)

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

  • Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M
  • Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M
  • Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M
  • Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M
  • Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

Thoughts following Didi Gregorius’ Tommy John surgery

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

The 2018 season just ended and already the 2019 Yankees have suffered a major loss. Didi Gregorius needs Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t had the surgery yet, but he does need it, and he’ll have it soon. The rehab is expected to keep him out until sometime next summer. That is not a great way to start the offseason, folks. Here are some thoughts.

1. The typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable is 6-9 months for position players but that does vary by player and position. Catchers need more rehab time than outfielders, for example. Gleyber Torres had his Tommy John surgery in June and was more or less ready to go by January, though he had surgery on his non-throwing elbow, which is a different animal. Gregorius needs surgery on his throwing elbow. Jay Jaffe did some digging and found that middle infielders who had Tommy John surgery on their throwing elbow missed ten months, on average. That puts Gregorius on track to return next August. Tony Womack returned in six months. Rafael Furcal was out 15 months. Mets utility man T.J. Rivera had Tommy John surgery last September and missed the entire 2018 season with setbacks and whatnot. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes here. Point is, no one really know when Gregorius will be back. There is a chance — a pretty good chance, really — he will play next season. Possibly even as early as May or June. That seems to be the best case scenario. More than likely, the Yankees and Gregorius are looking at a return around the All-Star break, maybe even later than that. That’s a major bummer.

2. Given the nature of the injury and the uncertain rehab timetable, the Yankees have to proceed this winter as if they won’t have Gregorius at all next season. Plan on not having him and, if he returns at some point, great. But the Yankees have to plan around the worst case scenario. Betting on internal options like Tyler Wade or Ronald Torreyes until Gregorius returns would be a mistake, and I like Wade and Torreyes. Torreyes is a nice utility guy and Wade has more to offer than what he’s shown to date. But yeah, the Yankees have to do something here. They can’t bank on Gregorius returning early in the season and not missing a beat. Gleyber’s versatility allows the Yankees to look for a shortstop or a second baseman this winter, which gives them more options. My preference would be to find another shortstop and keep Torres at second, though that is much easier said than done. Quality shortstops are hard to find. The good news (“good” news) is the timing of the injury. Sir Didi’s elbow didn’t give out in Spring Training or during a late offseason workout. He’s having surgery in October, before the postseason even ends, so the Yankees have the entire offseason to go out and find a middle infield solution. This isn’t something that will pop up and surprise them in January or February or March.

3. So I guess this is where we talk about Manny Machado, huh? Machado is either the best or second best free agent on the market this winter — he and Bryce Harper are essentially 1 and 1A — and it is entirely possible the Yankees were planning to pursue him aggressively even before the Gregorius injury. (Remember, they did try to get him at the trade deadline.) Sign Machado, put him at third base, move Miguel Andujar elsewhere (first base? left field? trade for pitching?), then profit. Now the Yankees need a shortstop. Machado is a shortstop, or at least he considers himself a shortstop. He did not look good at the position while with the Orioles. It seemed like every time a ball was hit his way, he was on the ground. Machado has been better defensively with the Dodgers — Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) recently wrote the Orioles are miffed players perform better after leaving the team — to the point where keeping him at shortstop in the short-term seems viable. Earlier this year it looked like a return to third base was in everyone’s best interests. I don’t know what the years and total dollars will be, but I do know Machado is going to be a $35M+ per year player. That’s the market right now. He could very well wind up a $40M per year player. I think $35M annually is his floor though, and I don’t think the Yankees are going to make a $35M per year decision based on another player getting hurt. This is one of those things that happens more in video games than reality. “A player got hurt? Better go sign that free agent to a massive contract to replace him.” That sorta thing. If the Yankees were already planning to pursue Machado, then nothing’s really changed. If the Yankees weren’t planning to pursue Machado, or at least not go all out to sign him, I don’t think the Gregorius injury changes their plan much. Giving Machado a couple hundred million bucks was never going to hinge on Didi’s health. That was always going to be a money decision rather more than a roster needs decision.

4. One non-Machado name to keep in mind: Josh Harrison. The Yankees were connected to him a bunch last offseason (the last few offseasons, really) and the Pirates are expected to decline his $10.5M option, making him a free agent. In fact, the Pirates pulled Harrison mid-inning in their home finale a few weeks ago so the crowd could give him an ovation, so yeah, they’re declining the option. Harrison did not have a good 2018 season (.250/.293/.363 and 78 wRC+) but he is one year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line and is regarded as a good defender who can play pretty much anywhere. (Harrison went from 23 hit-by-pitches in 2017 to five in 2018, dragging down his OBP. Last winter I mentioned his reliance on hit-by-pitches to prop up his OBP worried me.) I don’t think Harrison would be Plan A or even Plan B. He seems like someone the Yankees could pick up with an eye on filling in at second base (with Torres at short) until Gregorius returns before sliding into a true utility role the rest of the season. I don’t love it and I would prefer to see the Yankees aim higher when searching for a Gregorius replacement. Harrison just seems like someone to watch this offseason. The Yankees reportedly liked him enough to pursue him in trades the last few years, but not enough to give in to Pittsburgh’s demands. Now that he’s available for nothing but cash, they could pounce.

5. Something I could see happening quickly: Adeiny Hechavarria re-signing with the Yankees on a minor league contract. Hechavarria is a great defensive player but he can’t hit (.246/.283/.347 and 68 wRC+ the last three years) and similar all-glove/no-bat middle infielders like Darwin Barney, Danny Espinosa, Ryan Goins, Cliff Pennington, and Ruben Tejada inked minor league contracts last offseason. It’s possible some team will step forward with a guaranteed Major League contract — the Royals gave Alcides Escobar a one-year deal worth $2.5M last winter for some reason — and one team is all it takes, so maybe Hechavarria and his camp will wait things out in the offseason. I could see the Yankees pushing to get this done soon. A minor league deal with a base salary around $2M at the MLB level (plus incentives for games played?) with an opt-out at the end of Spring Training seems possible here. Before the Gregorius injury, I didn’t think there was much of a chance the Yankees would retain Hechavarria. He was a useful late season pickup who didn’t seem to have a spot on the normal 25-man roster from April through August. The Didi injury changes the equation though. Hechavarria is no great shakes by any means, but, if the Yankees can bring him back on a no risk minor league contract, they’ll at least be able to move forward knowing they have a defensive whiz at shortstop in their back pocket should they strike out on the free agent/trade market.

Return of the Hech? (Getty)

6. Some rapid fire thoughts on other potential middle infield targets: Daniel Murphy can hit righties but can’t really play second base anymore, and I don’t think the Yankees want another disaster defensive infielder after living through the Andujar experience this year. Brian Dozier is a very good defender whose offensive game has really slipped the last year or two. The name value is greater than the on-field value at this point. Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Logan Forsythe are boring yet perfectly cromulent second base possibilities. I hope the Yankees aim higher. I suspect Eduardo Escobar and Marwin Gonzalez will get larger than expected multi-year contracts as super utility guys and I’m not sure the Yankees want to spend big on a Gregorius replacement not named Machado. DJ LeMahieu is a sleeper option. He’s great defensively at second base and he’s a high contact hitter. It is fair to question how much he’ll hit outside Coors Field though. The last three seasons LeMahieu has hit .345/.411/.479 (110 wRC+) at home and .277/.330/.405 (96 wRC+) on the road. Eh. Would the Brewers trade Jonathan Schoop so soon after acquiring him at the deadline? They gave up some pretty good prospects to get him. (Sonny Gray for Schoop?) The Orioles are presumably open for business and Jonathan Villar could be a target. He played well for them last season and is a major stolen base threat. The Yankees have been connected to Derek Dietrich a bunch over the years and he could be an option, though he hasn’t played much second base the last few seasons. The Phillies are said to be planning “significant changes” this winter and I’d be very open to a Cesar Hernandez trade. Hard pass on Addison Russell, who seems destined to be traded this winter.

7. I don’t think it’ll happen but I don’t think non-tendering Gregorius is as outlandish as it may seem on the surface. Matt Swartz and MLBTR posted their annual salary arbitration projections last week and their (very) accurate system pegs Gregorius for a $12.4M salary in 2019. If, once surgery is complete, the prognosis has Gregorius returning sometime in August or September, the Yankees could non-tender him and use that money elsewhere. It would be somewhat similar to the Nathan Eovaldi decision two years ago. Eovaldi blew out his elbow with one year of control remaining, and rather than pay him a pretty good salary to rehab in 2017 only to have him become a free agent after the season didn’t really make sense. It was money for nothing. Gregorius is expected back next season, possibly not until late in the season though, and the Yankees may decide getting less than two months of Sir Didi is not worth that projected $12.4M salary, especially since he’ll be a free agent after the season. Plus he’s probably going to need some time to get back up to speed once he returns. He may play 50 games next year, but the Yankees might only get 30 games of fully healthy and productive Gregorius after the injury. Know what I mean? Like I said, I don’t think a non-tender will happen. Gregorius is expected back at some point next year and he is a 28-year-old middle infielder who has established himself as a +4 WAR player. Those dudes are hard to find and you don’t just give them away. I just think the chances of a non-tender went from 0% to something like 5% after the injury. Probably not going to happen, but never say never after a major injury and surgery like this.

8. The Yankees have not been particularly aggressive locking up their young players to long-term extensions — they haven’t signed a player to a multi-year extension during his arbitration years since giving Brett Gardner his about to expire four-year deal in February 2014 — but, if they were ever going to do it again, doing it with Gregorius this winter would’ve made sense. He’s a comfortably above-average two-way player at an up-the-middle position who is right smack in the prime of his career and is an important figure in the clubhouse. Didi is exactly the kind of guy you lock up and build around, right? Right. The injury changes things though. If the Yankees were planning to explore a long-term extension with Gregorius this offseason, it might be off the table to completely now, only because we have no idea what he’ll look like post-surgery. Chances are he’ll be fine. Tommy John surgery has a fairly high success rate, even moreso with position players. But what if he’s not fine? What if he has complications and misses more time than expected, or his throwing arm is diminished to the point where he can’t remain at shortstop? No one wants that to happen but sometimes it does. Gregorius is one year away from free agency and, historically, players who sign multi-year extensions at this service time level get free agent dollars. There is no discount. Perhaps Gregorius would be open to signing a discounted multi-year deal now — a major injury like this can be scary and could push him to take the guaranteed money now rather than bet on himself post-surgery — though he has made some good money already (his career earnings are north of $17M) and he might not be desperate for that big payday. I love Didi and hope he’ll be a Yankee forever and ever. That said, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees for holding off on a long-term contract until seeing what he looks like after elbow reconstruction. This isn’t like getting a tooth pulled. It could change his career outlook going forward.

9. As for Gregorius personally, wow does the injury suck. The injury and the timing. He’s gotten better offensively literally every season with the Yankees …

  • 2015: 9 HR and 89 wRC+
  • 2016: 20 HR and 97 wRC+
  • 2017: 25 HR and 107 wRC+
  • 2018: 27 HR and 121 wRC+

… and he’s a standout defensive shortstop who has had some huge postseason moments. He replaced Derek Jeter better than I think anyone expected and he’s been a controversy-free fan favorite with the Yankees. Unless he signed a long-term extension this offseason, Gregorius was poised for a massive 2019 contract season that sent him into free agency in position to cash in big. Now he won’t have a fully healthy contract year and, fairly or unfairly, there will be questions about his elbow next winter. Even if he comes back strong next year and rakes. How will the elbow hold up long-term? How much longer does he have at shortstop? Those sorta things. You know teams will use the injury against Gregorius during contract talks. Sucks. Sir Didi has been a great Yankee these last few years and I was happy he would finally be able to cash in on his success. The Tommy John surgery throws a big wrench into that. Poor guy.

End of the Year Thoughts

by

(Newsday)

By the end of today, we’ll have made it five days without Yankee baseball happening or to even look forward to. It’s a long way till February and with the LCS’s going on and the World Series on the horizon, it feels even longer. To keep you warm–or cold, depending on how much you’ve recovered from the abrupt end to the season–here are some thoughts.

A Fitting End

The end of the Yankees’ season felt a little bit like the season itself. All year, this was a very good team; it won 100 games, despite what browsing Twitter might make you think. But given the great success and the home run record, the Red Sox had and moments of frustration, it seemed like this team was just one step shy of great. Game three’s disaster aside, the Yankees were close (or winning re: game two) in their losses, and had chances to win, to be great. At times this year, the team was great and probably will be going forward. While this year ended with disappointment, it wasn’t a failure by any means. Next year, however, the expectations should be ramped up a bit more. An ALDS loss in 2019 would be way more disappointing than it was this year.

Sonny Gone Gray

Before this year started, I thought Sonny Gray was going to have a big year. He had some good peripherals in his time as a Yankee in 2017 and he had–still has–great talent. But this year, it just never happened. Any time it looked like he was going to get on a roll, he fell flat on his face again. Despite how hard I rooted for him, I don’t think I’ve ever been more wrong about a player than I was about Sonny Gray in 2018.

During the year-end press conference, GM Brian Cashman didn’t do much to obscure the fact that the Yankees are going to look for trades involving Gray, which is too bad. Sonny seems like a really good guy and took his lumps this year without much noise.

Looking back, it seems that the trade to bring Gray to New York isn’t really working out for anyone, unless Dustin Fowler really turns it on in 2019. Even then, this was a smart trade to make and I’m glad the Yankees did. The process was good even if the results haven’t been. I want to say haven’t been ‘yet,’ still hopeful for some value from Gray, but it doesn’t look like that’s ever gonna happen. A trade is likely the right thing to do here, even if the Yankees don’t get an exact match on value.

Fantasy Roster

With the news of Didi Gregorius’ impending Tommy John Surgery, we all got a little sad. Then, our minds began to wander towards Manny Machado for obvious reasons. The fact that the Yankees are back in a position to spend big also helped that fantasizing, which led to more and more fantasies, like Bryce Harper. I’m on record as saying I’m skeptical that the Yankees will spend big again, but after narrowly missing the World Series in 2017 and getting eliminated early this year, hopefully they pull a 2008-2009 and push themselves over the edge. I let my mind run a little wild with the possibilities and came up with this roster-bated squad that would start the year in Didi’s absence:

C: Gary Sanchez

1B: Miguel Andujar

2B: Jed Lowrie

3B: Manny Machado

SS: Gleyber Torres

LF: Bryce Harper

CF: Aaron Hicks

RF: Aaron Judge

DH: Giancarlo Stanton

BN: Austin Romine, Clint Frazier, Ronald Torreyes, Luke Voit or Greg Bird

SP: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Patrick Corbin, JA Happ, CC Sabathia

RP: Dellin Betances, Chad Green, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Tarpley

CP: Aroldis Chapman

To quote Doctors Jan Itor and Chris Turk, not gonna happen. The chances that the Yankees sign seven free agents (counting CC + Happ + Robertson) is pretty slim, even if they do have bucks to throw around. Additionally, there would definitely be a roster crunch when Didi returned, and I doubt Jed Lowrie would settle for what would be a supersub role come the second half, unless he were paid exorbitantly. Were this to happen, though, you’d put Gleyber back at second, Didi at short, and Lowrie would take Toe’s spot on the bench.

Again, something this drastic won’t happen, but it’d be a lot cooler if it did.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

by

(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

by

(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.