DJ LeMahieu Archives - Page 2 of 4

The New Super Utility Infielder [2019 Season Preview]

March 14, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees signed a free agent infielder to a multi-year contract this past offseason. It was not the free agent infielder most expected or hoped, however. Rather than spend big on Manny Machado, the Yankees instead scooped up longtime Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu. He received a two-year contract worth $24M total.

“He’s always shown the ability to play all four infield positions,” said special assistant Jim Hendry, who drafted LeMahieu when he was with the Cubs, to Dan Martin a few weeks ago. “And we have a lot of guys that can hit the ball out of the ballpark, but that comes with strikeouts. He’s gonna make contact and be a winning player for us.”

LeMahieu turns 31 in July and he’s coming off a .276/.321/.428 (86 wRC+) batting line last season with his third Gold Glove in the last five years. The Gold Gloves are deserved too. His +18 DRS was second to Kolten Wong (+19 DRS) at second base last year, and, over the last five years, his +48 DRS is second only to Ian Kinsler (+67 DRS).

The Yankees are not getting 2018 LeMahieu or 2014-18 LeMahieu, however. They’re getting 2019 LeMahieu and, barring a trade or release, 2020 LeMahieu as well. Taking a relatively light hitting infielder out of Coors Field is a risky move, but the Yankees are all-in. Let’s preview LeMahieu’s season.

How much offense should we expect?

We know five things about LeMahieu as a hitter. One, he’s a ground ball guy (career 53.8%). Two, he’s more likely to go the other way to right field than pull the ball to left (35.0% to 25.0%). Three, he’s been more effective at Coors Field than everywhere else (96 wRC+ vs. 84 wRC+). Four, his contact rate on pitches in the zone is elite (92.6%). And five, he’s a sneaky good exit velocity guy.

Like every other Rockies hitter, LeMahieu has benefited from playing in Coors Field. He’s just benefited in a different way than, say, Nolan Arenado or Brad Hawpe or Vinny Castilla. LeMahieu’s not a home run guy. He sprays the ball around and took advantage of that huge Coors Field outfield, the second most spacious in baseball. There’s a reason LeMahieu has a career .374 BABIP at Coors Field and a career .310 BABIP everywhere else.

The issue with Coors Field is not necessarily Coors Field itself. It’s what happens when hitters leave Coors Field and go out on the road. There’s evidence of a Coors Field hangover effect, meaning Rockies players are unfairly dinged when they leave altitude. Remember when Adam Ottavino said he’s looking forward to leaving Coors Field and gaining consistent break on his pitches? That works the other way too. LeMahieu will see consistent break now.

Although he’s a right-handed hitter with a tendency to hit the ball to right field, LeMahieu’s not a great candidate to take advantage of the short porch because he hits so many balls on the ground. His walk rate has more or less been average over the years despite a very low chase rate (26.1% since 2015) because he puts the ball in play easily. It’s good LeMahieu knows a ball from a strike. It’s just that well-above-average chase rate only equals an average number of walks.

Only some power and only some walks means LeMahieu’s offensive value is tied tightly to his batting average, which is risky. Risky probably isn’t the right word. Susceptible to big year-to-year swings is more like it. Three years ago LeMahieu hit .348. Last year he hit .276. Sure, his true talent level changed some across three years because he aged, but 72 points of batting average? Walks and power help stabilize things and LeMahieu doesn’t really offer them.

As for his contact rate, that’s nice, though the idea he solves any strikeout concerns is a real stretch. For starters, the Yankees don’t strike out as much as everyone seems to think. Their team 22.7% strikeout rate was almost exactly league average (22.3%) last year. (The difference was roughly 25 strikeouts across the 162-game season.) Having one or two strikeout prone hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t make the entire team strikeout prone. Whatever. This narrative isn’t going away.

Anyway, LeMahieu makes a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out much, but even if you believe strikeouts are this team’s fatal flaw, LeMahieu is only one player, and no one player can fix any team’s flaw. Also, if LeMahieu is suddenly a true talent .270-ish hitter with not much power, how much is that extra contact really helping? Point is, LeMahieu not striking out much is welcome, but the idea that he’s exactly what the Yankees need because they strikeout a lot is … woof. No.

My hope is LeMahieu can be a league average hitter now that he’s free from the Coors Field hangover. League average for a hitter with this profile in Yankee Stadium means something like .280/.330/.400. Nothing exciting about it, and it would assuredly make LeMahieu no better than the seventh or eighth best hitter on the team, but that’s okay. They can’t all be middle of the order thumpers. League average is a modest and reasonable goal.

A super utility infielder

“I was told to bring a lot of gloves,” LeMahieu quipped during his introductory conference call. The Yankees intend to use LeMahieu has a super utility infielder, meaning someone who plays regularly but at different positions. Second base one day, third base the next, first base the day after that, so on and so forth. It’s a great idea, especially with Troy Tulowitzki needing regular rest, though it’s not as easy as it sounds. We’ve seen other players struggle with it.

LeMahieu is a career second baseman, so it’s no surprise he’s spent more time at third base (25 innings) than second (22 innings) this spring. He knows second base. Third base is the one he has to learn. And, coincidentally enough, LeMahieu is playing first base for the first time in today’s Grapefruit League game. He played a little first and third in the past. The Yankees want to make it a weekly thing and LeMahieu’s on board. He knew what he was getting into.

“This is really how I came up to the Majors,” LeMahieu said to Kristie Ackert earlier this week. “I played different positions, and then second base opened up so I kind of stuck there. When this opportunity to come to the Yankees opened up for me, it was what I wanted … Because it’s the Yankees.”

Granted, we haven’t seen him much at third base this spring, but LeMahieu has looked fine there in his limited looks. He has the hands and arm for it. I’m not worried about him catching and throwing the ball. The adjustment will come on those quick reactions — there’s a reason it’s called the hot corner! — and plays when the ball isn’t hit to him. Where does he go on cutoff plays, things like that. That’s usually where the lack of experience shows up.

I expect LeMahieu to be perfectly fine at first and third bases. His inexperience will show up at times and that’s to be expected. Otherwise I think he’ll handle both positions well. The question is how much will he play? Aaron Boone says the Yankees plan to play LeMahieu pretty much every day, but these super utility things are always better as an idea than in reality. My guess is this will be more of a play it by ear situation initially.

“(LeMahieu) allows us to really have a ten, eleven-man rotation for nine spots,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty last month. “It keeps everyone, we believe, playing regularly, but also able to keep guys fresh, hopefully more healthy over the long haul and a guy or two on the bench every night that’s a really good player.”

* * *

The LeMahieu signing is the kinda move hardcore statheads call savvy because he has untapped potential (woo exit velocity!) but leaves most others shrugging their shoulders. Especially when the Yankees passed on Machado to sign LeMahieu. Of course it’s not that simple — they’re not in the same stratosphere contract-wise — but that’s how many fans will see it, that the Yankees passed on Machado to sign LeMahieu.

For all intents and purposes, the Yankees signed LeMahieu to be Tulowitzki insurance, and to be a better version of Neil Walker. LeMahieu’s a much better defender than Walker — or at least he is at second base (first and third bases remain to be seen) — and he theoretically offers more offensive upside because he makes more contact and has shown better exit velocity. I feel like there are only two possible outcomes here: LeMahieu is unexpectedly great and looks like a steal, or he’s terrible and everyone hates him. No middle ground.

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

March 14, 2019 by Mike

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
(MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

[Read more…]

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

March 7, 2019 by Derek Albin

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

DJ LeMahieu may not have a set position, but the Yankees plan to play him nearly every day

February 28, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week bad weather denied us a chance to see DJ LeMahieu play a position other than second base for the first time since 2014. He was slated to play third base in Tuesday’s rained out game. The Yankees signed LeMahieu, a career second baseman, with the intention of turning him into a super utility infielder. “I was told to bring a lot of gloves,” he joked during his introductory conference call.

The 30-year-old LeMahieu is a three-time Gold Glover who leads all second basemen with +29 DRS the last three seasons. Signing him and putting him at second full-time with Gleyber Torres sliding over to shortstop would’ve been the easiest and most straightforward move, but the Yankees will instead move LeMahieu around. They believe his defensive tools will translate elsewhere on the diamond and LeMahieu’s onboard with the plan.

“I see they’ve got a lot of talented infielders there and we’ll kind of see how it unfolds. I’ll be ready to go wherever I’m needed,” LeMahieu said to Dan Martin last month. “I’d be comfortable (at short). I played quite a bit of third in the minors, actually, primarily third in the minors and also some short. It’s something I’d have to work on, but I definitely think I could handle it here and there.”

My guess is LeMahieu will be fine at third. His quickness, hands, and arm are all very good and should translate well to the hot corner. I’m sure he’ll have no trouble catching throws from other infielders at first base too. The lack of experience usually shows up on cutoff plays (“where do I stand?!”) or in-between plays (“do I try to get this grounder or let the second baseman take it?!”). There’s nothing LeMahieu and the Yankees can do about that other than keep working at it. The basic fundamentals, like catching and throwing the ball, should be a non-issue. It’s the other stuff that’s tricky.

Although LeMahieu is going to move around, the Yankees do not see him as a bench player. He’s going to play and play a lot. Aaron Boone recently told Joel Sherman he expects LeMahieu to “start 145 games,” which is a full-time workload. That means the plan is for LeMahieu to be in the starting lineup pretty much every single day, albeit at a different position while Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Andujar, and Luke Voit (or Greg Bird, I suppose) rotate in at DH or get a day on the bench.

“Start with a place where we are totally healthy and things are going according to plan. You still envision Tulo off a couple of days a week, which means Gleyber moves over on those days,” Boone said to George King. “There is a day a week or every ten days Gleyber gets a day off. A day off or two for Andujar and the day (he DHs). It’s really not that hard to envision (LeMahieu) playing five out of six even with everyone healthy and doing what they are supposed to be doing.”

The Yankees are seemingly dead set on Tulowitzki being their starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius rehabs from Tommy John surgery, though Boone cautioned Tulowitzki will sit regularly early in the season. They don’t want to overload him after all those injuries and missing last season. That will open up playing time for LeMahieu. As will Andujar sitting when CC Sabathia starts. Look at Sabathia’s spray heat map the last three years:

Sabathia faced more than four times as many righties as lefties the last three seasons, and because he pitches those righties inside with the cutter, he gets a ton of weakly hit ground balls to the left side of the infield. He needs a good defensive third baseman and Andujar is not that. Neil Walker was Sabathia’s personal third baseman in the second half last year and it’s safe to assume LeMahieu will be his personal third baseman this year.

Two off-days for Tulowitzki plus one day as Sabathia’s personal third baseman already equals three starts per week for LeMahieu. Figure either Torres or Voit is going to sit once a week, so that’s a fourth start. And let’s not forget about left field either. Brett Gardner should not start against southpaws. Gardner on the bench, Giancarlo Stanton in left field, Andujar at DH, and LeMahieu at third should be the standard alignment against lefties.

For the sake of laying it all out, here are possible defensive alignments each time through the rotation:

	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Day 4	Day 5 (CC)
1B	Voit	Voit	LeMahieu	Voit	Voit
2B	Torres	LeMahieu	Torres	LeMahieu	Torres
SS	Tulowitzki	Torres	Tulowitzki	Torres	Tulowitzki
3B	Andujar	Andujar	Andujar	Andujar	LeMahieu
LF	Gardner	Gardner	Stanton	Gardner	Stanton
DH	Stanton	Stanton	Voit	Stanton	Andujar
Bench	LeMahieu	Tulowitzki	Gardner	Tulowitzki	Gardner

Of course, it never works out quite that neatly, but I think you catch my drift. Tulowitzki and Gardner, the two guys in their mid-30s who shouldn’t play every single day, get two off-days each time through the rotation. LeMahieu sits the other day, and Day 3 in the scenario above is essentially a flex day. It could be Voit at DH, or Torres, or Andujar, or even Tulowitzki or LeMahieu.

Again, it never ever works out quite that neatly because someone is red hot and you want to keep him in the lineup, or someone is nursing an injury, or the Yankees see four lefty starters in a row, things like that. Generally speaking, a plan where LeMahieu plays four out of every five games while Tulowitzki and Gardner each play three times seems plausible. That’s a good framework and the Yankees will adjust as necessary.

LeMahieu will go from playing second base every day to playing second base twice every five days, plus first base and third base once each. It’ll take an adjustment, for sure. It’s up to Boone and the Yankees to keep LeMahieu (and everyone else) updated on the plan — there are few things players hate more than coming to the park and not knowing if or where they’re playing — and LeMahieu to stay ready. He’s a pro. He’ll be ready.

The Yankees tried to turn Neil Walker, a career second baseman, into a utility guy who moved around last season, and it didn’t work out all that well. He struggled with the reduced playing time. Boone and the Yankees say they will move LeMahieu around like they did Walker, except they’re going to play him more often, which will hopefully keep his bat sharp. They didn’t sign him to be a part-timer. He’ll be in the lineup close to every day.

“The days are there (to play LeMahieu) even if we have perfect health,” Boone said to Randy Miller. “And if we do, it allows us to keep guys healthier over the long haul because they are getting that one day a week where they’re down. It never quite works out that way.”

The Puzzling Middle Infield Picture

February 24, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

Even without signing Manny Machado and even with Didi Gregorius sidelined, recovering from Tommy John Surgery, the Yankees middle infield is already pretty crowded. There’s returning youngster Gleyber Torres, as well as free agent additions Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu. We should also throw an honorable mention towards Tyler Wade, since he’s nominally a middle infielder. With this many guys for two of the four up-the-middle positions on a baseball team, there are many options for deployment. The one the Yankees are opting for is puzzling. Per this tweet by Lindsey Adler, the Yankees are having Tulo work exclusively as a shortstop this spring. Plans can change, of course, but this one isn’t great for reasons both offensive and defensive.

Offensively, the problem starts with Tulowitzki himself. The next time he takes the plate in an official Major League game, it’ll be the first time he’s done so since 2017, when he was an 79 wRC+ hitter in 260 plate appearances across 66 games. He was last a league average hitter in 2016 when he posted a 104 wRC+ in 544 PA in 131 games; he was also league average in 2015 at a 101 wRC+. However he does in Spring Training, there’s going to be a steep relearning curve for him when the real action starts on March 28. While slow starts happen, they’re different for a guy who just missed a year due to injury and hasn’t been decent since 2016.

LeMahieu also offers a potential problem offensively. I may be a touch alarmist here since I’m not exactly sold on this acquisition, but it’s worth noting that despite playing the plurality of his career’s home games in Coors Field, DJLM has only one above average offensive season. Add that to switching leagues and teams and it’s not hard to imagine a rough going at the start. The Yankees signed him because they think his batted ball profile will play in Yankee Stadium, and that’s great, but is that really what you wanna pin your hopes and $24M guaranteed on?

This leaves Gleyber Torres, ironically, as potentially the most offensively reliable of this middle infield troika as he’s not coming off an injury and isn’t switching leagues or teams. Still, he’s a second year player who could easily have a sophomore slump and it’s a lot to expect of a guy–even if these are my expectations–to be the best out of these three players.

On the other side of the ball, the Yankees are going to have a guy who’s recovering from heel surgery play shortstop, the most demanding infield position that side of the mound. That’s not a good look in and of itself, let alone with Miguel Andujar playing next to him, who has plenty of defensive issues to work out. Additionally, LeMahieu’s definite value comes from his great glove at second base…where Gleyber Torres will be getting most of the action. Not only are the Yankees putting a potentially compromised player at shortstop, they’re also going to be putting a Gold Glove caliber second baseman at….not second base most of the time. The smarter play is probably to have Tulowitzki as the backup with Torres at short and LeMahieu at second. But, really, counting on Tulowitzki for anything is probably a fool’s errand.

Bringing in LeMahieu afterwards brings the entire Tulowitzki signing into question, even as a low-risk move because of how muddled it makes things. Surely, though, the Yankees have thought of this if I have and have a plan. I still have my doubts. If (when?) Tulo gets hurt and it becomes wholly necessary to move Torres to short, thus allowing LeMahieu to play second full time, this all looks a bit better, since elite defense at second is nothing to scoff at, even if the player leaves a lot to be desired offensively.

With this puzzling middle infield picture, the Yankees have made their bed. Hopefully, it’s more comfortable than I’ve made it out to be.

Beyond Bird and Voit: A primer on the Yankees’ backup first base options

February 21, 2019 by Steven Tydings

For the last three seasons, the Yankees have had one of the worst first base situations in baseball.

Greg Bird’s injury history has a lot to do with it. The team is 27th in first base WAR since the start of 2016 with Bird missing all of 2016 and parts of the last two seasons.

While the team still didn’t get elite production at first last season, they were middle of the pack thanks to the unexpected mashing of Luke Voit. The Yankees were 16th in 1B WAR last year and Voit produced 1.9 of it in just 39 games.

However, Voit is far from a sure thing. He had a remarkable 148 plate appearances last year and some projections are bullish on his production, as Bobby noted recently, but is he really a middle-of-the-order masher? There’s a strong chance he’s just a flash in the pan.

And if Voit is a flash in the pan and Bird can’t get back on track, what do the Yankees do? What’s the backup plan? Certainly, they’ll each get every opportunity to win the job, particularly Bird as the lefty-power hitter the lineup needs. But what’s the backup plan?

That’s worth trying to suss out.

1. D.J. LeMahieu

When the Yankees signed LeMahieu in January, it was with the idea that he would be a multi-positional player who could fill in all around the infield. In theory, that’s great. He’s played all the positions before … in 2014.

Since 2014, LeMahieu has been a Gold Glove second baseman and nothing but. He hasn’t played another position and it’s a tremendous question mark whether he can maintain his value as a steady glove when moved to the corner infield. Would his range be a real asset at first? There’s even the question whether his unfamiliarity at first could make him a negative there.

The fielding questions come long before you dive into his hitting. Outside of his batting title in 2016, he’s been a mediocre hitter and worse outside Coors Field. That sounds like more of the same from what the Yankees have gotten at first base.

Then there’s the doomsday scenario: What if Troy Tulowitzki can’t stay healthy or produce while both Voit and Bird fail in short order? LeMahieu would need to shift over to second base to help cover Tulo, forcing the Yankees into keeping a below-average first base situation. Unless you move someone else across the diamond…

Looking for something? (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

2. Miguel Andujar

In that doomsday scenario, Andujar would still need to play third base. But let’s say the team can shift things around and Andujar becomes the backup at first base. Can he even play the position?

Andujar’s foibles at third base are well documented. He struggled on reads, was slow in making throws and didn’t have the proper footwork, leading to errors or balls skirting through the infield. Moving him down the defensive spectrum to first base eliminate some of his throws but places him back into an unfamiliar spot with balls coming at him just as quick. In terms of scooping balls at first, he can’t be too familiar, though that’s hardly a deal breaker after watching Voit butcher a few throws.

Andujar can at least hit the part at first base, but it doesn’t sound like the team is too keen on trying him opposite the hot corner. In his introductory spring press conference, Aaron Boone shied away from committing to Andujar playing any first this spring, so thrusting him into action in the regular season becomes almost out of the question.

So who’s after Andujar?

3. Other in-house options

Seriously, who?

On the active roster, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have first base experience in the majors. Sanchez only played three innings there in 2017 and didn’t look all that comfortable. Romine rated well by UZR in 80 innings across 2016 and ’17, but he doesn’t hit at a level of an everyday player.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are likely destined for first base and DH duties late in their career but not in the short term. Both play a capable corner outfield at this stage and neither has first base experience.

In the upper minors, there’s no intriguing prospect. Mike Ford and Ryan McBroom have each hit well in Trenton and Scranton over the last couple years, though each is past prospect status in their late 20s. Could either go on a Voit or Shelley Duncan-style streak in the Majors? Sure! But sustained success is questionable, even if Ford could give you some two-way dreams.

If all else fails, what about outside the organization?

4. Trade or free agency

There was one big fish — Paul Goldschmidt — on the trade market this offseason and he’s been reeled in by St. Louis. The rest are slim pickings.

Free agency doesn’t do much better. Brad Miller is three years removed from a 30-homer season and hasn’t been all that productive since in addition to some fielding woes. Logan Forsythe played a little first for the Dodgers the last two years, but he hasn’t hit enough to justify a signing. Beyond them, want a flyer on Logan Morrison? Hanley Ramirez? Meh.

By July, there might be a few more first base options popping up. A Wilmer Flores or Justin Bour might be available, as could a reunion with new Marlin Neil Walker. The only name that stands out would be Giants first baseman Brandon Belt.

At 30, Belt is no longer a spring chicken and has struggled around injuries since his 2016 All-Star appearance, albeit while still posting above-average numbers. His plate discipline and glove play in any park and his lefty bat might play especially well at Yankee Stadium. He’s signed for three more seasons at $17.2 million per year, so he wouldn’t come cheap.

Conclusion

If the Yankees are going to finally get better-than-average production from first base, it’s going to be Voit or Bird. The team’s other options are few and murky at that, so riding it out with that combo is the hand the Bombers are forced to play.

It might turn out great! Bird is finally coming off a healthy offseason and Voit could be for real, at least to an extent.

But even if the Yankees need to carry a less-than-stellar first baseman, they can survive just like they have the last few years. Bird and Voit were key down the stretch the last two years and a power-hitting first baseman certainly helps, but it’s hardly a requirement for winning a championship. Still, it’d be nice if it works out.

Five takeaways from the 2019 Yankees ZiPS projections

February 20, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is underway and that means two things. One, baseball is back! Hooray for that. And two, prospect ranking season and projection season have arrived. We’ve already seen a ton of prospect rankings. Earlier this week, Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS projections for the 2019 Yankees. The fancy graphic above shows the team’s WAR projection by position. Spoiler. The Yankees project to be very good. I don’t think we needed ZiPS to tell us that.

Obligatory reminder: Projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate the player’s current talent level. There are more projection systems out there than I care to count and they all go about it in different ways. Is one better than the other? Eh, not really. ZiPS is my preferred projection system so that’s what I’m going to write about. Here are five things that stand out to me about the 2019 Yankees ZiPS projections.

1. LeMahieu should play over Tulowitzki. Not sure you need a projection system to see this. Tulowitzki hasn’t played since July 2017 and, the last time he did play, he wasn’t very good. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) in 66 games before getting hurt. Also, Tulowitzki is 34 now. Even if he were perfectly healthy, he’s at the point where you’d expect age-related decline. Aren’t teams avoiding free agents this age? Not when they’re essentially free, I guess.

ZiPS pegs Tulowitzki as a below-average offense (77 OPS+) and league-average defense (+0 runs) player who projects out to +0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances. It has LeMahieu as a below-average hitter as well (93 OPS+), but not that far below average, and it likes his defense too (+5 runs). The total package projects out to +2.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances. That is not an insignificant difference. Not in what could be a tight AL East race.

I totally understand why the Yankees are rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. I don’t understand why they’re seemingly so dedicated to him as their starting shortstop. “We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there,” said Aaron Boone last week. In a perfect world the Yankees would give Tulowitzki a look in camp and a few weeks in the regular season. If he performs well, great, keep him. If not, I hope they don’t hesitate to move on. Not with LeMahieu ready to step in.

2. First base should be okay. Not great, but okay. PECOTA loves Luke Voit. That system has him as the 22nd best hitter in baseball in 2019. ZiPS is not that optimistic, though it sees a .264/.344/.474 (116 OPS+) batting line with 22 homers and +1.9 WAR in just under 500 plate appearances. That slash line looks like peak Joey Votto compared to what the Yankees have gotten at first base since Mark Teixeira’s last great year in 2015:

2016: .212/.293/.380 (71 OPS+)
2017: .244/.317/.444 (83 OPS+)
2018: .234/.309/.453 (96 OPS+)

ZiPS has never been all that high on Greg Bird — it projected him for +1.9 WAR total from 2017-18 — and this year it projects him for a .224/.317/.444 (101 OPS+) line and +0.6 WAR in 350 plate appearance. Probably not good enough to start at first base for a contending team, in other words. First basemen collectively hit .253/.333/.438 (112 OPS+) last season, their worst season since 1953 and fifth worst season on record. They (relatively) stink right now. Voit’s projection is middle of the pack relative to the rest of the league. For the Yankees, middle of the pack at first base would be a massive upgrade over the last three years.

3. A historic bullpen projection. The +7.9 WAR projection you see in the graphic atop the post is the highest bullpen projection ZiPS has ever spit out*. The previous record? The 2018 Yankees at +7.7 WAR. ZiPS projected the bullpen for +7.7 WAR last year and they finished the season at +9.7 WAR, making it the best bullpen in baseball history (per fWAR). (The Yankees also set a record with a 30.2% bullpen strikeout rate last year.)

* For what it’s worth, Szymborski says the bullpen projection would’ve been +8.3 WAR had the Yankees kept David Robertson rather than sign Adam Ottavino. Zack Britton (+0.8 WAR projected) over Robertson is the one that irks me though, not Ottavino (+0.9 WAR projected) over Robertson.

Bullpens are notoriously volatile but that doesn’t reduce the value of having high-end talent. Ottavino is more likely to be an above-average setup man this season than, say, Joe Harvey. Britton is a better bet to be a high ground ball lefty than Stephen Tarpley. When you’re the Yankees and you can throw money at the best available players, you should do it, and they did it with the bullpen. No, the bullpen is not guaranteed to meet (or beat) projections. ZiPS tells us they have an awful lot of relief talent though, and I’d rather bet on expensive talent than cobbling together seven or eight cheap arms and hoping for the best.

4. Does Green’s projection match reality? The best individual player projection in that stacked bullpen belongs not to five-time All-Star Aroldis Chapman or high-priced free agent Zack Britton. It belongs to Chad Green. ZiPS pegs Green as a true talent 2.70 ERA (2.77 FIP) pitcher with great strikeout (30.7%) and walk (6.4%) numbers. I have to think his +1.7 WAR projection is among the very best for relievers around the league this year.

ZiPS uses statistically similar players (weighing more recent seasons the heaviest) and aging curves to generate its projections. The system is aware of injuries but not necessarily how a player produces his results. For all ZiPS knows, Chapman throws 89 mph. In Green’s case, he is a one-pitch pitcher, and that one pitch was less effective last year than it was the year before. The breakdown of Green’s heater:

	Avg Velocity	Spin Rate	Whiffs-per-Swing	xwOBA
2017	95.8 mph	2,484 rpm	39.8%	.216
2018	96.1 mph	2,444 rpm	27.9%	.290

Same velocity, same spin, fewer whiffs, better contact allowed. It should be noted Green’s fastball still had a much better than average whiff rate (20.5% league average) and expected wOBA allowed (.347), but the pitch was not as effective as it was a year prior. Watching him pitch, it seemed to me the book was out on Green. Hitters knew they were likely getting a fastball and they geared up for it.

ZiPS doesn’t know Green lives and dies by his fastball. It doesn’t know he could use a better second pitch to keep hitters honest. He doesn’t need a Dellin Betances curveball or an Adam Ottavino slider. Just something good enough that hitters must respect it. I expect Green to be very good this season, but unless he comes up with a better slider or changeup, I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was in 2017, and maybe not as good as he was in 2018. He strikes me as the reliever most likely to fall short of his ZiPS projection. (Also, ZiPS says Green’s top statistical comp is Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers, and he should absolutely grow the mustache.)

5. Projections as a measure of depth. I like using ZiPS to estimate each team’s depth. Last year the Yankees had 27 (!) players projected for at least +1 WAR. I know a +1 WAR player isn’t all that exciting, but when you have a lot of them, your internal replacement level is pretty high. It means you have some good players stashed in Triple-A. You’re not scraping the bottom of the barrel when you need an injury replacement.

I like to look at each team’s depth at three levels: +1 WAR (okay players), +2 WAR (league average players), and +4 WAR (comfortably above-average players). Simply put, how many of each does each team have? The more the better, obviously. Here’s my spreadsheet (we’re still waiting for the White Sox and Padres projections) and I should note I removed unsigned free agents. The Red Sox don’t get credit for Craig Kimbrel, the Astros don’t get credit for Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel, etc. Here are the Yankees and their ranks:

+1 WAR players: 22 (tenth most)
+2 WAR players: 12 (third most)
+4 WAR players: 3 (fifth most)

This isn’t a perfect measure because ZiPS doesn’t worry about doling out playing time (are Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier both really going to get 450 at-bats?) and the timing can be not great (Edwin Encarnacion was still with Cleveland when the Indians ZiPS were released) but it’s a good ballpark estimate. I’m surprised the Yankees are only tenth in +1 WAR players, especially behind teams like the Twins and Diamondbacks. Huh. Only the Cardinals and Mets have more +2 WAR players. They have 13 apiece. With the farm system thinned out a bit, especially at the upper levels, the Yankees don’t have quite the +1 WAR depth as the last two years. The top of the roster is very strong though, and the Yankees have good depth, at least according to ZiPS.