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Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

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Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

The Very Necessary Depth Starters [2019 Season Preview]

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The No. 4 starter (David Maxwell/Getty)

In the modern MLB, every team needs more than five starters. It’s just the nature of the game.

That especially applies to the 2019 Yankees. Luis Severino is on the shelf until May. CC Sabathia is expected back in mid-April, but he always has his mid-summer IL stint. Therefore, the Yankees are going to need one of their depth starters from the jump and another within a couple of weeks of the season starting.

So who do the Bombers have backing up their starting rotation?

Domingo German

Say hello to your No. 4 starter! That’s right, the pitcher who had a 5.57 ERA last season will be in the Opening Day rotation.

German had an extreme go of it in the rotation in 2018. In his first start, he no-hit Cleveland for six innings. He then gave up six runs in each of his next two starts with a total of six walks and three homers.

While he gave up plenty of home runs and had bouts of wildness, he also displayed flashes of brilliance. In a three-start stretch last June, he struck out 28 batters and walked two over 19 innings.

What won him the rotation spot this spring? German’s pure stuff is electrifying: He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball/sinker with a high-80s change and low-80s curve. His offspeed pitches had a whiff rate of 35.8 and 41.3 percent, respectively.

He struck out 22 and walked just two over 15 1/3 Grapefruit League innings. His 4.11 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story as he gave up five of his eight earned runs in his final spring start, when the Cardinals launched three homers against him.

What is his role for all of 2019? If the Yankees get all five of their main starters healthy, he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A, though there will be plenty of starts. Despite Gio Gonzalez in the system, German could very well get more than the 14 starts he had last season. If he does, the team will need more consistency from the 26-year-old pitcher.

What may help is the opener. For both German and the No. 5 starter, the Yankees may utilize Chad Green or Jonathan Holder as an opener. That’s especially important for German, who had an 8.36 ERA in first innings last year.

Luis Cessa

It feels like Cessa has been on the shuttle between Scranton and the Bronx for a half-decade, but that time will come to an end in 2019. The fourth-year pitcher is out of options and will be serving in the Opening Day bullpen.

While German had good underlying numbers this spring, Cessa had fantastic ones. He struck out 19, walked just two and gave up only 11 hits over 18 1/3 innings.

The 26-year-old righty lives in the mid-90s with the fastball like German but works in a healthy dose of sliders, turning to the pitch 41 percent of the time last year.

His role is more indeterminate than German. He’ll be the long reliever to begin the year, yet his spring performance may make him the favorite to take the No. 5 starter role when the turn first pops up. Unlike German, he won’t be going to Scranton anytime soon and his lack of options may mean this is it for him in pinstripes.

As with any pitcher, working in shorter outings out of the bullpen could unlock a new level of performance for Cessa. He’s done a better job of attacking the zone this spring, which could help his fastball play up in relief action.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Of the Yankees’ depth starting options, Loaisiga has the best pure stuff. His fastball averages 96 mph with a high-80s changeup and low-80s slider/curve. The whiff rate on his slider/curve was well above 30 percent. The spin rate on his curve is in the 86th percentile and his fastball velocity in the 89th. He’s got all the talent to be a contributing major leaguer.

But his health and control tell a different story. He’s a regular on the injured list, as one might expect from a hard-throwing righty under six-feet tall. Meanwhile, despite a strikeout rate above 30 percent last year, he also walked 11.1 percent of batters. His underlying numbers were still above-average, but he had a 5.11 ERA in his short MLB stint.

This season, he’ll be up in the majors for game No. 6 i.e. when Sabathia’s suspension is up. His role is anybody’s guess. Moreso than the previous two entries to this list, he may be ticketed for the bullpen long term and his stuff makes you believe he could be quite dominant once there. His chance to start in the Bronx is slim, even if he grabs the No. 5 spot in mid-April.

Chance Adams

In the next tier, there’s Adams. Added to the 40-man roster for a spot start last August, he didn’t impress in limited action. He’s in his third year repeating Triple-A after his performance took a turn for the worse in 2018.

This may be familiar by now, but he’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball-slider) who gets strikeouts but can’t seem to find the plate often enough for sustained success. He’s walked more than three per nine the last few years with the walk rate going up.

Therefore, this is a big season. He can’t stall out in Triple-A and expect to a have a safe 40-man spot a year from now. His optionability makes him a potential up-and-down arm at times with spot starts likely going elsewhere. He needs to turn things around in Scranton before he sees the Bronx for an extended period.

Who else?

Beyond those four, the team still has some starting depth. Gonzalez’s MiLB deal has an out on April 20 and struggles from German or Cessa could open the door for the established veteran.

After Gonzalez, it’s anybody’s guess. David Hale and Drew Hutchison, both ticketed for Triple-A, each saw some time in the Show last year, with Hale having multiple stints in pinstripes before going overseas. They’re veteran depth arms.

As for prospects, Michael King lost out on Spring Training with an arm injury. Domingo Acevedo didn’t get a look in big league camp and will be repeating Double-A Trenton, though he’s on the 40-man roster. If the Yankees run through the above options and are looking for more, something has seriously gone wrong.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge, 20 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019

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(Presswire)

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Yankees recently wrapped up their final little bit of offseason business. The Yankees have signed their 21 pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2019, reports the Associated Press. That’s everyone. The entire 40-man roster is under contract.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights. The team can pay them pretty much whatever they want, though they usually negotiate with the player and agree to a salary to maintain a good relationship. The Yankees agreed to deals with everyone this year and did not unilaterally renew anyone, which they did with Dellin Betances back in the day.

Here, via the Associated Press, are the salary details. Because I like you, I’ve gone through the trouble of including each player’s year-to-year raise in parenthesis, assuming last year’s salary information is available. The Major League minimum rose from $545,000 last season to $555,000 this season.

Service Time (Years.Days) MLB Salary MiLB Salary
Gary Sanchez 2.086 $669,800 ($49,400) $310,200
Aaron Judge 2.051 $684,300 ($62,000) $311,150
Chad Green 2.050 $598,650 ($27,850) $285,400
Jordan Montgomery 1.153 $596,600 ($16,150) $290,225
Jonathan Holder 1.144 $580,300 $262,947
Luis Cessa 1.131 $578,975 ($10,050) $210,768
Ben Heller 1.096 $555,000 ($7,525) $273,738
Clint Frazier 1.057 $563,300 ($4,100) $222,711
Miguel Andujar 1.020 $617,600 ($71,800) $269,216
Domingo German 1.017 $577,500 ($29,275) $190,150
Tyler Wade 1.007 $572,000 ($20,700) $155,692
Luke Voit 0.169 $573,200 ($27,600) $145,673
Gleyber Torres 0.162 $605,200 ($60,200) $240,210
Kyle Higashioka 0.124 $562,900 $160,207
Jonathan Loaisiga 0.047 $560,550 ($15,550) $92,766
Stephen Tarpley 0.030 $557,250 $90,400
Chance Adams 0.025 $556,725 $90,400
Domingo Acevedo 0.001 $555,000 $90,400
Albert Abreu 0.000 $555,000 $90,400
Thairo Estrada 0.000 $555,000 ($10,000) $90,400
Joe Harvey 0.000 $555,000 $45,300

Unless the two sides agree to a long-term contract, all pre-arb players sign non-guaranteed one-year split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another in the minors. Non-guaranteed means the team can release the player in Spring Training and pay him only a fraction of his contract. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone though. I’m just saying.

Most teams, including the Yankees, have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards voting, things like that. Minor league salary is determined by big league service time and tenure on the 40-man roster more than anything. This is Harvey’s first year on the 40-man. It’s Abreu’s and Estrada’s second and their minor league salaries are almost exactly double Harvey’s. The math is easy enough.

It goes without saying many pre-arb players are grossly underpaid. Judge at less than $700,000 is one of the best bangs for the buck in baseball. Players make nothing early in their careers, and it used to be that teams made it up on the back end during free agency. That isn’t really the case anymore. The MLBPA should push for increased pay for players with 0-6 years of service time. I’m not sure increased spending on free agency is realistic in the analytics era.

The Yankees have already signed Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks long-term this spring, and reports indicate they’re talking extensions with others as well. Impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are presumably the top priorities. Judge and Sanchez are in their final dirt cheap pre-arb season, so I’d assume the Yankees will talk to them about an extension at some point. They might enjoy the huge six-figure production in 2019 first.

The Obligatory Gio Gonzalez Post

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(Getty)

Last week, I wrote the first nice thing I think I’ve ever written about Luis Cessa, which was predicated on him being a reliever, not a starter. A day later, Luis Severino had to stop warming up for a game because of right shoulder inflammation. Later on in the week, the Yankees announced that both Severino and CC Sabathia would be starting the year on the Injured List and all of a sudden, Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga are staring down an opportunity to make the Major League rotation to start the year, rather than the bullpen. As this will shallow the Yankees’ depth, it may make sense to search outside the organization for help; that brings us to Gio Gonzalez.

I’m going with Gonzalez rather than, say, Dallas Keuchel because last week, Gonzalez was linked to the Yankees, not Keuchel. I’ll also say, in the spirit of disclosure, that I’ve always liked Gonzalez as a pitcher. Why? I have no idea; he’s just a guy I’ve always been a fan of. This bias of sorts leads me to think that he’d probably be better than one of the Yankees’ depth options, mostly on experience alone, but let’s see if it’d be worth that.

Depending on where you look, Gonzalez either had a decent year last year (2.0 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) or a pretty bad year (0.7 bWAR) in 171 innings between the Nationals and the Brewers. The numbers behind all that? A 4.21 ERA; a 4.42 RA; a 4.16 FIP; and a 4.17 DRA. His walk rate was 10.7, the first time he’d gone that high since 2011. His strikeout rate was 19.8, his first time ever under 20%. His home run rate, dropped to 10.4 HR/FB%, trending right after two years at 11.1 (2017) and 12.5 (2016). His groundball rate was 45.3%, his lowest since 2014, continuing a downward trend. His fastball velocity has also waned since 2016, something to be expected of a player who’ll turn 34 in September. But, in a fashion that might fit the Yankees, he features something else other than a straight fastball by throwing a sinker. He’s also upped his changeup usage by about 5% from 2017 and about 8% from 2016.

None of those trends really scream out ‘sign me,’ do they? I’ll answer my own question and say they do not, but there are some positives. His groundball rate is still passable, especially when we look more closely at the pitch data from 2018. His sinker, changeup, and curveball all got over 50% GB/BIP, which is great. His four seamer dragged it down at 25% GB/BIP. If Gonzalez focuses less and less on his fastball and more on his sinker, changeup, and curve, he can maybe return to a more prominent position with grounders. Additionally, his change and curve have better whiff/swing rates that his fastball does, which could lead to another uptick in strikeouts.

Basically, the entire idea of Gonzalez comes down to those ifs. Are those ifs worth the risk? Maybe? Gonzalez is a veteran pitcher who comes with a track record. He’s likely to be better–even with his warts–than Cessa and probably German, but Loaisiga’s upside is hard to ignore; however, his health is such a question mark that Gonzalez may be the better play to start. Again, it comes down to another if.

If Gonzalez is okay with a one-year deal, sign him. There’s minimal risk and there are still the minor league options to back him up. If he wants a multi-year deal, I think it’s easy to pass.

Like it or not, the Yanks should use an opener while Severino and Sabathia are sidelined

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Go ahead, give me a good reason why Domingo German should face the top of the lineup in the first inning. (Presswire)

When the 2019 regular season opens in three weeks, the Yankees will be without staff ace Luis Severino and fifth starter CC Sabathia. Severino is dealing with rotator cuff inflammation and Sabathia is working his way back from offseason knee and heart surgery. Sabathia’s delayed start to the season was expected. Severino’s injury came out of nowhere, like most injuries.

“Hopefully it’s as short as necessary, but we need to make sure we give it the time also that’s necessary,” Brian Cashman said to Coley Harvey earlier this week. “He’s an important piece and we’re not going to have him for a period of time. We’ll adjust. That’s what everybody has to do. But it’s obviously a very concerning situation until he’s on the mound for a consistent amount of time to the point that you forget it ever happened.”

Cashman seemingly ruled out an outside rotation addition — “What I’ve got is what I’ve got and we’re comfortable with that. Can’t rule anything out, but I’d say the main focus is what we have,” he said — which isn’t surprising. No general manager would come out and say “yep, we’re ready to sign someone or make a trade” after losing a key player to injury. That’s a good way to crush your leverage.

Realistically, there are four ways the Yankees can replace Severino and Sabathia. One, they could splurge and sign Dallas Keuchel. I wouldn’t bet on that. Two, they could go after Gio Gonzalez, who figures to be cheaper than Keuchel and still offers that Proven Veteran™ track record. Three, they could go real cheap with someone like James Shields or Edwin Jackson. Or four, they could go in-house with Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Jonathan Loaisiga.

The Yankees tend to promote from within to address roster needs these days — remember how Severino made his MLB debut? the Yankees called him up because they didn’t like any of the asking prices at the 2015 trade deadline — so my hunch is they’ll roll with Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. I get adding depth, but is there any reason to believe Jackson or Shields or Bartolo Colon would give the Yankees better production? Eh, not really.

Sticking Cessa, German, or Loaisiga in the rotation and letting them run with it is the most straightforward move. It is not necessarily the best move, however. I think the best move would be pairing them with an opener. Aaron Boone more or less dismissed using an opener last week — “Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that,” he said — but here’s what he told George King following Severino’s injury:

“I could see (an opener) being considered from time to time. I don’t consider it a lot, but I could see it coming into play,” Boone said of employing the opener by using a reliever such as Chad Green to start a game. “There are so many things that go into that for us. A long stretch of games, you may want to give a guy an extra day. When we are healthy and right, I don’t see it that much.”

When healthy, the Yankees don’t have any opener candidates. Sabathia is the best candidate to be paired with an opener, but he has a longer than usual warm-up routine, and that might not translate well to the bullpen. An opener with Sabathia could be a net negative. With Severino and Sabathia sidelined though, and presumably two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation, suddenly the Yankees have two candidates for an opener.

The opener is both a smart strategy and a total drag to watch. The additional pitching changes and constant bullpen monitoring distract from the actual game. Strategically, it’s brilliant. You match up one of your better pitchers against the top of the lineup (i.e. the other team’s best hitters) in the first inning, then turn it over to someone who can get you through three or four (or five) innings while facing the top of the lineup only once. It’s smart. It is.

Cessa, German, and Loaisiga are all young pitchers with recent bullpen experience — they all pitched in relief for the Yankees at times last year — and the Yankees certainly have the bullpen depth to swing this. They could use Chad Green as an opener and still have Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino for the late innings. I wouldn’t be opposed to using Betances as an opener and really dropping the hammer.

German really struggled in the first inning last year (8.36 ERA and .283/.348/.667 against) though I don’t think we need to dig up stats to validate the strategy. Generally speaking, the other team’s best hitters bat in the first inning. That has been the case for decades. Top relievers like Green, Betances, and Ottavino are better equipped to retire the other team’s best hitters than inexperienced kids like Cessa, German, and Loaisiga. It’s pretty simple.

The difficult part — and this is what Rays manager Kevin Cash did so well last year — is getting the players to buy in. Throwing Betances rather than Cessa at Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez in the first inning sounds great, but is Dellin comfortable pitching that early in the game? Pitchers are creatures of habit. Disrupt their routine and bad things can happen. There’s an adjustment that has to be made.

Remember, the opener was born out of necessity. The Rays used it last year because they were hit hard by injuries last spring. Nathan Eovaldi was slowed by loose bodies in his elbow and pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon needed Tommy John surgery. Tampa had Chris Archer and Blake Snell, and that was it. They came up with a creative way to navigate around the pitching injuries and lack of rotation depth.

The Yankees, when healthy, don’t need an opener. Their starters are plenty good enough. The Yankees aren’t healthy though, and barring a surprise signing or trade, they’re going to go into the regular season with two of Cessa, German, and Loaisiga in the rotation. That’s not great. Dipping into that deep bullpen to use an opener will allow the kids to avoid the top of the order once per game, which will increase their chances of having a productive outing.

At this point the opener is a legitimate baseball strategy more than a gimmick. And, with the AL East race expected to be tight all season, every game takes on increased importance. The Yankees are already without two of their top five starters. Anything they can do to make life easier on the fill-in starters should not be dismissed. The opener can make for some ugly baseball, believe me I know, but it can also give the Yankees a better chance to win when Cessa, German, or Loaisiga are on the mound.