Mike Trout Archives - River Avenue Blues

4/22 to 4/25 Series Preview: Los Angeles Angels

April 22, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Let’s hope the west coast is the best coast for the Yankees’ purposes as they begin a nine-game trip in Anaheim.

Their Story So Far

The Angels sit in the cellar of the American League West with a 9-13 record and -11 run differential. Their offense has been sluggish with a slightly below-average wRC+ despite having the literal best player in baseball, Mike Trout. Their pitching staff has been middling to below-average as well, though they’ve outperformed their peripherals.

As a staff, they allow 1.81 homers per nine, fourth-worst in baseball. Their bullpen has actually settled in with the fourth-best ERA in the AL, but their rotation has been a mess due to just about everyone calling the injured list their home, putting together a collective 6.13 ERA.

Injury Report

The Angels have similar injury issues to the Yankees but on the pitching side. Justin Upton (turf toe) is out until June while pitchers Andrew Heaney (elbow), JC Ramirez (Tommy John), Keynan Middleton (Tommy John), Nick Tropeano (shoulder strain) and Tyler Skaggs (ankle sprain) are all out with only Skaggs potentially returning this month.

Their biggest name on the IL is, of course, Shohei Ohtani, both a hitter and a pitcher. He should be back early next month as a hitter only while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Player Spotlight: Mike Trout

If you don’t want to marvel about Mike Trout, skip two paragraphs down. Trout doesn’t have the best wRC+ in baseball, but his 221 mark is right near the top. He tops the American League in fWAR and bWAR, has an unreal .333/.524/.719 batting line and walks more than he strikes out.

In fact, Trout walks in nearly a fourth of his plate appearances, 24.4 percent to be exact. He’s cut down on his stolen base attempts this season — though he is 1-for-1 in steals — while remaining a force in center field. There isn’t a player right now that hits as well as he does, and it’s a credit to the New Jersey product that he maintains his excellence in the field.

Milestone Watch

Albert Pujols is the active leader in home runs, RBI and GIDP, among other categories, and he may move up the all-time RBI list this series. According to Baseball Reference, he is seventh with 1,993 RBI. Lou Gehrig had 1,995 in his career while Barry Bonds is in fifth place with 1,996. The Yankees obviously would like to delay his passing of the Iron Horse or all-time home run champ, but be on the lookout for Pujols this week.

Potential Lineup

The Yankees are starting two lefties this series, so here’s the lineup for LHPs. Kole Calhoun leads off against righties while backup catcher Kevan Smith (126 wRC+) started at DH against LHP Yusei Kikuchi on Saturday. LHB Brian Goodwin (180 wRC+) also gets time in LF against RHPs, as does 2B Tommy La Stella (148 wRC+).

David Fletcher, 2B (.299/.347/.403, 104 wRC+)
Mike Trout, CF (.333/.524/.719, 221 wRC+)
Andrelton Simmons, SS (.273/.281/.398, 81 wRC+)
Albert Pujols, DH (.238/.351/.429, 114 wRC+)
Justin Bour, 1B (.203/.319/.305, 79 wRC+)
Jonathan Lucroy, C (.297/.328/.328, 82 wRC+)
Kole Calhoun, RF (.184/.271/.395, 80 wRC+)
Peter Bourjos, LF (.103/.122/.128, -40 wRC+)
Zack Cozart, 3B (.102/.141/.119, -33 wRC+)

Pitching Matchups

Monday (10:07 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Matt Harvey (vs. Yankees)

Harvey got a fresh start with the team of his choosing this offseason, but his troubles on the mound followed him across the country. Through four starts, the former ace has allowed 21 runs (20 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. His WHIP is a hair under 2.00 and he’s surrendered four home runs. he hasn’t made it through five innings since his first start.

The former future Yankee averages 94 mph on his fastball, down about two mph from its 2015 peak. His slider, which he throws 30 percent of the time, sits in the mid-to-high 80s with a changeup and curveball mixed in.

If you’re looking for a silver lining for Harvey, his FIP is 5.99, a good 3.65 runs lower than his ERA. Furthermore, he’s had to face the Athletics, Rangers and Brewers thus far, each sporting a much better offense than the one he’ll see tonight.

Tuesday (10:07 PM ET): RHP Domingo German (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Chris Stratton (vs. Yankees)

Stratton hasn’t had a much better go of it than Harvey in his new digs after a few seasons with the Giants. The right-hander has allowed 14 runs over 18 innings in four starts while walking more (13) than he’s struck out (11). Unlike Harvey, his WHIP is exactly 2.00.

Though Stratton had some walk issues in the past, they weren’t this extreme. Either his control is gone or there’s a semi-return to form coming. When the ball has been put in play, he’s been able to avoid hard contact this season, even if that wasn’t the case last year.

The 28-year-old has cut back on his low-90s fastball usage, relying more on his slider and curveball with the Angels. He also uses a changeup, though his high-spin fastball is his calling card.

Wednesday (10:07 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Felix Pena (vs. Yankees)

Pena has been the Angels’ best healthy starter, sporting a 4.15 ERA through four starts, though he’s also only accumulated 17 1/3 innings. His control has been more suspect than last year, leading baseball with three HBPs while his walk rate has climbed by 2.4 percent in a small sample.

He’s actually outperformed his peripherals. He allows plenty of hard contact and has an FIP of 6.21 thanks to more than two homers per nine and just 14 strikeouts this season.

Pena attacks with a low-90s fastball half the time and then uses his low-80s curve another 40 percent of the time, using his changeup the rest of the way.

Thursday (9:07 PM ET) RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Angels) vs. RHP Trevor Cahill (vs. Yankees)

Cahill finally did it last season: He beat the Yankees. After six disastrous outings previously, he allowed just three runs over five innings to top the Bombers last Labor Day. That lowered his ERA against the Bombers to … 10.09. Yikes.

However, much of his history with the Yankees came against players long gone or off the roster. Luke Voit homered in one of two ABs against him last year while Brett Gardner has reached seven times.

Maybe this Yankee lineup can shake him out of an early-season malaise. Cahill has allowed a league-high eight home runs while otherwise looking like the successful starter from a year ago. Primarily a groundball pitcher, he’s allowed more flyballs than grounders this year. The right-hander has gone to his offspeed stuff more often than ever, using his fastball just 40 percent of the time.

Bullpen Status

Anaheim carries eight relievers with former Indians reliever Cody Allen taking closing duties. Like in Cleveland, he’s been shaky with walks but remains the closer for now. That role could change after he allowed a homer to his only batter Sunday.

The Angels have only righties in their pen. Cam Bedrosian, Hansel Robles, Luis Garcia and Ty Buttrey work in middle relief with Buttrey and Garcia combining to allow just one run in 18 2/3 innings. Noe Ramirez had been going well until allowing four runs in 1 2/3 innings yesterday.

Luke Bard (yes, Daniel’s brother) and Taylor Cole are lower leverage relievers for the club

Keys for the series

Starting off strong

With a full lineup worth of hitters on the injured list, the Yankees are reliant on their starting pitching. Luckily, based on the last week, that is starting to round into shape. They need to stay strong in Angel Stadium and deal with …

Trout

This is obvious, but you can’t let Trout beat you. Add to his league-leading walk total if you must, but don’t let him beat you. Force Simmons, Pujols and Bour to knock you out. This is so much easier said than done.

Health

Can we go one series without another major injury? Is that too much to ask?

Passan: Angels, Mike Trout nearing record $430M extension

March 19, 2019 by Mike

According to Jeff Passan, the Angels and Mike Trout are nearing a record 12-year extension worth $430M. It is ten years and $363.5M on top of the two years and $66.5M remaining on his current contract. This is easily the largest contract in baseball history, breaking Bryce Harper’s record.

Here are the six largest contracts in baseball history:

Mike Trout, Angels: 12 years, $430M
Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

Four of the six were signed within the last month or so, which I’m sure some will say is evidence baseball is just fine economically. In other news, the Yankees signed a league average starter who’s thrown at least 170 innings in eight of the last nine seasons to a minor league contract yesterday.

Trout’s contract reportedly includes no opt-outs and, if it doesn’t include no-trade protection, he’s less than three years away from picking up five-and-ten rights. Who knows how things will play out over the next 12 years. It sure seems like this contract will keep Trout in Anaheim the rest of his career though, and that’s pretty cool.

At age 27, Trout is already a slam dunk Hall of Famer, having hit .317/.416/.573 (172 wRC+) with 240 homers, 189 steals, and +64 WAR in parts of eight big league seasons. Last season was maybe his best ever (.312/.460/.628 and 191 wRC+) and he still has multiple peak years remaining. He is very deserving of this contract.

The Trout extension doesn’t have much impact on the Yankees other than taking away a potential free agent target in two years, so this is a pretty good reminder that you should sign acquire elite talent while you can. I don’t believe the Yankees passed on Harper and Machado now because they wanted Arenado or Trout later. I’m just sayin’.

Post-All-Star, Pre-Deadline Thoughts

July 22, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Greetings, readers. I hope you’re enjoying our return to baseball as we gear up for the trade deadline and the stretch run. Cliche as it is, I can’t believe we’re here already. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about shaking out a new lineup and anticipating Aaron Boone’s performance as a manager. The years really do seem to go faster and faster, don’t they? Anyway, here are some thoughts I’ve had about baseball and the Yankees, ranging from the All Star Game to the trade deadline, and a few places in between.

All-Star Awesomeness

The main wish you have for your team’s All-Star participants is for them not to get hurt. Next, it’s for them to play well and have fun. It’s hard to argue with the latter two for the Yankees’ representatives at the ASG. Aaron Judge hit a home run and Luis Severino had a great inning, featuring a nasty strikeout of Bryce Harper. Additionally, Aroldis Chapman snapped a bunch of cool pictures and Gleyber Torres videoed Judge’s homer from the dugout. More stuff like that, please. The ASG is already an exhibition, so just go all out with it. Have bench players video everything. Mic up all the players–pitcher and catcher excluded–and play that audio for an inning. It’s unlikely that MLB switches up to a new format–East v. West; US v. World, etc.–so making the game as engaging as possible is the route to go. Will it attract a bunch of new eyes? Probably not. But it will give current fans a bit of a new look and that’s a welcome thought.

Dissing Mike Trout to Own the….????

I’m obviously last in line for this take, but this is what you get when you write on Sundays and stuff happens mid-week. I’ve been up front with my desire for MLB to do a better job of marketing its stars and young players, Mike Trout chief among them. Clearly, Mike Trout is fine with the exposure he already has and with doing things more behind the scenes. That’s great and good for him. Not everyone has to be outgoing. How bad of a look is it, then, for Rob Manfred to shovel the blame onto Trout? How many times is baseball going to keep shooting itself in the foot publicly? Aside from the NFL and its anthem-centric debacles, how could MLB have worse national PR this year? Between the griping about too many homers and walks and strikeouts and constantly digging up the ‘bad’ parts of the game to now calling out the best player in the game, Manfred is on a real streak here.

Trout is essentially the epitome of the “play the game the ‘right’ way and keep your head down” culture that MLB and its players foster from day one on. If that’s how he is, fine, but that doesn’t mean it should be a one size fits all thing. Baseball is starting to get that idea, but it’s not quite trickling down to the players. Letting players express themselves in-game will only help bring new eyes to the set. Hopefully, the players start to realize they have an interest in this, too, and beaning a guy for being happy about something is not the way to go anymore.

My Kingdom For a Pitcher

Remember all the way back to 2016 when the Yankees had that disaster series against the Rays and it was the impetus for trading away Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Carlos Beltran? Regardless of that series, the Yankees should’ve done it anyway, but the path showed itself there and the Yankees are better for having done it. Similarly, the Yankees have needed and will need to trade for a starting pitcher this year. The moment that made that even more abundantly clear was on Friday night when Domingo German let the Mets hang three on him in the first inning. Undoubtedly, the Yankees have been working on deals for starters behind the scenes before, during, and after that mess of an inning, but that was just a perfect reminder of what the Yankees will need to do to win the division. Sonny Gray has–luckily–had two good starts in a row (albeit against bad teams), so hopefully he’s beginning to build momentum. Even if he is, though, the Yankees still need a starter.

Prospect depth gives Yankees a chance to do something that once seemed impossible

November 16, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

This season the Yankees did something that really had been a long-time coming. They committed to a youth movement. It actually started last season with the Didi Gregorius trade and Greg Bird and Luis Severino call-ups, but this year the Yankees took it a step further by trading productive veterans for prospects at the deadline. We haven’t seen them do that in nearly three decades.

As a result, the Yankees now have one of the best farm systems in baseball, if not the best. Jim Callis calls it the deepest system in the game. Depending what happens with Brett Gardner and Brian McCann this offseason, it’s entirely possible Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley will be the only players over 27 in the starting lineup come Opening Day next year. The Yankees could have youngsters all over the field. That’s exciting!

You know what else is exciting? Trading a whole bunch of those prospects for Mike Trout. Think about it, what better player is there to build around going forward than the best player on the planet, who himself turned only 25 four months ago? There isn’t one. Trout’s not just great. He’s historically great and well on his way to being in the inner circle of the inner circle of the Hall of Fame. A generational talent, indisputably.

The idea of a Trout trade creates two obvious big picture questions: why would the Angels do it and why would the Yankees do it? Let’s answer the second question first because it’s easiest. Because Trout’s insanely good and not every prospect is going to work out. Hang on to all the kids and you’re inevitably going to be left with a lot of nothing. That’s baseball. The attrition rate for even tippy top prospects is pretty darn high.

As for the Angels, this is where it gets complicated. Take Trout away from the Angels and they’re an unmitigated disaster. The 2011-13 Astros but somehow more hopeless. They have baseball’s worst farm system and so very few long-term assets at the big league level. There’s Andrelton Simmons and, uh, C.J. Cron? Trout is more valuable to his franchise’s well-being than any other player in baseball. He’s the only reason the Halos are relevant.

More than a few folks have said the Angels would be wise to trade Trout for a godfather package to kick start their rebuild, and there is some validity to that. He’d bring back almost an unprecedented amount of talent. Personally, I think it’s a heck of a lot easier to rebuild a farm system than it is to get the best player in the world on your roster when he’s only 25. That’s just me.

Anaheim has given zero indication Trout is available. Angels GM Billy Eppler, who spent all those years as Brian Cashman’s right-hand man, said last year Trout “means too much to this clubhouse, community, organization,” to trade. And he’s right. It’d be like trading Derek Jeter. Like I said, take Trout away from the Angels and they’re in worse shape than any team we’ve seen in a very long time. Their situation is that dire.

Convincing the Angels to part with Trout is the hard part. I actually think putting together a trade package would be pretty easy for the Yankees. It depends how much they’re willing to stomach more than anything. Prospects? Whatever, they’re all on the table. Gary Sanchez? Of course you put him in a Trout trade if that’s what it takes. He just had a Trout-like two months. Trout just had his fifth straight Trout-like year.

I don’t think a player of Trout’s caliber has ever been traded. The closed comparable is the Alex Rodriguez trade, which was motivated by money more than anything. It’s apples and oranges. Putting together hypothetical trade proposals is pointless because a) your trade proposal sucks, and b) there’s no real precedent for trading the best player in the world four years before he becomes a free agent. No one has been crazy enough to do it yet.

This, I think, is the most important thing to understand: the Yankees could give up a hefty package of young talent for Trout and still have plenty left over. The Angels are Trout and nothing else. The Yankees would not become Trout and nothing else with the trade. Their talent base right now so far exceeds what the Angels have put around Trout that even gutting the system to make the trade leaves them with a respectable roster.

Consider Baseball America’s top ten Yankees prospects for a second. The Yankees could take the top six guys, send them to the Angels for Trout, and still have a top 100 prospect left, not to mention Sanchez and Bird and Severino and Gregorius and Masahiro Tanaka and others at the MLB level. This wouldn’t be like the 68-win Reds gutting their system for Trout. The Yankees are in better position to make a move like that.

Here’s the other thing to consider: trading prospects not on the big league roster for Trout instantly makes the Yankees contenders. He’s a legitimate +9 WAR player. A balance of power player. He changes the entire dynamic within a division. Adding Trout moves New York’s timetable for contention up from “we hope sometime within the next two or three years” to right now. That is huge.

As it stands right now, the Yankees’ master plan seems to be incorporating young players into the roster while shedding payroll and resetting the luxury tax rate, so when some actually good players become free agents, they can sign them to boost the roster. Good plan, in theory. Risky because the prospects might not work out and those players might not become free agents, but that’s life. Everything is risky.

Acquiring Trout is a much more straightforward plan, and also the “safer” play as well. You’re getting value from your prospects and acquiring an undeniably great player. It’s a franchise-altering move. For both teams, the Yankees and Angels. He changes everything. The timetable, the team building philosophy, everything. The Angels would slip into a deep rebuild while the Yankees could suddenly start gearing up for serious contention again. It would be the blockbuster of all blockbusters. The Wayne Gretzky trade all over again. It would shock the world.

Sadly, there is basically no chance Trout gets traded this offseason. And if the Halos did put him on the market, the Yankees would face stiff competition. The Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Astros, and every other team in the league would get involved. Eppler and Angels owner Arte Moreno — trading Trout is a decision that gets made at the ownership level, not the GM level — would create the mother of all bidding wars. It would be total chaos.

Sending a whole bunch of prospects to the Angels for the best player in baseball is a fun idea that almost certainly will never happen. The timing is not right. The farm system is ready for a trade now but the Angels aren’t. When the Angels are ready to trade Trout, if they ever are, the farm system probably won’t be. Such is life.

The Yankees added all these prospects recently and we’re all attached to them and excited. We’ve been waiting for this for years. I know I have. Turning around and trading these kids might be tough to swallow, but as far as I’m concerned, trading for a player of Trout’s caliber is never a bad move. Not when you’re the New York Yankees.

Mailbag: Nationals, Betances, Rotation, Trout

April 4, 2014 by Mike 92 Comments

Six questions in this week’s mailbag, so you know what that means: six answers. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week.

Pete asks: Wilson Ramos is hurt again. Would a trade of either John Ryan Murphy or Austin Romine for Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard work?

I really doubt the Nationals, who have World Series aspirations, would trade on of their ace setup men for a catching prospect who will only be a backup to Jose Lobaton while Ramos is out. If you’re going to shoot that high, I’d ask for Danny Espinosa instead. I’m confident the Yankees can cobble together a quality bullpen from internal options — Clippard or Storen, both of whom the Yankees drafted once upon a time, would obviously help though — but the infield cupboard is bare. You’re ambitious, The Yankees would have to add major sweeter to the pot to build a trade for one of those two righties around Murphy or especially Romine.

Jonathan asks: Dellin Betances has looked great out of the bullpen in ST and in the opener. Is the door closed to him ever competing for a spot in the rotation in the future?

I don’t think he’ll ever start another game in his career. The Yankees stuck it out and tried to make it work with Betances as a starter for a long time, but it never took. He’s had a lot of success in his relatively short time as a reliever and considering that he looked like a lost cause as recently as last April, I’d leave him right where he is and be happy he’s contributing. Betances has said the move to the bullpen helped him because it simplified things, remember. No need to get cute and try to make him a starter again.

Cory asks: Would it surprise you at all if any one of the starting five ended up being the best pitcher of the group this year? Or the worst? There’s a lot to be excited and worried about.

I would be surprised if Hiroki Kuroda ended up being the worst pitcher in the rotation, but that’s about it. The starting staff is very boom or bust in my opinion. It could be excellent, legitimately one of the best in the game, but there’s also a ton that could go wrong and make it one of the worst. The end result will probably be somewhere in the middle. Some things go right, some things go wrong. Such is life.

Anonymous asks: Let’s say the Yankees find some luck and have some of their minor league players come up and have success. Being that they broke their policy and signed Brett Gardner to an extension this year, do you see them signing more of their homegrown players to extensions that seem to be the norm around the league now?

Yes, definitely. Cashman confirmed the “no extensions” policy was a thing of the past after the Gardner deal and it has to be. The game has changed and keeping your own players is incredibly important. Relying on free agency to build your roster year after year won’t work like it did back in the day, when star players were available every winter. Heck, forget star players, even solid regulars are hard to find these days. Whenever the Yankees have another young player worthy of an extension (Ivan Nova? Michael Pineda?), I’m sure they will explore signing him long-term.

Warren asks: Thoughts on the Mike Trout deal? My initial reaction is seriously? How did he give up that much money especially in light of what Miguel Cabrera just got paid?

I thought it was fair for both sides. Maybe he left a couple bucks on the table, but he is still a player under team control with little leverage. He was going to be with the Angels the next four seasons no matter what. Cabrera was much closer to free agency when he signed his (crazy) deal the other week. Sure, Trout could have asked for ten years and $300M, but I’m not sure he would have gotten it. The Angels might not be in a position to make that sort of commitment right now. Trout has his generational long-term security and he still gets to hit free agency at 29. The Halos have the prime years of the best player in the world under contract. Seems pretty great for both sides.

Anonymous asks: (Regarding last week’s mailbag question about Derek Jeter’s best teammates) I’d like to see this with best single season WAR during this era. Obviously Ryan remains on the bench. Do other positions change?

So I put together that teammate team for Jeter last week using bWAR accumulated during his career as a full-time player, so 1996 through 2013. Instead of using total WAR — I’m using bWAR because it’s easy to search and it’s perfect for a fun, quick-and-dirty exercise like this — we’ll now use single season bWAR. So the best season by a Yankees catcher during Jeter’s career, the best season by a first baseman, so on and so forth. My only playing time criteria is that the player played at least 50% of his games at whatever position in a given season.

Here’s the single-season bWAR team. Click on the links for the full results at each position:

Catcher: 2003 Jorge Posada (5.9 bWAR)
First Base: 2002 Jason Giambi (7.1)
Second Base: 2012 Robinson Cano (8.4)
Third Base: 2007 Alex Rodriguez (9.4)
Left Field: 2010 Brett Gardner (7.3)
Center Field: 2011 Curtis Granderson (5.7)
Right Field: 1998 Paul O’Neill (5.8)
Designated Hitter: 2009 Hideki Matsui (2.7)
Bench: 2012 Chris Stewart (1.0), 2013 Jayson Nix (0.9), 2012 Eric Chavez (1.6), 2001 Shane Spencer (2.1),
Rotation: 1997 Andy Pettitte (8.4), 2011 CC Sabathia (7.5), 2001 Mike Mussina (7.1), 1997 David Cone (6.8), 2006 Chien-Ming Wang (6.0)
Bullpen: 1996 Mariano Rivera (5.0), 2011 David Robertson (4.0), 2004 Tom Gordon (4.0), 1997 Mike Stanton (2.8), 2012 Rafael Soriano (2.6), 2009 Phil Hughes (2.6), 2006 Scott Proctor (2.6)

Ryan doesn’t make the bench because Nix simply had more at-bats with the team last year and accumulated more WAR in pinstripes. Nix had 1.2 bWAR during his two years with the team but he played more games at third base (70) than shortstop (66), which is why I took Ryan as my backup shortstop on the other team. Got it? Good.

The shortstop for this team would be 1999 Jeter (8.0 bWAR), which isn’t very surprising. We could have taken 2005 A-Rod at third base instead of 2007 A-Rod since he had 9.4 bWAR both years, but yeah, I’m taking the guy who hit 54 homers, not the chump who only hit 48. Giambi actually had the best DH season (2.8 bWAR in 2006), but I didn’t want to use him at two positions. If I were to use the same player multiple times, there would be two Mussinas in the rotation plus pretty much the entire bullpen would be Mo. I also pick actually bench/part-time players for the bench.

Anyway, that team is pretty stacked. Granderson is the worst regular position player (by bWAR) and he hit .262/.364/.552 (142 OPS+) with 41 homers during that 2011 season. The gap between the top three reliever seasons and everyone else is pretty big — there were several Rivera seasons in the 3.something bWAR range — but it’s not surprising considering how dominant those three were in those years. The gap between 2002 Giambi the next best first baseman (2009 Mark Teixeira) is almost two full wins. That’s nuts. Then again, Giambi was a monster that year. What a team that is.

Mailbag: Trout, Pineda, Lynn, Kelly, Halladay

November 1, 2013 by Mike 37 Comments

Only four questions week and they kinda suck. Nah, just kidding. I say they’re good every week, so I wanted to see if anyone is actually pays attention. Remember, the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar is the best way to send us anything throughout the week.

Keith asks: Since there is lots of discussion this offseason about the Yankees’ minor leagues and their development of prospects, I’ve been kind of obsessed with the what ifs. One that particularly sticks out is Mike Trout. It’s been widely reported that the Yankees scouts were on him and of course the Angels ended up drafting Trout with the Yankees compensation pick. If the Yankees don’t sign Mark Teixeira and instead draft Mike Trout, would he even be in the Majors yet? Would they have found a way to screw up his development too?

First things first: if the Yankees did not sign Teixeira, their first round pick would have gone to the Brewers for CC Sabathia. If they did not sign Teixeira and Sabathia, it would have gone to the Blue Jays for A.J. Burnett. They would have had to pass on all three to keep their first rounder, and even then the Angels still would have had a pick (the compensation pick for Francisco Rodriguez) before the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal said the Halos had Trout second on their behind only Stephen Strasburg, so I assume they would have still taken him before New York had a chance at him.

Anyway, just for the sake of argument, let’s assume the Yankees somehow landed Trout in the draft that year. I think that in some cases, with historically great players and generational talents like Trout, the development part almost doesn’t matter. They’re going to succeed no matter what because there isn’t even that much developing that needs to be done, the raw talent is enough. Alex Rodriguez was like that. Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson … players like that. They’re so good and physically gifted that the only thing that can stop them (other than injury) is a lack of effort and work ethic on their part. I truly believe that. Trout was so good that not even the Yankees could have screwed him up. He would have been in the show right now and still been a star.

Kevin asks: Obviously they’ll try starting first but any chance Michael Pineda’s future with the team is ultimately in the bullpen? It wouldn’t put the stress of 170+ innings on his arm and that way they could possibly get some return on the investment.

Oh it’s definitely possible his future lies in the bullpen. He kept running into a wall around the 70-ish pitch mark during his minor league starts this year, and after such a major shoulder surgery, there’s a chance he may not be able to hold up for 100+ pitches anymore. I’m not sold on the idea that relieving on an unpredictable schedule is less stressful than having a routine and starting every five days, but a move to the bullpen is the next logical step if the starting thing proves to be too much for Pineda.

Ryan asks: What are your thoughts on Roy Halladay? Even though he is older and had the injury, I think the Yankees should sign him. Still has the stuff and experience, similarly to David Cone when they signed him.

I strongly disagree there. He doesn’t have the stuff. He might as he gets further away from the shoulder surgery in May, but Halladay was a shell of his former self late in the season. It wasn’t even Jamie Moyer stuff. No life on his fastball, loopy breaking balls, no command … it was ugly. He looked no part of a big league pitcher. Watching him pitch like that in September made it hard to believe he was the best pitcher in the world as recently as 2011.

The Yankees can’t help themselves when it comes to once-great big name players, so I do expect them to kick the tires on Halladay this winter. He has AL East experience obviously, though I’m not sure that matters much at this point. He’s not the same guy. He hasn’t been the same guy for two years now. There is no way I would guarantee Halladay anything — minor league contract or no contract, that’s it — based on that look in September, there’s no chance whatsoever I would guarantee him a rotation spot. Absolutely zero. If he wants to take a minor league deal and earn his way onto the roster, great. If not, oh well.

Ben asks: It’s pretty staggering to think about all the pitching St. Louis has right now: Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, even Jaime Garcia. It’s fair to say they’d benefit from trading one or two of those guys. If you were the Yankees GM, what would you think a fair package would be to trade for Lynn or Kelly? Would we possibly have the pieces to trade for Martinez or Rosenthal?

Definite no on Martinez and Rosenthal. As for Lynn or Kelly, I have to think a shortstop would be atop the Cardinals wishlist. It’s hard to believe they did so well this season with a total zero at short in Pete Kozma. The Yankees don’t have a shortstop to give up unless St. Louis is particularly high on Eduardo Nunez, which I doubt they are. Jon Jay had a better year than I realized, so Brett Gardner doesn’t make much sense for them either. I’d have no trouble getting behind a Gardner for Lynn or (especially) Kelly trade, but that doesn’t seem realistic at all. I’m not sure there’s much of a fit here otherwise. The Cardinals are pretty stacked everywhere except short.

Mailbag: Granderson, Beltran, Choo, Trout, PEDs

August 16, 2013 by Mike 26 Comments

Got five questions for you this week. The best way to send us anything is the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

John asks: Looking ahead to next year (because that’s sort of all we have at this point) the Yankees clearly need another outfielder (or two). As such, being purely hypothetical here, would you rather have Curtis Granderson at 1/$14M, Carlos Beltran at 2/$30M or Shin-Soo Choo at 4/$60M?

Of those three choices, I’m definitely taking Granderson on a one-year, $14M deal. Beltran would be my second choice and Choo a distant third. Choo sure gets a lot of attention for an injury prone platoon player who isn’t all that good on defense, doesn’t he? He’s awesome against right-handed pitchers, among the best in the world, but there’s much more to life than that.

Anyway, Beltran is still a really good hitter, the the big drop in walk rate and overall rise in swing-and-miss rate are major red flags for a 36-year-old hitter. I’ve explained this before. Add in his injury history and the overall risk that comes with guys closer to 40 than 30, and I’m very skeptical about giving him a multi-year pact. I don’t think it would be a disaster if the Yankee signed Beltran to a two-year, $30M contract (that would be a nice raise from his current two-year, $26M deal), but it’s not a slam dunk at this point.

Granderson, even at a premium salary, on a one-year contract is a pretty great deal. All of his injuries this year were flukes, he’s shown his old power, and he’s not at the point where you’d expect him fall of a cliff at age 32 (33 in March). The Yankees have enough really old veteran players on multi-year pacts and I really don’t want to see them add another to the pile at this point. Granderson for one year limits the risk and gives them a productive player. He’s the lesser of three evils, in this scenario.

Nick asks: Suggested post (motivated mainly by Jon Morosi’s column): Hiroki Kuroda’s chances of winning the Cy Young. Consider the contenders and say what Hiroki realistically needs to do between now and season end to be in with any kind of shot.

I looked at the AL Cy Young race a little more in depth at CBS last week, so I’ll point you to that rather than regurgitate it all here. Long story short: there are a lot of legitimate candidates in the AL but Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer stand out from the pack right now. Chris Sale deserves to be in that group as well, but he won’t get much love thanks to his crummy teammates.

Kuroda has the great 2.33 ERA and AL-best 174 ERA+, but his record (11-7) isn’t anything special, his strikeout rate (6.40 K/9 and 18.1 K%) is below-average, and his FIP (3.25) is very good but not on par with the other Cy Young candidates. To make a serious push for the award, pretty much one thing has to happen: the Yankees need to win his starts. A lot of them. He’ll have to maintain that ERA/FIP and finish the year with an 18-8 record or something to have a serious shot. That’s the easiest way to do it.

Even then, it’s probably not enough. Remember, for a Yankee to win a major award, they need to have an insanely great year that is far better than the other candidates. Think 2007 Alex Rodriguez. There’s definitely a Yankee bias at work in the voting. Kuroda’s been awesome, but his performance this year is still a notch between Felix, Scherzer, and Sale for me. Those guys have been outrageously good.

Brian asks: I saw a little blurb on MLBTR regarding Mike Trout and the Angels. Trout is obviously worth far more than his current league minimum contract, but if the Angels sit back and decide to continue to paying him league minimum, could Trout theoretically hold out like they do in football? Is there any baseball precedent to that?

There is no precedent for that in baseball as far as I know, certainly not recently. If he were the hold out, I imagine the team would suspend him without pay, which would do some damage to his image. It happens. At this point of his career, Trout is stuck making whatever the Angels are willing to pay him. Is it fair? Of course not. But that’s the salary system that was collectively bargained.

Trout has one more year at (or near) the league minimum before becoming eligible for arbitration, when he’ll at least have some say in his salary. He can’t become a free agent until after the 2017 campaign. I don’t know if Trout will hold enough of a grudge to pass on a long-term contract if the Halos make an offer, but it would surprise me. He’s already in nine-figure contract extension territory and that’s hard to pass up.

Rosco asks: I know a lot of people are praising MLB for suspending players for PEDs associated with the Miami clinic, but shouldn’t we worry that none of them tested positive? How many other players are using that we do not know about because it seems the testing systems has some holes?

That’s the part going completely unnoticed. Not a single player tested positive and a local newspaper in Miami managed to get wind of the scandal before the league. That’s the nature of the beast though, the drugs will always be ahead of the tests. There’s no doubt the recent suspensions send a strong message — we’re going to go to great lengths to find you if you’ve been cheating! — but that alone won’t be enough of a disincentive for many players. The only thing MLB can do is test and test, that’s all. Sports will never be completely clean.

Lee asks: I saw these stats on defensive shifts a couple of weeks ago, but haven’t seen any commentary on them anywhere, and would love to hear your thoughts. The Yankees are THIRD in the use of defensive shifts? Wow, I guess I’ve been so mesmerized by how bad their offense is that I didn’t notice! But even more incredible, ZERO runs saved???? That’s almost funny — they just can’t get anything right this year.

Yeah, the Yankees definitely seem to suck at shift. Anecdotally, they seem to pitch away from the situation quite a bit, meaning they pitch outside with soft stuff while playing the hitter to pull. That doesn’t make sense. The defense on the left side of the infield has been terrible pretty much all year, which is another factor. I give them credit for trying — it’s interesting that four of the top five shifting teams are from the AL East, no? — but I’m not sure they have the personnel to pull off some fancy shifts at this point. The infield defense is too immobile.