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River Ave. Blues » Archie Bradley

The Diamondbacks are ready to listen to trade offers and they have several players who could help the Yankees

October 18, 2018 by Mike

Goldy & Peralta. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

By almost any measure, the 2018 season was a spectacular failure for the Diamondbacks. Arizona spent more days in first place (125) than any other National League team this year, but they lost 24 of their final 35 games, and collapsed out of the postseason picture. The D’Backs finished 9.5 games back in the NL West and 8.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Ouch.

Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock are free agents this offseason and Paul Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, meaning the D’Backs’ window is starting to close. It is no surprise then that Buster Olney reports Arizona is willing to listen to trade offers for their best players, including Goldschmidt. We all love Luke Voit, he was awesome down the stretch, but Goldschmidt sure would look good at first base in pinstripes, wouldn’t he?

Anyway, the D’Backs have several players who could (should) be of interest to the Yankees this winter. These two teams have gotten together for five trades in the last four years (Brandon McCarthy, Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Drury) and I’m sure they could work another deal or two if properly motivated. Here are some D’Backs players potentially of interest.

SS Nick Ahmed

Why would the Yankees want him? Well, the Yankees need a shortstop now that Gregorius has had Tommy John surgery, and Ahmed is a standout gloveman. One of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He can’t hit much (.234/.290/.411 and 84 wRC+ in 2018) but he sure can pick it. Ahmed, 29 in March, has two seasons of control remaining and his arbitration salaries are relatively low (MLBTR projects $3.1M in 2019) because of the lack of offense. Keep in mind the Yankees reportedly had interest in Ahmed two years ago.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? He can’t hit, for starters, and similar all-glove/no-bat shortstops like Adeiny Hechavarria and Jose Iglesias will be available for nothing but cash as free agents. Perhaps you buy last year’s power breakout — Ahmed went from six homers and a 47.7% ground ball rate in 2017 to 16 and 40.8% in 2018, respectively — but there’s not much offensive potential here at all. If the Yankees don’t pursue Ahmed, it’ll likely be because a) they’re aiming higher, or b) they view the free agent shortstops as comparable.

RHP Archie Bradley

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees clearly valuable a deep bullpen and the 26-year-old Bradley had been among the best relievers in baseball the last two years, throwing 144.2 innings with a 2.68 ERA (3.15 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.3%) and walk (7.0%) rates. Bradley is under team control through 2021 (MLBTR projects $2.0M in 2019) and he’s obviously very good. He’d help any bullpen. (I’m curious to see whether some team tries to pick him up and gives him another chance to start.)

Why would the Yankees steer clear? No good reason, really. I suppose the jump in home run rate is a red flag — Bradley went from a 0.49 HR/9 (7.4 HR/FB%) last year to 1.13 HR/9 (13.8 HR/FB%) this year — and the cost might be prohibitive given how hard it can be to acquire quality relievers these days. Otherwise Bradley seems like exactly the kind of reliever the Yankees would be interested in adding. Young, cheap, strikeouts. He right up their alley.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Why would the Yankees want him? Goldschmidt is on the short list of the best players in baseball and I think he’s the best first baseman in the game overall. He started slowly this year and still finished at .290/.389/.533 (144 wRC+) with 35 doubles and 33 home runs. Goldschmidt doesn’t really steal bases anymore — he went 7-for-11 (64%) on the bases this season, two years after going 32-for-37 (86%) — but who cares when he hits like he does? Add in excellent defense and a cheap $14.5M salary for 2019, and adding this dude is a no-brainer.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? The only reason is cost. The D’Backs figure to have a high asking price (as they should) and the Yankees might not want to trade all those prospects for one season of Goldschmidt, even as good as he is. He turns 32 next year and I’m not sure signing him long-term would be the wise idea. Goldschmidt did set a new full season high strikeout rate this year (25.1%), though that’s not excessive or worrisome at this point. That’s an acceptable strikeout rate given what he does at the plate. Goldschmidt is one of the best players in the world and the only reason the Yankees might avoid him is cost. Arizona will probably ask for the moon.

RHP Zack Greinke

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees need starting pitchers, and, even with his 35th birthday coming up later this month, Greinke still threw 207.2 innings with a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with very good strikeout (23.1%) and walk (5.1%) rates this season. He got a good amount of ground balls (45.1%) as well. Greinke reminds me so much of Mike Mussina. He has a very deep arsenal (four-seamer, two-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup) and well as command and pitching know-how that borders on generational. Even the delivery and follow through remind me of Mussina. Greinke is durable (200 innings eight times in the last eleven years), he’s never had a serious arm injury, and his pitching style should allow him to age well, in theory.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Dig in and you can find a reason to steer clear of any player. Greinke’s average fastball velocity (90.0 mph) this past season was the lowest of his career and it’s been trending downward the last few years, which is completely normal at his age. That reduced fastball has led to more home runs (1.21 HR/9 and 15.0 HR/FB% the last three years), which is no fun. Also, Greinke is owed $104.5M the next three seasons. That’s a ton of money. Perhaps the D’Backs would eat money to facilitate a trade — would they turn him into a $20M a year pitcher? — but of course that means giving up better prospects. One thing to note: The Yankees have avoided Greinke whenever he’s become available in trades or free agency because they don’t think he’d mix well with New York.

OF David Peralta

Why would the Yankees want him? Peralta is a sneaky good fit for the Yankees. The former pitcher and independent leaguer hit .293/.352/.516 (130 wRC+) with 30 home runs and a more than acceptable 20.2% strikeout rate in 2018. He’s a left-handed hitter who knows how to pull the ball with authority, and the various defensive stats rate him as an average left fielder. Also, Peralta is under team control another two years (MLBTR projects $7.7M in 2019). The Yankees need a left fielder and they could use another lefty bat, especially following Didi’s injury. Peralta is both those things.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Peralta is going to need a platoon partner. This past season he hit .318/.377/.568 (150 wRC+) against righties and .237/.294/.399 (86 wRC+) against lefties, and his career split (131 wRC+ vs. 77 wRC+) is drastic as well. At age 31, chances are he’ll slow down a bit going forward and lose some value in the field as well. That’s really about it. As productive as Peralta has been the last few years, he does need a platoon partner and I’m not sure he’s actually an average defender in left field. There does appear to be a fit here, depending on the price.

LHP Robbie Ray

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees need starting pitching and the 27-year-old Ray has emerged as one of the best strikeout artists in the game the last few seasons. He posted a 3.93 ERA (4.31 FIP) with 31.4% strikeouts and 13.3% walks in 123.2 innings around an oblique strain in 2018. Over the last three seasons only Chris Sale (33.4%) and Max Scherzer (32.8%) have a higher strikeout rate than Ray (30.6%). He’s a southpaw with good velocity (94.1 mph in 2018), two secondary pitches he throws at least 20% of the time each (curveball, slider), and two years of team control remaining (MLBTR projects $6.1M in 2019). Aren’t the Yankees looking for someone pretty much exactly like this?

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Remember how I mentioned Ray has the third highest strikeout rate over the last three seasons? Well, he also has the fifth highest walk rate (10.8%) as well as a higher than you’d like home run rate (1.29 HR/9 and 16.1 HR/FB%). That’s in the non-DH league, remember. Walks and home runs tend to not mix well with Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general. Also, the Yankees are spin rate believers — their average 2,364 rpm four-seamer spin rate was second highest in baseball this season behind the Astros (2,366 rpm) — and Ray’s spin rates are not good. His fastball spin rate is almost exactly league average — you want either high spin (swings and misses) or low spin (grounders) on a fastball — and both the slider and curveball spin rates are below average, which is bad. Ray is intriguing, for sure, but he might not pass the analytics test.

* * *

As always, take this “they’re willing to listen to offers” report with a grain of salt, because every team is willing to listen at all times. The GM wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t listen. In Arizona’s case, their late season collapse and closing window suggests they will indeed consider trading away their top remaining players to kick start a rebuild. A rebuild feels imminent.

The D’Backs have several players who could interest the Yankees, most notably Goldschmidt and Peralta. Ahmed, Bradley, and Ray are possible targets as well. (Greinke strikes me as a long shot.) Those dudes are worth a deeper dive as we get into the offseason. Other possible targets include lefty Andrew Chafin, righty Zack Godley, righty Yoshihisa Hirano, and utility man Chris Owings. I suspect we’ll hear the Yankees and D’Backs connected in several trade rumors this winter.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks, David Peralta, Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke

Scouting the Trade Market: Arizona Diamondbacks

November 30, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Bradley. (Rich Gagnon/Getty)
Bradley. (Rich Gagnon/Getty)

After two pretty miserable years under Dave Stewart, the Diamondbacks cleaned out their front office at the end of the 2016 regular season and brought in longtime Red Sox executive Mike Hazen to run the show. Arizona went 69-93 this year, down from 79-83 in 2015 despite spending big to acquire Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller last offseason. Ouch.

The D-Backs are an interesting team because they do have some impressive talent. You can do a heck of a lot worse than building your lineup around Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, for example. The club also has some interesting young arms, and according to Ken Rosenthal, Hazen & Co. are expecting to field a lot of calls about those young pitchers this offseason.

The Yankees, like every other team, are perpetually in the market for rotation help. The younger the better. The three best starting pitchers in the organization at this very moment (Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda) can all become free agents after 2017. That’s sorta scary. Do any of Arizona’s young arms make sense for the Yankees? Let’s dive in.

RHP Archie Bradley

Background: Bradley, 24, was the seventh overall pick in the 2011 draft, and prior to the 2014 season, Baseball America ranked him as the ninth best prospect in baseball. The right-hander has struggled in his fairly limited MLB time, pitching to a 5.18 ERA (4.27 FIP) with 20.8% strikeouts, 11.1% walks, 47.8% grounders, and 0.96 HR/9 in 177.1 total innings. That includes a 5.02 ERA (4.10 FIP) with similar peripherals in 141.2 innings in 2016.

Scouting Report (via Brooks Baseball): “His fourseam fastball has essentially average velo. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ curves, has a sharp downward bite, is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change is slightly firmer than usual and results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups.”

Why Should The Yankees Want Him? Bradley is a pure power pitcher — his four-seamer averaged 93.4 mph and topped out at 97.0 mph in 2017 — and the Yankees love power pitchers. He can miss bats and get grounders, which is a darn good recipe for long-term success. Bradley have five years of team control remaining, though depending on the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, he could qualify as a Super Two if the cutoff drops a bit lower. Not a huge deal though.

Why Should The Yankees Stay Away? That 11.1% walk rate is no fluke. Bradley has a 12.3% walk rate in over 440 minor league innings, so throwing strikes is an issue. The kid averaged over 18 pitches per inning in 2016. That’s crazy high. Bradley’s changeup isn’t very effective either, which is why left-handed batters hit .315/.412/.523 (!) against him this year. Yikes. Also, he missed close to three months with shoulder tendinitis in 2015, but was fine in 2016. Strikeouts and grounders solve a lot of problems and Bradley can get them. The walks and inability to neutralize lefties are an ongoing concern though.

LHP Patrick Corbin

Background: The 27-year-old Corbin, a semi-local kid from up near Syracuse, was an All-Star with the D’Backs back in 2013 before blowing out his elbow in Spring Training 2014 and needing Tommy John surgery. His performance after returning last season was promising (3.60 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 85 innings), but the wheels came off this year, so much so that Arizona had to move him to the bullpen. Corbin had a 5.15 ERA (4.84 FIP) with 18.7% strikeouts, 9.4% walks, and 53.8% grounders in 155.2 innings covering 24 starts and 12 relief appearances in 2016.

Scouting Report (via Brooks): “His fourseam fastball generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has some natural sinking action and has slightly above average velo. His slider generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sliders, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders and has some two-plane movement. His sinker generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slightly above average velo. His change is much firmer than usual.”

Why Should The Yankees Want Him? The Yankees love buy low opportunities and Corbin is exactly that. He was a deserving All-Star three years ago and it’s worth noting his stuff has bounced back well following surgery. Corbin’s velocity has held steady and he’s getting similar movement on his secondary pitches. A true four-pitch lefty with a history of missing bats and getting grounders is a mighty fine rotation piece. There’s a chance Corbin’s numbers will bounce back simply by getting away from Arizona’s league worst defense too.

Why Should The Yankees Stay Away? The Tommy John surgery is not nothing. Corbin had a major arm procedure two and a half years ago, and while he’s been healthy since, it is a red flag. Also, we can’t ignore the dreadful statistical performance too. The shoddy team defense didn’t cause his 1.39 HR/9 this year, for example. Corbin was an All-Star three years ago. Now he’s not close to that level. Is he fixable? Considering he’s only two years away from free agency, the Yankees might not have enough time to find out and reap the reward.

RHP Shelby Miller

Background: Gosh, Miller has been through an awful lot in his career so far. The 26-year-old was a top 2009 draft prospect who slipped to the 19th overall pick due to bonus demands, then went on to be ranked as a top 13 global prospect by Baseball America in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Miller’s rookie season in 2013 was good enough (3.06 ERA and 3.67 FIP) to earn a third place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. His sophomore season was bad enough (3.74 ERA and 4.54 FIP) that the Cardinals soured on him and traded him for one year of Jason Heyward.

Miller was an All-Star with the Braves in 2015 (3.02 ERA and 3.45 FIP) before being traded to the D’Backs in that insane deal last offseason. He had a 6.15 ERA (4.87 FIP) in 101 total innings this season. His strikeout (15.2%), walk (9.1%), grounder (41.9%), and homer (1.25 HR/9) rates were all … not good. It’s hard to imagine a pitcher this young and this talented going from All-Star one year to arguably the worst pitcher in baseball the next without a major arm injury, but Miller managed to pull it off.

Scouting Report (via Brooks): “His fourseam fastball has essentially average velo. His cutter results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ cutters and has some natural sink. His curve generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ curves. His change generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ changeups and is much firmer than usual. His sinker results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slightly above average velo.”

Why Should The Yankees Want Him? Is there a bigger buy low candidate in baseball right now? Unless he hid an injury all season, Miller’s issues were all mechanical in 2016. And probably mental too. It’s hard to think his confidence didn’t take a hit while getting blasted every fifth day. Miller got into this weird mechanical funk in which he dropped so low in his delivery he would hit his hand on the mound during his follow through …

Shelby Miller

… which briefly sent him to the disabled list with a sprained finger. Miller legitimately throws five pitches, and at his best, he’s a weak contact guy who gets a lot of soft ground balls and lazy pop-ups. Fix the mechanics and rebuild his confidence — not easy to do in the offense happy AL East and Yankee Stadium — and you could have yourself a pretty good pitcher. As an added bonus, the D’Backs sent Miller to the minors juuust long enough this season to delay his free agency, so he comes with three years of control.

Why Should The Yankees Stay Away? Obvious, right? Miller might not be fixable. His mechanics could be beyond repair and his confidence could be completely destroyed. I am no pitching coach, but what Shelby went through this season doesn’t strike me as a quick or easy fix. He’s a reclamation project now. No doubt about it. I’d dub this an “extremely high risk, kinda high reward” play.

LHP Robbie Ray

Background: Ray, 25, was a 12th round pick who developed into a solid pitching prospect. The Nationals traded him to the Tigers in the Doug Fister deal three years ago, then the Tigers traded him to Arizona as part of the three-team deal that brought Didi Gregorius to New York two years ago. In 2016, Ray had a 4.90 ERA (3.76 FIP) despite striking out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. His 28.1% strikeout rate is the 20th highest by a qualified left-handed starter in a single-season in MLB history. (Ten of the 19 ahead of him belong to Randy Johnson.) Sam Miller wrote about Ray’s statistically odd season (ton of strikeouts, ton of runs) not too long ago, and I recommend checking that out.

Scouting Report (via Brooks): “His fourseam fastball generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, is blazing fast, results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has slight armside run and has some added backspin. His sinker is blazing fast, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has little sinking action compared to a true sinker and has slight armside run. His slider has primarily 12-6 movement, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sliders, is much harder than usual, has less than expected depth and results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders. His change is thrown extremely hard and is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups.”

Why Should The Yankees Want Him? The appeal of an extremely hard-throwing lefty — Ray averaged 95.3 mph with his four-seamer and 94.5 mph with his sinker in 2016 — who can miss this many bats is pretty obvious, I’d say. Add in the fact he has quality secondary pitches in his slider and changeup and you’ve got a nice little rotation piece. Ray is four years away from free agency as well, so he’s a long-term buy. A southpaw who can miss bats is a welcome addition to a team that calls Yankee Stadium home.

Why Should The Yankees Stay Away? There is more to life than throwing hard and striking out batters, as several members of the Yankees’ pitching staff have taught us (coughMichaelPinedacough). Ray’s walk (9.2%), grounder (45.2%), and homer (1.24 HR/9) rates left something to be desired this year, plus righties hit him pretty hard (.269/.350/.447). Ray fits the mold of a “great stuff, dubious command” pitcher, and the Yankees haven’t had a whole lot of success helping those guys figure out the command part.

RHP Taijuan Walker

Background: Walker, 24, still has some prospect shine remaining after be named a top 20 global prospect by Baseball America in 2012, 2013, and 2014. His MLB performance to date has been just okay overall (4.18 ERA and 4.30 FIP), and this past season he had a 4.22 ERA (4.99 FIP) with 20.8% strikeouts, 6.5% walks, 44.1% grounders, and 1.81 HR/9 in 134.1 innings. It seems the Mariners got sick of waiting for Walker to take the next step, so they sent him to Arizona in the Jean Segura deal last week.

Scouting Report (via Brooks): “His fourseam fastball has slightly above average velo and has some added backspin. His splitter is thrown extremely hard, results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ splitters, has movement that suggests a lot of backspin and has slight armside fade. His curve generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ curves, has a sharp downward bite and results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ curves. His cutter results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ cutters.”

Why Should The Yankees Want Him? Walker just turned 24 and it wasn’t that long ago that he was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, so there’s definitely still a chance things will click and he’ll reach his admittedly high ceiling. His value is down right now — example: he was just traded for Jean freaking Segura, who is only two years from free agency and has been terrible two of the last three years — so this is a chance to get a talented pitcher on the cheap. Walker misses bats and he uses three pitches regularly — the cutter is basically a show-me pitch — so the tools to remain in the rotation are there. He comes with four years of team control, all arbitration-eligible as a Super Two.

Why Should The Yankees Stay Away? Two or three years ago Walker made a mechanical change and he hasn’t been the same guy since. I don’t know if he did it on his own or if the Mariners talked him into it, but he shortened his stride and finishes more upright now, which has taken some of the bite off his curveball and hinders his command. Walker has had some on-and-off shoulder injuries since the mechanical change as well — he’s actually coming off foot surgery at the moment, though that’s an unrelated injury — so that’s no good. This stride shortening thing isn’t necessarily a fatal flaw — Aaron Sanchez had the same issue, for example, and he got back on track last year — but it is something that needs fixing. Right now, Walker is a different pitcher than the guy who was atop all those prospect lists back in the day.

* * *

I really have no idea what to think about these young D’Backs pitchers. They all have talent, that much is obvious, and all but Corbin come with at least three years of control. These are, in theory, exactly the type of pitchers the Yankees are looking to acquire. At the same time, every single one is coming off a below-average season, even Ray with all his strikeouts. They all need to be fixed or helped in some way. They’re projects.

As always, it’s going to come down to the price. There’s always a point where it makes sense to roll the dice on a young project pitcher. Hazen has been at the helm for only a few weeks now, so he has no real attachment to these guys. Well, except maybe Walker because he traded for him, but otherwise these are not kids he drafted and developed. That connection is not there and it could make him more willing to trade them. We see that sort of thing all the time when a new GM takes over.

This free agent pitching class is so incredibly crummy that competition on the trade market figures to be fierce, so much so that even “broken” pitchers like Corbin and Miller will generate a ton of attention. The Yankees have plenty of prospects to trade. Finding a match won’t be hard. The real question is how much are they willing to give up, and how confident are they in their ability to fix one of these guys?

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks, Patrick Corbin, Robbie Ray, Scouting The Market, Shelby Miller, Taijuan Walker

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