At this time last year Alex Rodriguez was a complete unknown. Not only was he coming off his Biogenesis suspension in 2014, hip surgery limited him to only 44 games in 2013 as well. A-Rod was approaching 40 and had barely played the previous two seasons for several not good reasons. Could he still hit? Could he play defense? Did the Yankees even want him around?
It was easy to think the answers would be no, no, and no. And if that was the case, what would the Yankees do with Rodriguez? Bench him? Release him? Try to trade him? It was hard to imagine a trade being even remotely possible, and releasing him meant eating north of $60M in salary. Benching him meant playing with a 24-man roster. The A-Rod situation was shaping up to be pretty ugly.
And now, coming into Spring Training, Rodriguez is viewed as a key cog in the machine that is the 2016 Yankees. A-Rod is expected to hit in the middle of the order, and the Yankees value his leadership so much that they invited him to speak at Captain’s Camp because they want him working with their young prospects. Heck, prior to the trade deadline last year, Brian Cashman admitted to getting Alex’s input on needs and possible deals.
It has been quite a turnaround for Rodriguez over the last 12 months. He went from unknown and unwanted — at the very least, a large subset of Yankees fans didn’t want him — to an offensive linchpin and a key member of the clubhouse. Newcomers Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi both credited A-Rod for helping them make adjustments during their first season in New York. The Summer of Al was an overwhelming positive in 2015.
Now comes the hard part: doing it again. Rodriguez had the benefit of zero expectations last summer. Almost everyone expected him to stink, and if he was going to contribute to the team, he would have to earn it. A-Rod batted seventh on Opening Day, remember. Now there are expectations. A-Rod is the club’s best right-handed hitter and is no longer in a “whatever he gives us is a bonus” situation. He’s important.
The reality of Alex’s situation is that he is a 40-year-old ballplayer, that he no longer can play defense (the Yankees aren’t even going to try him at first or third base this spring), and that he has two surgically repaired hips. Great players do age differently than everyone else, but the history of 40-year-old hitters is not particularly strong. Seven players have qualified for the batting title in their age 40 season this century:
2014 Derek Jeter: 76 OPS+
2007 Kenny Lofton: 105 OPS+
2007 Omar Vizquel: 61 OPS+
2006 Jeff Conine: 86 OPS+
2006 Craig Biggio: 84 OPS+
2003 Edgar Martinez: 141 OPS+
2001 Cal Ripken Jr.: 70 OPS+
The most similar player to A-Rod in that group is Edgar, who mashed during his age 40 season, but that doesn’t mean Rodriguez is in the clear. That list is intended to show just how to tough it is to be productive on an everyday basis at age 40. All of those guys except Conine were everyday big leaguers at a young age. The game takes a toll physically. A-Rod was in the show at 18 and a regular at 20.
Based on everything they’ve been saying over the last few weeks and months, the Yankees believe the key to keeping A-Rod productive this year is eliminating the every day aspect. They want to turn him into a most days player, not an everyday player, which he was last year. That means more time on the bench, freeing up the DH spot for Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira and whoever else.
“We were trying and running him out to the field last year, and there were things that we were doing — I think he got a little bit sore at times just like any normal infielder would,” said Girardi to reporters last week. “He doesn’t have to deal with that this year … I think he has a better understanding of what it took and what it takes and what he needs to be able to do … He’s ready to go. He looks healthy. He’s strong.”
Because he is a DH and a DH only, A-Rod’s value stems entirely from his offense, which is a bit risky at his age. If he doesn’t hit, he has zero on-field value to the team. None. He’d be dead roster weight. The Yankees can’t do anything about Alex’s age. The only thing they can do is try to keep him as fresh and as healthy as possible, and hope for the best. I’m not big on projections, so I’m only listing these as a conversation starter:
ZiPS: .237/.331/.449 with 23 homers
Steamer: .239/.333/.410 with 19 homers
PECOTA: .244/.334/.418 with 22 homers
Last season Rodriguez hit .250/.356/.486 (131 OPS+) with 33 homers — by OPS+, that is the tenth best season by a player who qualified for the batting title in his age 39 season — and the projections are understandably expecting his power to take a hit this coming season. The on-base ability is fine relative to the batting average. Still lots of walks, which has been an A-Rod forte for years. Would a .240/.330/.420 season be a success? All things considered, I’d have to say yes, even if we’re used to much more from Alex.
As good as he was overall last season, Rodriguez was far more successful against lefties (148 wRC+) than righties (120 wRC+), and I bet Girardi and the Yankees will time his off-days so that he sits against northpaws. That figures to mean extra at-bats for Dustin Ackley and Aaron Hicks. The extra rest coupled with less playing time against right-handers could help Rodriguez remain productive and beat his projections (again). That’s the plan, I assume.
I love A-Rod — seriously, how sad will it be once he’s gone? — yet even I was an A-Rod doubter last season. Could you blame me? I’m happy he proved me and lots of others wrong. I’m not betting against him this year but I’m also not oblivious to the risks associated with a 40-year-old player on two surgically repaired hips. A-Rod is risky. And while last season showed he can still be a force, he’s reached the point of his career where he’ll have to prove himself again each and every year.
“This is a result-oriented business, so the team needs me to produce,” said A-Rod to reporters last week. “I never look at the season and think about numbers. I think about how can I help the team win and be available both on the field and in the clubhouse to give positive contributions, especially with our youngsters … At age 40 with two hip surgeries, I’m day-to-day. I plan to prepare hard and play as long as my body lets me.”
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