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River Ave. Blues » Archives for Derek Albin » Page 2

The Yankees need to make a decision on Gio Gonzalez soon

April 10, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

Ten days remain until Gio Gonzalez can opt out of his contract with the Yankees. The veteran lefty was brought in as rotation insurance last month just in case things went awry for the recovering CC Sabathia and Luis Severino. Gonzalez wasn’t necessarily in the Yankees plans, hence the minor league deal he signed with the April 20th exit date. Oh, how things have changed.

Initially, both Severino and Sabathia were expected to return by the end of April. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga were only going to be stopgaps for a few weeks. Unless the team was going to run with a six-man rotation at full strength, there was no place for Gonzalez. Now, Severino won’t return until this summer. The good news is that Sabathia will be back this weekend, but without its ace, the Yankees will tap into the reserves longer than anticipated. How they choose to do that remains to be seen, but we’ll know for sure whether it’s Gonzalez or not by next weekend.

It would be a tough break for German to lose his rotation spot if he continues to pitch well over the next week or so. Granted, his first two starts were against Detroit and Baltimore, but it’s fun to watch his power fastball and sharp curve. Nonetheless, the Yankees have some flexibility with German. He still has a minor league option, so he could remain extended as a starter in Triple-A. Or, he could transition to the bullpen where his stuff should play. Speaking of his arsenal, it’s certainly superior to what Gonzalez offers now. Yet, German is still a bit of an unknown. He’s a much more volatile option because he tends to not pitch past the fourth or fifth inning.

Gonzalez would be a safe choice for the fifth starter role going forward. His stuff is not what it once was, but he’s still an innings eater. Unlike German, I feel pretty confident in Gonzalez pitching into the fifth or sixth every turn. One issue, if it even is a true problem, is that Gonzalez has no use as a reliever. So, if the Yankees really wanted to keep German in the rotation, it wouldn’t make much sense to stash Gonzalez in the bullpen. That would mean cutting him loose and thereby weakening the team’s pitching depth.

After a crummy spring training and first outing in Scranton, Gonzalez finally put together a brilliant outing yesterday. Perhaps the late start to camp is the excuse for the initial poor performance, but Gonzalez wasn’t doing himself any favors by pitching poorly. He could get two more starts in Scranton before his opt out. How he pitches in those outings might not matter. Voluntarily losing depth in a young season when the team is dropping like flies doesn’t seem like a wise idea.

An external acquisition, namely Dallas Keuchel, is the most plausible reason the team to send Gonzalez packing. There haven’t been any rumblings about such a move just yet. But as Mike wrote this morning, the Yankees probably will exhaust their internal options before turning outside the organization.

As Gonzalez’s decision day nears, there’s an old adage to keep in mind: a team can never have enough starting pitching. Chances are that the rotation will suffer at least another injury or two over the course of the season. Had Severino’s prognosis not been so daunting, the risk of rolling the dice with German wouldn’t have been a terrible decision. Now, it’s hard to imagine the team letting go of a solid big league option in Gonzalez.

Filed Under: Pitching Tagged With: Gio Gonzalez

What do the Yankees have in Mike Tauchman?

April 9, 2019 by Derek Albin


Who? That was my reaction when the Yankees acquired Mike Tauchman in an eleventh hour deal before the regular season began. I’m sure I wasn’t alone. The trade was a result of need with Aaron Hicks’s recovery dragging out. Tauchman snagged the team’s final roster spot, much to Tyler Wade’s chagrin. As a 28 year-old yet to shed the Quad-A star reputation, the deal was a tad surprising. Tyler Wade had all but made the roster, and if the Yankees wanted to go off the 40-man for a true outfielder, they could have gone with non-roster invitee Billy Burns. Instead, they turned to the Rockies in order to get Tauchman.

Tauchman has “Voit-like” qualities. In other words, the Yankees think the outfielder could be a diamond in the rough, just like Luke Voit was last summer. As a left-handed hitter with modest power numbers in the minors, it’s not difficult to envision why the Yankees might like Tauchman.

The former tenth rounder has spent three full seasons with Albuquerque, Colorado’s Tripe-A affiliate. That team is part of the batter-tilted Pacific Coast League. Nonetheless, Tauchman’s statistics are impressive even with the PCL boost. In 1,473 plate appearances, he recorded a 126 wRC+. The combination of contact, discipline, and decent power propelled Tauchman to that comfortably above average all-in number. Still, he couldn’t replicate that performance in his stints with the Rockies. The outfielder got to hit 69 times for the Rockies over the past two seasons and posted a paltry 17 wRC+. Obviously, small sample size and all, the Yankees aren’t writing him off based on his performance in Colorado.

In an era dominated by strikeouts, and with a lineup already featuring a few strikeout prone batters, Tauchman’s bat to ball skill was undoubtedly part of the Yankees’ attraction. His 14.9 percent punchout rate in Triple-A is remarkably low. Further, it’s not like Tauchman makes a bunch of contact by avoiding deep counts. His walk rates have gradually improved in Triple-A, reaching as high as 12.7 percent last season. He sounds a bit like Aaron Hicks, strictly in terms of plate discipline: high contact with patience. Unfortunately, that skillset hasn’t translated to the majors yet. He’s fanned 36.6 percent of the time in limited opportunities.

Decent power is another one of Tauchman’s positives, and it’s fairly new to his game. Prior to 2017, Tauchman had almost no pop. He hit only one home run in 527 plate appearances in his first season at the minors’ highest level. Then, in 2017, that jumped to 16 in 475 (and a .224 ISO). In 2018, he hit 20 in 471 (.248 ISO). Where’d the power come from? He credited Glenallen Hill, his Triple-A manager and former Yankee (great excuse to relive this).

Even though Tauchman has developed some power, there’s still one thing hindering his ability to tap further into his six-foot-two, two hundred pound frame: his propensity to hit grounders. He’s started to minimize that weakness over the last few years, but could still do better. In 2016, 57.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. The next season, he dropped that mark to 46.7 percent. It fell a bit further to 43.5% last year. In limited time in the majors, he’s really struggled to lift the ball: 28 of 41 balls in play have been hit into the ground.

With few balls in play, there’s not much to glean from Statcast. To no surprise, he has a very low launch angle, which is why he hits the ball into the ground so frequently. I don’t think there’s anything to read into in terms of exit velocity (from what’s publicly available). I’d bet that his minor league Trackman numbers indicate good contact quality, though. And that’s where we can induce why the Yankees view him as potentially the next Voit.

We’ve heard about the launch angle revolution ad nauseam. Teams are hoping to dig up guys who with a swing change can unlock better offensive performance, and this is yet another case of it. Tauchman has already made improvements with Colorado over the past couple years, as evidenced by additional power and lower ground ball rates. Perhaps the Yankees feel that he can take the next step in the Bronx, especially with Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton out.

All told, Tauchman fits the mold of the type of player the Yankees have sought out in recent seasons. The aforementioned Hicks and Voit are other recent examples. Chances are that Tauchman won’t blossom into a significant contributor, but at the same time, the Yankees aren’t counting on him for much more than depth. The easy call would have been to bring Billy Burns north, but instead, the team took a more thoughtful approach. If Tauchman thrives and forces his way into regular playing time, great. Otherwise, it’s not a big deal. The team has enough outfield depth (when healthy) to stash Tauchman in the minors.

Like many others, I’ve been highly critical of the Yankees roster construction this offseason. Putting the past aside, Tauchman is an intriguing acquisition. At worst, he’s a decent up-and-down outfielder when needed this year. Once Stanton and Hicks return, Tauchman won’t be needed in the Bronx (barring future injury). At the same time, he appears to have some untapped potential that the Yankees have been good at snuffing out.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Mike Tauchman

Repeating past mistakes have come back to haunt the Yankees

April 5, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

It took six games for Troy Tulowitzki to wind up on the injured list. Banking on him to be the stopgap shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery was a high risk decision from the get go, and it’s already come back to bite the Yankees. I feel bad for Tulowitzki; his return could have been a feel-good story this season (and maybe still could). For a team in contention, it was never a good idea to count a player absent from the majors since 2017. It doesn’t matter how he looked in his offseason workouts.

Gambling on Tulowitzki was a move straight out of the 2013 and 2014 playbook. Those were highly forgettable Yankees teams that somehow finished above .500 while missing the playoffs. The likes of Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Brian Roberts, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki were counted on as regulars. All of those players were either past their primes, injury prone, or both. Tulowitzki fits that mold.

Some of the aforementioned players actually got off to good starts in pinstripes. I recall Hafner and Wells raking early on. Pronk had a 198 wRC+ in the first month of 2013. Wells posted a 150 wRC+ during the same period. Things went (steeply) downhill from there. Others like Youkilis and Roberts never contributed much at all, and didn’t even last on the roster all season. Ichiro hit well when he was acquired in 2012, but was surprisingly signed a two-year deal thereafter.

Tulowitzki never really got a chance to show any semblance of his old self. Maybe he’ll be back much sooner than we anticipate, but it’s easy to be skeptical of his belief that it’s a relatively minor calf injury. At this point, as Mike noted, the Yankees have exhausted just about all of their depth, so they actually need him back. And that gets us back to the point: it’s a problem that the Yankees relied on Tulowitzki to be their starting shortstop.

DJ LeMahieu was ostensibly the contingency plan for Tulowitzki. It’s not that he’s a bad fallback, but rather, the issue is that it forces Gleyber Torres to spend less time learning a fairly new position, second base. Torres is capable of playing short, but if the Yankees have any intention of retaining Didi Gregorius, it would make sense to give Torres as many reps at the keystone as possible. That means having a more tenable shortstop during Gregorius’s absence would have been ideal.

This injury serves as yet another reminder that the Yankees passed on Manny Machado this past winter. I know, I know, you’re all tired of hearing about that. I’d rather not discuss it either. But what choice do we have? Sure, Machado could have become another one of the team’s walking wounded. However, that would have came as a surprise, unlike Tulowitzki.

It’s a rare opportunity to acquire a young superstar in the prime of their career for only money. The team could regret the decision for years to come. You think they regret letting Robinson Cano walk in favor of Brian Roberts? There were some dark years before the team finally found Starlin Castro and ultimately Gleyber. And sure, you can say that the Yankees had better internal options now as compared to Cano’s walk year, with Andujar and Gregorius on the left side of the infield. But who knows how Gregorius, and now Andujar, return from their injuries. It’s better to acquire as much high floor talent as possible and sort things out later if everyone is healthy at the same time. Instead, the Yankees went for the cheap low floor option with a low probability of significant contribution.

Filed Under: Musings Tagged With: Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Manny Machado, Troy Tulowitzki

Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

March 27, 2019 by Derek Albin

Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

Filed Under: Analysis, Spring Training Tagged With: Brett Gardner, JA Happ, Luis Cessa, Tyler Wade

At the risk of looking foolish, some optimistic spring training performance takeaways

March 26, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

Spring training is in the books and opening day is just days away. The slate has been wiped clean and all camp performances, good or bad, get a reset. By now, we all know better than to make strong declarations based on Grapefruit League statistics. It sure is fun to do, though. And hey, what’s my risk of interpreting how certain players performed? I can live with looking silly.

A handful of Yankees had intriguing numbers over the last month or so. We won’t know how significant those until later in the regular season, but I think we can make meaningful observations from some of the results.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will strike out less

Both Judge and Stanton struck out about 30 percent of the time last season. If Grapefruit League play is any indicator, the duo will put the ball in play more often this year. Stanton fanned in 22.9 percent of plate appearances while Judge went down on strikes 26.7 percent of the time. Of course, neither accrued more than 48 plate appearances, so make of it what you will.

Despite the small sample, we do know that Judge has been trying to cut down on whiffs in camp. With two strikes, he’s eschewed his leg kick for a subtle toe tap. It’s seemingly worked out well thus far. Why can’t it continue to work in the regular season?

As for Stanton, there isn’t a discernible adjustment. At least, not one that I’m aware of. Nonetheless, he is just a season removed from the 23.6 percent rate he posted in his final season with Miami. Last year could have been a blip. As his spring training performance shows, this is who he is at his best.

Clint Frazier has some rust to shake off

This statement isn’t out on a limb, unlike the strikeout talk from the prior section. Frazier hit .149/.228/.245 in 57 plate appearances. He had the most opportunities out of anyone in camp, and understandably so. With much of last season lost due concussion recovery, it’s been a long time since Clint has been at full strength. Now that he’s finally cleared, there are some cobwebs for him to shake off.

It’s tough luck that Frazier still needs more time to get on track. Obviously, his health problems were the biggest misfortune of all. Pretty scary, in particular. But also, he’s missing an opportunity to grab a job from the outset of the season because Aaron Hicks is down for the count. He should still get an opportunity later this year, but he’ll have to wait.

Greg Bird is (finally) healthy

Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me…thrice? To be honest, I’m not sure how many times I have gotten excited about Bird at this point, only to be inevitably let down. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to read into his spring training numbers and not think he’s healthy. The Yankees gave him 54 trips to the plate in camp and he capitalized with a 1.091 OPS. Can’t I get a little excited?

Oh, but that elbow of his. He was hit there by a pitch last week. Here we go again, right? Well, it seems like he’s going to be fine, for now. I get the skepticism with Bird, but I’m ready to dive back in and believe. I think it’s easier this time because he’s the underdog to Luke Voit, and if Bird does indeed flame out again, the Yankees should be fine at the position anyway.

Tommy Kahnle is back

It’s always good to draw conclusions from seven and a third innings pitched. In that workload, Kahnle struck out nine and allowed only one earned run. His velocity appears to be back and not only is he healthy, but he’s also in far better shape than before. The way he took care of his body before this season was…something.

It’s going to be a huge plus to have a revitalized Kahnle with Dellin Betances on the shelf to start the year. It looks Kahnle’s 2017-self, minus all of the caffeine and junk food, is back and here to stay.

Stephen Tarpley is for real

The 26-year-old southpaw was named the team’s best rookie in camp, and deservedly so. He allowed no runs, one walk, and six hits in just over 11 innings of work this spring (before last night), which earned him a spot on the opening day roster. Tarpley already began to emerge as an intriguing relief prospect last season and did a nice job in a late summer cameo with the Bombers.

Tarpley is in line to be this year’s Jonathan Holder. He may ride the Scranton shuttle a couple of times early on, but more likely than not, he’s ready to carve out a role in the big leagues for good. His spring training was just a confirmation of his capabilities.

Filed Under: Analysis, Spring Training Tagged With: Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird, Stephen Tarpley, Tommy Kahnle

The short but necessary bench [2019 Season Preview]

March 22, 2019 by Derek Albin

Romine. (Presswire)

In today’s day and age, the bench on an American League team just isn’t very important. What traditionally hindered bench usefulness in the junior circuit was the advent of the designated hitter, but the more recent emphasis on the bullpen has become a factor too. Over the last decade or so, we’ve gone from teams typically fielding eleven pitchers to now including up to a baker’s dozen. It’s pretty clear the Yankees will carry thirteen pitchers, meaning that there are only three bench jobs to go around. One obviously needs to go to a reserve catcher, while the other two spots are a tad more flexible.

The venerable backup catcher

It seems like people either love or loathe Austin Romine. Many of those in the former category prefer him to Gary Sanchez because they’re irrational. Those who don’t like Romine have been hoping for a different backup for years, even though he’s perfectly fine in his role. Sure, it would be nice to have a better hitter behind Sanchez, but that would be a luxury, not a necessity.

Romine had his best offensive season last year, setting career highs across the board. His first half was particularly strong (122 wRC+), but he reverted back to his usual self to finish the year. It would be dandy if he’s anything remotely near his first half performance this year. That said, his historical performance would also be tolerable. It only becomes untenable if Sanchez needs to miss significant time.

The 30 year-old backstop shines in areas that casual observers can’t easily glean. Advanced metrics peg him as an above average defender, which also includes solid pitch framing. It seems like he has a good rapport with the coaching staff and pitchers, too. Those things are valuable even if they’re not as easy to read as a batter’s triple-slash. Hence the Yankees sticking with him as a reserve the past few years.

Understandably, the projections are underwhelming. PECOTA (83 DRC+), ZiPS (77 wRC+), and Steamer (76 wRC+) all foresee a poor offensive output. But if you keep in mind that the typical catcher posted a 84 wRC+ last season, it’s really not so bad. Once you layer on Romine’s value as a receiver and his bond with the pitchers, it’s clear that he makes for a respectable backup.

The hopeful super-utility player

2019 will be Tyler Wade’s second chance to secure a roster spot in the big leagues. After making the opening day roster last season, he faltered. His -25 wRC+ last April got him demoted to Triple-A for most of the season, before returning for a July cameo and September call ups. Wade still has options, so this year isn’t necessarily a make or break season, but there’s going to be some pressure on him to show he can at least be a tolerable bat in the majors.

It’s one thing to be speedy and have a solid glove, which are Wade’s calling cards. But no matter how good anyone is with those skills, they won’t be rostered for long if they post a .161/.218/.250 batting line (those are Wade’s career marks). The challenge for Wade will be making the most of sporadic plate appearances. With guys like DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having versatility in the infield, Wade probably won’t get too many starts. Wade has been working out in the outfield for a couple of years now, including some time in center this spring because of Aaron Hicks’s injury, but again, he’s low on the depth chart to play frequently out there.

Perhaps Wade starts once a week, but most of his time will come as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Thanks to his versatility, Aaron Boone can be pretty aggressive with Wade in high leverage situations. He could pinch run for just about anyone and have a spot in the field in the next half inning. Or, he could substitute defensively for either Miguel Andujar or Luke Voit/Greg Bird late in games. That would allow LeMahieu to take the corner infield spot while Wade slides to second.

Wade. (Presswire)

This spring, Wade has a .907 OPS in Grapefruit League play. Not that spring training stats are meaningful or predictive, but I’d rather see that than a lackluster March performance. There’s no way he’ll hit that well in the regular season, but if he can be Romine-like (think 75 – 80 wRC+), he’d be just fine. He may not get more than 150 plate appearances all season, which is difficult for someone who’s used to playing daily in the minors. It’s a learning experience to become a solid role player, but that’s what Wade will have to prove. Fortunately for him, the team’s offense is so good that his bat won’t necessarily be needed. He just can’t be equivalent to a pitcher at the dish.

The likely to change 25th man

Injuries have clouded who will take the final bench spot. It could be Greg Bird, though we already previewed him. Maybe it’ll be Jacoby Ellsbury, but certainly not immediately. Maybe a non-roster invitee will sneak on to start the year. What we do know for sure is that it’ll be a fluid situation depending on who’s healthy. Clint Frazier, who we’ve yet to preview, will probably spend some time filling in on the bench, especially if Hicks’s back woes linger or Brett Gardner struggles.

Frazier is probably bound for Scranton once spring training ends. He’s had a rough go of it in game action this month, but that’s not surprising for someone who missed significant time last season. Some time in the minors will allow him to get back up to speed. The most important thing is that he’s free and clear of the concussion problems that plagued him last season. As he shakes the rust off, 2019 will be a chance for him to carve out a role with the Yankees.

If the 24 year-old outfielder hits anything like he did in limited time with Scranton last year (170 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances), the Yankees won’t be able to keep him down for long. There’s a balance that the club must strike when they decide promote him. Riding the pine in the majors would be wasteful. However, he can’t just usurp playing time without an opening.

Most projections have Frazier as a slightly above average big league hitter already (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer), though the one pessimistic outlier is PECOTA (89 DRC+). I’m on the optimistic side, personally. I expect Frazier to carve out some sort of hybrid bench/starter role by the season’s end.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview, Austin Romine, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade

Barring another injury, Jacoby Ellsbury will force the Yankees’ hand soon

March 20, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

At some point in the next month or two, the Yankees will have to make a decision on the future of Jacoby Ellsbury. His extended absence came to an end when he reported to Tampa last weekend. Although he won’t be ready for opening day, it seems like his saga is nearing an inflection point. A setback wouldn’t surprise anyone, but it’s now a real possibility that he’s healthy and ready to play relatively soon.

Of course, Ellsbury has plenty of work to do to complete his comeback. He’s just getting back to baseball activities after a long layoff, so there’s rust to shake off. He’ll also need to have his own version of spring training, meaning that he’ll probably stick around in extended camp into April. From there, he’ll likely do a full minor league rehab stint before being ready to return to the majors. That gives the team until some time in May assuming all goes well.

As long as Ellsbury stays on track, he will have all of the leverage once ready to join the big league team. He’s still owed approximately $47 million through next season, he can’t be sent to the minors, and has a no trade clause. The Yankees can’t just let him toil on the injured list, either. Sorry, a phantom injury isn’t an option. The center fielder hasn’t worked this hard to return from major surgery merely to twiddle his thumbs at home.

Oddly enough, the Yankees could actually use someone like Ellsbury if Aaron Hicks’s back woes linger. But when the team’s outfield is at full strength, Ellsbury as the fifth outfielder is a wasted roster spot. That puts the Yankees in a very tricky situation. In such a role, he’d ride the bench most of the season. I’m sure Ellsbury has too much pride to want to do something like that, and I’m sure the Yankees would much rather have a more traditional bench player. With a roster at full strength, keeping Ellsbury around would likely force Tyler Wade back to the minors.

Ellsbury almost certainly has little to no value to any of the other 29 teams in baseball. If Adam Jones got only $3 million from Arizona, what team would be take on even a portion of Ellsbury’s deal? The only way a trade could be accomplished is in a swap of bad contracts. Even then, though, there would be a significant hurdle with Ellsbury’s no trade clause. Maybe he’d accept a deal to a team out west, where he’s from and currently resides. But he doesn’t have to. If another club really wants him, they can just wait until the Yankees have no choice but to cut Ellsbury.

This all leads down one path: releasing him. It’s the best option for all parties involved. There’s no need to be stubborn by keeping him on the bench. He deserves a chance to play somewhere else if the Yankees don’t want him. I don’t think it makes much sense to obtain another hefty contract in exchange for Ellsbury, especially if it’s going to be a stretch to roster said acquisition.

The Yankees have undoubtedly been happy to claw back some of Ellsbury’s contract via insurance, but that gravy train appears to be ending. Sure, Ellsbury could have some sort of setback, but the team can’t count on it. If and when he’s ready to go, whether that be some time in late April or later this season, it’ll be time to cut him loose. There’s no need to try to make this marriage work.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Jacoby Ellsbury

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