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Devil’s Advocate: The Yankees were smart to pass on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper

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(Presswire)

Let me preface this by saying I think the Yankees made a mistake not signing Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Star-caliber players in their mid-20s are among the most valuable commodities in the sport and they are damn near impossible to acquire. Here were two available for cash, and the Yankees passed despite having a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year.

Scott Boras, Harper’s agent, told Ken Davidoff the Yankees were “really never a thought because we knew going in, because of the structure of the game, only certain houses were to be looked at as far as potentials,” whatever that means. In recent days both Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone gave a flat “no” response when asked whether Harper was ever a real possibility for the Yankees. From David Lennon:

“I’m closing the chapter on these questions about high-end free agency in the winter,” Cashman said before Sunday’s game at Steinbrenner Field. “I feel like we’ve vetted that enough. Sorry. I’d rather focus on the here and now, and the real rather than the unreal.”

…

“We’re obviously up and running with what we’ve got,” Cashman said. “We’re excited about what we got, and how a lot of it looks like now, and hoping that’s enough. But you’re always looking to improve over the course of time, if it’s within certain parameters on both ends. So, obviously between now and Aug. 31, we’ll continue to evaluate all opportunities.”

The Yankees are going to win a lot of games — a lot of games — this season and in future seasons as well. They’re loaded with talent and their best players are all either in their prime or approaching it. I still believe passing on Machado and Harper was a mistake, and not a small one either. There is always room for improvement and both guys would’ve easily fit into the lineup. This past offseason will be relitigated many times in the future. Get ready for it.

Anyway, because this is a full service blog and I try to present #bothsides whenever possible, I figured it was time to explore why the Yankees were smart to pass on Machado and Harper. Some reasons are more believable than others, but hey, they are all potential reasons. Here’s why the Yankees were smart to not sign two 26-year-old superstars and make themselves the clear-cut best team in baseball.

1. Harper’s contact rate is trending down. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is trending down, specifically. Hitters all around baseball are making less and less contact because the pitching is so good, but, in Harper’s case, he has swung through a ton of pitches out over the plate over the last year and change. I mean, look:

Harper’s raw power is thunderous. He can hit the ball as far as anyone in baseball. But, over the last year, year and a half, he is missing the pitches he should be clobbering more and more often. Harper’s plate discipline is exceptional. The guy has a 17.4% walk rate the last four years. (Aaron Judge has a 17.2% walk rate the last two years, for comparison.) He gets himself into good hitter’s counts. He just isn’t capitalizing as much as he should be.

To be fair to Harper, the league average contact rate on pitches in the zone has gone from 87.1% in 2015 to 85.6% in 2018. Like I said, pitching is ridiculously good right now. Harper’s in-zone contact rate sat at 78.0% last year. That ranked 137th among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Hmmm.

2. Machado is sort of a jerk. Machado’s comments about not being “Johnny Hustle” and running out grounders not being “my cup of tea” got a lot of play over the winter and I totally get it. Jogging out routine ground balls doesn’t bother me much though. Yes, it would be nice to see Machado and every other player run out every grounder (especially in the postseason!), but it’s just not going to happen.

The hustle comments overshadowed some dirty at best and intentionally dangerous at worst plays last postseason. Most notably, Machado straight up kicked Jesus Aguilar in the ankle at first base during the NLCS. You’ve seen this by now:

I don’t know how anyone could watch that and see it as anything other than an intent to injure. Machado didn’t take a misstep and the throw didn’t take Aguilar into Machado’s path. He went out of his way to kick him as he ran through first base. That is dirty as hell. I reckon something like that would’ve earned Machado a fastball to the ribs had it happened during the regular season. We’ll see what happens when the Padres play the Brewers this year.

Everyone has a bad day now and then, but, in Machado’s case, it’s impossible to dismiss this as a bad day given his history. He tried to throw a bat at a pitcher. He got into it with Josh Donaldson. He spiked Dustin Pedroia. I honestly believe the Pedroia thing was an accident. Machado hit the bag hard and his foot popped up, and Pedroia’s calf was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That said, Manny hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

The Yankees go to great lengths to ensure they have a good clubhouse culture — to be fair to Machado, has anyone ever said he’s a bad teammate? (quite the opposite, in fact) — and even if Machado were a model citizen with the Yankees, his reputation is established and it will follow him. He would be asked about it, his teammates would be asked about it, Boone and the coaches would be asked about it. Even on his best behavior, Machado would be a distraction.

3. Harper is falling victim to the shift. Remember how frustrating it was to watch Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann pulled grounder after grounder into the shift all those years? Harper is not quite at that level yet, but he is seeing more and more shifts with each passing year. The numbers:

  • 2015: 19.3% plate appearances with the shift
  • 2016: 36.5%
  • 2017: 38.8%
  • 2018: 41.4%

I guess teams finally started to pay attention after Harper’s historically great MVP season in 2015. Over the last three seasons Harper has an 82 wRC+ with the shift. That is: bad. He is seeing the shift more and more often with each passing season and, well, you do the math. Harper had a sub-.250 batting average in two of the last three seasons (.243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018) and the shift is a major reason why. Unless baseball outlaws the shift, which is certainly possible, Harper is only going to see it more often going forward.

4. Machado’s on-base skills aren’t elite. The power and contact ability are certainly elite, few players strike out as little as Machado while hitting for that much power, but the on-base percentage leaves you wanting more. Since breaking out as a bona fide star four years ago, Machado’s posted a .345 OBP in over 2,800 plate appearances, and his career high is a .367 OBP last year. Manny isn’t shy about chasing pitches out of the zone:

The okay but not great plate discipline — Machado is not an extreme hacker, but he isn’t up there looking to walk — is a reason why, despite the contact ability and 142 homers the last four years, Machado’s very best offensive season (141 wRC+ in 2018) is only roughly as good as Giancarlo Stanton’s average season (142 wRC+). Simply put, a player who doesn’t walk much has less margin for the error. If the batting average isn’t there, the offensive value can plummet quick. (That applies to Miguel Andujar, it should be noted.)

5. Both have injury histories. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and both Harper and Machado have an injury history. In Machado’s case, he had surgery on both knees in the span of a few months back in 2013-14. They were non-contact injuries — he hurt his right knee running through first base and his left knee taking a swing — that required a lengthy rehab. To Machado’s credit, he’s played in 637 of 648 possible games the last four years, so the knees have given him no trouble since. Still, two knee surgeries is bad news.

As for Harper, his injury history is more diverse and the injuries have typically been the result of aggressive play. He banged up his knee crashing into the wall in 2013 and played hurt throughout the second half. He tore ligaments in his thumb on an aggressive slide and required surgery in 2014. In 2017 he slipped on a wet base and hyperextended his knee. I remember watching the play live and thinking his knee was destroyed. Somehow he escaped with no fracture or ligament damage. Crazy. Harper has missed 140 games the last five years, roughly a full season’s worth.

Machado’s knees are kinda scary — how much longer does he have at third base (or shortstop) before his legs send him to a less demanding position? — and, in Harper’s case, he played a cautious outfield last year, likely out of self-preservation. There were no dives or crashing into the wall. On one hand, he stayed healthy, and that’s good. On the other, his defensive numbers went in the tank. Point is, we’re talking about very long-term contracts and players with injury histories that can’t be ignored.

6. The Yankees do have a budget. Joel Sherman recently reported Hal Steinbrenner set a $220M or so luxury tax payroll limit for Opening Day. Complain about that number all you want — and believe me, I do (why has payroll not increased at all in nearly ten years? am I really supposed to believe operating costs have climbed to the point where they cancel out all the additional revenue?) — but the fact of the matter is Cashman and his baseball operations folks had to operate around that budget.

Cot’s has the 2019 payroll at $222.4M for luxury tax purposes at the moment. We could play the “don’t sign Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, and Adam Ottavino and they could’ve afforded Harper at his luxury tax number instead!” game until we’re blue in the face, but that leaves the Yankees short an infielder and a reliever. No Gardner, no LeMahieu, and no Zack Britton is enough to afford Machado, but again, it leaves roster holes elsewhere. Dollars and roster spots are not unlimited resources, and the Yankees opted to use their money to upgrade as many roster spots as possible rather than land that one big fish. The 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way.

Also, this applies long-term as well. The Yankees will have to pay Aaron Judge enormous arbitration raises starting next year. Keeping Aaron Hicks long-term was a priority. Locking up Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances is presumably next on the agenda. I don’t know how we went from “young players are cheap, allowing teams to surround them with free agents” to “young players are cheap, but they’ll be expensive eventually so you can’t sign anyone,” but we have. Bottom line: Every dollar the Yankees had given Machado or Harper is a dollar they couldn’t give someone else.

7. The Yankees know what they’re doing. Cashman and his staff have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees are healthier as an organization now than they have been in years, probably since the late-1990s. The farm system is immensely productive and slam dunk trade wins like Hicks and Gregorius are the norm. I mean, seriously, when’s the last time the Yankees traded away a player they truly miss? I can’t remember. The baseball operations folks have more information than us and they’re much smarter than us, and they opted to pass on Machado and Harper.

* * *

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees made a mistake passing on Machado and Harper. Even with the warts, they are insanely productive and only now entering what should be the prime of their careers, which aligns perfectly with the team’s championship window. The Yankees should always and forever be in on players like this. What I think doesn’t matter though. The Yankees have a budget, and squint your eyes and you can find red flags with Harper and Machado. Also, the Yankees are pretty good at this team-building thing, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully passing on these two is not something they come to regret.

Reports: Harper agrees to 13-year, $330M deal with Phillies

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(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

You can stop hoping the Yankees will swoop in to sign Bryce Harper like they did Mark Teixeira back in the day now. According to multiple reports, Harper has agreed to a massive 13-year, $330M contract with the Phillies. It is the largest contract in baseball history, besting Giancarlo Stanton’s deal by $5M in total guarantee.

Harper’s new contract reportedly does not include any opt-outs, which is a bit surprising. Here are the largest contracts in baseball history:

  1. Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
  2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
  3. Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
  4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
  5. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

The 13-year contract covers Harper’s age 26-38 seasons and comes with a very affordable $25.38M average annual value (and thus luxury tax hit). I thought maybe Harper and Scott Boras would try to top the average annual value record (Zack Greinke at $34.42M), but I guess not. The Dodgers and Giants were said to be in the mix on short-term deals, which was never all that realistic.

The Yankees were never seriously connected to Harper this offseason. They were tied to Machado all throughout the winter, though they were never all the way in. With Harper, they weren’t involved at all even though he’s a 26-year-old superstar with lefty power and patience, two traits that define the Yankees historically. Instead, the Yankees passed on the big fish to spread out the money this winter.

I don’t know about you, but I can not believe the Yankees passed on two elite prime-aged talents like Harper and Machado after developing a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year. It’s one thing to get outbid or have the player choose another team, but not even making a serious attempt to sign either of them? Infuriating. What a scam.

How recent history led the Yankees to avoid Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

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(Patrick Semansky/AP)

Like it or not, the Yankees spent modestly this winter.

While two big fish sat in free agency, the Bombers instead looked for lesser improvements. Still, the Yankees came away with arguably the best starter and reliever who changed teams this offseason while retaining three pitchers, Brett Gardner and adding two infielders.

For many fans and observers, that offseason wasn’t enough. The Yankees, after all, are the richest team in baseball and could have easily made room for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. You can just imagine what either hitter would look like next to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The common complaint was that if you’re not going to spend on either Harper or Machado, why did the team get under the luxury tax?

However, when one looks back at the last time the Yankees spent big in free agency, there was a much more pressing need. Let’s take a look back at the 2013-14 offseason for a second.

The 2013 Yankees were as much of a disaster as an 85-win team can be, at least in New York. Injuries ran roughshod through the roster, claiming Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Michael Pineda. The big money starter, CC Sabathia, sported a 4.78 ERA and was well-below league-average.

To summarize how bad it got, look at the team’s Baseball Reference page. Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix, late-career Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki to go with 36-year-old Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner each played in more than half the Yankees’ games. Yikes.

The team was set to get worse in the offseason. Alex Rodriguez was suspended for all of the 2014 season, giving New York more spending flexibility but one fewer big bat. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte were retiring and Robinson Cano, one of just two above-average regulars, left for the greener pastures (at least in terms of dollars) of Seattle. There was no Judge or Luis Severino coming through the Minors to save the day.

This was also right at the time of the Yankees’ first attempt to evade the luxury tax in what was known as Plan 189 around these parts. The Steinbrenners were faced with the choice of getting under the tax and abandoning a realistic playoff chase or spending their way to a competitive-looking roster. This was before Brian Cashman was able to convince ownership to sell off parts and said owners chose to remain competitive.

Thus, the team went hard, eschewing Cano and signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann early in free agency. With a clear need still present in the rotation, Cashman got sign-off to pursue Masahiro Tanaka and acquired the righty in January 2014.

It’s easy to say that this was short-sighted with the aging roster and Ellsbury’s onerous contract. However, while one can question the methods, the intent was clear.

Back to the present day, the roster has shed the ancient appearance for a youthful glee as the Yankees returned to prominence. That ultimately was a large part of the plan after the 2016 trade deadline, turning to a young, sustainable core.

However, this core arrived well ahead of schedule. Just think back to Spring Training 2017. Aarons Judge and Hicks had combined for -0.7 WAR the prior season while Severino failed in his first go-around as a starter. The team traded two of its most prolific hitters, Beltran and McCann, as “transition” hung in the air as the buzzword. In other words, expect a worse product in the short term.

From there, Hicks, Judge and Severino turned into All-Star caliber players while Stanton fell into the Yankees’ laps. The team has won 191 games over the last two years and made it within a game of the World Series. Not a championship, but certainly poised to reach that height.

Looking at it from ownership’s perspective, the team has the infield set for years behind Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres. The outfield has Hicks, Judge and Stanton while Brett Gardner and Troy Tulowitzki serve as stopgaps for Gregorius and Clint Frazier. The Bombers are already on the cusp of the World Series.

So Yankees chose to leave very good alone instead of go for standout greatness as no team pushed their postseason spot. Likely, if Judge, Sevy and others don’t turn into stars right away and reach the ALCS in 2017 — if 2018 looks more like 2013 than 2017 — the front office views Harper or Machado (or both) as necessities rather than luxuries.

The media has occasionally pointed to Ellsbury’s contract as a reason the Yankees or other teams would be hesitant to give out big contracts, but that simply doesn’t apply to the Bombers. This is the team that traded for A-Rod and Stanton’s record deals while giving Rodriguez and Sabathia top-of-the-market contracts, all while giving long-term deals to Jeter, Teixeira and so on. They’ve stomached bad deals and they’ve thrived with great ones.

The team now turns to its in-house options as well as their fine additions with Paxton and Ottavino. The team relies heavily upon Didi’s recovery, avoiding regression from Andujar and a five-man rotation with plenty of injury risk. Still, the talent and promise in the Bronx is palpable even without Machado and Harper.

Whether they regret that comfortable feeling of having essentially reached the postseason in March will play out as it may, but it’s hard to deny that compared to 2013-14, or even 2008-09, there wasn’t the pressing need. Harper or Machado wouldn’t have guaranteed the Yankees would surpass Boston or Houston and ultimately, that opportunity cost spelled the difference between either player donning pinstripes and our2 current reality.

Eight storylines to follow as the Yankees begin Spring Training

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(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday and it didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first injury of the spring. Pitching prospect Mike King will miss at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Baseball always has a way of keeping you humble. Excited Spring Training has started? Well you won’t be seeing this pitching prospect this spring, sorry. So it goes.

Position players report Monday and the Yankees open their Grapefruit League season next Saturday. These next ten days are a grind. Baseball is happening and not happening at the same time. We waited all winter for Spring Training to begin and now we have to wait a little longer for actual baseball games, and even then the games are meaningless. It’s baseball though, and baseball is better than no baseball.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is a good time to break down some key Yankees storylines for the coming weeks. Players to watch, trends to track, that sorta thing. Here are eight storylines to watch this spring, listed in no particular order.

Seriously, what about Harper and Machado?

Look, I’m as sick of writing about them as you are of hearing about them, but as long as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, we have to talk about them. The stunningly stupid prevailing logic says MLB teams all have smart front offices now and they’ve realized paying top dollar for aging past prime players elite prime-aged talent is a bad idea. Did you know ten teams have a sub-$100M payroll? In 2019? Crazy.

Anyway, the Yankees only half-heartedly pursued Machado over the winter and they weren’t connected to Harper at all. “I’m surprised you’re still asking,” said Brian Cashman when asked about possibly signing Harper during the Winter Meetings. The thing is, the longer those two sit in free agency, the greater the chances the Yankees swoop in to sign one of ’em. The temptation has to be there, and, at this point, I have to think a discount is possible.

It feels like everyone I talk to wants Machado and Harper to sign just to get it over with already. We’re sick of hearing about them and, frankly, it’s embarrassing for baseball that these two are unemployed as camp opens. It looks bad. Hopefully the Yankees can sign either Machado or Harper. That would be preferable but weeks ago I accepted they’re probably going elsewhere. Until they sign though, their situation has to be monitored.

Tulowitzki’s comeback attempt

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki has fully recovered from last year’s dual heel surgeries and is as healthy as he’s been at any point in the last couple years, plus he is basically free, so the Yankees could easily cut him loose should he not get the job done. The Bad: The Yankees seem very committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop and I’m not sure they would cut him loose even if his production warrants it.

“The plan right now is to get Troy ready to play shortstop. That’s where he’ll focus,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. “As the weeks — as the months — unfold we’ll adjust if we need to. We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there.”

“We were all in. He really looked athletic (during his workout), it looked like he had that bounce back in his step. We feel there is a lot of potential upside here,” said Cashman last month. I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s a low-risk contract and, as a former star caliber player, there’s always a chance he has a late-career dead cat bounce season. Think Eric Chavez in 2012. He’s worth a look with Didi Gregorius out.

Tulowitzki has not played since July 2017 and you kinda have to expect some rust after that. He has been working out all winter — Tulowitzki has been in Tampa working out at the minor league complex for a few days now even though position players aren’t due to report until Monday — but there’s no substitute for game action. Those first few live pitches and ground balls might speed up on him a little bit, you know?

Spring Training performance is not very predictive and that will be especially true in Tulowitzki’s case. Certainly it would be great to see him knock the snot out of the ball and vacuum up everything at shortstop for a few weeks. Even then, we won’t know how long it’ll last because he’s had so many injury problems throughout his career. For all intents and purposes, we’re going into camp with no idea what to expect from Tulowitzki. We’ll learn as we go.

Andujar’s defense

“Entirely at third,” Boone came out and said yesterday when asked where Miguel Andujar will play going forward. “That said, there may be a day or two that we pick to have him on a back field just getting some first base in — which we may do with a (Austin) Romine or a Gary (Sanchez) — pick a day just to keep some versatile options when you get into a little bit of a bind. His game work will be, I’ll say pretty much entirely at third base.”

Last season Andujar was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball (according to DRS) and the Yankees sent him into the offseason with a plan to improve what he does before the pitch is thrown. They want him to get in better position to react and make plays, basically. Andujar’s hands and throwing arm are pretty good! There are times he stumbles over his own feet though, and he rushes his throws because he double-clutches so often.

I have no illusions of Andujar becoming an above-average defender. He is a tireless worker and I don’t doubt that he’ll try to improve. It’s just that going from that bad to that good is unlikely. Has anyone else done it? Gone from being one of the worst defenders in baseball, statistically, to being legitimately above-average? I can’t think of anyone. My hopes are modest. Andujar becomes an average defender who makes routine plays look routine. That’s all I’m asking.

I think two things will happen this spring: One, any Andujar misplay will be magnified, and two, he’ll look better than expected at third base because we’ve kinda lost perspective about him as a defender after spending all winter talking about how bad he defensively. Pre-pitch setup is not something we’ll be able to evaluate in Spring Training. At least not on television. Clearly though, Andujar’s defense is something to monitor throughout camp.

“I feel like he’s in a really good place defensively,” Boone added. “There’s some things that we’ve had him work on defensively that I think have really taken hold with him. And I think he’s had a great winter of work — I think all of you that have been around and have seen the work ethic, that’s reared its head in the winter — I feel that he’s another guy that comes into Spring Training in a really good place.”

Sabathia’s farewell

(Presswire)

On Saturday, CC Sabathia will make official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hold a press conference (with his family in attendance) to formally announce his retirement, and mostly take questions because no one has had a chance to ask him about it. Man I hope he doesn’t cry during the press conference. Not sure I could handle seeing the big guy in tears.

Once the press conference is over with, it’ll be time to get down to business. Sabathia had his usual offseason knee cleanup procedure and also heart surgery in December, and Boone said yesterday the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia early in camp. So much so that his first bullpen session could be a few weeks away, which would seem to put his Opening Day roster status in question.

Sabathia is fine, physically. It’s just that the heart procedure interrupted his offseason work and put him behind schedule, and he’s still catching up. The Yankees take it very easy on Sabathia in Spring Training anyway — he usually pitches in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games — so it’ll be tough to know exactly how far behind schedule he is. He’s a difficult guy to track usually because we rarely see him in games.

If Sabathia has to start the season on the injured list, so be it. Won’t be the only time the Yankees have to use one of their depth starters this year. The larger point is this is it for Sabathia, and maybe Brett Gardner as well, the final two links to the 2009 World Series team. It’s one thing when the veterans assume reduced roles. It’s another when they’re gone and the changing of the guard is complete.

How is the rehab group doing?

The list of rehabbing Yankees is sneaky long. Sabathia did not suffer a baseball injury but he will be playing catch up in Spring Training. Tulowitzki has technically completed his heel surgery rehab but is something of an unknown, physically. Clint Frazier is in a similar spot following his concussion and post-concussion migraines. Here are some of the other rehabbing Yankees and their statuses:

  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery): He won’t report with position players Monday and will instead stay home in Arizona for a few more weeks. Weird, man.
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery): Started a throwing program last week and is a few weeks away from swinging a bat two-handed. The Yankees refuse to give a firm timetable for his return.
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery): No update, probably because he’s not a big name player.
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery): Expected to throw off a mound next month and rejoin the Yankees sometime after the All-Star break.
  • Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery): He is hitting and catching, and will be held back early in Grapefruit League play. Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day.

We won’t see Gregorius or Montgomery participate in Grapefruit League games at all this spring given where they are in their rehab. The same is probably true with Ellsbury, and Heller as well. We’ll see Sanchez on the field and be able to track his progress ourselves. The other guys? No luck. The Yankees will give us updates when they’re deemed necessary and we’ll continue to guesstimate Sir Didi’s return date and Ellsbury’s future.

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius yesterday. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

LeMahieu’s transition to utility infielder

It has been nearly five years since DJ LeMahieu played a position other than second base. He played one inning at first base in an emergency situation on June 28th, 2014, and he didn’t even have to make a play. A reliever struck out the side in that inning. LeMahieu has played second base exclusively since that date and that includes Spring Training. The Rockies never worked him out anywhere else.

The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility guy — Boone said yesterday the plan is to give Tulowitzki regular rest in April in an effort to keep him healthy, which equals playing time for LeMahieu — and gosh, that always makes me nervous, moving a full-time player into a part-time role. It sounds great, bringing in a regular for a bench role, but it can be a difficult adjustment.

I have no idea how LeMahieu will handle it offensively. Not only is he leaving Coors Field, but he’s also going not going to get as many at-bats as usual. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine. He’s a legitimate Gold Glove guy at second base. His range, his hands, his arm, and his instincts are all good, so it’s not like the Yankees are asking a guy short on defensive tools to move around. I see four ways for LeMahieu to get playing time:

  • Start at second base on days Tulowitzki sits (with Gleyber Torres at short).
  • Start at first base when Luke Voit sits (or Greg Bird sits, I guess).
  • Replace Andujar in the late innings pretty much every game.
  • Play third whenever Sabathia (and J.A. Happ?) starts to handle all the pulled grounders by righties.

LeMahieu has the tools to play pretty much anywhere on the infield. He just hasn’t played anywhere other than second base in a few years now, so he’s going to spend a lot time working out at first and third bases this spring. Probably more than he does at second. My guess is LeMahieu winds up playing more than expected this season, maybe as many as 500 plate appearances, but this spring will be about adjusted to life as a glorified utility guy.

The few position battles

“Hopefully, if things play out from a health standpoint in Spring Training, there will be very few decisions that we have to make,” said Boone yesterday, and he’s right. At the moment the Yankees are poised to have very few position battles in Spring Training. Two bullpen spots and a bench spot. That’s pretty much it. This is the projected 25-man Opening Day roster right now:

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Luke Voit LF Brett Gardner Luis Severino CL Aroldis Chapman
2B Gleyber Torres CF Aaron Hicks James Paxton SU Dellin Betances
SS Troy Tulowitzki RF Aaron Judge Masahiro Tanaka SU Zach Britton
INJURED LIST 3B Miguel Andujar OF Giancarlo Stanton J.A. Happ SU Adam Ottavino
Didi Gregorius CC Sabathia MR Chad Green
Ben Heller BENCH MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery C Austin Romine ??? ???
Jacoby Ellsbury IF DJ LeMahieu ???

The rotation order and the batting order will be whatever they end up being. Those are 22 of their 25 Opening Day roster names though. There is one open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. Should Sabathia have to begin the season on the injured list, then there will be a competition for the fifth starter’s spot as well. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees only have to figure out the 23rd, 24th, and 25th men on their roster.

With Ellsbury out of the picture, the final bench spot comes down to Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade. There’s a small army of relievers up for those bullpen roles. Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley, so on and so forth. Cessa and Kahnle are out of minor league options and that might give them a leg up on the competition — Boone hinted that Cessa is headed for a bullpen role yesterday — but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Spring Training competitions are kinda weird. First and foremost, spring performance is not very predictive, and yet teams base roster decisions on spring performance all the time. We see it every year. Bird could hit .350/.450/.750 during Grapefruit League play and it wouldn’t tell us a thing about him going forward, but it would probably land him on the Opening Day roster. Hard to ignore numbers like that, you know?

And secondly, Spring Training competitions don’t end on Opening Day. Whoever wins the final bullpen spot better pitch well during the regular season, otherwise the Yanks will swap them out with someone else. Winning a spring position battle is the easy part. Keeping the job is where it gets difficult. The Yankees have a few roster decisions to make in camp. Thankfully nothing major. And it’s entirely possible those roster decisions could be upended a few weeks into the regular season. Such is life.

Farquhar’s comeback attempt

Last, but certainly not least, the Yankees have a feel-good story in camp in Danny Farquhar. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s healthy, and that’s all that matters. Farquhar suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April when a brain aneurysm ruptured. He collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox and had to be rushed to the hospital, where he remained for three weeks.

Farquhar’s recovery is complete and he will be a fully participant in Spring Training — his first spring bullpen session is scheduled for tomorrow — which is wonderful news. Maybe he won’t make the roster and instead go to Triple-A, or opt out of his contract and sign with a team willing to put him on their Opening Day roster. Either way, I’m glad Farquhar recovered and able to resume his career, and I think it’s pretty cool he’ll do it with the Yankees.

How confident are you that the Yankees will make the postseason?

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(Rob Carr/Getty)

I’m at 92%. You might be a bit above or a bit below that, depending on how you feel about how the team is constructed. No matter where you are, the important thing is to arrive at a number. Look around the league. What would have to go wrong for the Yankees and right for everyone else for them to miss the postseason? It doesn’t seem too likely.

Would signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado much improve your confidence of the Yankees making the postseason? Probably not, since it’s high already. I go from 92% to 98% — it would take a whole ton going wrong in the Bronx combined with enough going right in Anaheim, Tampa, or Minnesota to topple the Yankees in this scenario.

Making the playoffs 98 times out of 100 rather than 92 on the surface suggests that signing Harper or Machado might not be the best use of resources. Why take on that level of risk for only a marginal improvement in your chances?

The goal, of course, isn’t simply to make the playoffs. Let’s extend this exercise.

How confident are you that the Yankees will win the AL East? This has value, as we witnessed the last two years in the Wild Card game. It absolutely affects the confidence you’d have in the Yankees progressing to the ALDS, which de facto affects your confidence in them making or winning the World Series.

Right now I’m at 55%. The Red Sox have some holes and probably won’t be as good as they were last year. Maybe 55% is a bit high, maybe it should be 52%, with the Red Sox at 45% and the Rays at 3%. But I’m sticking with 55% for the moment. If they signed Harper or Machado, however, I’d be at 67%. This can make a big difference going forward.

Technical mumbo jumbo
Without walking through all the steps, once I account for my confidence both of them winning the division and making the playoffs I can run them through similar exercises for the playoffs. Quickly: if I have them winning the division 55 times that means I have them winning the Wild Card 37 times. If I’m 65% confident of them winning the WC game (perhaps too confident here), then they win 24 times. That’s 79 times in the ALDS, and at a 60% confidence of winning that they make the ALCS 47 times, and even at 55% confidence they win that they make the World Series just 26 times, and so win 13 times.

After running each scenario through my various confidences in them winning at each stage, this is where I arrive:

 Confidence
Without H/M With H/M
Make postseason 92% 98%
Win AL East 55% 67%
Win AL Pennant 26% 29%
Win World Series 13% 15%

Is shelling out a long-term $300 million contract worth a two-percentage-point increase in their chances of winning the World Series?

Hell yes.

For starters, it’s not just two percentage points this year. Signing one of these free agents will add to the team’s confidence in winning the World Series for years to come. That is, every year for the next — say five, at least — you’ll have more confidence that the Yankees will win the World Series than you would if they don’t sign one of them.

Second, percentage points don’t tell the whole story here. By nature your confidence in any one team winning the World Series won’t be that high. The field is too large and baseball too unpredictable. Increasing a low number by two percentage points, though, can be significant in terms of relative increase. For instance, signing Harper or Machado increases my confidence that they’ll make the postseason by six percentage points, which in this case amounts to 6.5%. Going from 13% to 15% confidence they win the World Series is a 15% increase. That’s pretty significant.

Incidentally, using Cot’s payroll projection of $211,742,500, signing Harper or Machado would likely represent a 15% increase in payroll.

A 15% increase in payroll for a 15% increase in confidence they’ll win the World Series? Seems equitable to me.

Having to pay the core in a few years is not a good enough reason to pass on Machado and Harper

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(Presswire)

The Yankees open Spring Training on Wednesday and, barring a massive surprise, neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper will be in Tampa. They remain unsigned partly because the Yankees opted to spread the money around this offseason rather than go for one or two huge signings. You can win that way. Rarely do you regret signing a star-caliber player in his mid-20s though.

Anyway, with Harper and Machado still on the market, Hal Steinbrenner was asked about signing the duo last week, and gave a bit of a defensive answer centered around the team’s expenses. “(There’s) no discussion of our costs, that’s always the problem. I hear everything about our revenues, I hear nothing about our cost,” Hal said to Ron Blum. Unless the Yankees open their books (lol), we’ll never know their expenses. C’est la vie.

As part of the Harper and Machado discussion, Steinbrenner gave another payroll-related reason to pass on the two: The Yankees will have to sign their homegrown core at some point. From Blum:

“I have to look at the big picture, and it is my responsibility — that my family expects, my partners expect — not just to look at the present but to look at the future, too,” he said. “Three, four, five years from now we get a lot of homegrown kids that we love, our fans love, that are going to be coming up for free agency.”

Of course ownership has to keep an eye on future payroll, and yes, the homegrown core is about to get expensive. Luis Severino reached arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two this offseason. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will hit arbitration for the first time after 2019 and then Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres (Super Two) after 2020. The kids grow up fast, man. A few thoughts on this.

1. Are we really supposed to believe this? Let’s be real here. “We have to sign our core in a few years” is a pretty lame excuse to not pursue Machado or Harper or whoever else. It will sound especially silly if Machado or Harper wind up taking short-term contracts, which is possible, but I don’t think likely. A short-term contract would render this excuse completely moot. Some facts:

  • Hal is arguing the Yankees can’t sign 26-year-old Machado and Harper now because they’ll have to pay 31-year-old Judge and 30-year-old Sanchez down the line, among others.
  • The Yankees walked away from 31-year-old Robinson Cano, at the time the best second baseman in baseball and at his absolute peak, even though he was a homegrown star of the first order.
  • The Yankees have one contract on the books beyond 2021 (Giancarlo Stanton) and potentially only two beyond 2020 (Stanton and Adam Ottavino) depending how a few opt-out clauses and vesting options play out.

Also, who’s to say these guys will be worth signing in a few years anyway? Severino could break down (pitchers are known to do that), Sanchez and Andujar could be designated hitters, who knows how Judge will age at that size, so on and so forth. I know we’re supposed to be all optimistic about young players but damn man, things take a turn for a worst all the time. That’s the harsh reality of baseball. The 2015 rookie position player WAR leaderboard:

  1. Kris Bryant: +6.1 WAR (he’s awesome!)
  2. Matt Duffy: +4.4 WAR (huh)
  3. Francisco Lindor: +4.0 WAR (he’s awesome too!)
  4. Odubel Herrera: +3.8 WAR (oy)
  5. Jung Ho Kang: +3.7 WAR (eep)

Two outta five ain’t bad, I guess. But do you see why it’s not a great idea to make decisions based on payroll hypotheticals three or four years down the line? Especially when you’re a win-now team and on the very short list of legitimate World Series contenders? I’ll be sick to my stomach if the Yankees waste this window because future payroll took priority over putting the team in the best possible position to win right now.

2. Why not sign them to extensions? This is the other thing. The Yankees could give themselves long-term cost certainty right now by signing some of their young players to extensions. And maybe they’re trying. Spring Training is typically extension season. That’s usually when we see clubs lock their guys up long-term, so get ready for a flurry of extensions across the league in the coming weeks.

Perhaps the Yankees will be among the teams to sign one of their core young players long-term before Opening Day. Would be kinda cool. The Yankees have been very stingy with extensions over the last 20 years, however. They have signed one (1) player to an extension several years prior to free agency this century. That is Robinson Cano’s four years (plus two club options) deal in February 2008, when he had just short of three years of service time. That’s the only one.

The Yankees signed Brett Gardner (February 2014), Javy Vazquez (January 2004), Derek Jeter (February 2001), and Andy Pettitte (January 2000) to multi-year extensions this century but those four were all one year away from free agency at the time of their deal. It was time to act, you know? The Yankees signed Cano four years prior to free agency. He was where Judge, Sanchez, and Severino are right now as far as years of control go.

The Cano extension was a smashing success. The Yankees never regretted it for a second. That doesn’t mean they all work out well, of course. A Chien-Ming Wang extension in February 2008 would’ve been a disaster. Someone could always go all Grady Sizemore on you. Signing anyone long-term involves risk and the Yankees avoiding extensions all these years tells us they want to avoid that risk. The tend to push the big payday off as long as possible.

To be fair, the Yankees haven’t had many young players worth extending over the years. There was Gardner and, uh, David Robertson? That’s about it. The Yankees definitely have young players worth extending now though, and if being able to sign them down the road is truly a big enough concern to pass on Harper and Machado*, then gosh, getting these guys signed as quickly as possible (potentially at a discount) seems worthwhile, no?

* The unwillingness to sign Harper and Machado because the kids will eventually need be signed does not jibe at all with the Nolan Arenado stuff we’ve heard, but I digress.

Given the state of free agency, waiting to sign young players long-term makes total sense to me because that big free agent payday might not be there down the road. That’s the entire point of an extension, right? To lock a young player up now at a salary lower than what he’d make as a free agent. Well, those free agent paydays are disappearing, so why take the risk? If Severino breaks down or Judge forgets how to hit, the Yanks can walk away no strings attached. That’s not possible with an extension.

Current contract commitments are not really an issue. All those free agents the Yankees signed this winter signed relatively short-term deals. Masahiro Tanaka’s and Jacoby Ellsbury’s huge contracts go away in two years. Stanton, who could opt out in two years but probably won’t given the state of free agency, is the only long-term contract on the books. It’s impossible to look at the roster and think the Yankees will be held back by onerous deals in a three years given their current commitments.

For all intents and purposes, Hal told us the Yankees won’t sign Harper and Machado because they want to make sure they can have an aging and expensive core in a few years. That’s what it boils down to, right? Can’t sign those free agents now because we’re really looking forward to paying Judge $35M a year from ages 31-35! Give me a break. And what happens with the young players in a few years? I’m looking forward to hearing the Yankees can’t sign Judge in 2021 because they’ll have to pay Everson Pereira down the road.

More than anything, I hate that the young players are being used as an excuse to pass on Harper and Machado. The kids have done absolutely everything asked of them. It’s been remarkable and fun. Now they’re a reason to pass on great players? How unfair. I was under the impression that one of the benefits of having cheap young (great) players is being able to use the available payroll space to supplement them with more high-end talent. Guess that was my mistake.

It is more clear than ever before that avoiding big money deals is a top priority — that applies to every team, not only the Yankees — and any excuse will do. Having many great young and cheap players is now being cited as a reason not to spend on free agency. How in the world did baseball get here?

Kristaps Porzingis, Nolan Arenado, and the Yankees

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Arenado. (Joe Mahoney/Getty)

At the end of the week, the Knicks did something shocking that made a lot of people angry, as they are wont to do. Rather hastily, it seems, they traded injured-but-promising forward Kristaps Porzingis (and others) to the Dallas Mavericks for Dennis Smith, Jr. and a bunch of cap space. They’ll use that cap space to lure max contract-worthy free agents, just like they did post-2010 when they were able to sign…no one but Amare Stoudemire.

On January 31st, the Rockies avoided arbitration with Nolan Arenado, to whom the Yankees have been linked this offseason. Not just that, but Mike himself noted that the team’s owner is optimistic that the two parties can work out an extension now, rather than having to wait until 2019-20’s free agency period.

What do these two unrelated things have to do with the Yankees? They’re instructive, offering lessons the Yankees should take during this offseason: don’t waste a good thing when you’ve got it and don’t wait until next year.

The Knicks have been objectively terrible for a while now, much worse than the Yankees have been in decades. But in recent years, they had one thing going for them: Porzingis. Shelved as he may be this year, he was and is popular among his peers and fans for his unicorn skillset and talents. Undeniably, he was the one good thing you could count on for the future, especially considering the high draft pick the Knicks are likely to land after this season. He’s a good player with the potential to get better, something you build around. Obviously, his apparent frustration with the Knicks outweighed that in their mind and they shipped him out for the potential brought on by big money. Still, the return for a player as unique as Porzingis seems underwhelming and if they were going to move him before this week, they could’ve gotten something better. It’s unlikely that the Knicks would compete for a championship as soon as the Yankees will (this year, next year, etc.), but there’s something analogous in their situations.

The Yankees have an incredibly talented young core of players that they’ve supplemented by adding Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino. But by not adding the bigger pieces–Manny Machado and Bryce Harper–they risk not doing quite enough to push this talented team over the top. The Yankees are going to be very good in 2019; they’re going to win a lot of games and could, conceivably, win the World Series. Adding Harper, Machado, or both doesn’t guarantee them winning the World Series, of course, but it would go a long way towards helping. The Yankees aren’t selling a central piece like the Knicks did, but like the Knicks and their trade return, they risk not getting all they can from this core, from this very open window of competition.

Similarly, the Yankees can’t take a ‘wait till next year’ approach to fix any remaining holes or make any additions because, as an Arenado extension would show, your plans for next year can fall apart the minute another team does something. Man plans, baseball laughs.

The Yankees opting for Arenado–should he be available–isn’t ostensibly bad; he’s a great player that any team would be happy to have. But that’s just in a vacuum. Having him next year after not having Manny Machado this year is, relatively speaking, bad. Do not wait until next year. The better, younger player is right there for the taking, as is another younger, better player in Bryce Harper.

Given what I’m saying here, it feels like this should’ve been written in November or December. But here we are in February without these two great players signed, despite fitting the roster. Now, we’ve watched the Yankees’ ‘neighbor’ do something ill-advised and are watching as a potential target is starting to disappear. The 2019 Yankees are poised to do good things, but by not capitalizing on what they have, by waiting for next year, they’re holding back from doing great things.