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Lee holds down Yanks, gives Rangers series edge

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That's all it took (Mark Humphrey/AP)

Nine times the Yankees came to the plate needing at least two runs. Nine times they failed to produced even one. Josh Hamilton’s first-inning home run held up through the next eight and a half, and the Rangers took Game 3 of the American League Championship Series. They now lead the series two games to one.

Andy Pettitte did his part to keep the game close. After the Hamilton home run Pettitte pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and walking none. He left with the score 2-0. So did Kerry Wood. David Robertson did not. He let the game get out of hand in the ninth, removing any chance for a mystique and aura guided comeback.

It felt as though the Yanks were slowly making progress against Cliff Lee. Very slowly. But progress nonetheless. By the fourth they had earned a walk. In the fifth it was a hit. In the sixth they put a runner into scoring position — to third, even. But that was as far as they’d get. Lee cruised through the order one last time, concluding his night with his 13th strikeout. It was his third straight postseason start in which he recorded at least 10 strikeouts, and his fifth in his last six.

I wish this were a mid-June start rather than a postseason one. Not because the loss would have been essentially meaningless to the Yankees, though that does help. But because I wanted to more fully appreciate Lee’s performance. He worked into a few un-Cliff-Lee-like deep counts, but only one time did he lose a hitter. Some of that has to be attributable to the Yanks’ offense, but that doesn’t really matter. The mythical Cliff Lee showed up. You have to score a runner from second with none out if you want even the remotest shot of besting mythical Cliff Lee.

The Yanks can only hope now that mythical A.J. Burnett follows mythical Cliff Lee’s act. The Yanks are down 2-1 and need the win to ensure the return trip to Texas. Right now it doesn’t matter how comfortable anyone is with Burnett pitching Game 4. It’s all in his, and the offense’s, hands.

The history of the Yankees and Cliff Lee

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Tonight Cliff Lee will face the Yankees for the 15th, and perhaps final, time in his career. This presents the Yankees with their toughest challenge to date in the 2010 postseason. They’ve faced quality lefties in Francisco Liriano and C.J. Wilson previously, but neither of them quite matches Lee. Yet, despite what the hyperbole might suggest, the Yankees have had success against Lee in the past — one of the instances being an elimination game in the World Series. In the spirit of this match-up, let’s take a look at how the two have fared against each other during Lee’s career.

Before Grand Transformation

Yep, that's Melky. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

In 2002 the Montreal Expos were in a state of limbo. There was talk of contracting two teams, and the Expos would surely be one. The team’s owner, Jeffrey Loria, had already bought the Florida Marlins, leaving the team to MLB control. Still, on June 26 the team found itself in the midst of the playoff hunt. They were seven games back of Atlanta in the NL East and six behind the Diamondbacks for the Wild Card. A day later GM Omar Minaya traded his Nos. 1 and 3 prospects, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore, plus a left-handed pitcher named Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. While the trade flopped for Montreal — they finished 19 games back in the division and 13 games back of the Wild Card — it changed the course of the Indians.

Lee made his major league debut in 2002 and was ranked the Indians’ No. 3 prospect, behind Phillips and Victor Martinez, in 2003. He followed that up with an excellent season in the minors, which earned him a full-time spot in the 2004 rotation. That didn’t go so well, but the next year was his breakout. In 2005 Lee went 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA and FIP. He followed that up with a decent year, but he struck out far fewer batters and allowed quite a few more hits, leading to a 4.40 ERA and 4.73 FIP. That trouble grew in 2007. After three straight July starts in which he allowed seven earned runs, the Indians demoted him to AAA. They recalled him in September to pitch out of the bullpen, but they did not include him on the postseason roster.

From his debut through his demotion the Yankees faced Lee six times. During that span he pitched 34 innings and allowed 28 runs (25 earned). He clearly wasn’t the same pitcher as he is today: he walked 13 men in those games. The worst of the outings came on September 2, 2004, when he allowed six runs in just 1.2 innings. That was part of Lee’s second half collapse, in which he posted a 7.91 ERA in 15 starts. In 2005 he allowed five runs in six innings during one start. In 2006 they again lit him up, scoring seven runs (four earned) in six innings. They did not face him during his terrible 2007.

After the transformation

(Seth Wenig/AP)

In 2008, fresh off the Indian’s Game 7 loss to the Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS, Lee returned with a vengeance. Through April he had a 0.96 ERA and had walked just two men. He would have appeared to be the perfect complement to the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia, but Sabathia got off to a horrible start. Once he started to come around in May, the Indians were already out of the race. But that didn’t deter Lee. He faced the Yankees on May 7 of that year and spun seven shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none. (Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has a great story about meeting Lee on the subway before the game.) After a slight rough patch he cruised through the rest of the season, ending 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and the Cy Young Award.

Had something changed during Lee’s time in the minors? Or was this just a fluke season? It might have been tempting to say fluke, but the man displayed pinpoint control on nearly every pitch he threw. He ended the season leading the league in both walk rate and home run rate, so it was reasonable to think that while he might not have a 2.54 ERA again in 2009, that his success was for real. But his Opening Day start, in which he allowed seven runs in five innings, cast some doubt on the situation.

After another so-so start Lee picked right back up where he left off in 2008. From April 16 through July 26 he started 20 games and posted a 2.66 ERA, striking out 97 to 29 walks. After that July 26 start the Indians, knowing they wouldn’t contend in 2010 and would lose Lee after the season, traded him to the Phillies. In th emiddle of that run Lee spun six innings against the Yankees, allowing three runs on nine hits and two walks. While they were surely glad to have him out of the AL, he’d come back to haunt them in the postseason that year.

This year it appeared as though the Yankees would face Lee only once. He pitched a complete game on June 29, and while he allowed four runs (three earned) in that game, it doesn’t tell the entire story. He was completely dominant sans for appearances against Nick Swisher, plus a mini 9th-inning rally. He was set to face them again in the beginning of July, but it came out before his scheduled Friday night start that the Mariners intended to trade him prior to it. The rumored target was the Yankees, but that fell through and he ended up going to Texas. That hurt not only because the Yankees didn’t get their man, but that they’d have to face Lee twice more, whereas they were done with Seattle after that July series. The Yanks beat him the first time, scoring four runs in 6.1 innings before finishing the comeback against the bullpen. In the second instance only Derek Jeter could figure him out, and despite Dustin Moseley’s best efforts the Yanks dropped the game.

Postseason

(David J. Phillip/AP)

Lee’s postseason success against the Yankees typically get exaggerated, because he won both times he faced them in the 2009 World Series and was absolutely brilliant in Game 1. But he was beatable in Game 5, and the Yanks nearly did mount a comeback in that one despite A.J. Burnett’s horrible performance.

In Game 1 Lee was undeniably dominant. He pitched all nine innings and struck out 10 Yankees while walking none. The six hits he allowed were scattered, as he didn’t allow more than one base runner per inning until the ninth. Even then it was a matter of just two singles to lead off the inning. Lee got what appeared to be a ground ball double play from Mark Teixeira, but Jimmy Rollins threw away the ball. That allowed Jeter to score. Lee, apparently perturbed that his fielder ruined his shut out, struck out A-Rod and Posada to end the game.

The Yankees ended up turning things around in Game 5. A-Rod got them off to a 1-0 lead with a double to right, but A.J. Burnett gave it back when he allowed a three run homer in his half. Burnett then got knocked around in the third inning and had to exit the game. David Robertson allowed an inherited runner to score, leaving Burnett with six runs in just two innings. The Yankees chipped away, scoring four more runs off Lee (and Chan Ho Park). But thanks to a Phil Coke implosion they were still down three. They nearly brought it all home against Ryan Madson, as they had the tying run at the plate with none out. But Jeter grounded into a double play to lessen the threat.

Which Cliff Lee will we see tonight? Certainly we won’t see the Lee that faced the Yankees before his grand transformation. That guy is long gone. The new Lee has had his ups and downs against the Yankees. If he looks more like Game 5 Lee than Game 1 Lee, the Yanks have as good a shot as they’ve had against all the other postseason aces they’ve faced.

We got lucky

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When the Jesus Montero for Cliff Lee trade fell through, the worst case scenario was that Lee would come back to haunt the Yankees in the playoffs.  While that certainly could happen now, I’m here to tell you that even if the Rangers beat the Yankees spearheaded by two complete game shutouts from Lee, we should be happy the trade didn’t go through.  As good as Lee is, the future of the Yankees is better off with both Montero and a great chance at getting Lee than being left without either of them in 2011.

Would Lee have been easier to sign this offseason had the trade gone through?  Maybe yes, maybe no, I really can’t say.  I would venture to guess that there is no major difference, even if Lee came to the Yankees and absolutely loved it, there’s no way he was taking a penny less to stay in the pinstripes.  What would have happened, however, if he had a brief time in the Bronx and it didn’t go well?  What if his wife was harassed at the park?  What if he bombed in the playoffs and got killed in the press and booed off the mound?  Considering just how awesome he is, these are pretty unlikely, but worth thinking about nonetheless. If Lee had a 4 month stint in New York that was a disaster (or even 2 bad starts that spun the whole experiment as a disaster), wouldn’t the chances of him being in a Yankee uniform in 2011 be even worse?

As it is, Lee can be sold on New York from afar.  He will likely be offered the most money.  He can talk to former teammate and friend CC Sabathia about how great things are here (and of course CC could feel differently if he bombed in the 2009 playoffs).  I think the odds are great that Lee signs with the Yankees, and I think the odds would have been great at resigning him had they traded for him, though I don’t necessarily think those odds would be increased.  Because of that, I’d much rather go into 2011 with a guarantee that Montero is in the organization and hope that they sign Lee than go into 2011 without Montero and still not be guaranteed at re-signing Lee.  Before anyone goes there, the Type A pick the Yankees would have gotten for Lee (had they traded for him and he walked) wouldn’t be close to a replacement for Montero.

Often when we think about the Lee trade that wasn’t, we forget that the Yankees were trading for Cliff Lee the pending free agent.  Just like there is no guarantee now they’ll sign him after the season, there’s no guarantee that had the trade been complete they would have resigned him.  Can you imagine if Jesus Montero, the Yankees best hitting prospect since Derek Jeter had been traded for a 4 month rental?  That would have been a disaster, even with the increased 2010 World Series odds.  Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good (see wonderboy Theo Epstein with Vazquez, Contreras and Pavano), and I think Cashman got lucky that the Mariners backed out of this trade.  Down the line, whether Lee ends up in pinstripes or not, not trading for Cliff Lee will be a blessing for the Yankees.

The Cliff Lee connection

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Cliff Lee pitches in the 2002 AA All Star Game as a member of the Akron Arrows. Credit: AP Photo John Spivey

Since the Rangers downed the Tampa Bay Rays to earn the right to face the Yankees in the ALCS, most of the coverage has focused around Cliff Lee. The Yanks had to beat Lee’s team last year to win the World Series; they almost traded for him three months ago; and they plan to go hard after him this winter when the southpaw hits free agency. It’s a tailor-made situation for a compelling story, and Lee’s story has led sports sections from Arlington to Armonk.

In response to the over-the-top Cliff Lee-Mania, RAB reader Richard Iurilli launched a Twitter phenomenon. “Cliff Lee throws so hard, he can throw a baseball around the world and strike himself out,” he said. The kicker though was was the hashtag: #cliffleefacts. Said Joe Auriemma, “Cliff Lee can win a game of Connect Four in only three moves.” Said Kelsey O’Donnell, “The apocalypse would come if Cliff Lee EVER loses a game.” And on and on it went.

Yet, it’s impossible to talk about the impending American League Championship Series without revisiting July 8, the day Cliff Lee maybe, kinda, sorta almost became a Yankee. In The Post today, Joel Sherman, seemingly the most connected of New York reporters, goes back inside the Cliff Lee negotiations, and for the most part, it’s a story we know well. The Mariners were desperate to pry Justin Smoak from the Rangers, and they either wanted Eduardo Nuñez or Ivan Nova to join Jesus Montero instead of David Adams or were willing to use the Yanks to put the pressure on Texas GM Jon Daniels. Depending upon who you ask, a deal with the Yanks was on the verge of completion. “We had him,” Brian Cashman said to Sherman. “We had a deal in principle pending physicals.”

Sherman sheds some light on the process:

Around 9 p.m. Eastern Time on July 8, Seattle agreed with the Yankeees to accept Montero, Adams and righty Zach McAllister for Lee, and the sides swapped medical info. Around 3 a.m. Zduriencik called Cashman to say Seattle team doctors were concerned about Adams’ right ankle. This confused the Yankees. Adams had been out since injuring his ankle sliding May 23, yet the Mariners kept insisting he had to be included and the Yankees only relented that night.

Seattle’s concerns proved valid, as subsequent tests weeks later revealed a fracture and not a sprain for Adams.
Over the next several hours Seattle asked the Yankees to replace Adams. The Yankees offered touted righty Adam Warren. The Mariners said either Nova or Nunez must be the replacement, which was their initial position a week earlier. Cashman refused, stating the Yankees would not yield significantly more to get Lee for half a season than Philadelphia had given Cleveland to obtain Lee for a season and a half or Seattle had given Philadelphia to get Lee for a season.

Also, the Yankees came to believe Seattle had not shut down conversations with Texas. There are no written rules, but general protocol is that once a deal in principle is reached, then the trading teams go silent with other clubs.

Yankee fans spent the day waiting for the trade to become official on the 9th, and it never did. Now, instead of pitching Game 2 of the ALCS for the Yankees, Lee will face them in Game 3 on Monday night in the Bronx. “So be it,” Cashman said. “If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. We will find out in who has the best team. I have no regrets. I am comfortable with not [completing the trade]. In time we will learn if that was the right thing to do.”

In his 3UP post today, Sherman discussed Lee at length and compared it to the Johan Santana situation. A few years ago, we lobbied hard against a trade that would have sent Phil Hughes along with at least Ian Kennedy and one or two other pieces to the Twins for Johan Santana, but this time around, I was more comfortable with the Lee trade. I can’t speak for Joe or Mike here, but I worried about the Yanks’ blown opportunity. I worried about Lee’s future with another team, and I worried that Jesus Montero might just be a little bit overhyped. After all, even though the magazine ranked him the fourth-best International League prospect this year, Baseball America says his defense is highly suspect. If Montero is only a bat but not a catcher, his future value declines.

Of course, the Yankees have a plan, and they’re going to stick to it. Brian Cashman knows that, as Tyler Kepner noted, when it comes to free agency, the Yanks get their guy. They got Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. To the Yankees, money isn’t an obstacle, and if the only thing that separates them from Cliff Lee is two weeks of the playoffs and a $110-million contract, so be it.

Still, even though Lee won’t take the mound for another four days, his presence looms over this ALCS. He is Texas’ savior, an ace they haven’t had in decades, if ever, and he’s the almost-was for the Yankees. Nearly a member of the team in July, Cliff Lee will once again try to stop the Yankees from winning a World Series for what hopefully will be the last time before he joins them.

Mailbag: Cliff Lee and Cliff Lee

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(Chris O'Meara/AP)

In celebration of Cliff Lee’s series-clinching complete game, we turn to two mailbag questions regarding the connection between him and the Yankees.

WWJMD ask: With a good post-season, can we consider Hughes the #2 starter going into 2011? If so and if Andy returns, wouldn’t it be better to go after a middle of the rotation starter instead of Lee and use the money saved towards the bench and contract extensions?

Do we really need a third veteran free agent starter signed multi-year well into their 30’s? I like Lee but at most on a Halladay-type deal and only if the yankees find a way to cut losses on Burnett (even if it means cutting him or eating his salary through trade). The team needs to start making room for young talent, hopefully by 2012 implementing hughes chamberlain and some of the “B’s” in the rotation. The opportunity cost of having a stale unflexible starting staff is high as seen through the mid-2000’s.

To the Hughes question, I’d say no. Among the current crop of Yankees pitchers there’s a good chance he’ll be second best in 2011. But, because the best pitcher in baseball hits the free agent market, there’s a better chance that he’ll be third best.

The rest of the question, and the entire second question, run counter to what we hear from the most vocal fans. Every day, but especially on days that Lee pitches, we hear clamoring for his presence in pinstripes. He is over 30 and will require a costly contract, but that’s what any team will have to pay. Why not the Yankees?

It’s true that even without Lee the Yankees should have a formidable rotation in 2011. Sabathia will return as the top man, and if Phil Hughes can build on his 2010 he could be an excellent second option. Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett will likely come next. That leaves one spot open for competition. We’d see guys like Ivan Nova, Joba Chamberlain, and even perhaps some of the AAA guys like David Phelps and D.J. Mitchell, get a shot at that last spot. Or, as the first reader suggests, they could sign a mid-rotation arm.

In a recent mailbag we explored alternatives to Cliff Lee and came up empty. Today I’ll throw out one alternative as a mid-rotation arm: Jorge De La Rosa. In the past few years, as he has entered his prime, he has developed as a pitcher. This year he started to throw his changeup more often, and according to pitch type values it has gotten better in each of the last three years. His fastball isn’t great, but he still throws 93, 94, which teams will always find attractive, especially from a left-handed pitcher. He also has a good slider that he breaks out as his third pitch.

Still, he’s no Cliff Lee. Slotting him in behind Sabathia gives the Yankees the kind of rotation they thought they had in 2009. It also affords them some depth, since those guys who otherwise would have competed for a rotation spot will now be stored in the bullpen or in AAA. As we saw this season, and even last, depth can become important mid-season when one guy or another goes on DL. The Yanks should have a few options to replace any injured starter in 2011.

To the point of saving money, why would the Yankees do that? Their No. 1 resource is their capital. The issue of signing bench guys isn’t necessarily money. It’s convincing a bench player to sit while Cano, Jeter, Teixeira, and A-Rod take the field almost every day. Trading for bench guys is the way to go. We’ve seen that work in the past few years. Plus, bench guys aren’t typically expensive. If they are, chances are the Yanks don’t want him on the bench.

The point in the second question about making room for young talent is something the Yankees should certainly consider, but ultimately it shouldn’t be a consideration when making Lee an offer. We’re all hyped about Banuelos, Brackman, and Betances. But we all know, whether we acknowledge it or not, that the Yanks would be extremely lucky to have even one of them work out. Prospects are a crapshoot. Some get hurt, some don’t continue to develop, some flop at the major league level. You can wish on a prospect, but you shouldn’t let one, or three, get in the way of signing baseball’s best pitcher.

Even then, I’m not sure it’s a long-term issue. There is little chance that any of the three is ready before 2012. By that point Andy Pettitte will almost certainly retire. For all we know, Sabathia could opt out and leave (even though he’s indicated that he won’t). Burnett will have just two years left on his deal. Someone could get hurt. There will be spots open in the rotation. There’s no need to pass on Lee just to create another one. If they do that, they could run into the other problem of the 00s: a complete dearth of quality pitchers.

Also, there is a maybe a 0.5 percent chance that Burnett pitches anywhere else next season. You don’t eat $52 million on a guy who can come back and help you next season.

Link Dump: Brown, Berkman, Lee

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Running out the clock on the work day, aren’t you? Here’s some links to help pass the time…

Yankees Sign Breland Brown

Via Baseball America’s minor league transactions, the Yankees have signed outfielder Breland Brown to a minor league deal. Based on what I can find, the 25-year-old hasn’t played in affiliated ball and has just been bouncing around between independent leagues for the last few years. It’s just a minor league depth move, but if nothing else, Brown has a pretty active Twitter account. He’s even got some pics of his contract posted there.

Blast From The Past: Lance Berkman

In honor of his big game yesterday, Baseball America posted a scouting report of Lance Berkman from 1999, when he was the Astros top prospect. Most people don’t realize how dominant of a player he was at Rice, when he hit .431 with a 1.032 slugging percentage during his draft year, scoring 109 runs with 41 homers and 134 runs batted in in a whopping 68 games. Amazing, he was only the second Rice player taken that year before first overall pick Matt Anderson. Anyway, my favorite part of the retro scouting report was when they talked about Puma’s big league debut depending on the status of … wait for it … Derek Bell. Too funny.

Cliff Lee Wants CC Sabathia Money

This one is completely unsurprising, but MLBTR passes along a report indicating that Lee will seek something like the $161M the Yankees gave Sabathia two years ago. There’s no doubt that Lee is every bit as good, if not better than CC was when he hit free agency, but his track record isn’t nearly as long and he’s also two years older. Shooting for Sabathia money is just good business on their part, but I expect him to sign for something well below that.

One less competitor for Cliff Lee

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Via MLBTR, the Tigers will not pursue Cliff Lee or another high-end starting pitcher this winter. Obviously, one less suitor for Lee is good news for the Yankees.

The Tigers have a ton of money coming off the books after this season, just an absurd amount. My quick math has it at $78.975M before buyouts and arbitration raises, but still, that’s a ton. Of course they also have a lot of holes to fill, so they probably think they’re better off spreading the money around rather than unloading a third of it on one starter. Either way, sucks for them, yay for the Yanks.