River Avenue Blues

Yankees 7, Angels 5: Another messy night for the bullpen, but still a fifth straight win

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This game should not have been as close as it was, but sometimes things don’t according to plan, and they didn’t Tuesday night. The Yankees survived a near bullpen collapse to pick up their fifth straight win and seventh win in their last eight games. Remember when Anaheim was a house of horrors? The Yankees have won nine of their last dozen games in LAnaheim. Tuesday’s final score was 7-5.

The fans are happy in Yankee Stadium West. (Presswire)

Two Early Runs
For the fifth time in the last six games, the Yankees banked a first inning run Tuesday night. Luke Voit did the honors with a solo home run to dead center field. Second straight night he started the game with a first inning dinger. With so many important players on the injured list, Voit is far and away the biggest power threat in the lineup right now, and he’s giving the Yankees what they need.

The Yankees cashed in their second run in the second inning. Mike Ford singled to right, Mike Tauchman worked a walk, and Thairo Estrada shot a single to right to load the bases with one out. First career knock for Estrada. After all those years of prospect watching, The Summer of Thairo has finally arrived. Tyler Wade brought a run home with a chopper to short that turned into a force out at second.

Two things about the Wade fielder’s choice. One, defensive wiz Andrelton Simmons had to come in on the ball slightly, and it sure looked like he had time to go home for the force out, especially with the not-so-speedy Ford running. Here’s the (approximate) moment Simmons received the ball:

Yeah, I think Simmons could’ve gone home there and cut the run down. Force play, so no need to worry about the tag, and Ford’s not a burner coming in from third base. Well, whatever. Simmons instead went to second base and tried to start the inning-ending 6-4-3 double play.

And two, Tommy La Stella bobbled the transfer at second and didn’t even attempt the throw to first. Without that, there was a decent chance to complete the double play and get Wade at first base, even with his speed. I hesitate to call Simmons not going home a mistake — he is the best defensive player in baseball and one of the best in history, so I’ll defer to his judgement — but it was a break for the Yankees. They got two breaks on that play counting La Stella’s bobble.

After Brett Gardner’s one-out triple in the third inning went to waste — Gleyber Torres struck out and Ford popped out — I was starting to get those “they’re going to regret not tacking on runs” feelings. It was the third inning! And Chris Stratton was not exactly shutting the Yankees down! What in the world is wrong with me. Anyway, Ford added two insurance runs with his first career dinger in the fifth inning.

That had to feel special. I mean, the first homer always feels special, but I bet it was extra special for Ford. He’s a local kid who grew up a Yankees fan in New Jersey and he spent a long time in the minors after signing as an undrafted free agent in 2013. Ford’s journey to the show was not conventional. He had to earn his way up and even then he still needed some help (injuries) to get an opportunity. Now he has a big league homer to his name. Pretty rad.

Sunday Stroll
There is no doubt the Yankees miss their injured players, including staff ace Luis Severino, but you know what? Four starts (and one relief appearance) into his stint as Severino’s replacement, Domingo German has Luis Severino numbers: 1.75 ERA (2.87 FIP) with 28 strikeouts (28.3%) and eight walks (8.1%) in 25.2 innings. Better than Severino numbers, really. Remember when German walked five batters in five innings in his first start? He’s walked three batters in 20.2 innings since.

Only twice in six innings did the Angels really threaten against German. They started the third inning with back-to-back singles, the second of which did not leave the infield and couldn’t have traveled more than 20 feet from home plate. German rebounded to strike out Kole Calhoun and get Mike Trout to bang into an inning-ending 6-4-3 double play. I, uh, did not see that last part coming. (Trout was called out after replay overturned the safe call.)

A double and an error — German rushed the tag on a chopper up the first base line and flubbed the play — put runners on the corners with one out in the fifth inning. David Fletcher hit a grounder to short, too slow to even attempt the 6-4-3 double play, so the run scored. Just the one run though. German limited the damage. His final line: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K on 99 pitches. Check out his pitch usage Tuesday night:

  • Four-seamer: 29 (three swings and misses)
  • Two-seamer: 19 (zero swings and misses)
  • Curveball: 29 (four swings and misses)
  • Changeup: 22 (two swings and misses)

German threw the kitchen sink at the Angels. Four pitches used regularly. The kitchen sink, but with two mid-90s fastballs and a very high spin breaking ball. Nine swings and misses is on the low side for German but he made up for it with soft contact. This was the 25th time he faced at least ten batters in a game and his 86.5 mph average exit velocity allowed was his six lowest. Pretty cool.

Yes, it’s still very early in season, and no, German has not faced great competition (Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Angels), but he looks so better right now than he did at any point last year. More confident, less deer-in-the-headlights-y, more like he knows he belongs. German’s stuff has always been so good. Now it seems like everything else is starting to come together. He’s been awesome.

(Presswire)

Unnecessarily Interesting
The Yankees kept tacking on runs following Ford’s home run and it’s a good thing they did. Voit walked and Gardner doubled to start the seventh, then Torres singled in a run and Austin Romine brought in another run with a ground out. Voit socked his second home run of the game in the eighth inning, that one an opposite field shot into the right field bleachers. Two solo homers on the night and three in the series. That’ll work.

With German cruising and a nice 7-1 lead, it seemed like the Yankees were heading for a nice easy win. Then Chad Green went and 2019 Chad Greened all over the place. After getting the final out in the seventh, Green loaded the bases with no outs in the eighth. Two singles and a walk. Granted, the singles were well-placed more than well-struck, plus Trout drew the walk and he’s pretty awesome, but still. Even with a 7-1 lead, things got messy.

The good: Green got ahead in the count 1-2 on Justin Bour. Threw three fastballs by him up in the zone, one for a swing-and-miss and the other two for very late foul balls. Clearly, Bour was having trouble catching up to the heat. So what did Green and Romine do? They tried to finish Bour with a splitter. Green threw this 87.3 mph piece of junk …

… and Bour parked it about a third of the way up the right-center bleachers for a grand slam. Bad pitch selection and worse execution. Green has allowed 14 runs and four homers in 7.2 innings this year. During his breakout 2017 season, he allowed 14 runs and four homers in 69 innings. (Last year it was 22 runs and nine homers in 75.2 innings.) My quick late night math has Green with a .395/.465/.763 opponent’s batting line. Yeesh.

Short bullpen or no short bullpen, I have no problem whatsoever with bringing Green into a game with a six-run lead. The Yankees have to get him right and that is a “try to get a reliever right” situation. Clearly though, Green is not right, and he hasn’t been at any point this season. My guess is he winds up on the injured list rather than being sent to Triple-A Scranton. I just don’t see any way a healthy Green is this bad. Injured list is my guess. We’ll see.

Anyway, once the game became unnecessarily interesting, Luis Cessa entered and immediately put the tying run on base. Cool. A strikeout and a double play later, the eighth inning was over. Ex-friggin-hale. Zack Britton needed all of seven pitches to get three routine ground balls to close things out in the ninth. The real save situation came when Cessa had two men on base with no outs in the eighth, but I digress. Closers are for closin’.

Leftovers
Whale of a game for the makeshift 2-3-4-5 hitters: 10-for-17 (.588) with a double, a triple, two homers, seven runs scored, and five runs driven in. Gardner had four hits and was a homer short of the cycle — he is 7-for-10 in two games as the No. 3 hitter — plus Voit (two homers), Torres (two singles), and Ford (single, homer) had two hits each. The struggling DJ LeMahieu went 0-for-6 and saw his season batting line drop from .293/.353/.413 (105 wRC+) to .272/.330/.383 (91 wRC+) in one night. Officially a below-average hitter.

And finally, Voit’s on-base streak is up to 34 games, longest by a Yankee since Derek Jeter’s 36-gamer spanning 2012-13. Voit has a ways to go to get to threaten the franchise record though. Joe DiMaggio had a 74-game on-base streak in 1941, which of course included his record 56-game hitting streak.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Go to MLB.com for the box score and video highlights and ESPN for the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees and Angels are halfway through this four-game series. Lefty CC Sabathia and righty Felix Pena are the scheduled starters for Wednesday night’s game. That’s another 10:07pm ET start. Four more 10pm-ish starts to go on this road trip, including Wednesday.

DotF: Dermis Garcia and Isiah Gilliam carry Tampa to a win

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Got some links and notes to pass along:

  • Both RHP Luis Gil (No. 7) and 1B Dermis Garcia (No. 13) made this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet. “Garcia is a bit of a one-tricky pony, but that one trick—massive raw power—sure is fun to watch when a pitch comes right into his swing path,” says the write-up.
  • With Nationals OF Victor Robles having graduated to the big leagues, Baseball America (subs. req’d) updated their top 100 prospects list, and RHP Jonathan Loaisiga now slots in at No. 100. He’s the only Yankee on the list.
  • MLB.com picked each team’s closer of the future. RHP Luis Gil was their pick for the Yankees. “Gil can hit 101 mph with his four-seam fastball and generates crazy spin rates on his power curveball,” says the write-up. Here’s video of Gil’s last outing.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (8-1 loss to Rochester)

  • LF Trey Amburgey: 0-4, 2 K
  • SS Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K — five homers in 13 games this year after hitting five homers in 118 games with Trenton last year … I’m kinda glad we’re shutting down RAB before I have to start figuring out what’s real and what’s noise with the MLB ball in Triple-A
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 1-3, 1 2B
  • LHP Nestor Cortes: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 3/5 GB/FB — 58 of 91 pitches were strikes (64%)
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 WP, 0/2 GB/FB — 20 of 37 pitches were strikes (54%) … 10/4 K/BB in seven innings, which is better than I would’ve guessed

[Read more…]

Game 23: Not Another Marathon

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(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

Gosh, last night was a grind. Did you stay up for the entire game? I hope not. I did and I regretted it when my alarm went off this morning. Five hits in 14 innings? In a West Coast night game? No one deserves that. Fortunately, the Yankees eked out a win, and they’ve won six of their last seven games.

“Finding a way right now. It’s not easy for us by any means but the guys have been finding a way,” Aaron Boone said to George King following last night’s win. “… A lot of big outings from pitchers and we caught the ball well. Really happy with the way guys are competing and getting after it right now.”

After that game last night, I’m hoping for a bit of a laugher tonight. Score early and often, and cruise to the finish line, you know? I think we all deserve that after last night. After the last two games, really. Sunday was a battle too. Anyway, here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. DH Luke Voit
3. CF Brett Gardner
4. SS Gleyber Torres
5. 1B Mike Ford
6. RF Mike Tauchman
7. C Austin Romine
8. 2B Thairo Estrada
9. LF Tyler Wade

RHP Domingo German

Los Angeles Angels
1. RF Kole Calhoun
2. CF Mike Trout
3. 1B Justin Bour
4. SS Andrelton Simmons
5. DH Albert Pujols
6. LF Brian Goodwin
7. C Kevan Smith
8. 2B Tommy La Stella
9. 3B David Fletcher

RHP Chris Stratton

Another picture perfect evening in Anaheim. Probably. I didn’t bother to check. Tonight’s game will begin at 10:07pm ET and the YES Network will have the broadcast. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Clint Frazier (ankle) has some swelling, but he feels good and is available tonight. Boone held him out of the lineup as a precaution.

Roster Move: As expected, Jonathan Loaisiga was called up earlier today, the Yankees announced. He is available out of the bullpen following last night’s marathon. A big lead and Loaisiga finishing the game would be ideal. Joe Harvey was sent down in a corresponding move.

12 Years of Prospect Watching at RAB

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Montero. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

In six days, we are closing down RAB after covering the Yankees top to bottom for more than 12 years. It was quite a ride. Lot of fun, but also a lot of work, and now that the work outweighs the fun, it’s time to move on. RAB experienced a World Series championship and many really cool moments. I’m grateful.

The RAB era also covered countless minor league prospects. Most of them flamed out, because that’s what prospects do, but a select few broke out and became big league players. Some even did so with the Yankees. I’ve been posting my annual top 30 prospects list since 2007. That’s a lot of words on players who didn’t make it.

I’d say that, for the majority of RAB’s existence, the Yankees were labeled a poor player development team. It wasn’t until recently that they shed that label, but you know what? The Yankees lead baseball in WAR produced by homegrown players since RAB launched in 2007. From the Baseball Gauge:

  1. Yankees: +193.2 WAR
  2. Diamondbacks: +191.6 WAR
  3. Red Sox: +191.0 WAR
  4. Reds: +176.0 WAR
  5. Rockies: +170.3 WAR

Baseball America puts out organizational top 30 prospects lists each year and the Yankees have had 55 different top 30 prospects reach the big leagues since 2007, ten more than any other team. They also lead baseball in pitching WAR from the farm system at +119.6 during that time. The Dodgers are a distant second at +96.7 WAR on the pitching side. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that.

We’ve already looked at what I consider the five most memorable games of the RAB era. Now let’s dip into the minor league scene and recap the last 12+ years in the farm system. Come with me, won’t you?

All-Time RAB No. 1 Prospects
2007: RHP Phil Hughes
2008: RHP Joba Chamberlain
2009: OF Austin Jackson
2010: C Jesus Montero
2011: C Jesus Montero
2012: LHP Manny Banuelos
2013: C Gary Sanchez
2014: C Gary Sanchez
2015: OF Aaron Judge
2016: OF Aaron Judge
2017: IF Gleyber Torres
2018: IF Gleyber Torres
2019: OF Estevan Florial

All-Time RAB No. 30 Prospects
2007: 1B Juan Miranda
2008: RHP Edwar Ramirez
2009: RHP Steven Jackson
2010: RHP Dellin Betances
2011: RHP Craig Heyer
2012: RHP Chase Whitley
2013: LHP Dan Camarena
2014: LHP Cesar Cabral
2015: OF Slade Heathcott
2016: RHP Austin DeCarr
2017: OF Leonardo Molina
2018: RHP Alex Vargas
2019: 1B/3B Dermis Garcia

All-Time RAB No. 10 Prospects
2007: RHP Kevin Whelan
2008: RHP Dellin Betances
2009: LHP Phil Coke
2010: RHP Jose Ramirez
2011: RHP Adam Warren
2012: CF Ravel Santana
2013: RHP Mark Montgomery
2014: LHP Manny Banuelos
2015: 1B/OF Tyler Austin
2016: C Luis Torrens
2017: SS Tyler Wade
2018: SS Thairo Estrada
2019: RHP Luis Medina

Rank prospects long enough and certain spots develop a personality. The No. 1 spot is the top guy, obviously. The No. 10 spot is where you put that second (or sometimes third) tier prospect you feel strongly about. There is a most definitely a difference between being the No. 10 prospect and No. 11 prospect in the organization. I can’t really explain it. When you’re in the top ten, you’re legit. Things start to feel a little iffy after that. Also, the No. 30 spot is usually a choice between several players, none of them great. That spot tends to go to a personal favorite. Maybe the guy with the best chance to be a big leaguer, though not necessarily become a great player.

With the exception of Florial, my most recent No. 1 prospect and still a baseball baby, every one of my No. 1 prospects reached the big leagues. I’m not trying to gloat. The No. 1 guy is usually the easiest to rank. Relative to other prospect rankers, I think I stick to my guns a little more. Plenty of folks jumped off the Sanchez bandwagon in 2014 and many shied away from Judge in 2017. Development is not linear. Gotta give these kids a chance to experience failure and adjust before pulling the plug.

I’m more proud that ten of my No. 10 prospects and seven of my No. 30 prospects reached the big leagues than I am that all of my No. 1 prospects reached the show (save Florial). More than half my No. 30 guys made it! Betances obviously went on to have a significant MLB career, though he also bounced around my rankings for a better part of a decade. Without checking, I have to think Dellin appeared on more RAB top 30 prospects lists than any other player. I ranked him every year from 2007-14 (!).

Anyway, Edwar Ramirez spent a few years in the show, Miranda and Jackson had cups of coffee, Cabral kept getting looks, and Heathcott did this …

… and that was pretty cool. Hughes and Chamberlain helped the Yankees win a World Series title in 2009. Sanchez, Judge, and Torres (and Florial?) will hopefully be part of the next World Series winning Yankees team. As much fun as the highly regarded prospects are — and believe me, they are a blast — there is a certain pleasure in watching those lower ranked prospects reach the big leagues after following their careers and blogging about it along the way.

Ten Best Prospects

  1. 2011 Jesus Montero
  2. 2017 Gleyber Torres
  3. 2008 Joba Chamberlain
  4. 2007 Phil Hughes
  5. 2013 Gary Sanchez
  6. 2016 Aaron Judge
  7. 2015 Luis Severino
  8. 2012 Manny Banuelos
  9. 2017 Clint Frazier
  10. 2007 Jose Tabata

The best prospect and the best player are not necessarily the same thing. Sometimes a prospect who flashes all the right tools and skills doesn’t pan out. Example: Jesus Montero. He was an out of this world great prospect, so much so that this cursed image exists in our gallery:

You can thank Baseball America for that. At his prospect peak in 2011, Montero was lauded as a hitting savant and he’d drawn Frank Thomas comps. He was such a good prospect that if I elected to use multiple years of the same player in these rankings, it would be 2011 Montero in the top spot and 2010 Montero in the second spot. You could dream on his easy opposite field power for days. To wit:

Obviously it never worked out. The Yankees traded Montero during the 2011-12 offseason and he pretty much ate his way out of the big leagues. He turns 30 later this year and seems to be out of baseball after hitting .273/.349/.382 in the Mexico last year.

In terms of pure hype, I think 2007 Hughes takes the cake. Back in those days top pitching prospects received so much hype because not enough people were factoring in attrition and injury rates. These days the prospect world does a much better job of baking risk into the cake, and thus top position players prospects tend to be ranked above top pitching prospects. Hughes didn’t live up to the prospect hype, but he spent more than a decade in the big leagues as a league average starter/really good reliever, and that’s not nothing.

Joba at his prospect peak was better than Hughes at his prospect peak and maybe he was more hyped. He did have that insane run in 2007, remember. Chamberlain was the better prospect because he had a better fastball and because his secondary stuff was just vicious. RAB came into its own during the “Joba should start!” internet wars and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t still curious to know what would’ve happened had the Yankees not jerked him around. That said, Joba did himself no favors by reporting to Spring Training out of shape multiple times.

Anyway, Judge is the best player to come out of the farm system on a rate basis since RAB launched — Robinson Cano debuted before RAB and Brett Gardner has accumulated the most WAR among homegrown Yankees during the RAB era, though Judge has him beat on a per plate appearance basis — but prospect rankers always seemed to keep him at arm’s length because he’s so big and had extreme swing-and-miss tendencies. In hindsight, Baseball America’s top 100 list in 2017 is a hoot:

86. SS Delvin Perez, Cardinals
87. RHP James Kaprielian, Yankees
88. LHP Anthony Banda, Diamondbacks
89. RHP Tyler Beede, Giants
90. OF Aaron Judge, Yankees

That said, ranking Judge cautiously was not unreasonable at the time. Sanchez and Torres had more prospect hype at their peaks because they were up-the-middle players with loud tools. Sanchez basically projected to be a Judge-type hitter at catcher whereas Gleyber had a high-end all-around game and plenty of baseball smarts. Judge is very much a hindsight prospect. If everyone had known what they know now, he would’ve been a top three pick in the draft and the game’s top prospect. During his prospect days though, he was difficult to project.

The final two spots in that top ten are difficult to pin down. 2008 Ian Kennedy and 2013 Mason Williams belong in that conversation, as does 2018 Justus Sheffield. I think Frazier and Tabata are the right guys for the last two spots. Clint had the pedigree as the former high draft pick and Tabata, gosh, it’s easy to forget just how highly regarded he was back in the day. He was a consensus top 30 global prospect who reached Double-A at 19 and Triple-A at 20. Tabata back then is what people wish Florial is now.

Five Biggest Busts

  1. C Jesus Montero
  2. RHP Andrew Brackman
  3. OF Jose Tabata
  4. OF Mason Williams
  5. OF Slade Heathcott

I don’t like dwelling on busts because many times flaming out is treated as a character flaw when it really just boils down to Major League Baseball being extremely difficult, and also players getting hurt sometimes. Montero’s and Tabata’s approaches were not as advanced as they appeared in the minors, Williams and Heathcott had trouble staying healthy, and Brackman was an inexperienced two-sport guy who never could figure out a delivery at his size (6-foot-10). Meh. Some guys make it, most don’t. Learn from the ranking mistakes and move on.

Five Personal Favorites

  1. 3B Miguel Andujar
  2. RHP Ross Ohlendorf
  3. 3B Marcos Vechionacci
  4. RHP Jose Ramirez
  5. RHP Graham Stoneburner

Like everyone else, I develop personal favorites while following the farm system, and sometimes there’s no good reason why it happens either. You fall in love with so many prospects over the years and, given the nature of the beast, most of them never make it, so when one of them turns into Andujar, it feels like a million bucks. I loved (and still love) his insane bat-to-ball stills, his ability to hit anything anywhere, his power potential, and his energy and love for the game. Let’s watch some Andujar highlights, shall we? I miss watching him play.

I was a big Ohlendorf guy. I even bought an OHLENDORF 39 shirt. True story. His fastball moved all over the place (but apparently it didn’t have as much velocity as remember based on the pitch tracking data) and his slider was promising, plus he was a smart dude with a knack for making adjustments. Guys like Ramirez and Stoneburner stood out during their prospect days but would be a dime-a-dozen now. Oh, you throw 96-98 mph with a sharp slider and no command? Get in line.

Vechionacci was pretty much the opposite of Andujar. He could play the hell out of third base but he couldn’t hit much. I kept waiting and waiting and waiting for that big breakout year at the plate and it never came. It wasn’t until his fourth season with Double-A Trenton that he slugged better than .370 while playing at least 100 games. I fell in love with more random prospects over the years than I could possibly count (I thought Ramon Flores would be Michael Brantley, basically), but Andujar is easily at the top of this list for me. He’s in his own tier. After covering the system for 12+ years, sending RAB out with this group of homegrown players is pretty rad.

What’s wrong with Chad Green’s fastball?

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(Steve Ryan/Getty)

Not much has gone right for Chad Green early this season. After emerging as one of the team’s essential bullpen arms over the last two years, a few bad outings have pushed Green down in the pecking order. Unfortunately, it only got worse on Sunday. Up 5-0 against Kansas City, Green was handed a low leverage opportunity to help himself right the ship. After three hitters and no outs recorded, enough was enough. Adam Ottavino eventually allowed those inherited runners to score, but the performance ballooned Green’s ERA to 12.27 in just over seven innings of work.

Green’s problems generally boil down to hard contact and a lack of whiffs, as Bobby wrote about recently. Interestingly, as Bobby noted, hitters have historically been able to clobber Green’s trademark fastball, but only when they actually are able to make contact. As last season wore on, hitters gradually became more successful at putting bat on ball against the pitch, and this season that phenomenon has hit Green like a freight train.

Logically, it makes sense that major league hitters will eventually figure a pitcher out with enough looks, but this still seems weird to me. It’s not like the league suddenly figured out Green threw a ton of fastballs late last season. He’s been doing it for a couple of years now. Perhaps the pitch is simply more hittable now.

A few things that make any given pitch hittable are velocity, spin rate, movement, and location. Let’s see what’s going on with Green’s fastball. It’s his bread and butter, after all, and what made him successful in the first place.

Yikes. His fastball velocity has fallen significantly since last May. Maybe he’s still building up velocity, like many hurlers do early in the year, but that’s still an alarming trend.

Green’s fastball spin rate has dropped, albeit slightly, since 2017. It’s at 2434 RPM this season, down 10 RPM from 2018 and 50 from 2017. Probably within the margin of error, so I don’t think there’s much to make of this. He’s still comfortably above league average in that department. Movement-wise, Green’s fastball has always been pretty straight. Yet, because of his spin, it’s deceptive and has a rising quality (even though that’s physically impossible). Simply put, it just doesn’t drop as much thanks to backspin. And unsurprisingly, his movement on the pitch hasn’t altered. All good news here, at least.

What about location? Green’s never been a command guy, and hasn’t needed to be.

As you can see, Green pours fastballs over the heart of the plate, and that hasn’t changed early this season.

So really, the only thing that has changed is Green’s fastball velocity. Is that really enough to result in this?

I don’t know. I mean, surely a slightly slower fastball makes for a little more contact. But, it’s not like Green has gone from a mid-90s heater to high-80s. It’s still humming in there at 95 miles per hour with great spin to boot.

Maybe it really is just a matter of hitters growing accustomed to Green’s patented offering. It took some time, but perhaps opponents have finally adjusted to Green’s approach. It’s never been a secret that Green was going to attack hitters with the fastball, but even knowing that didn’t hinder his success. That’s a testament to how effective the pitch has been for him historically, as it took a long time for hitters to finally start improving against it.

If Green can make something of his slider or re-introduced splitter, perhaps his fastball can return to its former glory. He’s certainly trying to incorporate those pitches, as his fastball usage has decreased this year (albeit still at a very high 72 percent clip). Still, they aren’t even average options at this time, which ostensibly makes it easier to key in on the fastball.

Last but not least, it’s still really early in the year. Green’s not going to run a 30 percent home run to fly ball rate, .375 BABIP, and 50.9 percent strand rate all season. He’d have to be truly broken to do that. Some regression to the mean must be coming, even if he remains a one-pitch pitcher.

For the time being, it makes sense for Aaron Boone to deploy Green in low leverage situations like Sunday. It’s incredibly frustrating that he couldn’t get the job done then, but those are also the only spots he really deserves at this point. Let him earn his way back into important situations. His fastball is still good enough to get hitters out, but perhaps he needs to work out the kinks in low stress situations. Whether that’s refining command by aiming for the corners a bit more or getting a better feel for his secondary stuff, Green will have to counter the rest of the league’s adjustment to his fastball. Hopefully that’s sooner rather than later, because this bullpen needs help.

Clint Frazier’s breakout and his early season success against breaking balls

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(Presswire)

If there is a silver lining to all these injuries the Yankees have suffered this season, it is Clint Frazier getting an opportunity to play every single game. His own injury problems (oblique in 2017, concussion in 2018) cost him big league time the last two years, and the Yankees initially planned to send him to Triple-A for regular at-bats this year, but injuries forced their hand and Frazier is now hitting in the middle of a their depleted lineup.

“(My confidence is) already high when I wake up in the morning,” Frazier told Brendan Kuty over the weekend. “But when we’re having results and the team is going out there and we’re fighting through things, hopefully it rubs off on everybody because everyone else’s confidence is rubbing off on me right now, too.”

Going into last night’s late West Coast game Frazier was hitting .339/.358/.661 (163 wRC+) with six home runs and a .341 BABIP that isn’t so high that we should expect a big crash at some point. Clint has always had a lightning quick bat and, right now, he is squaring the ball up on the regular:

(Statcast defines Sweet Spot as a batted ball with a launch angle between 8° and 32°. That launch angle range tends to produce the best results.)

Frazier has trimmed his overall strikeout rate from 30.6% with the Yankees in 2017-18 to 20.9% in the early going this year. He hasn’t walked a whole bunch yet (4.5%), but Frazier has a much better than league average 25.2% chase rate, so he’s swinging at the right pitches. Give it time and I expect his walk rate to tick up. It’s not unusual for a young player to sharpen his approach with experience.

“We’ve never questioned the ability or the talent,” Aaron Boone told Kuty. “… He’s come up here and obviously shown to be a really good Major League hitter. The way he controls the strike zone, the way he can impact the ball with his talent and his bat speed, he’s a dangerous man when he walks up to the plate.”

April is an awful time for baseball analysis because everything is a small sample and it’s close to impossible to know what’s legit and what’s noise. What we do know right now is Frazier is having much more success against breaking pitches in the early going this season than the last two years. Here are the numbers against curveballs and sliders:

% AVG (xAVG) SLG (xSLG) wOBA (xwOBA) Whiff Chase EV LA
2017-18 30.3 .231 (.235) .431 (.457) .294 (.309) 41.4% 28.6% 89.5 10.5
2019 38.2 .304 (.285) .696 (.589) .385 (.353) 38.8% 23.1% 93.7 20.0
MLB AVG 28.9 .217 (.215) .375 (.362) .278 (.276) 35.1% 30.1% 87.1 12.1

In the early going Frazier’s actual results and expected results (based on exit velocity and launch angle and all that) against breaking balls are well above the MLB average. When he has swung, he has missed more than average, but he’s not chasing out of the zone and his contact is very good. I don’t buy Frazier (or any player) as a true talent .300 hitter and near .700 slugger against breaking balls. The underlying data is strong though.

Of course, we are not even four weeks into the new season, and this could all be small sample noise. I wish I could give you assurances it is not but I can’t do it. I do know Frazier looks very confident at the plate, and he seems very disciplined in that he is swinging at the right pitches, so that’s good. He is definitely passing the eye test. Clint also has the pedigree as a former high draft pick (fifth overall in 2013) and top prospect.

Another thing we know: Frazier adjusted his setup at the plate this season. Specifically, he worked with hitting coach Marcus Thames to widen his stance in Spring Training, which helps him see the ball longer and let it travel deeper in the zone. Clint’s bat speed allows him to still get those pitches. Here is Frazier’s stance over the years:

A new setup at the plate, as well as improved confidence and the fact Frazier was a slightly above-average producer against breaking balls in his limited big league time the last two years suggests this year’s performance may be for real. This isn’t a terrible hitter against breaking balls suddenly becoming a great hitter against breaking balls. It’s an already good hitter with talent and some mechanical adjustments becoming an even better one.

Because it’s still so early in the season, we have no choice but to take a wait and see approach. Eventually pitchers will adjust to Frazier and find a weakness, and try to exploit it, and it’ll be up to him to adjust back. Perhaps that adjustment will be even more breaking balls because damn, Clint is hammering fastballs (.353 AVG and .588 SLG), and breaking balls are generally more difficult to hit, this year’s results notwithstanding.

For now, Frazier has helped the Yankees stay afloat through all the injuries, and he’s giving the team a reason to keep him in the lineup once everyone gets healthy. Left field is wide open long-term and the Yankees have a highly regarded young player who sure seems to be breaking out. It’s exciting. It would be more exciting without all the injuries, but it is exciting nonetheless. Frazier looks like the impact player he was projected to be when he first joined the organization three years ago.

“He got pushed into a position where we’re counting on him and others, and he’s stepping up, and you have to give him real props. That’s the stuff he lives for,” Brian Cashman said during a recent radio interview. “He’s the one right now that I think people are gonna be careful to pitch around, because he’s got a good mojo going and he feels good about what he’s doing. He knows he’s impacting us, so his confidence is sky-high right now.”

Yankees 4, Angels 3: Gio Urshela carries Yankees to sixth win in seven games

by

The Good Gio. (Presswire)

You know how extra-inning games can be thrilling? This was definitely not that. The Yankees and Angels opened their four-game series with 14 mostly action-less innings Monday night. Neither team generated much offense. The Yankees because they’re hurt, the Angels because they’re not very good. In the end, the Yankees outlasted the Halos and picked up a 4-3 win. They’ve won six of their last seven games. I usually bullet point recap West Coast night games, but I’ll do some full recaps this week since it is RAB’s final week. Just not tonight. Let’s get to it:

  • Two Against Harvey: Matt Harvey went into this start with a 9.64 ERA (5.38 FIP) on the young season, so of course the Yankees made him look like vintage Harvey. Luke Voit hit a solo homer in the first and Kyle Higashioka scored on a Gleyber Torres sacrifice fly in the third, though he would’ve been out by a mile had Jonathan Lucroy handled the throw at the plate. Higashioka was dead to rights. Harvey retired eleven of the final 12 batters he faced. Between this and the Homer Bailey game the other day, the 2019 Yankees have made some washed up hurlers look like they still have something left in the tank lately.
  • Seven Strong For Happ: For the first time in 2019, J.A. Happ did not allow a first inning run(s). He waited until the second inning to give up Lucroy’s two-run homer. To Happ’s credit, he did settle down quite nicely after that, retiring 16 of the 18 batters he faced following the homer. It was easily his best start of the year. Happ again scaled back on his four-seamer (38.2%) and upped his two-seamer (24.8%), so the adjustment stuck. Now he just needs to work on that 2.45 HR/9.
  • 12th Inning Lead: At one point the Yankees went 23 batters between hits Monday night. Gio Urshela singled with two outs in the fourth. Their next hit? Clint Frazier’s leadoff double in the 12th. Goodness. Mike Tauchman moved Clint to third with a ground ball and Urshela brought him home with a sac fly. Hooray! Oh by the way, Frazier jammed his left ankle on a pickoff play at second base and was in obvious pain. He stayed in, taped up his ankle, and limped around noticeably. Great. Just great. I have no idea who the Yankees would’ve put in the outfield if Clint had to come out. Maybe DJ LeMahieu?
  • Blown Save: It was clear Aroldis Chapman was not sharp right out of the gate in the 12th inning. He didn’t have his good fastball on back-to-back days (averaged 97.6 mph) and was middle-middle with everything. A leadoff single, a stolen base, a two-out (and two-strike) hit batsman, and a two-out single allowed the Angels to tie the game in the 12th. Lefty Brian Goodwin had the game-tying single against Chapman. One-run lead with the highest paid closer in baseball history on the mound against the bottom of the lineup, and he didn’t close it out. Shrug.
  • 14th Inning Lead: For real, big shoutout to Lucroy. His sloppy defense helped the Yankees score their second and fourth runs. Torres struck out to start the 14th inning, but the ball got away from Lucroy, and his incredibly routine throw to first base was airmailed. Lobbed it over the bag. Hilarious. Torres reached, advanced to second on a pitch in the dirt (thanks again Lucroy!), and later scored on Urshela’s two-out single. (Kept the right Gio!) The Yankees struck out four times in that 14th inning and I don’t even care. Jonathan Holder, who tossed a perfect 13th inning, intentionally walked the tying on base in the 14th (WHAT) to get to the pitcher’s spot with two outs (oh okay). The Angels found themselves in a bit of a roster pickle after Zack Cozart exited with an injury in the 12th inning. Peter Bourjos had to play second base. Yeah. Anyway, Holder struck out Trevor Cahill to end the game, mercifully.
  • Leftovers: The Yankees had five hits: Voit’s homer, Urshela’s two singles, Frazier’s double, and a Higashioka double. Brett Gardner drew two walks and Mike Ford was intentionally walked twice (!) … one day after Sunday’s disaster, Adam Ottavino bounced back with two scoreless innings Monday. Only 23 pitches too. Tommy Kahnle tossed a scoreless tenth, and Luis Cessa got Albert Pujols to ground out to strand two runners in the 11th … and finally, Voit’s league-leading on-base streak is up to 33 games. It’s the longest by a Yankee since Derek Jeter’s 36-gamer in 2012-13.

Here are the box score and video highlights, updated standings, and our Bullpen Workload page. The Yankees and Angels will be back at it with the second game of his four-game series Tuesday night. Jonathan Loaisiga will be called up to make the spot start in that one because the Yankees want to give their regular starters an extra day of rest and be available out of the bullpen. Domingo German will start on regular rest. (The Yankees shifted gears after the marathon tonight.) Chris Stratton will be on the mound for the Halos. That’s another 10:07pm ET start.


Source: FanGraphs