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River Ave. Blues » Howie Kendrick

Sunday Mini Mailbag: Gleyber, Rotation, Infield

January 7, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Happy Sunday, RAB readers. I sincerely hope you’re keeping warm as you read this. As I write this, I’m wearing two hoodies and multiple pairs of socks. A touch dramatic? Sure, but I’m okay with it. To invoke a common metaphor, the Hot Stove season seems to have frozen along with the temperatures. Yeah, the Yankees signed Jace Peterson to a minor league deal, but that’ll keep the stove about as warm as lighting up a single piece of newspaper would. To cope with this, I turned to social media to see if anyone had any burning questions (I promise I’ll stop it now). Here are the results.

Gleyber. (Yankees Magazine)

Harsh asks: How should Yankees fans temper expectations for Gleyber Torres if he does start at 2B (presumably after 2 weeks)?

The answers should be self-evident, but after what an expectation-shattering year 2017 was, we may need to remind ourselves of a few things. If the Yankees do call Torres up in a timely manner, he’ll be making his debut well short of his 22nd birthday; he just turned 21 in December. As such, he’ll be one of the youngest players in the Majors, as he has been at almost every level he’s been at in his career; he’s never been more than 2.8 years younger than his competition and was 6.7 years younger than his counterparts at AAA in 2017. That alone should be enough to temper expectations. On top of that, he is also coming off of an injury and still learning a new position, and would be doing so at the highest level possible. It’s hard enough to succeed when you already know how to play a position, let alone when you’re trying to master a new one AND learn how to be a Major League quality hitter at the same time. Chances are that Torres will be a good player, but it might not happen right away.

Harsh (also) asks: Why are/were the Yankees looking at SP when they have 5 capable starters (Sevy, Tanaka, Sonny, CC, Montgomery), Chad Green coming to ST as a starter, and a couple of guys in AAA (Adams and Sheffield)?

Say it with me, everyone: You can never have too much pitching. I’m a big fan of the Yankee rotation, but to play Devil’s Advocate for a moment, there are some question marks. What if Masahiro Tanaka keeps giving up homers at a high clip? What if 2017 was an extreme outlier or Luis Severino? What if CC Sabathia falls off a cliff, as old guys are prone to doing? What if Sonny Gray gets hurt again and Jordan Montgomery takes a step back? Every team has questions about their rotations that are similar to these ones. Additionally, the Yankees may have concerns about the workloads of their pitchers and another starter could help mitigate that. While Chad Green is preparing as a starter, I think that’s mostly for show and a fallback option, just like it was for Adam Warren when he would come to camp prepped for starting. Green’s best role is likely as a long reliever/swingman, with the ability to make an emergency spot start if needed.

As for Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield, they’re great depth and I’m sure we’ll see them–and their upsides–at some point in 2018, but if they’re major parts of the rotation this year, something may have gone wrong. Getting another starter allows the Yankees to be more patient with Adams and Sheffield and bring them up when their time is right, not just when the team’s time is right.

Rich asks: 2018 Yankees as Star Wars characters?

In the interest of  brevity, I’m going to limit this to one character and one player, the first thought that I had: David Robertson as BB-8. Both are relatively ‘compact’ and both are very good at getting those around them out of tight spots.
(Elsa/Getty)

Nick asks: Is it possible the limited prospect sacrifice for Stanton jaded Yankee fans into thinking one doesn’t need to sacrifice quality pieces to bring back value? The outrage over dealing a Clint Frazier for an average to above average MLB arm seems silly.

Part of me agrees wholeheartedly with Nick’s first assertion. Consciously or not, we’ve got the robbery that was the Giancarlo Stanton trade in our minds and we’ve forgotten what a real MLB trade looks like. Then again, we were also told that the Yankees made and were rejected on offers for Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer, which is a ‘nice’ dose of reality. As to Nick’s second point, again, my gut is to agree. The thought of trading a prospect for a need shouldn’t scare anyone off. But as I laid out a few weeks ago, not all trade targets are created equally. I’m fine with trading Frazier in the right deal, but it has to be the right deal. Despite what I said above, the Yankees do have five capable starters and could go without trading for a sixth. Holding out on trading Frazier until you make sure you’re getting back talent and control seems most prudent.

Sam asks: Given where the Yankees are today what combo do you start at 3B/2B on opening day?

As the team is currently constituted, I might bite the bullet and roll with Miguel Andujar at third and a platoon of Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes at second, with the latter two submitting to Gleyber as soon as he’s ready. With Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and a hopefully healthy Greg Bird, the Yankees can absorb a bit of lost offense at those positions. Wade and Andujar have offensive upside–even if it’s in different ways–and Toe is a competent defender who can put together good at bats. Wade is also a good defender. This combo should be able to hold down the fort. If not, a veteran who can play either position, like Stephen Drew or Howie Kendrick, might be worth a shot. He .could then slide to a bench role with minimal fuss or long-term damage once a solution–Torres–presented itself.

The Yankees are likely taking the long view with the infield. My guess is that they’re going to go hard after Manny Machado when he is a free agent and they won’t want anyone blocking third. This will shift Torres to second with Didi Gregorius still  at shortstop. That means that Andujar probably won’t be with the organization long term. It’s possible (probable?)  that if the Yankees sign Machado, Andujar will be traded.

Rob, a Mets fan asks: Will the Mets ever win anything in my lifetime? Plz advise

No.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Aaron Judge, CC Sabathia, Chad Green, Clint Frazier, David Robertson, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Howie Kendrick, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Ronald Torreyes, Sonny Gray, Stephen Drew, Tyler Wade

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Howie Kendrick

December 20, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Patrick McDermott/Getty)
(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

The Yankees have traded away their starting second and third basemen within the last two weeks, and while they have a bevy of young infielders on the cusp of the show, a contender may not want to go with two rookies on the infield. The Yankees have put a lot of faith in young players the last year or two, but things are different now. Last year they were talking about being a team in transition. Now they’re clearly a World Series contender.

A veteran infielder, someone who can help bridge the gap to the Gleyber Torreses and Miguel Andujars of the system, could be on the Yankees’ shopping list this winter. Will they break the bank for an infielder? Almost certainly not given the plan to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold. A lower cost free agent would be ideal, if such a thing exists. One possible candidate: Howie Kendrick. Let’s see whether the 34-year-old is a potential fit.

Offensive Performance

Well, one thing is for sure, playing for the Yankees would hurt Kendrick’s numbers. He’s a career .346/.411/.481 (137 OPS+) hitter in 61 career games against the Yankees, including .311/.378/.459 (122 OPS+) at the new Yankee Stadium. Too bad signing with the Yankees means he wouldn’t get to face Yankees pitching.

Anyway, Kendrick hit .315/.368/.475 (121 wRC+) with nine home runs in 334 plate appearances for the Phillies and Nationals this past season, making it his best offensive season in several years. A year ago he put up a .255/.326/.366 (90 wRC+) batting line with eight homers in 543 plate appearances with the Dodgers. Some quick numbers:

2016 BABIP and wOBA: .302 and .309
2016 xBABIP and xwOBA: .325 and .341

2017 BABIP and wOBA: .382 and .368
2017 xBABIP and xwOBA: .332 and .334

In 2016, Kendrick underperformed his (theoretical) expected BABIP and wOBA based on his batted ball data. In 2017, he outperformed his (theoretical) expected BABIP and wOBA based on his batted ball data. And, coincidentally enough, Kendrick’s expected BABIP and wOBA were similar both years. Aside from a little spike late last season, his ground ball rates as well as his hard and soft contact rates have held pretty steady.

howie-kendrick-contact-rates

Baseball can be weird. One year a player won’t be rewarded for the quality of his contract, then the next he’ll be rewarded too much for the quality of his contact, if that makes sense. That’s kinda what happened to Kendrick. There’s reason to believe he’s not really as good as he was in 2017 nor as bad as he was in 2016.

The real Kendrick is probably somewhere in the middle, likely close to his .278/.342/.408 (102 wRC+) combined line in 877 plate appearances from 2016-17. Of course, he is 34 years old now, and things tend to start going south at that age. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects a .275/.334/.414 (98 wRC+) line from Kendrick next season, so again more or less league average.

Defensive Performance

Kendrick’s days of playing second base full-time are over. He hasn’t been a regular second baseman in two years now. The Dodgers moved him into more of a utility role two years ago, when he played mostly left field but also some third base. That continued this past season as well. Here’s a quick breakdown of Kendrick’s defensive assignments from 2016-17:

  • First Base: 15 games (+0 DRS)
  • Second Base: 47 games (-3 DRS)
  • Third Base: 17 games ( -1 DRS)
  • Left Field: 156 games (-4 DRS)
  • Right Field: 3 games (+0 DRS)

Kendrick is my favorite kind of versatile. He can play lots of different positions but he can’t play any of them well. Is that really a positive attribute, that a player can hurt you at many more positions instead of one? If the Yankees consider Kendrick for one of their infield positions, I think they have to look at him at third base, not second. And, when time comes for Gleyber or Andujar or whoever, the Yankees could move Kendrick into more of a supersub role.

Injury History

Hamstring injuries have been a thing for Kendrick throughout his career. He missed time with hamstring issues in 2008 (ten weeks total), 2011 (two weeks), 2015 (six weeks), and 2017 (two weeks). Broken fingers (2007), offseason elbow cleanup surgery (2012), a hyper-extended knee (2013), a calf strain (2016), and an oblique strain (2016) have also sidelined him over the years. Kendrick has been in the league for 12 years now and he’s had plenty of bumps and bruises. I suppose the good news is he’s only had one surgery, and it was a relatively minor procedure in 2012.

Contract Estimates

This is only the second time Kendrick has been a free agent. He signed an extension with the Angels way back when, and when that expired, he re-upped with the Dodgers for two years and $20M. That is the contract that just expired, and he had to wait until February 4th to sign it. Here are two contract estimates:

  • MLBTR: Two years, $12M.
  • FanGraphs: Two years, $16M.

Given their payroll situation — the Yankees have about $25M to spend under the luxury tax threshold, though some of that has to be set aside for midseason additions — I would be surprised if the Yankees spent $8M for an infielder next year. Not with all the young guys coming. Would they spend $6M? Eh, maybe. Would they guaranteed someone like Kendrick two years? I don’t think so. Gleyber, Andujar, Tyler Wade … they’re all coming.

Unless you’re a reliever, the free agent market is moving very slowly this offseason, so I wonder whether Kendrick will have to wait until right before Spring Training to sign again. If that happens, the Yankees might be able to swoop in with a low lost one-year contract ($4M?) and convince Kendrick to come to New York, accept a third base/super utility role, and have a shot at his first career ring.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

I think so. For sure. It has to make sense financially under the luxury tax threshold, of course, but I think Kendrick would fit nicely as a stopgap infielder. Put him at third — or hold your nose and put him at second if Andujar blows everyone away in Spring Training — until the kids start to force the issue, then adjust. Kendrick can cover multiple positions and he can still hit a bit. What else are the Yankees looking for, exactly?

Maybe I’m wrong, but I have a really tough time believing the Yankees will go into next season with two neophyte infielders after spending so much time and effort upgrading the roster. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll go bonkers and sign Mike Moustakas or trade for Jason Kipnis. I think they’ll look for a bargain free agent for depth and Kendrick could be an option, assuming the free agent market continues to move at a slow pace.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Howie Kendrick, Scouting The Market

Heyman: Yanks have called Angels about Howie Kendrick

November 14, 2014 by Mike 121 Comments

(Stephen Dunn/Getty)
(Stephen Dunn/Getty)

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams that have called the Angels to ask about second baseman Howie Kendrick. The Halos aren’t necessarily shopping him, but they are open to offers and will consider moving him if they can get the right (i.e. young and cheap) pitcher in return. They open to moving third baseman David Freese as well.

The Angels are bumping up against the $189M luxury tax threshold and owner Arte Moreno has made it clear in recent years he does not intend to go over. Trading Kendrick and/or Freese would be as much about clearing payroll as it would be improving the pitching staff. Kendrick is owed $9.5M next year while Freese is projected to earn $6.3M through arbitration. Both will be free agents after the 2015 season. Here’s a piece of what I wrote about Kendrick in last week’s mailbag:

Trading for Kendrick would automatically add a win or two to the Yankees’ season total because he flat out destroys them whenever they play the Angels. At least it feels like it would. The 31-year-old Kendrick hit .293/.347/.397 (115 wRC+) with seven homers this past season and has hit .292/.336/.410 (111 wRC+) over the last three years. He’s also solidly above-average in the field and has been for years according to the various defensive stats. Kendrick isn’t the multi-time batting champ most expected him to become when he was in the minors (seriously, look at his MiLB stats) but he’s a damn good all-around second baseman.

The Yankees aren’t exactly in position to give away young pitching considering the injury concerns with their rotation, though that doesn’t automatically mean a trade for Kendrick is impossible. The Angels might like, say, David Phelps and/or Bryan Mitchell more than most, and it’s early enough in the offseason that New York could replace the pitching depth via free agency.

Kendrick is a very good player and would be an enormous upgrade at second base, perhaps along the lines of three or four wins over the current in-house options. (Martin Prado would be at third in this scenario.) It wouldn’t be a long-term commitment — Rob Refsnyder would still have a clear path to the long-term second base job — and it would take basically a total collapse in 2015 for the Yankees to not make Kendrick the qualifying offer next offseason. He’s an excellent fit for the roster and the team’s needs. I just don’t know if the Yankees and Angels match up well for a trade.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Howie Kendrick

Mailbag: Kendrick, Stauffer, Rangers, Braun, Bird

November 6, 2014 by Mike 267 Comments

Ben is planning to post his obligatory offseason wish list tomorrow morning (Mike’s, Joe’s), in the usual mailbag slot. So my options were either post the mailbag a day early or not at all this week. A day early it is. Got seven questions this week. The best way to send us questions or links or comments or anything is with the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Kendrick. (Jeff Gross/Getty)
Kendrick. (Jeff Gross/Getty)

Jacob asks: Should the Yanks go after Howie Kendrick going on the idea a proven player is better to have than an unknown (Rob Refsnyder)? What might it take to get him?

Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Angels are likely to trade either Kendrick or David Freese to free up money, with Kendrick more likely to go because his $9.5M salary in 2015 is higher than Freese’s projected $6.3M salary through arbitration. (Both will be free agents after next season.) The Yankees are not one of the four teams on Kendrick’s limited no-trade clause, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith. Rosenthal says the Halos want pitching, surprise surprise.

Trading for Kendrick would automatically add a win or two to the Yankees’ season total because he flat out destroys them whenever they play the Angels. At least it feels like it would. The 31-year-old Kendrick hit .293/.347/.397 (115 wRC+) with seven homers this past season and has hit .292/.336/.410 (111 wRC+) over the last three years. He’s also solidly above-average in the field and has been for years according to the various defensive stats. Kendrick isn’t the multi-time batting champ most expected him to become when he was in the minors (seriously, look at his MiLB stats) but he’s a damn good all-around second baseman.

Kendrick would obviously be a big boost to the Yankees but they don’t have the pitching to trade for him, not unless the Halos really like Shane Greene, David Phelps, or Bryan Mitchell. The Yankees aren’t exactly in position to give away arms either given all the injury concerns in the rotation. I’d take Kendrick on my team in a heartbeat and worry about Refsnyder later. New York doesn’t matchup well for a trade though, especially since other second base needy teams like the Nationals, Blue Jays, and Athletics have a few young arms to spare.

Travis asks: Is Tim Stauffer an under the radar fit for the Yankees roster?

I’ve always liked Stauffer for no apparent reason. Just one of those guys I like, you know? The Padres selected Stauffer with the fourth overall pick in 2003, agreed to give him a $2.9M bonus, but reduced it to only $750k after a pre-signing physical found something in his shoulder that required surgery. Stauffer reached MLB in 2005 but didn’t stick until 2009. He has a 3.37 ERA (3.77 FIP) in 480.1 innings across 56 starts and 109 relief appearances since.

Stauffer. (Denis Poroy/Getty)
Stauffer. (Denis Poroy/Getty)

Stauffer, 32, had a 3.50 ERA (3.02 FIP) in 64.1 swingman innings this year with excellent strikeout (9.37 K/9 and 24.5 K%) and homer (0.56 HR/9 and 7.4 HR/FB%) rates, but mediocre walk (3.22 BB/9 and 8.4 BB%) and ground ball (41.9%) rates. His homer and grounder rates were way down from the 0.81 HR/9 (10.8 HR/FB%) and 52.2 GB% he posted from 2010-13, which is a little fishy. Stauffer’s a five-pitch guy even in relief, using low-90s two and four-seamers to set up his mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup, and mid-70s curveball.

Unsurprisingly, Stauffer told Corey Brock he would like to start in 2015, though he did say he is “pretty open to different roles.” With Vidal Nuno in Arizona and Adam Warren settled into a short relief role, Phelps is the Yankees swingman by default. Chances are they will need him in the rotation at some point next year, so bringing in a veteran like Stauffer to fill the last spot in the bullpen would make some sense. I have no idea what it would take so sign him, but obviously they shouldn’t pay much for a swingman. One year, $1M tops?

Dustin asks: What are the chances the Rangers deal either Jurickson Profar or Rougned Odor this offseason, would either be usable at short, and what do you think the prospect price might be?

I don’t think the Rangers will deal either this winter, honestly. Profar missed the entire 2014 season after tearing muscles in his shoulder in  Spring Training and having numerous setbacks, including one in late-September. GM Jon Daniels told Evan Grant he hopes Profar will be cleared to resume baseball activity by January, which doesn’t sound too promising. The Rangers can’t feel too great about his status right now.

Odor had an okay rookie season at age 20, hitting .259/.297/.402 (90 wRC+) with iffy defense in 114 games after skipping over Triple-A. He’s their starting second baseman at this moment. Infielder Luis Sardinas, 21, just had a ~75 wRC+ split between Double-A and Triple-A, so he’s probably not a starting MLB option at this point. With Profar’s status uncertain and no other in-house alternative, Odor probably isn’t available unless it’s a big overpay at this point. Overpaying for unproven 20-year-olds is no way to do business.

David asks: Any idea one way or the other if the Yankees would consider Rudy Jaramillo as their hitting coach? I had heard nothing but praise for the guy for years, then he was dumped by the Cubs and hasn’t been heard from since. Did he officially retire, or could he be an option?

Jaramillo is essentially the Lou Mazzone of hitting coaches. Mazzone was the pitching coach for all those great Braves teams with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, but the bloom came off the roster when he joined the Orioles and wasn’t surrounded by Hall of Famers anymore. Jaramillo made his name with the 1995-2009 Rangers, who had Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, among others. Then he went to the Cubs in 2010 and couldn’t magically make their hitters better.

Anyway, Jaramillo was fired by the Cubs in June 2012 and hasn’t been heard from since. He’s going to turn 64 later this month and may have decided it was simply time to retire. There hasn’t been anything linking the Yankees to Jaramillo, and remember, he was in Chicago with pitching coaching Larry Rothschild and special assistant Jim Hendry. The Bombers have some firsthand knowledge about him as a person and as a coach.

Braun. (Tom Lynn/Getty)
Braun. (Tom Lynn/Getty)

Arad asks: Would you take on Ryan Braun and his contract right now? His 5/105 doesn’t kick in until 2016 but he’s still a highly productive hitter who could fit well in this lineup.

I definitely would not and it’s not because of the performance-enhancing drug stuff. He has a chronic nerve issue in his right thumb/hand — he had surgery just last month — that has affected his offense because he simply can’t hold the bat properly. Braun hit a still productive .266/.324/.453 (114 wRC+) with 19 homers in 135 games this year, but that’s a far cry from the monster he was at his peak. He turns 31 in two weeks and has been dealing with this thumb problem for two seasons now. There’s $107M left on his contract through 2020 and that sucker is all but guaranteed to be nothing but decline years. This is exactly the kind of contract the Yankees need to avoid.

Dan asks: If he had managed to stay healthy while catching, how would Greg Bird rate as a prospect?

Very highly, even if he was only an average defensive catcher. Bird is a good first base prospect but he’d be a great catching prospect with that offense. I don’t think I’d rate him ahead of Luis Severino or Aaron Judge in the system, it really depends on how much I believed in his glove, but he’d probably jump over Gary Sanchez and into the third spot. Of course, if Bird was still catching, he probably wouldn’t be hitting like this. Catching is brutal, man.

Patrick asks: I was thinking about how NHL free agency is so different than MLB because of so many players signing on the first day. Has that happened at all in MLB in recent memory?

It’s never happened like that in MLB. Free agency in the NHL, NFL, and to a lesser extent the NBA are like this because they’re salary cap leagues. Players in the NFL, NFL, and NBA sign on the first day because they don’t want to be left on the board when teams have already used up their cap space. There are no such concerns in MLB — teams have their payroll limits of course, but there’s no hard cap — so free agents can wait. Besides, the MLB offseason would be boring as hell if all the top free agents signed on the first day.

Filed Under: Mailbag Tagged With: Howie Kendrick, Ryan Braun, Tim Stauffer

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