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Scouting The Trade Market: Tom Gorzelanny

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Late last night we learned that the Yankees aren’t having any “hi-level” trade talks about a starting pitcher at the moment, a vague little term that could mean lots of things. Are they not having serious discussions about any pitchers, or are they not having discussions about a high-end pitcher? Could be either depending on how you interpret the report.

Anyway, we all know the Yankees are indeed in the market for a starting pitcher and perhaps a lefty reliever as well, so let’s take a look at a player that could potentially fill either role: Tom Gorzelanny of the Nationals. Washington has surprising rotation depth, with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman fronting a group that also includes Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone. They’re also dipping their toe in the C.J. Wilson/Mark Buehrle end of the free agent pool, which would further push Gorzelanny out of the picture. Let’s break down the 29-year-old southpaw’s credentials…

The Pros

  • A four-pitch lefty, both of Gorzelanny’s fastballs (two- and four-seamer) sat right around 88-89 mph as a starter before jumping to 91-93 out of the bullpen in the second half. He also uses a changeup and slider — both in the low-80’s — pretty regularly.
  • Gorzelanny was pretty dynamite after moving to relief this summer, striking out one-third of the 27 left-handed batters he faced while surrendering just three singles and two walks. In a small sample (190 plate appearances), he’s held batters to a .283 wOBA with 20.5% strikeouts and 10.5% walks while coming out of the bullpen.
  • He’s done some fine work against same-side hitters throughout his career, holding them to a .294 wOBA with 24.6% strikeouts (9.11 K/9) and 7.9% walks (2.93 BB/9). This past season, Gorzelanny set career bests in strikeout rate (8.14 K/9 and 21.3% of batters faced) and walk rate (2.83 BB/9 and 7.4% of batters faced).
  • During his time with the Cubs (mid-2009 through 2010), Gorzelanny managed to provide 2.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR of value in 174.2 IP, the best stretch of his career since a strong 2007 campaign. His pitching coach in Chicago was current Yankees’ pitching coach Larry Rothschild, so there’s some familiarity there.

The Cons

  • Gorzelanny has been on the DL twice in his career, both times for elbow inflammation (26 days in 2011 and 31 days in 2006). He does have a knack for the fluke injury though; he’s dealt with six different hand/arm injuries as a result of being hit by batted balls since 2006. Six times! None required a DL trip, but sheesh, the guy is a magnet for comebackers.
  • He’s solid against lefties and as a reliever, but the numbers against right-handed batters and as a starter are not all that impressive. Opposite-hand batters have tagged him for a .354 wOBA with a 15.6% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate during his career, and as a starter those numbers are .346, 17.1%, and 9.9%, respectively.
  • Gorzelanny is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher, getting a ground ball just 36.2% of the time this past season and 41.1% of the time in his career. That number against lefties isn’t any better (43.9%), and he’s been rather homer prone as a big leaguer (exactly 1.0 HR/9).

Gorzelanny is a candidate to be non-tendered next month (deadline is December 12th), and MLBTR’s projections peg him for a $2.8M salary in 2012, his third time through arbitration before becoming a free agent after the season. He cleared waivers last August, indicating that no team (including the Yankees) thought he was worth the pro-rated portion of his $2.1M salary. Acquiring a player in the offseason is different than acquiring the player during the season though, only because there’s a bit more flexibility about how the available payroll space is distributed. Just because no team claimed Gorzelanny off waivers in August doesn’t mean a team wouldn’t be willing to trade for him now.

These non-tender/trade guys typically don’t bring much back in a trade; their teams are just trying to get anything back rather than nothing. Both Andrew Miller and Zach Duke were traded for fringy Triple-A relievers before being non-tendered last offseason, two fringy Triple-A relievers that have already been let go by the Marlins and Pirates, respectively. Gorzelanny is better than either Miller or Duke, so maybe the Triple-A reliever will have to be slightly less fringy, but I think you get the point. We’re not talking about a multiple prospect package here.

Ultimately, we’re likely looking at a lefty reliever, because I’m not sure Gorzelanny can make it work as a starter in the AL East. This situation is somewhat similar to what I wrote about Chris Volstad in the mailbag two weeks ago; Gorzelanny does make some sense for the Yankees as a lefty reliever/emergency starter, but the Yankees don’t make sense for Gorzelanny. If they don’t trade for him and he hits the free agent market as a non-tender, then chances are he’ll be able to find a starting job somewhere, or at least find a better opportunity to win a starting rotation spot. It’s a question of whether or not the Yankees will want to give up something to get him in a trade, then pay him close to $3M to work out of the bullpen exclusively for the first time in his life.

A quick look at Tom Gorzelanny

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(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Earlier this morning a rumor surfaced that the Cubs are shopping left-hander Tom Gorzelanny, somewhat surprising after he managed 2.3 fWAR in just 136.1 innings in 2010. The Yankees are perpetually looking for pitching, especially since Andy Pettitte is on the brink of retirement and Cliff Lee may or may not be getting a monster contract offer from the Nationals. I’m not sure the two teams match up for a trade (Chicago’s looking for a lefty hitting first baseman, and not someone like Juan Miranda), so this may all be for naught. Either way, let’s explore.

Gorzelanny, 28, broke in with the Pirates a few years ago and was pretty good for them in 2007 (2.9 fWAR, 201.2 IP, 4.24 FIP), but he struggled in 2008 (6.35 FIP) and was shipped to the Cubs for nothing spectacular in 2009. His fine 2010 season featured a good amount of strikeouts (7.86 K/9) and an above average amount of swings-and-misses (9.7%), an important underlying skill. Gorz is generally a ground ball guy as well, sitting between 40.3% and 40.8% over the last three years, though he can definitely be a little homer prone (one for every 7.2 IP over the last three years).

A three-pitch guy (FB, SL, CH) with a fastball right around 90, Gorzelanny actually isn’t very effective against lefties, holding them to a .309 wOBA in his career and .351 this year, though the 2010 number is inflated by five triples (two doubles, four homers). That seems rather fluky since a) Wrigley’s not a triples park, and b) he’s given up six triples to lefties his entire career. I wouldn’t expect the triples thing to continue. As far as his contract goes, he’s arbitration eligible for the second time as a Super Two, meaning Gorz is still under team control for another three years. After earning $800,000 this season, he’ll get a bump to $2M or so.

Gorzelanny would certainly give the Yankees some pitching depth, but he wouldn’t be anything more than a back-end arm. Even in the two best years of his career (2007 and 2010), he still walked close to three-and-a-half batters per nine unintentionally. That combined with homer tendencies and the lack of dominance against lefties hold him back, but there’s nothing wrong with a solid starter in the fifth spot. Also, Gorzelanny would be a) too expensive for LOOGY work, and b) again, he’s not great against same side batters.

I wouldn’t be opposed to picking Gorzelanny up as sort of a Plan B or C option, but I wouldn’t expect great things and I wouldn’t give up a ton either. Like I said, I don’t see the two teams matching up for a deal given Chicago’s needs.