Craig Kimbrel Archives - River Avenue Blues

Someone Needs to Sign Craig Kimbrel. Why Not the Yankees?

March 23, 2019 by Bobby Montano

Added Benefit: Shaving That Beard (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

The Yankees will open their season in five days against the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx. In a normal offseason, there would be no more prize free agents still available, but this is not one of those offseasons. Instead, Craig Kimbrel remains without a home, less than a week before camp breaks for the regular season, and until extremely recently, there has been almost zero indication that even a single team is interested in signing him. That should change – and it should be the Yankees that finally do.

Let me be clear about something up front: I am not under any illusion that this is plausible or even realistic. I am aware that signing Kimbrel would require paying him an annual salary of millions of dollars. I am aware of the luxury tax, and where the Yankees’ payroll currently sits. I am aware that those factors have kept Kimbrel off the Yanks’ radar for almost six months. But I am also aware that there is a convincing case to be made that the Yankees should sign Craig Kimbrel. Let’s walk through it.

He is Extremely, Extremely Good

Baseball writers were once famous for arguing that [Insert One-Hit Wonder Reliever Here] was the “Next Mariano” during Rivera’s long career, to the point that it became somewhat of a running joke among fans. That was for good reason – there was and will always be only one Mariano, and most of the anointed relievers returned to ignominy shortly thereafter. Not Craig Kimbrel, though.

Kimbrel’s stats through 532.2 career innings are simply breathtaking. He’s fanned 14.6 batters per 19 innings pitched, which amounts to 41.6% of the batters he’s ever faced when considered another way. His 1.91 ERA adjusts to a ridiculous 47 ERA- and is supported by a 1.96 FIP. He’s stranded over 84% of inherited runners on base. He’s been worth over 20 bWAR and recorded 333 saves in 367 chances. That’s 90%. He’s done all this over 9 years, a true rarity among elite relief pitchers not named Mo.

That remained true last year, despite his “advanced” age of 31, too. In 62.1 innings with Boston, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA and struck out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. His critics will tell you that he walked too many batters (12%) and that he always has; they are right but miss the forest for the trees here. It’s hardly a stretch to say that he’s the 2^nd best reliever in modern history, if not all-time, behind Mariano. He’d make any bullpen better – even the already-dominant one in New York.

Bullpen Uncertainty

This brings us to the next point: even though the Yankees should have one of the best bullpens in league history in 2019, the reality is that we just don’t know what will happen. Just look at last year, when the same was true. The Yankees still needed to add Zack Britton at the deadline due to a slate of unexpected midsummer injuries. Already, the Yanks are without Dellin Betances because of injury, and while that’s expected to be a brief IL stint, you can never be too sure.

Adding Kimbrel would help bolster the bullpen even more, making it nearly impossible for the Yanks to be without at least one dominant back-end arm in the bullpen. In the best case scenario where Betances gets healthy immediately and everyone else remains so, then the Yankees simply have an embarrassment of riches in the ‘pen. That would be okay with me too.

Free Agent Outlook

This spring has seen an unprecedented number of elite players sign extensions, with players electing to take guaranteed money now rather than risk another weak free agent class. Players already under contract but with opt-outs, like Aroldis Chapman, are likely not to utilize them – even if they remain effective.

In other words, that means that fewer and fewer elite players will see the market in the coming years. This same argument applied – but more aptly, it must be said – to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper as well, but it’s somehow even more apparent now than it was a few weeks ago. The Yankees are in a window of contention, and they should not waste it by not signing the very best available players. Kimbrel is one of those.

Cost Certainty Going Forward

The Yankees have smartly locked up both Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino and are likely to pursue similar extensions for players like Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as they approach their money-making arbitration years. Given the current state of extensions – where players are frequently signing contracts for less than they’d expect in arbitration, let alone the open market – it is likely that any extension for those players will be team-friendly.

Beyond that, the Yanks only have $51.26 million locked up for 2022 per Cot’s Contracts. That’s not a lot of long-term money, with the only big contract being Stanton’s. The Yanks just don’t have much long-term money tied up, and with fewer big-ticket free agents on the horizon and teams holding all of the negotiation leverage in extension talks, it’s likely to stay that way. Signing Kimbrel wouldn’t much compromise that future flexibility and would have the added benefit of improving the team now.

It Would Deal a Blow to Boston

Kimbrel, of course, has spent the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Boston doesn’t seem all that motivated to sign him right now, but their bullpen will likely be the one weakness on their team. That means that they may swoop in at the eleventh hour and make a compelling offer or that they’re hoping for his price to drop to where they’re comfortable – an outcome which does grow more likely each day he goes unsigned.

Stealing away Kimbrel would prevent that from happening, taking away the one constant from the Sox bullpen from last year and make their bullpen a true weak spot heading into 2019. In a division race that figures to be extremely close, it always makes sense to weaken your rival if you can.

The Yanks Haven’t Won the ALE Since 2012

The Yankees haven’t won the AL East since the 2012 season seven years ago. Their three postseason appearances since (2015, 2017 and 2018) all began with the Wild Card Game being played in the Bronx. They’re 2-1 in those games, and the 2017 game, in particular, is a classic, but I think everyone would prefer a guaranteed berth in the ALDS rather than playing another do-or-die matchup to begin the playoffs. That’s especially true amid a true championship window: You don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Even as two-thirds of teams around the league try to lose and most divisions are completely uncompetitive, the Yanks have the misfortune of sharing theirs with Boston, who, in case you forgot, won 108 games and the World Series last year. The AL East is Boston’s right now, and the Yankees should stop at nothing to take it back – even if that means stealing Boston’s closer.

*****

Again, if I was being generous, I’d give this a 0.01% chance of being possible. But that’s not really the point here. Craig Kimbrel is one of the very best relievers in the history of baseball and he is unsigned less than a week from Opening Day. Fans and analysts of every team in the league could do a similar exercise for why their preferred team should sign him, and eventually, someone will (right now it looks like the Braves or Brewers). Why shouldn’t it be the Yankees?

Kimbrel off the board: Padres trade closer to Red Sox

November 13, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to multiple reports, the Padres have traded closer Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox for four prospects, most notably outfielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra. MLB.com has them ranked as the 25th and 76th best prospects in baseball, respectively. Both clubs have since announced the deal.

The Yankees tried hard to acquire Kimbrel at the trade deadline, reporting offering top shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and others for Kimbrel and second baseman Jedd Gyorko (and the rest of Gyorko’s big contract). There have been no indications the two sides would revisit the deal this winter, but it seemed like a possibility.

Brian Cashman said the Yankees are “open to anything” multiple times at the GM Meetings last week, so much so that closer Andrew Miller’s name has popped up in trade rumors. There’s been speculation they could trade Miller, then replace him with someone like Kimbrel or a trade for another high-end reliever.

Anyway, the Yankees remain set in the late innings with Miller and Dellin Betances. Justin Wilson is a pretty good third option as well. The bullpen certainly isn’t a priority, but there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Second base and the rotation remain the biggest needs.

2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Friday

July 31, 2015 by Mike 4,941 Comments

Today’s the day. Specifically, 4pm ET is the time. Teams have until 4pm ET today to make non-waiver trades, which means there figures to be a flurry of activity in the next few hours even though big names like Johnny Cueto, David Price, and Troy Tulowitzki have already been moved. The Yankees made a relatively minor trade yesterday, sending Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez to the Mariners for Dustin Ackley.

On Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week we learned the Yankees are in the market for pitching help, both starters and relievers, but they’re not willing to give up their top prospects. They’ve been connected to all sorts of pitchers the last few days but those pitchers keep getting traded elsewhere. Hopefully they reel one or two in today, preferably a starter. They really need rotation help. We’ll keep tabs on all of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, as usual.

4:37pm ET: The Yankees were not only willing to include Jorge Mateo in a Craig Kimbrel trade, they also offered to take back Jedd Gyorko and his disaster contract. They never got an answer from the Padres, apparently. [Heyman]
3:53pm ET: The Yankees are expected to stand pat at the deadline. Weak, if true. [Nightengale]
3:28pm ET: The Yankees told the Padres they were willing to trade Jorge Mateo for Craig Kimbrel, but San Diego hasn’t responded. The assumption is Kimbrel is going elsewhere. [Rosenthal, Sherman]
3:22pm ET: Once again, the Yankees and Padres have “no traction” for a Craig Kimbrel trade. They have had “no talks” recently. [Rosenthal, Sherman]
3:02pm ET: Should the Craig Kimbrel deal not happen, the Yankees won’t work out a smaller trade involving Joaquin Benoit and Ian Kennedy. [Sherman]
2:05pm ET: In addition to Jorge Mateo, the Padres would also want a pitcher back from the Yankees for Craig Kimbrel. [Sweeny Murti]
1:56pm ET: The Yankees believe the Padres are working on a bigger trade involving Craig Kimbrel. Apparently San Diego will not trade Kimbrel to New York unless Jorge Mateo is in the deal. [Sherman]
12:33pm ET: Apparently talks with the Padres for Craig Kimbrel broke down yesterday and have not been revived. They haven’t talked today. That’s why the Yankees are looking at guys like Carter Capps. [Rosenthal, Olney]
12:21pm ET: The Yankees are the team in the “hottest” pursuit of Craig Kimbrel. It sure seems like the plan is to add another elite reliever. [Rosenthal]
11:00am ET: The Marlins have coveted Greg Bird and would probably ask for him in a potential Carter Capps trade. I can’t see that happening given the Yankees’ reluctance to trade their close to MLB top prospects. [Joe Frisaro]
10:56am ET: Although the Yankees did indeed check in, a trade for Aroldis Chapman is “not likely” to happen. Womp womp. That would have been fun. [Heyman]
10:36am ET: The Yankees don’t like the idea of trading Jorge Mateo for a reliever, even one as good as Craig Kimbrel. If they do trade Mateo, they’re more likely to do so for a starting pitcher or everyday position player. [Sher man]
10:12am ET: The Yankees continue to look for rotation help but feel “doubtful.” They believe Severino, Adam Warren, and Bryan Mitchell could hold down the fort in the second half if necessary. [Sherman]
9:53am ET: The Yankees would consider trading Jorge Mateo but not top prospects closer to MLB like Aaron Judge and Luis Severino. That makes sense, I guess. Also, if they are willing to trade Mateo, they could seek more in return from the Padres than just Craig Kimbrel. It would also open doors to other deals. [Sher man]
9:51am ET: The Yankees are talking to the Marlins about setup man Carter Capps, the guy with the jumpy delivery. That would be fun to watch, if nothing else. [Stark, Heyman]
9:44am ET: The Yankees are one of five teams “aggressively” pursuing Aroldis Chapman, who would take over as closer. This all sounds like posturing — the price is too high for Kimbrel so we’ll say we’re in on Chapman, the Yankees aren’t offering enough for Kimbrel so we’ll get the Astros involved, etc. [Bob Nightengale]
9:31am ET: The Yankees and Padres worked overnight on a Craig Kimbrel trade that would send a “good” prospect to San Diego with New York taking on all of the $28M or so left on Kimbrel’s contract. The Padres are looking for a young shortstop and have sought Jorge Mateo, who is supposedly off limits. Other clubs, specifically the Astros, are talking to the Padres about Kimbrel as well. [Rosenthal, Stark, Heyman, Buster Olney]
9:30am ET: The Yankees remain interested in both Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, but the prices are high. They want to add an impact pitcher however they can, and adding a reliever would allow them to more easily put Adam Warren in the rotation. [Joel Sherman, Ken Rosenthal, Jayson Stark]
The Yankees are one of several teams in pursuit of Yovani Gallardo, who they faced last night. Gallardo didn’t pitch too well last night but he’s had a strong season overall. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Giants are also in on Gallardo, though San Francisco may be out of the picture after acquiring Mike Leake late last night. [Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Wednesday

July 29, 2015 by Mike 2,969 Comments

Just three days left now. The 2015 non-waiver trade deadline is this Friday at 4pm ET, and while the Yankees have not yet made any moves, I’m sure they will at some point in the next few days. Pitching is a bit of an issue — I’d rather not see Chris Capuano make another spot start — and second base could use an upgrade as well. Maybe another righty bat too.

On Monday and Tuesday we learned the Yankees are engaged in the pitching market, both starters and relievers. They had conversations with the Reds about Johnny Cueto before he was traded to the Royals, and they were also in the hunt for Ben Zobrist before he joined Cueto in Kansas City. Final offers for Cole Hamels are reportedly due today as well. We’ll keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here.

7:04pm ET: The Mat Latos trade from earlier is currently on hold because of someone’s medicals. Not necessarily Latos’. So he could, in fact, still be an option for the Yankees. [Wittenmyer]
4:33pm ET: The Yankees will indeed talk to the Tigers about David Price. They remain unwilling to part with top prospects — the Phillies against asked about Aaron Judge and Luis Severino — but I’m sure at least part of that is just posturing. [Heyman]
4:31pm ET: The Phillies had a scout watching Ivan Nova on Monday. The Yankees did discuss Cueto with the Reds during Johnny Cueto talks, so it stands to reason he would be available for Cole Hamels as well. [Mark Feinsand]
3:32pm ET: The Tigers called teams today to tell them they are “rebooting” and willing to listen on David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and others. I certainly expect the Yankees to make a run at Price. [Stark]
2:56pm ET: If the Phillies do indeed trade Cole Hamels, it is unlikely to happen today. Any trade would have to wait until Thursday or even Friday as the Phillies mull over offers. [Jayson Stark]
2:23pm ET: The Padres requested shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo in trade talks about Craig Kimbrel, but the Yankees said no. New York is willing to eat the entire $28M left on Kimbrel’s contract, but they won’t surrender top prospects. [Jon Heyman]
11:24pm ET: Mat Latos is apparently off the board. The Marlins are reportedly trading the right-hander (and others) to the Dodgers for prospects. Earlier this week we heard the Yankees had some interest in Latos. [Gordon Wittenmyer]
9:30am ET: The White Sox still have not given any indication they will trade Jeff Samardzija. They Yankees have had their eye on him for a few weeks now. The ChiSox are now only 3.5 games back of a wildcard spot, so they might hold on to Samardzija and go for it, knowing they’ll get at least a draft pick for him after the season. [Jerry Crasnick]
The Reds are fielding offers for Aroldis Chapman but are not devoted to trading him because he’s under team control next season. They moved Cueto because they were going to lose him to free agency. The Yankees are said to be open to adding another high-end reliever. [Buster Olney]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Tuesday

July 28, 2015 by Mike 2,087 Comments

We are now just four days away from the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline. The Yankees stretched their AL East lead to seven games with last night’s win — FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 93.8% — but they’re in no position to coast. Ivan Nova left last night’s start with “arm fatigue,” reinforcing the team’s need for pitching help. They could also use a new second baseman and maybe a righty bench bat.

On Monday we learned … well … not much we didn’t already know. The Yankees are in on just about every pitcher, starters and relievers, and they remain interested in Ben Zobrist. Possible bullpen target Tyler Clippard was traded to the Mets as well. Oh, and Troy Tulowitzki was traded to the Blue Jays last night. How about that? We’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. It really feels like a deal could happen at any moment now.

2:31pm ET: Ben Zobrist is heading to the Royals for two pitching prospects. That is really disappointing. He would have been a massive upgrade at second base.
2:21pm ET: The Yankees and Rockies never seriously engaged in Troy Tulowitzki trade talks. The combination of cost (both prospects and dollars) and injury risk was not particularly appealing to the Yankees. [Joel Sherman]
2:10pm ET: The Athletics are “deep” in Ben Zobrist trade talks and he is expected to move soon. It’s unclear where he will end up, but the Yankees have been connected to him for weeks. Zobrist makes a ton of sense for the Bombers and pretty much every other team in MLB. [Jane Lee]
12:29pm ET: The Phillies are asking teams for their “best” offers for Cole Hamels by Wednesday. That makes sense, Hamels is scheduled to pitch Thursday and they probably want to deal him before then. His stock can only go down following the no-hitter. [Jayson Stark]
9:30pm ET: Craig Kimbrel‘s name has indeed popped up in trade talks with the Padres. There was nothing more than speculation connecting the Yankees to Kimbrel prior to this. The Yankees insist they will not trade their top prospects and apparently that stance will have to change to get Kimbrel. [Jon Heyman]
The Yankees and several other clubs are “waiting to hear” whether the Tigers will make David Price available. Detroit lost for the seventh time in eleven games since the All-Star break yesterday, though reportedly they’re going to wait a few days before deciding on a course of action. [Buster Olney]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Scouting The Trade Market: San Diego Padres

July 28, 2015 by Mike 114 Comments

No team had a busier offseason than the Padres, who, under new GM A.J. Preller, made a handful of blockbuster trades and one big free agent signing. It didn’t work. The club comes into today with a 47-52 record and sub-5.0% postseason odds according to FanGraphs. I’m sure Preller was instructed by ownership to turn things around quick, and he tried valiantly, but it didn’t work.

So now the Padres are sellers and reportedly listening on everyone, including the guys they just picked up this winter. Looking at their roster, there is no untouchable. No Sonny Gray or Chris Sale type, the token “one great player we can build around going forward.” Preller & Co. are said to be listening on everyone and hoping to shed payroll and replenish a farm system that was gutted just a few months ago. Let’s see if any of San Diego’s players fit with the Yankees.

RHP Joaquin Benoit

The Yankees have had a bunch of interest in Benoit in recent years, including targeting him at last summer’s trade deadline as well as during the 2013 Winter Meetings, when he was a free agent. Benoit just turned 38 over the weekend and he has a 2.27 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 43.2 innings this year. His ground ball rate (47.2%) is way up but his strikeout (23.2%), walk (9.5%), and homer (1.03 HR/9) numbers have all taken turns for the worse.

Benoit’s stuff is fine, he still sits in the mid-90s with a swing-and-miss changeup, though his location has been off this year and the results have merely been very good, not great. He’s owed roughly $3.1M the rest of the season with an $8M option for next year ($1.5M buyout), so he’s affordable and can be considered a rental. Heck, if Benoit pitches well, his team could either pick up the option and keep him or pick it up and trade him. Minimal risk.

What Would It Take?: Steve Cishek was just traded for a Double-A reliever, though Cishek was having a really rough season. It could take an organizational top ten prospect to get Benoit like it did to get Francisco Rodriguez a few years ago, especially given his reputation as a late-inning guy who can close or set up. I don’t think it’ll be a pure salary dump trade even with the scary strikeout, walk, and homer trends.

RHPs Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy & Tyson Ross

The Padres have four starting pitchers with real trade value, including these three guys. Kennedy will be a free agent after the season, Cashner will be a free agent after next season, and Ross will be a free agent after 2017. They have different styles too — Kennedy’s a kitchen sink/command guy, Cashner is a hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi type, and Ross is a fastball/slider Michael Pineda type. There’s a little something for everyone in this group. Here are their stats so far this season:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	RHP wOBA	LHB wOBA
Cashner	116.2	3.93	3.77	20.6%	7.1%	47.7%	1.00	.278	.380
Kennedy	96.1	4.58	5.25	21.7%	6.8%	38.4%	2.06	.384	.358
Ross	122.2	3.45	2.75	25.2%	10.9%	63.3%	0.22	.273	.328

Kennedy is clearly having the worst season of the three — to be fair, he missed the start of the season with a hamstring issue and has a 2.83 ERA (4.41 FIP) in his last ten starts — which means he would also come the cheapest. Cashner is having a strong year despite getting crushed by lefties, though he also has a scary injury history. He’s thrown more than 125 innings in a season just once (175 innings in 2013), and that’s between MLB and the minors.

Ross is clearly the most desirable of the three between his results and two remaining years of team control. He also turned 28 a few weeks ago and is the youngest of the three. The concerns with Ross are theoretical more than anything. (Well, aside from his MLB leading 57 walks.) He throws a frickin’ ton of sliders, 46.2% this year after 41.2% last year, and his delivery is not exactly pretty. Check it out:

Not textbook! Between the ugly delivery and all those sliders, many expect Ross to break down at some point. It doesn’t help that he had Tommy John surgery in college, shoulder strains in 2008 and 2009, and elbow strains in 2010 and 2014. Every pitcher is an injury risk, some moreso than others, and Ross seems like a guy who might carry more risk than most. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not worth acquiring, he is quite good, it’s just something to keep in mind.

What Would It Take?: We’re dealing with three different pitchers here. Kennedy is a low-end rental — a guy like Mike Leake has more trade value given his year-to-year consistency. Low-end rental starters usually go for two low-end prospects. The Dodgers traded two rookie ball guys for Roberto Hernandez last year, for example.

Cashner has the extra year of team control but also a) the scary injury history (lots of shoulder and elbow problems), and b) high-end stuff that screams ace should he ever puts it together. At this point it seems like Cashner won’t ever be an ace though, just an effective pitcher who leaves you wanting more. Think Edwin Jackson. Jackson was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox in 2010 (one year before free agency, like Cashner) for two organizational top ten prospects (Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg). That seems like a decent reference point for Cashner.

Ross has two and a half years of team control remaining and he’s very good, a No. 2 type starter. Not many guys like that get traded these days. Ubaldo Jimenez went from the Rockies to the Indians two and a half years prior to free agency and that seems like a decent comp — Ross now and Jimenez then both have good stuff, walk a bunch of batters, and flirt with ace-hood. The Tribe gave up their No. 2 prospect (Alex White), No. 4 prospect (Drew Pomeranz), No. 9 prospect (Joe Gardner), and a non-top 30 prospect (Matt McBride) for Ubaldo. Not all No. 2 and 4 and whatever prospects are made equal, but you get the point. Ross won’t come cheap.

2B Jedd Gyorko

Two years ago Gyorko put up a solid .249/.301/.444 (111 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers, earning him a sixth place finish in a stacked NL Rookie of the Year class. The Padres believed in into the right-handed pop and signed Gyorko to a six-year, $35M extension after the season. He has hit .212/.276/.333 (76 wRC+) with 15 homers since then, and San Diego shipped him to Triple-A a few weeks ago. (He’s since been called back up.) Gyorko’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball the last two years.

It is no surprise then that Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Padres are shopping the 26-year-old Gyorko hard. There is still roughly $33M left on his contract through 2019 with a $1M buyout of his $13M option for 2020, and they want out of that contract. Gyorko does offer some versatility, having played a bunch of second and third base in his career, but his batted ball profile shows his line drive and grounder rates are moving the wrong direction:

The contract means this is not a simple change of scenery deal. You can’t bring in Gyorko, trying him out for a year or two, then non-tender him if it doesn’t work out. You’re locked for another four seasons after this one. There’s no such thing as “taking a flier” on a dude owed more than $33M over the next four years. That’s a long-term commitment and you have to be sure the player is salvageable. I’m not sure Gyorko is.

What Would It Take?: Gosh, I’m not sure. Cameron Maybin, another guy the Padres locked up after one good year, was traded this offseason with two years and $16M left on his deal (half-a-Gyorko!), but he was nothing more than a throw-in to even out salary in a larger trade. I have to think Gyorko is a salary dump at this point. Take on the money and give up a fringe prospect or two in return. And remember, the luxury tax means his $33M contract is effectively $49.5M (!) to the Yankees.

RHP Craig Kimbrel

The Padres acquired Kimbrel literally hours before the first game of the 2015 season and now they’re looking to move him to restock the farm system and shed salary. He’s owed roughly $27.5M through 2017 with a $13M club option ($1M buyout) for 2018, which is more than a reasonable for a reliever of his caliber when you consider what Andrew Miller and David Robertson fetched this past offseason.

Kimbrel, 27, has a 2.75 ERA (2.48 FIP) in 39.1 innings this year, which is both excellent and not as good as his work from 2011-14 (1.51 ERA and 1.52 FIP in 268.1 innings). His walk (9.5%) and grounder (47.1%) rates are right in line with the last few years while his strikeout (34.8%) and homer (0.69 HR/9) have taken a step back (42.0 K% and 0.40 HR/9 from 2011-14). But again, his strikeout and homer numbers are still awesome, he’s just not the guy he was the last few years.

“You don’t see the easy gas you used to see. He used to just overmatch hitters, and it’s not quite that easy for him,” said a scout to Buster Olney (subs. req’d) recently. Kimbrel’s fastball velocity is actually a career-high (97.3 mph), but hitters have been able to do more damage this year (.269 wOBA) than last year (.209 wOBA) or the year before (.222 wOBA). He’s starting from an extremely high baseline, remember. There’s no shame in going from the best reliever in the world to merely being a top five bullpener.

What Would It Take?: Not many elite relievers get traded these days, and Kimbrel’s trade in April doesn’t help us much because the Braves attached him to Melvin Upton Jr.’s disaster contract. Even with his relatively slight decline this year, Kimbrel is still a dominant closer signed to a below-market deal, so anything short of a top prospect or three won’t get it done. The Braves got a top 50 prospect — Matt Wisler, who was ranked right next to Luis Severino in Baseball America’s top 100 list before the season — for Kimbrel in April even with Upton attached. Taking on the salary and giving up a fringe prospect or two in return isn’t happening. Kimbrel’s good.

RHP James Shields

Shields is the fourth of the four starters I mentioned earlier, though unlike Cashner, Kennedy, and Ross, his value is hurt by his back-loaded contract. He’s making only $10M this season with $21M annual salaries from 2016-18, plus a $2M buyout of his $16M option for 2019. Not ideal for a 33-year-old who averaged 223 innings per year from 2007-14!

The move to a big ballpark in the NL has not helped Shields, who has a 3.77 ERA (4.12 FIP) in 126.2 innings this year. He’s actually striking batters out at a career high rate (26.9%) and getting the same ol’ number of ground balls (45.2%), but his walk rate (8.8%) is a career-high and his homer rate (1.42 HR/9) is through the roof. Shields has always been homer prone, but not this homer prone.

Going under the hood a bit, Shields has lost a mile-an-hour off his fastball this year, and it now averages 91.4 mph. That’s not horrible, he’s never been a big velocity guy anyway, but it is a red flag given his age and workload. Also, lefties have absolutely annihilated him, putting up a .285/.367/.537 (.389 wOBA) batting line. This is a guy who has historically had a reverse split because of his all-world changeup. Now batters of the opposite hand are crushing him.

It’s not all bad though. Shields is certainly familiar with the AL East — the ballparks, the hitters, all that — and he’s been through postseason races, so the transition should theoretically be a little easier. Shields seems like the type who could age gracefully since he’s always located well and never been a blow you away type. Other than that though, a subpar year at his age with that much money left on his contract is sorta scary.

What What Would It Take?: Jon Heyman says the Padres are “pushing hard” to trade Shields, again because they want to clear payroll and pile up prospects. Shields is a special case without similar trades we can reference — a former high-end starter (former as in just last year) with three years left on his contract at huge dollars. Who was the last guy like that get traded? We’re out of luck here. I’m sure San Diego wants to dump the contract, but I don’t think they’re going to just give Shields away either.

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The Padres are also listening to offers for Justin Upton, and as much as a big bat like that would help the Yankees, they don’t have a spot for another outfielder, not unless someone gets hurt between now and the trade deadline. San Diego has other spare parts like Yangervis Solarte and Clint Barmes — don’t laugh, Barmes is hitting .311/.382/.492 (144 wRC+) against lefties and would be an upgrade over Brendan Ryan — who could make sense for New York, but they wouldn’t be difference-makers. Just depth. Guys like Ross and Cashner and Kimbrel could really impact a postseason race.

Sherman: Yankees were not interested in Kimbrel plus Upton package

April 13, 2015 by Mike 58 Comments

After an offseason of blockbuster trades, the Padres managed to squeeze in one last mega-trade hours before the Cardinals and Cubs opened the season last Sunday night. San Diego GM A.J. Preller acquired all-world closer Craig Kimbrel and ~~B.J.~~ Melvin Upton Jr. from the Braves for the superfluous Carlos Quentin and Cameron Maybin, top prospect Matt Wisler, secondary prospect Jordan Paroubeck, and the 41st overall pick in the draft. It was a doozy.

In a nutshell, Atlanta used arguably their best remaining trade chip as a way to unload the last three years of Upton’s disaster contract. Even after taking on Quentin’s and Maybin’s bad deals, the Braves saved about $56.25M over the next three seasons. (Who knows if their traditionally stingy ownership group will let them reinvest that money though.) On top of that they got a great prospect in Wisler, an okay prospect in Paroubeck, and that 41st pick. Considering their commitment to rebuilding, this was a trade Atlanta had to make.

According to Joel Sherman, the Braves tried to sell many teams on a Kimbrel/Upton package during the offseason, but found no takers. He says the Yankees were one of the teams to decline the offer. I’m not sure what the Yankees equivalent of the Padres’ trade package would be — the Yanks have bad contracts, but they’re much worse than Quentin’s and Maybin’s — but Wisler and Luis Severino were ranked 34th and 35th on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list this spring, respectively. The Yankees don’t have a draft pick to trade but could have offered international bonus space instead.

Kimbrel is elite. Best reliever in the game. Add him to the Andrew Miller/Dellin Betances duo and forget it, the game would be over after the fifth inning. Upton would have been totally pointless though, especially since the Yankees re-signed Chris Young so early in the offseason. All Upton would do is tie down a roster spot — I’m not even sure whose spot he’s take — and eat a big chunk of payroll (remember the luxury tax!). The Yankees would end up taking on a ton of money and trading away arguably their best prospect to bolster the bullpen, which is already a strength.

As much as Kimbrel would help the Yankees (or any other team), I totally understand why the club passed. Spending significant resources to acquire a new closer doesn’t seem like it would be worth the upgrade when there are so many other spots on the roster in need of help. The Yankees have enough bad contracts, and as good as Kimbrel is, he’s not someone who will push the team into the postseason himself. If they’re going to trade top prospects and take on a ton of money, they should do it for workhorse starter or a middle of the order bat, not a one-inning reliever.