With less than six weeks remaining until the start of Spring Training, the Yankees are (allegedly) content to kick-off the season with second and third manned by some combination of Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes, and Thairo Estrada. I am more than a bit skeptical, largely for the reasons that Mike laid out here, and will continue to operate under the assumption that acquiring a veteran infielder is on the team’s to-do list. And David Freese – who has been involved in trade rumors since last year’s trade deadline – checks an awful lot of boxes for the Yankees.

Offensive Performance

Freese’s offense has been shockingly consistent (if not downright metronomic) over the last half-decade. Take a look:

There are certainly some fluctuations in walks, strikeouts, and his performance against lefties, but the bottom line has been eerily similar in each of the last five seasons. That level of consistency extends through most everything else, including his batted ball profile. However, he did stop pulling the ball last season, posting a career-low pull percentage of 25.8%, after settling between 33.4% and 38.1% in the five prior seasons. And that 25.8% mark was the third-lowest among the 144 players that qualified for the batting title last year.

What, if anything, does this mean? Here’s the discrepancy visualized:

Freese has always hit most of his home runs either to center or the opposite field, and last year was actually a minor exception, as half of his home runs were to left or left-center (depending upon the categorization). And, perhaps more importantly, his exit velocity has been fairly steady, checking in at 89.1 MPH in 2015, 91.1 in 2016, and 88.9 last year. Last year’s dip tied into the lack of pulled balls could be a sign of something for a player that’ll be 35 on April 28 – but he was the same player as always in 2017.

Defensive Performance

Freese’s defensive metrics have been all over the place these last five years (using the same sample as his offensive profile), but they have been surprisingly stout at the hot corner over the last two years:

• 2013: -14 DRS, -16.5 UZR
• 2014: -9 DRS, 0.6 UZR
• 2015: -2 DRS, 0.3 UZR
• 2016: +5 DRS, 2.7 UZR
• 2017: +8 DRS, 3.1 UZR

The numbers paint a picture of a player that is improving every year, which is strange for a player in his mid-30s, but the most interesting aspect of this may be how he’s improved. From 2013 through 2015, the range portion of UZR painted him as a statue, whereas the error portion saw him as sure-handed; that has flipped over the last two years, and he now looks like a range-y fielder with a propensity for making errors (though, his fielding percentages are remarkably consistent). Regardless, Freese has been an average-ish or better fielder by both metrics in each of the last three years.

Freese also offers a tiny bit of versatility, having played 377.1 innings at first base. 341.1 of those innings came in 2016, when he graded out at -1 DRS and 0.0 UZR. That’s not much to go by, but some positional flexibility is better than none.

Injury History

Unfortunately, getting hurt is another aspect of Freese’s consistency. He missed at least three consecutive weeks with various injuries in 2013, 2014, and 2015, and just under three weeks with a hamstring injury last year. There might be a slight silver lining, in that all of his injuries have been to different body parts – but he’s had some form of surgery on both of his legs and broken bones in both hands … and he’ll be 35 in April.

Contract Status

Freese is in the second year of a 2-year, $11 MM deal, and is owed $4.25 MM in 2018; he also a team option for $6 MM in 2019 (with a $500,000 buyout). His luxury tax hit would be $5.5 MM.

What Would it Take?

Freese is a soon-to-be 35-year-old rental, so the price shouldn’t be all that high. He’s a perfectly adequate big league third baseman, to be sure – but that sort of player doesn’t generally fetch a high return. There are plenty of comparable trade scenarios from the last twelve months:

• The Tigers dealt Ian Kinsler to the Angels for their 20th and 24th ranked prospects (per MLB.com).
• Brandon Phillips was dealt twice last year (once in February and again at the August waiver deadline), and both times for similarly uninspiring returns.
• Howie Kendrick was dealt to the Nationals for their 18th-best prospect and pool money.
• Eduardo Nunez was dealt to the Red Sox for their 18th-best prospect and a lottery ticket.
• Neil Walker was traded to the Brewers for a PTBNL that turned into a middling relief prospect, and he stands out as the best player of the bunch (you can make a joke about the Mets here).

If any of this is indicative of what the Pirates can expect for Freese, then it seems as though the Yankees wouldn’t have to give up much of anything. Yes, some of those trades were for half-season rentals, but (1) teams often pay a premium at the deadline, and (2) the Yankees system is better than the systems involved in these deals. For the sake of comparison, MLB.com currently has Hoy Jun Park as the team’s 18th best prospect, with Domingo German, Dermis Garcia, Ben Heller, Billy McKinney, and Donny Sands comprising the next five.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

Definitely. Freese adequately fills a position of need, has a low luxury tax number, adds a pinch of versatility, and shouldn’t cost all that much in talent. The expiring contract means that he doesn’t hurt the cap going forward, and the reasonably priced team option means that he could have value to the team beyond 2018 (both as a potential bench player and a trade chip). Freese’s injury history is disconcerting, but he’s been healthy enough to appear in 120-plus games in each of the last six years – and that should be good enough for the Yankees.

As the offseason winds down, teams are currently in bargain hunting mode trying to find that last piece or two to round out their roster. The Yankees have grabbed low-cost veterans like Eric Chavez, Brian Roberts, and Raul Ibanez at this point of the offseason in recent years. They weren’t counting on them for huge impact, just quality depth.

The Yankees have already announced their list of non-roster Spring Training invitees, but the roster building doesn’t end there. The team can still add players and may indeed make a minor pickup or two in the nine days between now and the open of camp. Veteran third baseman David Freese remains unsigned, and with Greg Bird now out for the season, the Yankees could use corner infield depth. Is Freese a potential fit for that role? Let’s look.

The Offense

Freese, 33 in April, has been rather consistent the last three years, putting up a wRC+ in the 105-110 range each season from 2013-15. Both his BABIP (.321) and strikeout rate (22.4%) have held fairly steady these last few years, but his walk rate is trending down (9.0% to 7.4% to 6.6%) while his ISO (.119 to .123 to .163) is trending up. Here are his platoon splits from 2013-15:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	BABIP	BB%	K%	GB%	FB%	Soft%	Hard%
vs. RHP	1,127	.257/.321/.375	100	.327	6.7%	24.0%	54.2%	24.8%	14.9%	36.2%
vs. LHP	375	.268/.349/.451	127	.303	10.7%	17.9%	48.7%	28.7%	14.7%	37.4%

Freese is a right-handed hitter, as you may have guessed from the splits. He’s also a ground ball hitter, which explains the higher than league average BABIP and generally underwhelming ISO. Ground balls sneak through for hits more often than fly balls, but they rarely go for extra bases.

Last season Freese put up a .257/.323/.420 (110 wRC+) line overall, and his splits had reversed from his career norms. He was basically average against lefties (104 wRC+) while having more success against righties (112 wRC+). That looks very much like a one-year blip based on the rest of his career — it was a 92 wRC+ against righties and a 153 wRC+ against lefties as recently as 2014 — and not the new normal, but stranger things have happened.

The lack of interest this offseason suggests teams do not see Freese as a player capable of producing at an average or better clip against both righties and lefties. Those guys usually find jobs, especially at an in-demand position like third base. Going forward, it’s best to project Freese as a platoon bat, and if he performs better than expected, great.

The Defense

For the vast majority of his career, the defensive stats have rated Freese as an average to slightly below-average third baseman. He had one disaster year in 2013 (-14 DRS and -16.5 UZR) but has otherwise hovered within a run or two of average. For what it’s worth, the UZR components say it’s all due to a lack of range. Freese turns double plays fine and avoids errors, but he’s a statue. Not much range at all.

Freese has played some first base in addition to third base, mostly earlier in his career, which is kind of a big deal as far as the Yankees are concerned. The Bird injury means they’re out a Grade-A piece of depth at first base. Freese played nine games at first with the Cardinals from 2009-11 plus a bunch more in the minors, and I’m guessing he would have seen some action at first with the Angels the last two years if not for Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron.

The defensive stats at first are meaningless given how little time Freese played there. As we’ve seen the last few years, first base is not as easy as it seems. The Yankees have thrown a lot of players at first for short periods of time (Chase Headley, Kelly Johnson, Brendan Ryan, Brian McCann, etc.) and all struggled with the transition to some degree. Freese at least has some familiarity with the position. He wouldn’t be going in blind.

Injury History

Only once in his six full MLB seasons has Freese managed to play 140+ games. That was the 144 games he played in 2013. Freese is good for at least one DL stint per season. Check out the list of injuries:

• 2015: Non-displaced fracture of right index finger. Missed close to six weeks.
• 2014: Fractured right middle finger. Missed three weeks.
• 2013: Lower back strain. Missed three weeks.
• 2012: Right and left ankle sprains. Missed ten games in September but didn’t go on the DL because of expanded rosters.
• 2011: Broken left hand. Missed two months.
• 2010: Right ankle tendon reconstruction surgery. Missed a little more than three months.
• 2009: Left heel debridement surgery. Missed two months in minors.

Not great. He’s had surgery on both ankles/feet and breaks in both hands/fingers. Any team that signs Freese would have to have a decent Plan B at third base because he’s going to miss time. His history suggests staying healthy over a full season just isn’t happening. The best predictor of future injury is past injury, after all.

Contract Projections

It is late in the offseason, and at this point the remaining free agents are going to end up with contracts smaller than expected. Howie Kendrick just took two years and $20M. That’s ridiculous. It’s a fraction of what he’s worth. Bargains are out there. Here are some early offseason projections for Freese:

• MLB Trade Rumors: Three years, $30M.
• FanGraphs Crowdsourcing: Two years, $18M.

Freese would certainly jump on three years and $30M right now. That’s 150% of Kendrick’s deal! He’d probably take the two years and $18M as well. Martin Prado and Justin Turner will be the best available free agent third basemen next offseason. Would Freese take a one-year deal and try his luck again next winter? He might not have a choice at this point.

Wrapping Up

Although he is four years older, I prefer Juan Uribe to Freese, but Freese could potentially fill a similar role as the backup third baseman and righty bat off the bench. He can’t play second like Uribe, but the Yankees have depth at that position in Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder. They need first base depth in the wake of Bird’s injury and Freese may be able to provide that. (Uribe may be able to as well.)

Looking around the league, I count eight teams that have an opening for either a starting third baseman or a most of the time third baseman: Angels, Indians, Astros, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, and Padres. Some of those teams are more realistic fits for Freese than others. The rebuilding Braves, Reds, Brewers, and Padres aren’t going to spend money on a veteran third baseman, for example.

The Yankees have yet to sign a Major League free agent this offseason but I don’t think they’re opposed to the idea completely. They can’t be. You have to be willing to act if a favorable deal comes along. My guess is Freese would have to come on similar terms as Stephen Drew last year ($5M for one year) for the Yankees to have any interest. And even then Freese has to be willing to accept a bench role.

As with most position player free agents this offseason, Freese looks like an okay fit for the Yankees but the Yankees don’t seem to be a fit for Freese. The Angels, Indians, and Pirates all stand to offer more playing time and Freese may consider those clubs more likely to contend in 2016 than the Yankees. At some point someone will sign him, right? I would be surprised if he has to settle for a 13th position player on the roster job at this stage of his career.

I feel like this was inevitable. At some point this winter, the Yankees would be connected to David Freese. It made too much sense. The Cardinals don’t need him anymore with second baseman Kolten Wong ready (Matt Carpenter would slide back to third) and the Bombers need some help at the hot corner. Add in the big-ish name, past postseason success, and familiarity with a baseball-crazy market and pennant races and all that, and it’s a match made in rumor heaven.

The Yankees have long had their eyes on Freese — they reportedly agreed to acquire him from the Padres for Kei Igawa back in 2007, but George Steinbrenner backed out because he didn’t want to eat any of Igawa’s contract — and sure enough, Mark Feinsand reported yesterday two sides have been talking trade. Later in the day we found out a deal is unlikely because they don’t match up well, or, in other words, the Cardinals don’t have much interest in what New York has to offer. That doesn’t mean a trade is off the table completely though, the offseason is still young and these two clubs have months to find common ground. Does he fit the Yankees’ needs though? Let’s take a look, starting with the negatives.

The Cons

• Freese’s power was absent in 2013. He slugged only nine homers with a .119 ISO in 521 plate appearances, down from the almost perfectly league average .150 ISO he posted from 2009-2012. Freese saw his HR/FB rate drop from 18.8% in 2011-2012 to 10.5% this year.
• His batted ball profile did not change (no sudden spike in ground balls, for example) and his .320 BABIP this past summer was actually a career-low by more than 30 points. He’s a high-BABIP hitter who managed a career-worst .262/.340/.381 (106 wRC+) in 2013.
• Freese is pretty bad defensively regardless of whether you want to use the eye test or the various fielding stats: -14 DRS, -13.1 UZR, -12.5 FRAA, and -19 Total Zone in his career. If you watched the postseason at all, you saw how positively statuesque he is at third.
• Freese won’t give you anything on the bases. He’s gone 6-for-12 in stolen base attempts in his 466-game big league career and he’s taken the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) just 34% of the time, below the 40% league average.
• The injury history is rather long. Freese missed time with back trouble this season (started the year on the DL) and he’s had three surgeries since breaking into the show: left heel debridement (2009), right ankle tendon reconstruction (2010), and a left hand fracture (2011). He’s also had a lot of day-to-day stuff over the years (mostly hamstring and wrist).
• I usually try to steer clear of off-the-field stuff here, but Freese has three alcohol-related arrests in his recent past and that seems like something worth mentioning. He was arrested for DUI in 2002 and again 2009, and was also arrested for public intoxication and resisting arrest in 2007. The second DUI was a violation of his probation stemming from the 2007 arrest.

The Pros

• Freese didn’t hit this past season but he has hit every other year of his career, putting up a .296/.363/.446 (125 wRC+) line from 2009-2012 and .293/.372/.467 (133 wRC+) with 20 homers in 567 plate appearances in 2012 alone. Both his walk (career 8.6%) and strikeout (21.0%) rates are right in line with the league averages.
• As a right-handed batter, he does most of his damage against lefties (career 134 wRC+) but can still hold his own against righties (114 wRC+). Even this past season, the worst of his career, he managed a tolerable 98 wRC+ against righties. He doesn’t need a platoon partner.
• We have to mention the postseason, right? Freese is a career .289/.357/.518 (141 wRC+) hitter with seven homers in 185 plate appearances across 41 postseason games, but I have to point out those numbers were built almost entirely during that monster 2011 run (245 wRC+). He was okay in 2012 (106 wRC+) and downright awful in 2013 (50 wRC+).
• Matt Swartz projects Freese to earn $4.4M through arbitration next season — for some reason I thought it was over $7M — and he will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2015 as well. He won’t be eligible for free agency until the 2015-2016 offseason.

Freese isn’t a bat first player, he’s a bat only player. He doesn’t help on defense and you can’t count on him to play 140+ games either — he’s only done that once in his career (144 in 2012) — so if he doesn’t hit, he’s a replacement level player (like he was this summer). There’s a chance his subpar 2013 season at the plate has to do with his back problem, which means he could rebound next year if he’s healthy or continue to get worse since back injuries have a way of lingering forever. I think it’s very clear Freese’s reputation, which was boosted by 2011 postseason heroics, far exceeds his actual worth right now.

Now, that said, the third base market is a wasteland. The best available free agent is Juan Uribe, who was very good this past season but a release candidate in both 2011 and 2012. The alternatives are Michael Young and Mark Reynolds. So yeah, the free agent market doesn’t offer much help. With the Padres reportedly hanging onto Chase Headley and Pablo Sandoval only kinda sorta on the market, Freese figures to be the best third baseman on the trade block this winter barring something surprising. He’s the best of an underwhelming lot of players.

The Yankees don’t have much to offer the Cardinals in the trade, hence St. Louis’ reluctance to pull the trigger. There is a chance the Cardinals will non-tender Freese prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than risk paying him $4.4M to be a bench player in 2014, at which point New York could simply sign him as a free agent. Maybe this is a repeat of the Russell Martin situation — the Yankees offered Frankie Cervelli to the Dodgers for Martin, who balked and eventually non-tendered their backstop days later. Maybe they low-balled St. Louis and are content with waiting to see if he gets cut loose next month (when they might have a better handle on the Alex Rodriguez’s situation) before upping their offer. Freese would help the Yankees but only at the right price. I don’t think he’s someone they should go all out to acquire regardless of their third base needs and the lack of alternatives.