River Avenue Blues

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Yankeemetrics: Nightmare on River Ave. (April 1-3)

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(AP)

April 1: Three is justenough
Monday started out with the worst possible Not-April-Fools-Joke — Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton landing on the Injured List — but ended on a much better note with the Yankees gutting through a 3-1 win over the Tigers.

Milestone alert! This was the team’s 500th regular season win at the current Yankee Stadium. Those 500 wins are 13 more than any other team has at their home ballpark since 2009.

Gary Sanchez gave the Yankees an early lead with a solo homer in a the second inning, a monster blast that went 417 feet to straightaway center. It was his second longball in as many games, the first time he’s gone deep in back to back games since August 17-18, 2017. That’s right — he didn’t homer in consecutive games at all last year.

Brett Gardner added an insurance run in the fifth with a solo shot to right-center. The Yankees are now 26-4 since 2017 (including playoffs) when Gardy goes yardy. Gardner still has never hit a true opposite-field home run in his career; the closest he came was a blast over the wall slightly to the left of dead-center at Tropicana Field on May 11, 2015.

Domingo German was the star, pitching the definition of an “effectively wild” game with seven strikeouts, five walks, one hit and one run (unearned) allowed in five innings. Coupled with his brilliant six-inning, no-hit start last May, German delivered this #FunFact: He became the first pitcher in Yankees history with multiple starts of at least five innings and one or fewer hits allowed within his first 30 career MLB games.

(Newsday)

Terrific Tanaka, Terrible Offense
The Yankees trotted out a lineup that included three players who were supposed to be in Scranton this week, and the result was hardly a shocker — a 3-1 loss that included a pathetic offense and little support for another brilliant outing by Masahiro Tanaka.

Still, the Yankees had a chance to win, entering the ninth with the game knotted at one, because of the excellence of Tanaka. He scattered eight hits, struck out seven with no walks, and wiggled out of a few tough jams in coughing up just one run over 6 2/3 innings. Combined with his awesome Opening Day start, Tanaka earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series award:

He is the second Yankees pitcher ever to begin the season throwing back-to-back starts allowing no more than one earned run with five-plus strikeouts and no walks in each game (the other guy was Kevin Brown in 2004).

Tanaka filled up the strike zone, throwing 63 of his 87 pitches (72%) for strikes, and his command was stellar in netting 15 called strikes, freezing several Tigers on pitches in the middle of the plate:

Tanaka’s effort was wasted by the Yankees cold bats and a ninth inning implosion by Aroldis Chapman. While the fireballer’s velocity was up from his first two appearances of the season, it didn’t matter as his command was off and he got torched for two runs and three hits by the Tigers. We’ve seen Chapman struggle at times in pinstripes — but not to this extent.

The last time he allowed at least two runs and three hits and took the loss in a game was Sept. 7, 2012 in his first season as a closer with the Reds.

(New York Post)

Breezy day in the Bronx
The Yankees six-game season-opening homestand ended in the most miserable fashion, as they dropped the rubber game of the series to the Tigers, 2-1, and were the victims of a couple awful franchise records in doing so.

They struck out 18 times, the most ever in a nine-inning game by any Yankees team. They now have 65 strikeouts for the season, the highest total through six games in franchise history. Thirteen of those punchouts were by Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, who also limited them to just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Boyd is the first left-hander to strike out at least 13 Yankees and allow no more than one run in a regular-season game at Yankee Stadium (old or new). The only southpaw pitcher to do that in a playoff game in the Bronx was Cliff Lee in Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS.

The one of the few reasons for optimism in the Yankees disastrous 2-4 record has been their starting pitching, which has a 2.32 ERA and has given up one earned run or fewer five times. Only two other Yankee pitching staffs have begun the season with their starters allowing no more than one earned run in five of the first six games — it also happened last year and in 2002.

Overall, they’ve allowed 20 runs, the 33rd time in franchise history they’ve given up 20 or fewer runs in the first six games; twice before they also were below .500 thru six games: 1964 and 1977. The 1964 team went on win the AL pennant and lose in the World Series while the 1977 team was World Series champs.

Some more perspective (don’t jump off the cliff yet?) … This is the sixth time in the Wild Card era that the Yankees have started 2-4 or worse. The results of the previous five seasons it happened:

Missed Playoffs – 1 (2013)
Made Playoffs – 4 (2017, 2015, 2006, 1998)
Won Division – 2 (2006, 1998)
Won World Series – 1 (1998)

Game One: Opening Day

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The last time the Yankees played a game that meant something, they were sent home for the winter and the Red Sox celebrated an ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium. That was 171 days ago. A busy winter followed, one still more notable for who the Yankees didn’t sign rather than who they acquired, and then came an injury-filled Spring Training. The Yankees are not close to full strength at the moment.

And yet, optimism is abound. The Yankees did upgrade their roster over the winter (at least when healthy), and they remain on the short list of the best teams in baseball. It feels like you can count on one hand the number of teams with a realistic chance to win the World Series in 2019. The Yankees are one of those teams. They hit dingers aplenty and the pitching staff is perpetually underrated.

“They’ve had a couple of really good teams here that have been close, and the disappointment of an ending when you feel like you have a team capable of greatness I think does add a log to the fire,” said second year manager Aaron Boone to Scott Orgera yesterday. “It does add a little extra kick to wanting this to get done, and I think that adds to everyone’s hunger a little bit.”

The Yankees snapped their six-year Opening Day losing streak last season. The next goal? Win back-to-back Opening Days. The Yankees haven’t done that since winning four straight season openers from 2005-08. They are 2-8 in their last ten Opening Days. Some notes about today:

  • Masahiro Tanaka is making his fourth career Opening Day start, breaking a tie with Hideo Nomo for the most ever by a Japanese-born pitcher. That’s pretty cool.
  • Five Yankees are on an Opening Day roster for the first time: Miguel Andujar, Domingo German, Gleyber Torres, Stephen Tarpley, and Luke Voit. That’s also pretty cool.
  • This is the earliest regular season game in Yankees history. The previous record? Last year’s March 29th season opener. For what it’s worth, the Yankees are 5-2 all-time in March.

The various injured Yankees are in Tampa rehabbing and won’t take part in today’s pregame introductions, which is kinda lame. “Opening Day is not that special. I’d rather be there for the World Series,” said CC Sabathia to Mark Didtler. Shows what I know. I thought Sabathia wouldn’t want to miss his final Opening Day. Anyway, here are today’s starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. DH Luke Voit
5. 3B Miguel Andujar
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. SS Troy Tulowitzki

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Baltimore Orioles
1. CF Cedric Mullins
2. LF Dwight Smith Jr.
3. 2B Jonathan Villar
4. DH Trey Mancini
5. 3B Rio Ruiz
6. RF Joey Rickard
7. 1B Chris Davis
8. C Jesus Sucre
9. SS Richie Martin

RHP Andrew Cashner

The good news: The home opener will not be rained/snowed out for the third time in the last four years. It is a glorious day in the Bronx. The bad news: It is pretty dang cold. Windy too. I hope you dressed warm if you’re at the ballpark. The baseline introductions will begin at approximately 12:44pm ET and they’ll probably be shown on the YES Network. Mariano Rivera is throwing out the ceremonial first pitch, so that’s cool. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy the first game of the new season, folks.

Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder) and Dellin Betances (shoulder) are both tentatively scheduled to throw a bullpen session this weekend … CC Sabathia (knee) threw three innings in a minor league game Tuesday and everything went well … Aaron Hicks (back) is running and doing core exercises. Still no baseball activities though.

Roster Notes: The Yankees officially announced the Opening Day roster and it is as expected. No surprises. Betances, Hicks, Severino, Didi Gregorius (elbow), Ben Heller (elbow), Jordan Montgomery (elbow) and Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) are all on the injured list. Sabathia is serving his five-game suspension, so the Yankees have a 24-man roster right now.

Uniform Notes: Domingo German has a new number. He was No. 65 last year, then switched to No. 63 in Spring Training in deference to James Paxton, and now he’s No. 55. Congrats to all you Hideki Matsui fans for coming into a free a Domingo German jersey. And last but not least, the Yankees have a black armband on their uniform today to honor Mel Stottlemyre. Stottlemyre passed away in January.

The Very Necessary Depth Starters [2019 Season Preview]

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The No. 4 starter (David Maxwell/Getty)

In the modern MLB, every team needs more than five starters. It’s just the nature of the game.

That especially applies to the 2019 Yankees. Luis Severino is on the shelf until May. CC Sabathia is expected back in mid-April, but he always has his mid-summer IL stint. Therefore, the Yankees are going to need one of their depth starters from the jump and another within a couple of weeks of the season starting.

So who do the Bombers have backing up their starting rotation?

Domingo German

Say hello to your No. 4 starter! That’s right, the pitcher who had a 5.57 ERA last season will be in the Opening Day rotation.

German had an extreme go of it in the rotation in 2018. In his first start, he no-hit Cleveland for six innings. He then gave up six runs in each of his next two starts with a total of six walks and three homers.

While he gave up plenty of home runs and had bouts of wildness, he also displayed flashes of brilliance. In a three-start stretch last June, he struck out 28 batters and walked two over 19 innings.

What won him the rotation spot this spring? German’s pure stuff is electrifying: He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball/sinker with a high-80s change and low-80s curve. His offspeed pitches had a whiff rate of 35.8 and 41.3 percent, respectively.

He struck out 22 and walked just two over 15 1/3 Grapefruit League innings. His 4.11 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story as he gave up five of his eight earned runs in his final spring start, when the Cardinals launched three homers against him.

What is his role for all of 2019? If the Yankees get all five of their main starters healthy, he’s likely ticketed for Triple-A, though there will be plenty of starts. Despite Gio Gonzalez in the system, German could very well get more than the 14 starts he had last season. If he does, the team will need more consistency from the 26-year-old pitcher.

What may help is the opener. For both German and the No. 5 starter, the Yankees may utilize Chad Green or Jonathan Holder as an opener. That’s especially important for German, who had an 8.36 ERA in first innings last year.

Luis Cessa

It feels like Cessa has been on the shuttle between Scranton and the Bronx for a half-decade, but that time will come to an end in 2019. The fourth-year pitcher is out of options and will be serving in the Opening Day bullpen.

While German had good underlying numbers this spring, Cessa had fantastic ones. He struck out 19, walked just two and gave up only 11 hits over 18 1/3 innings.

The 26-year-old righty lives in the mid-90s with the fastball like German but works in a healthy dose of sliders, turning to the pitch 41 percent of the time last year.

His role is more indeterminate than German. He’ll be the long reliever to begin the year, yet his spring performance may make him the favorite to take the No. 5 starter role when the turn first pops up. Unlike German, he won’t be going to Scranton anytime soon and his lack of options may mean this is it for him in pinstripes.

As with any pitcher, working in shorter outings out of the bullpen could unlock a new level of performance for Cessa. He’s done a better job of attacking the zone this spring, which could help his fastball play up in relief action.

Jonathan Loaisiga

Of the Yankees’ depth starting options, Loaisiga has the best pure stuff. His fastball averages 96 mph with a high-80s changeup and low-80s slider/curve. The whiff rate on his slider/curve was well above 30 percent. The spin rate on his curve is in the 86th percentile and his fastball velocity in the 89th. He’s got all the talent to be a contributing major leaguer.

But his health and control tell a different story. He’s a regular on the injured list, as one might expect from a hard-throwing righty under six-feet tall. Meanwhile, despite a strikeout rate above 30 percent last year, he also walked 11.1 percent of batters. His underlying numbers were still above-average, but he had a 5.11 ERA in his short MLB stint.

This season, he’ll be up in the majors for game No. 6 i.e. when Sabathia’s suspension is up. His role is anybody’s guess. Moreso than the previous two entries to this list, he may be ticketed for the bullpen long term and his stuff makes you believe he could be quite dominant once there. His chance to start in the Bronx is slim, even if he grabs the No. 5 spot in mid-April.

Chance Adams

In the next tier, there’s Adams. Added to the 40-man roster for a spot start last August, he didn’t impress in limited action. He’s in his third year repeating Triple-A after his performance took a turn for the worse in 2018.

This may be familiar by now, but he’s a two-pitch pitcher (fastball-slider) who gets strikeouts but can’t seem to find the plate often enough for sustained success. He’s walked more than three per nine the last few years with the walk rate going up.

Therefore, this is a big season. He can’t stall out in Triple-A and expect to a have a safe 40-man spot a year from now. His optionability makes him a potential up-and-down arm at times with spot starts likely going elsewhere. He needs to turn things around in Scranton before he sees the Bronx for an extended period.

Who else?

Beyond those four, the team still has some starting depth. Gonzalez’s MiLB deal has an out on April 20 and struggles from German or Cessa could open the door for the established veteran.

After Gonzalez, it’s anybody’s guess. David Hale and Drew Hutchison, both ticketed for Triple-A, each saw some time in the Show last year, with Hale having multiple stints in pinstripes before going overseas. They’re veteran depth arms.

As for prospects, Michael King lost out on Spring Training with an arm injury. Domingo Acevedo didn’t get a look in big league camp and will be repeating Double-A Trenton, though he’s on the 40-man roster. If the Yankees run through the above options and are looking for more, something has seriously gone wrong.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Using CC Sabathia’s suspension to gain another roster spot for five games

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(Presswire)

When the regular season begins next week, CC Sabathia will not be with the Yankees. Actually, no, let me rephrase that. Sabathia will not be an active player when the regular season begins next week. I’d bet on him being introduced alongside his teammates at Yankee Stadium during his final Opening Day next week. Can’t see Sabathia missing that.

After Opening Day, Sabathia figures to head back to Tampa to continue what is essentially his Spring Training. He got a late start on things because his December heart surgery delayed his offseason throwing, so he reported to camp behind other pitchers. Sabathia threw his second simulated game this past weekend and is expected to join the Yankees sometime in mid-April.

Because he won’t be ready until a few weeks into the season, the Yankees will stash Sabathia on the injured list for the time being. He also has to serve a five-game suspension stemming from the “That’s for you, bitch” incident last year. It was announced at the time that Sabathia would appeal the suspension, but there has been no follow-up. Very weird. Until we hear otherwise, I assume it’s still a five-game ban.

Last week Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch the Yankees are leaning toward carrying Sabathia on the Opening Day active roster to get the suspension out of the way. He can’t serve the suspension while on the injured list (that’s for performance-enhancing drug suspensions only) and the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. They’re leaning suspension then injured list over injured list then suspension.

Given the early season schedule, it makes the most sense to get the suspension out of the way early. The Yankees could use the suspension to effectively buy an extra roster spot. Specifically, they could send Domingo German to Triple-A at the end of Spring Training, then call him up to start the sixth game of the regular season. This would be the rotation schedule:

  • March 28th vs. Orioles: Masahiro Tanaka
  • March 29th: OFF
  • March 30th vs. Orioles: James Paxton
  • March 31st vs. Orioles: J.A. Happ
  • April 1st vs. Tigers: Luis Cessa (presumably)
  • April 2nd vs. Tigers: Tanaka on normal rest
  • April 3rd vs. Tigers: Domingo German (Sabathia’s suspension ends)

German has a fourth option and can be sent down, and because Sabathia will be placed on the injured list following the suspension, it allows the Yankees to recall German before he spends the requisite ten days in the minors. German doesn’t even have to physically go to Scranton. He can be part of the baseline introductions on Opening Day and hang with the team until being activated.

Sending German down allows the Yankees to carry four starters, eight relievers, and three bench players while Sabathia serves his suspension. The other option is carrying German on the roster and having five starters, and either seven relievers and three bench players, or eight relievers and two bench players. Neither of those is ideal. The Yankees would rather have the full complement of relievers and bench players.

The other option is carrying German as the eighth reliever. Keep him in the bullpen those first five games as a long man, and, if he’s not needed, start him in the sixth game and call up another reliever to fill Sabathia’s roster spot after the suspension is over. And, if German is needed in long relief, the Yankees could call up someone else to make that start in the sixth game (Jonathan Loaisiga?) before German joins the rotation the next time around.

Carrying German as the eighth reliever is a viable option — I think it’s what the Yankees will most likely do, especially with Dellin Betances now hurt — but I don’t love it. Those “he’s going to start this day if we don’t need him in long relief first” situations always seem to result in the Yankees trying to stay away from the guy so he can start. I’d rather send German down for the five games and carry eight relievers Aaron Boone can use without worrying what it does to his rotation, you know?

Losing a roster spot for five games during Sabathia’s suspension isn’t a huge deal. He’s a starting pitcher, so it’s not like he plays between starts anyway, plus there’s an off-day squeezed into the five-game span. Getting the suspension out of the way early allows the Yankees to manipulate their roster and use Sabathia’s injured list assignment to bring back a recently optioned player, in this case German, who could then start the sixth game of the year and allow the Yankees to carry a full bullpen and bench during the suspension. They wouldn’t be shorthanded despite a 24-man roster.

The Yankees did not have a starter throw 100 pitches until their 20th game last year and that was by design. They eased everyone into the season and I assume the same will be true this year, which means they’re going to want a full bullpen in the early going. Sabathia’s suspension and injured list stint allows them to carry eight relievers and three bench players, and delay calling up their fifth starter until the sixth game. It’s the best of a not great situation.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge, 20 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019

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(Presswire)

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Yankees recently wrapped up their final little bit of offseason business. The Yankees have signed their 21 pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2019, reports the Associated Press. That’s everyone. The entire 40-man roster is under contract.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights. The team can pay them pretty much whatever they want, though they usually negotiate with the player and agree to a salary to maintain a good relationship. The Yankees agreed to deals with everyone this year and did not unilaterally renew anyone, which they did with Dellin Betances back in the day.

Here, via the Associated Press, are the salary details. Because I like you, I’ve gone through the trouble of including each player’s year-to-year raise in parenthesis, assuming last year’s salary information is available. The Major League minimum rose from $545,000 last season to $555,000 this season.

Service Time (Years.Days) MLB Salary MiLB Salary
Gary Sanchez 2.086 $669,800 ($49,400) $310,200
Aaron Judge 2.051 $684,300 ($62,000) $311,150
Chad Green 2.050 $598,650 ($27,850) $285,400
Jordan Montgomery 1.153 $596,600 ($16,150) $290,225
Jonathan Holder 1.144 $580,300 $262,947
Luis Cessa 1.131 $578,975 ($10,050) $210,768
Ben Heller 1.096 $555,000 ($7,525) $273,738
Clint Frazier 1.057 $563,300 ($4,100) $222,711
Miguel Andujar 1.020 $617,600 ($71,800) $269,216
Domingo German 1.017 $577,500 ($29,275) $190,150
Tyler Wade 1.007 $572,000 ($20,700) $155,692
Luke Voit 0.169 $573,200 ($27,600) $145,673
Gleyber Torres 0.162 $605,200 ($60,200) $240,210
Kyle Higashioka 0.124 $562,900 $160,207
Jonathan Loaisiga 0.047 $560,550 ($15,550) $92,766
Stephen Tarpley 0.030 $557,250 $90,400
Chance Adams 0.025 $556,725 $90,400
Domingo Acevedo 0.001 $555,000 $90,400
Albert Abreu 0.000 $555,000 $90,400
Thairo Estrada 0.000 $555,000 ($10,000) $90,400
Joe Harvey 0.000 $555,000 $45,300

Unless the two sides agree to a long-term contract, all pre-arb players sign non-guaranteed one-year split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another in the minors. Non-guaranteed means the team can release the player in Spring Training and pay him only a fraction of his contract. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone though. I’m just saying.

Most teams, including the Yankees, have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards voting, things like that. Minor league salary is determined by big league service time and tenure on the 40-man roster more than anything. This is Harvey’s first year on the 40-man. It’s Abreu’s and Estrada’s second and their minor league salaries are almost exactly double Harvey’s. The math is easy enough.

It goes without saying many pre-arb players are grossly underpaid. Judge at less than $700,000 is one of the best bangs for the buck in baseball. Players make nothing early in their careers, and it used to be that teams made it up on the back end during free agency. That isn’t really the case anymore. The MLBPA should push for increased pay for players with 0-6 years of service time. I’m not sure increased spending on free agency is realistic in the analytics era.

The Yankees have already signed Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks long-term this spring, and reports indicate they’re talking extensions with others as well. Impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are presumably the top priorities. Judge and Sanchez are in their final dirt cheap pre-arb season, so I’d assume the Yankees will talk to them about an extension at some point. They might enjoy the huge six-figure production in 2019 first.