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6/8 to 6/10 Series Preview: New York Mets

June 8, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

After a much-needed day off, the Yankees return to New York to … continue their road trip with a brief excursion to Queens.

The Last Time They Met

The Pinstripers swept four games from the Mets last August with two games in the Bronx followed by two games in Queens, none of which were decided by more than two runs.

Aaron Judge hit a home run that went to the moon off Robert Gsellman. My eyes say it landed in the upper deck at Citi Field, but logic tells me the ball has just reached Jupiter’s moons.

Sonny Gray picked up his first win as a Yankee, beating Jacob deGrom in the Bronx. Aroldis Chapman struggled in that game as he gave up a dinger to rookie Amed Rosario, but the Yankees held on.
Gary Sanchez had three homers in the series, including a three-run shot to give Luis Severino an early lead in the series finale. Judge had a couple of long balls as well while Didi Gregorius had the game-winning double in the third game of the series.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Hard-throwing ace Noah Syndergaard is expected to return in time for Sunday’s series finale after straining a ligament in his his throwing hand. Slugging OF Yoenis Cespedes could return in this series but is more likely to go on rehab assignment against Double-A Trenton this weekend. Catcher Devin Mesoraco is day-to-day and should start at some point in this series.

Outside of them, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, David Wright and A.J. Ramos are out for this series. Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares are done until 2019.

Their Story So Far

At 27-32, the Mets have the fourth worst record in the National League and are sitting in fourth place in their division despite an 11-1 start. The team has lost six straight games in which they’ve scored just seven total runs and looked inept on offense. Over the last two weeks, the team is hitting just .217/.300/.354 (80 wRC+) collectively and it’s often looked much worse. Both Alex Cobb and Jon Lester carried no-hitters into the middle innings against them over the last week.

The next few weeks will be critical for this squad, particularly once Cespedes returns. They’ll need to make up ground in the playoff race soon or else they’ll be faced with an imperative to sell off some big pieces. While they likely wouldn’t trade their top players to the Yankees for PR purposes, Syndergaard and deGrom would fit quite well in the Bronx and the Bombers could probably give the Mets an attractive package of prospects.

Lineup We Might See

1. LF Brandon Nimmo (.267/.407/.533)
2. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (.286/.328/.498)
3. CF Michael Conforto (.228/.351/.380)
4. 3B Todd Frazier (.230/.345/.393)
5. RF Jay Bruce (.224/.297/.339)
6. C Kevin Plawecki (.205/.375/.273)
7. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.244/.309/.381)
8. Pitcher’s spot
9. SS Amed Rosario (.251/.284/.366)

Mickey Callaway likes to have Amed Rosario ninth and put the pitcher’s spot in the eight hole. The Mets have three catchers on their roster and Jose Reyes, so their bench isn’t optimized all that well.

I miss deGrom with the long hair. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:10 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
deGrom has arguably been the best pitcher in the National League this season. Sporting an NL-best 1.49 ERA, he’s been dominant yet is only 4-0 in 12 starts with the Mets going 5-7 in his appearances thanks to some awful run support. He’s given up one run or fewer in his last three starts while throwing seven innings in each, yet the Mets lost each game.

The 29-year-old righty lives in the mid-to-high-90s with his fastball while going often to his high-80s, low-90s slider that is an adventure to try and hit. He also has a high-80s changeup and an 82-mph curveball. He regular throws over 100 pitches and is pretty efficient doing so. He’s fifth in baseball with a 26.6 K-BB rate.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 2) – 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 13 K

Saturday (7:15 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Steven Matz
After an injury-plagued 2017 season, Steven Matz has returned to form this season and looks much like the dependable starter he was in 2015-16. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is coming off his longest start (seven innings) since July 2017.

He has a 3.42 ERA, though his 5.11 FIP looks like a harbinger of things to come. He walks nearly four per nine and despite sporting a groundball rate above 50 percent, he allows 1.54 homers per nine.

Matz attacks with his 93-mph sinking fastball and goes off speed with both a high-70s curveball and low 80s changeup. He doesn’t tend to go very deep into starts and the Yankees’ offense can certainly knock him out early with their normal patient approach.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 3) – 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Sunday (8:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Noah Syndergaard is coming off the disabled list just in time to face the Bombers. Therefore, Sunday Night Baseball will be a matchup of the two pitchers with the highest average fastball velocity in baseball. Syndergaard averages 97.4 mph on his fastball and often reaches 100+ on the radar. He’s a beast and he has the strikeout numbers to prove it.

Similar to Severino, Syndergaard walks very few batters for a fireballer of his ilk, striking out 28.3 percent of batters and walking just 4.8 percent. Add that to his relatively low home run rate and he’s a sabermetrician’s dream.

The 25-year-old ace goes more to his wiffleball-esque sinker than his four-seamer and goes to his hard slider and changeup often. He’ll also mid in an 83-mph curveball for good measure. He has only gone past the sixth inning twice this season and will be coming off the DL, so his workload will be something to watch on Sunday.

Last Outing (@ MIL on May 25) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR

Update (4:21pm ET): The Mets just announced Syndergaard will not come off the disabled list to start Sunday. It’ll be Seth Lugo instead.

The Bullpen

After looking like a strength to begin the season, the Mets’ bullpen has been disastrous recently. Just ask deGrom! They were 29th in bullpen WAR in May and have needed one of their more effective relievers, Seth Lugo, in a spot start, making matters worse. With Thursday’s day off and seven strong innings from Zack Wheeler on Wednesday, the Mets are well rested in the bullpen.

Jeurys Familia is the closer, though Callaway will occasionally use him in the eighth if that’s when an opponent’s heart of the order comes up. (Fun fact: He’s the last closer to reach 50 saves.) Gsellman and Lugo are used as multi-inning high-leverage relievers while former Yankee Anthony Swarzak will also take some late innings now that he’s off the DL.

Paul Sewald is both a long man and occasional high-leverage guy while Jerry Blevins is a solid LOOGY who hasn’t been effective this year. Hansel Robles and Tim Peterson are back-of-the-roster guys and shouldn’t see high-leverage spots this series.

Yankees Connection

The Toddfather! Todd Frazier is inked into a deal with the Mets for the next 1.5 years after his three months in pinstripes. Swarzak spent four ill-fated months with the Bombers and A.J. Ramos is Giancarlo Stanton’s roommate in NYC. Who gets the house this weekend?

Who (Or What) to Watch?

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Mets have their best starters going this weekend. This is the Mets’ best shot at the Bombers and how the Yankees handle it could be a decisive blow to their crosstown foes or a chance for the Mets to stay afloat.
Along those lines, how can you not get excited for Severino vs. Syndergaard? They’ll be trading 100-mph fastballs like it’s nothing.

The Yankees may have to work out a deal with a rival when the time comes to trade for a starter

May 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

At some point in the next two months the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher. Who exactly? I’m not sure. I am confident it’ll happen though. Sonny Gray is still lost and no one really knows what to expect from post-elbow injury Jordan Montgomery. Even if Montgomery comes back and is great, the Yankees could still use another starter.

The big name trade target right now is Cole Hamels, mostly because he is an impending free agent on a terrible team, but also because people are sick of talking about Michael Fulmer and Chris Archer. The Yankees saw Hamels last week and he pitched well against them, and nothing gets fans’ attention quite like pitching well against the Yankees.

Other pitchers, including some surprise names, will jump into the trade conversation in the coming weeks. It’s inevitable. Happens every year. Good pitchers on bad teams is always the best place to start when trying to predict trade possibilities, and two immediately jump to mind:

J.A Happ: 3.84 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 29.5 K% and 47.9 GB% in 65.2 innings
Jacob deGrom: 1.52 ERA (2.11 FIP) with 32.8 K% and 43.9 GB% in 65.1 innings

The Blue Jays are a very distant fourth in the AL East and they are competing with no fewer than six teams in the Wild Card race. Happ is an impending free agent, so unless the Blue Jays make a miraculous run at some point before the deadline, one of two things will likely happen: Either they sign Happ to an extension or they’ll trade him.

As for the Mets, they have crashed back to Earth hard since their 11-1 start. They split yesterday’s doubleheader with the Braves to drop to 26-25 on the season. There are three teams ahead of them in the NL East race and seven teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race. It’s not difficult to envision them slipping even further out of the race going forward.

The Mets trading deGrom is, obviously, a much greater long shot than the Blue Jays trading Happ. Happ’s an impending free agent and they might loose him for nothing after the season. deGrom is under team control through 2020. Keeping him would be a very defensible move. Heck, he might go down as a top four Mets pitcher all-time.

If Happ and especially deGrom become available at the trade deadline, it goes without saying the Yankees should get involved. Both represent rotation upgrades and are pitchers any team could comfortably start in a postseason game. That’s what the Yankees are looking for, right? Not someone to get them through the season. They want a true difference-maker.

There is one small problem with the Yankees trading for Happ and/or deGrom: They play for rival teams. The Blue Jays are a division rival and intradivision trades are always tough. There’s a reason they’re uncommon. As for deGrom, it has been a very long time since the Yankees and Mets made a significant trade. Imagine one of this caliber? Involving a true ace? Goodness.

Trading with a rival is not impossible, just complicated. The Yankees have the young talent to beat any trade offer. They’re not at a disadvantage there. It’s just a question of whether the Blue Jays or Mets will trade with the Yankees, and if so, what’ll it cost? Will the Yankees have to overpay to make it happen? It’s easy to say that, if the Yankees make the best offer, the Blue Jays or Mets should take it, but we know things aren’t that simple. PR hits matter.

In a perfect world the Mets will continue to fall out of the race and make deGrom available. He’s my ideal trade target. He’s excellent and under control another two years. Tell the Mets to take any four players not on the MLB roster and call it a deal. If that doesn’t work, Happ would be a fine consolation prize (at a much lower price).

The trade market will develop over the next few weeks and I am certain a few surprise names will be made available. It happens every year. Happ and deGrom stand out as potential trade targets given their teams’ situations, though both guys plays for rivals, so the Yankees could have a hard time swinging a trade. Enough of a hard time that they may have to look elsewhere.

Yankees acquire L.J. Mazzilli from Mets in minor trade

April 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

For the first time since the Mike Stanton-Felix Heredia swap in 2004, the Yankees and Mets have made a player-for-player trade. This morning the Yankees announced they’ve acquired utility man L.J. Mazzilli from their crosstown rivals for minor league outfielder Kendall Coleman. Yes, L.J. is Lee’s son (L.J. is short for Lee Jr.). His twin sister Lacey works for the Yankees as a on-air promo and events host.

Mazzilli, 27, was a fourth round pick back in 2013. He’s yet to reach the big leagues and has split the last two seasons between Double-A and Triple-A. Last year Mazzilli hit .254/.340/.362 (95 wRC+) in 425 plate appearances, and he is off to a 2-for-6 start in Triple-A in the super early going this year. He’s a career second baseman who started to dabble in the outfield last year.

Injuries (Thairo Estrada, Mark Payton) and call-ups (Miguel Andujar, Billy McKinney, Jace Peterson) have left Triple-A Scranton short on position players. They’ve been playing a first baseman (Ryan McBroom) in the outfield and their utility infielder (Daniel Barrios) has spent the last five years in rookie ball. The RailRiders really needed another position player, so Mazzilli it is.

The 22-year-old Coleman was the team’s 11th round pick in 2013. He hit .212/.294/.322 (87 wRC+) with three homers in 239 plate appearances with Short Season Staten Island last season, and he started this season back in Extended Spring Training. For all intents and purposes, this is a spare part for spare part trade. The Yankees needed an upper level position player and the Mets had one to spare.

Reports: Mets agree to two-year deal with Todd Frazier

February 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to multiple reports, the Mets and Todd Frazier have agreed to a two-year contract worth $17M. Less than I thought he’d get! Even in this free agent market. The Yankees have been connected to Frazier throughout the offseason, though it never seemed they were seriously trying to re-sign him.

Frazier, 32 next month, played 66 games with the Yankees last season after coming over from the White Sox in mid-July. He hit .222/.365/.423 (114 wRC+) with eleven homers, played strong defense, and was of course an all around great clubhouse dude. Frazier seemed to genuinely love being a Yankee and made it known he wanted to come back.

The Yankees are said to be in the market for a free agent infielder and, even with Frazier off the board, there is no shortage of options. Mike Moustakas, Neil Walker, Eduardo Nunez … plenty of guys still out there. Of course, the $197M luxury tax threshold looms, and the team only has about $12M to spend, assuming they set aside $10M for midseason additions.

At the moment Miguel Andujar is penciled in as the starting third baseman and I hope he gets the job. Looking forward to another Baby Bomber joining the lineup. I don’t blame the Yankees for monitoring the market for veteran infielder insurance, however. So long, Todd. You were a cool dude and a good Yankee for the few weeks you were actually a Yankee.

Tuesday Links: Sabathia, Girardi, Mets, Judge, Tate, Abreu

October 10, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Thanks to wins in Games Three and Four of the ALDS the last two days, the Yankees will play for a spot in the ALCS tomorrow night. What a fun season this has been. I hope it never ends. Anyway, here are some stray links to check out now that we all have a chance to catch our breath a bit during the off-day.

Sabathia still wants to pitch in 2018

Over the weekend CC Sabathia reiterated to Jon Morosi that he plans to pitch in 2018. He said this back over the winter too, but at 37 years old and with a balky knee, he could’ve changed his mind at some point during the season. And heck, maybe the Yankees will win the World Series and Sabathia will decide to ride off into the sunset as a champion. That’d be cool, as much as I’d miss CC.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow night, I am totally cool with bringing Sabathia back on one-year contracts for pretty much the rest of his career, Andy Pettitte style. He showed this year that last season’s success was no fluke. The new Sabathia is here to stay. Between the perpetual need for pitching depth and Sabathia’s leadership role in the clubhouse, bringing him back is a no-brainer. And why would Sabathia want to leave? The Yankees are good and fun, and he lives here year-round. The going rate for veteran innings dudes (Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, etc.) is one year and $10M to $12M these days. Maybe Sabathia gets $15M because he’s basically a legacy Yankee?

Mets have discussed Girardi

I had a feeling this was coming. According to Mike Puma, the Mets have internally discussed pursuing Joe Girardi should Girardi and the Yankees part ways when his contract expires after the season. Terry Collins was essentially pushed out as Mets manager after the season, and the team is looking for a new skipper. Also, as George King writes, Girardi has given some indications he could step away after the season to spend more time with his family and avoid burnout.

While we should never rule out Girardi going elsewhere or simply stepping away to be with his family, these two reports struck me as plants from Girardi’s camp as a way to build leverage for contract talks. The best thing for Girardi would be the Nationals and Dusty Baker having trouble finding common ground for an extension, because then he could use them as leverage too. I think Girardi wants to come back — who’d want to leave given how well set up the Yankees are for the future? — and I think both Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman want him back. The chances of a reunion seem quite high to me. Maybe as high as 95/5.

Judge named BA’s Rookie of the Year

A few days ago Baseball America named Aaron Judge their 2017 Rookie of the Year, which should surprise no one. They give out one award for all of MLB, not one for each league. Baseball America has been giving out their Rookie of the Year award since 1989 and Judge is the second Yankee to win it, joining Derek Jeter in 1996. From their write-up:

“You watched him in the minor leagues and you saw the raw power and athletic ability,” one pro scout told BA during the season. “You saw a big swing and high strikeout numbers. Then you have to ask yourself does he have the ability to make adjustments and shorten the swing. The answer was yes.’

“If anybody says they expected this I would have to call them a liar. Nobody in their right mind expected this.”

The last few Baseball America Rookies of the Year include Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Jose Abreu, Jose Fernandez, and Mike Trout. Judge is for sure going to win the AL Rookie of the Year award — he’d be the first Yankee to win that since Jeter — and he should win unanimously. The real question here is the MVP race. I see way more people explaining why Judge shouldn’t win it (his slump) than why Jose Altuve should win. Kinda weird.

Tate removed, Abreu added to AzFL roster

Dillon Tate has been removed from the Scottsdale Scorpions roster with Albert Abreu taking his place, the Arizona Fall League announced. Also, Chris Gittens was removed from the roster as well. I’m not sure why Tate was dropped from the roster, but it could one of countless reasons. He could’ve gotten hurt. The Yankees could’ve decided to shut him down after Instructional League. The Yankees may think those innings would be better spent on Abreu. Who knows.

Abreu came over in the Brian McCann trade and he threw only 53.1 innings around elbow and lat injuries this year. He finished the season healthy though, and is obviously healthy enough to go to the AzFL, so he’ll be able to squeeze in some more innings there. That’s good. Abreu has an awful lot of upside, maybe the most of any pitcher in the system. As for Gittens, he was removed because Billy McKinney was added to the AzFL roster, and he’s going to start playing some first base there. Only so many first base roster spots to go around, so Gittens gets dropped.

Yankeemetrics: Kings of New York (Aug. 14-17)

August 18, 2017 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

The Aarons and Gary Show
True to form, the Yankees bounced back from their latest Worst Loss of The Season with a late-inning rally to beat the Mets, 4-2, in the Subway Series opener.

If we know anything about this 2017 Yankees team, we know it’s a resilient one. It was their 17th comeback win when trailing by multiple runs this season; through Monday, only three teams (Twins, Astros, Angels) had more such wins than the Yankees.

Also true to form, the comeback was fueled by a burst of power. Aaron Judge tied the game in the sixth inning on an opposite-field solo shot; Aaron Hicks’ blast to lead off the eighth was the game-winner; and Gary Sanchez added an insurance-run dinger later in the eighth inning.

For Sanchez, it was his 20th home run of the season, the second straight year he’s reached that milestone. Only four other catchers in major-league history produced multiple 20-homer campaigns before their age-25 season (while playing at least 75% of their games behind the dish): Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Brian McCann and Wilin Rosario.

Hicks’ homer was his 12th of the year – a new single-season career-best – and made him the answer to another #FunFact piece of Subway Series trivia. He joined Russell Martin (June 10, 2012) as the only Bronx Bombers to hit a go-ahead homer after the seventh inning against the Mets at Yankee Stadium.

Judge sparked the rally with his 36th homer of 2017 and the 40th of his career. (In a weird statisical quirk, Sanchez and Hicks’ home runs were also their 40th career bombs.) As we’ve noted before, Judge’s combination of patience and power – he had 96 walks to go along with his 40 homers – is unprecedented for a rookie:

Judge is the first player in baseball history to compile at least 40 homers and 75 walks within his first 140 big-league games.

Too close for comfort
The Yankees squeezed out another victory on Tuesday night, but this time the drama was self-induced. They survived another near-implosion in the ninth inning by Aroldis Chapman, winning 5-4 after Amed Rosario took Chapman deep in the final frame.

Chapman was his typical dominant self for the first month of the season (11 games, 0.87 ERA, 41% K), but since he blew the save on May 7 in the 18-inning marathon against the Cubs, he’s been mostly mediocre (25 games, 5.40 ERA, 29% K). This is arguably his least-dominant 25-game stretch since he first broke into the majors in 2011, in terms of strikeout rate:

chapman
Still, the Yankees built up enough of an advantage in the first eight innings for the win on Tuesday with another stellar outing by Sonny Gray and another shot of home-run power.

Gray was mostly fantastic, holding the Mets scoreless on four hits through six innings, before his only blemish, a homer by Dominic Smith in the seventh. His slider was filthy and nearly untouchable, netting him eight whiffs and five strikeouts. His ability to bury the pitch below the knees and gloveside was hugely important, as he got all eight of his swings-and-misses in that location:

sonny-gray

He extended his streak of at least six innings pitched and no more than two earned runs allowed to nine starts, the second-longest in the majors this season. Over the past decade, the only American League right-handers to have a streak as long as Gray’s were Felix Hernandez (16 in 2014) and Justin Verlander (9 in 2011).

Gary Sanchez drove in the first run of the game with an RBI single in the second, giving him the nice round number of 100 career RBIs. He is one of eight players in Yankee history to reach the century mark in RBIs this early into his career (141st game). It’s a group that includes four Hall of Famers – Joe DiMaggio, Tony Lazzeri, Joe Gordon, Yogi Berra – and three other franchise notables – George Selkirk, Bob Meusel, Charlie Keller.

Sanchez then gave the Yankees a seemingly comfortable 4-0 lead in the fifth inning with a towering moonshot into the left-center field bleachers, his 21st homer of the season and the 10th that went at least 425 feet. Among players with 15 or more dingers this season, Sanchez has the highest percentage of 425-foot-plus homers.

Clutch Didi, Monster Judge
The Subway Series shifted to Queens on Wednesday but the result was the same, another power-fueled win (plus a small dose of timely hitting) for the Yankees. It was their 14th win against the NL this season, the most Interleague victories they’ve ever had in a single year.

The crosstown rivals traded punches for much of the game until the Yankees finally broke through in the seventh inning with a rare clutch hit, when Didi Gregorius lined a two-out, bases-loaded double to score two runs for a 5-3 lead. That was the Yankees only hit in 10 at-bats with a runner in scoring position.

You could say that setup was tailor-made for Clutch Didi. Since joining the Yankees in 2015, he’s hitting .385 with the bases full, the best average among players with at least 35 at-bats in that situation over the last three seasons; and he’s 7-for-17 (.412) with the bases-loaded and two outs, the fourth-best average by any player in that span (min. 15 at-bats).

Yet Didi’s heroics were buried in the highlight reel thanks to Aaron Judge being Aaron Judge, both the good and the bad version.

Judge set another major-league record on Wednesday, striking out for the 33 straight game, the longest single-season streak ever by a non-pitcher. In 1934, when Lou Gehrig led the majors with 49 homers, he struck out a total of 31 times (in 690 plate appearances). It’s a different game today, folks.

With the ugly, though, comes the awesome. Judge also broke the Internet when he crushed a massive home run into the third deck at Citi Field.

Judge just hit one to Monument Park … from Queens. pic.twitter.com/WldmZksKbv

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 17, 2017

Holy moly. 457 feet, 117 mph exit velo for Mr. Judge

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) August 17, 2017

It was his eighth homer with an exit velocity of at least 115 mph – is that good? The rest of major-league baseball had combined for 13 through Wednesday, and no other player had more than three.

Plus, there’s this sweet list of the Top 5 Hardest-Hit Home Runs this season:

	Name	Speed	Date
1.	Aaron Judge	121.1	June 10
2.	Aaron Judge	119.4	April 28
3.	Aaron Judge	118.6	June 11
4.	Aaron Judge	118.4	July 4
5.	Aaron Judge	117.0	August 16

Sevy bounces back, Sanchez powers up
The Yankees survived yet another ninth-inning scare on Thursday night, and held on for the 7-5 win to complete their second-ever Subway Series sweep; in 2003, they won all six games against their intracity rival.

They nearly blew a 7-1 lead with three outs to go when Curtis Granderson hammered a grand slam into the rightfield seats. It was the fourth bases-loaded homer given up by Yankees pitchers this season, one more than they surrendered from 2014-16 combined. Granderson also joined Mike Piazza (June 2, 2000) and Carlos Delgado (June 27, 2008) as the only Mets to hit a grand slam against the Yankees.

Gary Sanchez drove in five of the Yankees seven runs, becoming the first Yankee with five RBIs in a game against the Mets since Alex Rodriguez on July 2, 2006. That seems fitting given that El Gary and A-Rod have become lunch buddies recently.

Severino rebounded from the worst start of his career and was back to his dominant self, giving up one unearned run over 6 1/3 innings while striking out nine. He upped his season whiff total to 175, the third-most strikeouts by a Yankee in his age-23 season or younger, and trailing only Lefty Gomez (176 in 1932) and Al Downing (217 in 1964).

It was also Severino’s 10th start of more than six innings pitched and one run or fewer allowed in 2017. Only two other MLB pitchers have done that this season: Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale.

8/14 to 8/17 Series Preview: New York Mets

August 14, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

This may technically be two separate series, as it is a home-and-home affair. The Yankees will host the Mets tonight and tomorrow, and then travel to Queens on Wednesday and Thursday. I want to say something about facing a reeling/selling team like the Mets being just what the Yankees need – but the Mets have actually been slightly better this month, with one more win (5-7 to 4-8) and eleven more runs scored. Ugh.

The Last Time They Met

The Subway Series was a similar arrangement last year, as the Yankees visited Citi Field on August 1 and August 2, then played host to the Mets on August 3 and 4. They split each two-game set, and the series as a whole. Some notes:

This was the Yankees first series after last year’s trade deadline, with the first game occurring hours after they dealt Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova to complete the sell-off. They dealt Andrew Miller the day before, and Aroldis Chapman a week prior.
The Yankees starters were hit hard in all four games, surrendering 22 runs (21 ER), 38 base-runners, and 7 homers in 22.2 IP. The bullpen, however, was quite good, holding the Mets to just 2 runs (1 ER) in 13.1 IP.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, and Didi Gregorius all reached base safely in all four games.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun fact.

Injury Report

I wanted to put a snarky joke here about everyone being hurt, but that’s too easy (and hits too close to home, to boot).

Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, T.J. Rivera, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and David Wright are all on the disabled list, with no return date as of yet. I wouldn’t be shocked if all six were shut down at some point, given that the Mets are basically just playing out the string at this point. Robert Gsellman is close to returning, having made four rehab starts already, but he won’t be back this series. And Jacob deGrom left his last start early with a triceps bruise after getting hit by a line drive, but he’s slated to start tomorrow.

Their Story So Far

The Mets are 53-62 with a -54 run differential, and they have been selling off assets since late July. Lucas Duda and Addison Reed were sent packing just before the deadline, and Jay Bruce and Neil Walker were dealt over the last week. Of course, Yankees fans are well-aware of these moves, as the Mets seemingly refused to deal with the Yankees, even if it meant a much better return.

As has been the case for what seems like forever, the Mets hopes have been torpedoed by injuries this year. Yoenis Cespedes missed more than 40 games, Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since April, Familia hasn’t pitched since May, and three other starting pitchers have spent at least a month on the disabled list. And that ignores the nagging injuries that have kept several other players out for a few weeks at a time.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Terry Collins has a reputation for being stubbornly adherent to old school lineup configurations and overly loyal to veterans, but he has been flexible with his lineup construction for the majority of the season. One could argue that his hand has been forced by injuries and non-performance, but Mets fans are pleased to see Michael Conforto hitting at or near the top of the order, and top prospects Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith getting playing time. Here’s the lineup that we’ll probably see in the Bronx:

Curtis Granderson, RF/DH
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
Yoenis Cespedes, DH/LF
Michael Conforto, CF
Wilmer Flores, 3B
Dominic Smith, 1B
Travis d’Arnaud, C
Brandon Nimmo, LF/RF
Amed Rosario, SS

And here’s what we should see in Queens:

Curtis Granderson, RF
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
Yoenis Cespedes, LF
Michael Conforto, CF
Wilmer Flores, 3B
Dominic Smith, 1B
Travis d’Arnaud, C
Amed Rosario, SS
[pitcher]

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Cessa vs. RHP Rafael Montero

Four years ago, Montero was a consensus top-100 prospect as a 23-year-old on the verge of reaching the majors. And four days ago, when asked about Montero’s future in the rotation, Collins said “We don’t have a lot of options right now. And if we can’t come up with an option, he’s going to go back out.” Such is life when you’re sitting on a career 5.58 ERA (71 ERA+) and 12.3 BB%.

Montero throws four pitches – a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-80s sinker, an upper-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. His stuff is quite good when taken at face value, but he struggles to locate his offerings, and is often hit hard when he nibbles with his fastball.

Last Outing (vs. TEX on 8/9) – 3.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jacob deGrom

The 29-year-old deGrom came out of nowhere to win Rookie of the Year in 2014, when he pitched to the following line – 140.1 IP, 117 H, 43 BB, 144 K, 2.69 ERA (128 ERA+), 2.67 FIP. Many expected him to drop-off the following season, due to his lack of prospect hype and suddenly and almost inexplicably improved stuff, but he has gotten even better since then. deGrom is currently fourth in the NL in IP, fifth in bWAR, and 10th in ERA+. At this point, the argument isn’t about regression; it’s whether or not he’s an ace.

deGrom is a true five-pitch pitcher. He throws a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s sinker, an upper-80s slider, an upper-80s change-up, and a low-80s curve, and he can throw all five for strikes.

Last Outing (vs. PHI on 8/10) – 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): LHP Jaime Garcia vs. RHP Seth Lugo

There is a good chance that you know of Seth Lugo solely because of Statcast’s infatuation with his curveball. For those of you who aren’t aware, Lugo’s curveball has the highest spin rate in the game, and it is a heck of a pitch to see live. It would be a more impressive feat if he was better, though; Lugo currently has a 4.85 ERA (88 ERA+), and his 17.4 K% is well below the league-average of 21.6%. Having a scale-breaking pitch is cool, but it hasn’t led to success just yet.

In addition to that big-breaking mid-70s curveball, Lugo also throws a low-90s fastball, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider.

Last Outing (vs. PHI on 8/11) – 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 8 K

Thursday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Steven Matz

Matz has had an arduous journey since being drafted, to say the least. He was drafted in 2009, but did not make his professional debut until 2012 due to Tommy John surgery and several complications therefrom. He was relatively healthy for the next four years, but he missed time with shoulder soreness last year, and needed surgery to remove bone spurs from that same elbow in the off-season. Matz has missed ten starts this season due to elbow and shoulder soreness, and has not looked good (5.54 ERA, 4.91 FIP) when healthy.

Matz is basically a three-pitch pitcher, utilizing a low-to-mid 90s sinker, a low-to-mid 80s change-up, and an upper-70s curve. He’ll also throw a mid-80s slider, but he has shelved that of late (perhaps due to the injuries).

Last Outing (vs. PHI on 8/12) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K

The Bullpen

The Mets have one of the worst bullpens in baseball by some measures, including park-adjusted ERA (28th in the majors), WPA (26th), and walk rate (28th). And those numbers include Reed, who was the team’s best reliever by a significant margin, and now pitches for the Red Sox.

A.J. Ramos (recently acquired from the Marlins) is the team’s closer for the time being, and he has a track record of success in that role. Jerry Blevins is a quality LOOGY (lefties are batting .181/.230/.191 against him this year), but he’s extremely limited against righties. Paul Sewald, a 27-year-old rookie, handles the set-up duties (3.99 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 28.0 K%, 7.3 BB%), and he has been decent in that role. Erik Goeddel and Josh Smoker handle the middle innings.

Blevins, Sewald, and Ramos all tossed an inning apiece last night, so their availability tonight may be questionable.

Yankees Connection

Granderson played for the Yankees from 2010 through 2013, batting .245/.335/.495 (122 wRC+) with 115 HR and 55 SB in 512 games (2148 PA). The Yankees essentially let him walk in favor of Jacoby Ellsbury in the 2013-14 off-season, and that hasn’t worked out too well.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m most excited for the Gray vs. deGrom match-up on Tuesday, as I’m a sucker for a pitchers’ duel. Of course, I’d rather not see deGrom shut the Yankees offense down – but this has the makings of a terrific match-up.

Shortstop Amed Rosario and first baseman Dominic Smith bear watching, as well. Both have been top-100 prospects for three years running (with Rosario cracking the top-10 this year), and both are getting an opportunity to secure a starting gig at the highest level. And, even with the injury to Gleyber Torres, “Rosario or Torres” will likely be a New York baseball fan debate for the next half-decade or so.