Trevor Bauer Archives - River Avenue Blues

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Thursday

December 13, 2018 by Mike

Come on Yankees please. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The final day of the 2018 Winter Meetings has arrived. These last few days have been pretty boring, huh? There haven’t been any blockbusters and even the rumors have been slow by Winter Meetings standards. (Please trade J.T. Realmuto already. I’m sick of hearing about him.) I guess that’s what happens when half the league is rebuilding and the other half decided to get under the luxury tax threshold at the same time in what was surely one big coincidence (wink wink nudge nudge).

As for the Yankees, they agreed to re-sign lefty J.A. Happ yesterday following a quick tryst with Noah Syndergaard earlier in the week. Happ gets two years and $34M or so with a vesting option. I can live with it. Aside from that, we’ve heard the Yankees connected to guys like Freddy Galvis, Adam Ottavino, and Zach Britton as they look to bolster their bullpen and replace the injured Didi Gregorius. Bullpen help and an infielder are the top priorities now.

“We try to promote we are a progressive, open-minded operation, that every day is different and that we are prepared to pivot and react at any moment,” said Cashman to Bryan Hoch. “If something doesn’t make sense today, it doesn’t mean it won’t make sense tomorrow. All I can keep telling you is, you know where my current focuses are, but at the same time we’re a fully operational Death Star.”

Cashman knows the Death Star got blown up, right? Anyway, the Rule 5 Draft is at 12pm ET today and everyone pretty much heads home after that, so the Winter Meetings are pretty much over. I’m sure some news and rumors and will trickle in though. Here are Monday’s rumors, Tuesday’s rumors, and Wednesday’s rumors, and here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. All timestamps are Eastern Time.

5:32pm: The Yankees are open to adding another starter even after re-signing J.A. Happ, though there is little optimism for a Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer trade with the Indians. I figured that was the case even before the Happ deal. [Marc Carig]
5:29pm: The reliever market “is starting to move” and the Yankees are talking to free agents and potential trade partners, according to assistant GM Mike Fishman. Jeurys Familia (Mets) and Joe Kelly (Dodgers) signed late last night, so the bullpen floodgates should open soon. [Bryan Hoch]
10:02am: The Yankees have asked about “high-end Major League talent” in Sonny Gray trade talks and that is apparently why he has not yet been traded. I have no problem with that. The Yankees (probably) won’t get that high-end talent, but ask for the moon and adjust down as necessary. You never know, some team just might be willing to meet that big initial asking price. Scott Kazmir, Victor Zambrano, etc. etc. [George King]
9:30am: Thanks to Gleyber Torres’ versatility, the Yankees are not prioritizing a shortstop or a second baseman while searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They want the best player regardless of position. “The best decision possible, whatever it happens to be. Clearly, it’s a very deep amount of opportunities in the second base market rather than shortstop. So we’ll just have to decide,” said Brian Cashman. [Brendan Kuty]

The reasons why the Yankees should (and should not) pursue Trevor Bauer over Corey Kluber

December 10, 2018 by Mike

When Patrick Corbin agreed to his six-year contract with the Nationals last week, the Yankees missed out on the best chance to add a pitcher who’s demonstrated top of the rotation ability for nothing but cash this offseason. Dallas Keuchel has a Cy Young to his credit but it’s been a few years since he pitched at that level. Charlie Morton had ace moments this year before finishing the season hurt. J.A. Happ? He’s fine. That’s about it. Fine.

The Yankees have already added one starter with top of the rotation ability in James Paxton and, to make it happen, they had to trade prospects. They’ll have to trade prospects (or big league players) to get another pitcher of that caliber. They’ll have to trade players and find a willing trade partner, which isn’t always easy because high-end starters rarely hit the market. Those guys are crazy valuable and teams try to keep them as long as possible.

Fortunately, one such trade partner exists, and they have two top of the rotation starters to peddle. Earlier this offseason the Indians indicated they’re willing to entertain trade offers for their starters and, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s incredibly team-friendly extension, Ken Rosenthal reports Cleveland will trade either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. Not may trade, will trade. The Indians need to get their payroll in order and the rotation will be the casualty.

Kluber is excellent and has been for years now. Bauer really came into his own this past season before a comebacker broke a bone in his leg in August and forced him to return as a reliever late in the year simply because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched back out as a starter. An unfortunate fluke injury through and through. Kluber is the big name here but is Bauer the better trade target? Let’s compare the pros and cons.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s younger

Five years younger, in fact, and that’s significant. Bauer turns 28 next month and Kluber will turn 33 in April. Kluber, as good as he is, has started to show some signs of decline, specifically in his fastball velocity and his slider whiffs-per-swing rate. Bauer is trending in the other direction. He’s on the way up. And, even if you think 2018 was Bauer’s peak, his age theoretically makes him a better bet to maintain that level of performance going forward than Kluber. I’m not sure either guy offers more upside than the other, but Bauer does have age on his side.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s more luxury tax friendly

Not only is it two years of control (Bauer) vs. three years of control (Kluber), the luxury tax calculation favors Kluber the next two (and likely three) years, albeit slightly. Here’s the salary comparison:

	Bauer	Kluber
2019	$11.6M arbitration projection (via MLBTR)	$17M ($11.7M luxury tax hit)
2020	$18M arbitration guesstimate	$17.5M club option ($16.5M luxury tax hit)
2021	Free agent	$18M club option ($18M luxury tax hit)

Bauer is arbitration-eligible the next two years and that creates some cost uncertainty. If he repeats his 2018 numbers in 2019, he could easily end up with $20M+ in 2020. Kluber’s salaries and luxury tax hits are locked in. His take home salary will exceed Bauer’s next year but his luxury tax hit will be about the same, and he’ll almost certainly that the lower luxury tax number in 2020, and the Yankees seem more concerned with the luxury tax payroll than actual money spent.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s on the upswing

Prior to the leg injury this year Bauer made 25 starts and threw 166 innings with a 2.22 ERA (2.38 FIP) with average ground ball (44.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates and an excellent strikeout rate (31.5%). In the second half last season Bauer threw 83.2 innings with a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.5%) rates. That’s after a 5.24 ERA (4.06 FIP) in the first half. Look at this:

We’ve seen a lot of random one-year aces. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 is the gold standard for random one-year aces and, in recent years, others like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero had their moments as one of those “oh wow he’s an ace now … nevermind” guys. The fact Bauer’s breakout dates back to last year suggests this is more than a fluky one-year blip. He’s a soon-to-be 28-year-old former top prospect entering his prime. That’s a good time to get a guy, you know?

Reason to trade for Kluber: Bauer has some home run regression coming

The single biggest reason for Bauer’s improvement this past season was his sudden ability to limit home runs. From 2014-17, he ran a 1.09 HR/9 (11.9% HR/FB) rate. That is more or less league average. This past season Bauer managed a 0.46 HR/9 (6.2% HR/FB). Hmmm. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the AL East and his home run rate will inevitably climb because that’s the environment.

It’s also likely Bauer will experience some natural homer regression because almost no one is a true talent 6.2% HR/FB pitcher. Batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, among the 444 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings since then, Mariano Rivera has the lowest homer rate at 6.5% HR/FB. The lowest by a starter belongs to Jason Schmidt (7.6% HR/FB). The lowest by an American League starter belongs to Justin Verlander (8.6% HR/FB). So either Bauer’s true talent is suddenly the best home run suppressor of the last 16 years or he’s in for some home run rate correction next year. My money’s on the latter.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’ll probably come cheaper

An additional year of control combined with a much longer track record of excellence suggests it should cost more to acquire Kluber. That said, Kluber is older, and the market will be driven by supply and demand more than anything. Also, Bauer will be cheaper in 2019. The luxury tax hit will be similar, but in terms of actual salary, Bauer will be cheaper. I still think the extra year of control and track record points to Kluber fetching a greater return. I guess we’ll find out.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s not insufferable

My gosh is Bauer a sophomoric turd. A sophomoric turd who’s full of himself. He spent an afternoon last week tweeting pictures of middle fingers at people who made fun of him for his latest drone injury. There’s the Gerrit Cole/Alex Bregman feud (in which he keeps taking Ls). And last month Bauer said he only wants to sign one-year contracts because he’s such a pitching savant that he wants to go to many different teams and help as many young pitchers as possible. Tom Ley called Bauer a “stupid person’s idea of a smart person” earlier this year and it is perfect.

Bauer is very outspoken and he has a knack for saying dumb things. It is part of the Trevor Bauer experience. You don’t get to pick and choose the pieces you want. You get the whole package. MLB has suspended Bauer’s Twitter account on at least one occasion, likely because he told a fan to “quit life,” and every few weeks he says something dumb and controversial. About baseball, about politics, about whatever. In Cleveland, those things blow over quickly. In New York? Nah. Bauer’s a very talented pitcher but also an obvious headache. Kluber is anything but. He is business-like to the point of being boring, and the Yankees like boring. Any team that pursues Bauer will ask themselves “how much nonsense are we willing to live with to get a great pitcher?”

* * *

Rosenthal says the Indians are not interested in attaching a bad contract (like Jason Kipnis) to one of their starters to unload salary. Whichever starter they deal, the Indians want to maximize that starter’s trade value and get as much young talent as possible. They want to make a baseball trade, not a payroll trade. Good for them. I mean, it sucks they have to trade a starter for payroll reasons in the first place, but at least they’re going to focus on talent.

The fact Bauer is younger and entering what should be his prime makes him a more attractive trade target than Kluber, who’s almost certainly already had his best years and is theoretically about to enter his decline phase. That Bauer might not cost as much to acquire is icing on the cake. Kluber will be more luxury tax friendly going forward, albeit slightly, and he undoubtedly would not be as much of a distraction, and those are points in his favor. The New York media would have a field day with Bauer.

With the Yankees having missed out Corbin, they’ll have to trade players to get an impact pitcher now, because that clear-cut high-end starter does not exist in free agency. Happ is fine, Keuchel lost a lot of strikeouts and ground balls this year, and Morton ended the season hurt. Kluber and Bauer are on the short list of the best pitchers in the game and both are available, apparently. The Yankees should of course check in on both guys, and Bauer just might be the better option at this point.

Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and the importance of Game One of the ALDS

October 4, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

A few hours before the Yankees won last night’s Wild Card Game, Indians manager Terry Francona announced Trevor Bauer, not Corey Kluber, will start Game One of the ALDS tomorrow. Kluber is, by almost any measure, the best right-handed pitcher in the AL and the likely AL Cy Young winner. The Tribe are instead giving the ball to Bauer.

“We’re trying to get as much flexibility as we can. There are a lot of factors, but I think we set it up (well). We didn’t try to over-complicate it,” said Francona to Jordan Bastian. “I think for a number of reasons, it makes good sense … The biggest thing was keeping him on his five-day. That was really important to Kluber. That was really the only way we could do it.”

Long story short, the Indians are starting Bauer in Game One because they feel he is better equipped to come back on short rest in Game Four, if necessary. (It’ll be Josh Tomlin if they don’t bring Bauer back on short rest.) They don’t want to use Kluber on short rest (yet) after asking him to do it three times last postseason, including twice in the World Series. As it stands, he can now start Game Two and then Game Five on normal rest. There’s a lot going on here, so let’s talk out how this affects the Yanks.

1. It gives the Yankees a better chance to win Game One. This is very simple. Trevor Bauer is not as good as Corey Kluber, thus the Indians’ chances of winning Game One decrease while the Yankees’ chances of winning Game One increase. How much, exactly? Eh, that’s up for debate. But I’d rather face Bauer than Kluber in any game, let alone a postseason game, roughly a zillion times out of a zillion.

I love Francona as a manager, he’s the best in the business as far as I’m concerned, but I can’t help but wonder if he and the Indians are getting a little too cute here. In the LDS era, the team that wins Game One in the best-of-five series has gone on to win the series 71% of the time. I get the big picture view the Indians are taking, but geez, if this were the Yankees, I’d want them to just start the best pitcher in the league in Game One and try to take an early series lead. In the postseason, the most important game is always the next game on the schedule.

2. Expect Bauer’s leash to be short tomorrow. As we saw last year, Francona is very aggressive with his bullpen in the postseason, and there’s no reason to think this year will be different. Should Bauer struggle early, it won’t be long before Andrew Miller starts warming up. And because the Indians have Kluber lined up for Game Two and can reasonably expect him to pitch deep into the game (because he’s so damn good), Francona might push his top relievers a little more than usual in Game One, knowing he probably won’t need them as much in Game Two.

Point is, the Yankees are going to have to capitalize on Francona’s decision to start Bauer over Kluber in Game One by actually scoring runs against Bauer, before he gets the hook and bullpen comes into play. Bauer faced the Yankees twice during the regular season, both times in the second half, and allowed two runs in 13 innings. If he does something like that again, the Yankees are in trouble. The bullpen will ready to go at a moment’s notice.

3. Game One is basically a must win. No, it is not a literal win or go home must win, but the Yankees do not want to be down 1-0 in the series with Kluber lined up for Game Two. That’s a good recipe for a quick 2-0 series deficit. Even with Chad Green and David Robertson presumably available for Game Two, facing Kluber down in the series is a tough assignment. Every postseason game is important, and that is especially true when trying to avoid having your back up against the wall against a guy like Kluber.

4. It’s gonna rain Friday. The current weather forecast calls for rain pretty much all day in Cleveland on Friday, meaning Game Two might get postponed. Should that happen, the game would be played Saturday, during the scheduled off-day, and Games Two through Four would be played three consecutive days. That’ll screw up each team’s bullpen deployment a bit. It’s also ruin the whole “start Kluber on regular rest in Game Five” plan. If Game Two gets rained out and he has to pitch Saturday instead, Kluber would have to start Game Five on short rest. Hmmm.

* * *

Joe Torre used to say Game Two was the biggest game of the series because you had a chance to go up 2-0 or down 0-2, and that’s why he always started Andy Pettitte in Game Two. He trusted Andy. Of course, that’s easy to say when you have David Cone or David Wells or Rogers Clemens or Mike Mussina to start Game One, not Trevor Bauer. But that’s pretty much the approach the Indians are taking. They’re starting their best in Game Two.

With Kluber looming, the Yankees don’t want to lose Game One and fall behind in the series. They don’t want to lose Game One and fall behind in the series no matter who is pitching Game Two, but with Kluber set to pitch that game, if feels like there’s even more urgency to win Game One. It does to me, anyway. Hopefully the decision to start Bauer backfires and the Yankees can pick up a Game One win against a pitcher not as good as Kluber. If they do that, suddenly it’ll be Kluber on the mound feeling that urgency in Game Two.

Report: Diamondbacks in “active discussions” about Justin Upton

November 7, 2012 by Mike 58 Comments

Via Ken Rosenthal: The Diamondbacks are engaged in “active (trade) discussions” about Justin Upton. The outfielder had the Yankees on his four-team no-trade list this year, but the list has since changed.

Upton, 25, hit .280/.355/.430 (108 wRC+) with 17 homers this year while battling thumb problems. A year ago he was an MVP candidate with 31 homers and a 139 wRC+. Upton is signed through 2015 for a total of $38.5M, or an average annual value of $12.83M. As I’ve said a million times before, the Yankees need to be involved in any talks with Arizona about their right fielder. They might not have the pieces to land him — the D’Backs are reportedly seeking help on the left side of the infield — but they’ve got to at least try. Who knows, maybe Kevin Towers fell in love with some prospects during the year he spent in New York’s front office.

In other news, Jerry Crasnick says the D’Backs will also listen to offers for 21-year-old right-hander Trevor Bauer, who has fallen out of favor with some in the organization. Same thing as Upton here, if he’s truly available, the Yankees need to at least make the call.