Corey Kluber Archives - River Avenue Blues

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Thursday

December 13, 2018 by Mike

Come on Yankees please. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The final day of the 2018 Winter Meetings has arrived. These last few days have been pretty boring, huh? There haven’t been any blockbusters and even the rumors have been slow by Winter Meetings standards. (Please trade J.T. Realmuto already. I’m sick of hearing about him.) I guess that’s what happens when half the league is rebuilding and the other half decided to get under the luxury tax threshold at the same time in what was surely one big coincidence (wink wink nudge nudge).

As for the Yankees, they agreed to re-sign lefty J.A. Happ yesterday following a quick tryst with Noah Syndergaard earlier in the week. Happ gets two years and $34M or so with a vesting option. I can live with it. Aside from that, we’ve heard the Yankees connected to guys like Freddy Galvis, Adam Ottavino, and Zach Britton as they look to bolster their bullpen and replace the injured Didi Gregorius. Bullpen help and an infielder are the top priorities now.

“We try to promote we are a progressive, open-minded operation, that every day is different and that we are prepared to pivot and react at any moment,” said Cashman to Bryan Hoch. “If something doesn’t make sense today, it doesn’t mean it won’t make sense tomorrow. All I can keep telling you is, you know where my current focuses are, but at the same time we’re a fully operational Death Star.”

Cashman knows the Death Star got blown up, right? Anyway, the Rule 5 Draft is at 12pm ET today and everyone pretty much heads home after that, so the Winter Meetings are pretty much over. I’m sure some news and rumors and will trickle in though. Here are Monday’s rumors, Tuesday’s rumors, and Wednesday’s rumors, and here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. All timestamps are Eastern Time.

5:32pm: The Yankees are open to adding another starter even after re-signing J.A. Happ, though there is little optimism for a Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer trade with the Indians. I figured that was the case even before the Happ deal. [Marc Carig]
5:29pm: The reliever market “is starting to move” and the Yankees are talking to free agents and potential trade partners, according to assistant GM Mike Fishman. Jeurys Familia (Mets) and Joe Kelly (Dodgers) signed late last night, so the bullpen floodgates should open soon. [Bryan Hoch]
10:02am: The Yankees have asked about “high-end Major League talent” in Sonny Gray trade talks and that is apparently why he has not yet been traded. I have no problem with that. The Yankees (probably) won’t get that high-end talent, but ask for the moon and adjust down as necessary. You never know, some team just might be willing to meet that big initial asking price. Scott Kazmir, Victor Zambrano, etc. etc. [George King]
9:30am: Thanks to Gleyber Torres’ versatility, the Yankees are not prioritizing a shortstop or a second baseman while searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They want the best player regardless of position. “The best decision possible, whatever it happens to be. Clearly, it’s a very deep amount of opportunities in the second base market rather than shortstop. So we’ll just have to decide,” said Brian Cashman. [Brendan Kuty]

The reasons why the Yankees should (and should not) pursue Trevor Bauer over Corey Kluber

December 10, 2018 by Mike

When Patrick Corbin agreed to his six-year contract with the Nationals last week, the Yankees missed out on the best chance to add a pitcher who’s demonstrated top of the rotation ability for nothing but cash this offseason. Dallas Keuchel has a Cy Young to his credit but it’s been a few years since he pitched at that level. Charlie Morton had ace moments this year before finishing the season hurt. J.A. Happ? He’s fine. That’s about it. Fine.

The Yankees have already added one starter with top of the rotation ability in James Paxton and, to make it happen, they had to trade prospects. They’ll have to trade prospects (or big league players) to get another pitcher of that caliber. They’ll have to trade players and find a willing trade partner, which isn’t always easy because high-end starters rarely hit the market. Those guys are crazy valuable and teams try to keep them as long as possible.

Fortunately, one such trade partner exists, and they have two top of the rotation starters to peddle. Earlier this offseason the Indians indicated they’re willing to entertain trade offers for their starters and, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s incredibly team-friendly extension, Ken Rosenthal reports Cleveland will trade either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. Not may trade, will trade. The Indians need to get their payroll in order and the rotation will be the casualty.

Kluber is excellent and has been for years now. Bauer really came into his own this past season before a comebacker broke a bone in his leg in August and forced him to return as a reliever late in the year simply because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched back out as a starter. An unfortunate fluke injury through and through. Kluber is the big name here but is Bauer the better trade target? Let’s compare the pros and cons.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s younger

Five years younger, in fact, and that’s significant. Bauer turns 28 next month and Kluber will turn 33 in April. Kluber, as good as he is, has started to show some signs of decline, specifically in his fastball velocity and his slider whiffs-per-swing rate. Bauer is trending in the other direction. He’s on the way up. And, even if you think 2018 was Bauer’s peak, his age theoretically makes him a better bet to maintain that level of performance going forward than Kluber. I’m not sure either guy offers more upside than the other, but Bauer does have age on his side.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s more luxury tax friendly

Not only is it two years of control (Bauer) vs. three years of control (Kluber), the luxury tax calculation favors Kluber the next two (and likely three) years, albeit slightly. Here’s the salary comparison:

	Bauer	Kluber
2019	$11.6M arbitration projection (via MLBTR)	$17M ($11.7M luxury tax hit)
2020	$18M arbitration guesstimate	$17.5M club option ($16.5M luxury tax hit)
2021	Free agent	$18M club option ($18M luxury tax hit)

Bauer is arbitration-eligible the next two years and that creates some cost uncertainty. If he repeats his 2018 numbers in 2019, he could easily end up with $20M+ in 2020. Kluber’s salaries and luxury tax hits are locked in. His take home salary will exceed Bauer’s next year but his luxury tax hit will be about the same, and he’ll almost certainly that the lower luxury tax number in 2020, and the Yankees seem more concerned with the luxury tax payroll than actual money spent.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s on the upswing

Prior to the leg injury this year Bauer made 25 starts and threw 166 innings with a 2.22 ERA (2.38 FIP) with average ground ball (44.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates and an excellent strikeout rate (31.5%). In the second half last season Bauer threw 83.2 innings with a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.5%) rates. That’s after a 5.24 ERA (4.06 FIP) in the first half. Look at this:

We’ve seen a lot of random one-year aces. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 is the gold standard for random one-year aces and, in recent years, others like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero had their moments as one of those “oh wow he’s an ace now … nevermind” guys. The fact Bauer’s breakout dates back to last year suggests this is more than a fluky one-year blip. He’s a soon-to-be 28-year-old former top prospect entering his prime. That’s a good time to get a guy, you know?

Reason to trade for Kluber: Bauer has some home run regression coming

The single biggest reason for Bauer’s improvement this past season was his sudden ability to limit home runs. From 2014-17, he ran a 1.09 HR/9 (11.9% HR/FB) rate. That is more or less league average. This past season Bauer managed a 0.46 HR/9 (6.2% HR/FB). Hmmm. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the AL East and his home run rate will inevitably climb because that’s the environment.

It’s also likely Bauer will experience some natural homer regression because almost no one is a true talent 6.2% HR/FB pitcher. Batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, among the 444 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings since then, Mariano Rivera has the lowest homer rate at 6.5% HR/FB. The lowest by a starter belongs to Jason Schmidt (7.6% HR/FB). The lowest by an American League starter belongs to Justin Verlander (8.6% HR/FB). So either Bauer’s true talent is suddenly the best home run suppressor of the last 16 years or he’s in for some home run rate correction next year. My money’s on the latter.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’ll probably come cheaper

An additional year of control combined with a much longer track record of excellence suggests it should cost more to acquire Kluber. That said, Kluber is older, and the market will be driven by supply and demand more than anything. Also, Bauer will be cheaper in 2019. The luxury tax hit will be similar, but in terms of actual salary, Bauer will be cheaper. I still think the extra year of control and track record points to Kluber fetching a greater return. I guess we’ll find out.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s not insufferable

My gosh is Bauer a sophomoric turd. A sophomoric turd who’s full of himself. He spent an afternoon last week tweeting pictures of middle fingers at people who made fun of him for his latest drone injury. There’s the Gerrit Cole/Alex Bregman feud (in which he keeps taking Ls). And last month Bauer said he only wants to sign one-year contracts because he’s such a pitching savant that he wants to go to many different teams and help as many young pitchers as possible. Tom Ley called Bauer a “stupid person’s idea of a smart person” earlier this year and it is perfect.

Bauer is very outspoken and he has a knack for saying dumb things. It is part of the Trevor Bauer experience. You don’t get to pick and choose the pieces you want. You get the whole package. MLB has suspended Bauer’s Twitter account on at least one occasion, likely because he told a fan to “quit life,” and every few weeks he says something dumb and controversial. About baseball, about politics, about whatever. In Cleveland, those things blow over quickly. In New York? Nah. Bauer’s a very talented pitcher but also an obvious headache. Kluber is anything but. He is business-like to the point of being boring, and the Yankees like boring. Any team that pursues Bauer will ask themselves “how much nonsense are we willing to live with to get a great pitcher?”

* * *

Rosenthal says the Indians are not interested in attaching a bad contract (like Jason Kipnis) to one of their starters to unload salary. Whichever starter they deal, the Indians want to maximize that starter’s trade value and get as much young talent as possible. They want to make a baseball trade, not a payroll trade. Good for them. I mean, it sucks they have to trade a starter for payroll reasons in the first place, but at least they’re going to focus on talent.

The fact Bauer is younger and entering what should be his prime makes him a more attractive trade target than Kluber, who’s almost certainly already had his best years and is theoretically about to enter his decline phase. That Bauer might not cost as much to acquire is icing on the cake. Kluber will be more luxury tax friendly going forward, albeit slightly, and he undoubtedly would not be as much of a distraction, and those are points in his favor. The New York media would have a field day with Bauer.

With the Yankees having missed out Corbin, they’ll have to trade players to get an impact pitcher now, because that clear-cut high-end starter does not exist in free agency. Happ is fine, Keuchel lost a lot of strikeouts and ground balls this year, and Morton ended the season hurt. Kluber and Bauer are on the short list of the best pitchers in the game and both are available, apparently. The Yankees should of course check in on both guys, and Bauer just might be the better option at this point.

Signing Manny Machado is the Best Path to a Dominant Rotation

December 8, 2018 by Bobby Montano

They’re talking about winning the World Series in the Bronx. (Getty Images)

The Yankees did not sign this year’s top free agent starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin will instead have six tries to help the Washington Nationals win their first playoff series. Many Yankee fans, myself included, believed that Corbin represented the Yanks’ best path to creating a dominant rotation—but the reality is that he was never the only option. The Indians are reportedly “increasingly motivated” to move Corey Kluber (and another very good but not-to-be-named starter) and the Yankees should do everything they can to acquire him.

That will not be easy. The Yankees once stacked farm system has depleted significantly over the last several years—and even if that depletion was for all of the right reasons, it significantly complicates any effort to trade for an ace. But it is not impossible. If the Yankees decide to flex their financial muscles and sign Manny Machado, it will make available precisely the type of talent needed to trade for a pitcher of Corey Kluber’s status. Let’s break this one down step-by-step.

Signing Machado

The case to sign Machado, of course, is a simple one to make. The 26-year-old should be one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history, boasting a career .282/.335/.487 (120 wRC+) line in just over 4,000 plate appearances. Like Bryce Harper (who they should also sign), he is just now entering his prime—meaning he should, in theory at least, be as good as he’ll ever be in the next four seasons or so.

That alone should put him on every team’s radar. The fact that he has posted a wRC+ greater than 130 in three of the last four seasons (with the fourth being a down year in 2017 that was clearly an outlier) ought to only sweeten the deal. In each of those seasons, he has hit at least 33 home runs. And last year, when he hit .297/.367/.548 (141 wRC+) with 37 home runs, was the most productive of his career.

Machado is about as good as it gets offensively. Defensively, the story is a bit murkier—but it doesn’t have to be. He switched positions from third to short in 2018 with mixed results. He struggled with the analytically-inept Baltimore Orioles but, if the data is to believed, he seemed to benefit from better positioning in Los Angeles. As a third baseman, though, Machado is as impressive a defender as I can remember seeing, an observation supported by most defensive metrics.

Even though he prefers shortstop (his natural position), Machado is reportedly willing to shift back to the hot corner if it meant playing in the Bronx. That is exactly what the Yankees should insist, and not just the Yanks are loaded with groundball pitchers and struggle with infield defense. Doing so would also allow the Yankees to slide Gleyber Torres to short until Didi Gregorius returns while slotting Machado in at third—opening up Miguel Andújar to be the centerpiece in a package for a top-shelf starting pitcher like Corey Kluber.

Saying Goodbye to Miggy Mantle

Don’t worry: you’ll be reunited at the ASG. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The case to trade Andújar, unlike signing Machado, is a bit more difficult to make. Miggy Mantle burst onto the scene in 2018, hitting .297/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) with 27 home runs in just over 600 plate appearances. His ability to make hard contact on almost any pitch and drive it is a rare offensive skill—and it is the reason why he hit so many balls for extra bases in 2018. Andújar quickly became one of my favorite Yanks, and it is hard to imagine what the 2018 squad would have been like without Andújar’s steady performance.

But that does not mean that it would not make sense to say goodbye. Andújar’s defense is a work in progress to put it kindly, and that was enough to have him be replaced in the 6^th (!) inning of the Wild Card Game this October for defensive reasons. That the team didn’t start or pinch hit him in the deciding game of the ALDS suggests that these worries may run deep in the front office—even if that decision, in my opinion, was an obvious tactical blunder.

Andújar will start 2019 at age 24—but Machado will begin the season at age 26. In fact, replacing Andújar with Machado is one of the few ways where the Yankees would get a significant defensive upgrade in the infield without sacrificing any offensive value, and Machado is an even better hitter than Andújar to boot.

Miggy’s trade value figures to be about as high as any player in the league—any 23 year-old who put up those offensive numbers at the league minimum salary will get teams interested. Even with his obvious defensive warts, another team may see a way to improve his defense at the hot corner, or perhaps they see a future for him in left field ala Ryan Braun or at first base. But in any case, Andújar is the type of talent who commands a large return.

Welcoming Corey Kluber

His number has some meaning. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

The pertinent question, now, is if a package based around Andújar would be enough to entice Cleveland to say goodbye to one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 32-year-old ace has won two of the last five AL Cy Youngs—finishing no lower than 3^rd in overall voting with one win in the last three years—and it is clear why. Since 2014, Kluber has posted a 2.85 ERA (152 ERA+) with a 2.84 FIP over 1091.1 innings. He has struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that with less than 2 walks per 9 innings across that stretch, with a WHIP just barely over 1. There are few signs of decline: he is just one of the best pitchers in the league.

If Cleveland will be cheap enough to ship him off in a trade while in the middle of their own (alleged) title run, then the Yankees should simply do everything they can to bring him to the Bronx—even if that means trading one of the league’s most exciting young pieces. Cleveland has a very good infield as it is, but they did just trade for Josh Donaldson last year, so they have been willing to add offense to that infield as recently as last summer.

On the Yankees side, the need is obvious. Adding Kluber as the final piece of a rotation that already includes Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia would position the Yankees to have a truly dominating staff in 2019 and 2020. To me, that’s easily worth the haul it would take to get him, which would likely be Andújar+. Always trade your prospects for dominating starting pitchers. Just look a bit to the north to see why.

Will it Happen?

To sum up, this plan involves shelling out a significant sum of money (likely more than $300 million) on Manny Machado and then turning around and trading one of their most exciting young (and thus cheapest) players. It still isn’t clear that the Yankees are willing to take on that much salary—though Kluber would be a steal at his current contract, especially compared to Patrick Corbin.

But what is clear is that this path is out there and isn’t that far-fetched. The Yankees have always had interest in Machado, and he’d take all of the sting away from losing Andújar. Meanwhile, the team would be in a position to get a starting pitching upgrade beyond any of our wildest dreams even eight weeks ago.

As Yankee Twitter’s Thought Leader and Official Friend of RAB™ put it the other day, a path like this is really the easiest and most straightforward way to create a roster that would likely be the World Series favorites on Opening Day. And if the Yankees spend as they can, they have the chance to add two prime-aged generational talents alongside one of the league’s best starting pitchers to their already loaded roster. It’s been a decade since the Yankees have won the championship, and now the only thing standing between them and their best shot since 2009 is Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to spend.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Scouting the Trade Market: Corey Kluber

November 14, 2018 by Mike

You know baseball is kinda screwed up when, despite record high league revenues, a reigning three-time division champ is said to be willing to move veterans to get their payroll in order. Earlier this month Buster Olney reported the Indians will “listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter as they face the sort of difficult choices that small-market teams must address.” Cleveland’s decision-makers did not deny that report.

“We will be creative in looking at ways to improve our team,” president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said to Ryan Lewis at the GM Meetings last week. “That’s one way in which we could do that. It’s not the only way. But it’s certainly one of the avenues we could pursue is to trade from an area of depth to address another area of our team.”

Among players making real money, the belief is everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That means the Indians are open to discussing members of their vaunted rotation, including Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, who the Yankees reportedly discussed with Cleveland last week. The GM Meetings are a good opportunity to meet face-to-face and Brian Cashman did exactly that with Antonetti & Co. last week.

Does Kluber make sense for the Yankees? Of course. He’s on the very short list of the best pitchers in MLB and tonight he could win his third Cy Young. It’ll probably go to Blake Snell, but Kluber is a finalist, which means he’s going to finish in the top three of the Cy Young voting for the fourth time in the last five years. He’s really good. Let’s take a look at the apparently available Corey Kluber, shall we?

Background

Most aces you can see coming a mile away. They’re usually former first round picks or high-profile international signings, and top prospects in the minors. Kluber was none of those things. He grew up near Dallas, played his college ball at Stetson, and was a fourth round pick by the Padres in 2007. San Diego sent him to the Indians in a three-team trade at the 2010 deadline. The deal:

Indians get: Corey Kluber
Cardinals get: Jake Westbrook, Nick Greenwood
Padres get: Ryan Ludwick

Kluber made the jump from interesting minor league arm to big league ace with the Indians. He never appeared on a top 100 prospects list and never ranked higher than 26th on his team’s top 30 list in Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook. Crazy, eh? Kluber, 32, owns a career 3.09 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 1,306 big league innings and has won two Cy Youngs (2014, 2017).

Performance

It is awfully good. Since 2014, the year he became Corey freakin’ Kluber, Kluber leads all pitchers with +31.0 fWAR and is second with +32.5 bWAR. (Max Scherzer leads with +34.8 bWAR). Again, this dude is on the very short list of the best pitchers in the game.

Normally when looking at a player’s performance, I go back three years. In Kluber’s case, I’m going back five, only because I appreciate the consistency of his greatness. His ERA jumps around a bit because that’s baseball. Everything else holds fairly steady. Check it out:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	RHB wOBA	LHB wOBA
2014	235.2	2.44	2.35	28.3	5.4	48.0	0.53	.246	.304
2015	222	3.49	2.97	27.7	5.1	42.4	0.89	.238	.322
2016	215	3.14	3.26	26.4	6.6	44.5	0.92	.266	.284
2017	203.2	2.25	2.50	34.1	4.6	44.5	0.93	.230	.251
2018	215	2.89	3.12	26.4	4.0	44.4	1.05	.250	.290

Lordy. Last season was an outlier in terms of strikeouts. Otherwise Kluber’s run a strikeout rate in the 26.4% to 28.3% range the last few years, a low walk rate, a ground ball rate right at the league average, and he’s given up one homer every nine innings or so. He chews up righties and merely dominates lefties. Year in and year out, it’s the same Corey Kluber, and that Corey Kluber is very good.

That consistency extends to his quality-of-contact numbers as well. We only have four years worth of Statcast data at this point, and from 2015-18, Kluber has posted expected wOBAs of .282, .281, .254, and .276. Again, that 2017 season is a bit of an outlier. That was likely Kluber’s career year. His other years are still outstanding. Tons of strikeouts, few walks, and a lot of favorable contact. Patrick Corbin had a big increase in strikeouts and a big decline in home runs this year. James Paxton’s home run rate increased. Kluber, meanwhile, was the same guy he’s always been.

Current Stuff

I’m not sure anything Kluber throws is straight. He more or less shelved his four-seamer this year and committed to the sinker as his primary fastball. Kluber also throws a wicked slider that looks like it belongs in a video game …

… a slightly less wicked cutter, and the occasional changeup. He throws the sinker and cutter roughly 30% of the time each and the slider about 22% of the time, so they are his main pitches. Kluber throws all three to righties and lefties. Only lefties get the changeup and the four-seamer is basically a show-me pitch to batters on both sides of the plate. I wouldn’t necessarily call it electric stuff because he’s not throwing in the upper-90s, but it sure is nasty stuff though. Here’s some video:

As you might suspect, Kluber runs a very high whiffs-per-swing rate on his slider (38.0%) and a solid ground ball rate on his sinker (52.7%). That has been the case consistently over the years. The biggest difference between 2017 Kluber and all-other-years Kluber is the cutter. Batters missed with 37.4% (!) of their swings against the cutter last year. In all other years, it’s right around 30.0%. (29.1% in 2018.) That 30.0% is really good! But 37.4% is bonkers.

Given his age (33 in April) and his workload (1,136.2 innings since 2014, postseason included, the most in baseball), it is no surprise Kluber is starting to lose some velocity. It has been a gradual decline the last few years, not a sudden drop. From 2014-18, his average sinker velocity has gone from 94.2 mph to 93.8 mph to 93.4 mph to 92.9 mph to 92.6 mph. Like I said, gradual. Here’s the graph:

Velocity loss is part of life. It happens to pretty much every pitcher. Kluber has remained (extremely) effective while losing velocity and I think he has the tools and the pitching know-how to continue to be effective going forward. There’s going to come a point where he’s not an ace anymore, but the stuff is there to suggest Kluber still has a few years to go as an above-average starter. Maybe I’m dead wrong. It’s been known to happen. There aren’t many pitchers in the game I would take going into their mid-30s over Kluber though.

Injury History

You don’t throw over 1,100 innings in a five-year span by getting hurt a bunch. Kluber’s been on the disabled list twice in his career. He missed a month with a finger sprain in 2013 and a month with a back strain in 2017. Kluber’s only arm injury came way back in high school. He suffered a stress fracture in his elbow as a senior and they had to insert two screws in there to stabilize things. He’s had no elbow (or shoulder) problems since.

I do think it’s worth noting that Kluber has seemed to wear down late in the season the last few years. He made three starts on short rest during the 2016 postseason and clearly wasn’t himself in his two 2017 ALDS starts or his lone 2018 ALDS start. Going forward, maybe it’s best to treat him as a 180-inning guy rather than a 210-inning guy? If possible, that is. Him team might need to push him down the stretch to get to the postseason. If possible though, scaling back on the soon-to-be 33-year-old who’s thrown over 1,100 innings the last five years seems worthwhile.

Contract Status

The Indians signed Kluber to a bargain five-year contract worth only $38.5M (!) guaranteed back in April 2015. He only had two years of service time at the time, but still, the dude just won the Cy Young and couldn’t get $10M annually? Crazy. The 2019 season is the final guaranteed year on that contract, though there are club options for 2020 and 2021. Here’s the breakdown:

	Actual Salary	Luxury Tax Hit
2019	$17M	$11.7M†
2020	$17.5M option ($1M buyout)	$16.5M
2021	$18M option ($1M buyout)	$18M*

* The $1M buyout isn’t subtracted from the luxury tax hit in 2021 because it is not guaranteed money. Kluber doesn’t get the $1M buyout in 2021 if he’s bought out in 2020. Only the $1M buyout in 2020 is guaranteed and thus lumped in with the first five years of the contract for luxury tax purposes.

Originally, the 2020 and 2021 options were worth $13.5M and $14M, respectively, but Kluber has already hit all his Cy Young voting based escalators and increased the option year salaries. I’ve seen a few sites incorrectly list the options as $13.5M and $14M. That’s wrong. Kluber hit all his escalators and they’re worth $17.5M and $18M now. Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

† Five years and $38.5M equals a $7.7M average annual value and thus a $7.7M luxury tax hit. However, Kluber maxed out his $4M in escalators for 2019, so that $4M in bonuses gets tacked on to his 2019 luxury tax number. That’s how $7.7M becomes $11.7M.

I should also note that while Kluber does not have a no-trade clause, he does get a $1M bonus each times he’s traded. Sometimes teams split the assignment bonus — the Yankees and Padres split Chase Headley’s $1M bonus last winter — but the Yankees may have to pay the $1M, which would get applied to their 2019 luxury tax hit. Bonuses are luxury taxable. That bargain $11.7M luxury tax hit could become a slightly less bargainy $12.7M after the trade.

Anyway, that is a steal of a contract, both in terms of actual salary and luxury tax hit. It is effectively a series of three one-year contracts that can max out at $53.5M when you include the trade bonus. Kluber would get double that had he been a free agent this offseason. Maybe triple. The luxury tax hits are low (especially in 2019), and, if there’s a catastrophic injury at some point in the next two years, you can walk away and be off the hook financially.

What’s It Going To Cost?

How often does an ace-caliber starter with three years of control get traded? Not often at all. We do have close to a perfect trade match here, however: Chris Sale. Like Kluber, Sale was traded after five Cy Young caliber seasons and with three years of control, and, also like Kluber, it was one guaranteed year plus two club option years. Here’s what the Red Sox gave up to acquire Sale:

Yoan Moncada (global top three prospect)
Michael Kopech (global top 30 prospect)
Luis Alexander Basabe (organizational top ten prospect)
Victor Diaz (organizational fringe top 30 prospect)

Moncada hasn’t lived up to the hype since the trade but we can’t look at it that way. Hindsight doesn’t work. At the time of the trade, Moncada was regarded as a future star and arguably the top prospect in the game. It would’ve been akin to trading a perfectly healthy (i.e. no Tommy John surgery) Gleyber Torres prior to this past season. That’s what the Red Sox had to give up to get Sale. Arguably the top prospect in the game (plus more).

The Sale trade provides framework for a potential Kluber trade, but there are some key differences between the two. One, Sale was four years younger at the time of his trade than Kluber is now. That’s significant. Two, Sale’s contract was cheaper. He’ll be paid $39.5M during his three years (2017-19) with Boston. Kluber is owed $53.5M from 2019-21. A $14M difference spread across three years isn’t much, but it’s not nothing either.

And three, the Indians are going to try to win next season (I think). The AL Central is still theirs for the taking. It’s not crazy to think they could trade Kluber, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in the game, and still be division favorites going into next season. The AL Central is that bad. The Sale trade, meanwhile, kicked off a rebuild for the White Sox. They could take prospects in return. The Indians presumably want players who can help right away.

From where I sit, I don’t see why the Indians would trade Kluber to the Yankees without getting Torres or Miguel Andujar in return. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and he’s on an affordable contract. Why trade that guy for prospects? You need to get a stud young big leaguer as the package headliner, especially if you’re trying to win next year. Who knows what the Indians want though. Point is, it’ll hurt to get Kluber. Guys like him don’t come cheap.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Absolutely. It’s easy to get a little squeamish about his age and workload, but, at the end of the day, Kluber remains an elite pitcher, and his contract is not onerous. His contract situation is about as favorable as it gets, in fact. And even if his performance slips a bit, he’s starting from such a high baseline that he could still be an above-average starter. The Yankees need rotation help and, in terms of expected production in 2019 and beyond, I’d take Kluber over every free agent starter as well as Paxton, the other big name trade candidate.

That all said, there is an acquisition cost to consider. Is it better to give up prospects and young big leaguers to get Kluber, or simply spend money (plus a draft pick and international bonus money) to get Corbin? Does the prospect cost make Paxton a better bang for the buck? That all has to be considered. Generally speaking, when prospects are traded for an ace, the team that gets the ace rarely regrets it (see: Sale, Chris). If all it takes is prospects, the Yankees should do it immediately. If it takes Gleyber or Andujar, well, it’s still worth serious consideration, but the decision isn’t quite as obvious.

Hot Stove Rumors: Kluber, Carrasco, Paxton, Machado, Happ

November 6, 2018 by Mike

The GM Meetings are being held in Carlsbad, California this week and usually that means news — the Aaron Hicks trade went down at the GM Meetings — or at least some rumors and soundbites. “The Red Sox winning doesn’t change the hunger level of trying to deliver a championship for our fan base,” said Brian Cashman to Erik Boland yesterday. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees will talk Kluber, Carrasco with Indians

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees either will meet or have already met with the Indians today to discuss right-handers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland will reportedly listen to offers for their top veteran players this offseason because a) every team listens to offers for everyone, and b) they are a small budget team and they’re running out of money. Supposedly everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That doesn’t mean the Indians are giving their veterans away, but they do seem to be available.

Kluber (2.89 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 2018) and Carrasco (3.38 ERA and 2.94 FIP) are both excellent and signed affordably. Assuming their options are picked up, Kluber is owed $52.5M from 2019-21 and Carrasco is owed $19.25M from 2019-20. They’re both over 30 (Kluber turns 33 in April, Carrasco turns 32 in March), but they are exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees crave. Front of the rotation arms who rack up strikeouts and are on affordable contracts. I don’t see why the Indians would trade either Kluber or Carrasco without getting Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar (and more) in return. These aren’t guys you get for three or four prospects you don’t like.

Yankees interested in Paxton

In addition to Kluber and Carrasco, the Yankees also have interest in southpaw James Paxton, reports Heyman. The Mariners are reportedly considering a rebuild. They haven’t been to the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie season in 2001 — The Mariners have the longest active postseason drought in North American sports — despite spending a ton of money and gutting the farm system to make win-now trades in recent years. They’re at least considering a full teardown.

Paxton, who turns 30 today, threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 208 strikeouts this season. He is under control through 2020. For me, Paxton is clearly behind Kluber and Carrasco on the trade preference list. Those two are Plan A and Plan B (either order is arguable) and Paxton is Plan C. He has a very long injury history and I think the Mariners are going to demand an ace price for a guy who isn’t really an ace. Don’t get me wrong, Paxton’s quite good and would be a significant upgrade for the Yankees. I just prefer Kluber and Carrasco.

Yankees will check in on Machado

Despite being “lukewarm” about Manny Machado, the Yankees will check in on the free agent infielder, and their interest level depends on the asking price, reports Heyman. Cashman ducked the Machado question, as you’d expect. “I’m going to be engaging the entire landscape in the free agent market … We will make sure we check every box in terms of what’s available and the cost associated with what’s available in both marketplaces, free agency and trades,” he said to Brendan Kuty.

To sign Machado (or Bryce Harper), one of two things will have to happen. Either the Yankees will have to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, or they’ll have to shed salary elsewhere and go cheap on pitching. Only one of those two options makes sense for a team with New York’s revenues. There’s a very anti-Machado sentiment that exists right now and I totally get it after his postseason, but this is a 26-year-old infielder who hit .297/.367/.538 (141 wRC+) with 37 homers this season and is a true talent +6 WAR player. How often do you get a chance to acquire someone like that for just cash?

Yankees would like to re-sign Sabathia, Happ

The Yankees would like to re-sign CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, Cashman told Ronald Blum. “He’s been a great Yankee, and he has time on the clock still. I think he’d like to stay, and I think we’d like to keep him,” Cashman said about Sabathia. As for Happ, Cashman said: “I would think that there’ll be a lot of interest in him. He has a great reputation throughout the game as a pro, and the performance level was exactly what we needed. So he put himself in a good position as a free agent.”

For what it’s worth, Heyman says Happ and Patrick Corbin are the team’s two top pitching targets. That definitely passes the sniff test. Cashman mentioned yesterday the Yankees are looking to add multiple starters and they’ve reportedly been after Corbin for a while, and obviously they like Happ enough that they traded for him and started him in ALDS Game One. I do worry about Happ’s declining four-seam fastball spin rate, which is kind of a big deal for a guy who throws so many heaters, especially up in the zone. As for bringing Sabathia back, I am all for it. Get it done.

Cashman reiterates intention to trade Gray

Not surprisingly, Cashman reiterated his intention to trade Sonny Gray this offseason. He’s been very candid about this. “We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him, that are interested.”

I get the feeling Gray is either going to be traded very early in the offseason, as in within the next week or two, or very late, as in February or even after Spring Training begins. Don’t ask me why. Just a hunch. I still believe the Brewers are the most logical fit but man, who in the world knows? Gray was really good outside Yankee Stadium (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP) and he has a strong track record, so it would seem lots of teams would be interested in buying low. Then again, he was so bad this year that I wouldn’t be surprised if teams shy away. We’ll see. I think the Yankees will end up with a better than expected return for Sonny. Pitching is always in demand.

Scouting Game Two of the ALDS: Corey Kluber

October 6, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Three days ago, when Indians manager Terry Francona announced Corey Kluber would start Game Two of the ALDS rather than Game One, it seemed … questionable. Kluber is arguably the best pitcher in the league and you’d think they’d want to go with their best to start the series to try to get a quick lead. Instead, Trevor Bauer got the ball so Kluber could start Game Two and potentially Game Five on normal rest.

Now, following Game One, that move looks genius. Bauer was masterful in Game One last night, holding the Yankees to two hits in 6.2 innings, and the Indians now have a shot to take a two games to none series lead with Kluber on the mound this afternoon. The Yankees are in trouble. There’s no sugarcoating it. Kluber threw 203.2 innings with a 2.25 ERA (2.50 FIP) and hysterical strikeout (34.1%) and walk (4.6%) rates during the regular season. He’s a monster.

Of course, Kluber can be beat. He took four losses during the regular season and 13 times in his 29 starts he exited the game with the score tied or the Indians trailing. On three other occasions the Indians had a one-run lead when Kluber was pulled. Those are winnable games! The Yankees are probably going to need to employ the old Pedro Martinez strategy to win tonight — wait out Kluber and beat the bullpen. Let’s look at the Indians’ ace.

History Against The Yankees

Tonight will be Kluber’s eighth career start against the Yankees, and in those eight starts he has a 1.80 ERA (2.60 FIP) with a .185/.225/.326 batting line against in 50 innings. That includes two starts this season, in which he allowed three runs in 17 total innings. Kluber has thoroughly dominated the Yankees in his career.

Players currently on the Yankees’ ALDS roster have hit a combined .155/.204/.250 with a 28.0% strikeout rate in 157 career plate appearances against Kluber. That dates all the way back to his rookie season in 2011, however, before he went from Corey Kluber to Corey effin’ Kluber. Here’s how the Yankees have fared against Kluber the last three seasons, via Baseball Reference:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Todd Frazier	24	22	3	0	0	2	2	8	.136	.208	.136	.345
Aaron Hicks	22	19	3	1	0	1	3	6	.158	.273	.211	.483
Brett Gardner	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	.154	.214	.154	.368
Didi Gregorius	13	13	2	1	0	0	0	2	.154	.154	.231	.385
Starlin Castro	12	12	2	0	0	0	0	3	.167	.167	.167	.333
Jacoby Ellsbury	12	11	1	1	0	0	1	0	.091	.167	.182	.348
Chase Headley	9	9	1	0	1	1	0	3	.111	.111	.444	.556
Gary Sanchez	9	9	2	1	1	2	0	4	.222	.222	.667	.889
Ronald Torreyes	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333
Austin Romine	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Greg Bird	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Matt Holliday	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000
Total	129	121	17	4	2	6	7	35	.140	.194	.223	.417

Now here’s how Yankees on the ALDS roster have fared against Kluber the last three seasons in meme form:

Noticeably absent from that table: Aaron Judge. He did not play in either of Kluber’s two starts against the Yankees this season, nor did he face him last year. Going into a postseason game having never seen Kluber is also not great, Bob.

Also, allow me to note Ellsbury is 5-for-19 (.263) with two doubles against Kluber in his career, which is probably why he is in today’s lineup. That is broken down into 4-for-8 from 2011-14 and 1-for-11 from 2015-17. Shrugs.

Pitch Selection

There are not too many pitchers in baseball who can match Kluber’s stuff. He is a five-pitch pitcher, though his straight four-seam fastball and fading changeup are distant fourth and fifth pitches. The sinker, slider, and cutter are his main three pitches. Here’s how one player described Kluber to Joel Sherman recently:

One frequent opponent likened Kluber to vintage Roy Halladay because “There is nothing straight. He doesn’t throw many four-seam fastballs. The ball darts both ways, and he is so precise that he can pitch to the quarter of the plate. You won’t get much over the middle of the plate. His cutter is so deceptive that guys come back over and over to the dugout saying they were right on the pitch, and then it was off their sweet spot.”

Here, via Brooks Baseball, is Kluber’s pitch selection against right-handed and left-handed batters during the regular season:

When he’s ahead in the count, Kluber is going to try to put the hitter away with the slider, both righties and lefties. It’s so good he can use it against batters on both sides of the plate. For the most part, his pitch selection split is fairly small. Lots of sinkers, cutters, and sliders against everyone. A few more changeups against lefties, though not a ton.

Here is every pitch from Kluber’s three-hit shutout of the terrible White Sox — to be fair, Kluber makes just about everyone look terrible — back on April 21st:

I’m not sure how anyone ever gets a hit against this guy. You basically have to hope he makes a mistake. His pitcher’s pitches don’t get hit. If Kluber throws you a fastball, you don’t know if it’s a cutter or sinker until it’s about halfway to the plate, and by then your brain is already telling your arms to start swinging. If he throws you a slider, well, good luck.

Platoon Splits

Kluber does have a platoon split, but it is a small one, and he’s so damn good against righties that he’s starting from a very low baseline. He dominates lefties too, just not as much as righties. His 2017 numbers:

vs. RHB: .185/.218/.321 (.230 wOBA), 36.6%, 4.4 BB%
vs. LHB: .199/.255/.321 (.251 wOBA), 31.3 K%, 6.0 BB%

Great pitcher is great against hitters on both sides of the plate. News at 11.

Can The Yankees Run On Him?

Yes! You need to get runners on base first and that’s a tall order, but opponents went 15-for-20 (75%) stealing bases against Kluber this season, and that’s with the great catch-and-throw tandem of Roberto Perez (43% caught stealing) and Yan Gomes (42%) behind the plate. Last season runners went only 4-for-11 (36%) stealing bases against Kluber, but the year before it was 16-for-23 (70%). I wonder what the fluctuation is about. Maybe just sample size?

I am generally anti-stolen base, especially early in the game — just let the game’s best home run hitting team swing the bat with men on base! — but if the Yankees have an opening with either Gardner or Ellsbury (or Hicks), it might be worth letting them try to steal. You can’t count on stringing together walks and base hits against Kluber. It’s a risk. No doubt. But sometimes you have to take risks to beat the best.

* * *

Against a pitcher like Kluber, a legitimate ace at the peak of his powers, there’s not a whole lot you can do other than a) hope he makes some mistakes, and b) try to work long at-bats to get him out of the game as quickly as possible. If he’s on, forget it. There won’t be much the Yankees can do, as defeatist as that sounds. Kluber can be beat. Absolutely. It’ll just take pretty much everything going right for the Yankees.