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Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Corbin, Eovaldi, Miller

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Machado. (Harry How/Getty)

It’s been five years since the last notable transaction on Christmas Eve (Dodgers signed Jamey Wright in 2013) and 13 years since the last notable transaction on Christmas Day (Angels re-signed Tim Salmon in 2005). Will we get a Christmas deal this year? Probably not! But maybe. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado decision will come in 2019

According to Jon Heyman, Manny Machado has let teams know his free agent decision won’t come until after New Years. Does that mean soon after New Years, as in sometime next week, or after New Years in general, as in potentially mid-to-late January (or even later)? I guess we’ll find out. Machado visited the White Sox and Phillies in addition to the Yankees last week and those three teams are believed to be his most serious (only?) suitors.

Not surprisingly, there have been reports indicating the Yankees will only sign Machado at their price, which is said to be something south of ten years and $300M. Those “the Yankees will only sign/trade for him at their price” rumors are pretty common these days. It behooves the Yankees to downplay their interest to prevent other teams from driving up the price. I get the feeling the Phillies will not be outbid for Machado. The Yankees might have to step outside their comfort zone to make this happen.

Yankees are a “lead” team for Britton

The Yankees are among the “lead” teams for free agent lefty Zach Britton, reports Heyman. The Phillies are in that mix as well. The Yankees are looking to add two relievers this offseason and they’ve been connected to Britton basically since the end of the season. He’s said he’d “love to be back” with New York as well, so there’s mutual interest. That said, money talks, and this may be Britton’s only chance at a huge free agent payday.

Between the Orioles and Yankees this past season the just turned 31-year-old Britton posted a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) with an okay strikeout rate (20.1%), a high walk rate (12.4%), and an excellent ground ball rate (73.0%). He was much better as he got further away from his offseason Achilles surgery. The Yankees have about $16M to spend under the $197M luxury tax threshold assuming Sonny Gray and his projected $9.1M salary are traded away at some point. Britton would presumably eat up most of that $16M in payroll space.

Yankees didn’t make offers to Corbin, Eovaldi, Miller

The Yankees never made official contracts offers to former free agent hurlers Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Miller according to Jack Curry, Erik Boland, and Andy Martino. This is all semantics and it gets talked about every offseason. The two sides talked contract terms, of course, but the Yankees never presented an official offer to be signed. That’s all. They discussed money and tried to found common ground and that’s the most important thing.

Once the holidays pass, the Yankees will have a lot to do before Spring Training, most notably securing a Didi Gregorius replacement and bulking up the bullpen. I get the sense the Gregorius replacement will go one of two ways. Either the Yankees will go big and sign Machado, or they’ll go cheap and sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias in February. Offers or no offers, the Yankees still have a lot to do this winter. The first few weeks after New Years should be busy.

Another starter off the board: Eovaldi returns to Red Sox

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Another free agent starting pitching option has come off the board. According to multiple reports former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi has agreed to a new deal to return to the Red Sox. It’s said to be a four-year contract worth approximately $17M per season. We haven’t even reached the Winter Meetings yet and already Eovaldi and Patrick Corbin have signed.

The Yankees were never seriously connected to Eovaldi this offseason. A few weeks ago it was reported they were not among his early suitors, then, earlier this week, the Yankees were said to have “engaged” Eovaldi, presumably after they learned they were out on Corbin. Eovaldi was linked to the Red Sox more than any other team this offseason. The Astros were also said to be in the mix.

Personally, passing on Eovaldi was an easy decision for me. I like the guy and I’m glad he got paid after all he’s dealt with in his career. But a two-time Tommy John surgery guy who lives and dies with max effort velocity is risky as hell. More risk than I’m willing to assume at that price. Also, the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” profile is fool’s gold more often than not.

With Corbin and Eovaldi off the board, the three best free agent starters still on the market are J.A. Happ, Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton. The Yankees have been connected to Happ all offseason. Keuchel and Morton, not so much. The Yankees still have an open rotation spot even after re-signing CC Sabathia and trading for James Paxton. How they plan to fill it is anyone’s guess.

Hot Stove Rumors: Eovaldi, Lynn, Happ, Soria, Gray, Brewers

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Eovaldi. (Harry How/Getty)

Patrick Corbin is a Washington National and Paul Goldschmidt is a St. Louis Cardinal. He’s been traded for four players and a draft pick. Despite their first base situation, the Yankees were never seriously connected to Goldschmidt this winter. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings as the Yankees shift gears following the Corbin news.

Eovaldi, Lynn among Plan B’s

Now that Corbin is off the board, the Yankees are “engaged” with Nathan Eovaldi and Lance Lynn as potential Plan B rotation options, reports Mark Feinsand. J.A. Happ is also in that group, of course. A week or two ago we heard the Yankees were not among the early suitors for Eovaldi, but this stuff can change in a hurry. For what it’s worth, Joel Sherman says the Yankees are hesitant to reunite with Eovaldi if it takes four years.

I’ve said all I have to say about Eovaldi. Good dude and I hope he gets paid, but I am a hard pass on an enigmatic two-time Tommy John surgery guy who succeeds with max effort velocity. Happ is fine and nothing more in my opinion. Re-signing him would be okay but underwhelming. Lynn? Blah. He had a 4.41 ERA (2.17 FIP) in 54.1 innings with the Yankees this past season — the low FIP is the result of an unsustainably low homer rate (0.33 HR/9 and 4.5% HR/FB) — and I guess he could fit as a swingman. As a full-time starter though? Not interested.

Yankees have interest in Soria

According to Jesse Sanchez, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in veteran reliever Joakim Soria. They’re said to want two relievers to replace David Robertson and Zach Britton. Soria is still only 34 — I would’ve guessed he’s 37 or 38 by now — and this past season he had a 3.12 ERA (2.43 FIP) with a 29.4% strikeout rate in 60.2 innings for the White Sox and Brewers. He was still throwing fastballs by dudes in October too. The stuff remains pretty lively.

The Yankees have been connected to Soria a bunch of times over the years though they never have acquired him. This would not qualify as a sexy pickup, I know, but I’d be cool with signing Soria to a one-year deal or even a lower cost two-year contract. He’d be what, the fourth best reliever in the bullpen? Maybe fifth? He’s fine in that role. Soria is still effective and he’s wily as hell (his new thing is changing arm slots) and he has experience in every relief role imaginable.

Yankees, Brewers have talked Gray

Add another team to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Jon Morosi reports the Yankees have spoken to the Brewers about Gray. Morosi also reiterates the Padres’ interest in Gray and says they’re having “ongoing discussions” with the Yankees. Eleven teams are reportedly in on Sonny and we know eight of them: Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Athletics, Reds, Braves, Rangers, and Twins. There are still three Mystery Teams™ out there.

I’m surprised Gray has not been traded yet but I guess it makes sense for the Yankees to hang on to him until they acquire another starter, even though it seems they’re beyond the point of no return given Brian Cashman’s comments this offseason. Bottom line, if there are truly eleven teams in on Gray — or even just three or four teams — the Yankees are going to get something nifty for him. Not a star prospect or anything, but something better than nothing, which is what you might normally expect for a guy who had as poor a season as Sonny just did.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

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Corbin. (Norm Hall/Getty)

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

Ottavino. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Scouting the ALDS Opposition: Nathan Eovaldi

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Nathan Eovaldi has faced the Yankees three times since joining the Red Sox, and he has been nothing short of dominant. His overall line in those games is 16.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, and 13 K, and it may well have been better had he not been pulled after two effective innings on September 29 (it was effectively a means to keep him stretched-out in a meaningless game). We saw flashes of this sort of dominance before, but it was sporadic at best – and the fact that this has come with the Red Sox makes it even more maddening. But I digress.

Let’s take a look at this new and improved version of Eovaldi.

When Eovaldi last pitched for the Yankees in 2016, all of the talk was about maximizing his newfound splitter. The pitch was, for all intents and purposes, born in 2015, accounting for 9.4% of his offerings; the usage more than doubled in 2016 to 22.9% … and then his elbow went ‘boom.’ To that point, Eovaldi was basically a three-pitch guy, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter. This year, however, we’ve seen the unveiling of another new-ish pitch: a cutter.

As per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi threw a total of 220 cutters from 2011 through 2016; he threw 577 this year. His cutter represented just under a third of his offerings this year, and he threw fewer fastballs and sliders than ever before. And while batters are hitting .252 against the cutter, his four-seamer (.206) and slider (.219) have been at their most effective this year – and that may be attributed to the increased use of a pitch that essentially splits the difference between a four-seamer and a slider.

Eovaldi’s velocity remains elite, too. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH this year, his cutter sat just over 93 MPH, and both his slider and splitter sit in the upper 80s.

So what, if anything, does he do differently against the Yankees?

Eovaldi’s splitter usage jumps out the most. He threw 213 pitches against the Yankees in his three Red Sox appearances, and just 9 of those (or 4.2%) were splitters. Compare that to an average of 12.8% overall, and it seems like a conscious decision by Eovaldi and/or the coaching staff. Those splitters were almost entirely replaced by cutters, which represented 39.0% of his offerings against the Yankees. Between that and his four-seamer, Eovaldi is throwing roughly 80% of his pitches at 93-plus MPH against the Yankees – and it’s been working.

It’s also worth noting that, by FanGraphs’ model, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting the cutter. They ranked 25th in baseball against cutters, losing 7.2 more runs than the average team against it. And by that same metric, Eovaldi had the 9th-best cutter among starting pitchers, just behind CC Sabathia.

All that being said, it’s worth noting that Eovaldi’s approach in his lone start against the Yankees as a member of the Rays was largely the same – and the Yankees knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in 7.1 IP. He improved as the season wore on, to be sure, and that was his fourth start after a nearly two-year layoff, but it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Yankees with him on the mound. And he hasn’t yet faced this fully operational offense in playoff atmosphere Yankee Stadium, either.

To beat the Red Sox in the ALDS, the Yankees will finally have to solve Nathan Eovaldi

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

While I’m sure the move was made with more than the Yankees in mind, the Red Sox acquired a pitcher at the trade deadline who matches up very well with New York. That pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi. The former Yankee was good with the Rays (4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP) and great with the BoSox (3.33 ERA and 2.88 FIP) this season despite a few of those classic Eovaldi blowups.

Eovaldi returned from his second career Tommy John surgery in May and Tampa had him emphasize his cutter, a pitch he first started throwing with the Yankees in 2016, not long before his elbow gave out. With a healthy elbow, Eovaldi started throwing a ton of cutters, and the result was much more success against right-handed batters. The quick numbers:

  • Eovaldi vs. RHB (2014-16): .253/.304/.378 (.299 wOBA) with 18.0 K% and 5.9 BB%
  • Eovaldi vs. RHB (2018): .235/.252/.381 (.268 wOBA) with 23.9 K% and 2.2 BB%

A 31-point improvement in wOBA, not to mention those strikeout and walk gains, is pretty significant. Eovaldi’s always thrown exceptionally hard. Even after his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi’s heater averaged 97.6 mph this season. His fastball was far more hittable than the velocity would lead you to believe though. The cutter gives him something to avoid the barrel.

Four times Eovaldi faced the Yankees this season and the combined result was six runs (five earned) in 23.1 innings. The Yankees hit .173/.218/.272 against him. Yuck. It’s worth looking back at those four games real quick, so let’s do that now.

June 15th: 7.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Deceptive line is deceptive. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs through seven innings — Giancarlo Stanton swatted a two-run home run — before Rays manager Kevin Cash pushed his luck and sent Eovaldi out for the eighth inning. Two soft singles and an intentional walk loaded the bases, then all three inherited runners scored on this:

Cash pushed Eovaldi a little too far in that game and it got out of hand late. Eovaldi held the Yankees to two runs on the Stanton homer through seven innings. Two runs in seven innings is a very good start. The three-run eighth inning makes it look like Eovaldi pitched worse than he actually did.

August 4th: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Total domination. Rick Porcello one-hit the Yankees on 86 pitches (!) the night before and the offense looked no better against Eovaldi. The Yankees did not have their A-lineup out there …

… but still, I’m not sure the A-lineup would’ve hit Eovaldi with the way he threw that afternoon.

September 18th: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Another dominant start, though not to the extent of that August 4th outing. The Yankees had Aaron Judge, they had Andrew McCutchen, and they had Gary Sanchez. It was the A-lineup and Eovaldi still shut the Yankees down across six innings. Considering he’d only thrown 83 pitches in those six innings, I reckon Eovaldi could’ve gone out for the seventh inning as well, but at this point the Red Sox were auditioning middle relievers for the postseason roster, so someone else got the ball.

September 29th: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

A meaningless start. This was a tune-up appearance in the penultimate game of the regular season and Eovaldi was very much going through the motions. And he still struck out four of the eight batters he faced. Also, Eovaldi didn’t show the Yankees the goods. He threw his lowest percentage of cutters in months in this game. The Red Sox knew they could face the Yankees in the ALDS and they didn’t reveal any secrets.

* * *

For all intents and purposes, Eovaldi made three actual starts against the Yankees this season, and he pitched very well in all three. That messy eighth inning on June 15th makes the box score line look a lot worse than how Eovaldi actually pitched. He was very good through seven innings. The August 4th and September 18th starts were dynamite. In three meaningful games against the Yankees this season, Eovaldi was as tough as it gets.

Earlier this week Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Alex Speier the ALDS plan is to use Eovaldi in relief in Game One — or at least have him available in relief for Game One — and then start him in Game Four. That’s an old school baseball move, using your fourth starter in relief on his throw day in Game One. You don’t see that often these days. That’s the plan though. Eovaldi in relief in Game One and then the starter in Game Four.

The Yankees could get dominated by Eovaldi and win the ALDS anyway. It’s possible. It just wouldn’t be easy. The Yankees have a very right-handed lineup and Eovaldi has been very good against righties this year thanks to his new cutter. No, the Yankees shouldn’t put Brett Gardner or Greg Bird in the lineup to get the platoon advantage. Stick with the righties because they’re your best hitters. It’s up to those righties to adjust and have more success against Eovaldi than they did pretty much all season.

Scouting the Trade Market: Nathan Eovaldi returns?

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Ready for more Nasty Nate? (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

With the Mets an improbable trading partner, the Yankees are left with very few options to find top-of-the-line starting pitchers on this summer’s trade market. In all likelihood, the Bombers will have to search on the next tier for a middle-of-the-rotation starter who can stabilize their current group.

Rising towards the top of that next tier of non-aces on the trade market is an old friend: Nathan Eovaldi. Is the Tampa Bay Rays’ right-hander a desirable option for the Yankees? Let’s take a look.

Injury History

Let’s get this out of the way up front. Eovaldi has a track record of elbow injuries. He had his first Tommy John surgery in high school and missed the end of the 2015 season with elbow inflammation. He needed both a second Tommy John procedure as well as surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon to end his 2016 season and knock out his 2017. He also missed the first two months of this season with a procedure to remove loose cartilage in the elbow.

Considering that the surgery and beginning of his rehab for the second TJ were on the Yankees’ dime, they surely know more about Eovaldi’s elbow than most potential suitors. If they’re pursuing him this month, that’s a good sign for where he’s at health-wise.

Current Performance

This may be Nate Eovaldi like we’ve never seen him before. In eight starts for the Rays this season, he’s thrown 48 1/3 innings — a career-best average of six innings a start — and pitched to a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP). He’s struck out 44 batters and walked just six, good for his best strikeout (24.3%) and walk (3.3%) rates of his career.

Nasty Nate has three starts this season of at least six innings with no more than one hit allowed. While the most recent of those was against the Mets, the first two were vs. the Nationals and Athletics, no slouches on the offensive spectrum.

The 28-year-old is tied for the third best K/BB ratio in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched and has the fourth-lowest walk rate, one spot behind Corey Kluber and one spot ahead of Bartolo Colon.

How has he done this? By throwing more balls over the plate. His Zone % has increased from 52.2 to 55.7 percent and his Zone Swing % has gone from 64.0 to 74.1 percent. However, at the same time, his zone contact rate has gone down and his chase rate has gone up. Less contact in the zone while getting more swings (and contact) out of it. He isn’t inducing more swings and misses percentage-wise, but he’s inducing more swings overall.

More swings lead to more strikeouts. Fun fact: Eovaldi has struck out at least five batters in five consecutive starts, a feat he never accomplished in pinstripes.

Eovaldi’s results on balls in play have also looked strong, albeit somewhat suspect. He’s held opponents to an impressive .190 average and .198 BABIP. His groundball rate is down slightly from his time in New York, though it’s still at a healthy 48.8 percent. Exit velocity against isn’t down significantly from 2016, though his launch angle is up considerably from 7.8 to 12.0 degrees. That’s led to a large increase in infield popups. That’s the type of thing you want to see if a pitcher is going to sustain a low BABIP.

Home runs are still an issue for Evo. He’s given up nine so far this year, including four in one start vs. Houston. His HR/FB rate (18.8 percent) is nearly identical to 2016, which was over 10 percent higher than his first season with the Yankees.

Current Stuff

Despite missing a season, Eovaldi is still a flamethrower. He’s third among starters in average fastball velocity at 97.4 mph, which is down 0.5 mph from 2016 but is up from his Marlins days. He actually throws his slider and curveball harder than previously. He has the second fastest average speed on his cutter in baseball behind only Sonny Gray.

As Mike pointed out yesterday, he’s upped his cutter usage significantly. He didn’t throw it at all in 2013-2015 and utilized it just 7.2 percent of the time in 2016. Now it’s his second most-used offering at 26.1 percent. He’s cut down on the splitter Larry Rothschild worked on with him as well as all his offspeed offerings. Here’s a look at him getting a strikeout on the cut-fastball from his most recent start vs. the Mets.

While the cutter usage is easily noticeable, the reason for his success may have as much (if not more) to do with his improved four-seamer. He has lowered the spin rate on the fastball by 183 RPM. He’s getting whiffs on 25.7 percent of four-seamers compared to 14.7 and 17.9 percent of the time in 2015 and ’16, respectively. Hitters have just a .175 BAA and .158 ISO on it vs. .273 BAA and .181 ISO in 2016. Hitters have similar numbers against most of his offspeed offerings according to Statcast, though his slider has been more effective than it has been in six years based on Fangraphs numbers.

Contract Status

Evo is set to become a free agent after this season after spending two years on the Rays’ 40-man roster. He’s playing for $2 million this season, so he’s highly affordable when you consider the Yankees’ luxury tax tightrope.

What Would it Take?

Reports say the Blue Jays’ asking price for J.A. Happ, a fellow rental starter, is too high for the Yankees’ liking right now. That price will surely come down, but the Jays may demand more out of a division rival when they may consider re-signing Happ. However, the Rays may be even more motivated to get a return on Eovaldi, who could get a multi-year deal this winter, and they can’t quite demand a top-notch prospect for someone who’s thrown fewer than 10 starts since coming back from a second Tommy John surgery.

Unlike Cole Hamels, I’d guess a package similar to what the Yankees gave up for Jaime Garcia makes sense for Eovaldi. An upper minors pitcher and a second piece that’s either further away from the majors or with considerably less upside. The Yankees may be able to acquire him with players they’d lose to the Rule 5 draft in December anyway.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

Yes. With any trade, it depends on price. But Eovaldi is one of the few pitchers on the market whose flaws are easy to overlook. Even with natural regression from his sterling start to 2018 leaves you with a reliable back-end of the rotation starter, something the Yankees are lacking. His injury concerns are less of a risk on a rental than acquiring a pitcher with multiple years of control. Furthermore, his rental status makes him cheaper than a pitcher like Sonny Gray was last year.