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Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

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(AP)

Battle of the Bullpens
In an series-opening “bullpen game”, the Yankees gave the Rays a taste of their own medicine with a 4-1 win on Monday. They used eight pitchers to get 27 outs and the results were bueno: two hits, one run and 13 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray was the lone guy that went more than one inning, and he also was the only one that allowed a hit while surrendering the one run. So we had seven pitchers who didn’t give up a hit … sounds like a #FunFact! Yes, the seven “hitless” pitchers is a franchise record for a single game.

And when you add in the fact that each of those seven guys went at least one inning … the Yankees are just the second team in MLB history to have at least seven players allow no hits while each pitching at least one inning in a game. Unsurprisingly, the only other instance came this season — two weeks prior to Monday’s game — when the Angels did it against the Rangers on September 11.

The other important statistical note from this game came in the eighth when Dellin Betances tossed a perfect frame with two groundouts and popout. What, no strikeout? Slacker, Dellin. That snapped his 44-game streak with at least one punchout, the longest streak by a relief pitcher in AL history, and one game shy of the second-longest single-season streak in MLB history set last year by Brewers reliever Corey Knebel. During the streak he struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced and had more than three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed.

El Kracken is Awaken
Gary Sanchez’s bat woke up momentarily on Tuesday, fueling a 9-2 win that moved the Yankees to 37 games above .500, a season-high mark and their most games above the redline since the end of the 2009 regular season (44 games, 103-59).

Sanchez was on base three times, with a walk, home run and a single, and drove in a season-high-tying four runs. Prior to this game, he had just six RBI in 19 games since coming off the DL on September 1.

(AP)

There is no sugar-coating Sanchez’s awful season, but there is one glimmer of optimism if you squint really hard. On the rare occasion that he does get a hit, he makes it count. With his homer on Tuesday, an astounding 56.9 percent (33 of 58) of his hits have gone for extra-bases. That would be the third-highest rate of extra-base hits per hit among the more than 1,000 player-seasons in Yankees history with at least 300 plate appearances. The two ahead of him: Babe Ruth in 1920 (57.6%) and Babe Ruth in 1921 (58.3%).

Luis Severino had a good-but-not-great outing, but he did provide a nice record-breaking note for us Yankeemetricians: His seven strikeouts gave him 450 since the start of 2017, the most ever by a Yankee pitcher in a two-season span. The previous record was set by Ron Guidry, when he struck out 449 guys spanning the 1978-79 seasons.

(USA Today)

Seven is not enough
On the verge of inching closer to homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game next week, the Yankees delivered one of their patented “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games, losing 8-7 on Wednesday after blowing an early 3-0 lead.

Neil Walker put the Yankees on the board first, drilling a three-run homer in the top of the opening frame. After hitting three homers in his first 73 games (225 at-bats), he has eight homers in his last 38 games (116 at-bats). Each of his last five homers have given the Yankees a lead:

David Robertson put the game out of reach when he suffered a rare meltdown in the eighth inning, allowing five of the six batters he faced to reach base, with four of them coming around to score. It’s the first time in more than eight years that he allowed at least four runs while getting no more than one out in a game. That last time he did that was April 13, 2010 against the Angels; and the only other time he did it in his career was during his first month in the big leagues, on July 28, 2008 against the Orioles.

(AP)

Blowout wins are awesome
The Yankees capped off the series in Tampa with an ultra-satisfying 12-1 rout on Thursday, winning their first series at Tropicana Field in two years (September 20-22, 2016).

The bats exploded for 13 hits, including four #toomanyhomers, increasing their season total to 260 dingers. That’s tied with the 2005 Rangers for the second-most in a single season in MLB history and four shy of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Now they get a chance to break the record this weekend … three games at Fenway … oh how sweet that would be.

They pounded the Rays early and often, racing out to an early 4-0 lead thanks to a #MiggyMantle three-run homer in the top of the first inning, his 27th of the season. It also gave him 90 RBI, and combined with his 43 doubles, he has put himself in some elite company. Andujar is one of seven rookies in MLB history to reach each of those totals — 90 RBI, 43 doubles and 27 homers — in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Albert Pujols (2001)
  • Nomar Garciaparra (1997)
  • Tony Oliva (1964)
  • Ted Williams (1939)
  • Joe DiMaggio (1936)
  • Hal Trosky (1934)

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947; Pujols, Garciappara and Oliva — the other three besides Andujar to make this list since 1947 — each took home the ROY trophy in those years.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful vintage performance in (probably) his final appearance of the regular season. He allowed one hit while striking out five over five scoreless innings, before getting ejected in the sixth following a revenge-plunking of Rays catcher Jesus Sucre. That lowered his ERA to 3.65 and upped his strikeout total to 140 this year. Only three other pitchers Yankee history have finished with that many strikeouts and that low an ERA in their age-37 season or older: Roger Clemens (2001), Mike Mussina (2006, 2008) and Hiroki Kuroda (2012, 2013).

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

The Yankees and 2018’s major awards

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

There are five days to go in the regular season and, at some point in the next seven days, the various voting members of the BBWAA will have to submit their ballots for the major awards. Ballots are submitted after the regular season but before the postseason. MVP and Cy Young and all that are regular season awards. The postseason is not a factor.

In recent years the voting body has done a better job handing out the awards, and by that I mean the voting results have aligned closely with my hypothetical ballot. The Yankees have several awards candidates this year — not as many as last year, but definitely a few — and could have someone walk away with some hardware. Let’s break down the awards races with only a handful of regular season games remaining.

Most Valuable Player

Aaron Judge’s wrist injury removed him from the MVP conversation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get some eighth or ninth or tenth place votes, but, as far as being a true MVP candidate, missing two months put an end to that. The AL MVP award will likely go to Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, or J.D. Martinez. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman will get some love as well. Those are the top MVP candidates at the moment.

With Judge out of he mix, the Yankees don’t have a bona fide MVP candidate, which is kinda weird for a team with a chance to win 100+ games. Giancarlo Stanton’s had a good but not great year, Didi Gregorius had a brutal May and has missed time with injuries, Aaron Hicks doesn’t seem high-profile enough, and Luis Severino slumped terribly in the second half. Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres? I bet they get some down ballot votes., especially Andujar.

Unlike last season, when Judge was right there with Jose Altuve, the Yankees don’t have a legitimate MVP candidate this year. They might not even have anyone finish in the top ten of the voting. The last time that happened was 2016. The last time it happened in a year the Yankees made the postseason was … 2015. I would’ve guessed the last time that happened was much further back. Apparently not.

Cy Young

Man, Severino was so good in the first half. He went into the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (2.31), third in FIP (2.74), seventh in strikeout rate (28.7%), sixth in K/BB ratio (4.50), and fourth in WAR (+4.1). The second half slump knocked him down a peg:

  • ERA: 3.39 (9th in AL)
  • FIP: 2.95 (4th)
  • Strikeout rate: 28.2% (8th)
  • K/BB ratio: 4.78 (4th)
  • WAR: +5.7 (5th)

The second half skid doomed Severino’s Cy Young chances. Others like Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole have been so good that Severino might not even get a fifth place vote. (The Cy Young ballot runs five names deep.) Lame, but when you pitch as poorly as Severino did for as long as Severino did, you can’t expect Cy Young votes.

Aside from Severino, I think the only pitcher on the staff with a chance to get a Cy Young vote is Dellin Betances. Masahiro Tanaka labored in the first half, Aroldis Chapman has been hurt and ineffective in the second half, and David Robertson hasn’t had a “reliever who deserves Cy Young attention” season. Betances might’ve. He has received Cy Young votes before — one fifth place vote in 2015, to be precise — and it could happen again. I’d bet against it. Decent chance the Yankees are completely shut out of the Cy Young voting this year.

Rookie of the Year

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Now we’re talking. The Yankees had the Rookie of the Year runner-up two years ago (Gary Sanchez) and the unanimous Rookie of the Year last year (Judge). They could have the Rookie of the Year winner and runner-up this year thanks to Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. The last team with the first and second place finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting is the 2011 Braves with Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman. The last AL team to do it is the 1984 Mariners with Alvin Davis and Mark Langston.

Now here’s where I be a jerk and say Shohei Ohtani is almost certainly going to win Rookie of the Year. And he wouldn’t be an unreasonable pick! Ohtani is hitting .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) with 21 homers in 351 plate appearances, and, before his elbow injury, he threw 51.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 63 strikeouts. That is ridiculously good! The AL rookie WAR leaderboard:

FanGraphs WAR
1. Shohei Ohtani: +3.6
2. Joey Wendle: +3.6
3. Miguel Andujar: +2.6
4. Brad Keller: +2.5
5. Shane Bieber: +2.4
6. Gleyber Torres: +2.1

Baseball Reference WAR
1. Joey Wendle: +4.4
2. Shohei Ohtani: +3.8
3. Brad Keller: +3.6
4. Gleyber Torres: +2.9
5. Jaime Barria: +2.4
6. Miguel Andujar: +2.1

Wendle ain’t winning Rookie of the Year. You have a few weeks to prepare yourself to be angry when Wendle gets a handful of third place votes instead of Andujar or Gleyber, but he’s not winning. Fair or not, there is a narrative component to these awards, and Wendle has zero narrative going for him. He’s a 28-year-old rookie who was designated for assignment over the winter and is getting a WAR boost because the defensive stats still don’t handle multi-position guys well.

Anyway, Ohtani has the numbers and the narrative. He’s been incredible. He’s a top ten hitter on a rate basis and he was very good when on the mound. Doing one thing well is hard. Ohtani is doing both well. Can he overcome the lack of playing time? Andujar has 583 plate appearances. Torres has 465 plate appearances. Ohtani is at 351 plate appearances as a hitter plus 211 batters faced as a pitcher (562 combined). The offensive numbers side-by-side:

  • Ohtani: .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) and 21 homers
  • Andujar: .298/.329/.525 (128 wRC+) and 26 homers
  • Torres: .276/.345/.484 (122 wRC+) and 23 homers

Even with the injury, Ohtani has more than lived up to the hype, and it’s an incredible story. I fully expect him to win Rookie of the Year and I don’t think it would be undeserved. And I expect Andujar and Torres to finish second and third in the voting, in either order. That’s still really cool. I mean, you could rank these three guys in any order and I’m not sure it’d be “wrong.”

There is no shame in finishing behind Ohtani. The Yankees will be the first AL team with two top three finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting since the 2013 Rays (Wil Myers and Chris Archer).

Manager of the Year

Last season only four AL managers received Manager of the Year votes. Two years ago it was six. The year before that it was seven and the year before that it was seven as well. Nearly half the league! This year the Manager of the Year award figures to go one of three managers: Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, or Bob Melvin. The Red Sox are having a historic year and that’ll undoubtedly get Cora votes. The A’s are a surprise contender and that usually equals Manager of the Year votes. The same applies to the Rays and Cash.

As for Aaron Boone, everyone expected the Yankees to be good this season and the Yankees have been good this season, if not underwhelming in the second half. A team expected to be good having a good year — and not a historically great year like the Red Sox — usually doesn’t earn a skipper many Manager of the Year votes. There are 30 Manager of the Year ballots and three spots per ballot. How many of those 90 spots go to Boone? Three or four, tops? I’m not sure he even gets that many. The last Yankees manager to win Manager of the Year was Joe Torre in 1998. That won’t change this year.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Yankees don’t have a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. This usually goes to a guy who missed most (or all) of the previous season with an injury and the Yankees don’t have anyone like that. Maybe Betances would get some Comeback Player of the Year attention? I doubt it. As bad as he was down the stretch last year, he had a 2.64 ERA (3.23 FIP) and was an All-Star last season. My guess is Matt Duffy will be named Comeback Player of the Year considering he’s hitting .294/.360/.366 (106 wRC+) at the moment and played 91 total games from 2016-17 (zero in 2017) due to an Achilles injury.

Gold Gloves

The Gold Glove selection process has improved in recent years — there’s a statistical component now and there doesn’t seem to be as much reliance on reputation — and I’m not sure the Yankees have a Gold Glove candidate. Judge missed too much time and he wouldn’t beat out Betts anyway. Hicks is a good defensive center fielder but also probably no better than the fourth best defensive center fielder in his own division. Gregorius has to contend with Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor. Gardner? Meh. The Yankees’ best hope for a Gold Glove is probably Tanaka. He’s an excellent fielder. But yeah, bot seeing a Gold Glove in the 2018 Yankees’ future.

* * *

As far as the Yankees are concerned, all the intrigue this award season will revolve around Rookie of the Year. They don’t have a serious MVP or Cy Young candidate, but Andujar and Torres are right in the Rookie of the Year mix. Beating out Ohtani won’t be easy. Maybe even impossible! But I do expect those two to finish in the top three of the voting somewhere. Three straight seasons with top Rookie of the Year candidates is pretty cool. Hopefully Justus Sheffield makes it four straight next year.

The Yankees still have some things to accomplish even after clinching a postseason spot

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(Presswire)

Saturday night, the Yankees clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a thrilling walk-off win against Orioles. Well, maybe thrilling isn’t the best way to put it. The game was pretty dull up until Aaron Hicks yanked his walk-off double into the right field corner in the 11th inning. That was fun. The rest of the game? Meh.

Anyway, the Yankees are indeed going back to the postseason. They’re locked into the Wild Card Game because the Red Sox have already clinched the AL East title, so that’s a bummer, but at least the Yankees are in. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. The Yankees will be one of the final ten teams standing. That’s pretty cool.

Now, just because the Yankees are locked into the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean they can coast during this final week of the regular season. Well, they could, but I wouldn’t advise it. There are still some things to accomplish and some boxes to check this week. Here are five.

Clinch homefield advantage

Fun fact: The home team is 5-7 in the Wild Card Game all-time. That said, I can’t imagine any fan wants their team to play on the road in the Wild Card Game. Teams are built for their home ballparks and few teams are built as well for their home ballpark as the Yankees. The home/record records:

Yankees at home: 53-28 (+101 run differential)
Yankees on the road: 43-32 (+64 run differential)

Athletics at home: 50-31 (+59 run differential)
Athletics on the road: 45-31 (+77 run differential)

The Yankees are a good team on the road and a great team at home. And the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The Twins sold at the trade deadline last year and still made the postseason because the rest of the American League stunk. They made the postseason by default. This year’s Athletics are an excellent team and no pushover. The Yankees will need as much help as they can get in that Wild Card Game, and that includes the short porch and the Yankee Stadium crowd. The magic number for homefield advantage is four.

(Also, clinching homefield advantage means avoiding a brutal travel schedule. If the Wild Card Game is in Oakland, the Yankees have have to travel from Boston to Oakland after the end of the regular season, then potentially go right back to Boston if they advance to the ALDS. Making a round trip cross country to play one game? No. Just no.)

Pick a Wild Card Game starter

The Yankees are in a good spot when it comes to picking a starting pitcher for next Wednesday’s Wild Card Game. They have three good candidates in J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka. I would much rather have one great candidate like first half Severino than three good candidates, but I can’t complain. I’ll feel pretty good — as good as you can feel in that situation, anyway — no matter who gets the ball.

“We will pick whoever is best qualified at that time, regardless of the following series,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera over the weekend when asked about the Wild Card Game starter. “It’s all hands on deck for that one game, to find a way to survive it … Whatever is in our best interest, we’ll try to do.”

Two weeks ago RAB readers said Tanaka should start the Wild Card Game. Happ would be a fine choice as well. Severino? If he continues to pitch like he did last time out, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to give the ball to someone else. Whoever it ends up being, the Yankees have to make a decision reasonably soon, and get that pitcher lined up on however many days rest (normal rest? an extra day?) this week.

Get Judge at-bats and Chapman innings

In seven games back in the starting lineup, Judge is 4-for-22 (.182) with six walks (.357 OBP) with seven strikeouts. The plate discipline is still there — the loss makes it easy to forget, but Judge’s ten-pitch battle against Eduardo Rodriguez that turned an 0-2 count into a walk before Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Thursday was a masterful at-bat — but the timing is not. He looks like a hitter who missed closed to two months.

Judge has put 15 balls in play since returning as a hitter and he has more fly balls and line drives (eight) than grounders and pop-ups (seven), so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with much authority. He roped a 112.1 mph line drive in his first at-bat back. Since then he has only five 90+ mph batted balls, and his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph. His spray chart with exit velocities:

Yeah, not great. Judge has swung through some hittable fastballs since returning, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. He had a long layoff and jumping straight from batting practice and simulated games to live MLB pitching ain’t easy. That’s why Judge needs as many at-bats as possible the rest of the season. There’s a delicate balance here because the Yankees don’t want to overload the wrist, but yeah, Judge needs at-bats.

As for Chapman, he’s made three appearances since returning, two good and one not-so-good. His command was nonexistent — similar to Judge, Chapman not having good command after a month on the shelf isn’t surprising — in his first game back, and his velocity was down the last two times out. In fact, his 96.3 mph average fastball velocity Saturday was his slowest average fastball since June 2012.

“I felt good. The speed wasn’t where it usually is, but my command was much better and that’s really important,” said Chapman to Dan Martin over the weekend. “(The velocity being down) doesn’t worry me at all. I know the speed is there. It’s just a matter of getting out there and my getting rhythm back. Maybe after two more outings I’ll be back to being the pitcher I’ve been.”

Seeing Chapman sit mid-90s rather than upper-90s/low-100s can be alarming, though in this case, I’m not worried. He missed a month and is still rebuilding arm strength. Two bullpen sessions and one simulated game wasn’t going to get him back into midseason form. The Yankees have six games remaining and, since Chapman pitched yesterday, it seems he has three appearances remaining at most. He and Judge need reps this last week to get back to where the Yankees need they them to be going into October.

Rest whoever’s hurting

Well, the Yankees were in good shape health-wise up until two days ago. Now Didi Gregorius has torn cartilage in his wrist and Aaron Hicks has a tight hamstring. Both are day-to-day at this point. Gregorius will be reevaluated tomorrow and Hicks is going for an MRI today. If all goes well, both could return to the lineup later this week. I sure hope that happens. Aside from Didi and Hicks, the Yanks are healthy.

Does that mean everyone on the roster is 100%? Oh hell no. No one is 100% in September. Everyone’s nursing something. Stanton’s still dealing with his tight hamstring. Brett Gardner’s been icing his right knee after games on-and-off for a few weeks now. Dellin Betances has that cut on his finger that keeps opening up. He says it doesn’t affect his pitching, but he seems to be bleeding every time he’s on the mound, and that can’t be fun.

Point is, some players are nursing injuries, and if the Yankees can get them some extra rest and extra treatment in hopes of getting them healthy for the postseason, they should do it. There’s a balance that has to be struck, for sure. The Yankees can’t go into hangover mode just yet because they need to secure homefield advantage, but if there’s an opportunity to deal with those aches and pains, they should do it.

Prepare regulars for postseason roles

Inevitably, some players will see their roles changed in October. Lance Lynn is probably going to move to the bullpen, for example. He pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason plenty with the Cardinals, so it’s a role he’s familiar with, but it still would be good to give him a tune-up game in relief before the season ends, you know? You don’t want him doing it for the first time in a potential elimination game.

Gardner had been relegated to bench duty before Hicks got hurt last night, and if Hicks returns later this week, it stands to reason Gardner will be the designated pinch-runner in the postseason. Do you know how long it’s been since Gardner pinch-ran? Last June. He’s pinch-run five times total since 2012. It’s not a role he’s familiar with and it’s not easy to come off the bench cold like that. A few tune-up pinch-running appearances this week would be worthwhile, assuming Hicks returns.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Also, with Gardner in center/on the bench, Andrew McCutchen is now the everyday left fielder, and he has 59 career big league innings in left field. All 59 have come within the last two weeks. He’s still learning the position — McCutchen’s looked fine out there overall but has taken some interesting routes at times, which is to be expected — and the more time the Yankees give him out there, the more comfortable he’ll be.

There are some other minor considerations here as well. Will Greg Bird make the postseason roster, even as a bench bat? If yes, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him some at-bats this final week. Are Chad Green and David Robertson (and Zach Britton?) going to be multi-inning options in the postseason? Making sure they’re sufficiently stretched out seems worthwhile. Little things like this will help get the Yankees ready for October.

* * *

A case can be made the Yankees should give Justus Sheffield a chance to show he belongs on the postseason roster this week, though, realistically, I don’t think there’s enough time for that to happen. Best case scenario this week is three appearances, right? How well would Sheffield have to pitch in those three appearances to get the nod on the postseason roster? There are too many guys ahead of him on the depth chart, I think, but I do hope to see Sheffield pitch a bunch this week.

The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason, so they know they’re in. Now they have to clinch homefield advantage and make sure the Wild Card Game is in New York. They also have to get their players ready for the postseason, which means picking a Wild Card Game starter, getting Judge and Chapman ready, and preparing players for their October roles. The Yankees know they’re going to the postseason. Their work during the regular season isn’t done yet though.

Yankeemetrics: Two not enough, Sox celebrate (Sept. 18-20)

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(USA Today)

Neil Walker, the Clutch Home Run Corker
For at least one day, the Yankees staved off an embarrassing AL East championship watch party in the Bronx as they rallied for a 3-2 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees won despite just three hits, the second time this season they’ve pulled off that feat at Yankee Stadium (the other game was September 1 vs Detroit). The last time they won multiple home games with no more than three hits was 1998.

Before we get to the late-game dramatics, let’s recognize the gutty performance of J.A. Happ, who pitched out of several jams while holding the Red Sox to one unearned across six innings. Happ has a 0.54 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season; that’s the lowest ERA by any AL pitcher against any opponent this season (min. 3 starts and 10 IP).

Down 1-0 in the seventh with two men on base, Neil Walker snatched the hero’s cape as he drilled a 3-2 pitch from Ryan Braiser into the second deck in right field, flipping the score for a 3-1 advantage. It was his third go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later, the most by any Yankee this season. It was the team’s 18th go-ahead home run in the seventh inning or later, the second-most in a season in franchise history, trailing only the 2009 club (21).

That blast was also Walker’s 10th of the season as he became the 11th Yankee to reach double digits in 2018. That ties the major-league record, done by four other teams: 2017 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2015 Astros and 2004 Tigers.

(USA Today)

Luuuuuke and the Return of Severino
The Yankees kept Boston’s celebratory champagne corked for a second night in a row, routing their rival 10-1 on Tuesday. Also, significant is the fact that it kept the Red Sox at 103 wins with 10 games remaining, so that they won’t be able to match the 1998 Yankees 114-win season.

The Bombers beat up on their favorite punching bag, David Price, clobbering three home runs off him while scoring six runs (four earned) in five-plus innings. In four starts against the Yankees this season, Price has a 10.34 ERA over 15 2/3 innings. That would be the highest ERA by a Red Sox pitcher against the Yankees in a single season (min. 4 starts). Oh, and did I mention that Price really really doesn’t like pitching in the Bronx …

Luis Severino took another step forward in his slow climb back to #AceSevy as he overcame a lack of fastball command to mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup, allowing one run across seven strong innings. In contrast to Price, Sevy really really likes pitching against the Red Sox in the Bronx recently:

Miguel Andujar jump-started the dinger parade early with a homer in the second inning to put the Yankees up 1-0. It came on a 1-2 pitch from Price, his 12th homer when behind in the count, which leads all major-league players this season. The solo blast was also his 25th of the season, giving the Yankees a MLB-best four players with at least 25 homers this season.

Even more impressive is Andujar’s nearly unprecedented combo of two-baggers and longballs this season.

  • He is one of five AL rookies, aged 23 or younger, to hit at least 25 homers and 40 doubles. The other four: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Ted Williams (1939), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Hal Trosky (1934).
  • And he is the only rookie third baseman (at least 50% of games played at the position) in MLB history to reach those totals in a season.


Luke Voit stole the headlines, though, with a monster 4-for-4, 3-RBI night that included two homers off Price. In 70 games with the Cardinals, Voit never hit more than one homer in a game and never had more than two hits in any game. In 29 games with the Yankees, he already has two multi-homer performances and three games with at least three hits. And to celebrate the huge performance by the chest-hair-pimping first basemen, we’ll give him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series. Here is the list of Yankees with at least four hits, four runs scored and three RBI in a game against the Red Sox

  • Luke Voit (Sept. 19, 2018)
  • Graig Nettles (Sept. 29, 1976)
  • Hank Bauer (May 10, 1952)
  • Lou Gehrig (Sept. 23, 1933)
  • Babe Ruth (Sept. 28, 1923)

All good things come to an end
It finally happened. Needing a sweep to prevent a cruel division-clinching party by their blood rival at The Stadium, the Yankees snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they allowed the Red Sox to rally late for a 11-6 victory. This is the Red Sox 10th AL East title in the Divisional Era (since 1969) and the first time they’ve clinched it with a win against the Yankees.

(Newsday)

Masahiro Tanaka, coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, was hit hard by the Red Sox lineup early and often, giving up four runs in the first three innings and got the hook with no outs in the fifth. This continued a string of poor performances against the Red Sox this season: in four starts, he has a 7.58 ERA with 29 hits and six home runs allowed over 19 innings pitched.

With one swing of the bat in the second inning, Luke Voit set two home run records when he bashed a 93-mph pitch deep over the center-field wall. It was his 10th homer in pinstripes and he became the 12th Yankee this season with double-digit dingers, the most such players for any team in MLB history. The two-run blast was also the Bombers’ 246th home run in 2018, setting a new single-season franchise record.

Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his slump with a grand slam in the fourth inning that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. Yes, the lead would disappear quickly, but he still deserves a shout-out, so here’s a #FunFact stat to chew on:

As mentioned above, that advantage lasted only a couple innings as Chad Green surrendered a game-tying homer to Jackie Bradley Jr leading off the seventh. Green has allowed nine homers in 71 2/3 innings this season; entering 2018, he had given up four homers in 76 1/3 career innings as a reliever.

Dellin Betances tried to clean up Green’s mess in the seventh, but after loading the bases, he coughed up a tie-breaking sac fly to Xander Bogaerts. It was the first sac fly allowed by Betances in more than two years (August 30, 2016 vs Royals).

The Yanks are fighting for the top wildcard spot because their best players haven’t been at their best for weeks

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Eleven losses in the last 19 games and recent series losses to the White Sox, Twins, and Blue Jays. The White Sox and Blue Jays series were at home too. The Yankees are 29-25 since the All-Star break and during that time they’ve a) bombed out of the AL East race, and b) seen their lead on the top wildcard spot trimmed from eight games to 1.5 games. It’s three games in the loss column when you include the tiebreaker, if that makes you feel better.

This weekend’s series loss the Blue Jays was not a bummer out-of-nowhere series loss like that Texas series back in May. It was more of the same from a generally underperforming Yankees squad that has become more and more lifeless as the season has progressed, to point where they are now thoroughly unexciting even while threatening the single-season home run record. How do you manage that? The 2018 Yankees have, somehow.

“You don’t want to go through it, especially when it’s late like this, but we’ve still got plenty of baseball left to get hot. It’s all about what team is hot,” said Aaron Judge, forever the optimist, to Bryan Hoch following yesterday’s game. “If we can get hot here in the last two weeks and take that into the playoffs, we’re going to be in a good position.”

The Yankees have used up pretty much the entire cushion they built in the first half, and now they’re in a mad dash to the finish to clinch homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. They have 13 games remaining, ten of which will be played against the Rays (four games) and Red Sox (six games). The Athletics, meanwhile, have 12 games remaining. They’ll play nine of them against the Twins (three games) and Angels (six games). Yikes.

The Yankees are where they are right now because, quite simply, their best players have not had the seasons expected of them. Judge gets a pass here because he was so good before the fluke wrist injury that has sidelined him two months now. Everyone else though? This isn’t what anyone expected:

  • Gary Sanchez: Hitting .188/.284/.408 (87 wRC+) in 334 plate appearances overall and is 9-for-47 (.191) since returning from the disabled list (the second time).
  • Luis Severino: A 3.46 ERA (2.99 FIP) in 179.1 innings isn’t bad by any means, but he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball (6.35 ERA) since the All-Star break.
  • Giancarlo Stanton: Not counting his partial rookie year, he’s on pace for his third worst AVG (.265), second worst OBP (.341), third worst SLG (.501), and second worst wRC+ (125 wRC+).

Dellin Betances, the team’s best reliever, has been generally awesome this season but has had some hiccups lately, including yesterday. Didi Gregorius has been great overall despite that ugly May and the recent heel injury. Masahiro Tanaka has been very good overall and ace-like for more than two months now. The first half wasn’t pretty though. Sonny Gray? Oy vey. Don’t even get me started on him.

On one hand, the fact the Yankees are 91-58 despite Sanchez being terrible, Severino’s second half, Stanton falling far short of expectations, and all that other stuff tells you how strong the rest of the roster has been. Where would the Yankees be without Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres? Good gravy. I don’t even want to think about it. Aaron Hicks, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder, J.A. Happ … they’ve all helped pick up the slack.

On the other hand, the American League is so top heavy and competitive — the four best records in baseball belong to AL teams, and the Indians are not one of those four despite already clinching the AL Central title — that the Yankees have no shot at doing anything meaningful in the postseason without getting more from their stars. They might not host the Wild Card Game without getting more from those guys.

Whose fault is it the Yankees’ top players are underperforming? The blame should always start with the players. In Severino’s case, it’s possible he’s feeling the effects of last year’s career-high workload. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Stanton is presumably dealing with a ton of pressure in his first season with the team, which would be a lame excuse, but an excuse nonetheless. Gary? He doesn’t have an excuse. Unless he’s been hiding an injury and playing hurt all year, there’s no good reason for him to have a season like this.

Of course, there were times Sanchez and Severino and Stanton produced at a truly elite rate earlier this year. Severino was brilliant in the first half. Stanton hit .288/.360/.549 (142 wRC+) from May 1st through August 31st and did much of that with one good hamstring. Sanchez hit .292/.396/.681 (185 wRC+) during a 31-game span from mid-April through mid-May. That success was a long time ago though. Same for Severino.

Look around at the other top AL contenders and they have key players having the best seasons of their career. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez for the Red Sox. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez with the Indians. Alex Bregman with the Astros. Matt Chapman with the Athletics. Not necessarily career years, those guys might get even better going forward — that is especially true for Lindor, Bregman, and Chapman — but this is their best season to date.

The Yankees don’t have a single player like that. Maybe Gregorius and Hicks? I mean, yeah, definitely Gregorius and Hicks, but they’ve been more comfortably above-average than star-caliber. Imagine how good the Yankees would be if Sanchez and Stanton were performing up to their career norms, and Didi and Hicks were doing what they’re doing? Imagine how much easier it would be to deal with Severino’s struggles if Gray wasn’t a mess?

What’s done is done. Can’t go back and change it. The only thing the Yankees can do it be better going forward, and the first step in being a better team is getting the best players to actually be the best players. We all love Andujar and Gleyber. Things were much better when they were like the fourth and fifth best players on the team though, not the best and second best. Those two have done a lot of heavy lifting lately. The Yankees’ best players haven’t played up to snuff for weeks now, in some cases months, and the result is a small margin for error in the standings.

“We’ve got to play better, clearly. We’re not playing our best right now, but the history of this game is littered with stories of teams that went into the playoffs in different scenarios — limping, playing great — the bottom line is you’ve got to be playing right when it counts,” said Aaron Boone to Coley Harvey following yesterday’s game. “Don’t mistake that for, ‘This is okay.’ Still believe at my core that we have everyone in that room to do something special. We’re getting pushed around a little bit right now because it’s difficult and we’re not quite at our best. This thing ain’t even close to done.”

Poll: The 2018 Wild Card Game Starter

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(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Barring a stunning collapse by either the Red Sox or Yankees, the Yankees will play in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game on Wednesday, October 3rd. That’s three weeks from yesterday. The Yankees lost the 2015 Wild Card Game to the Astros and won the 2017 Wild Card Game against the Twins, so this won’t be their first wildcard rodeo. They’ve been through it before.

The Yankees will inevitably face the Athletics in the Wild Card Game — Oakland is 8.5 games up on the Mariners for a postseason spot, so yeah — which will be a daunting challenge, but winning the World Series ain’t easy. You’ve got to beat several good teams to do it and the Athletics are a very good team. You can write it in pen at this point: Yankees vs. Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game. Where? That is still up in the air.

At some point between now and then the Yankees (and A’s) will have to select a Wild Card Game starter and get that pitcher lined up for October 3rd. With Sean Manaea out, I assume the A’s will go with Mike Fiers, but we’ll see. The Yankees? It’s a bit less clear. Given Lance Lynn’s overall body of work, I think we can remove him from consideration. The other four starters all have a case to get the nod in the Wild Card Game. Let’s review.

J.A. Happ

Career Postseason: 3.72 ERA (4.06 FIP) in 19.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

The case for Happ: Since coming over at the trade deadline, Happ has been everything the Yankees could’ve possibly wanted. Steady, reliable, low maintenance. He has a 2.70 ERA (4.45 FIP) with 22.9% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in eight starts and 46.2 innings with the Yankees, and, just last week, he held the A’s to one run in six innings and was dominant. Happ may not be a true top of the rotation starter like Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, but he’s a damn good pitcher, and I don’t get the sense the pressure of the postseason will get to him at all.

The case against Happ: Well, Happ did face the Athletics just last week, so they’d be seeing him for the second time in less than a month on Wild Card Game night. The more times you see a pitcher, especially several appearances close together, the more it becomes advantage hitter. The A’s know what Happ is about. They just saw him and have a firsthand scouting report. Also, I should note Happ is a fly ball pitcher (42.0% grounders) and the A’s have hit the third most home runs in MLB (200). That might not mix well.

CC Sabathia

Career Postseason: 4.20 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 126.1 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 1 GS, 3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HR

The case for Sabathia: First of all, Sabathia’s been really good this year! I feel like we’re not appreciating enough the fact he has a 3.54 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 139.2 innings on one good knee. Sabathia has the third highest soft contact rate (24.6%) and the eighth lowest hard contact rate (28.9%) in baseball. Hitters have had a hard time squaring him up and that has been the case for nearly three years now. And we know Sabathia won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. He’s pitched in a lot of big games over the years. There’s a reason the Yankees picked him to start ALDS Game Five and ALDS Game Seven last year. Game Five went great. Game Seven … not so much. But credit the Astros. They’re pretty good.

The case against Sabathia: The A’s saw Sabathia just last week and roughed him up pretty good. Also, Sabathia has been just okay since returning from the disabled list last month, pitching to a 4.87 ERA (2.03 FIP) in four starts and 20.1 innings. The disaster start against in Oakland is skewing that a bit (3.71 ERA in the other three starts), but still, the outs and 1-2-3 innings haven’t come quite as easily the last three or four weeks.

Luis Severino

Career Postseason: 5.63 ERA (7.22 FIP) in 16 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: 2 GS, 8.2 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 B, 10 K, 0 HR

(Rich Schultz/Getty)

The case for Severino: Severino is the most talented pitcher in the rotation. He’s the best bet to limit balls in play and he is probably the team’s best chance at a dominant Wild Card Game start. The guy didn’t take a 2.31 ERA (2.75 FIP) into the All-Star break by accident. Severino pitched at a similar level last season. If the Yankees want someone who can overpower the Athletics and avoid balls in play, Severino is their best bet. When he’s right, he’s among the best in the sport.

The case against Severino: The last two months can not be ignored. Severino has lost his slider and his command has wavered, and, as a result, he has a 6.34 ERA (4.35 FIP) in his last 12 starts and 61 innings, and that includes last night’s rebound start against the Twins. His worst outing of the season came last week, against the same A’s team he’d face in the Wild Card Game. Severino was arguably the best pitcher in the league in the first half. He has inarguably been one of the worst in the second half. As good as his overall body of work is since the start of last season, you can’t ignore what’s right in front of you. Severino has been thoroughly ineffective since early July. Perhaps last night was a #turningpoint. We’ll have to wait and see.

Masahiro Tanaka

Career Postseason: 1.44 ERA (3.23 FIP) in 25 innings
2018 vs. Athletics: N/A

The case for Tanaka: Wow has Tanaka been good lately. He’s been the opposite of Severino. He started poorly and is finishing very well. Tanaka has a 2.35 ERA (2.93 FIP) with great strikeout (25.9%), walk (4.3%), and ground ball (50.9%) rates in his last ten starts and 65 innings. Happ has been very good overall. Tanaka has been the Yankees’ best starter for more than two months now. Also, Tanaka hasn’t faced the A’s this season! Oakland’s hitters would be going in blind. And who could forget what he did in the postseason last year? There is no moment too big for him.

The case against Tanaka: For starters, Tanaka remains very home run prone (1.5 HR/9), and the A’s can hit the ball out of the park. Their 200 home runs are second in the American League to the Yankees (234). Secondly, Tanaka excels by getting hitters to chase out of the zone. He leads all pitchers in chase rate this year (40.1%). He led all pitchers in chase rate last year (42.1%). That’s what Tanaka does. He gets hitter to expand the zone. The Athletics, however, do not chase out of the zone. Their team 27.6% chase rate is the lowest in baseball. Only the Dodgers (26.9%) chase less. They’re the type of offense that could lay off those splitters and sliders, and back Tanaka into bad counts.

* * *

You could make the case the Yankees should just bullpen game the Wild Card Game. That might be tough to do without an effective Aroldis Chapman, however. Two innings from Jonathan Holder, two innings from Chad Green, then cobble together five innings from David Robertson, Zach Britton, and Dellin Betances? Chapman returning and being effective would make the bullpen game plan a little more realistic.

The Yankees have not given any indication they will bullpen game the Wild Card Game — they effectively bullpen gamed it last year, and when they got to ALDS, their bullpen was fried for the first few games — and I’m cool with that. Start an actual starter and adjust as necessary on the fly. Again, that’s what the Yankees did last year. If they get four or five good innings from the starter before going to the bullpen, great! That’d be ideal.

Given the remaining schedule, Severino is currently lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest. That doesn’t mean much though. There’s still time to rearrange things and get Tanaka or Severino or Sabathia lined up for that day on normal rest, with extra rest, whatever. The Yankees have about a week, a week and a half to really nail this down. Anyway, the Wild Card Game starter is begging for a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who should start the 2018 Wild Card Game?
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